The Economic Conditions
for 4 th Generation District
Heating
P h D S e m i n a r, C o p e n h a g e n , N o v e m b e r 2 0 1 5
Søren Djørup, [email protected]
Content
1) Plan for PhD Research
2) Results and Potential Results
3) Collaboration and Conference 2016
4DH – 2
Department of Development and Planning
AALBORG UNIVERSITY
PLAN FOR PHD RESEARCH
Plan of PhD Research
“District heating is here to stay but district heating has to
change”
What has to stay and what has to change in my area of district
heating research?
4DH – 4
Department of Development and Planning
AALBORG UNIVERSITY
The role of district heating in a smart energy system
4DH – 5
Department of Development and Planning
AALBORG UNIVERSITY
Plan of PhD Research
What has to stay?
CHP units
What has to change?
Promote electricity to heat
Minimise biomass use
Means for keeping and changing: Economic, institutional and
organisational initiatives
4DH – 6
Department of Development and Planning
AALBORG UNIVERSITY
Realising the technical potentials
Behind this diagram we have a lot of independent and widespread
economic decision makers.
4DH – 7
Department of Development and Planning
AALBORG UNIVERSITY
Decision making in the current system 1: CHP is
disappearing
Production form in Danish District Heating
40,0
35,0
30,0
PJ
25,0
Kraftvarme (Decentrale)
20,0
Kedel
15,0
10,0
5,0
0,0
1990
'95
'00
'05
'10
4DH – 8
Department of Development and Planning
AALBORG UNIVERSITY
'13
Decision making in the current system 2: Heat pumps
are not entering
Production from Heat Pumps (TJ)
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
-
Heat Pump productions
in Danish district heating
(TJ)
2000
2005
2010
2013
4DH – 9
Department of Development and Planning
AALBORG UNIVERSITY
Decision making in the current system 3: Biomass
use is drastically increasing
Use of Biomass (TJ)
45 000
40 000
35 000
30 000
25 000
20 000
15 000
10 000
5 000
-
Biomass use in Danish
district heating (TJ)
2000
2005
2010
2013
4DH – 10
Department of Development and Planning
AALBORG UNIVERSITY
How to keep and change
The tasks of keeping some elements and changing others have one
thing in common: It requires (re) investments .
The approach in this PhD project is structured around the investment
decision.
We need an economic, institutional and organisational structure that
promotes the right investment decisions at plant level .
4DH – 11
Department of Development and Planning
AALBORG UNIVERSITY
The Investment Decision in Danish District Heating:
Stages and Key Elements
Business economic
conditions
• Taxes
• Subsidies
• Rules
Socio-economic
calculations
• Heat Supply Act
• CBA practise
• Economic Theory
4DH – 12
Department of Development and Planning
AALBORG UNIVERSITY
Investment realised
POTENTIAL RESULTS
Socio-economic
calculations
Results: Understanding complex relations and
Investment realised
formulating concrete proposals
Business economic
conditions
• Revised energy tax on electricity
• PSO 2.0
• Equality between biomass and wind
• How theory works in practice
• Proposals for revisions in calculation procedure
• CO2 price
4DH – 14
Department of Development and Planning
AALBORG UNIVERSITY
COLLABORATION AND ABSTRACT
3. Collaboration and Conference 2016
Collaboration:
Grøn Energi and (former) PhD fellow Peter Sorknæs: Meetings and
discussions on proposals and modelling.
Ideas for an abstract at the next conference:
The most interesting conclusions from my study…
My PhD ends by September 2016.
4DH – 16
Department of Development and Planning
AALBORG UNIVERSITY
Søren Djørup, email:
[email protected]