April 12, 2016
Gold stole the show in the first quarter
After some very hard years, sentiment about commodities
has been a little more positive since the start of 2016.
Capitalizing on investor concern at the start of the year
and the increasingly extreme monetary policies instituted
by several central banks, gold has done especially well,
shooting up more than 16% in the first three months of 2016,
the biggest quarterly increase in 30 years (graph 1). After
tumbling to a 12‑year low in mid‑February, oil prices have
also done well lately, even climbing back to about US$40
a barrel.
Graph 1 – You have to look back to 1986 to find a better quarter
for the price of gold
In %
However, we must not read the recent comeback of some
prices as a return of the crazy years seen at the start of the
millennium. The rise is not general and some commodity
price indexes even retreated in the first quarter (graph 2),
reflecting the sharp drop by natural gas prices among other
factors. Overall, commodity prices remain depressed and
the conditions do not yet seem to be in place for a sustained
rise, with global economic growth still too subdued at the
start of 2016. The major gains made by precious metal
prices and, to a lesser extent, oil prices largely reflect
financial factors that could quickly reverse, especially when
the Federal Reserve will start to signal that a second key
rate increase is imminent. Caution is thus in order in the
near term, although we still expect resource prices to come
up gradually over the medium term.
In %
Quarterly change in the price of gold
30
30
25
25
20
20
15
15
10
10
5
5
0
0
-5
-5
-10
-10
-15
-15
-20
-20
-25
1980
1983 1986
1989 1992
1995
1998 2001
2004 2007
2010 2013
-25
2016
Sources: Datastream and Desjardins, Economic Studies
Graph 2 – Commodity price indexes are still depressed
Index
Index
500
240
Bloomberg Commodity Index (left)
Reuters/Jefferies CRB* (right)
220
420
200
380
180
340
160
140
300
120
260
100
220
80
180
140
60
2005
François Dupuis
Vice-President and Chief Economist
460
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
* Commodity Research Bureau.
Sources: Datastream and Desjardins, Economic Studies
Mathieu D’Anjou, CFA
Senior Economist
Contents
Energy................................................................................2
Base metals.......................................................................4
Precious metals.................................................................6
Other commodities.............................................................7
Tables.................................................................................8
François Dupuis
Vice-President and Chief Economist
Mathieu D’Anjou
Senior Economist
Jimmy Jean
Senior Economist 514-281-2336 or 1 866 866-7000, ext. 2336
E-mail: [email protected]
Hendrix Vachon
Senior Economist
Note to readers: The letters k, M and B are used in texts and tables to refer to thousands, millions and billions respectively.
Important: This document is based on public information and may under no circumstances be used or construed as a commitment by Desjardins Group. While the information provided has been determined on the basis of data obtained from sources that
are deemed to be reliable, Desjardins Group in no way warrants that the information is accurate or complete. The document is provided solely for information purposes and does not constitute an offer or solicitation for purchase or sale. Desjardins Group
takes no responsibility for the consequences of any decision whatsoever made on the basis of the data contained herein and does not hereby undertake to provide any advice, notably in the area of investment services. The data on prices or margins are
provided for information purposes and may be modified at any time, based on such factors as market conditions. The past performances and projections expressed herein are no guarantee of future performance. The opinions and forecasts contained herein
are, unless otherwise indicated, those of the document’s authors and do not represent the opinions of any other person or the official position of Desjardins Group. Copyright © 2016, Desjardins Group. All rights reserved.
April 2016
Commodity Trends
www.desjardins.com/economics
Energy
Oil prices could oscillate around current levels for a while
Oil
•
•
•
•
Like the stock markets, oil prices fluctuated wildly in the first
quarter. The year 2016 began with an extremely negative
climate; fears of another financial crisis or global recession
took WTI (West Texas Intermediate) prices down to US$26
a barrel on February 11, a 12‑year low. Benefiting from
the upswing in optimism that followed due to such things
as vigorous measures from the European Central Bank,
WTI rebounded to just above US$40 a barrel in
mid‑March, then recently slid back a bit. Brent and WCS
(Western Canada Select) prices followed similar trends
(graph 3).
A lot of ink is being spilt over the very close link between
WTI prices and the level of the S&P 500 (graph 4), with
some seeing it as a sign that a rise by oil prices was now
good news for business and the U.S. economy. We think,
however, that the stock markets and oil both tend to react
to the same news on the state of the global economy,
as well as to investors’ mood changes. In recent weeks
some divergence has emerged, which could be a sign that
fundamental factors are starting to have more influence
over crude prices.
Fundamentally, talks between some member nations of the
Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and
Russia continue to get attention. Note that these countries
are no longer talking about cutting their output, but rather
about freezing it at current levels. A meeting on this matter,
to be held April 17, will certainly yield some volatility in the
oil market. In our opinion, such an agreement will however
have no impact on crude prices over the medium range.
Even without an agreement, nothing points to an increase
in production by Russia or most OPEC nations. Iran is
the exception, but no agreement will persuade it to keep
its production where it is now that trade sanctions have
been lifted. Iran’s output has already gone up by about
400,000 barrels a day since the start of 2016 and a similar
increase is anticipated by year’s end (graph 5). As for Iraq,
production seems to have crested following last year’s
impressive surge. Its evolution will now be more dependent
on domestic conditions than international agreements.
In the near term, movement by oil prices will primarily
depend on the pace at which U.S. output falls and the
strength of global demand. The outlook there has not
changed much over the months; we still expect the oil
supply and demand to be back at equilibrium toward
the end of 2016. The huge drop in oil sector investment,
however, is a substantial upside risk for prices over the
medium range. Wood Mackenzie estimates that the plunge
of oil prices will lead to a total of US$500B in investments
being abandoned or deferred, with a major impact on the
oil supply over the medium term. The Canadian situation
provides an apt illustration of this phenomenon (graph 6 on
page 3): Canadian output will keep increasing this year as
Graph 3 – Oil prices have rallied
US$/barrel
130
115
115
100
100
85
85
70
70
55
55
40
40
25
WTI*
Brent
10
2013
25
WCS**
2014
10
2016
2015
* West Texas Intermediate; ** Western Canada Select.
Sources: Datastream, Bloomberg and Desjardins, Economic Studies
Graph 4 – Until just recently, the stock market and oil prices
were moving in tandem
US$/barrel
US$/gallon
2,100
43
Price of WTI* oil (left)
S&P 500 (right)
41
2,050
39
37
2,000
35
1,950
33
31
1,900
29
1,850
27
25
1,800
Jan.
2016
Feb.
April
March
* West Texas Intermediate.
Sources: Datastream and Desjardins, Economic Studies
Graph 5 – Iran’s production has started to rebound,
but that of Iraq seems to be cresting
Millions of barrels/day
Millions of barrels/day
Crude oil production
5.0
4.2
4.5
4.0
4.0
3.8
3.6
3.5
3.4
3.0
3.2
2.5
3.0
2.0
2.8
1.5
2.6
1.0
2.4
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
Iraq (left)
Sources: Bloomberg and Desjardins, Economic Studies
2
US$/barrel
Price of oil
130
2012
2013
Iran (right)
2014
2015
2016
Commodity Trends
April 2016
projects started a few years ago come on line. The lack of
new investment, however, could make Canadian production
crest over the medium term.1
www.desjardins.com/economics
Graph 6 – Canadian oil production will keep increasing
in the short term, but could stagnate after that
Millions of barrels/day
Gasoline
•
Rebounding oil prices has pushed gas prices up a little.
In the United States, the average price for regular gas
has gone from less than US$1.75 a gallon at the start of
February to just over US$2 recently (graph 7). Canadian
gas prices are up about US$0.10 a litre from their February
low. Favourable seasonal factors and stabilizing oil prices
could make gas prices tick down over the months to
come. Tesla’s launch of a more economical electric car is
raising interesting questions about long-term gas demand.
However, the composition of the automobile fleet will
change very gradually.
Millions of barrels/day
Annual oil production
15
5.5
United States (left)
Canada (right)
14
5.0
13
4.5
12
11
4.0
10
3.5
9
8
3.0
7
IEA* forecasts
6
2000
2003
2006
2009
2012
2015
2018
2.5
2021
* International Energy Agency.
Sources: International Energy Agency and Desjardins, Economic Studies
Natural gas
•
After holding above US$2/MMBTU (Million British
Thermal Units) until mid‑February, natural gas prices
fell again, dropping to US$1.49/MMBTU at the start of
March, slightly below the cyclical low reached just before
Christmas. The very mild winter, which limited demand,
certainly has something to do with the low gas prices. The
U.S. Department of Energy recently wrote that, to date, the
temperature was above normal in 18 of the 21 weeks of the
2015–2016 heating season. Natural gas prices have come
up to nearly US$2 since then, reflecting a fairly chilly early
spring. The extremely large inventories (graph 8) suggest,
however, that prices will stay very low.
Forecasts: An ongoing surplus in the oil market and very
large global inventories do not suggest that oil prices will
go up further in the near future. After oscillating around
current levels for a while, WTI prices should start to
strengthen in the second half of 2016, ending the year at
around US$50 a barrel, as the global market should be
back in equilibrium. Natural gas prices should also remain
very low in the near future, then end the year at more
normal levels.
Graph 7 – Gasoline prices have crept back up a bit
US$/gallon
¢/litre
Average price of regular gasoline
145
140
135
130
125
120
115
110
105
100
95
90
85
80
75
70
4.1
3.9
3.7
3.5
3.3
3.1
2.9
2.7
2.5
2.3
2.1
1.9
United States (left)
1.7
1.5
Canada (right)
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
Sources: Datastream, Natural Resources Canada and Desjardins, Economic Studies
Graph 8 – U.S. natural gas inventories did not decrease
much over the winter
In billions of cubic feet
In billions of cubic feet
4,500
4,500
4,000
4,000
3,500
3,500
Maximum*
3,000
3,000
2,500
2,500
2,000
2,000
1,500
1,500
1,000
500
1,000
Minimum*
2013
2015
2014
Average*
Inventories
* From 2011 to 2015.
Sources: Energy Information Administration and Desjardins, Economic Studies
1
Desjardins, Economic Studies, Economic News, “Canadian oil production
should keep rising,” March 14, 2016, www.desjardins.com/ressources/pdf/
nf160314-e.pdf?resVer=1457963728000.
3
2016
500
April 2016
Commodity Trends
www.desjardins.com/economics
Base metals
Some encouraging signals from manufacturing
Overall, the first quarter of 2016 has been fairly good for
industrial metals. After showing some resilience at the
start of the year despite the surge in investor anxiety, base
metal prices have started trending up, capitalizing on the
U.S. dollar’s weakness and renewed investor confidence.
The LME (London Metal Exchange) index hit 2,369 at the
beginning of March, up 7.5% from the start of the year.
However, the last few weeks have not been as good, with
disappointing international trade data from China raising
renewed concern (graph 9).
The global economy’s modest growth is a big obstacle to
a strong metal price comeback. The latest disappointment
came from the U.S. economy, which seems to be heading
for very subdued economic growth in Q1 2016. The
U.S. manufacturing sector is nevertheless starting to send
out more encouraging signals: the ISM manufacturing
index is back above 50, the level that signals an expansion
of the manufacturing sector, and some of the major subcomponents have even surged (graph 10). In China,
too, manufacturing is sending better signals and the
government’s stimulus efforts should sustain demand for
metals.
Graph 9 – It is too early to talk about a new trend for industrial
metal prices
Index
Index
4,500
4,500
4,250
4,250
4,000
4,000
3,750
3,750
3,500
3,500
3,250
3,250
3,000
3,000
2,750
2,750
2,500
2,500
2,250
2010
2,250
200-day average
LMEX*
2,000
2011
2012
2,000
2013
2014
2015
2016
* London Metal Exchange base metals price index.
Sources: Datastream and Desjardins, Economic Studies
Graph 10 – The ISM manufacturing index in the United States
has climbed back above the 50 mark
Index
Index
ISM manufacturing index
64
64
62
62
60
60
58
58
56
56
54
54
52
52
Aluminum
50
50
48
48
•
46
46
After a very tough 2015, aluminium prices did well in
early 2016, even going above US$1,600 a tonne in early
March. Recently, however, they dropped back to around
US$1,500 a tonne (graph 11). Beyond financial factors and
the overall trend for metal prices, aluminium’s comeback
got a big hand from an agreement to cut Chinese production
at the end of 2015. The metal’s price has, however,
rebounded more than 20% from its low in China, which is
high enough to make about 50% of the country’s aluminium
production capacity profitable. Recently, therefore, some
Chinese producers have announced plans to start boosting
production, a worrisome development for the rest of the
world’s smelters.
44
44
2012
2013
Total
2014
Current production
2015
New orders
2016
Employment
Sources: Institute for Supply Management and Desjardins, Economic Studies
Graph 11 – Aluminum prices and inventories
US$/tonne
In thousands of tonnes
3,000
6,000
2,800
5,000
2,600
2,400
4,000
2,200
3,000
2,000
1,800
2,000
1,600
1,400
1,000
2010
2011
2012
2013
LME* price for aluminum (left)
Inventories (right)
* London Metal Exchange.
Sources: Datastream, Bloomberg and Desjardins, Economic Studies
4
2014
2015
2016
U.S. price including premium (left)
Commodity Trends
April 2016
www.desjardins.com/economics
Copper
•
Following the general trend, copper prices neared US$5,100
a tonne in early March, then returned to around US$4,700 a
tonne (graph 12). The metal’s price is still up nearly 4% for
the first quarter. Despite the upswing, copper prices remain
down about 20% over the last year. The big pullback was
primarily due to the fact that a number of analysts expected
the copper supply to outstrip demand in 2016. However, the
latest forecasts from the International Copper Study Group
(ICSG) now call for the market to be balanced this year,
despite very modest demand growth. Prompted by the drop
in prices, production cuts in the Democratic Republic of
Congo and Chile, among others, should be enough to keep
the supply from exceeding demand for copper.
Nickel
•
As in 2015, the start of 2016 was especially hard for nickel:
prices fell close to US$7,560 in mid‑February to set a
13‑year low. Prices then quickly rebounded, going above
US$9,350 a tonne at the start of March. This trend did not
last; nickel prices recently dropped to around US$8,500 a
tonne (graph 13), down from where they were at the end
of 2015. One of nickel’s problems is that producers have
been very reticent to cut production, preferring instead to
rely on the drop in energy costs and currency movements
to try to stay in the black. However, a drop in production
seems increasingly inevitable, particularly in China, which
should take the global nickel market into a deficit for 2016 as
a whole. Extremely large global inventories could limit the
comeback by nickel prices, however.
Graph 12 – Copper prices and inventories
US$/tonne
In thousands of tonnes
700
10,000
625
9,000
550
8,000
475
400
7,000
325
6,000
250
5,000
175
4,000
100
2010
2011
Price (left)
2014
2015
2016
Inventories (right)
Graph 13 – Nickel prices and inventories
US$/tonne
In thousands of tonnes
29,500
500
27,000
450
24,500
400
22,000
350
19,500
300
17,000
250
14,500
200
12,000
150
9,500
100
7,000
50
2011
Zinc
Zinc is still doing much better than the other industrial
metals. Its price went up 13.5% in the first quarter of 2016,
recently hitting US$1,870 a tonne, a peak that dates back to
last August (graph 14). Unlike what we are seeing for nickel,
zinc producers did not hesitate to slash output in the face of
last year’s price collapse. In a context of favourable demand,
therefore, zinc’s solid performance is not surprising.
2013
Sources: Datastream and Desjardins, Economic Studies
2010
•
2012
2012
2013
Price (left)
2014
2015
2016
Inventories (right)
Sources: Datastream and Desjardins, Economic Studies
Graph 14 – Zinc prices and inventories
US$/tonne
In thousands of tonnes
1,300
2,750
Forecasts: For now, everything suggests global growth
will be modest again this year. No surge by demand or
industrial metal prices is thus anticipated. Nonetheless,
some promising developments in China and the
manufacturing sector, along with production cuts, suggest
we can hope for some price increase in 2016 after last
year’s spectacular plunge. Over the medium term, metals
with a limited supply, particularly copper, have greater
potential to rise than metals like aluminium and iron, where
production capacity that became unprofitable as a result
of the drop in prices could come back on line quite quickly
once the context is better.
1,200
2,500
1,100
1,000
2,250
900
2,000
800
700
1,750
600
1,500
500
1,250
400
2010
2011
2012
2013
Price (left)
2014
Inventories (right)
Sources: Datastream and Desjardins, Economic Studies
5
2015
2016
April 2016
Commodity Trends
www.desjardins.com/economics
Precious metals
Thanks to the central banks
Precious metal prices have really stolen the show since the
beginning of 2016. The focus was on the 16% increase in
gold prices, the biggest one-quarter advance in 30 years, but
silver and platinum also posted a remarkable quarter.
Graph 15 – Prices of gold and silver
US$/ounce
US$/ounce
2,000
50
Gold (left)
Silver (right)
1,800
Gold and silver
•
40
35
1,600
Despite the renewed investor confidence and stock market
advance since mid‑February, gold prices have kept rising,
hitting US$1,271 an ounce in early March. Gold prices
have come down somewhat since then, ending March at
US$1,234 an ounce, but still posting an outstanding quarter,
like silver (graph 15). If gold prices remain high even though
the markets have calmed down somewhat, it is because
everything suggests that monetary policies will be even
more accommodative than anticipated before. Note that the
Bank of Japan decided to try experimenting with negative
rates as well, and that very aggressive measures from the
European Central Bank suggest that European yields will
be very low or negative for several more quarters. Even
the Federal Reserve (Fed) is being very hesitant to move
ahead with monetary firming (graph 16). Ongoing rates this
low is excellent news for gold, since it almost completely
eliminates the opportunity cost involved in holding this
asset. In a context in which many experts and even some
central banks are going so far as to consider printing money
to give the economy direct stimulus, we can also see why
some investors find gold attractive as a hedge against a
generalized drop in currency values.
30
1,400
25
20
1,200
15
1,000
10
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
Sources: Datastream and Desjardins, Economic Studies
Graph 16 – The downwards revision to expectations surrounding
U.S. key interest rates did damage to the greenback and favoured gold
In %
Index
80
100
70
99
60
98
50
97
40
96
30
95
20
94
10
0
Platinum and palladium
•
The financial factors that favoured gold and silver also
prompted a substantial rise in platinum and palladium prices
(graph 17). Recent signs that manufacturing is improving in
a number of countries and fairly robust demand for motor
vehicles around the world are also encouraging for demand
for these two metals.
45
93
Jan.
Feb.
2016
March
April
Probability of a hike in the U.S. key interest rate between now and mid-2016 (left)
DXY U.S. dollar index (right)
Sources: Bloomberg and Desjardins, Economic Studies
Graph 17 – Prices of platinum and palladium
Forecasts: We have raised our targets for gold prices
slightly to reflect the aggressive actions being taken by
central banks, which will limit the rise of interest rates. The
market’s reaction to the Fed’s recent statements seems
exaggerated, however. The U.S. economic situation
remains fairly good and a second key rate increase could
come as early as June. This should put the U.S. dollar on
an upward path and take gold prices to around US$1,100
an ounce by the end of 2016.
US$/ounce
US$/ounce
1,950
950
1,800
850
1,650
750
1,500
1,350
650
1,200
550
1,050
450
900
750
350
2010
2011
2012
2013
Platinum (left)
Sources: Datastream and Desjardins, Economic Studies
6
2014
2015
Palladium (right)
2016
Commodity Trends
April 2016
www.desjardins.com/economics
Other commodities
U.S. farmers are turning to corn
Forest products
•
After plunging in 2015 and getting 2016 off to a difficult start,
the benchmark price for U.S. lumber rebounded in the last
few weeks, ending the first quarter of 2016 at US$340/tbf
(thousand board feet) (graph 18). March’s positive meeting
between Prime Minister Trudeau and President Obama
seems to have had a hand in the upswing. For some, the
good relationship between the two leaders improves the
chances of another lumber agreement. Such an agreement
could buoy wood prices in the U.S. market by limiting or
taxing Canadian imports. Note that, since the previous
accord ended last October, the North American market
has been in a free trade situation, something that is not
expected to last long. Favourable seasonal factors and
slightly stronger data on housing starts also had a hand
in the recent upswing in wood prices. Wood prices could
now consolidate their recent gains.
Graph 18 – Prices of forest products
US$/tbf*
1,050
425
1,025
400
1,000
375
975
350
950
325
925
300
900
275
875
250
850
825
225
2010
•
Wheat prices jumped nearly 15% in the first quarter,
contrasting with the 2% pullback by corn prices. For their
part, soybean prices gained just over 3%. Cereal price
movements are a lot more similar over 12 months, with
drops ranging from 4.5% to 7.3%.
The publication of U.S. farmers’ planting intentions at the end
of March magnified the retreat by corn prices. Beating all of
the analysts’ forecasts, the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s
estimates point to a 6% increase in corn acreage this year.
Conversely, the acreage dedicated to wheat should shrink
9% from last year, while soybeans are expected to be almost
stable (graph 19). U.S. cereal stock evolution could partly
explain farmers’ decision. Corn stocks advanced by just
1% in the 12 months ending March 31, 2016, while wheat
and soybean stocks jumped by 20% and 15% respectively
(graph 20). U.S. wheat exports are not very competitive at
the moment, another reason for farmers’ decision to turn
their backs on this cereal. Failing inclement weather in
the next few months, everything suggests that cereal
prices will stay fairly low.
2011
2012
2013
2014
Lumber (left)
2015
2016
Pulp (right)
* Thousand board feet.
Sources: Datastream and Desjardins, Economic Studies
AGRICULTURAL COMMODITIES
•
US$/tonne
450
Graph 19 – Planted acreages in the United States
In millions of acres
In millions of acres
100
100
95
95
90
90
85
85
80
80
75
75
70
70
65
65
60
60
55
55
50
50
45
45
1990
1995
2000
Wheat
2005
Corn
2010
2015
Soybeans
Sources: Datastream and Desjardins, Economic Studies
Graph 20 – U.S. cereal stocks
In billions of bushels
9
In billions of bushels
9
+1%
8
8
7
7
6
6
5
5
4
4
3
2
3
+15%
+20%
1
2
1
0
0
Wheat
Corn
March 2015
March 2016
Sources: U.S. Department of Agriculture and Desjardins, Economic Studies
7
Soybeans
April 2016
Commodity Trends
www.desjardins.com/economics
Table 1
Commodities
Percentage return since
Spot price
April 12
1 month
1 year
high
Average
low
Index
1
2
Reuter-CRB (CCI )
1
Reuters/Jefferies CRB
Bloomberg Commodity Index
Bank of Canada
383.8
171.8
79.3
336.7
‑0.5
‑1.0
‑0.8
3.5
5.9
6.0
6.5
5.7
‑5.3
‑14.0
‑12.0
‑9.7
‑8.5
‑20.9
‑20.3
‑19.5
439.0
231.8
105.5
456.4
396.4
193.4
87.8
371.7
353.7
155.0
72.9
288.1
Energy
Brent oil (US$/barrel)
WTI 3 oil (US$/barrel)
Gasoline (US$/gallon)
Natural gas (US$/MMBTU4)
43.0
40.5
2.07
1.88
5.9
5.1
12.4
9.3
42.4
33.0
3.7
‑21.0
‑16.4
‑14.1
‑11.5
‑23.0
‑24.7
‑21.6
‑14.3
‑26.0
68.2
61.4
2.84
3.07
47.8
44.6
2.32
2.37
27.8
26.2
1.72
1.49
Base metals
5
LMEX
Aluminium (US$/tonne)
Copper (US$/tonne)
Nickel (US$/tonne)
Zinc (US$/tonne)
Steel (US$/tonne)
2,214
1,495
4,679
8,525
1,748
76.0
‑4.9
‑3.7
‑6.2
‑3.1
‑2.8
‑0.4
8.1
3.2
7.7
4.0
20.2
‑61.4
‑9.3
‑5.2
‑12.2
‑19.7
‑4.0
‑60.7
‑20.1
‑15.6
‑22.7
‑32.2
‑20.6
‑74.4
3,003
1,959
6,482
14,318
2,434
296.5
2,402
1,585
5,189
10,272
1,822
174.1
2,049
1,426
4,328
7,562
1,455
75.5
Precious metals
Gold (US$/ounce)
Silver (US$/ounce)
Platinum (US$/ounce)
Palladium (US$/ounce)
1,258
15.6
981.0
547.0
‑0.1
0.4
0.7
‑5.0
15.5
12.1
16.4
16.4
8.3
‑2.5
‑1.2
‑23.1
4.2
‑6.0
‑16.2
‑29.6
1,271
17.7
1,174
798.0
1,152
15.2
978.4
621.0
1,052
13.6
814.0
470.0
Other commodities
Lumber (US$/tbf 6)
Pulp (US$/tonne)
Wheat (US$/bushel)
Corn (US$/bushel)
Soybean (US$/bushel)
347.0
940.0
4.67
3.52
8.93
7.8
0.0
‑3.5
‑1.0
1.7
8.4
0.0
6.5
0.4
2.2
13.8
‑2.1
5.3
‑4.0
3.3
3.3
‑3.6
‑11.2
‑2.2
‑5.2
349.0
975.0
5.88
4.15
10.47
321.2
958.5
4.63
3.59
9.07
294.0
940.0
3.97
3.36
8.40
1
Commodity Research Bureau; 2 Continuous Commodity Index;
Thousand of board feet.
Note: Currency table base on previous day closure.
6
3
3 months 6 months
Last 52 weeks
West Texas Intermediate;
4
Million British Thermal Unit;
5
London Metal Exchange Index;
Table 2
Commodities prices: history and forecasts
2014
2015
2016f
2017f
93
49
Target: 40
(range: 34 to 44)
Target: 52
(range: 40 to 60)
4.34
2.65
Target: 2.30
(range: 1.90 to 2.60)
Target: 2.75
(range: 2.25 to 3.50)
Gold (US$/ounce)
1,266
1,160
Target: 1,175
(range: 1,125 to 1,275)
Target: 1,050
(range: 950 to 1,150)
LMEX*** index—base metals
3,117
2,550
Target: 2,300
(range: 2,100 to 2,500)
Target: 2,600
(range: 2,200 to 3,000)
Annual average
WTI* oil (US$/barrel)
Natural gas Henry Hub
(US$/MMBTU**)
f: forecasts; * West Texas Intermediate; ** Million British Thermal Unit; *** London Metal Exchange Index.
Sources: Datastream and Desjardins, Economic Studies
8