Reduce, Improve, Replace
To meet the energy challenge
Ashok Sreenivas
Prayas (Energy Group), Pune
www.prayaspune.org/peg
Energy: The National Perspective and the Way Forward
August 23, 2013
Prayas - Energy Group
Electricity
Regulation
Energy
Efficiency
Rural
Energy
Energy
(Policy,
Planning &
Governance)
Renewable
Energy
Climate
Change
Coal,
Natural
Gas
Regulation
1
OVERVIEW OF INDIAN ENERGY
SECTOR
2
Energy Supply 2010
Primary Energy Supply for India (2009-10): 612.31 MTOE
Biomass
26%
Renewables
1%
Hydro
2%
Nuclear
0%
Coal
39%
Natural Gas
9%
Oil
23%
- Coal dominates, will continue to for near to medium future
- Significant bio-mass contribution – non commercial, mainly for cooking
-
Source: TEDDY 2012
3
Energy Use 2010
Final Energy Consumption of India (2009-10): 478.30 MTOE
Non-energy uses Agriculture
5%
5%
Commercial
1%
Other
energy
uses
6%
Industry
29%
Residential
42%
Transport
12%
- Residential important, Half of residential use is bio-mass for cooking (66%
homes)
-
Source: TEDDY 2012
4
Projected growth in energy demand
• Twelfth plan document
– Total demand for primary “commercial” energy
demand expected to go up from 710 mtoe in 2011-12
to 1220 mtoe 2021-22 (72% over 10 years)
– Power capacity expected to increase by 59% during
the 12th five year plan from ~200 GW to ~318 GW
• Key sectors
–
–
–
–
–
Electricity generation
Transport
Industry
Agriculture
Cooking
5
INDIA’S ENERGY CHALLENGE
6
India’s energy challenge
• Balancing the three
dimensions of the Challenge
– Huge Energy poverty
– Limited availability of
natural resources
– Ecological impacts of
conventional energy use
7
The two faces of India
8
Electricity and Development (2010)
Per-capita energy consumption (kgoe) v/s Human Development Indicator (HDI) - 2010
1
Norway
0.9
0.8
United Arab Emirates
Human Development Index (HDI)
United States of America
0.7
Russia
China
0.6
India
0.5
0.4
0.3
0.2
0.00
5000.00
10000.00
15000.00
20000.00
Per-capita energy consumption (kgoe per capita)
-
Small increase in energy consumption at India’s level correlates with high HDI change
Increase in cheap energy supply important for development
9
Limited access to clean energy
Source: Census 2011, NSSO 66th round, Prayas estimates
•
•
•
•
Approx. 1 USA (40 Cr) without access to electricity
Hours of supply in rural area often as low as 2 hours
Approx. 1 Africa (100 Cr) living on less than 100 kWh /household/month
Less than 30% use clean energy for cooking
10
Energy and infrastructure deficit and inequity
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
Houses without
concrete/brick walls
Houses without toilets Habitations without all- Villages without primary Villages without basic
weather roads
schools
health services
2001
2011
Half the households do not have pucca houses, toilets, basic health care
One-fourth villages have no proper road access, one-fifth no primary school
Source: Census, NSSO, PM Sadak Yojana, Prayas estimates
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Limited natural resources => high import costs


India’s energy imports as % of GDP much higher than many other countries & growing
Impacts




Increased cost of energy (harder to universalize access)
Increased vulnerability to geo-political changes
Trade deficit
Impact on GDP growth
12
Local environment, livelihoods



Respirable Suspended Particulate Matter and SPM beyond thresholds
Similar problems with water resources too – pollution as well as conflicts
Rising resistance to mining, power plants etc. because of environmental
damage, weak adherence to expected norms, weak government monitoring
13
Climate constraint
• India has limited role in global problem of climate change
– 15% of population but has emitted only 2.5% of GHG
emissions
– Very low per-capita emissions (~ 2 tons / capita / yr against
world average of ~4)
• But is very vulnerable
– Long coastline
– Very rainfall dependent
• Limited global C space remaining
– Energy conversion and consumption a major contributor
– ~64% in India in 2007
• Business-As-Usual not possible
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FRAMEWORKS FOR ENERGY
FUTURE
15
Frameworks for Energy future
Development  Growth  Energy  Environment
• Each of the above links is flexible
• Policies and structures required to increasingly
de-couple the links
– Improved developmental policies
– Higher Efficiency
– Minimising environmental impacts of energy
generation and use
16
Frameworks for Energy future
• RIR in Electricity
– Reduce energy use of the affluent, inequity
– Improve efficiency of energy use
– Replace, fossil fuels with renewable energy
• ASI in Transport
– Avoid travel - Better planning
– Shift to better modes – Mass transport, rail for freight,
cycle corridors, footpaths with lights
– Improve efficiency – Better fuel efficiency, reduced
pollution
• Low input Sustainable Agriculture, Housing, Clothing
• Preventive & Social Medicine for Health
17
RIR – Reduce consumption / inequity
• Reduce very high-end consumption
– Steeply telescopic tariffs at high-end
– Solar for ACs
• Reduce inequity
– Huge inequity in access to clean energy between
urban and rural, rich and poor
• 87% rural households use bio-mass/kerosene for cooking
against 34% urban
• 45% rural households have no electricity access against 7%
urban
– Comprehensive one time push for electricity access
• Infrastructure, connections, supply, management, promoting
economic activities
• To be seen as an economic investment
18
RIR – Improve efficiency of end use
Super efficient appliances consuming 40-50% less than the
5-star models, are commercially available in international
markets
 70% of the infrastructure by 2030 yet to be built – an opportunity
 Multi-state Super Efficient Appliances programs like fans
 Innovations to crack the agriculture puzzle
 Link energy tariff to consumption norm for commercial buildings
 Programs like PAT, discouraging inefficient new industry
19
RIR – Replace with renewables
• Renewable energy costs falling rapidly
– Solar PV tariffs of around Rs. 7 being quoted
– Wind tariffs around Rs. 5.5
• India resource rich
– Practically ‘unlimited’ potential in solar
– Huge wind potential (700 – 3000 GW)
• Challenges of grid integration, storage etc.
• Socio-environmental impacts to be assessed and addressed
early
– Land would be a major consideration
– Water requirements for CSP …
20
CURRENT TRENDS
21
Positive trends
• Many initiatives for efficiency, renewables
– Missions under NAPCC
– Low carbon committee
• Increasing momentum for many positive initiatives
– Renewables: Solar water heaters, lighting, other
applications
– Entrepreneur interest in grid interactive small
renewable systems
– Super efficient fan program and National Wind
Mission in 12th plan
• New technologies being considered: Shale gas, Coal
bed methane etc.
22
Positive trends …
Projected electricity consumption (Billion Units)
2500
Official forecasts show
2000
Increasing roles for
- Efficiency and
- Renewable
1500
1000
EE potential > Incremental
(renewable + nuclear + gas +
hydro)
500
0
IEP - Scenario 5 (2021-22)
Thermal
Hydro
Nuclear
Low Carbon Report (2020) - Aggressive
Efficiency
Renewables
Efficiency (savings)
23
Positive trends …
• Renewable Electricity investment of ₹ 20,000 Cr (2011-12) in
India, growing at 20% p.a
• Capacity growing at 35%/yr, generation 31% in the last decade
24
Not so positive trends
• Growth in ACs, Cars, Air travel
– Recent fall in car sales due to other factors than policy
push
25
Not so positive trends …
• Insufficient attention to ‘Reduce’
• Insufficient focus on universalizing clean energy access
– 75% decadal supply growth of electricity, 12% growth in
household access
• Governance challenges
– Weak capacity of institutions such as BEE, CEA, SNAs,
Regulatory institutions
– Weak enforcement of environmental norms
– Poor coordination across sectors/ministries, Central &
State levels
– Low informed participation by professionals in regulatory
oversight or policy framing
– Insufficient transparency and access to information in
many key sectors (e.g. coal, oil-gas)
26
Discussion
• Needs careful balancing of multiple
objectives such as development,
growth, natural resource management
and environment
• What is required
– Recognize and acknowledge the magnitude of the problem
– Evolve our own models to suit our needs
– A dedicated multi-sectoral institution (Energy Analysis
Office?) under the Planning Commission or the Prime
Minister’s Office
– Significantly greater transparency and capacity of
governance institutions and policy formulation
– Significantly better implementation of existing laws, norms
– Greater pro-active participation, involvement of nonGovernment ‘experts’?
27