Prioritizing Long Term Multimodal
Transportation Policies for Virginia
Megan Kersh
Asad Saqib
Matthew Schroeder
Ward Williams
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Goal
Develop and demonstrate methodology
for the use of scenario based policy
making and planning by the Multimodal
Office.
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Objectives
 Review scenario based planning
 Identify and classify scenarios
 Identify policies specific to time horizons,
regions, and modes
 Develop methods to compare policies used with
scenarios (cost effectiveness, ROI, etc.)
 Provide examples of all the above
 Make recommendations for the long range plan
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Expected Changes in Virginia
Transportation Demand by 2025
 Outlines expected changes in population, economy,
households, public policy, freight, and passenger travel
 Sources of transportation demand:
• Socioeconomic, policy, and freight trends
 Measures of transportation use:
• Freight movements by mode, automobile use, mode
choice
Source: Vtrans, March 31, 2003
www.virginiadot.org/projects/vtrans/resources/VTransTrendsMarch31F.pdf
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Regions
 Occam’s razor principle for identifying regions
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Time Horizons
• 20 years
• 10 years
• 5 years
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Scenarios
 Spatial
 Economy
 Demographics
• Number of households, in/out-migration
 Other
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Environmental
Availability of energy resources
National emergencies
Natural Disasters
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Methodologies for Scenario
Development
Royal Dutch Shell Approach
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Decide drivers for change/assumptions
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Brainstorming
Bring drivers together into a viable framework
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Recognize relation among factors and group scenarios
Produce initial (7-9) mini scenarios
Reduce to 2-3 scenarios
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Complementary to avoid having to pick a preferred one
Test – is it logical and intuitive?
Draft the scenarios
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Qualitative
Identify the issues arising
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What will have greatest impact, potential for crisis
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Suggested Policies
 Set of policies presented by Vtrans2025
 Presented in phase 3 final report to
General Assembly
 Focuses on four policy areas
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Funding/Investment
Land use
Connectivity
Priority Setting
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Funding/Investment
 Invest More in Transportation
• User fees and taxes must be increased, new sources of funding,
such as indexing fuel taxes to inflation, and greater use of tolling
and General Funds must be considered in order to address
investment needs and increase system capacity.
 Support Transit
 Remove Bias
• The state should not bias the local choice of transit versus
roadways by the way in which it funds the modes
 Fund Rail
 Protect Transportation Trust Fund Revenues
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Land Use
 Strengthen Planning Including Modeling Land
Use Impacts
• Strengthen local and regional planning and enhance
the role of the state as a reliable and active partner in
those planning efforts.
 Manage Access
• Implement access management policies that ensure
greater compatibility of land use and transportation
priorities
 Consider State Versus Local Roles
 Address the Transportation/Land Use Conflict
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Connectivity
 Improve Connections
 Think Multimodally
• Transit, pedestrian, bike and rail-friendly design
features included in new construction
 Take the Lead
• Virginia must lead in connectivity of interstate
corridors
 Invest in Technology
• Maximize the efficiency of the existing transportation
system through developing technology
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Priority Setting
 Use Objective Criteria
• Establish objective criteria for all modes in
order to measure success of projects and
predict success of investments
 Plan Multimodally
• Continue development of the Multimodal
Investment Network (MIN) approach as a
framework for planning and prioritizing
multimodal projects at the state level
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Evaluation Tools for Policies
Goal

To quantify return on investment (ROI)
Potential Tools
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Cost/benefit analysis
Sensitivity analysis
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Weighted matrix
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Shortest path problem – optimize selection of projects given cost and value (ROI)
Statistical Tools
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Use multiple criteria across the board to rank and projects
Deterministic model
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Evaluate scenarios based on different probabilities of likelihood
ANOVA, MANOVA, T-tests, Correlation to test validity and significance of data
Data Cleansing
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Normalization, quantifying qualitative data
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Other Research
 Methodologies for creating future
scenarios
 Futuristic transportation policies
 Research on other case studies that
involve future scenarios and policies
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Overview of FHWA Future Scenario
Planning Methodology
 Step 1: Research the driving forces
• Define the major sources of change that impact the future
 Step 2: Determine patterns of interaction
• How driving forces could combine to determine future conditions
 Step 3: Create scenarios
• Think about implications that different situations could bring about
• Create basic stories based upon the interaction of drivers
 Step 4: Analyze implications
• Try to make graphic visualizations of the scenarios
 Step 5: Evaluate scenarios
• Present to stakeholders and public graphically if possible
• Formulate reasoned responses to respond to change
 Step 6: Monitor indicators
• Scenario planning is an on-going process for a region
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The Washington State Case Study
 Washington brought in 3rd party consulting
team to evaluate 3 projects
• Selecting between building new road,
widening current road, or constructing new
light rail system between 2 cities
 Used cost/benefit and risk analysis
• Generated net present value, internal rate of
return, and cost-benefit ratio based on factors
• Factors: economic growth, travel delays,
travel costs, environmental concerns, etc.
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Future Research and Goals
 Continue research of future scenarios,
policies, and evaluation tools
 Create methodologies for comparing
policies with a financial focus
 Consider both opportunistic and
problematic future scenarios
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