Methodological critic of
“Resisting the Protectionist Temptation”
by Helen Milner
Designing Social Inquiry
Ayoung Kang (32001)
(1) Restate the author’s major research
question and theories (or hypotheses) in
“if, then” type of generalization
Background:
Int’l Economy in the 70s
Recession, oil shocks, Trading Bloc (EC),
Increasing Non-tariff barriers,
Violation of GATT regulations,
Protection for both import and export industries
Milner insists:
However, the int’l system remained relatively
liberal.
Puzzle:
why major industrial sectors of the
advanced industrial states stayed open
d e s p i t e t h e e c o n om i c a n d p o l i t i c a l t r o u bl e s
o f t h e 1 9 7 0 s?
Hypothesis:
If international economic
interdependence increases,
it affects national preferences and trade
policies to maintain a liberal trade
system by influencing the preferences of
industries and firms.
Independent Variable
Economic interdependence
(Export dependence
,multinationality, and
Foreign investment)
High interdependence 
Dependent Variable
Preferences for protectionism
at the level of the firms and
industries
 Preference for antiprotectionism
(2) Assess the definitions the author
had adopted for his independent and
dependent variables and whether they
are adequately used.
Protectionism
• Govt’s policy restricts or restrains international
trade, often done with the intent of protecting
local businesses and jobs from foreign
competition.
•
Broad meaning, RTA–new face of protectionism
• In this paper, narrow meaning than general
definition without defining it..
Economic
interdependence
• a b r oader c o nce pt i n t h e f o r m o f
ex por t s , i mpor t s, mul t i nat i ona l pr oduc t i on,
a nd g l obal i n t r a -f i r m t r ade .
• W h i l e F r a n ce w a s m or e t r a de d e pe ndent
w i t hi n t h e E C , t h e U S w a s m or e
d e p en de nt o n m ul t i nat i onal f i r ms.
B o t h c o unt r i es s h owed s i mi l ar l e v el s o f
i n t egr a t i on i n t o t h e i n t er nat i onal e c onomy
Export dependence
Certain level of export dependence
accelerates open trade regime, however
this doesn’t mean that higher export
dependence leads policies towards freer
trade.
(3) Evaluate the procedures used in
measuring variables and the tests
devised to show causal relationship
between the author's IVs and DV (here I
want you to critique the author's
selection of the cases.) Where the
author’s method has shortcomings, show
how it might have been improved.
Sample Selection
• 18 different industries under the highest levels
of import competition and economic difficulties
①
controlling omitted variable bias
• IVs: Economic interdependence
(Export dependence, multinationality, and
Foreign investment)
•
Omitted IV: import competition
-
high import competition  Preferences for
Protectionism (DV)
- no Multicollinearity with other IVs
② Limited number of samples (#<20)
“For intermediate cases, preferences were
complex as they wanted limited or selective
protection”
 samples can vary widely on
the level of variable
(Comparison between domestic firms and MNCs
at the highest levels of import competition)