ClimTrans2050
"ClimTrans2050"
Open source model for analysing Austria’s
transition to a low carbon society by 2050 –
A research plan
Expert Workshop
4th March 2016, WIFO
ClimTrans2050
Objectives of the workshop

Present the project framework

Raise interest for extended modelling framework

Present the corner stones of the draft research plan

Present first implementation steps on web-based
modelling platform

Discuss draft research plan with experts
ClimTrans2050
ClimTrans2050 project team

Development of an operational framework and
research plan for an open source model

The project team

WIFO: Claudia Kettner, Angela Köppl, Stefan Schleicher,
Katharina Köberl, Christian Hofer

Wegener Center: Gabriel Bachner, Thomas Schinko,
Karl Steininger

UBA: Jürgen Schneider, Ilse Schindler, Thomas Krutzler,
Thomas Gallauner

IIASA: Matthias Jonas, Piotr Żebrowski
ClimTrans2050
Why a research plan for an
open source model?

Policy needs guidance for long run transition

Available tools to capture these processes not sufficient

Application of existing economic models to the very long
run faces limitations

Breakthrough technologies and changes in the capital
stock need to be addressed

Analysis of radical vs. incremental path changes

Detailed modelling of energy, emissions and economic
structures – deepened structural modelling
The structure of
ClimTrans2050
ClimTrans2050
Task 4
Task 1
Task 2
Task 3
Evaluating
current
modeling
practices
Designing a
research plan
for an open
source model
Identifying
knowledge
gaps and
steps towards
an operational
model
Surveying the
current generation
of modeling tools as
to their suitability for
long-term climate
policy design by
checking e.g.
• time horizon
• conceptual
assumptions
• treatment of
technologies
Transgressing
current modeling
practices by
developing a
structure for an
open source tool
that focuses on
• an operational
research plan
• 2050 transition
strategies
• the global context
The requirements
for a full-scale
modeling tool are
identified by
emphasizing issues
of
• knowledge gaps
• institutional and
behavioral aspects
• different policy
mechanism
designs
Interaction with
the research
community
and project
management
All tasks will involve a
close interaction with
the research
community and policy
stakeholders by
• offering a web-based
knowledge platform
• usable model
components
• feedback workshops
ClimTrans2050
Content of the
ClimTrans2050 Research Plan (1)

A new perspective for modelling activities in view of a
2050 horizon

A modelling framework that is able to analyse transition
processes

A new perspective on energy, emissions and economic
structures

Functionalities (relating to housing, mobility, nutrition,
etc.) as guiding principle for modelling

Focus on stocks and flows that together supply
functionalities

Embedding of national emission target paths consistently
into global context
ClimTrans2050

Deepened structural modelling framework along a three
tier approach
•

Content of the
ClimTrans2050 Research Plan(2)
Physical, economic and institutional dimension
Web-based platform for disseminating relevant information
and exemplary model modules to stakeholders and the
research community

Identification and guidance for the next research steps

following the three tier approach
ClimTrans2050
Mindset: Functionalities and the
three tier approach

Functionalities (e.g. nutrition, shelter, mobility) are the outcome of the
interaction of stocks (e.g. buildings and machinery) and flows (e.g.
energy, materials)

The concept of functionalities


aims at capturing the ultimate purpose of economic activities

emphasises the interaction between stocks and flows

allows to capture the impact in the investment and operating phase

allows to capture details in technologies
The concept of functionalities is made operational along three tiers

Tier 1 is dealing with the physical structure of the system that finally
determines the amount of emissions

Tier 2: techno-economic tier (capital stocks and flows; availability of
technologies, investment and operating costs)

Tier 3: considers the embedding of tier 1 and tier 2 into an institutional
setting (instruments, mechanisms, behavioural change)
Stock-flow interactions for
providing functionalities
ClimTrans2050
resource
flow
r
A
Δr
functionality
S(r, K)
B
ΔK
capital stock &
infrastructure
K
ClimTrans2050
Deepened Structural Modelling
for the Three Tiers Approach
Deepened structural modeling
The sGAIN approach
Final consumption
for functionalities
Stock of
Resources
Natural resources:
renewable, exhaustible,
soil, air, water
Man-made resources:
reproducible, human,
social
Functionalities
shelter, nutrition
mobility, communication
Flow of
Reproducibles
Environmental impact
goods and services for
functionalities
via consumption
and for resources
via investments
Intermediate
consumption
for functionalities
Investments
for replacement, expansion,
recycling, regeneration of
resources
ClimTrans2050
Thank you for your attention