Number of People with a Learning Disability
Theme: Health and Wellbeing Status
Background Information
A learning disability is defined as the presence of a significantly reduced ability to understand
new or complex information, to learn new skills (impaired intelligence), with a reduced ability to
cope independently (impaired social functioning) which started before adulthood (18 years),
with lasting effect on development. The definition encompasses people with a broad range of
disabilities but does not include all those people who have a “learning difficulty”.
People with learning disabilities are amongst the most vulnerable and socially excluded in our
society. With closures of almost all the long stay hospitals for patients with learning disabilities,
virtually all patients with learning disabilities are now living in the community and depend on
primary health care teams for their primary health care needs (NCHOD, 2008).
Data
The learning disability data consists of the number of people on GP practice disease registers at
the end of March 2009. This data was taken from Quality Management and Analysis System
(QMAS). QMAS is a national system which shows how well each practice is doing, measured
against national Quality and Outcomes Framework achievement targets. Since this only includes
people on GP practice registers it probably underestimates the actual number of people with
learning disabilities in the population.
Future projections to 2030 for the numbers aged 18-64 and 65 and over with a learning
disability were sourced from the Projecting Adult Needs and Service Information (PANSI) and
Projecting Older People Population Information (POPPI) System respectively. These predictions
are based on prevalence rates from a report by Emerson and Hatton of the Institute for Health
Research, Lancaster University (Estimating Future Need/Demand for Supports for Adults with
Learning Disabilities in England, 2004). The above prediction rates were applied to ONS
population projections of the 18-64 and 60 and over population in the years 2011 and 2021 and
linear trends projected to give estimated numbers predicted to have a learning disability, in the
years 2009, 2015, 2030, 2025 and 2030. The subsequent figures may therefore be an
overestimate of the numbers with a learning disability as they are based on an estimate of
prevalence across the national population and have been adjusted to take into account ethnicity
and mortality at a national level only.
Cumbria
At the end of March 2009, there were a total of 1,928 people on GP practice registers in
Cumbria (all ages) with a learning disability. The learning disability prevalence rate for Cumbria
was therefore 0.35% - a value above the average rate for England of 0.30%.
08 February 2010
1
Districts within Cumbria
Within Cumbria, Eden had the lowest number of people with a learning disability on GP practice
registers (167) whilst Carlisle (418) had the highest (Figure 1). However, for all district councils
the prevalence rates were equal to or above that for England ranging from 0.30% in South
Lakeland to 0.45% in Barrow-in-Furness (Figure 2). Only the rates for Carlisle and Barrow-inFurness were greater than the county average.
Figure 1: Number of Patients with a Learning Disability on each GP Practice Disease Register at the end of March 2009
Number of Patients with a learning Disability on each GP Practice Disease Register at the end of
March 2009 (source: QOF, 2008/09)
450
418
404
400
367
357
350
Number of patients
300
250
215
200
167
150
100
50
0
Eden
Copeland
Allerdale
South Lakeland
Furness
Carlisle
Figure 2: 2007-08 Learning Disability Prevalence Rate
% of Patients with a learning Disability on each GP Practice Disease Register at the end of March
2009 (source: QOF, 2008/09)
0.5
0.45
0.45
0.4
0.38
Engalnd Average = 3.0
0.35
Percentage of patients
0.35
0.33
0.33
0.34
Copeland
Allerdale
0.30
0.3
0.25
0.2
0.15
0.1
0.05
0
Cumbria
08 February 2010
South Lakeland
Eden
Carlisle
Furness
2
Learning Disability Projections
Projections from PANSI indicate that the number of people aged 18-64 predicted to have a
learning disability is expected to remain relatively stable in the period 2009-2030 in Cumbria at
ranging from 7,332 in 2015 to 7,240 in 2030 . Within Cumbria, numbers are also projected to
remain stable with only a slight increase in those with a learning disability predicted for Carlisle
whilst Eden, Barrow-in-Furness, Copeland and Allerdale and South Lakeland are projected to
experience a decrease in numbers (Figure 3; Table 1).
Figure 3: 2009-30 18-64 Population Predicted to have a Learning Disability
2009-2030 total population aged 18-64 predicted to have a learning disability (Source: PANSI)
1800
1600
1400
Number of people
1200
1000
800
600
400
200
0
Eden
Copeland
Barrow-in-Furness
Allerdale
South Lakeland
Carlsile
District
2009
08 February 2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
3
Table 1: 2009-30 Percentage Change in 18-64 Population Predicted to have a Learning Disability
Locality
Percentage
Change
Carlisle
4.1
Eden
-0.7
South Lakeland
-0.9
Copeland
-3.1
Barrow-in-Furness
-3.2
Allerdale
-4.6
Cumbria
-1.2
England
8.0
However, projections from POPPI indicate that the number of people aged 65 and over
predicted to have a learning disability is expected to increase in the period 2009-2030 in
Cumbria from 2,0731 in 2009 to 3,365 in 2030 – an increase of 62%. This increase is expected
to be repeated in all district councils (Figure 4).
Figure 4: 2009-30 65 and Over Population Predicted to have a Learning Disability
2009-2030 total population aged 65 and over predicted to have a learning disability (Source: POPPI)
900
800
700
District
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
Allerdale
Barrow-in-Furness
Carlisle
Copeland
Eden
South Lakeland
Number of people
2009
08 February 2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
4
As would be expected given their larger populations, the numbers are predicted to be greatest
in South Lakeland, Carlisle and Allerdale for the period stated but the greatest percentage
increase in the figures is expected for Eden (76%) (Figure 5). With the exception of Barrow-inFurness (48%), the remaining district councils all have a rate of increase in the number of people
aged over 65 with a learning disability greater than the 54% increase for England with Eden,
Copeland and South Lakeland all being above the 62% increase for Cumbria.
Figure 5: 2009-30 Percentage Increase in 65 plus Population Predicted to have a Learning Disability
2009-30 percentage increase in people aged 65 and over predicted to have a learning difficulty
(sourec: POPPI)
100
90
80
Percentage Increase
70
60
England Average (54%)
50
40
30
20
10
0
Allerdale
Barrow-in-Furness
Carlisle
Copeland
Eden
South Lakeland
Cumbria
District
08 February 2010
5