Pursuing the Bird of the Forest:
Advances in Ethnographic and Participatory Methods
C. Roncoli et al
Climate Forecasting and Agricultural Resources Project
University of Georgia
Photo by Christine Jost
Knowledge is like a bird of the forest, one person alone can never catch it (Ewe proverb)
Structure of this review
Ethnographic and participatory methods
Cognitive and cultural setting (front-end)
Cultural models of climate
Local forecasting knowledge
Representing probability
Constructing credibility
Decision processes and decision makers (back-end)
Learning forecast responses
Characterizing decision makers
Understanding constraints
Institutional environment
Conclusions
Ethnography and participation: strengths
• ‘Insider’ point of view
•Contextual understanding
•Rapport with research subjects
Ethnography and participation: weaknesses
•Reliance on key informants may introduce biases
•Public nature of participatory methods favors prominent,
educated members of community
•Group-based methods obfuscate difference, dissent
•Emphasis on local context
makes findings less
generalizeable
•May neglect structural
analysis of power relations
that local to global
Cultural and cognitive context:
cultural models of climate
•Seasonal calendar (local classification of time)
•Activity calendars (constraints, entry points)
•Significant event calendars (rainfall and yields)
Ziervogel and Calder 2003
Cultural and cognitive context
cultural models of climate
Moore typology of rain events, Central Plateau, Burkina Faso, CFAR project
Cultural and cognitive context
cultural models of climate
Morgan MG, et al (2002)
Risk communication: a
mental model approach.
Cambridge University
Press
Hansen et al 2004
Influence diagram of farmer mental model of climate variability
Cultural and cognitive context
local forecasting knowledge
•Key informant interviews with local experts,
•Focus groups to compile inventories of
indicators and their attributes
•Surveys to validate the distribution across
representative samples of the population.
•Ranking of indicators according to levels of
confidence
Luseno
et 2003
Hansen
et al 2004
Cultural and cognitive context
local forecasting knowledge
Ziervogel and Calder 2003
Luseno et al 2003
Cultural and cognitive context
local forecasting knowledge
“relatively malleable knowledge that is finely tuned to the
continually changing circumstances that define a particular
locality” (De Walt, in Eakin 1999).
Hansen et al 2004
Cultural and cognitive context
representing probability
Examples from farmers’ daily life
more effective than instructional
games or tools
Cultural and cognitive context
representing probability
Operationalizing comprehension of terciles (Phillips and Orlove 2003):
a) least two outcomes are possible
b) at least some possibility of the occurrence of three possible outcomes
c) highest ranked outcome likely to occur but not for certain
Roncoli et al 2005
Cultural and cognitive context
representing probability
The role of media
Cultural and cognitive context
representing probability
SOFITEX (cotton export company) memo to field
agents, announcing that ‘meteorological predictions
seem to indicate a ‘good’ rainy season
Cultural and cognitive context
constructing credibility
Luseno et al 2003
formal education, off-farm income urban
residence, access to roads appear to be
associated with lower level of confidence in local
predictions among Bolivian farmers and East
African pastoralists (Valdivia et al 2000, Luseno
et al 2003)
Cultural and cognitive context
constructing credibility
Ziervogel 2004
Cultural and
cognitive context
constructing credibility
… it must be recalled that at the beginning of the season
farmers were afraid because of a difficult onset of the
rains, some farmers had to plant five times before rains
got established in July. Today we can thank God that
until now we continue to receive rain and the harvest will
be good this year, there is the proof (sorghum field)…
Decision processes and decision makers
simulating farmer responses
C. Gladwin (1989) Ethnographic decision tree modeling. Sage Publications.
Decision processes and decision makers
simulating farmer responses
Hansen et al 2004
Decision processes and decision makers
simulating farmer responses
Ziervogel 2004
Decision processes and decision makers
characterizing decision makers
Archer 2003
Decision processes and decision makers
characterizing decision makers
Roncoli et al (2001)
livestock and assets
Finan and Nelson (2002)
production of subsistence crops
cash crop sales
livestock assets
Decision processes and decision makers
characterizing decision makers
Livelihood portfolios (Bolivia, Peru)
Valdivia et al 2003
Decision processes and decision makers
understanding constraints
Information is not enough! (O’Brien et al 1999)
Land (Vogel 2000)
Inputs (Phillips et al 2001)
Seed (Ingram et al 2002)
Farm credit (Vogel 2000, Phillips et al 2001)
Animal traction (Phillips et al 2001, Ingram et al 2002)
Decision processes and decision makers
understanding constraints
•Zimbabwe, Phillips et al (2001) found that among 225 farmers: many considered
climate forecasts to be accurate but few used them.
•In Kenya and Ethiopia, Luseno et al (2003) found that among 300 pastoralists few
used local or scientific forecasts.
•In Argentina Letson et al (2001) found that more than half of those who heard the
La Nina forecast of 1998/99 did not change their decisions.
•In Bolivian and Peru Valdivia and Gere (2000) found that, while most farmers were
aware of the El Niño/La Niña, only a few innovators adapted their production.
•In Brazil, Lemos et al (2002) found that few farmers in northeast Brazil believed or
used scientific forecasts.
Decision processes and decision makers
understanding constraints
Roncoli et al 2005
Decision processes and decision makers
Institutional environment
Pfaff et al 2002
Decision processes and decision makers
Institutional environment
Ziervogel and
Downings 2004
Sustainable livelihood approaches
Ziervogel and Calder 2003
Valdivia et al 2003
The way forward….