Timescale Mismatches
David J. Hardisty
Sauder School of Business
University of British Columbia
People
• Project with SESYNC
• Interdisciplinary group – mostly natural
scientists (forestry, fish & wildlife, etc)
• Alain Hastings, Lynn McGuire, Robyn
Wilson, many others
Overview
• Thought piece
• Ecological systems operate on longer and
shorter (!) timescales than humans
• Illustrated in 3 cases:
- Eutrophication of western Lake Erie
- Forest fires in western US
- Emerald ash borer and invasive species
• Identify comment points where different
types of mismatches arise
• Suggest (behavioral) solutions
Structural interactions
learning
Institutions
actions
actions
Ecosystems
Individuals
learning
Decision Framework
Objectives
Actions
System Response
Learning
Stakeholder
objectives
Human response
Problem Framing
& Governance
Structure
Institutional
objectives
Actions
(Policy)
Monitoring/
Learning
Ecological response
(single-loop learning)
(double-loop learning)
(triple-loop learning)
Typology of timescale mismatches
1
A
B
C
D
E
Obj
DM
Act
Learn
Human Response
Natural Response
2
3
4
5
Decision Maker
Human System Natural System
Obj
Act
Learn
Response
Response
A1
A2
A3
A4
A5
B2
B3
B4
B5
C3
C4
C5
D4
D5
E5
Western Lake Erie
Eutrophication
• Phosphorus is used for farming
• Runoff causes harmful algal blooms
• Algal blooms also exacerbated by warmer
temperatures and wetter weather
Mismatches
• Lag between policy actions (annual),
farmer actions (annual), and water quality
response (decadal to generational)
• Short term fluctuations in water quality due
to weather
• Annual economic goals, long term
protection of ecology and economy
Behavioral Solutions
• Decision analytic tools for policy makers
• Economic incentives for adoption of new technologies
• Choice bracketing: fertilizer application framed as multiannual choice
(comprehensive nutrient management planning)
• Display lake eutrophication as a running 3-year average
rather than annual (reduce peak-end)
• Focus on tracking behavioral drivers (phosphorus) rather
than consequence (eutrophication)
• Display current levels of eutrophication as losses with
respect to some healthy reference point
• Use social norms to provide immediate social benefit for
farmers to change behavior
• Other ideas?
Other cases
• Forest fires
• Invasive species
• Solutions?
• Journals?
Thank You!