ISTAT
Register entries/exits and
demographic flows: some comparisons
for statistical aggregates
Caterina Viviano
18th Roundtable
Beijing, China October 2004
Issue:
Verify differences in the production
of demographic statistics using registration and
deregistration instead of identifying the real births
and deaths by the harmonised methodology
Contents:
• BD methodology
• Indicators comparison:
• birth rate
• gross turnover
• net turnover
• Main outcomes
ISTAT
ISTAT
Eurostat BD project aims to harmonise
methodology to obtain comparable statistics
BD methodology is already operative in
participating EU countries
Developed internal procedures are costly and
complex
ISTAT
BD methodology -summary
Purpose: identify the real new enterprise births
and deaths
Id process for births:
step 0 - Population of active enterprises in year t: P(t)
• source of data: BR
• units: legal units
•active units: employment/turnover or other national
method
ISTAT
step 1 - The new enterprises (entries) in year t
• subset of Pop(t)
• need of Pop(t-1)
• need of Pop(t-2) for elimination of reactivations
E1 = new enterprises
= units not active in t-2  not active in t-1  active in t
E1 entries without reactivated units
ISTAT
step 2 - Other creations: events of structural changes
(merger, demerger, take-off, split-off)
• need of updating information through administrative
data and manual profiling activities
E2 = E1 - Eev
E2 entries without reactivated units and
without events
ISTAT
step 3 - Other creations: Links for continuity
(change of legal status, inheritance successions,
partnerships)
• Continuity rules: 3 id variables (name, location, sector)
•name & location
•name & sector
•sector & location
Tool: Record linkage process
E3 = E2 - Econt
ISTAT
E3 entries without reactivated units and
without events and
without creations for continuity
E3 identifies the real births
E1
352,000
E2
350,000
E3
295,000
*Nace sectors from C to K
Pop(2002)*
3,833,000
Problematic areas
1. Identification of active population - impact on E1• methodology to determine the status of activity
2. Identification of events -impact on E2 • monitor of large enterprise
• skilled staff
• updated administrative information.
3. Continuity rules: identification and assignment
• weakness of RL automatic procedures
• links with high risk of errors
• continuity concepts limitations
ISTAT
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Analysis of some demographic
indicators
Indicators calculated on the basis of the three
subset of data E1, E2 and E3
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BOX-plot 1:
Enterprise birth rates (%) for economic activity, year 2002
17.8
15.8
13.8
14.4
14.3
11.8
10.8
9.8
7.8
7.7
6.5
4.9
5.8
12.0
9.3
10.8
7.7
6.4
4.9
6.1
3.85.0
3.8
E1
Enterprise birth rate =
E2
E
j
%
Pop
E3
where j=1,2,3
ISTAT
BOX-plot 2:
Enterprise birth rates (%) for economic activity in terms of
persons employed
8.2
8.9
6.2
8.1
5.9
4.2
4.0
2.2
2.4
1.2
4.7
2.5
1.4
0.3
0.2
E1
Ent. birth rate (empl.) =
E2
EE j
Pop E
6.5
5.7
1.8
0.21.0
E3
% where j=1,2,3
ISTAT
Results - enterprise birth rate comparisons
Enterprise
Employment
•Variability: the same
From E1 to E2:
•shape: the same
• Variability: increases
•median: 25% less from
E1 to E3
• sectors highly
concentrated move from
Q3 to Q1
ISTAT
Average size
Total
Services
Trade
Construction
Industry
0,0
2,0
Pop
4,0
E1
Enterprise average size =
6,0
E2
EE j
E
8,0
10,0
E3
where j=1,2,3
E1
E2
E U
j
Ent. gross turnover rate = j
%
Pop
E3
where j=1,2,3
total
rentin g
c omputer
resea rc h
other bus in
ess
hotels
trans port
aux . Tran sp
ort
pos t, teleco
m.
fi nancial int.
aux . fin anc
.
real e state
energy
c onstruc tio
n
s ale,repair
wholesale tr
ade
retail trade
meta ls
mac hin ery
electric al e
q.
trans port e
q.
manu fact.o
thers
pape r
c oke
rubber
mineral
wood
mining
food
tex tile
le ather
ISTAT
Figure 2 - Enterprise gross turnover rate - year 2001
40,0
35,0
30,0
25,0
20,0
15,0
10,0
5,0
0,0
E1
gross turnover rate (empl.)=
EE j  U E j
PopE
E2
%
E3
where j=1,2,3
total
rentin g
c omputer
resea rc h
other bus in
ess
hotels
trans port
aux . Tran sp
ort
pos t, teleco
m.
fi nancial int.
aux . fin anc
.
real e state
retail trade
energy
c onstruc tio
n
s ale,repair
wholesale tr
ade
mineral
meta ls
mac hin ery
electric al e
q.
trans port e
q.
manu fact.o
thers
pape r
c oke
rubber
wood
mining
food
tex tile
le ather
ISTAT
Figure 3 - Employment gross turnover rate - year 2001
20,0
18,0
16,0
14,0
12,0
10,0
8,0
6,0
4,0
2,0
0,0
ISTAT
Ranking of economic sectors
Rank-order correlation index r-spearman
E1
E2
rent=0.92
rempl=0.81
E1
rent =0.96
rempl=0.81
E2
E1
E2
rent =0.96
rempl=0.98
Towards lower ranks
Towards upper ranks
(enterprise) hotels
(employment) research
(employment) coke,
transport equipment, energy
Gross turnover rate:
changes in employment
Reduction in level due to events
Transport
post&telecom
financial int.
Paper
coke
rubber
transport equ.
energy
Reduction in level due to
continuity
Hotels
retail trade
Reduction both in level and trend
due to events
ISTAT
Figure 4 - Enterprise net turnover rate - year 2001
3,0
2,5
2,0
1,5
1,0
0,5
0,0
-0,5
-1,0
-1,5
-2,0
Industry
Construction
E1
Trade
Services
E2
E U
j
j
%
Enterprise net turnover rate =
Pop
Total
E3
where j=1,2,3
ISTAT
Figure 5 - Employment net turnover rate - year 2001
6,0
4,0
2,0
0,0
-2,0
Industry
Construction
Trade
Services
Total
-4,0
-6,0
-8,0
-10,0
E1
Ent. net turnover rate (empl.) =
E2
EE j  U E j
PopE
E3
%
where j=1,2,3
Summary
ISTAT
BD methodology (continuity rules):
with reference to enterprises:
• impacts on levels of indicators
•does not produce significant changes in the economic activity
distribution
•produces significant changes in the net turnover rate
with reference to employment:
• impacts on levels of indicators, on the sectors’ distribution and
produces very significant changes in the net turnover rate due to
events
ISTAT
Conclusion
Results demonstrate the importance to concentrate
efforts in the identification of mergers and
demergers
the necessity of
•more updated information on events
•to increase the manual controls activities above
all in presence of a large birth or death.