CH E 423
Final Project
Ahmad Alhazeem
Introduction
Dealing with different types of energy resources is considered to be a complex processes due to
the fact that there several factors that need to be looked at before going through. These factors
that play a role in determining energy production include environmental, political and
economical impacts that could affect the world in a number of ways. Many debates have
occurred due to global concerns as to what should the next approach of worldwide energy
production should be. The main source of our energy comes from fossil fuels which as time
goes gets depleted more and more. Renewable energy resources have risen distinctly in recent
time where numerous technologies are being made and looked into to provide a solution in
covering the worlds’ energy demands in the future. The problem is that due to costs and the
amount of energy that can be harnessed renewable technologies cannot be a primary source in
energy production. Finding the right balance between non-renewable and renewable energy
resources will be a key factor in covering the worlds’ demand for energy in the best way
possible.
In this project the worlds’ energy demand needs to be covered while being on the rise during
the time period of 2035-2060. There are scenarios that are available in approaching energy
production during that time period. The first approach in scenario one suggests that there is a
global agreement not to constrain CO2, whereas the second approach in scenario two suggests
that there is a global agreement to reduce CO2 emission by 2060 to the 2006 emission levels. So
in both scenarios different kind of decision need to made in order to reach the goal set by 2060
or possibly come close to it.
The world demand growth during the period being evaluated is 1%, according to the EIA, which
is down from 1.33% during 2030-2035 since the growth driven by the developing would have
slowed down by then. As the world demand is increasing, the production of conventional oil
will have a decline rate of -1.5% since by that time there will be much less oil as the world starts
to increase energy production from other fuel sources. Some of those fuel sources include fossil
fuels where natural gas has an increase rate of 0.7% mainly since there is much more available
as the number of ways in using natural gas increases also. Growth rates of other renewables
and hydroelectric are also given at a fixed rate of 0.5% and 2.2% respectively where they would
have a contribution in decreasing the worlds’ dependency on non-renewable resources.
Scenario 1
In this scenario there are no constrains to CO2 emissions as mentioned previously so decisions
have to be made to benefit from this. The general approach that has been made is to increase
the production of energy from resources that produce CO2 to use their larger energy density,
and keep the ‘clean’ energy resources at a constant/reduced growth rate.
To begin with deciding on the growth rates of the different types of energy sources some
alterations were made to make the process more convenient. These include removing the gas
to liquids energy since it is merged with coal to liquids, combining the two types of solar powers
where the PV numbers were used and using ethanol as the main source of biofuel numbers
since it forms the majority of the energy produced. In this particular scenario alternative
technologies were not used and no reduction were made to the CO2 emissions since they’re not
necessarily required when the production of energy from non-renewable sources can be
increased without CO2 emissions constrains. The growth rates of the energy were stated
starting with coal that would increase by 0.85%, which is a slight increase from the previous
rate of 0.7%. Taking advantage of the no constrain to CO2 emissions the unconventional oils
growth rates were head at their maximum potential of 15%, 10%, 10% and 10% for shale oil, oil
sands, extra-heavy oil and coal to liquids respectively. Other energy resources were held at
their constant rates from previous years such as solar (10%), geothermal (3.7%), nuclear (2%)
and wind (7.5%) since there is no need for energy production form these resources to increase
when there is an increased use of fossil fuels. Methane clathrates were also included and had a
maximum possible growth rate of 10%. The growth rate in biofuels had to decrease (2% from
previous 6%) due to that other competing industries, mainly feedstock, would gradually take
over.
The energy production using the rates stated previously is shown where they are separated into
non-renewable (Figure 1) and renewable (Figure 2). The general trend in this scenario can be
seen where all of the unconventional oils are increasing at a moderate rate in Figure 1 while
renewable energy technologies are increasing at a slower and steady rate in Figure 2. As you
can see the major contributors in producing energy in the future are coal and natural gas for
non-renewables while the major contributors in renewables are under the category of ‘other
renewables’ but hydroelectric along with wind and biofuels also look to have an impact in the
future if this scenario.
Energy Produced from Non-renewable Energy
Sources
300
Coal
Enery Produced (quads)
250
Conventional
Oil
Natural Gas
200
shale oil
150
tar sands
100
extra-heavy
oil
coal to liquids
50
0
2035
2040
2045
2050
2055
2060
Year
Figure 1
Energy Produced from Renewable Energy Sources
50
Other renewable
electricity (biomass,
waste)
Other Renewable
(wood, etc, low
growth given)
Hydroelectric
45
Energy Produced (quads)
40
35
30
Solar (PV and
Thermal)
25
20
Geothermal
15
10
Wind
5
0
2035
2040
2045
2050
Year
Figure 2
2055
2060
Biofuels (breakout
by fuel or discuss
beyond 2035)
During the time period between 2035-2060 energy demand is bound to increase and the
energy produced in this scenario needs to meet this demand. An overview of how the demand
is met along this time period is shown in Figure 3. Demand starts at 770 quads in 2035 and
increases to 987 quads by 2060. The energy used is compared to the demand to see how much
energy would be needed to cover the demand or if there is extra energy. The energy used starts
at 770 quads in 2035 and by 2060 is 1050 quads so when this is subtracted from the demand
the deficit appears to be 0 quads at 2035 and then -62 quads by 2060 although there was an
increase during the middle of the time period. This negative deficit shows that by 2060 there
will be more than enough energy to cover the world demand.
1200
1000
demand
Quads of Energy
800
600
400
conventional oil
200
natural gas
0
2035
2040
2045
deficit 2050
2055
2060
-200
Year
Figure 3
So there is no main goal in this scenario since there is no constraint to CO2 emissions. The
majority of the decisions made were to increase the production of energy from non-renewable
energy resources while keeping the production from renewables constant. The total CO 2
emissions during 2035-2060 are shown in Figure 4 where there is a gradual increase in
emissions due to the production from non-renewables that have no constraints. At the
beginning in 2035 the CO2 emissions are 50,040,000,000 metric tons and this increased by the
end of 2060 to 73,200,000,000 metric tons of CO2. Since no agreement to constrain CO2
emissions was made the increase in emissions is typical in this scenario.
Carbon Dioxide Emitted (base
sources,metric tons)
8.50E+10
7.50E+10
6.50E+10
5.50E+10
4.50E+10
2060 Constraint
3.50E+10
2.50E+10
2035
2040
2045
Year
Figure 4
2050
2055
2060
Scenario 2
In this scenario there are constrains to CO2 where emissions need to be reduced to the 2006
emission levels of 28,500,000 metric tons of CO2 by 2060. Decisions have to be made to meet
this goal where the general approach that has been made is to increase the usage of carbon
capture technologies and renewable energy technologies that have no CO2 emissions.
The situation in scenario two is different where different decisions need to be made except
some primary ones that were carried from the first scenario that included combining gas to
liquids with coal to liquids and solar PV with thermal. In this particular scenario alternative
technologies such as proton exchange membrane fuel cells and EV were used as a negative
demand in order to decrease CO2 emissions. Other methods that had a larger impact in
reducing emissions were carbon capture along with the use of IGCC and SOFCs. The use of
carbon capture and IGCC caused the growth rate of coal to increase up to 1.05%. Other types of
energy that had increased growth rates include solar (maximum 15%), nuclear (4%), wind
(maximum 10%) and biofuels (8.5%) where all of them have no CO2 emissions. Energy sources
that produce CO2 have decreased growth rates since the approach in this scenario is to focus
more on ‘clean’ energy sources to decrease the dependency on fossil fuels. Unconventional oils
either have 0% or negative growth rates so that at that time this would probably be the best
way to reach the emission goals set by 2060.
The energy production using the rates stated previously is shown where they are separated into
non-renewable (Figure 5) and renewable (Figure 6). The general trend in this scenario can be
seen where all of the unconventional oils look to be non-factors in Figure 5 while renewable
energy technologies are increasing at a rapid rate in Figure 6. As you can see the major
contributors in producing energy in the future in this scenario are still coal and natural gas for
non-renewables with nuclear catching up at fast pace. The major contributor in renewables is
considered to be biofuels but hydroelectric along with wind and biofuels also look to have an
impact in the future if this scenario.
Energy Produced from Non-renewable Energy
Sources
300
Coal
Enery Produced (quads)
250
Conventional
Oil
Natural Gas
200
shale oil
150
tar sands
100
extra-heavy
oil
coal to liquids
50
Nuclear
0
2035
2040
2045
2050
2055
2060
Year
Figure 5
Energy Produced from Renewable Energy Sources
90
Other renewable
electricity (biomass,
waste)
Other Renewable
(wood, etc, low
growth given)
Hydroelectric
Energy Produced (quads)
80
70
60
50
40
30
Solar (PV and
Thermal)
20
Geothermal
10
0
2035
Wind
2040
2045
2050
Year
Figure 6
2055
2060
For this scenario, the energy demand between the time period 2035-2060 is similar to the
previous scenario where it is bound to increase and the energy produced in this scenario needs
to meet this demand. An overview of how the demand is met along this time period is shown in
Figure 7. Demand starts at 770 quads in 2035 and increases to 987 quads by 2060. The energy
used starts at 770 quads in 2035 and by 2060 is 998 quads so when this is subtracted from the
demand the deficit appears to be 0 quads at 2035 and then -11 quads by 2060 although there
was an increase during the middle of the time period. This scenario produces less energy than
the first due to it restrictions but still has a negative deficit that showing there will be more
than enough energy to cover the world demand in 2060.
1200
1000
demand
Quads of Energy
800
600
400
conventional oil
200
natural gas
0
2035
2040
2045
deficit 2050
2055
2060
-200
Year
Figure 7
So the main goal in this scenario since there is a constraint to CO2 emissions is to get the
emission levels to 28,500,000,000 metric tons of CO2 by 2060. The majority of the decisions
made were to increase the production of energy from renewable energy resources while
decreasing the production from non-renewables constant. The total CO2 emissions during 20352060 are shown in Figure 8 where there is a decline in emissions due to the production from
renewables that have no emissions and the use of carbon capture technologies. At the
beginning in 2035 the CO2 emissions are 35,100,000,000 metric tons and this decreased by the
end of 2060 to 32,900,000,000 metric tons of CO2. Although there was a decline in CO2
emissions, unfortunately the goal was not met by 2060 where it was around 4,000,000,000
metric tons short of the goal set. This might be due to some miscalculations in reductions of
CO2 or the emission levels in 2006 just could not be implemented in 2060 when the demand is
much higher.
Carbon Dioxide Emitted (base
sources,metric tons)
3.70E+10
3.50E+10
3.30E+10
3.10E+10
2060 Constraint
2.90E+10
2.70E+10
2.50E+10
2035
2040
2045
2050
2055
Year
Figure 8
Overall, a series of different choices show that the emission levels can be altered significantly
depending on the type of energy used where each one has its advantages and disadvantages
when harnessing their use for energy purposes.
2060