Do Interest Groups affect Immigration?
Giovanni Facchini
University of Illinois and Università degli Studi di Milano
Anna Maria Mayda
Georgetown University
Prachi Mishra
Research Department, IMF
1
Motivation
• Vast empirical literature on the effects of immigration
on outcomes in the US labor market.
• Knowledge on the determinants of migration flows
limited -- to the supply side (i.e. see Clark, Hatton
and Williamson, 2007).
• Borjas (1994)
“…The literature does not yet provide a systematic analysis
of the factors that generate the host country demand for
immigrants.”
2
Motivation (contd)
• Key factor determining demand for immigrants –
migration policy in rich countries
• Anecdotal evidence highlights role played by special
interest groups
– Unions historically supportive of measures restrictive of
migration. Eg. Chinese exclusion act (1882), Literacy Test
provision (1917), Immigration Control and Reform Act
(1986)
– Complementarities matter e.g. Silicon Valley excetutives
trooped before Congress, warning of a Y2K disaster unless
the number of H1-B visas was increased (Goldsborough
2000)
3
Motivation (contd)
• Recent theoretical literature has looked at the issue
(Facchini and Willmann 2005).
• No systematic empirical evidence on the determinants
of migration policy and, in particular, on the role
played by pressure groups in shaping it.
• The purpose of this paper is to help fill this gap.
4
What we do
• Develop a simple theoretical model to be used as the
basis of our empirical specification.
We model migration policy and outcomes as the result of
the contributions paid, in each sector, by the pro-migration
lobby (the owners of capital) and by the anti-migration
lobby (workers).
• Evaluate key predictions of the model using a unique,
U.S. industry-level dataset that combines information
on the number of immigrants with data on the
political activities of organized groups, both in favor
and against an increase in migration.
5
Main result
• Both pro- and anti-immigration interest groups
play a statistically significant and economically
relevant role in shaping migration across
sectors.
• Barriers to migration are higher in sectors
where (anti-immigration) labor unions are
more important, and lower in those sectors in
which (pro-immigration) business lobbies are
more active.
6
Outline of the presentation
• Literature
• Theoretical Model
• Empirical strategy
• Data (CPS and CRP)
• Empirical results
• Conclusions
7
Related Literature
• Theoretical literature: Facchini and Willman (2005):
interest-group politics.
• Related empirical literature
– Hanson and Spilimbergo (2001) – effect of output prices on
border enforcement in Mexico-US border states
– Works on the political economy of protection in international
trade, e.g - Goldberg and Maggi (1999), Gawande and
Bandyopadhyay (2000).
8
Protection function model
o Following Findlay and Wellisz (1982) and Eicher and Osang
(2002), we assume the following protection function:
i  1   (CiL ) 2  (1   )(Cik ) 2
where λ represents the the weight of labor in the protection
function and (1-λ) the weight of capital.
o Notice that the policy function is increasing with the
contributions received by the organized workers and
decreasing with the contributions received by the owners of the
specific factor.
9
o The two lobby play a non-cooperative game where they
choose the amount to contribute to the government in
order to maximize their net welfare.
o Solving simultaneously the system of first-order
conditions of the two lobbies gives rise to the following
expression:
L  b 1 1   iL
(1   ) CiK
mi  (
) (
)li 
2
2  iL
2 iL  CiL
where  iL is the share of the population that owns labor
used in the production of output i.
10
Empirical specification
The empirical specification of the model is:
M i  C K ,i  C L,i  X i   i .
According to the theoretical model, we expect to find:
  0 and   0 .
11
Data
• Newly available dataset from the Center for Responsive Politics
(CRP) that allows us to identify lobbying expenditures associated
with targeted policy area. 1998 and 2005 - at the firm level,
aggregated to industry by CRP industry classification.
• Number of immigrants and natives, union membership rates of
native workers, from the Current Population Survey (CPS) (March
Annual Demographic File and Income Supplement to the CPS) –
Census Bureau classification
• H1B visas (number of petitions approved) by industry from DHS
• Output, price, capital, FDI – BEA, ACES
• Various industry concordances to create the final dataset at
industry level at the Census Bureau classification – 130 3-digit
industries
12
Appendix 2. Sample Lobbying Report
13
Table 1. Targeted Political Activity Campaign Contributions and Lobbying Expenditures
In millions of US Dollars
Election cycle
1999-2000
2000-02
2002-04
326
348
461
Overall lobbying exp
Of which exp for immigration
2954
32
3333
24
4052
33
Total targeted political activity
3280
3681
4513
Contributions from PACs
Source. Center for Responsive Politics
14
Figure 1. Scatter Plots between Lobbying Expenditures
and Campaign Contributions from PACs
2
0
-2
-4
-4
-2
0
2
Campaign contributions from PACs (in logs)
4
4
Campaign contributions from PACs and overall lobbying expenditures Campaign contributions from PACs and lobbying expenditures on immigration
(in millions of US$)
(in millions of US$)
-2
0
2
4
6
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
Lobbying expenditures for immigration (in logs)
Overall lobbying expenditures (in logs)
(mean) lgcontributionsfrompacs
Fitted values
(mean) lgcontributionsfrompacs
Fitted values
15
Figure 2. Real lobbying expenditures (in million USD)
2200
25
2000
20
1800
15
1600
10
1400
overall_cont_mnUSD_real
cont_imm_mnUSD_real
5
1200
1000
0
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
16
Figure 3. Share of expenditures for immigration
(in percent)
2.0
1.6
1.2
0.8
0.4
0.0
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
17
Hospitals &
Nursing Homes
Computers/Internet
Misc Issues
Oil & Gas
Business Services
Education
Telecom Services
& Equipment
Defense Aerospace
Agricultural
Services &
Products
Automotive
In millions of US dollars
Figure 4. Top 10 spenders for immigration, 2005
3.0
2.5
2.0
1.5
1.0
0.5
0.0
18
Construction
Educational
services
Eating and drinking
places
Misc business
services
Medical and other
health services
Hospitals
Agriculture
Misc professional
services
Food stores
Banking and credit
agencies
In billions
Figure 5. Top 10 Sectors with the Highest Number of Immigrants, 2005
25.0
20.0
15.0
10.0
5.0
0.0
19
Figure 6. Scatter plot between lobbying expenditures for immigration and number of immigrants
246
14
679
868
105
869
888
808
8
10
12
636
836
367
826
716
646
816
746
448
626
849
526
698
916
896 399
859
899
609
346
736
406
358 667
386
656 846
898
936
309
376
469
726
578
357
556
659
658
536 817 516 879
377
668669
857 467 807
416
687 408
616
419
696
608 338 617
527 449
856688
439
336
806 607
307
417
308
689
606
586
457
458
317
478
699
316
226
657
418
436 379
546
456
407
489
686
596
337
409
326
378
647
506
438 387
579
476
627
319
348 847
446
488
618
437
468 347318
236
587116
588
858
306
126
637
697
619
598 848
388 426 477
429
206 567
356
487
6
216
0
5
10
15
Lobbying expenditures for immigration (in logs)
(mean) lgWGHTimmind1950
Fitted values
20
Figure 7. Scatter plot between lobbying expenditures for immigration and number of immigrants
12
10
348
8
619
216
10
12
14
4
6
8
Lobbying expenditures for immigration (in logs)
lgWGHTimmind1950
10
Fitted values
lgWGHTimmind1950
888 808
868105
869
836
367
716
816
448
346358
399
609 916
386
667859
357
899
898516
309
556
376 936 879
726
817
536
669 469 377
408
307
668
416
467
419
338
586
607 617
608 457
316478606
418
417
407
456
489
378 226
458
546
409 326
308
319 488 387
476
116 619
618
579
318 206236356
10
12
Number of immigrants (in logs)
348
8
12
6
14
14
808
888
105
868
836 869
367
448
816
399 358716
916
609
667
346
859
726
386 936 376736556
656
309
898357
377
659
899516 668
536 469
658
857
416879 467669
408
307817 419
687
616
807
308
617 688
696
608 338
606
856
657
417226
458
689
686
317607 316
456
647
489
478
326
546
409457
587 418
699
387
476
356
306
579
477 567
697
378
468
488
618
858
206
637
619
388
348 487
318
10
14
Fitted values
2001
246
679
636
646
698
8
12
Lobbying expenditures for immigration (in logs)
2000
Number of immigrants (in logs)
858 619
206 356
618
6
356
6
808
487
206
4
246
888
868
105
836869
367
826
816
399 358
849626 916
667
609
846 346
859
556
898
357
516936
536
377
309
386 817899 469
669
879 376
338
807
467
419 416
607 688
668
307 617
408
527
226
546
608 458
478
417
308457
317
409 326
806 606
476587
489488
456
236
627
596
378
306316
426387
418
468318
847
319
448
896
8
8
647126
697
Number of immigrants (in logs)
12
10
696
689
657
699
686
637
808
246888
868
869105
636
836 367
448
716
646
816
526
399
698
667
736
358
916
346
859376578
609
656
406
386
357
936
309879
469
898
726 377
857
899
659
817
556
658
668
536 416
516
408
467 669
608
439
546 617
687
419
449
308458
338
616
417
307
488
856 226
489 436
478
606
336
379
607
337 326457 378
456 618
387
409 317
319
506
476
418
446 468 318 858 236316
306
437
438
487
587
14
1999
679
6
Number of immigrants (in logs)
14
1998
388
578
426
306
6
4
236
0
5
10
15
4
6
Lobbying expenditures for immigration (in logs)
lgWGHTimmind1950
8
Fitted values
lgWGHTimmind1950
697
6
888
899
836
12
10
126
348
388
487
426
808
888
868
105 869
836
816 367
746
526
399896
916
448
859
406
609
358 667
578
346
309
516
898
386
376936556
899
469 357
726
817
377 467
857
536
669
879
668
416
338
617 856
419
608
408457 307
226
417
336
546
458
478606
418
316456
326 607 308
489
476
409
319
337 586378
588
579
618
619
318
488
387356
587
206
306
216
8
637
126
426
868
869 105
367
746
859
609
916
346
898
309 358 936
578
399
386
817
357
668 879
467
416
807
377
669
408
419 857
856
617
308236
608
579
456
417
457
316
688
418
348
338
489
618
319
407
478
409
378
458
226 476
546
307
306
488
206 347
587
619
858
318
808
448
406
556
477
236
0
5
216
10
15
6
Lobbying expenditures for immigration (in logs)
lgWGHTimmind1950
8
10
Fitted values
lgWGHTimmind1950
8
808
15
888
868105
869
899
636 716
836
646
849
746
816367
826
626
916
859609
698
667
406
346
469 386
898448
726
376
846
936
656
879
659 467817399
658
536
807
309
358
516668
357
578
377 556
669
687 416
408
419
696
608
527 806
699 616
579
607606 308617
689
236
418
457
417
348 458
338
478
596
318
688 407
316
347
307456
657 409
546
489
306
618
126 378
686
226587476
326 319
488 858
619
697
426
116
246
679
888
105
868
899
636
836
716
646
816
367859
698
667
916
346936
609
448406 469309
376
726
898
656
399
386
817
659
536
668
807879
658
358
556
696
687 357 467 669
578 377
516
408
419 856
616 608236 606
308 617
316
416 857 688 418 579
689
338348607
457
407
317
478
657 699
417
686
378
307
458
326
618
409
318126
489
488
226
306 456
619
587
546
697 319
476
116
426
347
477
206
567
10
Number of immigrants (in logs)
14
12
10
627
14
Fitted values
2005
679
848
12
Lobbying expenditures for immigration (in logs)
2004
808
869
588
468
5
216
6
Number of immigrants (in logs)
14
2003
246
Number of immigrants (in logs)
14
12
10
696
647
699
657
689
686
8
Number of immigrants (in logs)
646
698
656
658
659
616
687
12
Fitted values
14
2002
679
636
10
Lobbying expenditures for immigration (in logs)
0
5
10
Lobbying expenditures for immigration (in logs)
lgWGHTimmind1950
Fitted values
15
5
10
15
Lobbying expenditures for immigration (in logs)
lgWGHTimmind1950
Fitted values
21
Figure 8. Scatter plot between union membership rates and number of immigrants
246
14
679
808
105 868
888
8
10
12
869
636
836
367
826
716
646
816
746 448
626
849
526
459
698
916
896
859
899
609
399 346
667
736
358406
846
386 309
656
898
376936
469
726
578
357
568
879
659
516 556
817
658
536
377
668
669
807
467
857
408 416
687
616
419
696
617449
608527
338
688
856
439
336
466
806
607
689308
606307 417
586
457
458
317
478
699
316
657
436226
546
456
379
407 418
597
489
686
596
337
409
326
378
647
438
387579
476
627
319
446 348
488
618
437
318
347 116
236
468
587
588
858
126
637 306
697
619
848
598
388
429 426
477
206
567
356
487
906
506
6
216
0
.2
.4
.6
.8
Union membership rates (in logs)
(mean) lgWGHTimmind1950
Fitted values
22
Figure 9. Scatter plot between union membership rates and number of immigrants
14
1999
888
246
12
10
906
Number of immigrants (in logs)
506
8
10
12
636
826448 836
716
816
646746
626
399
526
896
698
667
459
849
736
358
859
346
656846
376
406 609916
578
386
357
936
309
469
898
568
879
726
857
899
659
377
817
556
658
668
536
416
669
516
408
807
467
608
439 687 688 449
696
546
419
458
617616
308
338
417
586
226
307
689
488856
657
436
489
606
527
478
699
336
326
457 379
597
407 378
337
686607806
456
387
409
618
317596
319
858
236
627
476
318
418
316
446
468
477
647697
126
306
437
588
598
438
579
487
587
429
8
679
246
888
808
105 868
836367869
636
826
448646
716
746
816
626 896399
849
526
698
459
358
916
667
609
846 736 346859
406
936 556
898899
357
726
516
656
659
536
377
309 469
386
817
669
376 578
568
879
658
857 338
616
807
688
416
467
419
607
668
449
307
336
408
527
226
439
617
546
657
696
597
687
608
458 478
417586
308
856457
436 689
437 686
409326
587
606 317
476
489
337456
488 806 236 379
699
637
627
116
316 596
378
318
306
418
468
387
407 477
438
869
367
6
619
697
618
647
356
858
356
619
216
0
.2
.4
.6
.8
0
.2
Union membership rates (in logs)
lgWGHTimmind1950
.4
lgWGHTimmind1950
14
6
12
14
679
246
808
888
105868
869
836
367
636
826
716
816
646
849
626 896
448
746
346
459
526
358
698
399 406
916
386
667357 859609
736846
899
578
656
898
309
556 516 376
568
936
879
726
817
658
469
536
669
377
408
616
659
307
807
668
416
467
419 338
696
857
687
617 478
457
586
607
608
336597
317606
449 418856
527
316
806
439 407
688 417699
596
647
689
489
378
226
379
458
686
436
546
438
657 326 308
409
319
387
476
337
627
116
619
468
618
126
356
697
579
318
388
206 236
10
906
506
8
Number of immigrants (in logs)
12
10
.8
Fitted values
2001
246
888
868
869
836
636
367
826 816 448
896
746
716646
526
459
626399
916
849
698
667
346
859 846 406 358 609
578
726
736 309
556
386
376 516
656
936
898
357
377
659
899469
536
658
568669
879
668
857
416 408
817
467
687
616
807
419 307
449
439
688
308
527 617
696
336
608 597
856 606
338
657
226686607
417
458
689
317
456
647
436
586
379
316
478
326
546
806
457 337
409
418
407
587
437
699
387
596
116
476
356
306
438
477
697
468
618 378
567
627
858
206
637
619
318
446
679
808
105
8
.6
Union membership rates (in logs)
Fitted values
2000
Number of immigrants (in logs)
319
206
446
487
206
906
506
6
Number of immigrants (in logs)
14
1998
679
808
105 868
906
456
588
488
506
426
306
6
4
236
0
.2
.4
.6
0
.2
Union membership rates (in logs)
lgWGHTimmind1950
.4
lgWGHTimmind1950
2002
14
12
Number of immigrants (in logs)
906
456
506
6
8
598
10
14
12
10
8
Number of immigrants (in logs)
246
888
808
868
105 899 869
836
636
716
646
367
746
849
826
816
859
609
626459 526
698
916
448
667
346
736
406
898
469
309
358
578 936
399
846
386
656
896
376
726
817
668
357
536
568
659
556
879
658
516
687
467807
416 377
669 408 419
446
527
857
856
806
617
308
236 317 466
608 616
696
579
336586
456
607417
699
457
688
316
439 606
326
418596
348
338
489
689
337
618
686
436
407
438 458
478 319 378
657
409
379
468 588
226
546
437
476
697
307 597
116
627
306
488477
206
347
587
619
858
318
598
848
216429
679
477
236
.2
.4
.6
.8
0
.2
.4
Union membership rates (in logs)
lgWGHTimmind1950
15
10
906
Number of immigrants (in logs)
14
12
10
.8
1
2005
869
899836
636
716
646
849
746
816 367
826
626
859
916
459
526
609
698
667
406
346
448
736
386
469
898
726
376 936
846
896
656
879
659
658
817
399
536
807
309
467
358
516 556
668357669
377 578 568
687
416
408
419
696
616
527
699
857
308
806
856608
607
446
617
689 418 579
236
606
336
417348
586 457
338
458
337
438
317 379
478
466
407
318 439
596
688
316
436
347
409
456
307
627
657
468
489
429546
306
378
126
686 618
476
848
226
587
319
326
858
488 437
619
597
588
697
426
477
116
8
426
Fitted values
246
679
808
888
105
868
899 869
636
836
716
646
826
816859
367 526
746
849
698
736 626
459
667
916
936
346
609
448
469
406 376
896
309
726
898
656
399
386
817
846
659
879
536
668658 358 568
807
377
696
687
669
357
467
578
527
408
419
617
616 856 688 308
446
608
236
606
806
857
579
416
689
336
466
586
418316
607
338
439 407 348
457
627
317
379
478
438
417657
699 337
686
378
307
458
326
618
409
318
126 226
489
596456
488
436
619 306 319
587
546
697
476
437
426116
347
429
477
206
567
888
506
906
556
516
597
506
588
848
468
5
216
6
Number of immigrants (in logs)
506
.6
lgWGHTimmind1950
246
808
868
906
Union membership rates (in logs)
Fitted values
2004
679
105
.8
Fitted values
2003
246
888
105 868
869
636
836
716
816
367
646
746
826 698
526 916
626
896
849
859 399
448
459406
609
736
846
358
578
346
656
667
309
516
898
386
936376
899
556
357568
469
726
817
658807
467
377 857
669
536
659
879668
416
616
439
687617
338
449 419
688
608
856
307 597 457
696
226527
408
417
336
546
438
806
647
458 407
478
699
607
657 606
418
689
316
326308317 379
436
489
596
476586
409 468
686
337
378319
588
579
618
126
619
627
437
318
116
429
488
446
387
356
697
388
587
487
206
306
426
216
679
808
0
.6
Union membership rates (in logs)
Fitted values
0
.2
.4
.6
Union membership rates (in logs)
lgWGHTimmind1950
Fitted values
.8
0
.2
.4
.6
.8
Union membership rates (in logs)
lgWGHTimmind1950
Fitted values
23
15
Figure 10. Scatter plot between lobbying expenditures for immigration and number of H1B visas
10
898
5
899
598
637
647
868
726367
869
399 807
579
357 467716 859
879
806
836
246
376
387 626
669
698 679
358
746
388
617
448
556
588 469386
857
226
586 377 105
856
849
609
616
896
916
636
426656
418
659 356607 606817
309
546 816
667
347
658
526
348
646
236478
696
308
317
668
206
216
468
456
488
316
346
378
408
618
627
687
417
326
476
587
596 477 409
516336 407
337 116
578
527 489
697
936
608338
619
688
567
319
318
406
416
419
657699
126 858
536
458
457
826
487 689
686
307
306
846
808
0
848
888
0
5
10
15
Lobbying expenditures for immigration (in logs)
(mean) lgh1b
Fitted values
24
Figure 11. Scatter plot between lobbying expenditures for immigration and H1B visas (by year)
899
898
10
12
2002
898
10
2001
Number of H1B visas (in logs)
2
4
348
306
4
6
696
578
637
697
647
699
657
689
686
307
307
8
10
12
14
0
5
Lobbying expenditures for immigration (in logs)
lgh1b
467859
879
246
376 836669
387
617 358
746
469 448 386
698388679
226
588
8377
57 105
856
556 609
586
616
896
636
816
426
418
656
659
916
606
546
526607 356
667
658
348
309
817 378
646
308
668
216
236
456
618
316
478
408
346
488 206
326
687
477
476
417 409
337
336
587
608
578
338516
489567
619 936
319
318
406
416457
419
458
858
126
487
536
357
5
6
388
399
808
10
Fitted values
lgh1b
12
10
556
627
0
598
2
307
848
306
8
10
12
14
0
Lobbying expenditures for immigration (in logs)
lgh1b
888
868
399807 367 869
579
716
357
859
467
879
669
806
836
698 679376
626
358
746
448
469617
386
105
377 556
849226
609
616
636 309
656
418
426
816
916
667
546
658
347
659
478
348 607606
817
646
308
696
488 236
206 408
316456 668 346
326
216
687417
409
618
476 516 407
596
587
378
578
527697 489567 608
619 936 116
318319
406 338
416
419688
657
126
536
858458
826699
457
686
689
307
846
726
8
357
859879 467
836
669
448 617 746358
916 105
386
377
857
609
226 856
418
309
546
347
817
348 478
456
668
236
308
618
206 488408
346 378
216409316
417
407
476
608
578
587
936
489
619 688
406
319
318
416
419
338
567
858
458 457
899
808
6
868
869
367
579
Number of H1B visas (in logs)
807
4
10
5
399
898
888
899
6
Fitted values
2004
898
126
15
Lobbying expenditures for immigration (in logs)
2003
426
868
726869808
579
367
0
8
579
399
367
726
868
869
357
387
716
859
467
879
376
836
377
617
358 226
556
586 105
448 386
669 469
609
817
587
816
606
916
426 236356
418
546
607
309
206 216
667
478
346
488
316
378
308
476
456
408
417 668
516 618
326
489
407
936
116 338
409
619
419
416
608 457458
567536
319318858
888
899
888
5
10
808
15
Lobbying expenditures for immigration (in logs)
Fitted values
lgh1b
Fitted values
15
2005
10
898
5
899
869
808
0
468
888
868
726
367
807
399
716
579
357 467 669
879
376 246859
836
698
358
448 469 386
556 377
617 679226
857 916 105
588
609
856
656
636 309
426616 658
418
546
659478
347
816667
236 606
348607
668
308646 817 346378
317 206
687
696
408 216
316 456 417
488
326
618
407
476
409 489477
587
516
697 319318
936 688 578
338 608 116
406 567619 416419
536
657
686 126
858
699
458
457
689
307
306
5
10
15
Lobbying expenditures for immigration (in logs)
lgh1b
Fitted values
25
15
Figure 12. Scatter plot between union membership and number of H1B visas
10
898
888
899
506
906
0
5
868
726 808
399
367579869
807
716357 459
736
467 859
879
806
246
376
387836
669
626
568
698
358
746
679
388
617
448 469377
386
105
556
857
588
226 856
586
849
616
896 609 379
449
916
656
816
418426 636 356
659
309
546
667
606
607
347 526
658
817
348478
646
236
466
436
696
308
317
668
216
206
468
456
439
488
316 597
346
378
408
618
627
687
417
326
476
587 598 516
409
596477
446
429 407
337
336
578
437
527
489
116
936
608688 697
619
338
567
318
319 416
406
419
647
438
657
126
858
699
458
457
637
826536
487
686
848689
307
306
846
0
.2
.4
.6
.8
Union membership rates (in logs)
(mean) lgh1b
Fitted values
26
Figure 13. Scatter plot between union membership rates and H1B visas (by year)
0
.2
.4
.6
10
888
888
888
888
888
579
868
399
808
868
726
726
367
868
869
726
868
869
367
399
726
726
367
808
869
807
807
579
579
808
808
399
807
367
399869
808
459
399
579
807
367
869
716
807
716
579
357
459
716
357
387
459
357
459
459
716
716
736
736
859
467
859
879
467
669
736
879
357
859
467
357
467
736
669
879
467
879
806
879
859
836
806
836
246246
246
376 376
246 376 376
836
698
836
669
698
246
568
626
626
746
746
358
377
679
568
617
568
376
387
679
568
626
448
698
358
568
448
617
746
358
469
679
626
698
679
388
386
669
358
448
226
469
386
105
746
469
358
617
617
556
698
469
856
857
556
226
746
469
588556
679
448
916
617
105
386
857
377
377
105
448
386
388
379
386
669
105
379
377
857
916
857
586586
377
849
586
896
609
556 588
896
105
586588
379
226
616
609
856
849
856
379 857
588588
586 556
616
226
609
379
896
849
226
616
449
609
856 609
616
856
849
896
616
656
636
636
636
449
816
418418
426
656
816
816
587
817
309
309
916
896
656
636
659
667
816
418
606
6
309
67
418
546
426
667
546
656
916 356 347
546
658659
659
347
659
658
606
607
916
656
426
606
607
418
546
478
816
658
526
636
478
236
356
546
607
606
646
667
526
466
526
348
466
309
658
607
817
646
607
236
606
348
309
817
236
817
308
668
817
696
526348
308
216
646
206
668
667
526
378
478
436
646
317
456 488
687
696
317
439
488
696
456
439
468
436
658
308
236
317
346
378
696
308
627
668
206
456
206
316
466
488
468
478
317
408
326
216
216
439
216
378
618
436
346
468
236
627
687
316
468
346
316
618
417
488
206
597
316
326
478
409
468
408
316 456
408
596
346
417
618
408
696
488
439
378
346
206
618
308
317
216
597
578
409
417
597
597
409
476
477
446
627
596
476
439
687
446
407
429
326
477
476
407
326
446
477
618
687
407
476
516
456
598
417
408
417
596
409
516
597 598
668
477
429
587
476
506
429
506 506
378
407
446
506 506
587
437
527
337
336
627
326
596
596
687
446
578
489
337
336
516
437
697
337
337
336
336
608
337
336
587
116
527
407
936
516 598
429
697
567
516
527
527116
936
697
578
936
527
578
578
619
318
699
319
116697
338
587 116
437
936
409
438
608
608
688
116
338
567
489
619
338
688
438
619
319
338
126
419
406
416
697
406
419
318
657
406
419
406
419
416416
936
416
608
567
338
457 318
319
458
318 319
647
688
688
126
438
657
567
567
858
699
686
699
438
536
858
318
419
406
416
319
458
457458 457
826
826
458
826
536
637
657
657
647
689
686
858
826
126
457
686
438
848
487
689
699
536
906
458
457
699
689
686
826
848
689
307
307
307
906906906
906
306
846
846
307307
846306
306 846846
426
5
5
579
868
399
808
868
726
726
367
868
869
726
868
869
367
399
726
726
367
808
807
807
869
579
579
808
808
399
807
367
399869
808
459
399
579
807
367
869
716
807
716
579
357
459
716
357
387
459
357
459
459
716
716
736
736
859
467
859
879
467
669
736
879
357
859
467
357
467
736
669
879
467
879
806
879 859
836
806
836
246246
246
376 376
246 376 376
836
698
836
669
698
246
568
626
626
746
746
358
377
679
568
617
568
376
387
679
568
626
448
698
358
568
448
617
746
358
469
679
626
698
679
388
386
669
358
448
226
469
386
105
746
469
358
617
617
556
698
469
856
857
556
226
746
469
588556
679
448
916
617
105
386
857
377
377
105
448
386
388
379
386
669
105
379
377
857
916
857
586586
377
849
586
896
609
556 588
896
105
586588
379
226
616
609
856
849
856
379 857
588588
586 556
616
226
609
379
896
849
226
616
449
609
856 609
616
856
849
896
616
656
636
636
636
449
816
418418
426
656
816
816
587
817
309
309
916
896
656
636
659
667
816
418
606
6
309
67
418
546
426
667
546
656
916 356 347
546
658659
659
347
659
658
606
607
916
656
426
606
607
418
546
478
816
658
526
636
478
236
356
546
607
606
646
667
526
466
526
348
466
309
658
607
817
646
607
236
606
348
309
817
236
817
308
668
817
696
526348
308
216
646
206
668
667
526
378
478
436
646
317
456 488
687
696
317
439
488
696
456
439
468
436
658
308
236
317
346
378
696
308
627
668
206
456
206
316
466
488
468
478
317
408
326
216
216
439
216
378
618
436
346
468
236
627
687
316
468
346
316
618
417
488
206
597
316
326
478
409
468
408
316 456
408
596
346
417
618
408
696
488
439
378
346
206
618
308
317
216
597
578
409
417
597
597
409
476
477
446
627
596
476
439
687
446
407
429
326
477
476
407
326
446
477
618
687
407
476
516
456
598
417
408
417
596
409
516
597 598
668
477
429
587
476
506
429
506 506
378
407
446
506 506
587
437
527
337
336
627
326
596
596
687
446
578
489
337
336
516
437
697
337
337
336
336
608
337
336
587
116
527
407
936
516 598
429
697
567
516
527
527116
936
697
578
936
527
578
578
619
318
699
319
116697
338
587 116
437
936
409
438
608
608
688
116
338
567
489
619
338
688
438
619
319
338
126
419
406
416
697
406
419
318
657
406
419
406
419
416416
936
416
608
567
338
457 318
319
458
318 319
647
688
688
126
438
657
567
567
858
699
686
699
438
536
858
318
419
406
416
319
458
457458 457
826
826
458
826
536
637
657
657
647
689
686
858
826
126
457
686
438
848
487
689
699
536
906
458
457
699
689
686
826
848
689
307
307
307
906906906
906
306
846
846
307307
846306
306 846846
898
898
898
898
899
899
899
899899
477
0
888
888
888
888
888
Number of H1B visas (in logs)
10
898
898
898
898
899
899
899
899899
0
Number of H1B visas (in logs)
15
2002
15
2001
.8
1
0
.2
Union membership rates (in logs)
lgh1b
.4
.8
477
1
Union membership rates (in logs)
Fitted values
lgh1b
Fitted values
15
2004
15
2003
0
.2
.4
.6
.8
898
898
898
898
10
5
426
477
1
0
Union membership rates (in logs)
lgh1b
888
888
888
899
899
888
899
899899
888
579
868
399
808
868
726
726
367
868
869
726
868
869
367
399
726
726
367
808
869
807
807
579
579
808
808
399
807
367
399869
808
459
399
579
807
367
869
716
807
716
579
357
459
716
357
387
459
357
459
459
716
716
736
736
859
467
859
879
467
669
736
879
357
859
467
357
467
736
669
879
467
879
879
859
806
836
836
246246
246
376 376
246 376 376
806
836
698
836
669
698
246
568
626
626
746
746
358
377
679
568
617
568
376
387
679
568
626
448
698
358
568
448
617
746
358
469
679
626
698
679
388
386
669
358
448
226
469
386
105
746
469
358
617
617
556
698
469
856
857
556
226
746
469
588556
679
448
916
617
105
386
857
377
377
105
448
386
388
379
386
669
105
379
377
857
916
857 609
586586
377 857
849
586
896
556 588
896
105
586588
379
226
616
609
856
849
856
379
588588
586 556
616
226
609
896
849
226
616
449
609
856
616
856
849
896
616
656
609379
636
636
636
449
816
418418
656
816
426
816
587
817
309
309
916
896
656
636
659
667
816
418
606
6
309
67
418
546
426
667
546
656
916
356
546
658659
659
347
659
658
606
607
916
656
347
426
606
607
418
546
478
816
658
526
636
478
236
356
546
607
606
646
667
526
466
526
348
466
309
658
607
817
646
607
236
606
348
309
817
236
817
308
668
817
696
526348
308
216
646
206
668
667
526
378
478
436
646
317
456 488
687
696
317
439
488
696
456
439
468
436
658
308
236
317
346
378
696
308
627
668
206
456
206
316
466
488
468
478
317
408
326
216
216
439
216
378
618
436
346
468
236
627
687
316
468
346
316
618
417
488
206
597
316
326
478
409
468
316 456
408
596
346
417
618
408
696
488
439
378
346
206
618
308
317
216
597
578
409
417
597
409
476
477
446408 516597
627
596
476
439
687
446
407
429
326
477
476
407
326
446
477
618
687
407
476
456
598
417
408
417
596
409
516
597 598
668
477
429
587
476
506
429
506 506
378
407
446
506 506
587
437
527
337
336
627
326
596
596
687
446
578
489
337
336
516
437
697
337
337
336
336
608
337
336
587
116
527
407
936
516 598
429
697
567
516
527
527116
936
697
578
936
527
578
578
619
318
699
319
116697
338
587 116
437
936
409
688
438
608
608
688
116
338
619
567
489
619
338
438
319
338
126
419
406
416
697
406
419
318
657
406
419
406
419
416416
936
416
608
567
338
457 318
319
458
318 319
647
688
688
126
438
657
567
567
858
699
686
699
438
536
858
318
406
416457458
319 457
458
826
826
458
826
536
637
657
657
647
689
686
858
826 419
126
457
686
438
848
487
689
699
536
906
458
457
699
689
686
826
848
689
307
307
307
906906906
906
306
846
846
307307
846306
306 846846
0
5
10
888
888
888
899
899
888
899
899899
888
579
868
399
808
868
726
726
367
868
869
726
868
869
367
399
726
726
367
808
869
807
807
579
579
808
808
399
807
367
399869
808
459
399
579
807
367
869
716
807
716
579
357
459
716
357
387
459
357
459
459
716
716
736
736
859
467
859
879
467
669
736
879
357
859
467
357
467
736
669
879
467
879
879
859
806
836
836
246246
246
376 376
246 376 376
806
836
698
836
669
698
246
568
626
626
746
746
358
377
679
568
617
568
376
387
679
568
626
448
698
358
568
448
617
746
358
469
679
626
698
679
388
386
669
358
448
226
469
386
105
746
469
358
617
617
556
698
469
856
857
556
226
746
469
588556
679
448
916
617
105
386
857
377
377
105
448
386
388
379
386
669
105
379
377
857
916
857 609
586586
377 857
849
586
896
556 588
896
105
586588
379
226
616
609
856
849
856
379
588588
586 556
616
226
609
896
849
226
616
449
609
856
616
856
849
896
616
656
609379
636
636
636
449
816
418418
656
816
426
816
587
817
309
309
916
896
656
636
659
667
816
418
606
6
309
67
418
546
426
667
546
656
916
356
546
658659
659
347
659
658
606
607
916
656
347
426
606
607
418
546
478
816
658
526
636
478
236
356
546
607
606
646
667
526
466
526
348
466
309
658
607
817
646
607
236
606
348
309
817
236
817
308
668
817
696
526348
308
216
646
206
668
667
526
378
478
436
646
317
456 488
687
696
317
439
488
696
456
439
468
436
658
308
236
317
346
378
696
308
627
668
206
456
206
316
466
488
468
478
317
408
326
216
216
439
216
378
618
436
346
468
236
627
687
316
468
346
316
618
417
488
206
597
316
326
478
409
468
316 456
408
596
346
417
618
408
696
488
439
378
346
206
618
308
317
216
597
578
409
417
597
409
476
477
446408 516597
627
596
476
439
687
446
407
429
326
477
476
407
326
446
477
618
687
407
476
456
598
417
408
417
596
409
516
597 598
668
477
429
587
476
506
429
506 506
378
407
446
506 506
587
437
527
337
336
627
326
596
596
687
446
578
489
337
336
516
437
697
337
337
336
336
608
337
336
587
116
527
407
936
516 598
429
697
567
516
527
527116
936
697
578
936
527
578
578
619
318
699
319
116697
338
587 116
437
936
409
688
438
608
608
688
116
338
619
567
489
619
338
438
319
338
126
419
406
416
697
406
419
318
657
406
419
406
419
416416
936
416
608
567
338
457 318
319
458
318 319
647
688
688
126
438
657
567
567
858
699
686
699
438
536
858
318
406
416457458
319 457
458
826
826
458
826
536
637
657
657
647
689
686
858
826 419
126
457
686
438
848
487
689
699
536
906
458
457
699
689
686
826
848
689
307
307
307
906906906
906
306
846
846
307307
846306
306 846846
Number of H1B visas (in logs)
898
898
898
898
0
Number of H1B visas (in logs)
.6
426
.2
.4
.6
.8
426
477
1
Union membership rates (in logs)
Fitted values
lgh1b
Fitted values
898
898
898
898
5
10
888
888
888
899
899
888
899
899899
888
579
399
868
808
868
726
726
367
868
869
726
868
869
367
399
726
726
367
808
869
807
807
579
579
808
808
399
807
367
399869
808
459
399
579
807
367
869
716
807
716
579
357
459
716
357
387
459
357
459
459
716
716
736
736
859
467
859
879
467
669
736
879
357
859
467
357
467
736
669
879
467
879
879
859
806
836
836
246246
246
376 376
246 376 376
806
836
698
836
669
698
246
568
626
626
746
746
358
377
679
568
617
568
376
387
679
568
626
448
698
358
568
448
617
746
358
469
679
626
698
679
388
386
669
358
448
226
469
386
105
746
469
358
617
617
556
698
469
856
857
556
226
746
469
588556
679
448
916
617
105
386
857
377
377
105
448
386
388
379
386
669
105
379
377
857
857 609
586586
377916
849
586
896
857
556 588
896
105
586588
379
226
616
609
856
849
856
379
588588
586 556
616
226
609
896
849
226
616
449
609
856
616
856
849
896
616
656
609379
636
636
636
449
816
418418
656
816
426
816
587
817
309
309
916
896
656
636
659
667
816
418
606
6
309
67
418
546
426
667
546
656
916
356
546
658659
659
347
659
658
606
607
916
656
347
426
606
607
418
546 216
478
816
658
526
636
478
236
356
546
607
606
646
667
526
466
526
348
466
309
658
607
817
646
607
236
606
348
309
817
236
817
308
668
817
696
526348
308
646
206
668
667
526
378
478
436
646
317
456 488
687
696
317
439
488
696
456
439
468
436
658
308
236
317
346
378
696
308
627
668
206
456
206
316
466
488
468
478
317
408
326
216
216
439
216
378
618
436
346
468
236
627
687
316
468
346
316
618
417
488
206
316
326
478
409
468
316 456
408
596
346
417
618
408
696
488
439
378
346
206
618
308
317
216
597
578
409
417
597
409
476
477
446408597516597
627
596
476
439
687
446
407
429
326
477
476
407
326
446
477
618
687
407
476
456
598
417
408
417
596
409
516
597
668
477
429
587
476
506
429
506 506
378
407
446
506 506
587
437567
527 337
337
336
627
326
596 578
596
687
598
446
578
489
337
336
516
437
697
337
336
336
608
337
336
587
116
527
407
936
516 598
429
697
516
527
527116
936
697
936
527
578
578
619
318
699
319
116697
338
587 116
437
936
409
688
438
608
608
688
489
116
338
567
619
338
438
319
338
126
419
406
416
619
697
406
419
318
657
406
419
406
419
416416
936
416
608
567
338
457 318
319
458
318 319
647
688
688
126
438
657
567
567
858
536
699
686
699
438
858
318
406
416457458
319 457
458
826
536
826
458
826
536
637
657
657
647
689
686
858
826 419
126
457
686
438
848
487
689
699
536
906
458
457
699
689
686
826
848
689
307
307
307
906906906
906
306
846
846
307307
846306
306 846846
0
Number of H1B visas (in logs)
15
2005
0
.2
.4
.6
Union membership rates (in logs)
lgh1b
Fitted values
.8
426
477
1
27
Table 3. Estimated Effect of Politics on Migration OLS
Dependent variable
OLS1
log (lobbying exp)
OLS2
OLS3
log (number of immigrants)
OLS4
OLS5
OLS6
OLS7
OLS8
OLS9
0.398*** 0.427*** 0.397*** 0.413*** 0.414*** 0.399*** 0.407*** 0.379*** 0.415*** 0.462***
[0.047]
[0.048]
[0.044]
[0.045]
[0.045]
[0.050]
[0.052]
[0.053]
[0.050]
[0.119]
union membership rate
-3.202*** -2.215***
[0.794]
[0.804]
lg (output)
-1.877**
[0.837]
-1.898** -2.103***
[0.797]
[0.799]
0.308*** 0.324*** 0.326***
[0.073]
[0.070]
[0.072]
unemployment rate
7.322
[4.672]
log (price)
-1.768**
[0.804]
-2.031**
[0.829]
-1.244* -3.261***
[0.730]
[1.112]
0.277** 0.302*** 0.321***
[0.112]
[0.112]
[0.106]
0.199*
[0.112]
0.073
[0.183]
7.361
[4.771]
6.676
[4.817]
6.519
[4.871]
3.516
[4.844]
-1.13
[4.812]
2.899
[6.924]
0.441
[2.598]
0.259
[2.560]
0.209
[2.500]
0.697
[2.359]
0.301 -7.799***
[2.204]
[2.459]
0.115
[0.157]
0.148
[0.158]
0.138
[0.142]
0.154
[0.132]
0.284
[0.228]
-0.096*
[0.055]
-0.094
[0.057]
-0.009
[0.059]
-0.069
[0.117]
5.073**
[1.986]
4.523**
[1.888]
4.045*
[2.320]
-9.353***
[3.141]
-7.506
[4.684]
log (capital)
log (FDI)
shocks
log (lag US wages)
log (lag Mexican wages)
_cons
N
OLS10
0.289*
[0.164]
6.636*** 6.769*** 3.329*** 2.562***
[0.450]
[0.453]
[0.900]
[0.918]
137
136
136
136
0.492
[12.304]
1.072
[12.145]
1.346
[11.881]
-1.701
[11.251]
136
132
130
130
17.782 49.079***
[12.425] [14.992]
28
130
53
Table A1. Estimated Effect of Politics on Migration, Pooled OLS
Dependent variable
OLS1
log (lobbying exp)
OLS2
OLS3
log (number of immigrants)
OLS4
OLS5
OLS6
OLS7
OLS8
OLS9
0.389*** 0.404*** 0.367*** 0.376*** 0.375*** 0.339*** 0.362*** 0.362*** 0.379*** 0.297***
[0.023]
[0.024]
[0.022]
[0.022]
[0.022]
[0.025]
[0.026]
[0.026]
[0.026]
[0.089]
union membership rate
-1.806*** -0.996***
[0.327]
[0.328]
lg (output)
-0.838**
[0.332]
-0.843**
[0.332]
-0.816**
[0.341]
-0.655*
[0.358]
-0.660*
[0.360]
-0.634* -2.698***
[0.364]
[0.633]
0.288*** 0.297*** 0.301*** 0.273*** 0.281*** 0.282*** 0.210***
[0.036]
[0.036]
[0.036]
[0.052]
[0.053]
[0.053]
[0.053]
unemployment rate
4.014**
[1.694]
log (price)
0.125
[0.139]
3.990**
[1.704]
3.706**
[1.732]
3.598**
[1.775]
3.576*
[1.821]
1.97 10.703**
[1.892]
[4.927]
0.561
[0.581]
0.391
[0.598]
0.395
[0.615]
0.393
[0.619]
0.314
[0.588]
0.205
[1.180]
0.092
[0.059]
0.128**
[0.062]
0.128**
[0.062]
0.152**
[0.060]
0.246
[0.153]
-0.080*** -0.081***
[0.030]
[0.030]
-0.036
[0.031]
0.008
[0.081]
log (capital)
log (FDI)
shocks
0.108
[1.113]
log (lag US wages)
-0.093 -4.229***
[1.106]
[1.369]
-4.892***
[1.351]
log (lag Mexican wages)
_cons
OLS10
-2.264
[2.509]
0.172**
[0.076]
6.628*** 6.716*** 3.639*** 3.219***
[0.286]
[0.298]
[0.455]
[0.463]
0.589
[2.765]
1.373
[2.866]
1.173
[2.945]
746
620
596
1.152 10.584***
[2.930]
[3.804]
6.355
[8.062]
29
N
760
746
746
746
596
589
105
Table A2. Estimated Effect of Politics on Migration OLS,
Balanced Number of Observations
Dependent variable
OLS1
log (lobbying exp)
OLS2
OLS3
log (number of immigrants)
OLS4
OLS5
OLS6
OLS7
OLS8
0.394*** 0.423*** 0.391*** 0.404*** 0.404*** 0.397*** 0.407*** 0.379*** 0.415***
[0.049]
[0.050]
[0.045]
[0.046]
[0.047]
[0.051]
[0.052]
[0.053]
[0.050]
union membership rate
-3.302***
[0.818]
lg (output)
-2.128**
[0.816]
-1.809**
[0.854]
-1.814**
[0.806]
-2.031**
[0.829]
-1.244*
[0.730]
0.281** 0.302*** 0.321***
[0.112]
[0.112]
[0.106]
0.199*
[0.112]
7.244
[4.772]
6.958
[4.852]
6.519
[4.871]
3.516
[4.844]
-1.13
[4.812]
0.078
[2.584]
0.213
[2.562]
0.209
[2.500]
0.697
[2.359]
0.301
[2.204]
0.116
[0.157]
0.148
[0.158]
0.138
[0.142]
0.154
[0.132]
-0.096*
[0.055]
-0.094
[0.057]
-0.009
[0.059]
5.073**
[1.986]
4.523**
[1.888]
0.332*** 0.346*** 0.346***
[0.072]
[0.070]
[0.072]
unemployment rate
7.238
[4.699]
log (price)
log (capital)
-2.019**
[0.805]
log (FDI)
-1.768**
[0.804]
shocks
log (lag US wages)
_cons
N
OLS9
-9.353***
[3.141]
6.654*** 6.791*** 3.070***
[0.464]
[0.461]
[0.885]
130
130
130
2.345**
[0.911]
1.978
[12.266]
1.22
[12.163]
1.346
[11.881]
-1.701
[11.251]
17.782
[12.425]
130
130
130
130
130
130
30
Table A3. Estimated Effect of Politics on Migration OLS,
Include Sectors with Zero Lobbying Expenditures
Dependent variable
OLS1
log (lobbying exp)
OLS10
0.289*** 0.292*** 0.267*** 0.272*** 0.273*** 0.287*** 0.286*** 0.257*** 0.285***
[0.055]
[0.059]
[0.056]
[0.058]
[0.058]
[0.058]
[0.060]
[0.061]
[0.063]
0.224**
[0.107]
-1.849*
[1.073]
lg (output)
OLS3
log (number of immigrants)
OLS4
OLS5
OLS6
OLS9
union membership rate
OLS2
-0.895
[1.016]
OLS8
-0.656
[1.016]
-1.956**
[0.823]
-1.757**
[0.828]
-2.033**
[0.856]
0.339*** 0.349*** 0.348***
[0.078]
[0.076]
[0.078]
0.204*
[0.114]
0.214*
[0.114]
0.232**
[0.110]
0.123
[0.117]
0.139
[0.205]
4.237
[5.217]
4.066
[5.225]
4.11
[5.311]
1.1
[5.231]
-2.946
[5.291]
0.7
[9.054]
-0.169
[2.833]
-0.114
[2.662]
-0.17
[2.636]
0.336
[2.499]
-0.086
[2.292]
-7.811**
[3.017]
0.25
[0.152]
0.269*
[0.155]
0.259*
[0.144]
0.278**
[0.136]
0.436*
[0.219]
-0.04
[0.061]
-0.038
[0.063]
0.039
[0.064]
-0.063
[0.111]
5.240**
[2.122]
4.638**
[2.053]
1.594
[2.125]
-8.314**
[3.336]
-4.625
[5.472]
unemployment rate
-0.664
[1.045]
OLS7
4.251
[5.142]
log (price)
log (capital)
log (FDI)
shocks
log (lag US wages)
-1.349* -4.383***
[0.773]
[1.399]
log (lag Mexican wages)
_cons
0.465**
[0.186]
7.759*** 7.980*** 4.133*** 3.710***
[0.535]
[0.546]
[0.967]
[1.047]
142
N
141
141
141
4.504
[13.421]
3.734
[12.634]
3.997
[12.516]
0.84
[11.911]
141
136
134
134
18.516 43.040**
[12.997] [18.857]
134
55
31
Table A4. Estimated Effect of Politics on Migration, 1998-2005
Dependent variable
log (number of immigrants)
1998
log (lobbying exp)
union membership rate
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
0.389***
[0.057]
0.658***
[0.068]
0.335***
[0.050]
0.576***
[0.085]
0.225***
[0.054]
0.572***
[0.084]
0.391***
[0.067]
0.532***
[0.060]
-1.522*
[0.821]
-1.582**
[0.737]
-2.724***
[0.847]
-1.184
[0.933]
-0.849
[1.168]
-0.914
[0.736]
-1.206
[1.002]
-2.904**
[1.223]
32
Table A5. Estimated Effect of Politics on Migration
Alternative Measure of Lobbying Expenditures
log (lobbying exp)
union membership rate
OLS
OLS_cont
0.367***
[0.047]
0.361***
[0.048]
-2.998***
[0.814]
-1.173
[0.754]
lg (output)
0.205*
[0.115]
unemployment rate
-1.064
[5.067]
log (price)
1.322
[2.319]
log (capital)
0.179
[0.135]
log (FDI)
-0.019
[0.061]
shocks
4.985**
[1.930]
log (lag US wages)
_cons
-9.043***
[3.156]
6.514***
[0.535]
11.881
[12.937]
136
130
33
N
Table 4. Estimated Effect of Politics on Migration, 1999-2004,
Campaign Contributions vs Lobbying Expenditures
Dependent variable
log (campaign contribution)
log (number of immigrants)
OLS
OLS_cont
0.230*
[0.131]
0.043
[0.146]
log (lobbying exp)
union membership rate
-1.365
[1.010]
-0.102
[1.125]
OLS
OLS_cont
OLS
OLS_cont
0.006
[0.174]
-0.092
[0.208]
0.322***
[0.047]
0.346***
[0.047]
0.321***
[0.050]
0.348***
[0.049]
-3.231***
[1.023]
-0.28
[0.975]
-3.168***
[1.086]
-0.286
[0.989]
lg (output)
0.209
[0.133]
0.279**
[0.127]
0.287**
[0.127]
unemployment rate
-3.207
[4.546]
-1.823
[3.852]
-1.499
[3.883]
log (price)
-0.266
[1.906]
-0.031
[1.632]
-0.178
[1.663]
log (capital)
0.254
[0.157]
0.129
[0.133]
0.128
[0.142]
log (FDI)
0.01
[0.086]
-0.059
[0.063]
-0.039
[0.068]
5.420**
[2.324]
4.062**
[1.845]
4.235**
[1.833]
-4.404
[3.554]
-8.713**
[3.484]
-8.650**
[3.513]
shocks
log (lag US wages)
_cons
N
7.827***
[2.004]
13.986
[12.140]
8.433***
[0.471]
19.107*
[10.703]
8.339***
[2.608]
20.772*
[12.464]
134
128
124
118
123
117
34
Table 5. Estimated Effect of Politics on Migration,
H1B Visas, 2001-2005
Dependent variable - ln(number of visas)
OLS
OLS_cont
log (lobbying exp)
0.458***
[0.057]
0.428***
[0.061]
union membership rate
-2.901**
[1.268]
-3.726**
[1.624]
lg (output)
0.141
[0.125]
unemployment rate
1.235
[4.025]
log (price)
-0.401
[3.080]
log (capital)
-0.052
[0.154]
log (FDI)
0.161*
[0.082]
shocks
-3.385
[2.493]
log (lag US wages)
7.203*
[3.667]
_cons
N
1.029*
[0.521]
-11.69
[15.859]
126
120
35
Table 6. Estimated Effect of Politics on Migration, 1998-2005,
New Immigrants
log (lobbying exp)
union membership rate
OLS
OLS_cont
0.383***
[0.043]
0.391***
[0.043]
-3.486***
[0.699]
-1.591**
[0.689]
lg (output)
0.234**
[0.103]
unemployment rate
3.377
[4.136]
log (price)
3.03
[2.207]
log (capital)
0.076
[0.116]
log (FDI)
-0.009
[0.058]
shocks
3.260*
[1.732]
log (lag US wages)
_cons
N
-7.676**
[3.035]
6.379***
[0.401]
1.839
[12.081]
136
130
36
Endogeneity & reverse causality concerns
• Direction of bias – lobbying exp
o Sectors with higher number of immigrants close to their
optimal level, less incentive to invest in lobbying.
o Sectors with higher number of immigrants need to lobby
more – to obtain access of immigrant workers and their
children to health, education, etc.
• Direction of bias – union membership
o Higher number of immigrants, increased threat to native
workers, raise incentive to join unions.
o Higher number of immigrants, reduced bargaining power of
unions, lower incentive to join unions
37
Instrumental variables strategy
• The IV for lobbying expenditures on immigration is:
the sum in a sector of the lobbying expenditures by
firms which do not list immigration as an issue in the
lobbying report:
o Plausible to assume that these are not directly
related to immigration policy (exclusion
restriction).
o Common
industry-level
variables
driving
lobbying expenditures on immigration and on any
38
other issue (strong instrument).
Instrumental variables strategy (contd)
• The IV for union membership rates is: union
membership rates in the UK:
o Evidence that union membership rates across
sectors are correlated across countries.
o Assumption – union membership rates in the UK
should not be directly related to immigration
policy in the US.
39
Table 7. Estimated Effect of Politics on Migration, 1998-2005,
Instrumental Variables
log (lobbying exp)
union membership rate
IV
IV_cont
0.527***
[0.057]
0.488***
[0.057]
-6.610***
[1.709]
-3.138*
[1.586]
lg (output)
0.115
[0.135]
unemployment rate
-1.694
[5.111]
log (price)
-1.48
[2.213]
log (capital)
0.249
[0.172]
log (FDI)
-0.014
[0.063]
shocks
4.271**
[2.031]
log (lag US wages)
_cons
First-stage F for lobbying exp
First-stage F for union membership
N
-9.079***
[3.214]
6.197***
[0.545]
25.287*
[13.053]
195.73
30.3271
119
153.52
14.85419
114
40
Does political organization have a greater impact on
immigration in skilled-sectors?
Table 8. Estimated Effect of Politics on Migration, 1998-2005,
Split Samples by Skill Intensity
Unskilled-intensive sectors
OLS
OLS_cont
Skilled-intensive sectors
OLS
OLS_cont
log (lobbying exp)
0.469***
[0.076]
0.354***
[0.078]
0.421***
[0.065]
0.396***
[0.072]
union membership rate
-2.661**
[1.064]
0.308
[1.158]
-3.915***
[1.225]
-3.088**
[1.199]
lg (output)
0.290*
[0.149]
0.098
[0.167]
unemployment rate
9.932
[6.928]
-9.610*
[5.331]
log (price)
5.004
[3.561]
-0.972
[2.931]
log (capital)
-0.032
[0.165]
0.323
[0.225]
log (FDI)
0.099
[0.093]
-0.075
[0.071]
shocks
5.197*
[2.955]
2.455
[2.802]
log (lag US wages)
-9.562*
[5.220]
-8.118**
[3.102]
_cons
N
6.463***
[0.665]
-4.286
[21.141]
6.785***
[0.639]
22.852
[14.640]
68
66
68
64
41
Conclusions
• Systematic empirical evidence on the political economy of
migration policy is scarce in the economics literature.
• To the best of our knowledge we are the first ones to empirically
investigate the role played by interest groups politics in shaping
migration policy.
• Main result - barriers to migration are higher in sectors where labor
unions are more important, and lower in those sectors in which business
lobbies are more active.
o Result robust to introducing various industry level controls and using an IV
strategy.
o Results on unions are stronger for skilled-intensive sectors, no statistically
significant difference in the effectiveness of lobbying expenditures.
42