European Journal of Soil Science, September 2014, 65, 730–740 doi: 10.1111/ejss.12169 Changes in carbon stocks of Danish agricultural mineral soils between 1986 and 2009 A . T a g h i z a d e h- T o o s i a, J . E . O l e s e n a, K . K r i s t e n s e n a, L . E l s g a a r d a, H . S . Øs t e r g a a r d b, M . Læ g d s m a n d a,‡, M . H . G r e v e a & B . T . C h r i s t e n s e n a a Department of Agroecology, Aarhus University, Blichers Allé 20, DK-8830 Tjele, Denmark, and b Knowledge Centre for Agriculture, Crop Production, Agro Food Park 15, DK-8200 Aarhus N, Denmark Summary To establish a national inventory of soil organic carbon (SOC) stocks and their change over time, soil was sampled in 1986, 1997 and 2009 in a Danish nation-wide 7-km grid and analysed for SOC content. The average SOC stock in 0–100-cm depth soil was 142 t C ha−1 , with 63, 41 and 38 t C ha−1 in the 0–25, 25–50 and 50–100 cm depths, respectively. Changes at 0–25 cm were small. During 1986–97, SOC in the 25–50-cm layer increased in sandy soils while SOC decreased in loam soils. In the subsequent period (1997–2009), most soils showed significant losses of SOC. From 1986 to 2009, SOC at 0–100 cm decreased in loam soils and tended to increase in sandy soils. This trend is ascribed to dairy farms with grass leys being abundant on sandy soils while cereal cropping dominates on loamy soils. A statistical model including soil type, land use and management was applied separately to 0–25, 25–50 and 50–100 cm depths to pinpoint drivers for SOC change. In the 0–25 cm layer, grass leys added 0.95 t C ha−1 year−1 and autumn-sown crops with straw incorporation added 0.40 t C ha−1 year−1 . Cattle manure added 0.21 t C ha−1 year−1 . Most interestingly, grass leys contributed 0.58 t C ha−1 year−1 at 25–50 cm, confirming that inventories based only on top-soils are incomplete. We found no significant effects in 50–100 cm. Our study indicates a small annual loss of 0.2 t C ha−1 from the 0–100 cm soil layer between 1986 and 2009. Introduction World soils contain the largest pool of carbon (C) in the terrestrial environment with an estimated 2500 Pg C (0–100 cm) including 1550 Pg of soil organic C (SOC) and 950 Pg inorganic C (Lal, 2004). Soil OC accounts for two times more C than the atmosphere (760 Pg C) and changes in SOC may significantly impact atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2 ) concentrations. Atmospheric CO2 has increased from about 285 in 1850 to 393 mg l−1 in 2012 and is currently increasing at an annual rate of about 2 mg l−1 mainly because of CO2 emissions from using fossil energy (Blasing, 2013). However, losses of SOC derived from previous and current land use and management remain an important source of atmospheric CO2 , with SOC stocks continuing to decline for decades to centuries after land has been brought into agriculture (Johnston et al., 2009; Kirk & Bellamy, 2010). When long-term arable soils are abandoned and left to revert to woodland, SOC may ‡ Present address: Unisense Fertilitech A/S, Tueager 1, DK-8200 Aarhus N, Denmark. Correspondence: A. Taghizadeh-Toosi. E-mail: Arezoo.Taghizadeh-Toosi @agrsci.dk Received 29 January 2014; revised version accepted 6 June 2014 730 continue to accumulate for similarly long periods (Poulton et al., 2003). Reliable estimates of changes in the distribution of C within terrestrial ecosystems are crucial for projections of likely effects of future climate changes. Changes in SOC can be estimated by monitoring programmes, inventories based on historical records and simulation models. Programmes for SOC monitoring involve extensive soil sampling and C analysis but allow, when properly designed, for rigid statistical analyses of SOC data from sites with repeated sampling (Arrouays et al., 2012). Since changes in SOC occur slowly, repeated samplings over decades are needed to establish trends in SOC storage (Saby et al., 2008). Further, the spatial variability of SOC can be considerable: therefore soil samplings need to be sufficiently well replicated to provide reliable estimates of SOC stocks at a given site. Costs associated with long running national monitoring networks and with soil sampling and C measuring campaigns can be substantial. Although modelling is less expensive and essential for projections of future changes in SOC, model performance and outputs need to be verified against results from monitoring activities (Capriel, 2013). Major uncertainties in the global C budget are associated with changes in SOC in agricultural soils, and data from national SOC monitoring networks are essential in reducing this uncertainty (van © 2014 British Society of Soil Science Soil carbon storage and management Wesemael et al., 2011). Monitoring of SOC on agricultural land is also important in order to isolate effects of management on SOC stocks, recognizing that individual effects of management elements are most often confounded. Previous analyses have shown effects on SOC contents of grassland cultivation (Goidts et al., 2009; van Wesemael et al., 2010), production intensity and changes in climate (Bellamy et al., 2005), and SOC inventories have been used to validate simulations of changes in SOC at regional and national scales using information on land use and management (Smith et al., 2012). However, it is essential to consider limitations arising from confounded management effects, differences in sampling procedures such as sampling depths, sampling intensity and time span covered, methods used for C analysis and the statistical design of sampling campaigns. In Denmark, a nation-wide square grid monitoring net (termed ‘Kvadratnettet’) with sampling areas (830 areas; each 50 × 50 m2 ) fixed at a mutual distance of 7 km was established in 1986 (Østergaard, 1989). The sampling areas under agricultural use (590 areas in 1986) are hosted by farmers and subjected to their choice of management. A given year’s management is reported by the farmer in annual questionnaires. The present study draws on soil sampling campaigns in 1986/87, 1997/98, and 2009/10 (referred to as 1986, 1997 and 2009, respectively). All three campaigns depended on comparable soil sampling and C analyses procedures but were subject to advances in site location techniques and C analytical equipment. Methodological issues associated with soil sampling and laboratory routines were assessed in separate studies in 2009. A preliminary report of SOC and soil nitrogen data extracted from the 1986 and 1997 sampling campaigns was issued by Heidmann et al. (2002). Recently, Rubæk et al. (2013) published a detailed account of changes in soil phosphorus accumulation and spatial distribution using soils from the same sampling campaigns. The objectives of the present study were to establish SOC stocks and their change in agricultural mineral soils in Denmark between 1986 and 2009 and to identify impacts on SOC of individual management elements. Materials and methods Denmark covers a total area of 43 095 km2 of which nearly two-thirds is under agricultural management. Most of the agricultural land is intensively cultivated with autumn and spring sown cereals, oilseed rape, silage maize and grass-clover leys. The climate is Atlantic coastal temperate with an annual mean temperature of 7.7∘ C, ranging from 0∘ C in January-February to 15.6∘ C in July-August (means for 1961–90). The average annual precipitation is 712 mm. Annual potential evapotranspiration is 550 mm with surplus precipitation in late autumn, winter and early spring. Figure 1 shows monthly mean temperatures and precipitation between 1986 and 2010. Sampling campaigns in 1986 and 1997 In 1986, soil was sampled from the 590 (50 × 50 m2 ) grid areas under agricultural use (Figure 2). At each grid area, located by 731 Figure 1 Monthly mean temperature (a) and precipitation (b) recorded between 1986 and 2010. Dashed lines show the average values for period 1 (1986–97) and period 2 (1997–2009). 1:25 000 maps, 16 soil cores were taken along three parallel transects with an Ultuna soil corer (diameter, 22.8 mm) at four soil depths; 0–25, 25–50, 50–75 and 75–100 cm. These depths were taken to represent the plough layer (0–25 cm), the main rooting zone (0–50 cm), and drainage depth (75–100 cm). For each grid area and soil depth, the 16 samples were mixed into one bulk sample. The coring procedure ensured that carry-over of soil across different profile depths was avoided. The soil was left to air-dry and stored in the dark. Soil texture was analysed by standard sieving and sedimentation methods (Sparks et al., 1996). The SOC analysis is described later and for the present study, soil from 50–75 and 75–100 cm depths were combined to represent the 50–100 cm layer. In 1997, soil samples were collected from 336 agricultural grid areas located < 40 m from those of the 1986 campaign. The sampling protocol was as in 1986, but in 1997 samples were not subject to texture analyses. Samples were air-dried and stored. Only a few of the samples taken in 1997 from the 50–75 and 75–100 cm soil depth were available for C analysis and these soil depths were ignored in this study. Soil samples retrieved in 1986 and 1997 were analysed in 1997 using ball-milled sub-samples. Total carbon (TC) content was © 2014 British Society of Soil Science, European Journal of Soil Science, 65, 730–740 732 A. Taghizadeh-Toosi et al. outside the acceptance range, the soils in the analytical batch were re-analysed. The reproducibility of the soil sampling and laboratory procedures was tested in 2009 using TC analysis data. In one study, 40 of the grid areas were re-sampled, using 16 grid cells (selected randomly a priori) not included in the regular 2009 campaign. Samples from the three depth intervals (n = 120) were analysed in order to evaluate variation within a grid area. In another study, 151 individual soil samples from the regular 2009 campaign (randomly selected among grid areas and soil depths) were re-analysed for TC content repeating all steps of the laboratory procedure. This was done to isolate the variation associated with laboratory sub-sampling, ball-milling and analysis. Information on land use and management Figure 2 The location of sampling areas under agricultural use in 1986, when the nationwide monitoring grid was established. determined by IR analysis of the amount of CO2 produced after dry combustion in pure O2 at 1250∘ C using a LECO-CNS 1000 analyser (LECO Corporation, St. Joseph, MI, USA). Total carbon was taken as soil organic carbon (SOC) unless a precedent test indicated the presence of carbonates. When carbonate was present, this was determined separately by a volumetric method (Sparks et al., 1996) and SOC was taken as the difference between TC and carbonate C. Every year, farmers hosting grid areas submitted reports with information on the previous year’s land use and management. This information was subsequently categorised into land use (crop) groups: (i) grass leys, (ii) autumn sown cereals and oilseed rape with straw removal, (iii) autumn sown cereals and oilseed rape with straw incorporation, (iv) silage maize, spring sown cereals and oilseed rape with straw removal, (v) spring sown cereals, oilseed rape and maize with straw incorporation and (vi) spring sown row crops. For management the following groups were established: (i) main crop followed by a cover crop or under-sown with grass, (ii) soil ploughed, (iii) cattle manure applied, (iv) pig manure applied and (v) application of other types of organic material. Calculations and statistics The concentration of SOC (Cdi ) determined for individual soil samples from a given depth interval (di ) was converted to t C ha−1 as: Sampling campaign in 2009 In 2009, 504 agricultural grid areas were again located by maps and then positioned with GPS technology. This will provide a more exact location (< 5 m) of the grid areas in future sampling campaigns. Each 50 × 50 m2 grid area was sub-divided into 100 grid cells (each 5 × 5 m2 ) and 16 of these (drawn randomly a priori) were sampled to 100 cm depth using three depth intervals: 0–25, 25–50 and 50–100 cm. Samples were air-dried, ball-milled and analysed for C as in 1997, but this time using a Thermo Flash 2000 NC Analyser (Thermo Fisher Scientific, Delft, The Netherlands). Validity of soil sampling and C analysis procedures During C analysis in 1997 (including soils sampled in 1986) and 2009, four reference soils (laboratory standards) and aspartic acid were routinely included to verify the quality of the C analysis. One randomly chosen reference soil was included for every ten grid samples. The quality of the C analysis was accepted when the measured C content of the reference soils was within the ranges indicated in Figure 3. If the C analysis of the reference soil fell ( ) t C ha−1 = Cdi (%) × 𝜌d t m−3 × d (cm) , (1) in which 𝜌d is the soil density of the depth interval d. Guided by soil texture determined in 1986 for the 0–25 cm layer, representative soil densities were established for each grid area, soil depth, and sampling campaign by retrieving average soil densities from matching soil profiles in the national soil profile database (Krogh et al., 2003) that includes a total of 1001 profiles. The grid areas were grouped according to soil types in the Danish soil classification system (Table 1). Table 2 shows the soil bulk densities used throughout. The number of grid area samples for different soil types and depths is shown in Table 3. The number of grid areas allowing comparison between SOC in 1986, 1997 and 2009 was 258 for 0–25 cm and 252 for 25–50 cm; for 50–100-cm depth data were available only for 1986 and 2009 and comparisons were based on 457 grid areas. Only data available for all depths in all sampling years were used for 0–100 cm, thus for this integration the number of grid areas was restricted to 252. Analysis of variance was © 2014 British Society of Soil Science, European Journal of Soil Science, 65, 730–740 Soil carbon storage and management 733 Figure 3 Box plots of total-C (TC) contents in reference samples during the 2009 analysis campaign. Box plots show the mean (grey line), median (black line), interquartile range (box) and 10–90th percentile (bars). Lines below the box plots show means and acceptance ranges for C contents in previously analysed reference samples (including data from the 1986 and 1997 soil sampling campaigns). Note: different scales on y axes. Table 1 Classification of Danish mineral soils with less than 10% organic matter and less than 10% lime based on top-soil texture. Data are based on weight percentage; soil JB number refers to the Danish soil classification system (Madsen et al., 1992) Soil type Soil JB no. Clay /% Silt /% Fine sand / % Total sand / % Coarse sand (CS) Fine sand (FS) Loamy sand (LS) Loamy sand (LS) Sandy loam (SL) Sandy loam (SL) Loam (LO) 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 0–5 0–5 5–10 5–10 10–15 10–15 15–25 0–20 0–20 0–25 0–25 0–30 0–30 0–35 0–50 50–100 0–40 40–95 0–40 40–90 0–85 75–100 75–100 65–95 65–95 55–90 55–90 40–85 Table 2 Average soil bulk density (g cm−3 ) according to soil type of the top-soil and depth in the soil profile. Soil JB number refers to the Danish soil classification system (Madsen et al., 1992) 0–25 cm 25–50 cm 50–75 cm Soil JB no. g cm−3 SD n g cm−3 SD n g cm−3 SD n g cm−3 SD n 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 1.50 1.47 1.43 1.45 1.55 1.52 1.60 1.53 1.49 1.56 1.54 1.60 1.60 1.60 1.44 1.40 1.43 1.39 1.51 1.46 1.49 0.11 0.08 0.14 0.14 0.16 0.18 0.18 185 38 96 143 23 87 75 0.12 0.10 0.14 0.15 0.20 0.24 0.12 118 25 58 83 14 37 71 0.12 0.15 0.18 0.18 0.10 0.17 0.21 75–100 cm 79 23 19 36 3 18 51 1.53 1.53 1.58 1.57 1.86 1.70 1.67 0.17 0.08 0.11 0.19 – 0.11 0.20 56 17 8 14 1 13 47 SD, standard deviation; n, number of samples for bulk density measurement; – , only one sample. performed to test for changes in SOC over time for each soil type and for all soils. The data were also analysed for effects of land use and management factors on changes in SOC stocks. For this purpose, we applied a statistical model that assumes that under constant management SOC will gradually approach a steady state equilibrium defined by soil type, land use and management. The rate at which SOC approaches the steady state depends on Table 3 Number of grid areas included in this study (see Calculations and statistics section) for different soil types and profile depths Soil type 0–25 cm 25–50 cm 50–100 cm Coarse sand (CS) Fine sand (FS) Loamy sand (LS) Sandy loam (SL) Loam (LO) Total 30 24 74 86 44 258 28 24 73 84 43 252 70 34 146 132 75 457 soil type. The following statistical model was therefore applied to relate the changes in SOC over time to determining variables. The model was applied separately to each of the depths 0–25, 25–50 and 50–100 cm. Yis = 𝜆is + 𝜏is + 𝜂s + Eis , (2) where: i = grid area number (1, 2, . . . ., p); s = sampling number (s = 0, 1 and 2 for the 1986, 1997 and 2009 campaigns, respectively); Y is = the measured SOC in grid area i at sampling s; Y is − 1 = the measured SOC in grid area i at sampling s − 1; 𝜆is = the expected SOC in grid area i at sampling s when no C is added to or removed from the soil (when 𝜏 is = 0); ) 𝛽n ⎧𝛼 + (Y 1 is−1 − 𝛼 e ⎪ ⎪ ⎪ ⎪ 𝜆is = ⎨ ( ) 𝛽n ⎪𝛼 − 𝛼 − Yis−1 e 2 ⎪ ⎪ ⎪ ⎩ if the actual value is greather than the long − term value, i.e. if Yis−1 > 𝛼 if the actual value is smaller than the long − term value, i.e. if Yis−1 ≤ 𝛼, 𝜏 is = the net addition of C added by management in area i between m ∑ campaigns; 𝜏is = 𝛾j xisj ; 𝜂 s = a constant that accounts for the j systematic differences between campaigns (only applied when analysing 25–50 cm soil); 𝛼 = the soil type dependent steady © 2014 British Society of Soil Science, European Journal of Soil Science, 65, 730–740 734 A. Taghizadeh-Toosi et al. state equilibrium of SOC (termed long-term value); 𝛽 1 = a soil type-dependent constant describing the exponential decrease in SOC over time; 𝛽 1 = k𝛽 2 ; 𝛽 2 = a soil type dependent constant describing the exponential increase in SOC over time; 𝛾 j = a constant describing the expected change in SOC induced by a crop or management operation j (relative to crops and management operations not included in the model, that is non-significant effects and crops and management operations not explicitly defined in the model); n = the number of years between campaigns s − 1 and s; p = the number of grid areas included (see Table 3); m = the number of crops and management operations taken into account (crops and management, operations were included in the model when effects were significant at the 10% level); xisj = the number of management operation of type j for grid area i between campaign s − 1 and s; Eis = the random error which is expected to follow a normal distribution (mean = 0; variance = 𝜎 2 ); and k = a quotient between rate constants for SOC increase and SOC decrease. To ensure alignment with assumptions on variance homogeneity, the method of transform both sides (Kettl, 1990) was applied by taking the logarithms of the dependent variable as well as the model prediction. The method assumes that residuals are independent, which was tested by calculating semivariograms. These showed no spatial correlation of residuals. The initial parameters were estimated with a non-linear model that minimized the residual sum of squares. The minimizing was done iteratively by regressing the residuals on to partial derivatives of the model with respect to the parameters until the difference between two subsequent steps were sufficiently small (George & Seber, 2003). This was performed using the procedure NLIN of SAS (SAS, 2010). Significant differences were extracted by Student’s t-test at a significance level of 10%. The changes in SOC for different soil types in different periods were tested for significance using pair-wise Student’s t-test adjusted for multiplicity (14 or 7 tests in Figures 7, 8, respectively) using Bonferoni’s method. A Monte Carlo simulation was run in SAS to address the uncertainty introduced by using fixed mean bulk densities. Firstly, as standard deviation (SD) of bulk density means for individual soil types and depths (n = 28) were similar, a weighted common SD was calculated (0.15 g cm−3 ). Then, for each combination of sampling points, depth and time, t SOC ha−1 was calculated 10 000 times using the relevant mean bulk density and again after adding a random bulk density uncertainty (BDu ) from the normal distribution BDu ∼ N(0, 0.0225). The SD on the differences between these two estimates was 3.6–7.5 t SOC ha−1 for each depth across time and soil types. These additional uncertainties corresponded to relative increases of 1.3–4.1% when compared with the standard deviation on the means of measured data. Results and discussion Studies of sampling and analytical procedures Concentrations of C in soils sampled in 1986 and 1997 were determined in 1997 with a different instrument to those analysed Figure 4 Correlation between (a) total-C (TC) concentrations in soil from the 16 grid cells of the regular 2009 sampling campaign and in soil from 16 alternative grid cells sampled in the same 40 grid areas, (b) TC concentrations in soil from the regular 2009 sampling campaign and in 151 soil samples randomly selected for re-analysis. Data are plotted for each of the three depths ( ) 0–25 cm, ( ) 25–50 cm, and ( ) 50–100 cm. Lines show the 1:1 relationship. in 2009. Results for the four laboratory reference soils, included for laboratory quality control of the C analyses in 1997 and 2009, showed that the analyses performed in 2009 were in accordance with those previously established in 1997 (Figure 3), substantiating the validity of comparing SOC results across the two analytical runs. Comparing the means of analyses of the reference soils and aspartic acid showed only minor systematic trends; mean C contents determined in 2009 were 1.3% (range 0.3–2.7%) larger than those determined in 1997. The C content in soils sampled in the 16 grid cells selected for the regular 2009 campaign was in accordance with that of soils retrieved in 16 alternative cells within the same grid area (Figure 4a; paired-sample t-test; mean difference −0.036% C; P = 0.13; n = 120; r = 0.95). Also, the C content in re-analysed samples aligned with that found in the regular analytical run © 2014 British Society of Soil Science, European Journal of Soil Science, 65, 730–740 Soil carbon storage and management (Figure 4b; mean difference 0.015% C; P = 0.31; n = 151; r = 0.98). From this we surmised that the uncertainties associated with the sampling and laboratory procedures were sufficiently small to allow the detection of any changes in SOC stocks between 1986 and 2009. Reports on SOC storage in agricultural soils most often lack determinations of stone content (> 2 mm) in the sampled profiles nor apply specific corrections for stone content in their calculations of SOC stocks. This is also true for the three sampling campaigns included in our study. However, previous studies associated with the Danish Soil Profile Database found that soil fractions > 2 mm accounted for < 5% of the soil mass (M. H. Greve; unpublished results). This is generally acknowledged as a small stone content. We therefore considered that the uncertainty associated with variations in stone content within a grid area would not jeopardize the calculations of SOC stocks and their change over time. To retain transparency in our study, we refrained from applying a general 5% reduction to the calculated SOC stocks as the impact of correcting for the volume occupied by stones differs for soil depths with different concentrations of C in the < 2 mm soil. We used one set of soil bulk densities for each soil type and soil depth to calculate SOC stock at the three samplings. These bulk densities were derived from a large data-set of soil profiles representative for Danish arable soils. Although individually measured and stone-corrected bulk densities are preferred when calculating SOC stocks, Schrumpf et al. (2011) concluded that C concentrations were of greater importance than bulk density for the variability in SOC stocks. Sensitivity analyses by Monte Carlo simulation indicated that standard errors in the SOC inventories (Figures 5, 6) could be under-estimated by a factor of up to 1.04, which was interpreted as a modest additional uncertainty of using fixed bulk densities. Overall storage and distribution of SOC Between 1986 and 2009, the amount of SOC stored in the top-soil (0–25 cm) averaged 63 t C ha−1 , ranging from 78 t C in the coarse sandy (CS) soil to 54 t C in the sandy loam (SL) soil (Figure 5). Similar SOC stocks have been reported for agricultural mineral top-soils in Finland (Heikkinen et al., 2013), northern Belgium (Meersmans et al., 2009) and southeast Germany (Wiesmeier et al., 2012) despite the substantial climatic gradient and the different geological origin of the soils. This suggests that mineral top-soils under long-term agricultural use may approach comparable SOC stocks, probably defined by similar management intensity, similar choice of crop types and comparable rotation schemes. The 25–50 cm soil layer contained 41 t C ha−1 (Figure 5), ranging from 48 t C in the CS soil to 36 t C in the SL soil. The 50–100 cm layer held an almost equal amount of SOC (Figure 6; 38 t C ha−1 ) with small differences among soil types. The overall stock of SOC in the top 100 cm was 142 t C ha−1 , ranging from 155 t C in CS soil to 125 t C in the SL soil. A previous inventory of SOC in the 0–100-cm layer of Danish soils (Krogh et al., 2003) found that agricultural soils held 140 t C ha−1 , while wetland soils, forest soils and soils under natural vegetation stored 356, 169 and 144 t C ha−1 , respectively. Somewhat smaller estimates have been 735 Figure 5 (a–c) Soil organic carbon (SOC) stock in 0–25, 25–50 and 0–50-cm depths of different soil types sampled in 1986, 1997 and 2009 (CS, coarse sand; FS, fine sand; LS, loamy sand; SL, sandy loam; LO, loam). Error bars are standard error. reported for cropland (90 t C ha−1 ), grassland (118 t C ha−1 ) and forest soils (98 t C ha−1 ) in southeast Germany (Wiesmeier et al., 2012), mainly because there is less SOC below the top-soil (A horizon). Meersmans et al. (2009) also found less SOC stored in the 0–100-layer under cropland and grassland in northern Belgium (86 and 108 t C ha−1 , respectively), while another study of North Belgian soils (Mestdagh et al., 2009) reported SOC storage ranging from 111 to 163 t C ha−1 in grasslands (excluding grasslands on polders and dunes). For Scottish arable soils, Chapman et al. (2013) reported SOC stocks of 111 t C ha−1 . Most regional and national inventories of SOC storage in agricultural soils are restricted to SOC in top-soils (plough layer). Although the effects of cultivation are expected to affect mainly this soil layer, it is important to note that SOC in the 0–25 cm accounts for less than half the quantity of SOC stored in the entire soil profile. The SOC in the deeper layers may also show long-term C changes following the cultivation of native soils as a substantial part of the rooting system of plants extends below the plough layer and because of vertical transport of SOC down the soil. Changes in SOC storage between 1986 and 2009 Averaged across all soil types, there was no significant change between 1986 and 2009 in the amount of SOC stored in 0–25 cm © 2014 British Society of Soil Science, European Journal of Soil Science, 65, 730–740 736 A. Taghizadeh-Toosi et al. (a) (a) (b) (b) (c) (c) Figure 6 (a–c) Soil organic carbon (SOC) stock in 0–50, 50–100 and 0–100-cm depths of different soil types sampled in 1986 and 2009 (CS, coarse sand; FS, fine sand; LS, loamy sand; SL, sandy loam; LO, loam). Error bars are standard error. Figure 7 (a–c) Changes in SOC stocks in 0–25, 25–50 and 0–50-cm depths from 1986 to 1997 (period 1) and from 1997 to 2009 (period 2) for different soil types (CS, coarse sand; FS, fine sand; LS, loamy sand; SL, sandy loam; LO, loam). layer (Figure 7), and there was no systematic trend when comparing changes observed for the periods 1986–97 and 1997–2009. In contrast, SOC in the 25–50 cm depth increased significantly between 1986 and 1997 in sandy soils (CS, fine sand (FS) and LS) while it decreased significantly in the loam soil (LO). In the subsequent period (1997–2009), all soils (except the FS) had a significant loss of SOC. It may be speculated that the greater mean temperature between 1997 and 2009 than between 1986 and 1997 (Figure 1) may have promoted greater microbial activity and caused enhanced losses of CO2 from the soil. Climate warming is likely to increase SOC decay in the humid boreal zone. According to Smith et al. (2007) and Kirk & Bellamy (2010), climate change accounted for at most 10–20% of the observed SOC changes in England and Wales between 1978–2003, while van Wesemael et al. (2010) found no significant effect of climate trends between 1960–2006 on SOC changes observed for Belgian agricultural soils. Most SOC inventories are based solely on measurements in the top-soil, and it is noteworthy that changes in SOC were substantially larger in the 25–50-cm than in the 0–25-cm layer. Inventories based only on changes in top-soil SOC may therefore be inconclusive and even misleading (Chapman et al., 2013). Averaged across all soil types, the 25–50-cm layer accumulated 0.27 t C ha−1 year−1 during 1986–97 and then lost 0.57 t C ha−1 year−1 between 1997 and 2009. Changes in the SOC present in the 0–50-cm layer were dominated by the changes observed at 25–50 cm. The SOC at 0–50 cm decreased significantly between 1997–2009 when, for all soils, the loss corresponded 0.59 t C ha−1 year−1 . Although we can offer no explanation for the different trends observed during the two periods, our results demonstrate that estimates of changes in SOC stocks should be consolidated by being based on more than two sampling campaigns decades apart. Seen over the entire period 1986–2009, the most dramatic change was a decrease in SOC present in the LO soil corresponding to an average annual loss of 0.86 t C ha−1 from the 0–50 cm layer (Figure 8). The average annual loss of SOC from the SL soil was 0.32 t C ha−1 whereas the CS and FS soils gained similar quantities of SOC. Averaged across all soils, the amount of SOC at 50–100 cm remained almost constant between 1986 and 2009 although in the LO soil it tended to decrease and in sandy soils (CS, FS and LS) it tended to increase (Figure 8). For the entire profile (0–100 cm), the LO soil lost SOC at a mean annual rate of 1.24 t C ha−1 while in the sandy soils SOC tended to increase by 0.16–0.59 t C ha−1 year−1 . However, when integrating data for all soils, we found a small and non-significant mean annual reduction of 0.20 t C ha−1 over the entire period 1986–2009 (Figure 8). Similar losses have been observed in other European countries (Meersmans et al., 2009; Mestdagh et al., 2009; Heikkinen et al., 2013) and in a compilation of SOC inventories © 2014 British Society of Soil Science, European Journal of Soil Science, 65, 730–740 Soil carbon storage and management 737 Table 4 SOC in 0–25 cm depth: estimated model parameters with standard errors (SE) for effects of land use and management on changes in soil organic carbon (SOC) between 1986 and 2009. Results are shown for significant and non-significant effects. Model parameters; see Calculations and statistics section. (a) Parameter Estimate Significant effects (P ≤ 0.10) 𝛼 41.3 𝛽 sand −0.02 𝛽 loam −0.05 k 0.51 Grass 0.95 Autumn sown crops, 0.40 straw incorporation Cattle manure 0.21 Non-significant effects (P > 0.10) Autumn sown crops, 0.01 straw removed Spring sown crops, −0.22 straw incorporation Spring sown crops, −0.12 straw removed Cover crop 0.12 Ploughing −0.13 Pig manure 0.07 Other organic manures 0.27 (b) (c) Figure 8 (a–c) Changes in SOC stocks in 0–50, 50–100 and 0–100-cm depths from 1986 to 2009 for different soil types (CS, coarse sand; FS, fine sand; LS, loam sand; SL, sandy loam; LO, loam). covering European (EU 25) croplands (Ciais et al., 2010). The tendency for SOC to increase in sandy soils and decrease in loamy soils may be linked to different land uses. Dairy farms with frequent perennial grass-clover leys in their rotations are abundant on Danish sandy soils whereas loamy soils are dominated by spring and autumn sown cereals and other cash crops, often combined with straw removal for energy purposes. Effect of land use and management on SOC Autumn sown crops (cereals and oilseed rape) with straw incorporation increased SOC in the 0–25 cm layer by 0.40 t C ha−1 year−1 when compared to crops not included in the model (Table 4). Annual incorporation of straw may provide a dry matter input of 5 t ha−1 , corresponding to 2.3 t C ha−1 for a typical straw with a C concentration of 45%. Field experiments operated over decades have demonstrated that 14% of the straw-derived C is retained in the plough layer (Thomsen & Christensen, 2004). Thus, straw incorporation may lead to a SOC increase of 0.32 t C ha−1 year−1 , which aligns with our estimates. However, spring sown crops with straw incorporation did not provide a significant effect on SOC in the 0–25 cm layer, indicating that the effect of straw incorporation probably interacts with effects related to the crop planting time. This may be because of greater inputs of non-harvestable crop residues (including roots) in autumn-sown crops than in spring-sown crops (Chirinda et al., 2012). SE Unit 2.7 0.01 0.02 0.23 0.36 0.17 t C ha−1 Year−1 Year−1 None t C ha−1 year−1 t C ha−1 year−1 0.12 t C ha−1 year−1 0.15 t C ha−1 year−1 0.33 t C ha−1 year−1 0.20 t C ha−1 year−1 0.36 0.11 0.09 0.30 t C ha−1 year−1 t C ha−1 year−1 t C ha−1 year−1 t C ha−1 year−1 Cattle manure (mainly in the form of cattle slurry) increased SOC by 0.21 t C ha−1 year−1 in the 0–25 cm layer (Table 4). Assuming a fresh-weight application rate of 30 t ha−1 year−1 , a dry matter content of 10% and a C concentration in the dry matter of 30%, this would be equivalent to an annual application of 0.9 t C ha−1 . Provided that 30% of the slurry C is retained over decades (Witter, 1996; Kätterer et al., 2008), application of cattle manure would represent a SOC increase of 0.3 t C ha−1 year−1 . The most conspicuous effect extracted from our dataset was related to the presence of grass leys. These significantly increased SOC by 0.95 t C ha−1 year−1 in the 0–25 cm layer and by 0.58 t C ha−1 year−1 in the 25–50 cm layer (Tables 4, 5). The increase in SOC in 0–25 cm is in accordance with an annual increase of 1.1 t C ha−1 year−1 in the 0–20 cm soil layer of a field experiment with 1–6 years old grass leys (Christensen et al., 2009). Several studies have shown that grasslands accumulate SOC: possible reasons include greater above- and below-ground residue inputs, lack of soil tillage operations and larger livestock densities with intense inputs of animal manure (Goidts & van Wesemael, 2007). For the deepest soil layer (50–100 cm) effects of land use and management on SOC were non-significant. However, grass leys tended to increase SOC in the 50–100 cm layer (Table 6). Including this effect, the presence of grass leys promoted an average annual increase of 1.65 t C ha−1 in the entire soil profile. The model estimates show some differences for sandy soils (CS, FS and LS) and loamy soils (SL and LO). For the 0–25-cm layer the rate of change in SOC was a factor two larger for the loamy soils © 2014 British Society of Soil Science, European Journal of Soil Science, 65, 730–740 738 A. Taghizadeh-Toosi et al. Table 5 Soil organic carbon at 25–50 cm depth: estimated model parameters with standard errors (SE) for effects of land use and management on changes in SOC between 1986 and 2009. Results are shown for significant and non-significant effects. Model parameters; see Calculations and statistics section Table 6 Soil organic carbon at 50–100 cm depth: estimated model parameters with standard errors (SE) for effects of land use and management on changes in SOC between 1986 and 2009. All management effects are non-significant. Model parameters; see Calculations and statistics section Parameter Parameter Estimate Significant effects (P ≤ 0.10) 47.3 𝛼 sand 𝛼 loam 34.6 𝛽 −0.05 k 1 𝜂 −7.28 Grass 0.58 Non-significant effects (p > 0.10) Autumn sown crops, 0.02 straw incorporated Autumn sown crops, −0.18 straw removed Spring sown crops, 0.21 straw incorporated Spring sown crops, 0.09 straw removed Cover crop −0.08 Ploughing 0.10 Cattle manure −0.09 Pig manure 0.03 Other organic manures 0.15 SE Unit 2.4 2.0 0.01 0.00 0.88 0.31 t C ha−1 t C ha−1 Year−1 None None t C ha−1 year−1 0.19 t C ha−1 year−1 0.19 t C ha−1 year−1 0.39 t C ha−1 year−1 0.23 t C ha−1 year−1 0.42 0.21 0.12 0.10 0.34 t C ha−1 year−1 t C ha−1 year−1 t C ha−1 year−1 t C ha−1 year−1 t C ha−1 year−1 than the sandy soils (Table 4). For the 25–50 cm layer the reference steady state equilibrium content of SOC was greater for sandy than for loamy soils (Table 5). This probably reflects that most of the coarse sand soils in the western part of Denmark are located on outwash plains generated during the Weichsel glaciations and subject to prolonged water-stagnation. As with other sandy soils, the coarse sand soils were subsequently exposed to podsolization. The spodic horizons Bh and Bhs , enriched in stable C (Schmidt et al., 2000; Vejre et al., 2003) co-precipitated with aluminium, iron and manganese, became part of the top-soil when the soils were converted to agricultural land. In the model estimates, relict C in the sandy soils will result in either a slower SOC turnover rate or greater steady state equilibrium of SOC. The faster turnover rate estimated for SOC in 50–100 cm of sandy soils than in loamy soils (Table 6) remains unexplained. However, one contributing factor could be a very small effect of management in this soil depth, providing uncertain estimates of changes in SOC. The large proportion of the area in Denmark under agricultural management means that the agricultural sector remains the primary manager of the national SOC stock. It has been estimated that 69% of the SOC at 0–100 cm resides under agricultural land (Krogh et al., 2003). This is very different from the global picture where agricultural soils are estimated to account for only 6% of the total SOC pool (Krogh et al., 2003). Although we were able to isolate some management elements of quantitative importance to SOC storage, our study also shows the difficulties in using the information Estimate Significant effects (P ≤ 0.10) 𝛼 29.0 𝛽 sand −0.22 𝛽 loam −0.05 k 0.74 Non-significant effects (P > 0.10) Grass 0.12 Autumn sown crops, −0.02 straw incorporated Autumn sown crops, −0.04 straw removed Spring sown crops, 0.01 straw incorporated Spring sown crops, 0.04 straw removed Cover crop 0.07 Ploughing −0.08 Cattle manure 0.01 Pig manure 0.00 Other organic manures −0.07 SE Unit 2.0 0.01 0.02 0.32 t C ha−1 Year−1 Year−1 None 0.17 0.17 t C ha−1 year−1 t C ha−1 year−1 0.14 t C ha−1 year−1 0.30 t C ha−1 year−1 0.16 t C ha−1 year−1 0.36 0.11 0.06 0.07 0.21 t C ha−1 year−1 t C ha−1 year−1 t C ha−1 year−1 t C ha−1 year−1 t C ha−1 year−1 provided by the farmers on land use and management. In practical farming situations, management operations with positive and negative impact on SOC storage are often implemented simultaneously, and the information provided by the farmer may be not sufficiently detailed to isolate effects of individual managements by statistical analyses. It is well established that changes in SOC contents of temperate agricultural soils occur slowly and are experimentally verifiable only over extended periods. Therefore, field experiments with long, continued treatments represent a most valuable additional source of information on the impact of individual management elements on SOC development (Johnston et al., 2009), and such experiments provide unique data-sets for testing models that simulate SOC dynamics over decades to centuries (Bruun et al., 2003). It is reassuring that our estimates of the impact of selected management on SOC based on monitoring farmers’ fields align well with estimates extracted from long-term field experiments. This provides confidence in model estimates that have been calibrated against results from long-term field experiments. Conclusions The overall land use and management intensity did not change substantially during our study period stretching over only two decades. Accordingly, we found only a small overall loss of SOC (0.2 t C ha−1 year−1 from 0 to 100 cm). Some distinct changes in SOC storage emerged when we considered individual soil types, soil depths and soil sampling campaigns, but we were able to © 2014 British Society of Soil Science, European Journal of Soil Science, 65, 730–740 Soil carbon storage and management isolate significant effects of only a few management elements. The most conspicuous trends were gains of SOC in sandy soils and loss of SOC from loamy soils. These trends are ascribed to differences in land use; dairy farms with frequent grass leys being abundant on sandy soils and cereal cropping with straw removal dominating on loamy soils. This is supported by our model estimates on effects of management. Grass leys added 0.95 t C ha−1 year−1 to SOC at 0–25 cm and, most interestingly, also 0.58 t C at 25–50 cm. In addition to this, cattle manure was found to contribute 0.21 t C ha−1 year−1 in the 0–25 cm layer. The importance of reliable SOC inventories has long been recognized. However, a large number of previous studies have relied only on SOC present in the top-soil, even though the sub-soil usually accommodates more than 50% of the SOC in the entire profile. In this respect, our study has clearly shown that changes in the 25–50 cm soil layer can be significant within decades. The setup of the national square grid net and the SOC database accumulated so far represent a unique basis for studies on future changes on SOC in agricultural mineral soils in Denmark. Acknowledgements This study was financially supported by the Danish SINKS project and by the FP-7 EU project SmartSOIL (Grant no. 289694). 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