Quantifying the Flu - Science Case Network

George:
Hey Mary, how’s it going? With finals coming up, my life is
crazy! I sure hope I don’t get the flu again like I did last
year…my gen chem grade took a nose dive!
Mary:
So did you get your flu shot? I did.
George:
No way I’m wasting $30 bucks on a flu shot. I got one last
year and I still got sick. So sick I missed the Falcon’s
game and had to watch it on TV at Jim’s party. Jim got
one too and he got the stomach flu. Besides aren’t you
worried about side effects from the flu shot?
Mary:
Shoot, no! Besides if you get the shot you won’t
spread the flu to others. I heard on TV that a
certain percentage of the population have to be
protected or we could have an epidemic, like the
one in 1918. I think over 20 million people died!
George:
Are you sure that was flu? I’m gonna ask my Bio
prof.
Suppose you want students to
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Visualize flu data trends?
Make graphs?
Interpret data?
Use a Model?
Address Flu Virus evolution?
Address Historical Epidemics?
Relate Flu evolution to Emerging Diseases?
Investigate How Flu Vaccines are Constructed?
Recommend Priorities in a Vaccine Shortage?
Scene 2: Investigating Data Trends
http://www.google.org/flutrends/
Download world flu activity data - Animated
flu trends for Google Earth - Compare flu
trends across regions in Public Data Explorer
"Data Source: Google Flu Trends
(http://www.google.org/flutrends)".
http://flutracker.rhizalabs.com/
H1N1 maps
http://gamapserver.who.int/mapLibrary/Files/MapsGlobal_SubNat_H5N1inAnimalCo
.
nfirmedCUMULATIVE_20070329 png
Scene 2:Using a Model
Later that day…
George:
Wow! My bio prof showed me a neat program to
look at the effects of people getting
vaccinated. Let me show you….It’s called the
SIR module.
http://www.bioquest.org/esteem/esteem_result.
php
• http://bioquest.org/esteem/
• Modules for Exploratory Experiential
Data Analysis Using Excel
250
200
# People
150
100
50
0
0
50
# Susceptible
# Recovered
100
# Infected
Time
Starting Population
# Susceptible:
# Infected:
# Recovered:
200
21
0
Epidemiological Parameters
Initial Transmission Rate:
0.39
39
Post-Intervention Transmission Rate:
0.04
4
Recovery Rate:
0.20
20
Intervention Time:
10
The Biological ESTEEM Project
P–S
d
S
Ext. =
a
Imm. =
The ESTEEEM
Project Homepage
http://bioquest.org/esteem
55 modules: Broad range
of topics and data sets
Define the
problem
Analyze the problem
What is known?
What information do you need to
investigate?
Summarize
Generate
hypotheses
(create product/assessment
that demonstrates
understanding)
Yes
No
Is the case
complete?
Exchange new
information
Identify
resources
Collect new
information
(Internet, books, journals,
interviews, labs and simulations)
Module
Main Page
• Screenshots &
brief description
• Mathematical
expression
• Research articles
& primary data
• User manual &
curriculum materials
(in progress)
• Downloadable
Excel sheet
Population growth (Continuous Growth Models)
Bioinformatics (Pairwise Alignment)
Gene regulation (Operon)
Population
genetics
Epidemiology (SIR Model)
Structure prediction (Protein Analysis)
Phylogenetics (EvolSeq)
Biochemistry (MichaelisMenten Enzyme Kinetics)
Exploring Flu Evolution: Case-IT
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http://www.caseitproject.org
Restriction digests and mapping
PCR
DNA Electrophoresis
Southern blots and dot blots
Microarray analysis
Protein electrophoresis
ELISA
Has cases and software for simulations
Workshop at this conference
More on the handout
The great aim of education is not
knowledge but action.
Herbert Spencer (1820 - 1903)
Authentic Assessments
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Educational brochures
Letters to editor, government agency
Units for younger students
Magazine articles
Be creative!
Thanks
• You!
• John Jungck, Margaret Waterman and
Ethel Stanley: BioQUEST, Lifelines
• Jay Justice and Jordan Rose: PRISM
• PRISM grad students and teachers
• John Pelasco, U Del
• HHMI NSF and Emory for $$$