New trends in China energy
consumption
Coal consumption: Outlook changed completely in
a few short years
China coal use vs. IEA forecast (Dec
2014)
China coal imports vs. Peabody
projection (2012)
2500
500
450
400
2000
350
300
Mtoe
Mt
1500
250
200
1000
150
100
500
50
Data
IEA forecast
NEA forecast (Apr 2016)
Data
Peabody: low
Peabody: high
2016
2015
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
2009
0
2008
0
billion tonnes
China's implied coal consumption vs. IEA
450ppm scenario
(12-month sum)
5.00
4.50
4.00
3.50
3.00
2.50
2.00
1.50
1.00
0.50
0.00
-0.50
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Net Imports
Production
Stock changes
Consumption (Implied)
Consumption, IEA 450ppm scenario
Growth in electricity generation by source
80
60
57
40
47
20
terawatt-hours
28
36
25
13
0
11
4
19
27
-20
2015
-40
2016H1
-66
-60
-80
-100
-120
-121
-140
Thermal power Hydropower
Wind
Solar
Nuclear
Demand
What does consumption-driven growth mean for energy use?
Direct energy use intensity by sector
1000
Heavy industry sectors will have to
adjust to lower levels of investment
in real estate, industrial capacity
and infrastructure, and to
saturated export markets 
industrial coal consumption will
continue to fall
900
800
gce / yuan value added
700
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
Light industry
Chemicals
Cement&Glass
Coal and coke
Iron&Steel
Petroleum
Non-ferrous metals
Electricity
Other heavy
industry
Services
Residential
Consumption
Other energy
Calculated from China Energy Statistical Yearbook 2015
Lots of room to strengthen targets
Implications for air pollution:
Industrial clusters still dominate emissions (SO2,
2014-2015 average)
DU
Outlook for oil
Breakdown of China's oil consumption by sector
(2014)
Others
10%
Oil refining
11%
Buildings
3%
Transport: Kerosene
5%
Chemicals
12%
Construction
materials
4%
Transport: Diesel
23%
Other industry
11%
Transport: Gasoline
10%
Construction
7%
Agriculture
4%
>50% of oil consumption tied
to heavy industry,
<20% to passenger transport
Legend
Linked to overcapacity sectors
Linked to consumer demand
Oil use declines with energy system
modernization
Others
煤电投资泡沫
120000
5500
100000
5000
80000
4500
发电总量，亿千瓦时
60000
4000
火电发电量，亿千瓦时
火电容量, 万千瓦
利用小时(右纵轴)
40000
3500
20000
3000
0
2500
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
合理的容量水平*
*基于5000小时利用率
Key messages
• Coal is in structural decline
• Era of fast CO2 growth is over; timing of CO2 peak depends
on success in clean energy growth and transitioning to
economic “new normal”
• Economic restructuring is an enormous opportunity for
climate, environment and improving living standards
• But: overcapacity and downscaling of the heavy industry
complex present enormous institutional challenges
• Incredibly and unexpectedly fast progress in reducing
emissions gives China a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity to
play a key positive role in international climate policy
Thank you!