Basic Model of Health Care Systems

Basic Model of Health Care Systems
Olshansky, W.
IIASA Working Paper
WP-76-020
1976
Olshansky, W. (1976) Basic Model of Health Care Systems. IIASA Working Paper. IIASA, Laxenburg, Austria, WP-76-020
Copyright © 1976 by the author(s). http://pure.iiasa.ac.at/561/
Working Papers on work of the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis receive only limited review. Views or
opinions expressed herein do not necessarily represent those of the Institute, its National Member Organizations, or other
organizations supporting the work. All rights reserved. Permission to make digital or hard copies of all or part of this work
for personal or classroom use is granted without fee provided that copies are not made or distributed for profit or commercial
advantage. All copies must bear this notice and the full citation on the first page. For other purposes, to republish, to post on
servers or to redistribute to lists, permission must be sought by contacting [email protected]
BASIC MODEL OF HEALTH CARE SYSTEMS
Wladyslaw Olshansky
June 1976
WP-76-20
Working Papers are internal publications intended for circulation within the
Institute only. Opinions or views contained herein are solely those of the
author.
2361
Laxenburg
Austria
I
International Institute for Applied Systems Ana lysis
Basic Model of Health Care System
The philosophy of health care system modelling is described
in [1,2,3] and elsewhere.
The first version of a mathematical model of health care
system at IIASA's Bio-Medical Project was worked out by
Dr. A. Klementiev.
It consisted of a population block and ele-
ments for patient treatment and population screening.
One of the goals of this model was to examine the possibility
of redistributing health care resources between treatment and
screening.
The resources of health care system--personnel, equipment,
etc.--were generalized and represented by "the total number of
doctors in practice".
The model was constructed in somewhat general terms and
lacked the elaboration of its "fine structure" to become an
operating model.
This work is a natural continuation of the
work on modelling commenced in [3] and [4].
Before elaborating an operating model it is necessary to
develop a basic model that should later grow upon itself the
needed details to become an operating model.
The first step in
this direction was the working out of the model's demographic
subsystem which would represent population aging dynamics.
This
subsystem is described in [4].
The structure of the basic model is shown in Figure 1:
1.
Population prevalence dynamics.
2.
pッーオャ。エゥッセ
3.
Population aging update as interface between (1) and (2).
4.
Treatment section.
5.
Screening section.
6.
Request for admission into health care system.
aging dynamics.
In this model the following categorization of diseases
is accepted.
di.seases [3]:
It is presumed that there are three kinds of
-2-
1.
Diseases of the degenerative
エセ
have distinctly iden-
tified phases and lead to gradual deterioration and death.
Ex-
amples of this type of disease are cancer, hypertension, TBC,
syphilis and alcoholism.
diseases:
We consider three phases of such
phases A, Band C.
Phase C may lead to disease-
specific death.
2.
Acute diseases--accidents, appendicitis, etc.
3.
"Non-diseases" that can be eradicated by vaccination--
small-pox, polio, diptheritis, etc.
Prevalence
subsystem
Aging
update
Population
aging
routine
Treatment
Screening
Management
Figure 1.
The Schematic of the Basic Model of
the Health Care System
The model at its present stage is being elaborated for a
certain disease of Type 1.
Description of Prevalence Dynamics
The population is divided into three categories:
people (HP), latent sick (LS) and registered sick (RS).
healthy
Each
category of sickness is divided into three groups with regard
to phase of the disease.
The HP may become latent sick in Phase A with a definite
morbidity rate.
The LS cannot spontaneously recover.
They
have either to be admitted for treatment or to deteriorate
until death occurs.
-3-
The RS receive treatment.
Phase A corresponds to outpatients,
Phase B to inpatients, and Phase C to invalids with irreversible
disabilities.
Phase A RS may recover and become HP while Phase B RS cannot immediately recover but may undergo remission and become
Phase A RS.
Phase C RS deteriorate until death.
Disease-specific death rate in Phase C LS is supposed to
be greater than that in Phase C RS, and both - greater than the
non-specific death rate.
The HP and LS are the subjects of medical screening to
identify sick persons.
There is also a natural demand for
treatment from those LS who become aware of their disease.
The sick detected by screening plus people who have become
aware of their illness by themselves form the treatment demand
rate for given phases of the disease.
This pattern of prevalence dynamics seenlS to be good as a
first approximation.
It may be subsequently refined in further
development of the operating model.
Accumulation and flow patterns for different categories of
the population can be described by ordinary differential equations
which can be easily entered into a computer.
Health Care Activities
Health care resources are represented by the number of
physicians.
Health care resources (doctors) should be redistributed
according to the existing RS distribution profile for different
phases of the disease.
This redistribution may be controlled
by HCS managers and usually occurs after a certain delay.
The number of sick (PCTD) that doctors serving different
phases of the disease can treat is determined by standard workloads (SWL) set either by the authorities or by other means.
If the number of patients that can be treated by doctors
(PCTD) is greater than the number of RS in a given phase of a
disease, the difference between these two figures can be admitted
to health care system from the LS forming treatment demand rate.
-4-
People admitted to health care determine the real admission
rate (REAR).
This may be equal to zero if there are less PCTD
than RS for a given phase of a disease.
In this case the doctors
(i.e. health care resources) are overloaded, and the health care
system is able to function due to its inherent resilience.
As stated above, the treatment demand rate is composed of
three components:
sick detected by screening carried out by
doctors, screening carried out by automated equipment, and
natural treatment demand.
The natural treatment demand is a function of sanitary
education, which is an important aspect of any prophylaxis
measures.
Automated screening is more efficient as well as more expensive than screening done by physicians.
To provide for better detection of LS, health care managers
should increase investments in automated screening equipment and
select the best possible proportion between time doctors spend
in screening and that they spend in treatment.
If this proportion is selected incorrectly (for example, if
not enough resources are given to screening programs) then all
the LS will very quickly pass down to Phase C illness which is
an incurable, high death rate state.
If at the other extreme all resources were to go into detection, then the detected sick would stay in line for admission-admission which would never occur.
In this case the RS would
not be treated and would never recover.
One of the main reasons for playing games with this model
is to determine the golden mean for this kind of situation.
The
optimal solution here may well be some kind of impulse regime for
screening.
Aging Update
All that was said above about dynamics still disregards
population aging.
The described pattern corresponds to a cer-
tain age stratum.
The real problem now is how to introduce up-
dates for aging.
-5-
It was decided to run in parallel prevalence dynamics equations and the population aging routine, the latter described in
[4], both subsystems of the model being divided into equivalent
sex-age strata and the prevalence subsystem strata being periodically fed with updates from the aging routine structure.
Due to the fact that the sick people with a given disease
are usually just a small fraction of the total population and
due to the conservative nature of changes in sex-age structure,
the aging routine is run less frequently, say, in time increments
equal to one year.
The time increments in the prevalence subsystem are set at
0.2 year because of the need to trace out transient effects
affected by health care policies.
Thus the basic model operates in the following mode:
- one run of the aging routine is followed by five runs of
the prevalence equations--one year passes; then one more run of
the aging routine and five runs of the prevalence equations-one more year passes; and so forth.
Each year any given sex-age stratum in the aging routine
loses some people due to aging and their transfer into another
stratum, and gains some people from a "previous stratum".
The
difference between the numbers of these people for a given
stratum constitutes a yearly aging update for the stratum.
In more technical terms, these updates are recalculated by
special subroutines and added to those people contained in each
stratum of each phase of the disease in each step of integration
of the prevalence equations.
A yearly "immigration" for a specific phase of a given
stratum is equal to the fraction of people in this phase of a
"previous stratum"
times the portion (one-fifth) of yearly
"immigration into this stratum of the aging routine.
"emigration"
A yearly
for a phase of the stratum is equal to the fraction
of people in this phase of this stratum times the same portion
(one-fifth) of yearly "emigration" from the considered stratum
of the aging routine.
The stratum update is the difference
between these "immigration" and "emigration" figures.
-6-
Such a simple interpolation taking equal portions o£ an
aging "migration" in updates may be erroneous.
Work with the
basic model will clarify this matter.
Conclusions
A FORTRAN program for this basic model has been written and
debugged.
The problem now is to compile an array of test data.
The first runs with primitive test data are shown in Appendix 3.
After finishing the implementation of inner feedbacks, the
time will come to try various decision-makins options.
The flow chart of the basic model in terms of system
dynamics is shown in Figure 2.
The variables and equations
are presented in Appendices 1 and 2.
(HAGE)
/-----------=
/
セKL q セ
セ
q<:-«)
/
Mセ
<J«'
I / /;
/
( .
/
/
/
/
/
\
-,-
_OS
J.
-
/",.-
I
\ '?
\
I
\
I
\
I
I.
ndr セ
t\ セ . . . . . -r-/
セ
(RAGE (B»
I
/./
'!..
OSPR
セ
I
/ / /./
e-- セM
(RAGE (A»
/
/
セ
イN M セ M T Zalsセc[}r
MR
/
Lセ
\
\
-:e
L_/ _
ADMITTANCE
\
\
\
セ
\'
- - ....................
\
\ - - - - 1--......................
セo ⦅
-f
/ I
I I
- i - - ---t-f--I
1TFRAC
- ------ --------'-'0--...:::----- -
---
SCREENING
セM
..... ".....
Bセrft
セ
"
"
.........
"
----
/
I"
I
/
/
--
MANAGEMENT
Figure 2
_
_
..J I /
/
TREATMENT
I
-...)
I
-8-
Acknowledgements
This work was discussed in detail with Alexandre Klementiev.
Peter Fleissner happened to squash a pair of bugs in the program.
I am also thankful to James Curry, William Webb and Mark Pearson,
who helped me saddle the PDP.
I have also to acknowledge my thanks to GUnther Fischer, who
issued a fine lineprinter plotting routine [S], which is very
simple to be employed by any user.
All comments are welcome and should be directed to the
IIASA Bio-Medical Group.
-9-
REFERENCES
Systems Aspects of Health Planning, Bailey, N.T.J., and
M. Thompson, eds., n ッ セ エ ィ
Holland/American Elsevier,
Amsterdam, 1975.
[2]
Kiselev, A.
A Systems Approach to Health Care, RM-75-31,
International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis,
Laxenburg, Austria, 1975.
[3]
Venediktov, D., et al.
Health Care: A Systems Approach,
CP-76,International Institute for Applied Systems
Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria, 1976, forthcoming.
[4 ]
Klementiev, A.A.
A Computer Method for_projecting a
Population's Sex-Age Structure, RM-76-36, International
Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg,
Austria, 1976.
[5 ]
Fischer, G. Multilevel Computer Model of World Development
System - Part II, Internal Paper, International
Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg,
Aus tr ia , 1975 .
-10-
Appendix 1
Prevalence Sector Variables
AAR(1)
- aggravation rate from phase A
BAR (I)
-
DR(1)
- death rate
HAGEt(1)
rate from phase B
。ァイカエセッョ
healthy persons' aging rate
HPt(1)
- healthy persons
LAAR(1)
- aggravation rate from phase A for latent side
LAGEt(1,J) - latent sick aging rate
LAT(J)
- latent sick in phase J
LATS
- all latent sick
LBAR(1)
- aggravation rate from phase B for latent sick
LSt(1,J)
- latent sick (LD)
LSDR(J)
- specific death rate for non-attendent sick
MR{1)
- morbidity rate
RAGEt(1,J)
registered sick aging rate
REARt(1,J) - admission rate (REAR)
RECOVt(1)
REG(J)
- recovery rate
registered sick in phase J
REGS
- all registered sick
REMR(1)
- remission rate
RSt(1,J)
- registered sick
RW(1)
- recovery weights
SDR (I)
- specific death rate
-11-
General Part Variables
ADMPt(J)
- admission possibility
ALSCR(J)
- probability not to detect a sick in screening
ASPR
- automated screening productivity
t
DSPR
- doctor's screening productivity
HPt(I)
- healthy population in strata
HPS
- healthy population summed
t
LEV(J)
- level for the delay in doctors' requirement adjustment
- latent sick (detailed)
latent sick fraction in non-registered population
(to be screened)
LSS
- latent sick summed
t
NDRt(I,J) - natural treatment demand rate
NDRD (I, J) - natural treatment demand rate density
PCTDt(J)
- patients that can be treated by doctors
REARt(J)
- real admission rate
RSt(I,J)
- registered sick (detailed)
RSSt(J)
- registered sick in phases
SCREP
- screening productivity
SDOC
t
t
- number of screening doctors
SDSt(I,J) - rate of sick detected by screening
fraction of doctor's activities in screening
standard workload for a doctor (i.e. patients in
phase J per doctor)
TDOC
t
TDPHt(J)
TDPHDt(J)
- number of treatment doctors
- treatment doctors in a phase of a disease
density of treatment doctors in a phase of a disease
TDRt(I,J) - treatment demand rate (detailed)
TDRL
- time lag in doctors' requirement
-12-
TDRSt(J)
- treatment demand rate in phases
TOTDOC
- total doctors in practice
TFRAC
t
t
fraction of doctors' activities in treatment
-lJ-
Appendix 2
I signifies a sex-age structure;
J - a phase of the disease: A, B or C.
Natural Treatment Demand Rate
NDR(I,J)
=
NDRD(I,J) • LS(I,J)
NDRD is the fraction of LS in phase J that seek treatment
on their own initiative.
Sick Detected by Screening
SDS{I,J)
=
SCREP • LS(I,J)/(LATS + HPS)
• ALSCR(J)
Here
SCREP is screening productivity;
SCREP
=
ASPR + DSPR • SDOC
ASPR is automated screening productivity;
DSPR is the screening productivity of a physician;
SDOC is the number of doctors in screening;
SDOC
=
TOT DOC • SFRAC
TOTDOC are all the doctors in practice;
SFRAC is the fraction of doctor's activities in
screening;
LATS are all the LS:
=
LATS
I .I
J
HPS are all the HP:
HP
=I
LS(I,J)
I
HP(I)
I
ALSCR(J) is probability to identify a Phase J LS in screening.
-14-
Admission Demand Rate
= NDR(I,J) + SDS(I,J)
TDR(I,J)
Admission Demand Rate in Phases
=
TDRS(J)
L TDR(I,J)
I
Patients that can be Treated by Doctors
PCTD(J) = SWL(J)
• TDPH(J)
Here
SWL(J) is the number of Phase J sick that can be treated by
a doctor regularly, i.e. standard workload of a doctor;
TDPH(J) is the distribution of health care resources (doctors)
in phases of the disease, TDPH(J) should be proportional to
the RS in phase (J):
=
TDPH(J) should
REG(J)
PEG(J)/REGS • TDOC
L RS(I,J)
=
I
REGS
=
L L RS(I,J)
I
J
In practice, this equality is presumed to hold with delay:
TDRL is the lag time;
TDOC are the doctors (health care resources) in treatment:
TDOC
= TOTDOC • TFRAC
TFRAC is the fraction of a doctor's activities in
treatment.
Admission Possibility
ADMP(J)
= PCTD(J) - REG(J)
-15-
Real Admission Rate
TDRS(J)
if ADMP(J) > 0, ADHP(J)
= ADMP(J)
REAR(J)
セ
TDRS(J)
if ADMP(J) > 0, ADMP(J) < TDRS(J)
o
if ADMP(J) ::; 0
The Prevalence Equations
C;; '.'. =t< .•' ( S )
セ」
":
セ
( セ
Lセ
0\. I; I' Zセ
セL
L " l:. t, f, :" :: I.. ,<I t
L I" lJ i;!. ゥセ
セ
I,
セL
)
S ( Zセ • 1 1
) .. :J
r s }Jセ
=Zセ ., P ( セZN
r; セゥ k
セ
セN
:: {J ..
HセI
;r'';;;:
EC(' \i :: セ .; (
.... f- ,. J.S:.;.Jt i
j.;'
0;:'
&. :;'
U, 2)
1 :)
) ;"" '" ( '" •
) .. p
[セ
\. セ[
l ) ) • t.
;;»
,
(セ , 1)
U J ... L ;) (::, , ? )
セ
c
c
c
c
ヲセ
HP ( S ) ::..., r' (S,) + 11 T .. ( .,' セ (' li 1/. LiNエ[セL
T F-' r t-' t:' r
LT. i:;. i H ;.1 ( セ ) :
"n •
.. '. i
ioi
* 1-1 P ( S ) + H r,!; f. ( s ) )
r•
rsHULQI]セイGKtエmjMTgdNhBecuv
&
pエゥ[fHUBIKZLイGヲセᄋQj
c:
R 5 Hセ
, ;: ) == ['; セ
( ;; ,
10 セ L. i;
セ
C
Q
S i ;."
QNセ
&
:"'<:-i
io' "
Gr:
? ) +i \ T •
r 3 , ,; ) + r, t
( Lll';; (, セ - A .. cセ U セ -Ill-; .. i", S ( :-, , ?) .. 1'1' E:; M l セ
,
to:,: ( セゥ
r セャ • !J) + 'I T :* ( セ
( 5 • !- ) + ;J !';. ,0 ; i Hセ
))
セ
4 iセ ,; f,": .. S :_' q |セ
,
J '* P::- (5 ,
Nセ
)+
.3) ,
C
l S ( セ , 1. ) :: L J ( c:; , 1 ) .• r'1
&
L iセN
f.:
f. (i'; , 1 ) .. セャ
C
L5 ( セN , ? ) :: !.
3.
C
C
セ
I. t; エセH
2 ) Nセ .)1 * l l.• A II (:; セA
1:, ..
(0:; ,
? ) ⦅Nセ
J
r
II
r" ( (; , I'!)
I)"
'"
t ,_
('".n- . . IアセNL\Hセ[ヲGiイ
lGZ gイセ
h: r< .. !. t, At; \J セイ • LHH I S ( セL , 1 ) +
(セ ,
L S (., , :3 ) ;; L セ ( S •.セ ) •
It
p (1". ,;
to:. f ;, • 1 ) )
..セ
c: I) f. (. '" .. L Zセ
C
r.:
I) ':!S
332
.( ;.'
j',:
1, 3
イG[HrZゥセLQI
.L.'
j":ft;'CS,-.-:.)
NセQN
CONTINUE
Qセᄋ
Niセ]IエLウNHZ[セ
;'. • }
l. k ;.,. r; \:; セ .. j'\ « * L セB ( S , 2 ) +
vLHNMZセIQ\ゥャ
'J;":
(&) .. '- 5 ( :, , 3) +
+
The Latent Sick
FtGlJItE:
0.1b77E "'II
0.1f>ll3E vl13
--------._.__________.--______.-.-.____________________._._____._----------···---------------····---_····-----11
I
I
I
I
I'
I
0.1571>" 1"11
I
I
0.15ll2E e8 I
I
0.1'5IilQE cGセ
I
I
I
セNQTWUf
e'll !
I
I
I
0.1llllO'e rt"
!
I
I
I
0.1lll"H 08
!
I
I
I
0.1375E C'II1 I
I
I
I
1
0.13111F. セ・
I
1
I
11l.l308E 08. 1
I
I
I
O.127llE IH\
I
I
I
I
0. 12111 E '11\
I
1
III • I 2 ('17 E ,.1/\
1
I
I
I
1
I
t
2i. 11 7llt'. "'!l
I
I
I
l1lo11lll1lE tIIB
I
I
1
I
l".IIC'1bE "'II I
I
1
I
0.1C'1nE v.'8
t
II
I
I
I
セNャcGSアe
Gセi|
I
111
I
1
I
I
11'.1l'I('lt-F J1!l
1
I 11
I
I
0.972llE セW
1
I
11
T
1
I
0.<138810 07
1
111
I
I
iil.'11/l53E ;»7
I
1
I
I
111
1
O.87111E \'17
I
I
1
1
I
11
O.831'lE '1'7
1
I
I
111
lil.ol1lll7t: ",7
1
I
I
I
I
11
0.77I?E '/'7
1
I
1
1
11 I
0.737H: (l!7
I
I
I
I
1
0.7C'illIE ",7
11
I
t
!
I
1 11
C'l.b71i'f,f ,,7
I
t
1
I
PNQ^SWセ
(1,7
I
111
I
I
I
セNQ^ASGUe
.,7 I
I
1t 1
1
I
1
C'I.57l1'V1E e7
I
I
11
I
QOャNAISセUe
'/'7
1
II
I
I
I
1
1
I
1/l.5l"30F t;J7
lit
I
1/l.1I1,QQE ,,7
I
1
t
II
I
1
1
I
l/l.ll3SQE '-'7
I
11 I
I
l1l.llo.'?llF 07
1
I
I1 1
I
1
1
I
I
I
.,.3f>I;\H "7
r
1
I
セN
B5lE. ,,7
I
1
I
II
I
1
0.30113E. !.H
I
I
1I I
I
1
0.i?b/l2E Cl7
I
1
I
il.23llH ",7
1
1
I
r
1
I
I
I
10.12010'1:: Wセエ
r
I
1
I
0.1f>77E I<lT
I
I
1
I
0.13lllt:. 11'7
I
I
r
1
I
1
11l.10\'1f,E 'A7
I
I
I
I
I
1
Il.b7t'M f"f>
1
I
エ\ャNiヲ^セGアe
viI!
セN
v.lb
R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R_ R R _R _R セ _ Go_ゥ R_セ _セRS セS
ョ\[セe
"'.'013E
!
1
.
セi
M M MS SG S Sセ S S S S S S S S ェS S QS S S S S S S S S S S S S S S S S
I
1
I
1
I
I
I
1
I
I
I
I
1
I
I
I
I
1
I
I
I
I
I
I
1
I
I
I
I
I
III I
I
I
I
I
I
111
I
I
I
I
I
I
111
I
I
I
1111
I
I
I
I
I
I
111
I
I
I
I
I
1111
I
I
I
I
I
I
111
I
I
I
I
111
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I 111
I
I
I
I
I
I
11
I
I
I
I
I
I
III I
I
I
I
111
I
I
I
I 11
I
I
I
I
I
I
111
I
I
I
I
11 I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
111
I
I
I
I 11
I
I
I
I
111
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
1
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
1
1
I
1
I
1
1
1
I
I
I
1
1
1
I
I
1
I
1
I
I
I
I
1
1
1
I
I
I
I
I
I
1
I
1
I
1
I
1
1
1
I
1
1
1
I
I
I
I
1
I
I
1
1
I
1
I
1
1
I
I
1
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
t
I
I
1
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
1
I
I
:J::'
'0
'0
CD
::l
0.
セN
X
w
I
セ
'"
I
セtgljNeZ
0.b?t"n
1!'.6'lI\JE
0.SQ5QI;'
0.S8]';E
0.'57H'IE
i2!.S586E.
V.6
I'll
'!"
セヲ^
0/:l
'".b
PNセOャQRe
ZQセ
Q\ャNセRie
V'"
セNUjSXGo
セャ^
0.50Q"'1: .'111
0.IIQ6"E "'I:>
Q!.1I8111'O "'0
0.1l717E toll,
11l.115Q3r:: fA"
1i'.1I1Ib'll': (",
PNQSBセ
"'''
1Il.1l221E
(/).110971:
0.3Q7?t::
0. 'sIlII/l1:
Qi.37211fO
(/).'sbl'l0E
0.31171:>E
M ⦅ M M ⦅ᄋ M M NM ⦅M NM セS
I
[
I
I
I
t
1
I
I
I
r
I
I
I
I
(ill>
I
"'b
T
(JI,
T
Ph
(H,
M,
I
I
I
I
""
PNS セ_エ
"'I>
'" • .5;:>?I"': p,f>
<'I •.HI1I3t' .'b
0.2Q7ClE Qi"
P1.21\55!: I'lb
0.2731E セGV
0.2b07E r>,11
1'1.21183'0 r"b
0.<!J';QE ,M,
1O.2?35t:: I)"
PNRQpセ
:'Ib
21.1QI\l>E 0"
"'.18f>2E セ B
lIl.173!lE (J!l
i'I.lblllt:. 0"
PNQᆪFアoャセ
セエZM
I
I
J
I
I
r
1
I
T
T
1
T
T
[
r
I
I
I
I
0.131>61:.
0I.12111f
0.11171:.
(/). ClQ], I:.
Gl.a.,'ll!'t
e'.71111l't
,:<;
r
0'5
2 '5
1
Iil. b20H
('':l
「ᄋHセ
セo
(H,
GセNiq「Be
0'5
0 •.H2/lf 05
QI.2JI33E "';
セNエRQャZ
,'0:;
・NゥA。cャセ
:-0:
r
I
T
r
r
J
_._-----_.--
Q M M M M M ⦅ᄋ M ᄋM M
1
1
1
I
I
I
1111111
1
I
1
1
1
1
1
1
111111
1
i!?2i?2?1'1 1
1
1
1
1
22<'2;';:0 111 t
1111111
1
2222222
1
HI
1
1 i:!;:0222221t11
111111111 1
22222222
1
1
1
:J3
1 ]33
I
2222222222
222<'22111111
I
1
11111111111
1
!
222222222222
22222211111111111111111111
1
1
1
'n
t
T
122222222222222222222222
1
1
HI
1
1
I
I
1
1
1
3,S3
1
I
I
I
1
I
I
1
I 333
I
I
1
1
1
1
I
1
1
1
1
1
33
1
I
1
1
1
1
1
1
3331
I
1
1
I
1
1
]33
I
I
I
1
I
I
I
1
I
1
!J3
I
I
I
I
1
1
1
1
I
33 1
1
I
I
1
1
1
1
1
t
1
33.5
1
1
1
1
I
1
1
1
1
1
1
I
13333
1
1
1
1
I
1
1
333331
1
1
1
1
1
I
I
I
1
1
333333
1
1
I
1
1
I
33333333
I
1
1
1
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
1
333333333
I
I
I
I
I
33333333
1
1
1
1
1
I
1
1
I
1333333
1
1
1
1
1
I
1
1
I
1
I
I
1
33333
1
1
1
1
I
1
I
1
1
1
1 333333 1
1
1
I
1
1
I
1
1
1
1
333
1
I
1
1
1
1
I
1
1
1
1
1
1
I
1
1
1
1
1
I
1
1
I
I
I
1
1
1
I
I
1
I
I
1
I
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
I
I
1
1
1
1
I
1
I
1
1
I
1
I
I
I
1
1
1
1
[
I
1
1
r
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
I
1
1
I
I
1
I
1
[
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
I
1
I
1
1
1
I
I
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
I
1
1
1
1
I
1
I
1
I
1
I
1
1
I
I
1
1
1
1
1
r
1
1
1
1
1
I
1
1
1
I
1
1
1
I
1
1
1
1
1
I
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
I
1
1
I
1
I
I
I
I
1
I
1
1
I
1
I
I
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
I
1
1
1
1
I
1
1
1
I
I
1
1
r
1
1
I
1
1
I
I
1
1
I
I
I
1
1
1
1
I
I
1
1
r
1
1
1
1
I
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
I
I
1
I
1
1
1
1
1
I
'B;:In?,;:Il
ョセ
The Registered Sick
..
----- .. ---.-_._-_.-.-.-._---------.-._--------_.-._-_ ... _-------------_ ..... ---.- .. ----.- .. ---- ......
I
t-'
-J
I
Admission
fIGURE:
0.1171"2E '1'5
0.lIb11'IIE 1'15
セNQiUe
1''5
ii'l.1l112 111 E セGU
LlI.1132H 0'5
0.1I<'32E 0'5
0.111311E 1/1'5
セNiYQャe
"'5
(/l.3Q5r,E il5
ilI.38!:>61; (1'5
0.37b2E 2'5
0.3bf,n 0'5
0.3573E Pセ
0.3117QE I'!:>
0.331''5!: "'.,
0.32QIE \?,5
i.31QH. "S
e.3111'3E PS
e.3LHiQE (''5
[C.2'l15!: 1'<;
0.28?IE ;>5
0.2727F. 1/'<;
II: .2"331: セjU
0.253QE ,'5
rc. ・セャQTG\
("5
e.23''i1i'. ,'5
セGN」RUW
r"r;
0.21b3E k"'"
1Z.20b'lE. セBッ[
0.1Q75i'. 05
"'.181lIf セNGゥ
e. 178 7f (' ..
BGNQVャSセ
i·'S
0.IS'l'lE (.'5
"'.IS,"5E ('e;
".ll1tH.
セᄋウ
NQSョセ
Q'.
:-5
-----------._.________________.-.-._______.__.-_._.____._._______
ャエM ᄋ M ᄋ M M ᄋセM ᄋM ᄋM NᄋM M ᄋM M
t
r
r
T
t
r
r
t
I
t
I
I
t
I
I
I
I
I
1
1
t
r
1
I
I
r
r
r
r
I
T
I
r
r
I
r
r
t
1
1
1
I
1
1
I
I
I
I
1
I
1
I
I
1
1
I
I
I
1
1
1
J
r
1
1
T
1
r
1
I
1
I
1
I
1
I
1
1
1
1
1
1
!
r
1
1
1
1
J
r
1
1
1
1
1
.L
1
J
J
1
l
T
I
J
I
I
1
セ
P2?E. 1''5
I
1'.112/11:: C''i
"'.11II3I1E ゥZGセ
I
I
セQNYPiヲ
1
.,11
1
1
I
I
I
I
I
1
1
Nセaャ「e
|セi
I
RャNWsZ_セe
('II
T
V'. b51l Zエセ
[.""u?F
('ll
1
1
l'I.<,e2lE
f'. Q X セ
I t.
"'II
"'II
'·'11
"II
"II
I
I
1
1
セNiェHGャエ
セBL|
T
I
I
".1l7(,\?t
BNSW「Rセ
·lil.b71IlF.(·<,
T
i
r
セB|S セB|セB|sャセ ェセ S ャSB|ェセS jSセUjS S S S
I
1
1
1
I
1
I
1
1
1
1
I
1
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
1
1
1
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
i
I
1
I
1
I
1
1
I
I
I
I
I
1
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
1
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
1
1
1
I
I
I
I
1
1
I
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
11 1
I
I
I
I
I
11
I
I
222
I
I
I
I
11
22 I
I
I
I
111
I
I
I
I
I
11 222
I
I
1 122
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
11 22
I
I
I
I
1 2 I
I
I
11 22 I
I
I
I
I
I
I 1 22
I
I
I
I
I
11 2
I
I
I
I
I
11122
I
I
I
I
I
111 22
I
I
I
I
I
11111 22 I
I
I
I
I
I
11111 22222
I
I
I
I
I
I
111 22222
I
I
I
1112222
I
I
I
I
I
1122
I
I
1
I
I
1122
I
I
I
I
I
122 I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
12
I
22
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I 2
I 2
I
I
I
I
I
I
12
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
?
13333333333333
1
I
I
3
3333
1
I
21
I
I
33
I
2 I
I
I
I
I
3
I
I
I
I
I
I 33
3
2 I 3
I
I
I
I
I
33
I
I
I
I
I
3 I
I
I
I
I
2 3I
I
3 I
3 I
I
I
I
2
31
I
I
I
I
I
3
3 I
I
I
I
I
1
13
1 3
I
I
I
I
1
I 33
2
I
I
I
I
3
33
I
1
I
I
I
I
1
3]3 I
13
I
1
I
I
I
I
I
3333
I 2
I
I
I
I
I
1
I
1
I
I 33333333
1 23
J
I
I
1
I
I
I
I
1
I
I
I
I
1 3
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
13
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
1
I
I
1
I
I
1
1
I
I
1
I
I
••• • ••••••• • • •••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••
I
t-'
OJ
I
Demand for Admission
--_IGURE:
.... -._.-
F
f'"
!C.7?4'';I:
0. THJC'lE PI,
1/1. b'lo;o;t (."
1!.1!1l10t. セQA
PNQBセf
Vlb
0.10520fo:
".!l:,\ 7"t
QuNARZアセ
r.M'lBhfo:
セNカ
Qセ
Ph
V"
0.5 'l III t. \, ..
セINUWGャィヲ
f'l.,
\!.51051f '1/l
セNG
S5c''''fo: " ..
!'.53"I F· セGiL
k!. '>? t!lf. ., ..
QNセPWGe
.'11
"l.1I'l271: ,'I>
(1.<l7e21: "n
セNTBSWf
('f,
,"I!
セNQiT_f
ゥQGNTSWヲセ^
<l.4?"'21:.
\!I. 11I1IS 71:
"' • .5'l12!;
f'b
C""
"'I!
セjNSWB エZ
l'b
0 • NUィゥ_セ
0. セTWjQイ⦅
""'.
(''''
cQNhSセf
"'''
tol, HIi'lF- セ ..
e..30113E '.'b
'l.2/l'l'lF. セB
C'i.n53t "!>
PNRBLG^ャセ
f'b
III'"
VI.c!4l>3t
ヲセN[ZSQAf
IJ&
t'I.c!173t ;,b
ゥNセ
\AL_。セ⦅
"0
_QXセ セ
_セ
1 7 j G I::
v: to,
0 •• S'llit
O.ltlU'lE
I'"
V''''
f.I:, •
イセNャ
'I'!1.l1:. Bセi
• 115 q E ,\"
PNQセi
'""
セL
ZANセヲッアBエ
'<l. セ
Zセエ[
?llc;t.
'" • ':i 7 '1tlt
ャゥGiNTSWセ
" • <! 1\ q
II E
l'"
'" 'J
VI"
NセB
"'. 11111 'If ,15
セNGャW[Ghᄋ v
___________ • • • _____ . - . - . _____________ •
_ _ _ _ ft _ _ _ _ •
______ • •
--------.----------------------------------11
I
I
1111 I
I
1
1
1
1
1
t
1
1
I
1 111
1
1
I
I
I
I
111
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
111 1
I
T
I
I
I
111
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
1
I
I
I
I
1111
1
I
I
I
I
I
11 I
I
r
I
I
I
1
I
T
1
111
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
1
I
1111
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
111
I
I
1
I
I
1
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I 11
I
1
I
I
1
T
I
I 111
1
1
I
I
1
I
I
1
1
1
I
1
I
11
1
I
I
I
I
I
1
I
111 I
1
I
I
I
I
I
I
1
I
I
1
11
I
I
I
1
I
t
I
I
1
I
I
I
I
I 111
I
I
I
r
1
1
I
1
I
I
11
I
I
I
J
1
1
I
J
till
I
1
I
I
I
I
I
I
11
I
I
1
I
I
I
I
I
I
1
1
I
I1
r
I
I
I
I
I
I
1
1
I
1
I
I
111
t
I
I
1
I
1
I
11 I
I
1
1
I
I
T
1
1
I
I
I
I
I
I
11
I
I
I
I
1
1
I
1
1
11
I
I
I
I
I
I
1
I
I
I III
I
I
I
I
I
1
I
I
1
I
I
I
I
1
11
T
I
1
1
I
I
I
I
1
I
I
t1 I
I
I
I
I
I
1
I
1
I
1
I
I
1
1
11
I
1
I
I
1
1
1
I
I
I
11
1
I
I
I
I
I
I I1
I
1
I
I
1
I
1
I
I
I
I
I
I
I1
I
T
1
I
I
1t 1
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
1
1
I
1
I
1
1
I
1
I
1
I
t1
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
11
I
I
I
1
I
I
22222222222
1I 1
I
I
I
I
1
22222222?22222222222222222222222222222222222
122??"2222222?2222222?2222
I
I
II
1
1
I
I
I
_ _ _ セ _セR_ _R 」A
I
I
I
1
1
I
q33 11
1
1
I
I
I
I
I
1
1
I
I
I
I
1
I
3'133
I
1
I
1
I
1
I
I
.5BB3
1
1
1 1 11
1
1
I
1
.BB3U
I
1
1
1
1
1
I
1
I
I
33J33B
I
I
I
I
T
1
1
I
3B.B33333
1
I
I
I
I
1
I
1
I
I
1
Sbセ
I
I
1
I
I
I
1
I
I
1
333333
I
I
1
I
T
1
1
I
I
1
33333.531
T
I
I
1
I
1
1
I
I
I
I
I
333333
1
I
I
I
I
1
I
I
I
r
I
I
33H3333
I
I
T
T
I
I
1
I
I
333333333333333333333333333
1
I
1
I
I
1
1
I
J
1
J
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
I
----------------------------------------------------------------.------------------------------_._---
I
t-'
\..C
I
Population Growth
TGuRE:
._ .. -._----セ
r,.
<' I b ll". "'I
P.'.<'126t Lセq
(' • c! C'l!' 2F ('Q
f-'.203ClE ClQ
セNicャB
Q
セL
"'.1'1521: r:;'1
t) • I 'If 'IF ;IQ
lil.l/ll>"iE ,'Q
(l.18;>;>1-. ('1'1
0.177'lE ,'Q
"'.17351-
"(j
セNャ「GRe
,;,Q
0.11,4/1f :tlQ
i'.lb;1"ic [""I
BGNQ「Rセ
GLセg
('1.151/11::
0.la751:
iJ. 1 (l3?f.
!i\.13PIIF
0.Hu5f
ゥセ .13f'l セ
"J.125/lE
(J.121"iF.
".t 111 E
ェcGセ
(''I
('1
",'1
".l1?RF
.... Q
UJll\5t
",Q
r,.
BNiゥャ。セ
[,q
c>'l
("q
;1'l
(''I
0.4'l7H
('I.
,''I
'l5 (I (I"
;'1\
,'/l
iII.ClII<IE V,
e./l1,7bE セ 8
0."2421'. ,,1\
t1,78[I,IIt
[t.O
kl.737S" c-Ii
". bClu It {Gセ
セB
b"iiC07t •It!
",,II
GャN「BWセe
BN「Scャセ
CI\
(1.
k).
'5 ;>(' セN
I' 'I
u 17?F ., I!
'-. OJ ZGXェセ
I).
セN
,'/l
jCl0(1e ;'1\
547;>tf セ[ セ
,j •.セ\QNhエZ
"",
セZGゥNRィョエ
セj[ Bセ
"' • 2 I b 'I E (1/1
1l.113'5E
['.13011': ヲGセ
',1 , セiL l1>t :",' 1
""
" • a セ 3 i! "- '-'7
- <1 • 12 1 01 i:. :"3
•••••• =&= ••
_______ • __ N M セ M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M R R R R R R
r
1
I
,
1
I
2222222222222222222222 I
I
I
I
.222222222222222?22222222
I
I
I
'total I
I
I
I
I
R_セ
I
r
I
1
I
I
I
I
11111111111
I
2?<'?2222??22222??i?
I
I , I I I I I I I \ I I I 1 I I I I I I 1 \ 1111 It 11\ 1 1 I 11 III I 111 I \ II! 1111 1 11\1 1 I 111 I I 11 11 I 1 1 1 I 1111 I 11111 111 111 II
I
I
I
I
1
I
I
I
r
T
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
T
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
r
I
1
I
I
I
I
r
I
I
I
1
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
1
I
I
I
1
I
I
I
I
1
I
I
1
I
I
I
I
I
I
T
I
I
I
1
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
1
1
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
1
I
T
1
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
T
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
r
I
I
I
I
I
I
1
I
I
I
1
I
I
I
I
1
I
I
I
1
1
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
1
I
1
T
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
1
I
r
\
I
I
I
I
I
1
I
I
I
r
1
I
I
I
1
I
I
I
I
L
I
1
1
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
1
I
1
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
r
r
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
1
1
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
1
l
I
1
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
T
T
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
r
I
I
T
I
I
I
I
I
I
1
I
I
I
1
I
I
I
I
I
I
1
I
1
I
I
I
1
I
I
I
I
I
I
1
1
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
1
T
I
I
I
I
I
T
I
I
I
I
I
1
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
1
T
1
I
I
I
r
r
I
I
I
I
I
1
I
I
I
I
1
I
I
I
I
1
!
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
T
I
1
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
1
r
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
1
I
1
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
1
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
1
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
1
I
I
1
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
1
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
r
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
1
T
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
t
I
t
I
I
I
I
セ
セ|ィ・。ャエy
,
........... --_._---.-.---------_. __ .. _- .. _----- .. __ .--._- .. -----.-- ............. - ....................
s •••••
,,:; " r; :;. A"·
&= ••••••• ••••••·.&•••••••••••••••••• •••••••••••••••••••••••••
セ
, セ セ ..
I セN
セ
Tセ
II
I
N
0
I
-21-
APPENDIX 4
c•••••• セ •••••••• c •••••••• c.c •••••• c ••••••••••••••••••• •••••••••••••••••••
c:
c:
c:
IS
sャセt
MOQtL OF
6 Xaセic
セtlaeセ
CARE SYSTEM
C
C
tfl1 P l.1ClT
セeal
iセteg セ
T,
(6-Z)
spNnLi セLs niセtNinuNindexNphaseLns
OIM!NS1QN PN(23"PCSM(23),PUO RO(23"PVH(23',PVIH(23',
&
&
&
&
&
&
aアHRSILXNセhTgヲmpGlrBej
lセaHRSILGsョrイャmNge
セeqHRSINLGrsoBadmp
tョーセHSスLPphdINorRABsQGc
alscqSBnorH_ャLINョセptdAw
LS1(23',PREPC(23,.LF.V(3),LS2(23),LS3(23"X RS(!"XLS(!),UPSI(3,
c
PQセensio
outQHSセILオRイ「GNV
oljtQRイエUSLNucセI
&
COMMON/PLOT/OLJ T1,OUT2,OUT3.PNP,TM
c- • • • • - - • • - - •• - - • • • • • • - • - • - • • TM
AD. AS
セeg tip
セZeg ャtGB
iareUOセo mdc
ismu Onoセ c
c
c
PCDJ,PCOM
HPS,LATS,REQS.L.T(3),REGC3"CT,LEV,PRIORT(23)
C
("Sl(l',R5(1.1)',
&
&
&
&
&
C
C
HrsRヲャGLセUH|LRQGN
HセsSHャLNセAHQLSGIL
(LS1(l',LS(1,1)),
HlDセHQILlsHQLRᄏL
(lS3(l'.L8(1,3,)
C
ecセ laiャ u ge
(OUTlil
(1)
,aun (154".
&
(OUT22(1),DU T2f154')
C • • • • • • • T セ PUT S • • • • • • •
._---_.---.
C
C
C
C
POPULATHiN
PN
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
deセt
セatf
ャセ
UtセN a
エセ
STwATA
pcセij
セit
ratセ
P II "iU'l
PERINATAL
htaセ
RATE
oゥ|iセscp
SEX
. . . .. - . .
P.AT J('J
PCQJ
PC D(1
• • • •
-22-
c
ョセa
iセte「raon
PERIOD
c I I'd EGIH 11 r:' t.'
.[lTpr,p,
SP AN
c
c
stセum
Df.PTM, NlIMI3ER OF STRATA
c STQATIIH l'E"PTH, ageセ
T?
f\lS
c
T1
c
• • •
••
.
c• • - - c
c
t
c
------------_ .... _---.-.-._--c
Pr:lPIIL4'TlChi IN STIHTA ANI') eセt
DC-SEASE PHASe:S
c
Lーセ
LS,
RS
c
c
c OEATH PATES セエ STRATA
ョセ
c
c
sヲtaセ
c SPECIFIC セtaエg
se R ,
L51)q
c
c
セatセ
イセ
PHASES oセa
STRATA, MOR8IOITV RATE
c agセr vatiPn
Lqセa
Lァaセ
LセaN
LfGセl
MR
c
c
ANO nujUセQ r
sthgieセ
c recovヲセ
r;EMQ
c
c
. .. - . --
.. ..
- . ..
Liセp
c
c
c
c
c
cc
c
c
c
c
c
c
c
c
c
c
c
c
c
c
c
c
eセイt
LAG IN
sセotc o
ADJUSTMENT
tセ meセiオ セ
TORL
STEP
セuitaセg・tni
c:
. . . -- - ---- . -- -. . . . . . . -r.l'T
セ
_._._--_TO.... _.- .•. -.-.-.
!t·'PUT
JL YTv
セa・」rp
TO DF.TEC T A SICK IN
sGセgtcod
AUTOP-lHEI.l At..iD
ASPR,
NUMBfR OF
sセotcqo
セa
TQTQOC,
STANDARD
gnイセfエrcs
セiヲhイ
tセ mtaセ t
noituXiwtセAd
oセa
FOP
oa l\セョゥ
セu{iHULアRI
FORMATC/I2)
gセineエrcァ
SFRAt
Lcaセft
lセ
IRPアLセHoaer
ケョカitcuo セp
セpso
セQ
c
922
gセine rcs
AL.SCo(
Ar)
lr「tLonmscp d ー j iRtLエ naセs B ーッptョL
セ
DOCTOR
• •
-23-
セ adcULアセSI
to P cLsfセ cLtfrac
セ aセc Lアセ I
セ
alscmLaUpアLdsprLsセl
E.A W( c; • q V: S)
セZ
IQ YLshGaエセ
D:;i ,.,
セャ{U
QfAr.·C':i,9tl) UH)q
'1e. A uCr;,9111
BGiセ
QE.ACCS,91?)
....
セ
RE/Io!IoI
I_QYL[c IiaZ fセ
IRQアNscGhZeセ
AAR
IRQYLUcoaエセ
セaX
IRQアLUco セ
LA.R
QUGC5,912)
lXaセ
prセpc
セ aocULYQSI
rエaセH」[LアセWG
I;l
latBlatLregsLセ g
fAn C5 , q ((18 ) Fl Lセ
Ii'U[)(S,q",ql
pcセGB
セeaPH」[Lアエ・I
PUDRU
c
c•••••••••••••••••• : •••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••
C
C
on
1;01
1.1,2'3
pnciャᄋpnHiGJQセ N
UM·l.-FlREPCCT)
I1P (I) .1.)t-hPN (t)
l/.PREPC (I)
BLpセh
I)
Y.hLATS
LS(I,I)·Y*LATC1)
lUHiLRINyJlatHセI
LSCI,31·v*LAT(3)
vNャHBGセfNgs
rsHャN IᄋyJセ gHャI
rsHiLRINvJセe HRI
セsHiLSINy regHSI
C
セPQ
セotiue
C
C
C
SCQE€NING
ytiv tcセGjrp
C
ャotcNdエセP
screpNTセKoDエtJfa
TCOC.TQTDOCtTFRAC
c
c•••••• M ⦅NセM M M ⦅N セM⦅N
C
C
__•__ -_•• ⦅Nセ
Of
TO エセt
nuセreq
pセioア
snoitaセgftセj
セi
TOTAL noitaluァセp
ShOTF2QP/OT
"-, I NT. C:iT + • II:j ,
c
liM.'?.
00
605
hGセU
|iBGN jセKャIセ
1.1,1\15
(1)
T''''.12)
DO
iェutャイ LᄋセN
410 I a l,3e.b
THE
••_•••_- •••••••• _--.- •••••.
SECTOR
ecn lavセrp
INTEGRATION
-24-
001?CUal1i.
セsP
cオtGHiI。セN
OI)T3 r5?) a ,.I""
(ALLIco tLraeセLlrotLrcslセLョ ッセLウrNUlLpセNl sLーセrcs tiセoa
OQ
セPQ
WN・セ
11.81,3
ャevHセI。Qcrlエ eイLHセIO ヲMgs
t。セ
c
lA.f<JH
IャイアNセH
sオエrK taャ セph。l tc
c
DO fl0B
I'<
a l, セ
pegckINキegHセ}Oキegs
lセtイkINャセtHセ}Olセt
セ iteイ「LYセaI
セPX
c
T,
GO
bbf:,
Ka
geセLtal セuLlato LUgeBNstalLspセ
l.NS
pcセmHセGNpエsmイセIOQP セN
Pu,.,,,('l (if) .PU!)IoW (1\)
11 NZGhセ
NPセ QOGセH osN}kHセus
NPセ ャOGセH dsャᄋGセc osl
NPセ sOIセHキm。IセH セ
Nセ ャOIkHセqNIセH セ
Nセ jQOIkGセme 。Gkイセmエ
NP セャOGセHraセNI Hセa
NセP QOIHi raセ。IkHqa・
N・PエャQOGセH_ッia N I\iHra l
NセP QOIkHセaXャ。Iセイ Vbl
イオセエt c
NPセ QOPセ scp。オセ sエp
66&
r:
c
C
****PEGJM:****
C
****t*t** •• ***
C
C
C
C
••• **** ••• _ ••••
DO 5Q117l
C
セaBsLエ。t
•••• ** •••••••
e
C
C
C
IN
neセbos
*.
ヲセt
セtN
iセNe
C
paXro。セN
DO
Q Zセ
laU,1fl.?
pabrHGINpaアGゥャイN KャI jャIセイQ
100
r:
(1) *PN (I)
C
C
C
C
C
C
pセPlatio
AGING
セ ャtセo
•• _-_ ••• _-._-._---_.--.-
-25-
c
c
c
****.*.**.**
c
00 1fl :-1,23
C
***.***.**.*
C
C
pUセifcsIJH
IF (t-j)21
c
C NON
*
ーカエセサイIipcdemJpnHiI
c
c
11
PE0PLE:
セlo
**
IJ. (l • - pcsGセ
(I , )
11
PC 0 E セ II) Fl CSf"
I (1 • • U)
1"
C
\'1,1'5, 1b
childセfNnZ
ex )
1(11.,
P\lIoJ(I()·PVIH(I)
GO TO 17
c-·· ••••.•·• __ •.c
c
c
C YOuTrtsl
12
pvセHuIiセviセH IJpcoj
pvセHsIipvihHSIJpcoセ
GO Tr'l 17
c-····_...--_·_-c
c
C
13
AOliL.T PEOPLE:
KIX+?,
P\l1ol
(IC)
IPtJ IH
(J)
GO TO 17
c---------------c
C
C ELCERLV FE0PLE:
15
pvhH_ Gi m Lセ KーカihH_|I
uNH| Mーイ sm セ I J t。
pcoAセ」オJ H RIO QNᄋu
ーviセイR_IM coeセJp HR I
GO TO 17
c------------_.c
c
COLD PEllPL.E:
1b
pvイャHセSIN i _R
pvihHセSIN・G
c·_·_·······_·-c
C
1 '1
r. 0 I\i Tt セZ[
18
セョL
rI)
JF
Ii
pAセ
( 1)
+ 0 TPOP '/l (P V" ( I) - P v 1M ( 1) • P5 セI
C
C
C*
C
*
'II
'II
* * * •
'II'll
* * * * * * * * * * * * * *
-26-
J UL
4 1:3 I S;l
I 97'"
i-:
AI'" • セ
IJ, I, E
セ
C
C•••••••••••• c ••••• :.c ••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••• 1
C
nn
LOセ
F セj f
3:3 Ql
セLャcN i
Hセ
) NAセ
C
C
.
.**.* •••••••• *.
C
Dn 333 AS=l
Lアセt
C
•• *.* •• ** ••••••
c
c
c
c
c
c
.. -.- .. -._._---------_.-.-
C
G J
A
セLゥ
L' P U A T
I;
セ
S
1/,; 0 • I ゥセ D E.X (S)
ifHエセoNャI
QPセ LQPセ|L セ R
rye
QセP
エセQ
SLQNセs hp
Nセ IeSaィpHsjNェHャ
1101
YL S (Pfol;'SF.).0.
セN pN
l"PO
ャc_セjpNセa・セッ
GO Tn 111'rn
c----.-------...····c
1002
NセsHエIᄋtacLinrャ
セsHーINthacイLinョrU_
セsHャ。tッacLエndpSI
セlsHQIᄋUt・ackGLiョ
xlUHセINtacLindャDG⦅
セlHSINsヲェcULャndj
セィpNstacHLiI
セpーNク_KキsHQIxrUcSli。}
c
C
1003
セsiNqUHLQIKRS
lsiᄋHLQIKャセRUS
c
c
fBセipNh
(!;) K セ s Q K l s i
pセ NfGvャ ッQHUI
PIM.PVH(S)
II 1• P EPoi I P NP
to 2 • p 1,.1 I X P セ F'
c
00
Q セR
pセaseNャLS
セageHセLphasヲINxrsHpセaseINuセM scU[pセaUeIJuャ
1102
lageHsLpセNseINxlsHpnasエINオRNlsc LpセaseINオャ
h「geHセG]xhセNuzᄋmセHsGMuャ
C
33 t
CONT nuE
C
C••••• e •••••••••••• : •••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••
C
-27-
c
c
c
CALLIco tLraeセLlrotLrcslaLoセ nLsrN lLph lキウLpNヲrcセHtiセoa
•••••• - ••• ---.--- •••••••• - •••••••••••••••••••• -- •••••••
C
C
00 32q
DO 32q
329
C
C
セNQLS
セ。LャNs
セntc INeセtHkGKrea csLkI
c
c
c
c
EwUATIONS
.... _.-- .•. _._.- .. -...
·C
dセNHchpcUIエrsc LQIKrXHセLRIKrsc LSIKlsc LQIKlsc LRIKセsc LャI N
••
セcsセcsIMrsH LSIJsoセcsIMlsH LSIJlsdrHsI Q
イhpHUIKpscセLャ KrsHGL_MIKlsc LエIKlsc LRI
MORB.MRCS)*HPCS)
IャLsH rJIscキセNカッcer
IゥLsc rJIsHrmeセNsimeセ
AAGGR.AAR(S)tRS(S,l)
XNgイ セ ・arHsIJア LRI
la g rᄋlセa HsIJl c LャI
c
c
c
c
l・ag rᄋ b HsIJl Lセャ
セpHsINh cセ KdtJHrfNcovMm rX uセJhpcsIKセagecsI
IFCHP(5) .LT. 0.)
セpcsINPL
rsH LQINqUcsLQIKセtJHremisMa g rMdrJ sH LQIMrecovK
rGgeHULQKセacsI
•
C
rsHLRGNセcIKotJagMXdemi
&
;AGE(S,2)+REARC5,2))
C
rscLSINセHKdtJXagMo
&
rTgecsLSIエセaU
C
LSCS,1)·LSCS,1)+QT*CMORB-LAAGGR-OR*LSCS,1)+
LAGECS,l)-REAR(S,l))
&
C
lscALRIᄋNKotHagセMbrJ
&
C
C
&
C
lagecsLRIMrヲセQ
lscLSGᄋHIKイケtJ、agrMセ
lagᆪcsLAIMセfNォHS
C
00 332
セNQLS
.LT. 0.)
IFCLSC9,K) .LT.
エfcrsHセLkI
0.'
セsc LセQNP
NP IkLsc セ
-28-
JUL
4 13150 197&
PAGE 8
fNセャa
CONTINUE
332
C
3]3
セd tinue
C************************************************************** .
C
DO 1109 1(.1,3
セe HセINreセHi IOregs
latckIᄋlatHi IOセats
to alNhpsKlatsKrAセs
U9
U"'
·I1I.
DO &06
911111
I.l,NS
UM.UM+PN(I)
WRITE(6,900) T, ュerLtalLmu lato Ls。erLstalLspセ
'WRITE Cf., 98a) EIoJT
nois moaセYLxWHtamroセ
IOANセャfSpAセL
C
!ee
CONTINUE
C•••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••• • ••••••••••••
C
WRITE (",1055)
le!5
Goam tHRセHOI
CALL ORAWER(CUT1,3)
CALL ORIWER(OUTI2,3)
CALL DA.WfR(OUTi,3)
C'LL ISLRtuocpeセir
CALL DAAWERCOUTJ,c)
WAlT! (b, 1051)
CALL EXITI
STOP
cleee
セaite
(&,920)
STOP
c
• •••••••• ••• •••••••••••• •••••• ••••••••••••••••••.
C•••••••••••••••••••••••
C
FOR MAT S
C
I
C
"e
C
セQP
901
NGセjLxR ANGセ}ー・LxGャOLSNTifUーSNLセR iLNRGIᄋNGHPXctNmroG
IOS
tnA alGLxャ GyセtlaehGLxX Ga eyGLxQ IGN cPXQ HtNmroG
SICK',!X,'AEGD.IICK',
I
902
YxLGto Gl LAxLGto aセ
セormGtHi i
903
1ft.
ge5
formatHOセVNQLRfVNSI
LョセmatHOfUNSLセfVNSLUfXNQI
------t---
"7
908
-- 91' -
910
'11
912
·U
1051
FROM POP')
iRLゥx GTNQLix セTNQLRx iャL x fTNQLャx fTNQLix
f5.3,tX,F5.3,lX,,'.2,IX,".3)
FORMAT(/2C1C7 F5.3/),2F5.3/), lC1F5.1/),2F5.])
FORMATC/F5.3, 1F'.3)
FORMAT(/i(9F8.1/), 5F8.1,
fOAMATt'!Ct0F7.2/), 3F'.2)
FORMAT(/2(10Fll.l/), 3F&.I)
GormatHOSHWfセNSOIL
2F8.3)
forセatHOSHWf「NROIL
2F6.2)
セormatエOScWセXNセOIL
2F8.5)
formatHQ XPHBGIQ PxLGproイNセam
TER"'INATEO')
-29-
c
c
c
c
c
--- •. ----- .••••.•..••••.
c
C
C
CALlING 'OEL.V'
BE ioeセgエ セa
セtNl
・efoセ
shセuld
tセヲ
••
イセit al
coセ it dns
FOR 'L'
C
C
C
セe
LセG
Qセ
'T' iセ
'l,' ts
'OT' iセ
C
C
tセ」
tセ
tセエZ
vaセilfN
TO
OELAY
TME
Nfセ
Lセevalセd
LrNヲteセ rap
IN THE DELAY,
lセvelacイZijBGulVteo
n」エイaセgNftセi
Npセts
C
n:LAhLIT
L.L+DTt CIC-DELA'f)
"?E'TLJR'"
ENO
c
c
c
c
C
C
C•••••••••••••••••••••••••• : •••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••
C
C
c
••• ------_.-.- •••--
C
IFCY·')
stoセ
10Vl
202
Qセ L」・セN_ S
ャ・セ[
!t<ipE)(·t
セeturセj
IFCI-!)
203
204
RセTLRP。L_セU
PJD!X·2
returセᄋェ
20S
20&
iセciM。I
GPセLRセ「LセPW
INDI!X·3
RETURN
l'cr-5)
207
2M
It. nE l(. 4
ャ・Nセ RPb Y
PfT\JFI\l
IFCI-?l'
20q
lNCf)'.S
2U
セQ LRQセL_Q
retuゥ]QセZ
211
212
ifciᄋセRG
|セ L_QRLセQS
inゥjeセN「
RET IJR N
213
iBGdセxXW
Fi'ETURk,i
c
c
oセe
/
-30-
c•••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••• ,
c
fuセctio
C
stbackiLnョセopI
•••• - •••••• --- •••••• --- •••
C
セエ[al
セGNlf
OIMEt\:5IO,., IQHーョセ
Cn. セ セ CNI C\ Eii AI F f. M FR, 11 A l FR
c
c
GO
NGRLセ ULT SLR QHot
oセi
STEtACIIC.l.
1
R etャAェZセG
2
J.I-l
STB.ACKIPOP (J)
3
STAACK.ffMFR*pnp(!)
セetliセ G
retuセ Nェ
4
st・acセNmlfrJpoHSI
5
RETUPN
J.Y-2
straci\NセofG
(J)
rfNtuセn
stセa」セNー。 HRPIKpo c・ャI
RETuRN
ENO
c
C
c••••••••••••••
セ
c
sueQOuTINE IcotLraeldsNBセLrlphsecHtiセoa
c
.••••.••.•.•.•.•••••••••••-.-.••• --- •.•.•••••• --- ••.•••••••••
II •••••••••••••••••••
••••••••••••••••• ••••••••••••••••• ,
IMPLICIT IzMaセlr
INfEt;F.H J, I 1 , GセY
oiセensャ
swlHSILhpイRcセrAnoN
&
reac_SNILtopセH
oiセrャPn
&
&
&
セsHSGLrcIゥnoRt
OIMENSION IセLQUHStuoLIF QUH_tucLIセ Q H tuo
DIMENSION LSA(SlJ,LS8(51),LSCC51),
セsaHUQILrVc
AOMC51,3),OEM(51,5"
nOOCS1),TOT(51)
comセ nOsオmセQ
coセ nOplNoti
c
&
mpsLl セLrs LlUウ h Lョt levHSILprio tHRSI
aUT1,OUT2.0uT3,PNP,TM
INTEGeR TM
EQUI v ALE セi CE"f LSAC 1) , 0UTI t1 • 1) ) ,
HlsセcャILoutQRᄏ
CL5C(\1,OU T1Cl,31l,
&
&
&
&
&
HrsTcQINoutLセ
cセsヲAHャILoutQGU
cセHQjLIvtエャN
HaoセᄋcQ、GLャjt。エNI
&
&
HaoセQLSIut・Nj
&
Cr:E"'Cl,1),CIJT2Cl. t1 ) ) ,
HadセQNRjLoutャG
-31-
juセ
i
09113
エYQセ
XXX.F PAGE 3
coAセャLRButイUI
a
WEMC1,]),OUT(l(1,&»
EQUIVALENC! COOO(1',OUT3rl,1)),
(TOTC1),OuT3(1,2)
&
&
C
C
C
TM.TM+1
c
c
IoIPS - 0.
00 399 11-',23
-
mpセ
3 ••
C
C
hpsKmセ・ャI
J-l,!
LSSCJ)10.
RSSeJ)-0.
00 401i'1 11-1,23
LSSCJ)-LSS(J)+LSCI1,J)
RSSCJ)-RSSCJ)+RSClt,J)
DO 400
40121
C
-c-
RSSS-0.
LSSS-0.
00
401
J-l,3
rs Mセs UKrs cjI
セs GMls Klウs・jI
4Q11
--- c---'
c
Z-HPS+L5SS
Z-SCREP/Z
c
c·.·................•..·······
- -- c-'
·.·
00 500 J-l,3
c
500
c
c
TOPSCJ)-0.
DO 500 11-1,23
SOSeIl,J)-Z*AL5C R CJ)*LSCI1,J)
NQRell,J)INOROCI1,J)*LSCT1,J)
TDRCll,J)_NORCll,J)+soseIl,J)
TORSeJ,.TORSCJ)+TORCll,J]
tdph|ャMセN
00 Ul1J
J-l,3
tophHjIMrs HjIOsキセcjI
TDPMW-TOPHH+TOPH(J)
300
C
C
C
coセtinue
00 81et J-l,'!
pctoitopセcjIOtophwNto cNswlサjI
admpM ctoセrs cjI
··..··········
.
-32-
JUL
2 09113 1916
xセvN
PAGE q
c
c
c
C
450
00 Q51 11-1,23
reNセHiQLjIMPN
451
GO TO
C
460
C
470
ifHadmpNtョrセHjセI
セtャ
11-1,23
PRIORTCI1)-rORCI1,J)/TORS(JJ
セeaqHiQLjINaompJ rjortHエャI
GO TO
c
C
480
800
812
810
アWPLT・PLセXP
00
471
481
セjoX
PGNBセ
00 481
iャ・ LセS
IjLャイ」セotNIjBiHセae
CONTINUE
OEMCTM,J)-TORSCJ)
AOMCTM,J)el!l.
DO 812 11-1,23
admHt LjINadmHt LjIKreNセcAQLjI
CONTIi'liUE
C
LSA(TM).LSSCl)
L.SA (TM)
Mlsセ
(2)
LSC: (T101) eLSS (31
R5ACTM).RSSC1)
(T/I,) .qss Cil
Xsセ
rscHtmINセs cSI
OOO(TM).HP5
s セKs lᄋsphNImtH ot
RETURN
dセe