Social trends and
dynamics of poverty and
social exclusion
ESDE conference
Brussels
06/02/2013
 1-in-4 people in the EU at risk
of poverty or exclusion
 27% of working age population
at risk of poverty for at least
one year in period 2006-2009
Main Topics
1) Recent social trends: extent and depth of
poverty and social exclusion
 multi-dimensional nature
 diverging impacts across Member States and
population groups
2) Dynamics/persistence of poverty and
deprivation
 What do we mean by dynamics of poverty?
 How can analysing it lead to a better understanding?
Recent social trends
Definition of poverty and social
exclusion
EU definition
"persons, families and groups of persons whose
resources (material, cultural and social) are so
limited as to exclude them from the minimum
acceptable way of life in the Member State in
which they live”
-> wide range of issues beyond income
poverty
Population living at-risk-of-poverty-orsocial exclusion covers:
•
At-risk-of-poverty: people with an equivalised disposable
income below the poverty threshold (set at 60 % of national
median disposable income (after social transfers))
•
Severe material deprivation: people whose living conditions
are severely constrained by a lack of resources (i.e. experience
at least 4 out of 9 key aspects of deprivation)
•
Living in HHs with very low work intensity: people aged
0-59 living in HHs where the adults worked < 20 % of their
total work potential during the past year (~ jobless HHs)
=> takes account of diversity of situations across EU
Poverty and social exclusion on the
rise in the EU
•
rise in no. of
people living
in VLWI HHs
(+ recently
AROP and
SMD)
•
1-in-4 at-riskof-poverty or
exclusion in
2011
Strong divergence across Member States
in trends post-2008
• Strong rises in
southern and
peripheral MS
• Little change in
northern and
central MS
• Declines in a few
(e.g. PL & RO)
• Disparity
increasing
Rise in very low work intensity
households in most MS…..
…often associated with rise in severe
material deprivation rate
BUT ↓ in some MS, reflecting improvement in living
standards
Impact of crisis not uniform across
population subgroups…
By age group
AROPE for:
• Youth and prime
working age
adults: ↑ ~2 pps
• Children: ↑ 0.8 pps
• 65+ grp: ↓ 3 pps
Developments in severity of poverty
Chart : Developments over 2008-2011 in the poverty gap and the risk of poverty across
EU Member States in 2011
Poverty gap
Changes 2008-2011 in
percentage points
AROP
• Up in most MS
Poverty Gap
• BG, LV & RO
BE
BG
CZ
DK
DE
EE
IE*
EL
ES
FR
IT*
CY*
LV
LT
LU
HU
MT
NL
AT
PL
PT
RO
SI
SK
FI
SE
UK*
• + EL, LT & ES
Source: Eurostat, EU-SILC. Note: changes in AROP and Poverty gap > 1 percentage point highlighted in grey.
*Figures for CY, IE, IT and UK are for 2010 instead of 2011. 2011 EU27 figure is Eurostat estimate.
 ~30% in BG,
LV, LT, RO, ES
Combining extent
and severity:
 Poverty esp of
concern in:
1.4
2.0
-1.3
3.4
-0.8
5.7
-2.5
1.4
7.2
2.3
1.5
1.5
3.1
3.0
-0.9
1.0
-2.7
0.6
3.7
0.8
0.0
-0.5
0.6
4.7
-2.2
0.5
0.4
RO
LV
ES
30
BG
LT
EL
EE
25
IT*
Poverty Gap
 more cases
signif. rises
than rate
0.6
1.0
0.8
1.2
0.6
-2.0
0.6
1.3
2.2
1.3
-0.5
0.1
-6.3
0.0
0.2
1.4
0.4
0.5
0.2
0.8
-0.5
-1.2
1.3
2.1
0.1
1.8
-1.6
2011
35
EU27
PT
SK
DE
DK
PL
UK*
20
SI
AT SE
HU
CZ
NL
15
BE
CY*
FR MT
LU
IE*
FI
10
5
10
15
20
AROP
25
30
Increasing Financial distress…
Share of lowest
quartile HHs
facing financial
difficulties
• ↑ over year to
mid-2012 in
most MS
• marked rise in
IT (~10 pps)
Longer-term
perspective
• much worse vs
pre-crisis in CY,
EL, IT and ES
Inability to face unexpected expenses
Dynamics of poverty
"the passage of time is intimately connected with the
nature of poverty that individual experience"
Pr. S. Jenkins
• What does it mean?
• What do we know?
• What can we do ?
Dynamics of poverty:
what are we talking about?
Static approach
Non
poor
Poor
Dynamic approach
Non
poor

time
Poor



time
Poverty and the passage of time
Never poor
Transient poor
Poverty line
Recurrent poor
Persistent poor
Time
Poor at
least once
17
Poverty experience is wide-spread
Whole
population
100
%
Poor at least
one year
27%
At risk of poverty
15%
Persistently poor
7%
EU 27, 2006-2009, EU-SILC, 18-64 population
National differences
% of the 18-64 population
Chart: Risk of poverty & persistence of poverty
At risk of poverty rate
20
Persistent risk of poverty
15
10
5
0
BE
FR
DK
UK
EE
PT
BG
19
"Looking at entries and exits separately
rather than at poverty itself" (Jenkins)
High turnover of
poverty
 framework favourable
Low entry & low exit rates
 framework favourable
does not exclude risks
of recurrence
Risk
of social polarisation
60%
Exit rate out of poverty
UK
AT
50%
risk of 'core bulk
permanently poor'
FR SK
CZ
CY
DK
SI
NL SE
LU
40%
30%
BE
FI
ES
IE
PL
HU
IT
PT
EE
RO
LT
BG
EL
LV
MT
High entry & low exit
rates
20%
 Risk of massive
poverty trap.
10%
0%
0%
3%
2006-2009, EU-SILC, 18-64 population
5%
Entry rate into poverty
8%
10%
Profiling of the working-age population
poor at least one year
UK
2006-2009, EU-SILC, 18-64 population
Which individuals are facing poverty?...
… and how long?
UK
CZ
2006-2009, EU-SILC, 18-64 population
IT
An illustration:
obstacles for women with children
Barriers to access the labour market
• Access to childcare
Unsufficient earnings
• Precarious employment
• Gender pay gap
Disincentive tax-benefit schemes
• Inactivity / low wage traps for second earner
• Impact of benefits
An illustration: obstacles for women with
children
2006-2009, EU-SILC, 18-64 population
Conclusion
• Poverty is rising and deepening
• In some Member States
• For some population subgroups
• Dynamic approach can help to
tackle it
• Understand the flows
• Profiling individuals and adress
their obstacles
Rising poverty and exclusion: Focusing on its dynamics
to better understand it
Thank you for
your attention
Ins & outs of poverty between 2007-2010
60%
Exit rate out of risk of poverty
ES
UK
FR
PT
UK
ES
40%
20%
-1%
FR
IT
IT
PT
FR
1%
3%
5%
7%
9%
Entry rate into risk of poverty
11%
13%
15%