Project Concept Document Country: Brazil Page 1 Energy Efficiency Project INTERNATIONAL BANK FOR RECONSTRUCTION AND DEVELOPMENT INTERNATIONAL DEVELOPMENT ASSOCIATION Latin America and the Caribbean Region Country Department I Project Concept Document BRAZIL ENERGY EFFICIENCY PROJECT Draft Final Country Director: Gobind Nankani Division Chief: Asif Faiz POC: EA Focal Area: Climate Change Sector: Energy PTI: Yes No Date: May 30, 1997 Task Manager: Luis M. Vaca-Soto Project ID: BR-PA-37048/BR-GE-6211 Lending Instruments: WB Investment Loan and GEF Grant Project Financing Data Loan Credit Guarantee Other GEF Grant For Loans/Credits/Others: Amount (US$m/SDRm): WB Loan US$80 m; GEF Grant US$20 m. Proposed Terms: Multicurrency To be defined Grace period (years): Standard Variable Years to maturity: Commitment fee: % Service charge: % Financing plan (US$m): To be defined Source Local IBRD 50 GEF Grant 15 ELETROBRAS and other participants in the project 80 Borrower: ELETROBRAS Guarantor: Government of Brazil (GOB) Responsible agency: ELETROBRAS 1 For Guarantees: Partial Credit Proposed coverage: Project sponsor: Nature of underlying financing: Terms of financing: Principal amount (US$m) Final maturity Amortization profile Financing available without guarantee: If yes, estimated cost or maturity: Estimated financing cost or maturity with guarantee: 1 Yes Single currency Fixed Foreign 30 5 20 LIBOR-based Total 80 20 100 Partial risk No ELETROBRAS is a mixed economy corporation and holding of electric utilities, operating under the jurisdiction of the Ministry of Mines and Energy, designated as the project implementing agency by the GOB Project Concept Document Country: Brazil Page 2 Energy Efficiency Project Block 1: Project Description 1. Project development and global objectives (see Annex 1 for key performance indicators): Project development objective is to improve efficiency in the supply and use of energy in Brazil, with a focus on electric energy. The key project concept is the creation a market-based energy efficiency industry by removing market barriers, enhancing institutional delivery mechanisms, and encouraging the development of Energy Service Companies (ESCOs). Global GEF objectives are to (i) remove market barriers to application, implementation, and dissemination of energy-efficient technologies, and (ii) reduce global warming through lessening GHG emissions that would be produced by thermal generation using hydrocarbons. (a) Main Barriers to Energy Efficiency in Brazil Falling barriers. The major historical barriers to Brazilian energy efficiency (EE) investments have been an unstable economy and subsidized energy (especially electricity) prices. The recent stabilization of the Brazilian economy has provided the essential foundation for cost reduction investments such as EE projects. The movement of energy prices toward cost based pricing and electricity tariffs reflecting peak and off-peak costs provides a growing incentive for EE investments. The GOB is now promoting the efficient use of energy, especially electricity, at a time of increasing risks of supply shortages. This factor, and the combination of a stable economy, rising energy prices, and a pro-energy efficiency set of Government policies provides the basis for pursuing overcoming remaining barriers to increase EE. Remaining Barriers. The decision to make an EE investment to reduce costs usually is based upon creditable information from relevant real projects in similar circumstances. Brazilian EE development suffers from both the lack of creditable case studies documenting the financial benefits of an investment and the means to disseminate such information to industrial and commercial decision makers. While many energy efficiency investments are being made in Brazil, the system to verify and disseminate the results has to be substantially enhanced and expanded. Brazilian customers purchasing energy using equipment do not know the annual energy cost of such equipment relative to the average of such equipment or the most efficient models available. While some energy efficiency testing, certification and labeling of electric equipment does exist, in many cases it has to be included in a comprehensive customer-focused dealer accepted program. In other cases, tariff level and/or structure and/or bill collection by distribution companies does not provide the proper price signal to customers to make energy investments. The energy efficiency industry, especially energy service companies (ESCOs), is very undeveloped in Brazil. ESCO development has been retarded by skeptical customers and third party financiers; inexperienced providers, customers or financial institutions in energy efficiency performance contracting; a lack of venture capital for ESCO development; no successful performance contracts to use as models for replication; no means to judge the quality of individual ESCOs; and the lack of incentives for utilities to use ESCOs. (b) Reduction and/or elimination of remaining barriers. Establishment of Best Practices Information and Dissemination Program. Pilot and Demonstration Projects. The GEF funds would provide assistance to PROCEL to more effectively overcome the information barriers to cost-effective energy measures, and to generally improve energy management information at the customer level. Specifically, the project would support: a) the effective dissemination of "best practices" derived from pilot and demonstration projects and programs, focusing particularly on the provision of financial information to business management, business financial planners, and the financial community in general; b) the enhancement of analytical capacity in existing state energy efficiency agencies to properly assess the environmental and financial benefits of EE projects; c) the assistance to the Government in developing effective policies, regulation and standards for promoting EE in an expanding market system; and d) the development of technical and operational guidelines for EE measures with wide applicability, using the result of case studies from EE projects. ESMAP is assisting local financial institutions and industrial trade associations in the State of Bahia to demonstrate monitoring and targeting techniques to manage effluents and improve energy use. Pilot projects based on monitoring and targeting to be developed in host industries will contribute to the best practice program. Enhancement of Testing, Certification and Labeling of Energy Efficiency of Equipment. Brazil has various efforts underway to test and certify the efficiency of various technologies. An enhanced comprehensive program, targeted at influencing customer choice, would support: (a) enhancement/establishment of testing, certification, and demonstration centers; and (b) development and implementation of "customer friendly" equipment labeling programs with participation of equipment dealers. Provision of proper price signal and service options. A series of demonstrations would be performed, including innovative demand charge and time-of-day tariffs; demand limiters; and improvements in bill collection. These programs are expected to improve commercial relationship, provide correct price signals, and stimulate the interest of customers in customer-based energy efficiency investments. Performance contracting. The proposed project supports marketing EE through ESCOs using performance contracting. Commercial and industrial customers will be made aware of the potential of performance contracting to finance EE investments from savings in operating costs. Financial institutions and engineering services companies will be made aware of how to create, operate and expand an ESCO business. This marketing activity will focus on the following groups: industrial customers via their state associations, public institutions via state energy officials, financial institutions via both their national and state associates, and engineering service companies via their state and national associations. To demonstrate the concept of EE through ESCOs using performance contracting, a series of demonstration projects will be designed, implemented, evaluated and the results widely disseminated. Three sectors are targeted for the initial demonstration projects: Project Concept Document Country: Brazil Page 3 Energy Efficiency Project commercial customers, large industrial customers; and public facilities, including offices, schools and hospitals. The demonstrations will be competitively chosen using selection criteria based upon likely project success, replication potential, and diversity of project mix. Creation of a Financial Facility to Stimulate ESCO Development and Use of Performance Contracting. An EE financial facility will be designed based upon a detailed review of feasible options provided by international experts. The proposed facility would be capitalized by funds from commercial and/or development banks. It would focus on encouraging the development of private sector third party financing of ESCO projects. The cost of designing the facility, as well as the incremental operational cost during the launching period are proposed to be supported by the GEF Grant. 2. Project Concept. Main concepts and features of the proposed project are indicated in in the following chart. Proposed Energy Efficiency Project Market Transformation Strategy Baseline Current level of EE activities, including incipient ESCO’s participation Delivery Mechanism National Coordinator and executor of special programs: PROCEL. Executing agents: Utilities, States, Municipalities Project Outputs Trained ESCOs Demonstrated energy savings on the supply and the demand side Best Practice Cases Market intermediaries: ESCOs, documented and marketed Enhanced Label, Standard, Banking System, Trade and Certification System Associations Financial facilities Incentive regulations Public awareness Incremental Energy/CO2 Savings: New EE Market Full ESCO’s participation Market barriers removed Improved level of services and EE activities Savings during Project Implementation Expanded Market-Based Savings (a) Project components. The main components of the proposed project, to be implemented in four years and a half, are: A. Pilot and demonstration (PD) EE projects providing proper price signals and service options. Implementation of PD projects in targeted electric energy markets to test and demonstrate innovative tariffs, load demand limiters, and improvements in bill collection through metering, improving service conditions and other commercial actions. B. Pilot and demonstration EE projects of emerging technologies. Implementation of PD projects to test and disseminate the use of more efficient appliances and energy equipment in the following markets: urban residential, poor urban and rural residential, commercial, institutional, industrial, and municipal. C. Market-based market transformation programs. Implementation of market transformation programs to prepare, and market best practice experiences and other EE measures, including a demonstration center of EE technologies and programs; implementation and initialization of an EE financial facility to finance ESCOs; and marketing the concept of performance contracts through ESCOs. D. Regulatory-based market transformation programs. (a) Implementation of market transformation programs for preparing standards and testing, labeling, and certification of efficiency of equipment and appliances, including motors, speed controls, refrigerators, freezers, and solar and heat pump water heaters; and (b) Preparation of incentive EE regulations. E. Capacity building (CB) programs. Implementation of institutional enhancement and training programs for the staff of PROCEL, energy agencies, utilities, trade allies, end users, ESCOs, and regulators; and provision of core support to PROCEL, Federal regulators and energy agencies and regulators of three States for design, management, supervision, monitoring, and evaluation of project components. Project Concept Document Country: Brazil Page 4 Energy Efficiency Project F. Others. Contingencies and financial costs during construction (b) Project Cost and Financing. Total project costs are estimated at US$200 million. A cost breakdown by component is presented below. A more detailed table is attached at the end of this brief (page 11) showing costs by detailed activities and financing requirements from each source. Component Category Indicative Costs (US$M) % of Total A. Pilot and demonstration EE projects providing proper price signals and service options Physical, institution building 54 27 B. Pilot and demonstration EE projects of emerging technologies Physical, institution building 103 52 C. Market-based market transformation programs Institution building 9 4 D. Regulatory-based market transformation programs Policy, institution building 4 2 E. Capacity building programs Institution building, project management 12 6 F. Contingencies and interest during construction Other 18 9 Total 200 100 (c) Incremental Cost. Incremental costs are estimated at US$20 million (see Annex 2). GEF funds would be allocated as follows: (1) US$9 million to support pilots and demonstration programs aimed to disseminate/demonstrate DSM programs involving the installation of emerging technologies in the Brazilian market. This includes compact fluorescent lamps, solar heaters, efficient refrigerators, power control systems, reflecting roofs, high efficiency motors, and street lighting. GEF funds would support transitory subsidies and learning activities, i.e., monitoring and evaluation and preparation of best practice manuals. Future sustainability would be based on the activity of market intermediaries, including ESCOs, and the dissemination and marketing activities of PROCEL. (2) US$4 million to support the implementation of market-based market transformation programs, consisting of (i) an information, dissemination, and marketing program, including the “Best Practice” programs, aimed to market the experiences learned during the implementation of pilot and demonstration projects; a “Green Lights” program, aimed primarily at commercial and public sector consumers; a public awareness campaign; and support to energy agencies in the areas of EE promotion and marketing; and (ii) the design and launching of an EE financial facility, consisting of a revolving loan and loan guarantee facility for ESCOs, to be funded by development and/or commercial banks. GEF funds would support the information, dissemination and marketing program, the design of the financial facility, and its incremental operational cost during the launching period. The facility would be operated by a commercial or development bank. (3) US$2 million to support the implementation of regulatory-based market transformation programs, including: (i) testing, certification, labeling, and standards of domestic appliances, lighting, motors, solar water heaters, etc.; and (ii) study and preparation of EE regulations, including tariff designs and building codes. GEF funds would support expanding and operating testing facilities over a four year period and study and preparation of regulations. Testing facilities will start to charge fees gradually to be able to operate independently after implementing the EE project; (4) US$5 million to support capacity building programs, including (i) core support to PROCEL, Federal and State Energy Agencies and Regulatory Bodies to assist in the design, implementation, and monitoring of EE policies, regulations and programs; (ii) training to power utilities on modern techniques to reduce supply-side electric power losses, integrated use of supply-side and demand side management measures, and other utility-based EE programs; (iii) training to ESCOs. GEF funds would support hiring EE consultants and part of the training program during 1998 to 2001, after this period, PROCEL expects to charge fees and enter into cooperative agreements with major training and industry organizations in Brazil to make this activity sustainable. 3. Benefits and target population: The proposed project, together with other complementary initiatives, is expected to contribute to provide energy services in a more efficient and sustainable way by reducing emissions and their environmental impacts, postponing large investments in supply facilities, improving the competitiveness of the electric sector, reducing cost to consumers, and enhancing economic conditions through the creation of jobs in ESCOs. Complementary initiatives being supported by international and national energy efficiency organizations and agencies, mainly in the area of technical assistance to PROCEL, utilities, energy agencies, and regulators will contribute to expand the benefits of the proposed projects. Target population, in the short term, is the population in the areas of the pilot and demonstration projects and the special programs. This includes poor urban and rural population. In the long term, the Brazilian population is to be benefit from the replication of energy efficiency measures. Replication of similar Project Concept Document Country: Brazil Page 5 Energy Efficiency Project programs in Brazil and other development countries could further expand project benefits. 4. Institutional and implementation arrangements: The recipient of the proposed GEF grant and Bank loan will be ELETROBRAS. ELETROBRAS-PROCEL will be in charge of the general coordination and implementation of the proposed project and the implementation of market transformation programs through a project management unit based in PROCEL. The project implementation unit will be supported by the technical and financial areas of ELETROBRAS. PD projects will be implemented by selected participants and would include public utilities, water utilities, states, municipalities, and industrial and commercial users with the participation of ESCOs. Bank and GEF resources would be transferred from ELETROBRAS to the executing agencies through subsidiary loans and grants. A first group of PD projects and executing agencies have been selected already. A second group of PD projects and implementing agencies will be selected based on criteria and procedures to be agreed with the Bank during project preparation. Given the innovative nature of this operation, close Bank supervision and monitoring during project implementation will be arranged. Block 2: Project Rationale 5. CAS objective(s) supported by the project: (CAS Report No. 14569-BR of June 6, 1995) CAS objective is to support the GOB’s strategy of balancing its environmental agenda with its economic development goals. In the energy sector these goals are to enhance competition, encourage private sector participation, support programs and technologies aimed at the efficient supply and use of energy, diversify fuel sources, and protect the environment. The implementation of the EE measures, to be demonstrated by the project, and their future replication with growing private sector participation (ESCOs) will support the GOB’s strategy. Project component A, which includes price signals and service options, would help to advance the power sector reform by improving the commercial relationship between distribution utilities and their customers. GEF Operational Strategy/Program Objective Addressed by the Project: The proposed project is fully consistent with GEF Operational Program No. 5 because its goal is to remove barriers to large scale application, implementation, and dissemination of least-economic cost energy-efficient technologies by promoting more efficient energy production and use. The GOB’s support of the EE Project is consistent with its strategy of improving efficiency of energy supply and use and enhancing private sector participation. Specific barriers targeted for removal through GEF cofinancing are insufficient information and perceived risks by potential investors on EE measures. GEF support would help to train and promote ESCOs, disseminate EE commercial instruments (verification protocols and performance contracting), create best practice information, and implement EE financial facilities to create the conditions for the development of an EE industry on a sustainable basis. 6. Main sector issues and Government strategy: Main sector issues are: (i) high investment needs to expand power supply in already served areas and to serve new areas inhabited by poor rural population; and (ii) the limited financial capacity of the sector under its current structure and federal and state ownership. GOB strategy to meet increasing energy needs in a sustainable manner is to reform the power sector through the introduction of increased competition and private participation; to reduce energy waste by supporting efficient supply and use of energy; and to support the development of new renewable technologies. To ensure sustainable and efficient energy supply, the GOB’s strategy is to improve efficiency of energy supply and use by establishing a new regulatory framework and a new institutional organization of the energy sector, therefore enhancing private participation, and promoting the development of new sustainable energy sources. To support sector reform, the Bank has assigned US$15 million from the Hydrocarbon Transport and Processing loan (LO 3376-BR). Overall, the reforms will provide greater choices for suppliers and consumers with enhanced participation of the private sector. By the end of the project implementation period, it is expected that the ongoing reforms and privatization plans will be completed. The proposed project components seek to balance supply geared generation policies and investments, with consumer oriented efficiency measures while creating a more competitive energy service market, thus providing a level playing field for ESCOs and load management measures in a liberalized power market. It is expected that the combination of a more liberalized power market and stable economy will provide the right conditions to introduce a new energy services market. To advance in the implementation of the Framework Convention on Climate Change, the GOB appointed an Inter-Ministerial Commission for Sustainable Development on June 21, 1994. At GOB’s request, the expanded use of solar and wind energy, now in pilot phase, is being studied with ESMAP/Bank support. Along the same lines, the GOB is supporting implementation of a Biomass Power Pilot Project, as an option to expand the sustainable use of biomass and expand available energy supply sources. On the energy efficiency front, the GOB is supporting the national program (PROCEL) to promote the efficient supply and use of electricity and reduce energy waste and asked for GEF/Bank support to implement the proposed EE Project. 7. Sector issues to be addressed by the project and strategic choices: Project Concept Document Country: Brazil Page 6 Energy Efficiency Project The proposed project aims to save electric energy on the supply and demand side, thereby contributing to the reduction of the rate of expansion of energy production and consumption; cost to customers; investment needs on electricity supply facilities; and negative impacts on the environment, e.g., reducing CO2 emissions. The ongoing reform of the Brazilian energy sector, supported by the Bank, is providing a favorable climate for the implementation of EE measures with its strategy of enhancing private participation, competition, and market-based prices and tariffs. Currently, no sector issues appear to adversely affect the economy of the project in the markets chosen for the PD projects and market transformation programs. During project preparation, the proposed implementation structure will be reviewed and any project-related conditionalities will be discussed. Because of the nature of the proposed project, sector-related conditionalities would not be included in the Bank/GEF loan/grant agreements. Sector reform issues are being discussed in the context of other energy projects and the technical assistance being provided through the existing Hydrocarbon Transport and Processing loan (LO 3376-BR) to reform the energy sector. 8. Project alternatives considered and reasons for rejection: To be defined The alternative to the project is to continue meeting energy needs only through the enlargement of the energy supply system. Investment needs in the power sector for this alternative are estimated at about $4 billion to $ 7 billion per year. Further, under expanding private privatization ownership, energy suppliers would focus on maximizing revenues by increasing kWh sales. The proposed EE project would balance supply and end-use options and support the Brazilian strategy to postpone a significant part of supply side investments through EE measures. An alternative to the proposed project that has been considered is the creation of a credit line to support EE investments in the industrial sector. This alternative has been discarded because similar initiatives in Brazil and the Bank were not successful due to lack of disbursements because they did not address the removal of existing market barriers. Instead, the proposed project focuses on the removal of these barriers. 9. Major related projects financed by the Bank and/or other development agencies (completed, ongoing and planned). Sector issue Project Latest Form 590 Ratings (Bank-financed projects only) IP DO Bank-financed Energy Sector Reform. Private participation. Brazil - Hydrocarbon Transport and Processing Project S S Sustainable energy supply. Energy Efficiency Thailand - Electricity Energy Efficiency Project (*) S S Energy Efficiency Jamaica - Demand Side Management Project (*) S S Energy Efficiency Mexico - High Efficiency Light Project (*) S S Energy Efficiency China - Energy Conservation (in preparation) (*) Sustainable Power Generation. Private participation. Brazil - Biomass Power Pilot Project (in preparation) (*) Electrification of Rural Areas with Private Participation. Brazil - Renewable Energy - Rural Electrification Project (in preparation) Industrial Energy Conservation Hungary - Industrial Energy Diversification and Conservation (PCR, 1993) Hungary - Second Industrial Energy and Conservation (PCR, 1994) Bangladesh - Industrial Energy Efficiency Project (PCR, 1992) Indonesia - Industrial Energy Conservation Project (PCR, 1994) Other development agencies UNDP/GEF Brazil - Phase II of the Biomass Power Pilot Project CIDA - ALURE Brazil - Cooperative agreements for technology transfer (*) Supported by GEF. 10. Lessons learned and reflected in proposed project design: No similar EE projects have been financed in Brazil. Lessons derived from the Project Completion Reports of other recent energy projects in Brazil, are: (i) the linkage of the effectiveness of loans and loan disbursements to the adoption of macroeconomic or sectoral measures, e.g., financial rehabilitation, was not effective in past operations in Brazil and undermined the credibility of the financial covenants. The current approach is to work in parallel, but separately, on macroeconomic/sectoral and project issues. To this end, the Bank is financing technical assistance activities for power sector restructuring; (ii) the electric tariff levels have been the main issue in the implementation of power sector projects in Brazil. Current tariffs, together with ongoing privatization and restructuring of the energy sector and the recent creation of a new independent regulatory body in the power sector, would provide an acceptable environment for the market transformation programs and PD projects; (iii) the standard disbursement profiles should be relied on in connection with the preparation of future distribution projects, and sales forecasts should be carefully scrutinized during appraisal; and (iv) there is a trade-off between good implementation by the stronger companies in the well developed regions and the greater needs on the part of the poorer companies in other regions. The proposed project includes the participation of leading utilities, energy agencies, Project Concept Document Country: Brazil Page 7 Energy Efficiency Project states, and municipalities in various geographical areas, including some of the poorest rural areas of the country. Lessons learned from ongoing Demand Side Management projects in Mexico, and Jamaica are that (a) pricing and regulatory reform are necessary, but not sufficient, to maximize and capture energy efficiency potential; and (b) key market barriers must be addressed in a sustainable way to expand EE investments. In the Thailand Electricity Energy Efficiency Project, key lessons learned are that (a) technical assistance targetted towards implementation of pilot demonstration programs is effective in building institutional capability, and (b) “learning by doing” through pilot programs is key to establishing a foundation for future expansion after the project implementation period. Lessons learned from the application of energy efficiency measures in Brazil and developed countries, e.g., USA, Canada, and the European Union, will be incorporated into the project design through the participation of experienced specialists under cooperative technical assistance agreements between PROCEL and development agencies. ESMAP and the Bank have supported the organization of international seminars and workshops in Brazil with the participation of local and foreign specialists, and technical visits to developed countries. These activities have contributed to the preparation of the national strategy and action plan for EE in Brazil, and the proposed project. 11. Indications of borrower commitment and ownership: The GOB and ELETROBRAS, as well as the other participants in the proposed project, support EE activities. ELETROBRAS-PROCEL and the other participants are active in EE activities and are participating in the project preparation. Current strain in the power supply system due to recent blackouts and brownouts, is putting additional pressure to accelerate the adoption of EE measures. SEAIN, the Secretary of International Affairs of the Ministry of Planning and GEF focal point, requested Bank support on September 15, 1996 (US$150 million), and GEF support on May 23, 1997 (US$20 million) (Annex 3). 12. Value added of Bank and GEF support: Bank and GEF support would be instrumental in (a) allowing the demonstration of a significant number of emerging energy efficient technologies and delivery mechanisms; (b) carrying out the energy market transformation, with a focus on electric power; and (c) building capacity on implementation and regulation of energy efficiency measures on the supply side and the demand sides. In addition, the proposed project will play a catalytic role in providing a framework for the organized participation of the main stakeholders in the energy efficiency effort in Brazil, in particular energy agencies, energy regulators, power utilities, ESCOs, consumers, and international energy and development agencies. Supervision, guidance, and support by the Bank in implementing this comprehensive program is critical to its success. Block 3: Project Preparation 13. Has a project preparation plan been agreed with the borrower? Yes Date: 11/30/96 No Date Expected: The project preparation plan has been agreed upon with the borrower. 14. Has borrower drafted a project implementation plan? Yes Date Submitted: MM/DD/YY No Date Expected: 09/15/97 Main project components have been agreed upon with ELETROBRAS and a preliminary project implementation plan has been received by the Bank. The final plan is being completed with the final selection of projects, programs, and participants and the refinement of implementation plans for all project components. 15. Advice/consultation outside country department Within the Bank: ENVGC; ESMAP; Other development agencies: USAID, CIDA, ALURE, Academia; NGOs The STAP reviewers’ comments are attached as Annex 4. 16. Issues Requiring Special Attention a. Economic (list issues below, e.g., fiscal impact, pricing distortions, etc.) Economic evaluation methodology: Cost benefit To be defined Cost effectiveness None Other [specify]: The costs of pilot and demonstration projects would include the incremental cost of monitoring, verification, and dissemination activities. A GEF grant is being proposed to support these incremental project costs. All proposed PD projects, net of these incremental costs, would have a rate of return above 15%. The incremental cost analysis and justification for the proposed GEF grant are attached as Annex 2. Project Concept Document Country: Brazil Page 8 Energy Efficiency Project b. Financial (list issues below, e.g., cost recovery, tariff policies, financial controls and accountability, etc.) To be defined None Full project cost recovery is not feasible due to the cost of the incremental features in PD projects and special programs. Preliminary calculations show that all pilot and demonstration projects has a positive net present value (NPV) based on their investment cost (excluding cost of incremental features) and the benefits derived from sales of electricity and the postponement of investment in supply facilities. From the perspective of the utilities, states, municipalities, and other participants, preliminary calculations show that the estimated NPV will be positive if the proposed GEF grant is accounted as a benefit. As financial results may vary, depending on the final implementation and financial arrangements between PROCEL, executing utilities and agencies, and end users, these estimations will be reviewed during project preparation. c. Technical (list issues below, e.g., appropriate technology, costing, etc.) To be defined None Potential technological risks have been assessed by PROCEL and fully discussed with international consultants. The cost of introducing technological innovations into the Brazilian markets is included as part of the incremental cost of PD projects and market transformation programs. The risk of failure of PE projects and special programs is being addressed by carefully designed implementation plans, including monitoring, verification, and dissemination activities. d. Institutional (list issues below, e.g., project management, M&E capacity, administrative regulations, etc.) To be defined None The proposed organization for national project implementation is ELETROBRAS-PROCEL, which would be in charge of implementing the market transformation programs and capacity building activities. PD projects would be implemented by selected participants, including utilities, states, and municipalities. It is considered that this arrangement is appropriate for the project and would provide an adequate balance of flexibility and accountability. The detailed project management and implementation structure will be reviewed and agreed upon during project preparation. e. Social (list issues below, e.g., gender, protection of indigenous and other vulnerable groups, etc.) To be defined None Due to the characteristic of the proposed project, no social issues are anticipated. Further, the project would have a positive social impact because will provide energy consumers, including low income consumers, with greater choices of efficient services and appliances in an era when electricity tariffs may tend to increase. In the case of low income consumers, lifeline tariffs will most likely remain in place. Consequently, the proposed project and its components would diversify the pool of options for consumers facing increase energy prices. f. Resettlement (list issues below, e.g., resettlement planning, compensation payments.) To be defined None No resettlement issues are anticipated. g. Environmental i. Environmental issues: Major: To be defined None Other: Brazil’s power sector has a comprehensive and operational Environmental Master Plan approved by the GOB, endorsed by the Bank, and enforced whenever a power supply facility is planned or constructed. No adverse environmental effects are expected to result from the project because it would involve modest interventions in the case of the PD projects when electric equipment will be enhanced, modified, or installed, e.g., modification of illumination systems in streets, industries, commerce, and homes. On the contrary, savings in power generation would reduce global warming by reducing CO2 production, since the Brazilian hydro-thermal system would reduce the use of hydrocarbons at the margin. This will happen because the economic dispatching of the generation system will reduce the production of electricity by thermal units due to their high marginal cost in the short term, compared with other generation options. ii. Environmental category: A B C (To be proposed) iii. Justification/Rationale for proposed category rating: The project would finance only small-scale PD projects, market transformation programs, and capacity building activities with no significant effect on the environment. Project Concept Document Country: Brazil iv. Status of Category A assessment:: NA Page 9 Energy Efficiency Project EA start-up date: Date of first EA draft: Current status: v. Proposed actions: N.A. vi. Status of any other environmental studies: NA vii. Local groups and NGOs consulted: (List names): Extensive consultations have been carried out at EE national seminars, workshops, and project preparation activities. Local groups and NGOs consulted include INEE (National Institute of Energy Efficiency), Academia (Universities of Sao Paulo, Rio de Janeiro and Campinas), trade associations (FIB, FIBA, FIESP), energy agencies (States of Bahia and Sao Paulo), ESCOs, and banks (BNDES, FINEP, and private banks). viii. Borrower permission to release EA: ix. Other remarks: h. Participatory Approach Beneficiaries/community groups Intermediary NGOs Academic institutions Yes No Preparation Implementation (CON) (CON) INEE (COL) INEE (COL) Universities of Rio de Janeiro, Sao Paulo, Universities of Rio de Janeiro, Sao Paulo, Campinas, etc. (CON) Campinas, etc. (CON) Local government Ministry of Mines and Energy of Brazil, Ministry of Mines and Energy of Brazil, Secretariats of Energy of States, State Energy Secretariats of Energy of States, State Energy Agencies (COL) Agencies (COL) Other donors CIDA, USAID (COL) CIDA, USAID (COL) Other Power Smart (Can), ALURE, EPRI, power Power Smart, ALURE, Commercial and utilities and EE specialist of developed countries. development banks (COL) Commercial and development banks (CON) [Note: Identify each of the stakeholders above, and describe their form of planned involvement as : information sharing (IS); consultation (CON); and collaboration (COL).] i. Sustainability The detailed implementation plans and incremental components of pilot and demonstration projects and special programs are designed to ensure their proper implementation, verification of savings, and documentation of best practices to be replicated. In the long-term, it is expected that the measures demonstrated through the best practice program, the increased activity of the ESCO industry, and the reduction of perceived risks by EE investors, would facilitate the replication of EE projects, ensuring the sustainability of the EE activities. Sensitivity analysis will be carried out during project preparation to verify this assumption under different scenarios of investment and operational costs, market penetration, and life of the proposed measures. j. Critical Risks (see fourth column of Annex 1): Risk Risk Rating Risk Minimization Measure Project outputs to development Continuity of PROCEL L GEF/Bank technical and financial support to objectives reinforce EE activities L Continued dissemination Continuity of PROCEL, State Energy Agencies, of EE projects and and ESCOs programs M Energy sector reform Bank technical support. Wide social and political Continued activity of PROCEL, energy agencies support to EE measures at and ESCOs. Educational programs. national and state level M Successful development of Marketing of commercial EE instruments ESCOs (verification protocols and performance contracts), dissemination of best practice experiences M Critical mass of EE Activity of ESCOs in the market activities Project Concept Document Country: Brazil Project components to outputs Page 10 Energy Efficiency Project Appropriate counterpart funding L Appropriate institutional arrangements and managerial and technical capacity Commitment of other participants and partners M Design of project components M Less than expected financial rate of return M Overall Risk Rating k. Possible Controversial Aspects Satisfactory financial arrangements among the participants as part of project preparation and implementation RGR resources for EE Creation of a project management unit. Implementation of capacity building components, including core support to PROCEL, agencies, and regulators Subsidiary Loan Agreements signed according to schedule to be agreed during project preparation. Stress in the electric system is pressing for EE measures. Current activity of participants, and variety of markets, technologies, and delivery mechanisms to be piloted and demonstrated contribute to reduce global risk. Participation of experienced national and international consultants under cooperative agreements with energy agencies and bilateral agencies Detailed review of financial estimations by international consultants L M No controversial aspects are foreseen at this time of project preparation. Block 4: Conditionality Framework 17. [Identify the critical policy and institutional reforms sought, and where appropriate, the likely areas of conditionality.] To be defined Policy and institutional reforms are being discussed under the frame of the current TA under Loan 3376-BR. It is expected that any conditionality would be project-related. Block 5: Checklist of Bank Policies 18. This project involves (check applicable items): Indigenous peoples Cultural property Significant environmental impacts Natural habitats Gender issues Involuntary resettlement Significant consultation Significant participation Riparian water rights Financial management Financing of recurrent costs Local cost sharing Cost-sharing above country three-year average Retroactive financing above normal limit Disputed territory Other 19. Describe issue(s) involved: No relevant issues have been identified yet . _____________________________ Task Manager: Luis M. Vaca-Soto LMVS L:\aa\EE\pcd May 30, 1997 ______________________________ Country Director: Gobind Nankani Project Concept Document Country: Brazil Page 11 Energy Efficiency Project Project Cost and Financing Total project cost, incremental cost, and financing requirements from each source. Main Components Markets Projects and Programs (1) GEF World Bank US$m Local Counterpart (2) US$m TOTAL 0 22 32 54 9 50 44 103 4 0 5 9 2 0 2 4 5 0 7 12 8 10 18 80 100 200 US$m A. Pilot and demonstration EE projects providing proper price signals and service options in: B. Pilot and demonstration EE projects of emerging technologies C. Market-based market transformation programs Residential Customers Poor Rural Customers Commercial and Institutional Customers Residential markets Poor rural markets Commercial and Institutional Customers (public buildings, hotels, hospitals, and schools) Industrial customers Municipal services Energy users Time-of-Use Yellow Tariff Demand Load Limiters Metering to support user-based EE investments Reduction of commercial losses in commercial markets D. Regulatory-based market transformation programs E. Capacity building programs Energy users Energy users Compact fluorescent lamps (2.5) Solar heaters (1.4) Efficient refrigerators (2.0) Efficient popular housing Efficient irrigation systems Air conditioning Control systems (0.4) Power factor improvement Reflecting roofs (0.5) High efficient motors, speed drivers, and motor optimization program (2.0) Street lighting (0.2) Water pumping Information dissemination and EE marketing , including Best Practice and Green Lights programs (3.5) Creation of an EE Financial Facility (to be funded by development and commercial banks) (0.5) Testing, certification, labeling, and standards (1.5) Incentive EE regulations (0.5) Core support for PROCEL and key Federal and State energy agencies and regulators (2.5) Training and education (technical schools, universities) (0.5) Management, evaluation, and information systems (2.0) F. Contingencies and financial costs during construction TOTAL (1) In parenthesis, GEF support in US$ million. (2) Local Counterpart includes CIDA (US$2 million) and EU-ALURE (US$1 million) 20 US$m Project Concept Document Country: Brazil Page 12 Energy Efficiency Project Annex 1 Energy Efficiency Project Project Design Summary Narrative Summary GOAL: CAS Objective Increase the efficiency of the electric energy sector to help balance Brazil’s environmental agenda with its economic development goals GEF Objective Reduce GHG Program Objectives: Remove barriers to the sustainable capture of “win-win” energy efficiency opportunities in the Brazilian energy market Key Performance Indicators Monitoring and Supervision Energy saved Investment postponement in power supply facilities Independent assessment Market studies PROCEL reports CO2 Avoided CO2 Savings Baseline Energy Consumption statistics per user group Listing of ESCOs Listing of financial institutions involved in EE projects Market barriers High transaction cost Lack of credible best practices Low financial significance Replications of EE programs/measures Number of active ESCOs Viability of ESCOs Viability of loss reduction measures Ex-post evaluation of EE market development Increased sales of efficient electric equipment and appliances ESCO industry development and wide use of verification protocol and performance contracts to replicate EE best practice projects (Development Objectives to CAS Objective) Percentage of average electric energy losses on the supply-side reduced from 15% in 1996 to 12 % in 2001 Adoption of efficient technologies: (a) Installation of 500,000 efficient street lamps by the end of 2001; (b) 100 public buildings retrofitted by 2001; (c) 5% increase in market share of efficient refrigerators, air conditioning systems, lamps, etc.; Electricity loss statistics 50 contracts signed by Electric Service Companies (ESCOs) with utilities and public, commercial, and industrial consumers Contract Supervision PROCEL reports Market studies Independent evaluations Market Transformation Programs Capacity Building Programs Best Practice Cases Reduction of energy supply investment and operational costs compared with the baseline Electric power and other energies priced at economic costs Adequate regulatory environment for EE measures (Outputs to Development Objectives) Project Outputs (the deliverables of the project) Pilot and Demonstration Projects Market-based replications of EE measures in other developing countries (Mission: environmental protection) ESCOs sales/contracts growth Project Development Objectives (effect or impact of the project) Reduced power supply commercial and technical losses Critical Assumptions and Risks (CAS and GEF Objectives to Bank/GEF Missions) 30% of PD projects and market transformation programs started by December 1998 30% of PD projects and market transformation programs completed by December 1999 10 Best Practice Cases Borrower’s quarterly progress reports, and final report on investments and performance of projects and programs Mid term review and final report by independent evaluators Continuity of PROCEL Continued dissemination of EEC best practices by PROCEL Energy sector reform Wide social and political support to EE measures at national and state level Project Concept Document Country: Brazil Revolving Fund for financing EE activities by power utilities and public sector implemented and operating Design and implementation of Financial Facility for EE activities by ESCOs New building codes for energy efficient buildings Infrastructure for dissemination activities Planning of Phase II Project Components (main activities that must be undertaken in order to accomplish the outputs) Investments in goods and services Consulting services for preparation of Best Practice projects, project management and supervision, developing internal procedures, and planning of Phase II Preparation of training program Page 13 Energy Efficiency Project Critical mass of EE activities completed and disseminated by December 1999, 20 by December 2000, and 30 by December 2001 Existing fund adapted and operating before project starting Financial Facility completed and implemented by December 1999 Codes designed and disseminated by December 2000 Infrastructure in place by December 1999 Planning completed by December 2000 Inputs (resources provided for project activities) By end 1999, 30% of Bank Loan and GEF Grant committed, and 20% disbursed By end 2000, 60% of Bank Loan and GEF Grant committed and 50% disbursed By end 2001, 90% of Bank Loan and GEF Grant committed and 80% disbursed Schedule for use of consulting services TBA (Components to Outputs) Borrower’s quarterly progress report Procurement records Bank’s disbursement data Audit reports Borrower’s annual financial statements Appropriate counterpart funding Appropriate institutional arrangements and managerial and technical capacity Commitment of other participants and partners Design of project components Less than expected financial rate of return Project Concept Document Country: Brazil Page 14 Energy Efficiency Project Annex 2 Incremental Cost Calculations 1. Broad Development Goals and the Baseline After many years of fluctuations, Brazil’s economy has stabilized and inflation rates have achieved single digit levels. Simultaneously, economic growth has resumed and energy use has increased. Electric energy use is growing at a rate of 6 %, per year. For the future, natural gas, coal, and hydro resources will meet that growing electric energy demand. To meet power demand while avoiding pollution related impacts, the Government of Brazil is following a three-prong approach: a) introducing wide power sector reforms, including pricing and regulations, to enhance competition and private sector participation; b) encouraging electric energy conservation measures through PROCEL, the Government sponsored energy conservation program; and c) encouraging the demonstration and deployment of renewable resources. Baseline case. In the absence of an alternative, Brazil’s energy efficiency efforts will probably remain in its current state or, given the current ongoing reforms in the sector, it may lose focus and its funding may start to decline as the deregulation of the energy sector advances. Under the baseline case, it would probably take longer to advance the demonstration of emerging technologies and market driven energy efficiency delivery mechanisms. Investments in energy efficiency would most likely remain in Government hands, through the use of subsidized loans to state governments and qualifying enterprises. Emerging technologies and their application would not be part of the mainstream as the industrial sector modernizes its infrastructure to compete in the MERCOSUR area and world-wide. Information dissemination on energy efficiency financing and practices would remain hampered if no structured demonstration of best practices and monitoring of savings is achieved. Institutional capacity to implement innovative energy efficiency measures would remain fragmented and, most likely, at a central level. Participation of private investors and Energy Service Companies (ESCOs) would be retarded if commercial instruments, like performance contracting, are not introduced in the EE market. PROCEL was launched in 1985, historically its level of activity has averaged investments in EE of US$4 million per year until 1994. The new focus on the role of energy efficiency to reduce energy waste, postpone supply side investments, the risk of energy shortages, and the support from multilateral and bilateral agencies is helping to increase the annual budget for EE activities. This has opened a window of opportunity to substantially enhance and expand current EE activities by reducing or eliminating remaining market barriers. However, this effort could be derailed in the absence of credible demonstration of market driven energy efficiency mechanisms that would mirror the market transformation of the economy and the sector. For these reasons, a conservative baseline option should have to consider the level of activity existing until 1994, before the new EE strategy started to be designed as an integrated approach expecting future support from the Bank, GEF, and other donors. However, to take into account the current budget for EE activities, including the proposed financial support from the Bank, the amount of US$177 million corresponding to the estimated cost of the proposed project is considered in the table included in para. 5 of this Annex, even though its sustainability could be questionable in the absence of GEF, Bank and other donors’ intervention. This baseline option include incipient activity of ESCOs and current investments in high efficiency lamps and appliances by private users, as well as the current level of local technical assistance and institutional support to energy efficiency activities, estimated at US$4 million, based on the operational budget of PROCEL and EE agencies. The alternative is defined as the baseline plus the participation of GEF and other donors in the proposed project, to support removal of existing barriers. Project Concept Document Country: Brazil Page 15 Energy Efficiency Project 2. Global Environmental Benefits The purpose of the proposed Energy Efficiency (EE) project is to achieve substantial and sustained increases in energy efficiency--and associated carbon dioxide emissions reductions--over time, by removing market barriers. Preliminary targeted savings by implementation of pilot and demonstration activities and market transformation and capacity building programs for an estimated period of ten years is estimated at 22 million tons (mt) of CO2 at a cost of US$ 1.05 per ton of CO2. If a period of seven years were considered, savings would be 13 mt of CO2 at a cost of US$ 1.77 per ton of CO2. As the activities proposed to be financed by GEF are an integral part of the EE project it is assumed that the cost to GEF would be, at least, on this range. These savings will be reviewed and confirmed during pre-appraisal and appraisal. 3. Alternative The proposed alternative will demonstrate the viability of delivering energy efficiency projects through traditional and alternative service providers, including electricity utilities, ESCOs, appliance retailers, manufacturers, and energy state agencies, using performance contracting, pricing and regulatory instruments, and new financing tools. Further, the project will introduce a country wide energy efficiency information system designed to provide plant and financial managers, and energy consumers with credible best practices for various technologies and contractual arrangements. Finally, the project will also focus on reinforcing regulatory and normative tools to catalyze energy efficiency projects. These activities are aimed at overcoming the major barriers to energy efficiency investments in Brazil. The alternative will demonstrate and market the concept of doing energy efficiency projects through ESCOs using performance contracting. A series of energy efficiency investments involving ESCOs, preferably through performance contracting, will be designed, implemented, and evaluated and the results widely disseminated. Three sectors are targeted for initial demonstration projects: commercial customers, large industrial customers; and public facilities including offices, schools, and hospitals. The demonstrations will be competitively chosen using selection criteria based upon likely project success, replication potential, capacity of implementing participant, and diversity of project mix. The incremental costs of demonstrating and marketing ESCOs are the costs associated with introducing the concept of performance contracting in Brazil and showing, in particular, that they are attractive to the private sector. To support ESCO’s development, a financial facility is proposed to be designed and launched, with the participation of development or commercial banks. While GEF and other donors will cover the incremental cost of pilot and demonstration projects and special programs, the Bank, PROCEL, and the other participants will finance the core cost of the projects and the replication of selected pilot and demonstration projects to be implemented in other areas or markets. The proposed project includes the establishment of a Best Practices information and dissemination program, that will disseminate energy efficiency solutions to enterprise managers, financial/banking managers, and energy consumers. The proposed program will: (a) prepare brief best practice guides summarizing energy efficiency projects, including the pilot and demonstration projects partially financed by the Bank; (b) prepare technical guides on emerging technologies to carry out energy efficiency measures; (c) establish a dissemination system including industrial trade allies and banking associations, as well as targeted training and workshops for PROCEL’s staff, contract consultants and host industries in the preparation, dissemination and monitoring of case studies; and (d) evaluate and monitor the program to assess its effectiveness. The normative/regulatory program includes setting standards, testing, and certificating the efficiency of emerging technologies. The GEF component would support: (a) the expansion of testing and certification centers; (b) the development of customer friendly equipment labeling programs; and (c) the initial implementation of the labeling program. The incremental costs associated with this component are: (a) training state regulators on energy efficiency related regulations; (b) expanding testing facilities; and (c) monitoring of implementation and effectiveness. 4. Scope Of The Analysis The analysis consists of the comparison between (i) the baseline cost of implementing EE projects without dissemination and capacity building components, and (ii) the cost of implementing these projects including the incremental features associated with the dissemination and capacity building programs included in the alternative. The scope is essentially the national electricity sector, including electric power suppliers, energy efficiency service providers, and consumers. Project Concept Document Country: Brazil Page 16 Energy Efficiency Project 5. Cost Total cost of the proposed project without the incremental features included in the Alternative, i.e., the market transformation and capacity building components is estimated at US$ 177 million. Total cost, including these incremental features is estimated at US$ 200 millions. Benefits of the proposed alternative are the emission savings resulting from project implementation and replication of EE measures expected to be caused by the market transformation and capacity building activities. In summary, benefits, costs, and increments of the proposed project compared with the baseline option are: Baseline Alternative Increment Current level of CO2 emissions Barriers reduced or eliminated Reduced CO2 emissions, as a result of the implementation of the EE project, and Increase in the number of viable EE measures able to be replicated in other developing counties Reduced or eliminated barriers Reduced CO2 emissions (22 million tons) Improved level of service in areas with bottlenecks, and Improvements in energy price signals and service options, EE technological level, information dissemination, EE regulations, and EE institutional capacity Improved level of services and 29.6 TWh saved EE barriers removed US$ million US$ million US$ million On going EE investments, plus: (*) (*) - A. Prices and service options B. Emerging technologies C. Marked- based programs D. Regulatory based programs E. Capacity building programs F. Others 54 92 4 2 7 18 54 103 9 4 12 18 11 5 2 5 - TOTAL 177 200 23 Global Environmental Benefit Domestic Benefit Costs Current level of electric services, and energy savings Current level of energy price signals and service options, EE technological level, information dissemination, EE regulations, and institutional capacity for EE Additional EE measures applicable to other developing countries (*) EE investments in the baseline option include counterpart funds of PROCEL and participating utilities and other partners mobilized by PROCEL, as well as current customer contribution to energy efficiency investments. US$ million CIDA/EC contributions GEF Incremental Costs US$ million US$ million 3 3 20 Project Concept Document Country: Brazil Page 17 Energy Efficiency Project 6. Final Calculation of Incremental Cost. Process of Agreement The incremental cost of the proposed project proposed to be financed by GEF amounts to US$20 million, based on information presented by ELETROBRAS-PROCEL and other participants. This cost will be reviewed by the Bank/GEF project team during project appraisal, based on the final basic project design that will be completed in June 1997, and the final cost estimates. The GEF grant would compensate for the incremental costs for the preparation and implementation of pilot and demonstration projects, and market transformation and capacity building programs aimed to expand and make sustainable the EE efforts in Brazil. Based in this criteria, incremental costs will be reviewed during project appraisal to define the amount of the GEF grant to be proposed and negotiated. Maria Nikolov M:\COUNCIL\JULY97\PCD-BRA.DOC July 3, 1997 4:12 PM
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