Projections of non-CO2
greenhouse gases
A report on the non-CO2 projections to accompany the
November update
Report for DECC
Restricted Commercial
AEAT/ENV/R/3092. 05478/2008/CD7014/JW
ED05478024
Issue Number 1
Date 12/11/2010
Projections of non-CO2 greenhouse gases
Customer:
Contact:
DECC
John Watterson
AEA Technology plc
Gemini Building, Harwell, Didcot, OX11 0QR
t: 0870 190 6594
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e: [email protected]
AEA is a business name of AEA Technology plc
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Customer reference:
DECC (CESA)
Confidentiality, copyright & reproduction:
© Copyright AEA Technology plc
This report is the Copyright of DECC and has
been prepared by AEA Technology plc under
contract to DECC dated 02/11/2010. The
contents of this report may not be
reproduced in whole or in part, nor passed to
any organisation or person without the
specific prior written permission of DECC.
AEA Technology plc accepts no liability
whatsoever to any third party for any loss or
damage arising from any interpretation or
use of the information contained in this
report, or reliance on any views expressed
therein.
Authors:
John Watterson, Shoko Okamura, Joanna
MacCarthy, Nikki Brophy
Approved By:
J Watterson
Date:
12 November 2010
Signed:
AEA reference:
ID: AEAT/ENV/R/3092.
05478/2008/CD7014/JW
Ref: ED05478024 - Issue Number 1
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Projections of non-CO2 greenhouse gases
Executive summary
This report summarises the non-CO2 projections, issued on the 12th November, 2010.
The following categories and gases have been updated:
•
•
•
HFC and PFC projections.
Emissions from mining activities, including slight revision in emissions from closed
coal mines
Emissions from metal production (iron and steel sector)
Summary of projected emissions
1990
2008
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
104.39
48.72
48.08
46.00
44.49
42.82
41.26
N2O
65.10
33.92
33.96
34.46
33.99
34.03
33.98
HFCs
11.39
11.21
10.96
10.87
8.87
6.72
5.58
PFCs
1.40
0.21
0.18
0.20
0.21
0.24
0.24
SF6
1.03
0.71
0.71
0.66
0.67
0.68
0.68
Methane
The projections in the agriculture sector are consistent with those in the UEP40
projections report issued by AEA to DECC, although these data were modified by
DECC prior to release.
Acknowledgements
We are grateful for all the support of all the stakeholders who have helped generate the
current projections.
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Projections of non-CO2 greenhouse gases
Table of contents
1
Introduction ................................................................................................................ 1
1.1 Overview ............................................................................................................ 1
1.2 Scope of this report ............................................................................................ 1
1.3 Spreadsheet of tables of data accompanying this report .................................... 2
1.4 Links to energy projections and GHG inventories ............................................... 2
1.5 Geographical coverage and UK projections ....................................................... 2
1.6 Gases considered .............................................................................................. 2
1.7 This work in context ........................................................................................... 4
1.8 Quoted accuracy of emissions ........................................................................... 5
2
Projections methodology .......................................................................................... 6
2.1 Overview of method and database used ............................................................ 6
2.2 Summary of methods used to estimate emissions.............................................. 7
2.3 Base year and base line emissions - definitions ................................................. 8
2.4 Key data sources ............................................................................................... 8
2.5 QA/QC procedures............................................................................................. 9
2.6 Treatment of energy projections ......................................................................... 9
3
Projected emissions of methane (CH4) to 2030 .......................................................10
3.1 Methane emissions in context ...........................................................................10
3.2 Factors affecting the projected decrease in methane emissions........................10
3.3 Factors affecting the change in methane emissions projections with previous
estimates.....................................................................................................................10
4
Projected emissions of nitrous oxide (N2O) to 2030 ...............................................12
4.1 Nitrous oxide emissions in context ....................................................................12
4.2 Factors affecting the projected decrease in nitrous oxide emissions .................12
4.3 Factors affecting the change in nitrous oxide projections with previous estimates
12
5
Projected emissions of HFCs, PFCs and SF6 ..........................................................14
5.1 F-gas emissions in context ................................................................................14
5.2 Factors affecting the change in F-gas projections with previous estimates ........14
6
Summary of non-CO2 GHG projections ...................................................................17
7
Uncertainties .............................................................................................................18
7.1 Monte Carlo model ............................................................................................18
8
Acknowledgements...................................................................................................22
9
References .................................................................................................................23
Appendices
Appendix 1
Units and conversions and glossary
List of figures
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Projections of non-CO2 greenhouse gases
Figure 6.1
Figure 7.1
Summary of projected non-CO2 projections ..........................................................17
Uncertainty analysis for projections used in the November 2010 update ...............21
List of tables
Table 1.1 Geographical coverage, energy projections and GHG inventories used in the UK’s
sets of projections ........................................................................................................................ 3
Table 1.2 History of the development of the UK’s non-CO2 projections ..................................... 4
Table 2.1 Summary of methodologies used for projections ....................................................... 8
Table 3.1 Summary of methane emissions by National Communication category (Gg)............11
Table 3.2 Comparison of methane estimates from this work with the UEP40 report (Gg) ........11
Table 4.1 Summary of nitrous oxide emissions by National Communication category (Gg) .....13
Table 4.2 Comparison of nitrous oxide estimates from this work with the UEP40 report (Gg) ..13
Table 5.1 Summary of F-gas emissions by IPCC category (Gg CO2e) .....................................15
Table 5.2 Comparison of F-gas estimates from this work with the UEP40 report (Gg CO2e) ....16
Table 7.1 Time dependent uncertainty profiles for the uncertainty ranges, as 95% confidence
intervals: 18
Table 7.2 Uncertainties (%) assigned to National Communication category, according to GHG,
with commentaries ......................................................................................................................19
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Projections of non-CO2 greenhouse gases
Document revision history
Revision history
Issue
Draft
Version
Revision history
Reviewed internally
Draft
Issued to DECC
1
Issued to DECC
2
3
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List of Tables and Figures page numbers updated
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Projections of non-CO2 greenhouse gases
1
Introduction
1.1 Overview
1.1.1
Projections of greenhouse gases
The UK government has set targets for reductions in greenhouse gas emissions out to 2050.
Therefore a regularly updated set of projections is required as UK policy and understanding
of likely future emissions evolves. The UK is also required to submit projected emissions of
greenhouse gases biennially under the European Union Monitoring Mechanism, and
periodically in the form of National Communications to the UNFCCC. These reports are
used to monitor progress towards the UK’s and EU’s Kyoto Protocol emission reduction
targets.
Projected emissions of CO2 have not been made in this study and are not reported here. The
projections are estimated by DECC.
This report contains a summary of the methodology used and the assumptions made to
produce the estimated non-CO2 emissions.
The following sectors and gases have been updated:
•
•
•
HFC and PFC projections
Emissions from mining activities
Emissions from metal production (iron and steel sector)
The agriculture projections in this update are consistent with those issued in the last set of
AEA projections.
1.1.2
Non-CO2 greenhouse gas projections
DECC periodically updates its energy forecasts. These forecasts predict the level of fuel
consumption in future years and are used to estimate CO2 emissions. Small amounts of the
non-CO2 gases CH4 and N2O are released from the combustion of fuel also. These gases
are released in much larger quantities from a wide range of other sources such as agriculture
and some industrial processes.
This report of the projected non-CO2 emissions is consistent with the energy use in the
UEP40 energy update. At this set of projections were produced, the latest DECC energy
update was UEP41.
The report contains a detailed description of the methodology used to estimate the emission
of the non-CO2 gases from all sources, and the assumptions made to produce these
estimates. For a detailed report of the methodology used to generate the projections, please
refer to AEA (2010a).
This report provides estimates of emissions of the non-CO2 gases out to 2030.
1.2 Scope of this report
This report is designed to explain the methods used update the emissions of the non-CO2
gases issued by DECC in November 2010.
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1.3 Spreadsheet of tables of data accompanying this report
There are detailed tables of projections in a spreadsheet that accompanies this report; see
spreadsheet <Non-CO2_Projections_November2010_v1.xls >
1.4 Links to energy projections and GHG inventories
Table 1-1 sets out the energy projections and the GHG inventories used in this set of
projections. The energy projections are made by DECC.
1.5 Geographical coverage and UK projections
The reporting requirements for GHG inventory has meant that the non-CO2 projections work
now must be able to provide estimates of projections separately for the Crown Dependencies
and the Overseas Territories; Table 1-1.
The projections can incorporate data for the following components of the UK:
•
•
Crown Dependencies (CDs): Guernsey, Jersey, Isle of Man;
Overseas Territories (OTs) joining UK ratifications to date: Bermuda, Cayman Islands,
Falkland Islands, Montserrat and Gibraltar.
The projections of non-CO2 emissions in this report include the emissions from the CDs, but
exclude the emissions from the OTs. This coverage is consistent with the geographical
coverage of the UK energy projections.
1.6 Gases considered
This project has produced estimates of projections of the non-CO2 gases:
•
•
•
•
•
Methane (CH4);
Nitrous oxide (N2O);
Hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs);
Perfluorocarbons (PFCs); and,
Sulphur hexafluoride (SF6).
The official estimates of UK CO2 emissions are produced by DECC, and are not produced
under this programme of work.
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Table 1.1 Geographical coverage, energy projections and GHG inventories used in the UK’s sets of projections
Geographical coverage, energy projections and GHG inventories used in the UK’s GHG projections
Document
containing
projections
Date released
or submitted
DECC June
2010 energy
projection
update
June 2010
Geographical coverage
UEP used
UK
CD
OT



GHG inventory used
CO2 component
Non-CO2
component
CO2 component
Non-CO2
component
DECC June 2010
energy projection
update
DECC June 2010
energy projection
update
2008
2008
Notes
LCTP
UEP
CD
OT
Low Carbon transition Plan
Updated Energy Projection. Produced by DECC
Crown Dependency
Overseas Territory
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1.7 This work in context
This work programme has continued the development and evolution of the non-CO2
projections by DECC. Table 1-2 below summarises the developments to the projections
know to the authors since 1995.
Table 1.2 History of the development of the UK’s non-CO2 projections
Chronology of development of the non-CO2 projections
NC or
other Reference
report
Phase Notes
1
Initial estimates. Used for policy analysis. May have been used in
the UK’s First National Communication
1?
Unknown
(1995)
2
“Trends in national greenhouse gas emissions and sinks to 2000 and
beyond have been estimated in consultation with appropriate
government departments, industry sectors, research bodies and
other organisations.”
2
Cm 3558
(February 1997)
3
WS Atkins (2000)
3
4a
Revised set of projections made to 2020. Using UEP 21.
4
Entec (2006a)
4b
Extension of projections out to 2050. Using UEP 21.
-
Entec (2006b)
5
Much increased detail in the underlying projections to match the
projections to the level of detail which makes up the GHG inventory.
More sophisticated uncertainty analysis providing uncertainty
estimates on selected years and also on the trends. Spreadsheet
tool developed to allow flexible aggregation of projections in IPCC
and National Communication formats. Using UEP30. The original
plan was to use these emissions for the 5NC, but the emissions
generated from Phase 6 were used.
-
AEA (2008a)
Based on Phase 5, with updated projections of CH4 from landfill and
N2O from agriculture. Using UEP32 for combustion sources in the
agriculture sector. Based on the 2007 GHG inventory. Data set
specifically requested to help Defra policy team (Matthew Brown).
-
AEA (2009a)
Based on the 2006 Inventory and UEP37. Consistent with
projections used for the EUMM and 5NC submissions; different
geographical projections are used for the EUMM and 5NC. End user
emissions are calculated.
5
AEA (2009b)
Based on the 2007 Inventory and UEP37. Includes emissions from
all Crown Dependencies, but excludes Overseas Territories. The
CO2 emissions in the LCTP were based on UEP38. UEP38 was not
publically available until after the LCTP had been published and
hence was not used for the non-CO2 projections.
LCTP
AEA (2009c)
Based on the 2008 Inventory and UEP40. Includes emissions from
all Crown Dependencies, but excludes Overseas Territories.
June
2010
update
AEA (2010)
5a
6
7
8
9
Based on the 2008 Inventory and UEP40. Includes emissions from
all Crown Dependencies, but excludes Overseas Territories. Includes
updated HFC emissions from the HFC forecast update (AEA,
2010b); updated emissions from mining activities including minor
updates to the emissions from closed coal mines; updated emissions
from the iron and steel sector.
-
This work
Notes
NC
LCTP
UEP
National Communication that the projections appeared in June 2009
Low Carbon transition Plan, issued in July 2009
Updated Energy Projection
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1.7.1
Methane
The sources below, arranged in decreasing order of contribution to total emissions, account
for the majority of the total CH4 emissions in the UK. The top 3 sources (*) account for more
than 60% of the total CH4 emitted.
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
1.7.2
Landfill (*)
Agriculture livestock - other cattle enteric (*)
Gas leakage (*)
Agriculture livestock - dairy cattle enteric
Agriculture livestock - sheep enteric
Deep-mined coal
Agriculture livestock - dairy cattle wastes
Closed coal mines
Nitrous oxide
The sources below, arranged in decreasing order of contribution to total emissions, account
the majority of the total N2O emissions in the UK. The top 3 sources (*) account for
approximately 70% of the total N2O emitted.
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
Agricultural soils (*)
Nitric acid production (*)
Road transport - cars with catalysts - rural driving (*)
Road transport - cars with catalysts - urban driving
Sewage sludge decomposition
Adipic acid production
Agriculture livestock - manure solid storage and dry lot
Power stations
Industrial off-road mobile machinery
1.8 Quoted accuracy of emissions
In this report, values of emissions may be quoted at up to 3 decimal places purely for
convenience, to avoid the risk of rounding errors, and for convenience when taking ratios.
The number of decimal places used should not be taken as indicative of the accuracy of the
estimates. Ratios, totals and differences have been calculated from estimates held at full
precision, and so may be slightly different from the values that could be obtained using the
data presented at the precision quoted in this report.
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2
Projections methodology
This section only provides a summary of the approach taken. For the detailed approach,
please refer to AEA (2010).
2.1 Overview of method and database used
2.1.1
General approach to estimating emissions
Emissions in the historic greenhouse gas and air quality pollutant inventories are calculated
using a central database (the NAEI database), containing activity data (e.g. fuel use,
livestock numbers) and emission factors. In order to maintain consistency with the historic
inventory, projected emissions are calculated using a second database that links directly to
the NAEI database. This means that the base year for the projections is always linked to that
particular year in the most up to date historic inventory – this is important, since the historic
estimates can be recalculated each year to account for any new information that becomes
available, and this methodology allows these data to feed into the projections. This
integrated approach also allows the end user emissions 1 to be calculated efficiently; the
methodology for the end user emissions is complex and is not considered in this report.
Emissions will change in the future depending on variations in:
•
•
•
Activity data (AD), for example projected changes to the fuel mix used for power
generation.
Emission factors (EF), for example due to improvements to technology for the
abatement of emissions.
A combination of both factors.
The projection database deals with these changes in a number of ways. For changes to
projected activity in a sector, a projected activity driver is entered into the database. This
needs to be entered for a base year (for example, UEP37 is based on a 2006 starting point)
and for each projection year considered. The database then normalises the base year driver
to the actual base year activity from the historic database and then uses this data to calculate
the activity for future years. Fore example, the activity in 2010 would be calculated from:
Activity2010 = Driver2010 x (Activity Base Year /Driver Base Year)
Emission factors are entered directly into the database for future years, ensuring that they
are in the same units as the historic emission factors. If the future factor for a given source is
expected to be the same as the historic factor, it is unnecessary to enter a time series of
future factors. The database automatically selects the emission factor for the latest year, and
keeps this constant going forwards.
The projection database is also set up to accommodate different emissions scenarios. The
energy projections used for the baseline scenario here are based on the UEP37 Central
Central scenario (central fuel prices, central policy impact).
1
The purpose of the final user calculations is to allocate emissions from fuel and electricity producers to the energy users - this allows the
emission estimates for a consumer of energy to include the emissions from the production of the fuel or electricity they use.
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2.1.2
Projections scenarios and nomenclature
2.1.2.1 The central projection estimate
Central estimate projections take account of the relevant underlying physical, social and
economic factors including the effects of policies to which the UK is committed and are
quantifiable.
In terms of the UNFCC Guidelines for the Preparation of National Communications contained
in FCCC/CP/1999/7 the measures included in the central projection correspond to
implemented policies and measures and adopted policies and measures.
Implemented policies and measures are those for which one or more of the following applies:
(a) national legislation is in force; (b) one or more voluntary agreements have been
established; (c) financial resources have been allocated; (d) human resources have been
mobilized. These are sometimes referred to as “firm and funded” by DECC. Adopted
policies and measures are those for which an official government decision has been made
and there is a clear commitment to proceed with implementation. Planned policies and
measures are not included in the central projection; these are defined as options under
discussion and having a realistic chance of being adopted and implemented in future.
The emissions projections developed for this project are based on all currently implemented
and adopted policies and measures in accordance with the UNFCCC (2000) reporting
guidelines. These are termed ‘with measures’ emissions projections. They are distinct from
‘with additional measures’ projections that encompass planned policies and measures, and
distinct from ‘without measures’ projections that excludes all policies and measures
implemented, adopted or planned after the base year.
2.1.2.2 Scenarios
Activity data and emission factors may change in future years and the pattern of this change
varies depending on what assumptions are made. Different scenarios are needed to capture
these different assumptions; some variations in assumptions might only be applicable to
certain pollutants or sectors hence the need for a division of the overall emissions 'Projection
Case' into scenarios.
As part of the implementation of the projections system, developed mainly for the non-CO2
projections programme, AEA have developed a simple nomenclature:
•
•
•
•
Scenario
Scenario Group
used together)
Projection Case
choice
Driver
a defined set of conditions
scenarios that are for equivalent sectors (i.e. they are not to be
is the combination of chosen Scenarios to match a particular policy
the parameter used to project the activity into the future
This is a simple but powerful approach which allows the effects of policies to be rapidly
tested.
2.2 Summary of methods used to estimate emissions
Table 2-1 provides a summary of the methodologies used for developing the central
estimates of projected emissions.
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Table 2.1 Summary of methodologies used for projections
Summary of methods used to estimate projections
Sector
Method and current status of projections
Energy (fuel combustion)
Based on DECC June 2010 energy projection update
Manufacturing and construction
Based on DECC June 2010 energy projection update
Road - Based on projections of vehicle km travelled provided by DfT and
emissions factors for each of the ‘Euro’ standards comprising the vehicle
fleet.
Civil aviation – Based on DfT CO2 emissions as a proxy for fuel use.
Transport
Military aviation – assumed constant.
Civil navigation – DECC June 2010 energy projection update.
Military navigation – assumed constant.
Railways – DECC June 2010 energy projection update
Solid fuels (mining)
Based on information from DECC on forecast coal production in the UK
and discussions with DECC. Emissions from closed coal mines from
White Young Green study.
Natural gas distribution and transmission - Projected decrease in
emissions due to replacement of old cast iron gas pipelines. UKD data.
Oil and natural gas
Offshore oil and gas - Based on DECC projections of oil and gas
production from the Energy White Paper. Development of emission
factors through discussion with industry experts (Granherne oil and gas
consulting).
Mineral products
Stakeholder consultation.
Chemical industry
Based on knowledge of abatement techniques applied at relevant sites
and projected future abatement achievable.
Metal production
Assumed emissions from iron & steel blast furnace gas are driven by
DECC BFG use projections in UEP40; assume emissions from steel
production (electric arc) are driven by data supplied by Engineering and
Allied Industries (EAT).
Halocarbons and SF6
Halocarbons and SF6 taken from AEA 2008 F-gas update. Supplemented
with 2010 HFC forecasting update data (AEA, 2010a).
Agriculture
Using existing model of GHG emissions developed on behalf of Defra by
ADAS, IGER and SAC. Based on BAU III scenario. (ADAS, 2007)
Land Use Land Use Change and
Forestry
Using model of GHG emissions developed on behalf of Defra by CEH.
Dyson et. al. (2009).
Solid waste disposal on land
Using data from the MELMod model (Brown and Leech, 2008).
Wastewater handling
Projections to 2010 based on the Hobson model (Hobson, 1996).
Projections beyond 2010 based on population growth and changes to
sewage sludge disposal routes.
2.3 Base year and base line emissions - definitions
The energy projections used for the baseline scenario here are based on the DECC’s June
2010 energy projection update Central Central scenario (central fuel prices, central policy
impact). The 2008 estimates of GHG emissions are taken from the 2008 GHG inventory.
2.4 Key data sources
The list below summarises the main data sources used:
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•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
June 2010 energy projection update data from DECC (UEP40). DECC provided AEA
with a breakdown of their energy projections from the DECC June 2010 energy
projection update Central Central, Central High and Central Low scenarios (Oxley,
2010). This breakdown included plant by plant detail for power stations, projected fuel
use in various sectors, and projected activity drivers for various industry sectors.
Road transport projections from Dft (2004 for CH4; 2007 for N2O).
Aviation projections from Dft (2009).
Landfill projections from MelMOD (Brown and Leech, 2008).
DECC supplied data (energy use from UEP40, specifically for metal production, iron
and steel)
Population projections from GAD (2009).
Industry contacts – e.g. nitric and adipic manufacturers.
Closed coal mines – White Young Green study.
BREF notes – to determine BAT for certain industrial processes and therefore
determine likely future emission factors (EC, 2006).
Granherne – AEA has consulted with Granherne regarding projections in the offshore
oil and gas sector (Russell, 2008).
AEA F-gas projections updated in 2008 supplemented with data from the HFC
forecasting update (AEA, 2010a).
2.5 QA/QC procedures
There is a very wide range of data that are used in the projections. Data (activity data,
emission factors and calculated emissions) that are part of the core GHG inventory were
checked using a set of QC procedures developed over a number of years. These
procedures are documented in Chapter 1 of the UK’s latest National Inventory Report (NIR) –
specifically in Section 1.6 “QA/QC plan”. DECC have internal QC procedures to manage the
quality of their energy statistics.
Where we received data that were used in the projections from other data providers (UKD,
CEH, North Wyke Research etc.) we performed a series of checks on the data to try and
confirm that they are fit for purpose. These checks follow the procedures that we use for the
core inventory compilation – see the paragraph above – and involve steps such as time
series consistency checks, and order of magnitude checks. When we requested data to
support the projections, we queried the QC that the data providers use, but to some degree,
we needed to rely on the quality of the data supplied.
2.6 Treatment of energy projections
In the greenhouse gas inventory, total fuel use for each fuel type has to match the totals
reported in the Digest of Energy Statistics (DUKES). However, for some fuels, the sectoral
breakdown of fuel use calculated by the inventory team does not match the breakdown given
in DUKES, and therefore fuel is reallocated between the sectors. An example of this is the
rail sector, for which we are able to obtain gas oil fuel use data for different train types from
the train operators.
Where the energy data in the greenhouse gas inventory are taken directly from DUKES,
projected energy use taken directly from the June 2010 update has been used for future
years. For sectors where modified energy data are used in the historic inventory, projected
energy trends based on the UEP data are used, rather than the actual values. The
calculation used is explained in Section 2.1.
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3
Projected emissions of methane
(CH4) to 2030
3.1
Methane emissions in context
Emissions of methane contributed approximately 50% to total non-CO2 greenhouse gas
emissions in 2008 on a GWP weighted basis. Approximately 90% of total methane
emissions arise from a small number of sources in a few sectors (such as coal mines,
leakage from the gas distribution network, and livestock in the agriculture sector), and
emissions in most of these sources are projected to decrease from 2008 to 2030.
3.2
•
•
•
•
•
•
3.3
Factors affecting the projected decrease in methane
emissions
an expected decrease in the quantity of coal produced (solid fuels sector);
replacement of cast-iron pipes in the gas distribution system (oil and natural gas);
reduction in projected UK oil and gas production (oil and natural gas);
a projected reduction in the numbers of cows and sheep - the main contributors to
methane emissions from agriculture;
implementation of the Landfill Directive and Waste Strategy 2000 with associated gas
utilisation or flaring (solid waste disposal on land);
the impact of progressive uptake of more advanced Euro emission standards for petrol
cars (transport sector).
Factors affecting the change in methane emissions
projections with previous estimates
The main reasons for changes between the projections associated with this update and
those quoted in the June 2010 update are:
•
•
•
•
Updates from DECC to projections of deep-mined coal production from 2010 to 2030.
Updates from DECC to projections of opencast coal production: 2010 to 2030.
Slight change in estimates of projected emissions from closed coal mines. Minor
update in estimates of emissions.
Slight change in estimates of projected emissions from metal production (Iron & Steel
blast furnace gas use), based on updated to projected BFG use from the DECC energy
team).
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Table 3.1 Summary of methane emissions by National Communication category (Gg)
Summary of methane emissions
2008
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
Without LULUCF
2,318.51
2,288.49
2,189.74
2,117.54
2,038.37
1,964.05
With LULUCF
2,319.84
2,289.55
2,190.62
2,118.42
2,039.24
1,964.93
871.97
868.10
859.47
853.71
852.40
852.40
12.54
12.80
13.28
14.92
18.62
18.62
396.38
387.89
340.43
308.68
250.91
194.61
Industrial Process
5.95
4.85
5.64
6.33
7.20
7.20
Land Use Change
1.34
1.06
0.88
0.88
0.88
0.88
Public
0.98
0.98
0.93
0.73
0.73
0.73
24.05
19.39
14.60
11.71
12.57
12.57
6.48
5.94
4.89
4.74
4.82
4.83
1,000.16
988.54
950.49
916.73
891.12
873.09
Agriculture
Business
Energy Supply
Residential
Transport
Waste Management
Table 3.2 Comparison of methane estimates from this work with the UEP40 report
(Gg)
New estimates – UEP40 report estimates
2008
2010
2015
2020
2025
Without LULUCF
0.00
-12.04
-16.50
-19.25
-10.71
With LULUCF
0.00
-12.04
-16.50
-19.25
-10.71
Agriculture
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
Business
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
Energy Supply
0.00
-11.73
-16.16
-18.91
-10.37
Industrial Process
0.00
-0.31
-0.33
-0.34
-0.34
Land Use Change
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
Public
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
Residential
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
Transport
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
Waste Management
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
AEA in Confidence
Ref: AEA/ED05478024 /Issue Number 1
11
Projections of non-CO2 greenhouse gases
4
Projected emissions of nitrous
oxide (N2O) to 2030
4.1
Nitrous oxide emissions in context
N2O emissions are dominated by a small number of sources in a few sectors (nitric acid
manufacture, livestock in the agriculture sector, agricultural soils), which contribute over 90%
of total N2O emissions. The largest of these is agricultural soils, which accounted for
approximately 70% of total N2O emissions in 2008.
4.2
Factors affecting the projected decrease in nitrous
oxide emissions
Key factors influencing the projected decrease in nitrous oxide emissions from 2005 to 2030
include:
•
•
•
4.3
decline in emissions from the manufacture of nitric acid as we assume that new
manufacturing plant replacing end of life plant will achieve BAT for emissions control;
decline in emissions from road transport as modern catalyst technology limits emission
of N2O in comparison to earlier catalyst design, and more diesel vehicles enter the fleet;
reduced emissions from manure management due to decreased numbers of cattle and
sheep (agriculture).
Factors affecting the change in nitrous oxide
projections with previous estimates
The main reasons for changes between the projections associated with this update and
those quoted in the June 2010 update are:
•
Slight change in estimates of projected emissions from metal production (Iron & Steel
blast furnace gas use), based on updated to projected BFG use from the DECC energy
team).
AEA in Confidence
Ref: AEA/ED05478024 /Issue Number 1
12
Projections of non-CO2 greenhouse gases
Table 4.1 Summary of nitrous oxide emissions by National Communication category
(Gg)
Summary of nitrous oxide emissions
2008
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
Without LULUCF
109.42
109.55
111.16
109.64
109.76
109.61
With LULUCF
109.43
109.56
111.17
109.64
109.77
109.61
83.48
87.80
90.04
89.31
89.17
89.17
Business
3.76
3.97
4.28
4.44
4.70
4.70
Energy Supply
4.86
4.75
4.81
4.11
4.09
4.09
Industrial Process
7.95
3.35
2.12
1.50
1.21
0.92
Land Use Change
0.01
0.01
0.01
0.01
0.01
0.01
Public
0.04
0.05
0.05
0.04
0.04
0.04
Residential
0.42
0.36
0.28
0.23
0.24
0.24
Transport
4.75
5.05
5.21
5.50
5.67
5.68
Waste Management
4.16
4.22
4.37
4.51
4.65
4.77
Agriculture
Table 4.2 Comparison of nitrous oxide estimates from this work with the UEP40
report (Gg)
New estimates – UEP40 report estimates
2008
2010
2015
2020
2025
Without LULUCF
0.00
-0.01
-0.01
-0.01
-0.01
With LULUCF
0.00
-0.01
-0.01
-0.01
-0.01
Agriculture
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
Business
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
Energy Supply
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
Industrial Process
0.00
-0.01
-0.01
-0.01
-0.01
Land Use Change
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
Public
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
Residential
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
Transport
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
Waste Management
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
AEA in Confidence
Ref: AEA/ED05478024 /Issue Number 1
13
Projections of non-CO2 greenhouse gases
5
Projected emissions of HFCs, PFCs
and SF6
A study has been completed to update projected emissions of HFCs, PFCs and SF6. There
is a full report accompanying these projections (UK emissions of HFCs, PFCs and SF6 –
2008 update, AEA 2008). This is the basis for most of the F-gas projections used the
non-CO2 projections used in this report.
The projections in this time series have been supplemented with updated HFC projections
from the HFC forecasting report (AEA, 2010b).
5.1
F-gas emissions in context
The relative importance of the sources of each F-gas changes over time, in part reflecting the
implementation of environmental regulations, such as the F-gas regulations. Emissions of
HFCs, on a GWP basis, dominate total F-gas emissions now and in future years. For HFCs,
the largest source now and in the future is from their use in refrigeration and air conditioning
equipment. The emissions decline in future years as HFCs are replaced by new refrigerants
with lower GWPs. Leakage rates from refrigeration equipment is now much better controlled
than in the 1990s, and this has reduced fugitive emissions. Another important source of
HFCs is from their use in aerosols as propellants, and although their use is declining, some
products will require HFCs as a propellant as there is currently no suitable substitute.
The next most important F-gas, on a GWP basis, is SF6. SF6 has a very large GWP (23,900)
and hence small emissions on a mass basis give rise to large GWP weighted emissions.
Emissions from SF6 use as a cover gas in magnesium foundries are now smaller than in
previous years as manufacturers are using HFC134a as a substitute gas. The high
temperatures in the smelting process destroy HFC134a, but SF6 survives and is released to
atmosphere.
The emissions of PFCs are relatively small in comparison to the other two F-gases. Small
amounts are produced as by-product during the manufacture of aluminium, and during
halocarbon production.
5.2
Factors affecting the change in F-gas projections with
previous estimates
The main reasons for changes between the projections associated with this update and
those quoted in the June 2010 update are:
•
•
•
A review and update of the use of HFC use in the refrigeration and foams sectors
(HFC forecasting report), resulting in improved estimates of the use of HFC. Also
affects PFC emissions.
Updated inventory baseline to 2008 (affects magnesium and aerosols)
Closure of an HCFC manufacturing facility
AEA in Confidence
Ref: AEA/ED05478024 /Issue Number 1
14
Projections of non-CO2 greenhouse gases
Table 5.1 Summary of F-gas emissions by IPCC category (Gg CO2e)
F gas projections
Greenhouse
Sector
gas
HFCs
2008
2C4 Cover gas used in
magnesium foundries
2020
2025
2030
23.19
25.14
26.76
28.54
30.42
125.86
79.76
79.76
79.76
79.76
79.76
7,285.21
7,578.56
7,369.75
5,357.68
3,351.15
2,183.43
2F2 Foam Blowing
408.51
449.61
494.66
439.16
226.87
209.00
2F3 Fire Extinguishers
199.54
203.55
213.94
224.85
236.32
236.32
2F4 Aerosols
3,014.44
2,519.12
2,575.94
2,631.42
2,686.66
2,737.34
2F5 Solvents
82.67
107.25
107.25
107.25
107.25
107.25
2F9 One component foams
70.65
-
-
-
-
-
10,961.06 10,866.43
8,866.89
6,716.55
5,583.52
HFC Total
11,213.12
2C3 Aluminium Production
118.40
55.23
55.23
55.23
55.23
55.23
2E2 Halocarbon Production
2F1 Refrigeration and Air
Conditioning Equipment
11.67
54.56
54.56
54.56
54.56
54.56
2.71
2.46
1.19
0.16
-
-
0.33
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
75.86
68.54
85.38
104.61
126.97
126.97
208.96
180.79
196.36
214.56
236.77
236.77
88.32
148.47
140.05
143.26
144.94
144.94
0.39
0.64
0.64
0.64
0.64
0.64
622.80
559.25
523.96
521.20
535.81
535.81
711.51
708.36
664.64
665.11
681.39
681.39
11,850.21 11,727.44
9,746.55
7,634.70
6,501.68
2F3 Fire Extinguishers
2F5 Solvents
2F9 Other(semiconductors,
electrical, sporting goods)
PFC Total
SF6
2015
26.23
2E1 Halocarbon Production
2F1 Refrigeration and Air
Conditioning Equipment
PFCs
2010
2C4 Cover gas used in
magnesium foundries
2F1 Overseas Territories
2F9 Other(semiconductors,
electrical, sporting goods)
SF6 Total
Total
AEA in Confidence
12,133.59
Ref: AEA/ED05478024 /Issue Number 1
15
Projections of non-CO2 greenhouse gases
Table 5.2 Comparison of F-gas estimates from this work with the UEP40 report (Gg
CO2e)
F gas projections
Greenhouse
Sector
gas
HFCs
2008
2C4 Cover gas used in
magnesium foundries
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
0.00
20.87
22.83
24.47
26.25
28.12
2E1 Halocarbon Production
2F1 Refrigeration and Air
Conditioning Equipment
0.00
-94.13
-94.13
-94.13
-94.13
-94.13
0.00
2615.14
2955.46
1891.23
539.24
-628.48
2F2 Foam Blowing
0.00
-85.50
-169.29
-339.76
-654.76
-672.63
2F3 Fire Extinguishers
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
2F4 Aerosols
0.00
0.00
54.17
109.66
164.89
215.58
2F5 Solvents
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
2F9 One component foams
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
2456.39
2769.05
1591.47
-18.51
-1151.53
2C3 Aluminium Production
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
2E2 Halocarbon Production
2F1 Refrigeration and Air
Conditioning Equipment
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
2.46
1.19
0.16
0.00
0.00
2F3 Fire Extinguishers
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
2F5 Solvents
2F9 Other(semiconductors,
electrical, sporting goods)
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
2.46
1.19
0.16
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
SF6 Total
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
Total
0.00
2458.84
2770.24
1591.62
-18.51
-1151.53
HFC Total
PFCs
PFC Total
SF6
2C4 Cover gas used in
magnesium foundries
2F1 Overseas Territories
2F9 Other(semiconductors,
electrical, sporting goods)
AEA in Confidence
Ref: AEA/ED05478024 /Issue Number 1
16
Projections of non-CO2 greenhouse gases
6
Summary of non-CO2 GHG
projections
Figure 6.1 Summary of projected non-CO2 projections
100,000
90,000
80,000
Emission (kt CO2e)
70,000
60,000
SF6
50,000
PFCs
40,000
HFCs
N2O
30,000
CH4
20,000
10,000
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030
Year
AEA in Confidence
Ref: AEA/ED05478024 /Issue Number 1
17
Projections of non-CO2 greenhouse gases
7
Uncertainties
This chapter presents the uncertainty analysis associated with the projections used in the
LCTP. A simplified Monte Carlo model, run at the National Communication aggregation
level, was used to predict the uncertainties quantitatively. This analysis is supplemented by
a commentary on the uncertainties for sources, according to GHG, which have large
contributions to the total emissions for each GHG.
7.1
Monte Carlo model
A simple model has been set up to combine the uncertainty estimates for the projected
emissions. The model assumes that the latest inventory year is fixed (i.e. is not uncertain),
and the uncertainties in future years relate only to how different the inventory estimate is
likely to be to the projected estimate in that year, ignoring the uncertainty associated with the
inventory method. Uncertainty ranges have been allocated at aggregated NC categories for
each gas, and combined using a Monte Carlo simulation. The probability density functions
(PDFs) for the uncertainty ranges are assumed to be normally distributed, and the
uncertainty estimates for most sectors have been ascribed one of three uncertainty ranges:
•
Low uncertainty
•
Medium uncertainty
•
High uncertainty
The uncertainty has been assigned based on expert judgment, considering factors such as
how recent the last update to the projections for the sector is and how uncertain the
projections are likely to be in future years.
Three time dependent uncertainty profiles have been assigned to each of the three
uncertainty ranges. These profiles are based on the judgements of the sector experts.
Table 7.1 Time dependent uncertainty profiles for the uncertainty ranges, as 95%
confidence intervals:
Uncertainty range
Low
Medium
High
2010
5
10
10
2015
10
10
30
2020
15
30
40
2025
20
40
50
In the June 2010 update of energy projections supplied by DECC, the data included an
indication of the uncertainty range (for the energy demand estimates). This estimate was
used for sectors predominantly based on the UEP data. The numbers in the tables are
uncertainties (as percentages) calculated from the uncertainty analysis of the energy
projection data; the energy modelling output was provided with an upper 95% and lower 95%
measure of uncertainty.
The analysis extends to 2025.
Table 7-2 shows the uncertainties assigned to National Communication category, according
to GHG, with commentaries about the current level of uncertainty assigned. The cells
shaded (in blue) indicate where there has been a change to the assigned uncertainties from
those used in the LCTP. The final column indicates why the change was introduced.
AEA in Confidence
Ref: AEA/ED05478024 /Issue Number 1
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Projections of non-CO2 greenhouse gases
Table 7.2 Uncertainties (%) assigned to National Communication category, according to GHG, with commentaries
GHG
CH4
NC category
2010
2015
2020
2025
Comment
Agriculture
HIGH
HIGH
HIGH
HIGH
Projections for agriculture becoming increasingly out of date
(2004 baseline)
Business
10.94
11.81
12.80
12.80
Uncertainty estimates given for main UEP37 data - applied
across all sectors that are predominantly based on UEP data
(does not apply to energy supply). No updated uncertainty
supplied for UEP39, assume the same as UEP37
Energy Supply
LOW
LOW
LOW
LOW
Major sources (coal mines, natural gas leakage) based on
bespoke research. UEP projections for power stations
considered to have low uncertainty.
Industrial Process
HIGH
HIGH
HIGH
HIGH
Most sources assumed constant or based on UEP growth
factors. Uncertain.
Land Use Change
MEDIUM
MEDIUM
MEDIUM
MEDIUM
Current best estimates from CEH
12.80
Uncertainty estimates given for main UEP37 data - applied
across all sectors that are predominantly based on UEP data
(does not apply to energy supply). No updated uncertainty
supplied for UEP39, assume the same as UEP37
Public
10.94
11.81
12.80
Residential
10.94
11.81
12.80
12.80
Uncertainty estimates given for main UEP37 data - applied
across all sectors that are predominantly based on UEP data
(does not apply to energy supply). No updated uncertainty
supplied for UEP39, assume the same as UEP37
Transport
MEDIUM
MEDIUM
MEDIUM
MEDIUM
Out of date traffic forecasts used. Not too sensitive to changes
though.
Waste Management
High
High
High
High
Low uncertainty applied to methane waste - based on current
inventory methods, projected estimate is unlikely to change
Agriculture
HIGH
HIGH
HIGH
HIGH
Projections for agriculture becoming increasingly out of date
(2004 baseline)
Business
10.94
11.81
12.80
12.80
Uncertainty estimates given for main UEP37 data - applied
across all sectors that are predominantly based on UEP data
(does not apply to energy supply). No updated uncertainty
supplied for UEP39, assume the same as UEP37
Energy Supply
LOW
LOW
LOW
LOW
UEP projections for power stations etc considered to have low
uncertainty
Industrial Process
LOW
LOW
LOW
LOW
Updated estimates based on consultation with industry for
major sources
N2O
AEA in Confidence
Ref: AEA/ED05478024 /Issue Number 1
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Projections of non-CO2 greenhouse gases
GHG
HFCs
NC category
2010
2015
2020
2025
Comment
Land Use Change
MEDIUM
MEDIUM
MEDIUM
MEDIUM
Current best estimates from CEH
Public
10.94
11.81
12.80
12.80
Uncertainty estimates given for main UEP37 data - applied
across all sectors that are predominantly based on UEP data
(does not apply to energy supply). No updated uncertainty
supplied for UEP39, assume the same as UEP37
Residential
10.94
11.81
12.80
12.80
Uncertainty estimates given for main UEP37 data - applied
across all sectors that are predominantly based on UEP data
(does not apply to energy supply). No updated uncertainty
supplied for UEP39, assume the same as UEP37
Transport
LOW
LOW
LOW
LOW
Recently updated with new emission factors and traffic
forecasts
Waste Management
HIGH
HIGH
HIGH
HIGH
Future mix of sewage disposal routes not well known
Business
Medium
Medium
Medium
Medium
Recent updates of HFC projections included in this dataset
Industrial Process
Medium
Medium
Medium
Medium
Recent updates of HFC’ projections included in this dataset
Residential
Medium
Medium
Medium
Medium
Recent updates of HFC’ projections included in this dataset
Business
MEDIUM
MEDIUM
MEDIUM
MEDIUM
Medium uncertainty applied, as the update to the projections
was relatively recent
Industrial Process
MEDIUM
MEDIUM
MEDIUM
MEDIUM
Medium uncertainty applied, as the update to the projections
was relatively recent
Business
MEDIUM
MEDIUM
MEDIUM
MEDIUM
Medium uncertainty applied, as the update to the projections
was relatively recent
Industrial Process
MEDIUM
MEDIUM
MEDIUM
MEDIUM
Medium uncertainty applied, as the update to the projections
was relatively recent
PFCs
SF6
Note
See comments in the text about the numbers in the table and the level of uncertainty associated with the categories of Low, Medium and High.
AEA in Confidence
Ref: AEA/ED05478024 /Issue Number 1
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Projections of non-CO2 greenhouse gases
Figure 7.1 Uncertainty analysis for projections used in the November 2010 update
200,000
180,000
160,000
140,000
kt CO2 eq.
120,000
100,000
2.50%
Mean
97.50%
80,000
60,000
40,000
20,000
0
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
Year
AEA in Confidence
Ref: AEA/ED05478024 /Issue Number 1
21
Projections of non-CO2 greenhouse gases
8
Acknowledgements
A number of people have contributed to this work programme and we are grateful for their
help:
Helen Champion (DECC)
Kieran Ingram (DECC)
AEA in Confidence
Ref: AEA/ED05478024 /Issue Number 1
22
Projections of non-CO2 greenhouse gases
9
References
AEA (2010a). Projections of non-CO2 greenhouse gases. A report on the non-CO2
projections to accompany the June 2010 energy projection update. John Watterson, Joanna
Jackson, Shoko Okamura and Judith Bates. CD 5478/2008/6784/JW. AEAT/ENV/R/3010.
ED05478. AEA group, 329 Harwell, Didcot, Oxfordshire. OX11 0QJ, UK.
AEA (2010b). HFC consumption and emissions forecasting. Containing an update to the
June 2008 HFC projections. ED05478 015. AEAT/ENV/R/2927. Shoko Okamura (AEA),
Paul Ashford (Caleb), Joanna Jackson (AEA) and John Watterson (AEA).
AEA (2008a). Projections of non-CO2 greenhouse gases to 2050. 2008 update.
AEAT/ENV/R/2646. ED05478- Issue 3.1. January 2009. Lead authors: Joanna Jackson
(AEA), John Watterson (AEA), Mike Holland (EMRC). With contributions from: Judith Bates
(AEA), Glen Thistlethwaite (AEA), Jane Clarke (AEA), Rob Whiting (AEA), Jo Green (AEA),
Sarah Choudrie (AEA), Melanie Hobson (AEA), Anne Wagner (AEA), Steve Simmons (AEA),
Dave Wilson (DECC), Caleb Management Services Ltd., Cambridge Econometrics, Ecophys,
Granherne. AEA group, 329 Harwell, Didcot, Oxfordshire. OX11 0QJ, UK.
AEA (2008b). Annual Updating of Non-CO2 Greenhouse Gas Emissions for the UK.
Marginal Abatement Cost Curves for Non-CO2 Greenhouse Gases. ED05478. Issue
Number 2. December 2008. 05478/2006/CD5834/JW. AEAT/ENV/R/2694. Lead author:
Mike Holland (EMRC). With contributions from: Judith Bates, Joanna Jackson, John
Watterson. AEA group, 329 Harwell, Didcot, Oxfordshire. OX11 0QJ, UK.
AEA (2008c). UK emissions of HFCs, PFCs and SF6. 2008 update. Report to Defra.
Restricted Commercial. ED05478. 05478/2006/CD5988/JW. Issue 1. December 2008.
Lead authors: Joanna Jackson and John Watterson. With contributions from: Paul Ashford
(Caleb Management Services), Jo Green, Jane Knowles, Glen Thistlethwaite, Rob Whiting.
AEA (2009a). Projections of non-CO2 greenhouse gases to 2050. Update to agriculture and
waste projections. 05478/2007/CC6190/JJ. ED05478- Issue 1.0. April 2009. Joanna
Jackson (AEA), John Watterson (AEA). AEA group, 329 Harwell, Didcot, Oxfordshire. OX11
0QJ, UK.
AEA (2009b). Projections of non-CO2 emissions for the UK’s 5th National Communication to
the UNFCCC and the submission to the Commission under the European Union Monitoring
Mechanism (EUMM). No formal report to accompany these emissions.
AEA in Confidence
Ref: AEA/ED05478024 /Issue Number 1
23
Appendices
Appendix 1:
AEA
Units and conversions and glossary
 2010 AEA Technology plc
Appendix 1 Units and conversions and glossary
Contents
Units and conversions
Abbreviations for greenhouse gases and chemical compounds
Abbreviations, acronyms and definitions
AEA
 2010 AEA Technology plc
Units and conversions
Emissions of greenhouse gases presented in this report are given in Million tonnes (Mt) and
kilotonnes (kt). To convert between the units of emissions, use the conversion factors given
below.
Prefixes and multiplication factors
Multiplication factor
Abbreviation
15
1,000,000,000,000,000
1,000,000,000,000
1,000,000,000
1,000,000
1,000
100
10
0.1
0.01
0.001
0.000,001
1 kilotonne (kt)
1 Million tonne (Mt)
1 Gigagramme (Gg)
1 Teragramme (Tg)
=
=
103 tonnes
10
1012
109
106
103
102
101
10-1
10-2
10-3
10-6
=
1,000 tonnes
10 tonnes
=
1,000,000 tonnes
=
=
1 kt
1 Mt
6
Prefix
Symbol
peta
tera
giga
mega
kilo
hecto
deca
deci
centi
milli
micro
P
T
G
M
k
h
da
d
c
m
µ
Conversion of carbon emitted to carbon dioxide emitted
To covert emissions expressed in weight of carbon, to emissions in weight of carbon dioxide,
multiply by 44/12.
AEA
 2010 AEA Technology plc
Abbreviations for greenhouse gases and chemical compounds
Abbreviations
Type of greenhouse
gas
Formula or
abbreviation
Direct
Direct
Direct
CH4
CO2
N2O
Direct
Direct
Direct
HFCs
PFCs
SF6
Indirect
Indirect
Indirect
Indirect
CO
NMVOC
NOX
SO2
Name
Methane
Carbon dioxide
Nitrous oxide
Hydrofluorocarbons
Perfluorocarbons
Sulphur hexafluoride
Carbon monoxide
Non-methane volatile organic compound
Nitrogen oxides (reported as nitrogen dioxide)
Sulphur oxides (reported as sulphur dioxide)
HFCs, PFCs and SF6 are collectively known as the ‘F-gases’
AEA
 2010 AEA Technology plc
Abbreviations, acronyms and definitions
5th National Communication of the UK. Submitted to the UNFCCC
Association of Coal Methane Operators
formerly the Agricultural Development Advisory Service, which was
part of MAFF
AEA
AEA group
www.aeat.co.uk
Biennially
Every two years
CAA
Climate Change Agreement
CD
Crown Dependency
CEF
Carbon emission factor
CEH
Centre for Ecology and Hydrology
CHP
Combined Heat and Power
CRF
Common Reporting Format tables of emissions for submission to the
FCCC
DA
Devolved Administration (Northern Ireland, Scotland and Wales)
DECC
Department for Energy and Climate Change
Defra
Department for Environment Food and Rural Affairs
DUKES
Digest of United Kingdom Energy Statistics
www.dti.gov.uk/energy/statistics
EA
Environment Agency for England and Wales
EC
European Commission
EU ETS
European Union Emissions Trading Scheme
EU
European Union
EUMM
European Union Monitoring Mechanism
FCCC
Framework Convention on Climate Change
GAD
Government Actuary Department
GCV
Gross Calorific Value
GHG
Greenhouse gas
GHGI
Greenhouse gas inventory
GLs
Guidelines for the compilation of GHG inventories. Published by the
IPCC.
GPG
Good Practice Guidance for the compilation of GHG inventories.
Published by the IPCC.
GWP
Global Warming Potential
IPCC
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
kt
kilo tonne
LCTP
Low Carbon Transition Plan for the UK. Issued by DECC
MAC
Mobile air conditioning
MACC
Marginal Abatement Cost Curve
MDI
Metered Dose Inhaler
Monitoring Mechanism The Decision concerning a mechanism for monitoring Community
greenhouse gas emissions and for implementing the Kyoto Protocol
Montreal Protocol
The Montreal Protocol on Substances That Deplete the Ozone Layer
is an international treaty designed to protect the ozone layer by
5NC
ACMO
ADAS
AEA
 2010 AEA Technology plc
Mt
NAEI
NC
NCV
NIR
Non-CO2
OT
PDF
SSF
UEP
UK
UN
UNFCCC
US EPA
AEA
phasing out the production of a number of substances believed to be
responsible for ozone depletion. The treaty was opened for
signature on September 16, 1987 and entered into force on January
1, 1989.
Mega tonne
National Atmospheric Emissions Inventory
www.naei.org.uk
National Communication. Parties to the Convention (UN convention
on climate change) must submit national reports on implementation
of the Convention to the Conference of the Parties (COP).
Net Calorific Value
National Inventory Report
The direct greenhouse gases excluding CO2; methane, nitrous oxide
and the F-gases.
Overseas Territory
Probability Density Function
Solid Smokeless Fuel
Updated Energy Projection
United Kingdom
United Nations
United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change
US Environmental Protection Agency
 2010 AEA Technology plc
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