Autonomous Vehicles
Technological Landscape
by
Alain L. Kornhauser, PhD
Professor, Operations Research & Financial Engineering
Director, Program in Transportation
Faculty Chair, PAVE (Princeton Autonomous Vehicle Engineering)
Princeton
University
Presented at
TRF, NYC Bar AV Meeting
NYC
April 28, 2015
The Initial Project:
Focused on
Research, Development, Certification and
Commercialization
of
SmartDriving Technology for Buses
Team:
Princeton University
(with Roscoe, Soterea, American Public Transit Association (APTA), NJ Transit, NY
MTA, Munich Re and insurance pools from WA, CA, OH & VA)
We are currently seeking funds to advance this project
Outline
(what I’m involved with )
• Background on SmartDrivingCars
• Effort to Establish “Center for Research,
Development,Certification & Commercialization of Automated
Road Vehicles @ Fort Monmouth”
Why New Jersey?
• Observation:
– Other States are have begun to jump on this…
• California & Google’s Self-Driving Car Initiative
–
Turned to focus investment on intelligence automation of the individual vehicle
» letting the infrastructure to be optimized for the conventional driver.. Brilliant!!
• Enables “Start small; grow fast”
•
•
•
•
•
Florida:
Michigan:
Texas
California
Automated car takes test drive on Selmon Expressway
University of Michigan to build $6.5M track to test automated cars in Ann Arbor
TTI Developing New Automated and Connected Transportation Test Bed
NASA, Google announce lease at Ames Research Center Ames
Action Item:
– Get New Jersey and the NJ/NY/PA Region involved by Leveraging the Ft. Monmouth
Facility. Create the Job, Improve mobility safety and the environment. Create the
specifications and certifications for Automated Collision Avoidance Technology and
eventually driverless vehicles.
NASA, Google announce lease at Ames Research Center Ames
http://www.nasa.gov/centers/ames/pdf/255793main_June.08.Agram.smallfile.pdf
Mercedes-Benz sends autonomous automobiles onto the USA's most
extensive testing ground
http://www.cnbc.com/id/102049263
Why Fort Monmouth?
• Observation:
– Ft Monmouth may well be one of the most hospitable
sites for those with a Vested Interest in
SmartDrivingTechnology to advance their intentions.
• Action Item:
– Create a Testing & Certification Environment for use
by Those with a Vested Interest to collaboratively
transition their products from Research to Full
Commercialization
Center for Automated Road Transportation Safety (CARTS)
at Fort Monmouth
www.njcarts.org
McAfee Complex
1250’ x 865’ ~ 25.8 acres
Vehicle Bays
McAfee Office Building
~ 100,000sf
Support Buildings
Center for Automated Road Transportation Safety (CARTS)
at Fort Monmouth
www.njcarts.org
Exclusive Use Roadways Area
~ 60 acres
Vehicle Bays
McAfee Office Building
~ 100,000sf
Support Buildings
Center for Automated Road Transportation Safety (CARTS)
at Fort Monmouth
www.njcarts.org
Mixed Use Roadways
½ The Fort ~ 1 sq. mile
Center for Automated Road Transportation Safety (CARTS)
at Fort Monmouth
www.njcarts.org
Board of Governance
The “Venue”
The McAfee Center and The Fort’s Roadways
Transit
Cars
Modal Dimension
Trucks
Center’s Activity Matrix
Research
Certification
Commercialization
Sector Dimension
Discussion!
Thank You
[email protected]
www.SmartDrivingCar.com
Present (2010) Economic & Societal Impact of Motor Vehicle Crashes
http://www.nhtsa.gov/About+NHTSA/Press+Releases/2014/NHTSA-study-shows-vehicle-crashes-have-$871-billion-impact-on-U.S.-economy,-society
Insurance : (Half of Economic Costs) ~$140B
Automation could cut that in half ~ $70B/year
The details:
• In the following slides
Present (2010) Economic & Societal Impact of Motor Vehicle Crashes
http://www.nhtsa.gov/About+NHTSA/Press+Releases/2014/NHTSA-study-shows-vehicle-crashes-have-$871-billion-impact-on-U.S.-economy,-society
Relative Economic & Societal Impact of Motor Vehicle Crashes
http://www.nhtsa.gov/About+NHTSA/Press+Releases/2014/NHTSA-study-shows-vehicle-crashes-have-$871-billion-impact-on-U.S.-economy,-society
AFTER
TODAY
What am I trying to do?
• Action Item:
– Leverage NJ’s assets @ Fort Monmouth
• Home of major Insurance, auto manufacturers, technology,
communications and education
– Create the Research, Certification & Commercialization
Environment :
To Develop SmartDrivingTechnology (SDT) such that:
PriceSDT < NetPresentValue {
Expected {AccidentLiability w/o SDT }
-
Expected {AccidentLiability w SDT }}
This suggests a very favorable business opportunity for Insurers
NJ’s Insurance Companies thus have vested fiduciary and societal
interests in contributing to the achievement of this action item.
Present Value {
Expected (
Loss Liability with the Technology –
Loss Liability w/o the Technology)}
>
Cost {Automated Collision Avoidance
Technology}
Outline
• What abut Buses?
Casualty & Liability Expense in
$ millions
US Bus and Paratransit Data 2003-2013
Casualty & Liability Expense
Source: Federal Transit Administration
$580
$550
$520
$490
$460
$430
$400
Casualty and Liability Claims are a
Huge Drain on the Industry
• For the 10 year period 2004-2013, more than
$4.8 Billion was spent on casualty and
liability claims
• For many self-insured transit agencies these
expenses are direct “out-of-pocket”
• Large reserves for claims must be budgeted
• Claims experience is reflected in insurance
premiums
• There are gaps in data reporting
In the next five days the bus
transit industry will spend $6.8
million in casualty and liability
expenses
Federal Transit Administration
National Transit Database for 2013
• Commuter Bus (CB), Motor Bus (MB), Bus Rapid
Transit (RB), Demand Responsive (DR)
• 121 Fatalities
• 15,700 Injuries
• Casualty & Liability expenses paid =
• $499,872,628
• Average of $6,187 per bus
Near-Term Transit Opportunity:
Automated Collision Avoidance
The Business Case
Part A
Driving a Bus is NOT Simple and Very Stressful
• Requires Continuous Diligence
• 2 bus drivers in NYC arrested for striking a pedestrian
while simply trying to do their job
• Driving is one of the most dangerous occupation
Near-Term Transit Opportunity:
Automated Collision Avoidance
The Business Case
Part A
Driving a Bus is NOT Simple and Very Stressful
• Requires Continuous Diligence
• 2 bus drivers in NYC arrested for striking a pedestrian
while simply trying to do their job
• Driving is one of the most dangerous occupation
• They need help and ACA systems are available to help!
• Transit Unions & OSHA need to be demanding deployment
of ACAS on all buses!
Near-Term Transit Opportunity:
Automated Collision Avoidance
The Business Case
Part B
Bus Collisions are Expensive!
Near-Term Transit Opportunity:
Automated Collision Avoidance
The Business Case
Part B
2013 Nationwide
Bus Casualty and Liability Expense
Source FTA NTD
Casualty and
Liability
Amount
Vehiclerelated
Total Buses
Commuter Bus (CB), Motor Bus (MB),
Bus Rapid Transit (RB), Demand Responsive (DR)
Sub-Total Casualty and
Liability Amount Per Bus
119 Fatalities
15,351 Injuries
$499,872,628.
80,795
$6,187/Bus/Year
Near-Term Transit Opportunity:
Automated Collision Avoidance
The Business Case
Part B
The Trend is NOT Good!
Near-Term Transit Opportunity:
Automated Collision Avoidance
The Business Case
Part B
Bus Collisions are Expensive!
In the next five days the bus
transit industry will spend $6.8
million in casualty and liability
expenses
Near-Term Transit Opportunity:
Automated Collision Avoidance
The Business Case
Part B
Bus Collisions are Expensive!
Fundamental Business Model
We are at a point where:
Cost of Automated Collision Avoidance Technology
<
Present Value {Expected Liability Savings over life of bus}
Near-Term Transit Opportunity:
Automated Collision Avoidance
The Business Case
Part B
Bus Collisions are Expensive!
Near-Term Transit Opportunity:
Automated Collision Avoidance
The Business Case
Part B
Bus Collisions are Expensive!
Near-Term Transit Opportunity:
Automated Collision Avoidance
The Business Case
Part B
Bus Collisions are Expensive!
Plus:
Lives Saved,
Injuries Avoided,
Disruptions Averted, and
Arrests not Made
All for Free!!!