The Outlook
for Energy:
A View to 2040
Glenn Waller
April 19, 2016
The Outlook for Energy includes Exxon Mobil Corporation’s internal estimates and forecasts of energy demand, supply, and trends
through 2040 based upon internal data and analyses as well as publicly available information from external sources including the
International Energy Agency. Work on the report was conducted throughout 2015. This presentation includes forward looking
statements. Actual future conditions and results (including energy demand, energy supply, the relative mix of energy across
sources, economic sectors and geographic regions, imports and exports of energy) could differ materially due to changes in
economic conditions, technology, the development of new supply sources, political events, demographic changes, and other
factors discussed herein and under the heading “Factors Affecting Future Results” in the Investors section of our website at
www.exxonmobil.com. This material is not to be used or reproduced without the permission of Exxon Mobil Corporation. All rights
reserved.
1
Global Trends Continue to Evolve
125%
Growth from 2014 Level
Percent
GDP
100%
75%
50%
25%
Demand
Population
Carbon Emissions
0%
2014
2040
2
ExxonMobil 2016 Outlook for Energy
Global Demand
2040 By Fuel
Quadrillion BTUs
250
Average Growth / Yr.
2014 - 2040
0.7%
200
2014
0.9%
1.6%
-0.2%
150
100
0.3%
2.9%
50
4.8%
1.3%
0
Oil
Gas
Coal
Biomass
Nuclear
Solar / Wind Hydro / Geo
/ Biofuels
3
ExxonMobil 2016 Outlook for Energy
Liquids Supply
World Supply by Type
Crude & Condensate Resource Estimates
MBDOE
Trillion Barrels
120
6
Biofuels
Other
Natural Gas Liquids
Tight Oil
80
Oil Sands
Deepwater
4
New Conventional
C&C Development
40
Conventional
Crude & Condensate
2
Developed Conventional
Crude & Condensate
0
2000
0
2020
2040
1981
2000
1990
2014
Source: USGS and IEA historical estimates
4
ExxonMobil 2016 Outlook for Energy
Liquids Trade Balance by Region
MBDOE
45
45
45
Other
45
45
45
45
Natural Gas Liquids
Tight Oil
Oil Sands
Deepwater
Conventional Crude & Condensate
30
30
30
15
15
0
‘10 ‘20 ‘30 ‘40
North
America
0
Latin
America
30
30
30
30
15
15
15
15
15
0
0
0
0
0
Demand
Africa
Europe
Russia/
Caspian
Middle
East
Asia
Pacific
5
ExxonMobil 2016 Outlook for Energy
Gas Trade Balance by Region
BCFD
180
Unconventional Production
Conventional Production
Demand
150
120
90
60
30
0
‘10 ‘20 ‘30 ‘40
North
America
0
0
Latin
America
0
0
Africa
Europe
0
0
Russia/
Caspian
Middle
East
Asia
Pacific
6
ExxonMobil 2016 Outlook for Energy
Gas Demand
By Region and Supply Type
BCFD
200
LNG Imports
Pipeline Imports
Local Unconventional Production
150
Local Conventional Production
‘40
‘25
100
‘10
50
0
North
America
Latin
America
Africa
Europe
Russia/
Caspian
Middle
East
Asia
Pacific
7
ExxonMobil 2016 Outlook for Energy
Energy Use Evolves Over Time
Demand by Fuel
Quadrillion BTUs
750
Other Renewables
Nuclear
Hydro
Gas
500
Oil
250
Coal
Biomass
0
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
8
ExxonMobil 2016 Outlook for Energy