What’s the Chance?
Written by Susan Frame
Illustrations by Gary Rees
The Story
The animals
discuss the chance
of each
of them moving
a pile of hay,
getting a hat
or flying.
Maths Ideas
Unit 16
• Chance is expressed mathematically on a scale which ranges from
“no chance” (or zero chance) through to total chance or complete
chance (later expressed as 1 on the scale).
• Before chance can be determined, the possible outcomes have to
be identified.
Tossing a coin results in two possible outcomes – heads or tails.
There is therefore a 1 in 2 chance, or half a chance, of getting
heads – later expressed as chance of 0.5
Introduction
• Draw a line of chance and mark it no chance, even chance, complete
chance. Ask the children questions and record their replies under
headings.
What is something that you will do every day?
What is something that you might do every day?
What is something you couldn’t possibly do every day?
• Introduce the story, What’s the Chance? Use the Big Book version.
Will the mouse on page 2 move the hay? What chance do you think
the mouse has? Why do you think the mouse has no chance?
Go to page 3 for the answer.
Can the elephant on page 6 move the hay? What chance do you
think the elephant has? Why?
Follow the same pattern for all the events in the story, relating them to
the line of chance.
© Wendy Pye Publishing Ltd 2011
Look
Look
Read
at page 12.
Can the giraffe reach the hat? Can the elephant reach the hat?
Could they both reach the hat?
at page 14.
What chance do you think the elephant has of being able to fly?
What chance do you think the caterpillar has?
Is “no chance” a good answer?
the end of the story to find out. Reread the story together.
12
3
Chance
Follow-up Activity
Possible outcomes
Ask children to draw a picture showing one of the three possible outcomes on the line of chance. Then come together and ask children to
say which heading they would put their picture under and why.
Online Activities
Story Activity: What’s the Chance?
The child reads the story, following the text on screen. The child can use
three buttons – No Chance, Even Chance, Complete Chance – to decide
on the chance of something happening.
Activity 1: Rate your Chances
Children click on the buttons, No Chance, Even Chance or Complete
Chance to answer questions such as “Will I fly to the Moon today?”
Other Activities
Making Music
Make a line of chance with a piece of string with an old tennis ball
threaded on it. Ask the children to suggest items that may be, or perhaps
could be, or may not be used to make music. For each suggestion,
another child can move the tennis ball along the string to the position
the child thinks is right. The children could discuss whether they agree,
and why.
This approach begins to allow the children to see that the line scale is
continuous and includes the ideas of almost a complete chance, or a
faint chance, or a bit more than an even chance.
Bring-your-own Party
Draw a line across a chart in front of the class. Tell the children that they
are going to a party where they have to take along the things they need.
On the left end of the line write “no chance”, on the right end “complete
chance”, and in the middle “even chance”. At the same time explain to
the children that they are going to think of things that there is no chance
they will take to the party, a complete chance they will take to the party,
or an even chance (half-a-chance) they will take to the party.
Where would you put a drink on the line of chance? Why?
Where would you put an elephant?
Children can suggest things to draw and write in each of the categories
on the line of chance.
© Wendy Pye Publishing Ltd 2011
Maths Language
chance
no chance
even chance
complete chance