Basic Model of Health Care Systems Olshansky, W. IIASA Working Paper WP-76-020 1976 Olshansky, W. (1976) Basic Model of Health Care Systems. IIASA Working Paper. IIASA, Laxenburg, Austria, WP-76-020 Copyright © 1976 by the author(s). http://pure.iiasa.ac.at/561/ Working Papers on work of the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis receive only limited review. Views or opinions expressed herein do not necessarily represent those of the Institute, its National Member Organizations, or other organizations supporting the work. All rights reserved. Permission to make digital or hard copies of all or part of this work for personal or classroom use is granted without fee provided that copies are not made or distributed for profit or commercial advantage. All copies must bear this notice and the full citation on the first page. For other purposes, to republish, to post on servers or to redistribute to lists, permission must be sought by contacting [email protected] BASIC MODEL OF HEALTH CARE SYSTEMS Wladyslaw Olshansky June 1976 WP-76-20 Working Papers are internal publications intended for circulation within the Institute only. Opinions or views contained herein are solely those of the author. 2361 Laxenburg Austria I International Institute for Applied Systems Ana lysis Basic Model of Health Care System The philosophy of health care system modelling is described in [1,2,3] and elsewhere. The first version of a mathematical model of health care system at IIASA's Bio-Medical Project was worked out by Dr. A. Klementiev. It consisted of a population block and ele- ments for patient treatment and population screening. One of the goals of this model was to examine the possibility of redistributing health care resources between treatment and screening. The resources of health care system--personnel, equipment, etc.--were generalized and represented by "the total number of doctors in practice". The model was constructed in somewhat general terms and lacked the elaboration of its "fine structure" to become an operating model. This work is a natural continuation of the work on modelling commenced in [3] and [4]. Before elaborating an operating model it is necessary to develop a basic model that should later grow upon itself the needed details to become an operating model. The first step in this direction was the working out of the model's demographic subsystem which would represent population aging dynamics. This subsystem is described in [4]. The structure of the basic model is shown in Figure 1: 1. Population prevalence dynamics. 2. pッーオャ。エゥッセ 3. Population aging update as interface between (1) and (2). 4. Treatment section. 5. Screening section. 6. Request for admission into health care system. aging dynamics. In this model the following categorization of diseases is accepted. di.seases [3]: It is presumed that there are three kinds of -2- 1. Diseases of the degenerative エセ have distinctly iden- tified phases and lead to gradual deterioration and death. Ex- amples of this type of disease are cancer, hypertension, TBC, syphilis and alcoholism. diseases: We consider three phases of such phases A, Band C. Phase C may lead to disease- specific death. 2. Acute diseases--accidents, appendicitis, etc. 3. "Non-diseases" that can be eradicated by vaccination-- small-pox, polio, diptheritis, etc. Prevalence subsystem Aging update Population aging routine Treatment Screening Management Figure 1. The Schematic of the Basic Model of the Health Care System The model at its present stage is being elaborated for a certain disease of Type 1. Description of Prevalence Dynamics The population is divided into three categories: people (HP), latent sick (LS) and registered sick (RS). healthy Each category of sickness is divided into three groups with regard to phase of the disease. The HP may become latent sick in Phase A with a definite morbidity rate. The LS cannot spontaneously recover. They have either to be admitted for treatment or to deteriorate until death occurs. -3- The RS receive treatment. Phase A corresponds to outpatients, Phase B to inpatients, and Phase C to invalids with irreversible disabilities. Phase A RS may recover and become HP while Phase B RS cannot immediately recover but may undergo remission and become Phase A RS. Phase C RS deteriorate until death. Disease-specific death rate in Phase C LS is supposed to be greater than that in Phase C RS, and both - greater than the non-specific death rate. The HP and LS are the subjects of medical screening to identify sick persons. There is also a natural demand for treatment from those LS who become aware of their disease. The sick detected by screening plus people who have become aware of their illness by themselves form the treatment demand rate for given phases of the disease. This pattern of prevalence dynamics seenlS to be good as a first approximation. It may be subsequently refined in further development of the operating model. Accumulation and flow patterns for different categories of the population can be described by ordinary differential equations which can be easily entered into a computer. Health Care Activities Health care resources are represented by the number of physicians. Health care resources (doctors) should be redistributed according to the existing RS distribution profile for different phases of the disease. This redistribution may be controlled by HCS managers and usually occurs after a certain delay. The number of sick (PCTD) that doctors serving different phases of the disease can treat is determined by standard workloads (SWL) set either by the authorities or by other means. If the number of patients that can be treated by doctors (PCTD) is greater than the number of RS in a given phase of a disease, the difference between these two figures can be admitted to health care system from the LS forming treatment demand rate. -4- People admitted to health care determine the real admission rate (REAR). This may be equal to zero if there are less PCTD than RS for a given phase of a disease. In this case the doctors (i.e. health care resources) are overloaded, and the health care system is able to function due to its inherent resilience. As stated above, the treatment demand rate is composed of three components: sick detected by screening carried out by doctors, screening carried out by automated equipment, and natural treatment demand. The natural treatment demand is a function of sanitary education, which is an important aspect of any prophylaxis measures. Automated screening is more efficient as well as more expensive than screening done by physicians. To provide for better detection of LS, health care managers should increase investments in automated screening equipment and select the best possible proportion between time doctors spend in screening and that they spend in treatment. If this proportion is selected incorrectly (for example, if not enough resources are given to screening programs) then all the LS will very quickly pass down to Phase C illness which is an incurable, high death rate state. If at the other extreme all resources were to go into detection, then the detected sick would stay in line for admission-admission which would never occur. In this case the RS would not be treated and would never recover. One of the main reasons for playing games with this model is to determine the golden mean for this kind of situation. The optimal solution here may well be some kind of impulse regime for screening. Aging Update All that was said above about dynamics still disregards population aging. The described pattern corresponds to a cer- tain age stratum. The real problem now is how to introduce up- dates for aging. -5- It was decided to run in parallel prevalence dynamics equations and the population aging routine, the latter described in [4], both subsystems of the model being divided into equivalent sex-age strata and the prevalence subsystem strata being periodically fed with updates from the aging routine structure. Due to the fact that the sick people with a given disease are usually just a small fraction of the total population and due to the conservative nature of changes in sex-age structure, the aging routine is run less frequently, say, in time increments equal to one year. The time increments in the prevalence subsystem are set at 0.2 year because of the need to trace out transient effects affected by health care policies. Thus the basic model operates in the following mode: - one run of the aging routine is followed by five runs of the prevalence equations--one year passes; then one more run of the aging routine and five runs of the prevalence equations-one more year passes; and so forth. Each year any given sex-age stratum in the aging routine loses some people due to aging and their transfer into another stratum, and gains some people from a "previous stratum". The difference between the numbers of these people for a given stratum constitutes a yearly aging update for the stratum. In more technical terms, these updates are recalculated by special subroutines and added to those people contained in each stratum of each phase of the disease in each step of integration of the prevalence equations. A yearly "immigration" for a specific phase of a given stratum is equal to the fraction of people in this phase of a "previous stratum" times the portion (one-fifth) of yearly "immigration into this stratum of the aging routine. "emigration" A yearly for a phase of the stratum is equal to the fraction of people in this phase of this stratum times the same portion (one-fifth) of yearly "emigration" from the considered stratum of the aging routine. The stratum update is the difference between these "immigration" and "emigration" figures. -6- Such a simple interpolation taking equal portions o£ an aging "migration" in updates may be erroneous. Work with the basic model will clarify this matter. Conclusions A FORTRAN program for this basic model has been written and debugged. The problem now is to compile an array of test data. The first runs with primitive test data are shown in Appendix 3. After finishing the implementation of inner feedbacks, the time will come to try various decision-makins options. The flow chart of the basic model in terms of system dynamics is shown in Figure 2. The variables and equations are presented in Appendices 1 and 2. (HAGE) /-----------= / セKL q セ セ q<:-«) / Mセ <J«' I / /; / ( . / / / / / \ -,- _OS J. - /",.- I \ '? \ I \ I \ I I. ndr セ t\ セ . . . . . -r-/ セ (RAGE (B» I /./ '!.. OSPR セ I / / /./ e-- セM (RAGE (A» / / セ イN M セ M T Zalsセc[}r MR / Lセ \ \ -:e L_/ _ ADMITTANCE \ \ \ セ \' - - .................... \ \ - - - - 1--...................... セo ⦅ -f / I I I - i - - ---t-f--I 1TFRAC - ------ --------'-'0--...:::----- - --- SCREENING セM ..... "..... Bセrft セ " " ......... " ---- / I" I / / -- MANAGEMENT Figure 2 _ _ ..J I / / TREATMENT I -...) I -8- Acknowledgements This work was discussed in detail with Alexandre Klementiev. Peter Fleissner happened to squash a pair of bugs in the program. I am also thankful to James Curry, William Webb and Mark Pearson, who helped me saddle the PDP. I have also to acknowledge my thanks to GUnther Fischer, who issued a fine lineprinter plotting routine [S], which is very simple to be employed by any user. All comments are welcome and should be directed to the IIASA Bio-Medical Group. -9- REFERENCES Systems Aspects of Health Planning, Bailey, N.T.J., and M. Thompson, eds., n ッ セ エ ィ Holland/American Elsevier, Amsterdam, 1975. [2] Kiselev, A. A Systems Approach to Health Care, RM-75-31, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria, 1975. [3] Venediktov, D., et al. Health Care: A Systems Approach, CP-76,International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria, 1976, forthcoming. [4 ] Klementiev, A.A. A Computer Method for_projecting a Population's Sex-Age Structure, RM-76-36, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria, 1976. [5 ] Fischer, G. Multilevel Computer Model of World Development System - Part II, Internal Paper, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg, Aus tr ia , 1975 . -10- Appendix 1 Prevalence Sector Variables AAR(1) - aggravation rate from phase A BAR (I) - DR(1) - death rate HAGEt(1) rate from phase B 。ァイカエセッョ healthy persons' aging rate HPt(1) - healthy persons LAAR(1) - aggravation rate from phase A for latent side LAGEt(1,J) - latent sick aging rate LAT(J) - latent sick in phase J LATS - all latent sick LBAR(1) - aggravation rate from phase B for latent sick LSt(1,J) - latent sick (LD) LSDR(J) - specific death rate for non-attendent sick MR{1) - morbidity rate RAGEt(1,J) registered sick aging rate REARt(1,J) - admission rate (REAR) RECOVt(1) REG(J) - recovery rate registered sick in phase J REGS - all registered sick REMR(1) - remission rate RSt(1,J) - registered sick RW(1) - recovery weights SDR (I) - specific death rate -11- General Part Variables ADMPt(J) - admission possibility ALSCR(J) - probability not to detect a sick in screening ASPR - automated screening productivity t DSPR - doctor's screening productivity HPt(I) - healthy population in strata HPS - healthy population summed t LEV(J) - level for the delay in doctors' requirement adjustment - latent sick (detailed) latent sick fraction in non-registered population (to be screened) LSS - latent sick summed t NDRt(I,J) - natural treatment demand rate NDRD (I, J) - natural treatment demand rate density PCTDt(J) - patients that can be treated by doctors REARt(J) - real admission rate RSt(I,J) - registered sick (detailed) RSSt(J) - registered sick in phases SCREP - screening productivity SDOC t t - number of screening doctors SDSt(I,J) - rate of sick detected by screening fraction of doctor's activities in screening standard workload for a doctor (i.e. patients in phase J per doctor) TDOC t TDPHt(J) TDPHDt(J) - number of treatment doctors - treatment doctors in a phase of a disease density of treatment doctors in a phase of a disease TDRt(I,J) - treatment demand rate (detailed) TDRL - time lag in doctors' requirement -12- TDRSt(J) - treatment demand rate in phases TOTDOC - total doctors in practice TFRAC t t fraction of doctors' activities in treatment -lJ- Appendix 2 I signifies a sex-age structure; J - a phase of the disease: A, B or C. Natural Treatment Demand Rate NDR(I,J) = NDRD(I,J) • LS(I,J) NDRD is the fraction of LS in phase J that seek treatment on their own initiative. Sick Detected by Screening SDS{I,J) = SCREP • LS(I,J)/(LATS + HPS) • ALSCR(J) Here SCREP is screening productivity; SCREP = ASPR + DSPR • SDOC ASPR is automated screening productivity; DSPR is the screening productivity of a physician; SDOC is the number of doctors in screening; SDOC = TOT DOC • SFRAC TOTDOC are all the doctors in practice; SFRAC is the fraction of doctor's activities in screening; LATS are all the LS: = LATS I .I J HPS are all the HP: HP =I LS(I,J) I HP(I) I ALSCR(J) is probability to identify a Phase J LS in screening. -14- Admission Demand Rate = NDR(I,J) + SDS(I,J) TDR(I,J) Admission Demand Rate in Phases = TDRS(J) L TDR(I,J) I Patients that can be Treated by Doctors PCTD(J) = SWL(J) • TDPH(J) Here SWL(J) is the number of Phase J sick that can be treated by a doctor regularly, i.e. standard workload of a doctor; TDPH(J) is the distribution of health care resources (doctors) in phases of the disease, TDPH(J) should be proportional to the RS in phase (J): = TDPH(J) should REG(J) PEG(J)/REGS • TDOC L RS(I,J) = I REGS = L L RS(I,J) I J In practice, this equality is presumed to hold with delay: TDRL is the lag time; TDOC are the doctors (health care resources) in treatment: TDOC = TOTDOC • TFRAC TFRAC is the fraction of a doctor's activities in treatment. Admission Possibility ADMP(J) = PCTD(J) - REG(J) -15- Real Admission Rate TDRS(J) if ADMP(J) > 0, ADHP(J) = ADMP(J) REAR(J) セ TDRS(J) if ADMP(J) > 0, ADMP(J) < TDRS(J) o if ADMP(J) ::; 0 The Prevalence Equations C;; '.'. =t< .•' ( S ) セ」 ": セ ( セ Lセ 0\. I; I' Zセ セL L " l:. t, f, :" :: I.. ,<I t L I" lJ i;!. ゥセ セ I, セL ) S ( Zセ • 1 1 ) .. :J r s }Jセ =Zセ ., P ( セZN r; セゥ k セ セN :: {J .. HセI ;r'';;;: EC(' \i :: セ .; ( .... f- ,. J.S:.;.Jt i j.;' 0;:' &. :;' U, 2) 1 :) ) ;"" '" ( '" • ) .. p [セ \. セ[ l ) ) • t. ;;» , (セ , 1) U J ... L ;) (::, , ? ) セ c c c c ヲセ HP ( S ) ::..., r' (S,) + 11 T .. ( .,' セ (' li 1/. LiNエ[セL T F-' r t-' t:' r LT. i:;. i H ;.1 ( セ ) : "n • .. '. i ioi * 1-1 P ( S ) + H r,!; f. ( s ) ) r• rsHULQI]セイGKtエmjMTgdNhBecuv & pエゥ[fHUBIKZLイGヲセᄋQj c: R 5 Hセ , ;: ) == ['; セ ( ;; , 10 セ L. i; セ C Q S i ;." QNセ & :"'<:-i io' " Gr: ? ) +i \ T • r 3 , ,; ) + r, t ( Lll';; (, セ - A .. cセ U セ -Ill-; .. i", S ( :-, , ?) .. 1'1' E:; M l セ , to:,: ( セゥ r セャ • !J) + 'I T :* ( セ ( 5 • !- ) + ;J !';. ,0 ; i Hセ )) セ 4 iセ ,; f,": .. S :_' q |セ , J '* P::- (5 , Nセ )+ .3) , C l S ( セ , 1. ) :: L J ( c:; , 1 ) .• r'1 & L iセN f.: f. (i'; , 1 ) .. セャ C L5 ( セN , ? ) :: !. 3. C C セ I. t; エセH 2 ) Nセ .)1 * l l.• A II (:; セA 1:, .. (0:; , ? ) ⦅Nセ J r II r" ( (; , I'!) I)" '" t ,_ ('".n- . . IアセNL\Hセ[ヲGiイ lGZ gイセ h: r< .. !. t, At; \J セイ • LHH I S ( セL , 1 ) + (セ , L S (., , :3 ) ;; L セ ( S •.セ ) • It p (1". ,; to:. f ;, • 1 ) ) ..セ c: I) f. (. '" .. L Zセ C r.: I) ':!S 332 .( ;.' j',: 1, 3 イG[HrZゥセLQI .L.' j":ft;'CS,-.-:.) NセQN CONTINUE Qセᄋ Niセ]IエLウNHZ[セ ;'. • } l. k ;.,. r; \:; セ .. j'\ « * L セB ( S , 2 ) + vLHNMZセIQ\ゥャ 'J;": (&) .. '- 5 ( :, , 3) + + The Latent Sick FtGlJItE: 0.1b77E "'II 0.1f>ll3E vl13 --------._.__________.--______.-.-.____________________._._____._----------···---------------····---_····-----11 I I I I I' I 0.1571>" 1"11 I I 0.15ll2E e8 I I 0.1'5IilQE cGセ I I I セNQTWUf e'll ! I I I 0.1llllO'e rt" ! I I I 0.1lll"H 08 ! I I I 0.1375E C'II1 I I I I 1 0.13111F. セ・ I 1 I 11l.l308E 08. 1 I I I O.127llE IH\ I I I I 0. 12111 E '11\ I 1 III • I 2 ('17 E ,.1/\ 1 I I I 1 I t 2i. 11 7llt'. "'!l I I I l1lo11lll1lE tIIB I I 1 I l".IIC'1bE "'II I I 1 I 0.1C'1nE v.'8 t II I I I セNャcGSアe Gセi| I 111 I 1 I I 11'.1l'I('lt-F J1!l 1 I 11 I I 0.972llE セW 1 I 11 T 1 I 0.<138810 07 1 111 I I iil.'11/l53E ;»7 I 1 I I 111 1 O.87111E \'17 I I 1 1 I 11 O.831'lE '1'7 1 I I 111 lil.ol1lll7t: ",7 1 I I I I 11 0.77I?E '/'7 1 I 1 1 11 I 0.737H: (l!7 I I I I 1 0.7C'illIE ",7 11 I t ! I 1 11 C'l.b71i'f,f ,,7 I t 1 I PNQ^SWセ (1,7 I 111 I I I セNQ^ASGUe .,7 I I 1t 1 1 I 1 C'I.57l1'V1E e7 I I 11 I QOャNAISセUe '/'7 1 II I I I 1 1 I 1/l.5l"30F t;J7 lit I 1/l.1I1,QQE ,,7 I 1 t II I 1 1 I l/l.ll3SQE '-'7 I 11 I I l1l.llo.'?llF 07 1 I I1 1 I 1 1 I I I .,.3f>I;\H "7 r 1 I セN B5lE. ,,7 I 1 I II I 1 0.30113E. !.H I I 1I I I 1 0.i?b/l2E Cl7 I 1 I il.23llH ",7 1 1 I r 1 I I I 10.12010'1:: Wセエ r I 1 I 0.1f>77E I<lT I I 1 I 0.13lllt:. 11'7 I I r 1 I 1 11l.10\'1f,E 'A7 I I I I I 1 Il.b7t'M f"f> 1 I エ\ャNiヲ^セGアe viI! セN v.lb R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R_ R R _R _R セ _ Go_ゥ R_セ _セRS セS ョ\[セe "'.'013E ! 1 . セi M M MS SG S Sセ S S S S S S S S ェS S QS S S S S S S S S S S S S S S S S I 1 I 1 I I I 1 I I I I 1 I I I I 1 I I I I I I 1 I I I I I III I I I I I I 111 I I I I I I 111 I I I 1111 I I I I I I 111 I I I I I 1111 I I I I I I 111 I I I I 111 I I I I I I I I 111 I I I I I I 11 I I I I I I III I I I I 111 I I I I 11 I I I I I I 111 I I I I 11 I I I I I I I I I I I 111 I I I I 11 I I I I 111 I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I 1 I I I I I I I 1 1 I 1 I 1 1 1 I I I 1 1 1 I I 1 I 1 I I I I 1 1 1 I I I I I I 1 I 1 I 1 I 1 1 1 I 1 1 1 I I I I 1 I I 1 1 I 1 I 1 1 I I 1 I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I t I I 1 I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I 1 I I :J::' '0 '0 CD ::l 0. セN X w I セ '" I セtgljNeZ 0.b?t"n 1!'.6'lI\JE 0.SQ5QI;' 0.S8]';E 0.'57H'IE i2!.S586E. V.6 I'll '!" セヲ^ 0/:l '".b PNセOャQRe ZQセ Q\ャNセRie V'" セNUjSXGo セャ^ 0.50Q"'1: .'111 0.IIQ6"E "'I:> Q!.1I8111'O "'0 0.1l717E toll, 11l.115Q3r:: fA" 1i'.1I1Ib'll': (", PNQSBセ "''' 1Il.1l221E (/).110971: 0.3Q7?t:: 0. 'sIlII/l1: Qi.37211fO (/).'sbl'l0E 0.31171:>E M ⦅ M M ⦅ᄋ M M NM ⦅M NM セS I [ I I I t 1 I I I r I I I I (ill> I "'b T (JI, T Ph (H, M, I I I I "" PNS セ_エ "'I> '" • .5;:>?I"': p,f> <'I •.HI1I3t' .'b 0.2Q7ClE Qi" P1.21\55!: I'lb 0.2731E セGV 0.2b07E r>,11 1'1.21183'0 r"b 0.<!J';QE ,M, 1O.2?35t:: I)" PNRQpセ :'Ib 21.1QI\l>E 0" "'.18f>2E セ B lIl.173!lE (J!l i'I.lblllt:. 0" PNQᆪFアoャセ セエZM I I J I I r 1 I T T 1 T T [ r I I I I 0.131>61:. 0I.12111f 0.11171:. (/). ClQ], I:. Gl.a.,'ll!'t e'.71111l't ,:<; r 0'5 2 '5 1 Iil. b20H ('':l 「ᄋHセ セo (H, GセNiq「Be 0'5 0 •.H2/lf 05 QI.2JI33E "'; セNエRQャZ ,'0:; ・NゥA。cャセ :-0: r I T r r J _._-----_.-- Q M M M M M ⦅ᄋ M ᄋM M 1 1 1 I I I 1111111 1 I 1 1 1 1 1 1 111111 1 i!?2i?2?1'1 1 1 1 1 1 22<'2;';:0 111 t 1111111 1 2222222 1 HI 1 1 i:!;:0222221t11 111111111 1 22222222 1 1 1 :J3 1 ]33 I 2222222222 222<'22111111 I 1 11111111111 1 ! 222222222222 22222211111111111111111111 1 1 1 'n t T 122222222222222222222222 1 1 HI 1 1 I I 1 1 1 3,S3 1 I I I 1 I I 1 I 333 I I 1 1 1 1 I 1 1 1 1 1 33 1 I 1 1 1 1 1 1 3331 I 1 1 I 1 1 ]33 I I I 1 I I I 1 I 1 !J3 I I I I 1 1 1 1 I 33 1 1 I I 1 1 1 1 1 t 1 33.5 1 1 1 1 I 1 1 1 1 1 1 I 13333 1 1 1 1 I 1 1 333331 1 1 1 1 1 I I I 1 1 333333 1 1 I 1 1 I 33333333 I 1 1 1 I I I I I I I I 1 333333333 I I I I I 33333333 1 1 1 1 1 I 1 1 I 1333333 1 1 1 1 1 I 1 1 I 1 I I 1 33333 1 1 1 1 I 1 I 1 1 1 1 333333 1 1 1 I 1 1 I 1 1 1 1 333 1 I 1 1 1 1 I 1 1 1 1 1 1 I 1 1 1 1 1 I 1 1 I I I 1 1 1 I I 1 I I 1 I 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 I I 1 1 1 1 I 1 I 1 1 I 1 I I I 1 1 1 1 [ I 1 1 r 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 I 1 1 I I 1 I 1 [ 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 I 1 I 1 1 1 I I 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 I 1 1 1 1 I 1 I 1 I 1 I 1 1 I I 1 1 1 1 1 r 1 1 1 1 1 I 1 1 1 I 1 1 1 I 1 1 1 1 1 I 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 I 1 1 I 1 I I I I 1 I 1 1 I 1 I I 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 I 1 1 1 1 I 1 1 1 I I 1 1 r 1 1 I 1 1 I I 1 1 I I I 1 1 1 1 I I 1 1 r 1 1 1 1 I 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 I I 1 I 1 1 1 1 1 I 'B;:In?,;:Il ョセ The Registered Sick .. ----- .. ---.-_._-_.-.-.-._---------.-._--------_.-._-_ ... _-------------_ ..... ---.- .. ----.- .. ---- ...... I t-' -J I Admission fIGURE: 0.1171"2E '1'5 0.lIb11'IIE 1'15 セNQiUe 1''5 ii'l.1l112 111 E セGU LlI.1132H 0'5 0.1I<'32E 0'5 0.111311E 1/1'5 セNiYQャe "'5 (/l.3Q5r,E il5 ilI.38!:>61; (1'5 0.37b2E 2'5 0.3bf,n 0'5 0.3573E Pセ 0.3117QE I'!:> 0.331''5!: "'., 0.32QIE \?,5 i.31QH. "S e.3111'3E PS e.3LHiQE (''5 [C.2'l15!: 1'<; 0.28?IE ;>5 0.2727F. 1/'<; II: .2"331: セjU 0.253QE ,'5 rc. ・セャQTG\ ("5 e.23''i1i'. ,'5 セGN」RUW r"r; 0.21b3E k"'" 1Z.20b'lE. セBッ[ 0.1Q75i'. 05 "'.181lIf セNGゥ e. 178 7f (' .. BGNQVャSセ i·'S 0.IS'l'lE (.'5 "'.IS,"5E ('e; ".ll1tH. セᄋウ NQSョセ Q'. :-5 -----------._.________________.-.-._______.__.-_._.____._._______ ャエM ᄋ M ᄋ M M ᄋセM ᄋM ᄋM NᄋM M ᄋM M t r r T t r r t I t I I t I I I I I 1 1 t r 1 I I r r r r I T I r r I r r t 1 1 1 I 1 1 I I I I 1 I 1 I I 1 1 I I I 1 1 1 J r 1 1 T 1 r 1 I 1 I 1 I 1 I 1 1 1 1 1 1 ! r 1 1 1 1 J r 1 1 1 1 1 .L 1 J J 1 l T I J I I 1 セ P2?E. 1''5 I 1'.112/11:: C''i "'.11II3I1E ゥZGセ I I セQNYPiヲ 1 .,11 1 1 I I I I I 1 1 Nセaャ「e |セi I RャNWsZ_セe ('II T V'. b51l Zエセ [.""u?F ('ll 1 1 l'I.<,e2lE f'. Q X セ I t. "'II "'II '·'11 "II "II I I 1 1 セNiェHGャエ セBL| T I I ".1l7(,\?t BNSW「Rセ ·lil.b71IlF.(·<, T i r セB|S セB|セB|sャセ ェセ S ャSB|ェセS jSセUjS S S S I 1 1 1 I 1 I 1 1 1 1 I 1 I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I 1 1 1 I I I I I I I i I 1 I 1 I 1 1 I I I I I 1 I I I I I I I I I I I I I I 1 I I I I I I I I I I 1 1 1 I I I I 1 1 I 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 11 1 I I I I I 11 I I 222 I I I I 11 22 I I I I 111 I I I I I 11 222 I I 1 122 I I I I I I I I 11 22 I I I I 1 2 I I I 11 22 I I I I I I I 1 22 I I I I I 11 2 I I I I I 11122 I I I I I 111 22 I I I I I 11111 22 I I I I I I 11111 22222 I I I I I I 111 22222 I I I 1112222 I I I I I 1122 I I 1 I I 1122 I I I I I 122 I I I I I I I I I I I 12 I 22 I I I I I I I I I I I I 2 I 2 I I I I I I 12 I I I I I I I I I I ? 13333333333333 1 I I 3 3333 1 I 21 I I 33 I 2 I I I I I 3 I I I I I I 33 3 2 I 3 I I I I I 33 I I I I I 3 I I I I I 2 3I I 3 I 3 I I I I 2 31 I I I I I 3 3 I I I I I 1 13 1 3 I I I I 1 I 33 2 I I I I 3 33 I 1 I I I I 1 3]3 I 13 I 1 I I I I I 3333 I 2 I I I I I 1 I 1 I I 33333333 1 23 J I I 1 I I I I 1 I I I I 1 3 I I I I I I I I I I I I I 13 I I I I I I I 1 I I 1 I I 1 1 I I 1 I I ••• • ••••••• • • ••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••• I t-' OJ I Demand for Admission --_IGURE: .... -._.- F f'" !C.7?4'';I: 0. THJC'lE PI, 1/1. b'lo;o;t (." 1!.1!1l10t. セQA PNQBセf Vlb 0.10520fo: ".!l:,\ 7"t QuNARZアセ r.M'lBhfo: セNカ Qセ Ph V" 0.5 'l III t. \, .. セINUWGャィヲ f'l., \!.51051f '1/l セNG S5c''''fo: " .. !'.53"I F· セGiL k!. '>? t!lf. ., .. QNセPWGe .'11 "l.1I'l271: ,'I> (1.<l7e21: "n セNTBSWf ('f, ,"I! セNQiT_f ゥQGNTSWヲセ^ <l.4?"'21:. \!I. 11I1IS 71: "' • .5'l12!; f'b C"" "'I! セjNSWB エZ l'b 0 • NUィゥ_セ 0. セTWjQイ⦅ ""'. ('''' cQNhSセf "''' tol, HIi'lF- セ .. e..30113E '.'b 'l.2/l'l'lF. セB C'i.n53t "!> PNRBLG^ャセ f'b III'" VI.c!4l>3t ヲセN[ZSQAf IJ& t'I.c!173t ;,b ゥNセ \AL_。セ⦅ "0 _QXセ セ _セ 1 7 j G I:: v: to, 0 •• S'llit O.ltlU'lE I'" V'''' f.I:, • イセNャ 'I'!1.l1:. Bセi • 115 q E ,\" PNQセi '"" セL ZANセヲッアBエ '<l. セ Zセエ[ ?llc;t. '" • ':i 7 '1tlt ャゥGiNTSWセ " • <! 1\ q II E l'" '" 'J VI" NセB "'. 11111 'If ,15 セNGャW[Ghᄋ v ___________ • • • _____ . - . - . _____________ • _ _ _ _ ft _ _ _ _ • ______ • • --------.----------------------------------11 I I 1111 I I 1 1 1 1 1 t 1 1 I 1 111 1 1 I I I I 111 I I I I I I I I 111 1 I T I I I 111 I I I I I I I 1 I I I I 1111 1 I I I I I 11 I I r I I I 1 I T 1 111 I I I I I I I I I 1 I 1111 I I I I I I I I 111 I I 1 I I 1 I I I I I I I I I 11 I 1 I I 1 T I I 111 1 1 I I 1 I I 1 1 1 I 1 I 11 1 I I I I I 1 I 111 I 1 I I I I I I 1 I I 1 11 I I I 1 I t I I 1 I I I I I 111 I I I r 1 1 I 1 I I 11 I I I J 1 1 I J till I 1 I I I I I I 11 I I 1 I I I I I I 1 1 I I1 r I I I I I I 1 1 I 1 I I 111 t I I 1 I 1 I 11 I I 1 1 I I T 1 1 I I I I I I 11 I I I I 1 1 I 1 1 11 I I I I I I 1 I I I III I I I I I 1 I I 1 I I I I 1 11 T I 1 1 I I I I 1 I I t1 I I I I I I 1 I 1 I 1 I I 1 1 11 I 1 I I 1 1 1 I I I 11 1 I I I I I I I1 I 1 I I 1 I 1 I I I I I I I1 I T 1 I I 1t 1 I I I I I I I 1 1 I 1 I 1 1 I 1 I 1 I t1 I I I I I I I I I 11 I I I 1 I I 22222222222 1I 1 I I I I 1 22222222?22222222222222222222222222222222222 122??"2222222?2222222?2222 I I II 1 1 I I I _ _ _ セ _セR_ _R 」A I I I 1 1 I q33 11 1 1 I I I I I 1 1 I I I I 1 I 3'133 I 1 I 1 I 1 I I .5BB3 1 1 1 1 11 1 1 I 1 .BB3U I 1 1 1 1 1 I 1 I I 33J33B I I I I T 1 1 I 3B.B33333 1 I I I I 1 I 1 I I 1 Sbセ I I 1 I I I 1 I I 1 333333 I I 1 I T 1 1 I I 1 33333.531 T I I 1 I 1 1 I I I I I 333333 1 I I I I 1 I I I r I I 33H3333 I I T T I I 1 I I 333333333333333333333333333 1 I 1 I I 1 1 I J 1 J 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 I ----------------------------------------------------------------.------------------------------_._--- I t-' \..C I Population Growth TGuRE: ._ .. -._----セ r,. <' I b ll". "'I P.'.<'126t Lセq (' • c! C'l!' 2F ('Q f-'.203ClE ClQ セNicャB Q セL "'.1'1521: r:;'1 t) • I 'If 'IF ;IQ lil.l/ll>"iE ,'Q (l.18;>;>1-. ('1'1 0.177'lE ,'Q "'.17351- "(j セNャ「GRe ,;,Q 0.11,4/1f :tlQ i'.lb;1"ic [""I BGNQ「Rセ GLセg ('1.151/11:: 0.la751: iJ. 1 (l3?f. !i\.13PIIF 0.Hu5f ゥセ .13f'l セ "J.125/lE (J.121"iF. ".t 111 E ェcGセ (''I ('1 ",'1 ".l1?RF .... Q UJll\5t ",Q r,. BNiゥャ。セ [,q c>'l ("q ;1'l (''I 0.4'l7H ('I. ,''I 'l5 (I (I" ;'1\ ,'/l iII.ClII<IE V, e./l1,7bE セ 8 0."2421'. ,,1\ t1,78[I,IIt [t.O kl.737S" c-Ii ". bClu It {Gセ セB b"iiC07t •It! ",,II GャN「BWセe BN「Scャセ CI\ (1. k). '5 ;>(' セN I' 'I u 17?F ., I! '-. OJ ZGXェセ I). セN ,'/l jCl0(1e ;'1\ 547;>tf セ[ セ ,j •.セ\QNhエZ "", セZGゥNRィョエ セj[ Bセ "' • 2 I b 'I E (1/1 1l.113'5E ['.13011': ヲGセ ',1 , セiL l1>t :",' 1 "" " • a セ 3 i! "- '-'7 - <1 • 12 1 01 i:. :"3 •••••• =&= •• _______ • __ N M セ M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M R R R R R R r 1 I , 1 I 2222222222222222222222 I I I I .222222222222222?22222222 I I I 'total I I I I I R_セ I r I 1 I I I I 11111111111 I 2?<'?2222??22222??i? I I , I I I I I I I \ I I I 1 I I I I I I 1 \ 1111 It 11\ 1 1 I 11 III I 111 I \ II! 1111 1 11\1 1 I 111 I I 11 11 I 1 1 1 I 1111 I 11111 111 111 II I I I I 1 I I I r T I I I I I I I I T I I I I I I I I I r I 1 I I I I r I I I 1 I I I I I I I I I I I 1 I I I 1 I I I I 1 I I 1 I I I I I I T I I I 1 I I I I I I I I I 1 1 I I I I I I I 1 I T 1 I I I I I I I I I I T I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I r I I I I I I 1 I I I 1 I I I I 1 I I I 1 1 I I I I I I I 1 I 1 T I I I I I I I 1 I r \ I I I I I 1 I I I r 1 I I I 1 I I I I L I 1 1 I I I I I I I I 1 I 1 I I I I I I I r r I I I I I I I I I I 1 1 I I I I I I I I I 1 l I 1 I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I T T I I I I I I I I I r I I T I I I I I I 1 I I I 1 I I I I I I 1 I 1 I I I 1 I I I I I I 1 1 I I I I I I I I 1 T I I I I I T I I I I I 1 I I I I I I I I 1 T 1 I I I r r I I I I I 1 I I I I 1 I I I I 1 ! I I I I I I I I T I 1 I I I I I I I 1 r I I I I I I I I I I I 1 I 1 I I I I I I I I I 1 I I I I I I I I 1 I I I I I I I I I 1 I I 1 I I I I I I I I I I 1 I I I I I I I r I I I I I I I I I I I 1 T I I I I I I I t I t I I I I セ セ|ィ・。ャエy , ........... --_._---.-.---------_. __ .. _- .. _----- .. __ .--._- .. -----.-- ............. - .................... s ••••• ,,:; " r; :;. A"· &= ••••••• ••••••·.&•••••••••••••••••• ••••••••••••••••••••••••• セ , セ セ .. I セN セ Tセ II I N 0 I -21- APPENDIX 4 c•••••• セ •••••••• c •••••••• c.c •••••• c ••••••••••••••••••• ••••••••••••••••••• c: c: c: IS sャセt MOQtL OF 6 Xaセic セtlaeセ CARE SYSTEM C C tfl1 P l.1ClT セeal iセteg セ T, (6-Z) spNnLi セLs niセtNinuNindexNphaseLns OIM!NS1QN PN(23"PCSM(23),PUO RO(23"PVH(23',PVIH(23', & & & & & & aアHRSILXNセhTgヲmpGlrBej lセaHRSILGsョrイャmNge セeqHRSINLGrsoBadmp tョーセHSスLPphdINorRABsQGc alscqSBnorH_ャLINョセptdAw LS1(23',PREPC(23,.LF.V(3),LS2(23),LS3(23"X RS(!"XLS(!),UPSI(3, c PQセensio outQHSセILオRイ「GNV oljtQRイエUSLNucセI & COMMON/PLOT/OLJ T1,OUT2,OUT3.PNP,TM c- • • • • - - • • - - •• - - • • • • • • - • - • - • • TM AD. AS セeg tip セZeg ャtGB iareUOセo mdc ismu Onoセ c c c PCDJ,PCOM HPS,LATS,REQS.L.T(3),REGC3"CT,LEV,PRIORT(23) C ("Sl(l',R5(1.1)', & & & & & C C HrsRヲャGLセUH|LRQGN HセsSHャLNセAHQLSGIL (LS1(l',LS(1,1)), HlDセHQILlsHQLRᄏL (lS3(l'.L8(1,3,) C ecセ laiャ u ge (OUTlil (1) ,aun (154". & (OUT22(1),DU T2f154') C • • • • • • • T セ PUT S • • • • • • • ._---_.---. C C C C POPULATHiN PN C C C C C C C C C C C C C deセt セatf ャセ UtセN a エセ STwATA pcセij セit ratセ P II "iU'l PERINATAL htaセ RATE oゥ|iセscp SEX . . . .. - . . P.AT J('J PCQJ PC D(1 • • • • -22- c ョセa iセte「raon PERIOD c I I'd EGIH 11 r:' t.' .[lTpr,p, SP AN c c stセum Df.PTM, NlIMI3ER OF STRATA c STQATIIH l'E"PTH, ageセ T? f\lS c T1 c • • • •• . c• • - - c c t c ------------_ .... _---.-.-._--c Pr:lPIIL4'TlChi IN STIHTA ANI') eセt DC-SEASE PHASe:S c Lーセ LS, RS c c c OEATH PATES セエ STRATA ョセ c c sヲtaセ c SPECIFIC セtaエg se R , L51)q c c セatセ イセ PHASES oセa STRATA, MOR8IOITV RATE c agセr vatiPn Lqセa Lァaセ LセaN LfGセl MR c c ANO nujUセQ r sthgieセ c recovヲセ r;EMQ c c . .. - . -- .. .. - . .. Liセp c c c c c cc c c c c c c c c c c c c c c c c eセイt LAG IN sセotc o ADJUSTMENT tセ meセiオ セ TORL STEP セuitaセg・tni c: . . . -- - ---- . -- -. . . . . . . -r.l'T セ _._._--_TO.... _.- .•. -.-.-. !t·'PUT JL YTv セa・」rp TO DF.TEC T A SICK IN sGセgtcod AUTOP-lHEI.l At..iD ASPR, NUMBfR OF sセotcqo セa TQTQOC, STANDARD gnイセfエrcs セiヲhイ tセ mtaセ t noituXiwtセAd oセa FOP oa l\セョゥ セu{iHULアRI FORMATC/I2) gセineエrcァ SFRAt Lcaセft lセ IRPアLセHoaer ケョカitcuo セp セpso セQ c 922 gセine rcs AL.SCo( Ar) lr「tLonmscp d ー j iRtLエ naセs B ーッptョL セ DOCTOR • • -23- セ adcULアセSI to P cLsfセ cLtfrac セ aセc Lアセ I セ alscmLaUpアLdsprLsセl E.A W( c; • q V: S) セZ IQ YLshGaエセ D:;i ,., セャ{U QfAr.·C':i,9tl) UH)q '1e. A uCr;,9111 BGiセ QE.ACCS,91?) .... セ RE/Io!IoI I_QYL[c IiaZ fセ IRQアNscGhZeセ AAR IRQYLUcoaエセ セaX IRQアLUco セ LA.R QUGC5,912) lXaセ prセpc セ aocULYQSI rエaセH」[LアセWG I;l latBlatLregsLセ g fAn C5 , q ((18 ) Fl Lセ Ii'U[)(S,q",ql pcセGB セeaPH」[Lアエ・I PUDRU c c•••••••••••••••••• : ••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••• C C on 1;01 1.1,2'3 pnciャᄋpnHiGJQセ N UM·l.-FlREPCCT) I1P (I) .1.)t-hPN (t) l/.PREPC (I) BLpセh I) Y.hLATS LS(I,I)·Y*LATC1) lUHiLRINyJlatHセI LSCI,31·v*LAT(3) vNャHBGセfNgs rsHャN IᄋyJセ gHャI rsHiLRINvJセe HRI セsHiLSINy regHSI C セPQ セotiue C C C SCQE€NING ytiv tcセGjrp C ャotcNdエセP screpNTセKoDエtJfa TCOC.TQTDOCtTFRAC c c•••••• M ⦅NセM M M ⦅N セM⦅N C C __•__ -_•• ⦅Nセ Of TO エセt nuセreq pセioア snoitaセgftセj セi TOTAL noitaluァセp ShOTF2QP/OT "-, I NT. C:iT + • II:j , c liM.'?. 00 605 hGセU |iBGN jセKャIセ 1.1,1\15 (1) T''''.12) DO iェutャイ LᄋセN 410 I a l,3e.b THE ••_•••_- •••••••• _--.- •••••. SECTOR ecn lavセrp INTEGRATION -24- 001?CUal1i. セsP cオtGHiI。セN OI)T3 r5?) a ,.I"" (ALLIco tLraeセLlrotLrcslセLョ ッセLウrNUlLpセNl sLーセrcs tiセoa OQ セPQ WN・セ 11.81,3 ャevHセI。Qcrlエ eイLHセIO ヲMgs t。セ c lA.f<JH IャイアNセH sオエrK taャ セph。l tc c DO fl0B I'< a l, セ pegckINキegHセ}Oキegs lセtイkINャセtHセ}Olセt セ iteイ「LYセaI セPX c T, GO bbf:, Ka geセLtal セuLlato LUgeBNstalLspセ l.NS pcセmHセGNpエsmイセIOQP セN Pu,.,,,('l (if) .PU!)IoW (1\) 11 NZGhセ NPセ QOGセH osN}kHセus NPセ ャOGセH dsャᄋGセc osl NPセ sOIセHキm。IセH セ Nセ ャOIkHセqNIセH セ Nセ jQOIkGセme 。Gkイセmエ NP セャOGセHraセNI Hセa NセP QOIHi raセ。IkHqa・ N・PエャQOGセH_ッia N I\iHra l NセP QOIkHセaXャ。Iセイ Vbl イオセエt c NPセ QOPセ scp。オセ sエp 66& r: c C ****PEGJM:**** C ****t*t** •• *** C C C C ••• **** ••• _ •••• DO 5Q117l C セaBsLエ。t •••• ** ••••••• e C C C IN neセbos *. ヲセt セtN iセNe C paXro。セN DO Q Zセ laU,1fl.? pabrHGINpaアGゥャイN KャI jャIセイQ 100 r: (1) *PN (I) C C C C C C pセPlatio AGING セ ャtセo •• _-_ ••• _-._-._---_.--.- -25- c c c ****.*.**.** c 00 1fl :-1,23 C ***.***.**.* C C pUセifcsIJH IF (t-j)21 c C NON * ーカエセサイIipcdemJpnHiI c c 11 PE0PLE: セlo ** IJ. (l • - pcsGセ (I , ) 11 PC 0 E セ II) Fl CSf" I (1 • • U) 1" C \'1,1'5, 1b childセfNnZ ex ) 1(11., P\lIoJ(I()·PVIH(I) GO TO 17 c-·· ••••.•·• __ •.c c c C YOuTrtsl 12 pvセHuIiセviセH IJpcoj pvセHsIipvihHSIJpcoセ GO Tr'l 17 c-····_...--_·_-c c C 13 AOliL.T PEOPLE: KIX+?, P\l1ol (IC) IPtJ IH (J) GO TO 17 c---------------c C C ELCERLV FE0PLE: 15 pvhH_ Gi m Lセ KーカihH_|I uNH| Mーイ sm セ I J t。 pcoAセ」オJ H RIO QNᄋu ーviセイR_IM coeセJp HR I GO TO 17 c------------_.c c COLD PEllPL.E: 1b pvイャHセSIN i _R pvihHセSIN・G c·_·_·······_·-c C 1 '1 r. 0 I\i Tt セZ[ 18 セョL rI) JF Ii pAセ ( 1) + 0 TPOP '/l (P V" ( I) - P v 1M ( 1) • P5 セI C C C* C * 'II 'II * * * • 'II'll * * * * * * * * * * * * * * -26- J UL 4 1:3 I S;l I 97'" i-: AI'" • セ IJ, I, E セ C C•••••••••••• c ••••• :.c ••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••• 1 C nn LOセ F セj f 3:3 Ql セLャcN i Hセ ) NAセ C C . .**.* •••••••• *. C Dn 333 AS=l Lアセt C •• *.* •• ** •••••• c c c c c c .. -.- .. -._._---------_.-.- C G J A セLゥ L' P U A T I; セ S 1/,; 0 • I ゥセ D E.X (S) ifHエセoNャI QPセ LQPセ|L セ R rye QセP エセQ SLQNセs hp Nセ IeSaィpHsjNェHャ 1101 YL S (Pfol;'SF.).0. セN pN l"PO ャc_セjpNセa・セッ GO Tn 111'rn c----.-------...····c 1002 NセsHエIᄋtacLinrャ セsHーINthacイLinョrU_ セsHャ。tッacLエndpSI セlsHQIᄋUt・ackGLiョ xlUHセINtacLindャDG⦅ セlHSINsヲェcULャndj セィpNstacHLiI セpーNク_KキsHQIxrUcSli。} c C 1003 セsiNqUHLQIKRS lsiᄋHLQIKャセRUS c c fBセipNh (!;) K セ s Q K l s i pセ NfGvャ ッQHUI PIM.PVH(S) II 1• P EPoi I P NP to 2 • p 1,.1 I X P セ F' c 00 Q セR pセaseNャLS セageHセLphasヲINxrsHpセaseINuセM scU[pセaUeIJuャ 1102 lageHsLpセNseINxlsHpnasエINオRNlsc LpセaseINオャ h「geHセG]xhセNuzᄋmセHsGMuャ C 33 t CONT nuE C C••••• e •••••••••••• : ••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••• C -27- c c c CALLIco tLraeセLlrotLrcslaLoセ nLsrN lLph lキウLpNヲrcセHtiセoa •••••• - ••• ---.--- •••••••• - •••••••••••••••••••• -- ••••••• C C 00 32q DO 32q 329 C C セNQLS セ。LャNs セntc INeセtHkGKrea csLkI c c c c EwUATIONS .... _.-- .•. _._.- .. -... ·C dセNHchpcUIエrsc LQIKrXHセLRIKrsc LSIKlsc LQIKlsc LRIKセsc LャI N •• セcsセcsIMrsH LSIJsoセcsIMlsH LSIJlsdrHsI Q イhpHUIKpscセLャ KrsHGL_MIKlsc LエIKlsc LRI MORB.MRCS)*HPCS) IャLsH rJIscキセNカッcer IゥLsc rJIsHrmeセNsimeセ AAGGR.AAR(S)tRS(S,l) XNgイ セ ・arHsIJア LRI la g rᄋlセa HsIJl c LャI c c c c l・ag rᄋ b HsIJl Lセャ セpHsINh cセ KdtJHrfNcovMm rX uセJhpcsIKセagecsI IFCHP(5) .LT. 0.) セpcsINPL rsH LQINqUcsLQIKセtJHremisMa g rMdrJ sH LQIMrecovK rGgeHULQKセacsI • C rsHLRGNセcIKotJagMXdemi & ;AGE(S,2)+REARC5,2)) C rscLSINセHKdtJXagMo & rTgecsLSIエセaU C LSCS,1)·LSCS,1)+QT*CMORB-LAAGGR-OR*LSCS,1)+ LAGECS,l)-REAR(S,l)) & C lscALRIᄋNKotHagセMbrJ & C C & C lagecsLRIMrヲセQ lscLSGᄋHIKイケtJ、agrMセ lagᆪcsLAIMセfNォHS C 00 332 セNQLS .LT. 0.) IFCLSC9,K) .LT. エfcrsHセLkI 0.' セsc LセQNP NP IkLsc セ -28- JUL 4 13150 197& PAGE 8 fNセャa CONTINUE 332 C 3]3 セd tinue C************************************************************** . C DO 1109 1(.1,3 セe HセINreセHi IOregs latckIᄋlatHi IOセats to alNhpsKlatsKrAセs U9 U"' ·I1I. DO &06 911111 I.l,NS UM.UM+PN(I) WRITE(6,900) T, ュerLtalLmu lato Ls。erLstalLspセ 'WRITE Cf., 98a) EIoJT nois moaセYLxWHtamroセ IOANセャfSpAセL C !ee CONTINUE C•••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••• • •••••••••••• C WRITE (",1055) le!5 Goam tHRセHOI CALL ORAWER(CUT1,3) CALL ORIWER(OUTI2,3) CALL DA.WfR(OUTi,3) C'LL ISLRtuocpeセir CALL DAAWERCOUTJ,c) WAlT! (b, 1051) CALL EXITI STOP cleee セaite (&,920) STOP c • •••••••• ••• •••••••••••• •••••• ••••••••••••••••••. C••••••••••••••••••••••• C FOR MAT S C I C "e C セQP 901 NGセjLxR ANGセ}ー・LxGャOLSNTifUーSNLセR iLNRGIᄋNGHPXctNmroG IOS tnA alGLxャ GyセtlaehGLxX Ga eyGLxQ IGN cPXQ HtNmroG SICK',!X,'AEGD.IICK', I 902 YxLGto Gl LAxLGto aセ セormGtHi i 903 1ft. ge5 formatHOセVNQLRfVNSI LョセmatHOfUNSLセfVNSLUfXNQI ------t--- "7 908 -- 91' - 910 '11 912 ·U 1051 FROM POP') iRLゥx GTNQLix セTNQLRx iャL x fTNQLャx fTNQLix f5.3,tX,F5.3,lX,,'.2,IX,".3) FORMAT(/2C1C7 F5.3/),2F5.3/), lC1F5.1/),2F5.]) FORMATC/F5.3, 1F'.3) FORMAT(/i(9F8.1/), 5F8.1, fOAMATt'!Ct0F7.2/), 3F'.2) FORMAT(/2(10Fll.l/), 3F&.I) GormatHOSHWfセNSOIL 2F8.3) forセatHOSHWf「NROIL 2F6.2) セormatエOScWセXNセOIL 2F8.5) formatHQ XPHBGIQ PxLGproイNセam TER"'INATEO') -29- c c c c c --- •. ----- .••••.•..••••. c C C CALlING 'OEL.V' BE ioeセgエ セa セtNl ・efoセ shセuld tセヲ •• イセit al coセ it dns FOR 'L' C C C セe LセG Qセ 'T' iセ 'l,' ts 'OT' iセ C C tセ」 tセ tセエZ vaセilfN TO OELAY TME Nfセ Lセevalセd LrNヲteセ rap IN THE DELAY, lセvelacイZijBGulVteo n」エイaセgNftセi Npセts C n:LAhLIT L.L+DTt CIC-DELA'f) "?E'TLJR'" ENO c c c c C C C•••••••••••••••••••••••••• : ••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••• C C c ••• ------_.-.- •••-- C IFCY·') stoセ 10Vl 202 Qセ L」・セN_ S ャ・セ[ !t<ipE)(·t セeturセj IFCI-!) 203 204 RセTLRP。L_セU PJD!X·2 returセᄋェ 20S 20& iセciM。I GPセLRセ「LセPW INDI!X·3 RETURN l'cr-5) 207 2M It. nE l(. 4 ャ・Nセ RPb Y PfT\JFI\l IFCI-?l' 20q lNCf)'.S 2U セQ LRQセL_Q retuゥ]QセZ 211 212 ifciᄋセRG |セ L_QRLセQS inゥjeセN「 RET IJR N 213 iBGdセxXW Fi'ETURk,i c c oセe / -30- c•••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••• , c fuセctio C stbackiLnョセopI •••• - •••••• --- •••••• --- ••• C セエ[al セGNlf OIMEt\:5IO,., IQHーョセ Cn. セ セ CNI C\ Eii AI F f. M FR, 11 A l FR c c GO NGRLセ ULT SLR QHot oセi STEtACIIC.l. 1 R etャAェZセG 2 J.I-l STB.ACKIPOP (J) 3 STAACK.ffMFR*pnp(!) セetliセ G retuセ Nェ 4 st・acセNmlfrJpoHSI 5 RETUPN J.Y-2 straci\NセofG (J) rfNtuセn stセa」セNー。 HRPIKpo c・ャI RETuRN ENO c C c•••••••••••••• セ c sueQOuTINE IcotLraeldsNBセLrlphsecHtiセoa c .••••.••.•.•.•.•••••••••••-.-.••• --- •.•.•••••• --- ••.••••••••• II ••••••••••••••••••• ••••••••••••••••• ••••••••••••••••• , IMPLICIT IzMaセlr INfEt;F.H J, I 1 , GセY oiセensャ swlHSILhpイRcセrAnoN & reac_SNILtopセH oiセrャPn & & & セsHSGLrcIゥnoRt OIMENSION IセLQUHStuoLIF QUH_tucLIセ Q H tuo DIMENSION LSA(SlJ,LS8(51),LSCC51), セsaHUQILrVc AOMC51,3),OEM(51,5" nOOCS1),TOT(51) comセ nOsオmセQ coセ nOplNoti c & mpsLl セLrs LlUウ h Lョt levHSILprio tHRSI aUT1,OUT2.0uT3,PNP,TM INTEGeR TM EQUI v ALE セi CE"f LSAC 1) , 0UTI t1 • 1) ) , HlsセcャILoutQRᄏ CL5C(\1,OU T1Cl,31l, & & & & & HrsTcQINoutLセ cセsヲAHャILoutQGU cセHQjLIvtエャN HaoセᄋcQ、GLャjt。エNI & & HaoセQLSIut・Nj & Cr:E"'Cl,1),CIJT2Cl. t1 ) ) , HadセQNRjLoutャG -31- juセ i 09113 エYQセ XXX.F PAGE 3 coAセャLRButイUI a WEMC1,]),OUT(l(1,&» EQUIVALENC! COOO(1',OUT3rl,1)), (TOTC1),OuT3(1,2) & & C C C TM.TM+1 c c IoIPS - 0. 00 399 11-',23 - mpセ 3 •• C C hpsKmセ・ャI J-l,! LSSCJ)10. RSSeJ)-0. 00 401i'1 11-1,23 LSSCJ)-LSS(J)+LSCI1,J) RSSCJ)-RSSCJ)+RSClt,J) DO 400 40121 C -c- RSSS-0. LSSS-0. 00 401 J-l,3 rs Mセs UKrs cjI セs GMls Klウs・jI 4Q11 --- c---' c Z-HPS+L5SS Z-SCREP/Z c c·.·................•..······· - -- c-' ·.· 00 500 J-l,3 c 500 c c TOPSCJ)-0. DO 500 11-1,23 SOSeIl,J)-Z*AL5C R CJ)*LSCI1,J) NQRell,J)INOROCI1,J)*LSCT1,J) TDRCll,J)_NORCll,J)+soseIl,J) TORSeJ,.TORSCJ)+TORCll,J] tdph|ャMセN 00 Ul1J J-l,3 tophHjIMrs HjIOsキセcjI TDPMW-TOPHH+TOPH(J) 300 C C C coセtinue 00 81et J-l,'! pctoitopセcjIOtophwNto cNswlサjI admpM ctoセrs cjI ··..·········· . -32- JUL 2 09113 1916 xセvN PAGE q c c c C 450 00 Q51 11-1,23 reNセHiQLjIMPN 451 GO TO C 460 C 470 ifHadmpNtョrセHjセI セtャ 11-1,23 PRIORTCI1)-rORCI1,J)/TORS(JJ セeaqHiQLjINaompJ rjortHエャI GO TO c C 480 800 812 810 アWPLT・PLセXP 00 471 481 セjoX PGNBセ 00 481 iャ・ LセS IjLャイ」セotNIjBiHセae CONTINUE OEMCTM,J)-TORSCJ) AOMCTM,J)el!l. DO 812 11-1,23 admHt LjINadmHt LjIKreNセcAQLjI CONTIi'liUE C LSA(TM).LSSCl) L.SA (TM) Mlsセ (2) LSC: (T101) eLSS (31 R5ACTM).RSSC1) (T/I,) .qss Cil Xsセ rscHtmINセs cSI OOO(TM).HP5 s セKs lᄋsphNImtH ot RETURN dセe
© Copyright 2026 Paperzz