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Article:
Fuhrer, Jürg, Val Martin, Maria, Mills, Gina et al. (6 more authors) (2016) Current and
future ozone risks to global terrestrial biodiversity and ecosystem processes. Ecology and
Evolution. pp. 8785-8799. ISSN 2045-7758
https://doi.org/10.1002/ece3.2568
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Revised
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Accepted
August
DOI: 10.1002/ece3.2568
REVIEW
Current and future ozone risks to global terrestrial biodiversity
and ecosystem processes
Jürg Fuhrer1 | Maria Va Mar n2 | Gina Mi s3 | Co ete L Hea d4 | Harry Harmens3 |
Fe icity Hayes3 | Katrina Sharps3 | J rgen Bender5 | Mike R Ashmore6
Agroscope C imate Air Po u on Group
Zurich Switzer and
1
Department of Chemica and Bio ogica
Engineering University of Sheie d
Sheie d UK
2
Centre for Eco ogy and
Hydro ogy Environment Centre Wa es
Bangor Gwynedd UK
3
Department of Civi and Environmenta
Engineering and Department of
Earth Atmospheric and P anetary
Sciences Massachusets Ins tute of
Techno ogy Cambridge MA USA
Ins tute of Biodiversity Th nen Ins tute
Braunschweig Germany
5
Abstract
Risks associated with exposure of individua p ant species to ozone O3) are well documented but imp ica ons for terrestria biodiversity and ecosystem processes have received insuicient aten on This is an important gap because feedbacks to the atmosphere
may change as future O3 eve s increase or decrease depending on air qua ity and c imate
po icies G oba simu a on of O3 using the Community Earth System Mode CESM revea ed that in
about
of the G oba
terrestria ecoregions ER were ex-
posed to O3 above thresho ds for eco ogica risks with highest exposures in North America
and Southern Europe where there is ie d evidence of adverse efects of O3 and in centra
Asia Experimenta studies show that O3 can adverse y afect the growth and lowering of
p ants and a ter species composi on and richness a though some communi es can be
Stockho m Environment
Ins tute University of York York UK
resi ient Addi ona efects inc ude changes in water lux regu a on po ina on eiciency
Correspondence
J rg Fuhrer Agroscope C imate Air
Po u on Group Zurich Switzer and
Emai juerg fuhrer agroscope admin ch
ground inc uding changes in soi invertebrates p ant iter quan ty and qua ity decompo-
Funding informa on
UK Defra Grant Award Number AQ
NERC UN LRTAP Conven on US Na ona
Park Service Grant Award Number
H
J
US
Na ona Science Founda on Grant Award
Number AGS
Na ona Science
Founda on Oice of Science BER of the
US Department of Energy
emission scenario RCP
6
and p ant pathogen deve opment Recent research is unrave ing a range of efects be owsi on and nutrient cyc ing and carbon poo s Changes are ike y s ow and may take
decades to become detectab e CESM simu a ons for
scenario RCP
show that O3 exposure under
increases in a major biomes and that po icies represented in
do not ead to a genera reduc on in O3 risks rather
of ERs s
show an increase in exposure A though a conceptua mode is acking to extrapo ate documented efects to ERs with imited or no oca informa on and there is uncertainty about
interac ons with nitrogen input and c imate change the ana ysis suggests that in many
ERs O3 risks wi persist for biodiversity at diferent trophic eve s and for a range of ecosystem processes and feedbacks which deserves more aten on when assessing eco ogica imp ica ons of future atmospheric po u on and c imate change
KEYWORDS
air po u on atmospheric feedback Community Earth System Mode G
ecoregions g oba
c imate change species diversity
| INTRODUCTION
inc uding atmospheric nutrient inputs and c imate change are expected to persist in the future Sa a et a
This has wide imp i-
Dec ining biodiversity is a g oba concern and pressures from human
ca ons for ecosystem func on Hooper et a
and in turn for
inluences such as and use and changing environmenta condi ons
provisioning mu p e ecosystem services to humans Cardina e et a
This is an open access ar c e under the terms of the Crea ve Commons Atribu on License which permits use distribu on and reproduc on in any medium
provided the origina work is proper y cited
Eco ogy and Evo u on 2016; 6: 8785–8799
www.ecolevol.org
© 2016 The Authors. Eco ogy and Evo u on
published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.
|
8785
|
FUHRER ET AL.
Changing habitat condi ons and disturbance are among the
main causes of changes in p ant communi es at a g oba sca e Ti man
Lehman
The CESM mode reproduces g oba surface O3 eve s we
va ues at any oca on may difer by up to
a though
from measured va ues
Air po u on is recognized as an important factor af-
Ti mes et a
fec ng habitat condi ons g oba y whi e tropospheric ozone O3) has
ios Tab e S
been iden ied as the most widespread phytotoxic gaseous po utant
at
causing signiicant ong term abio c stress over arge areas Ashmore
house gas emissions con nue to increase over this century and there
As a resu t of increasing emissions of precursor gases carbon
is no c imate stabi iza on The g oba precursor emissions of CO NOx
monoxide CO oxides of nitrogen NOx vo a e organic compounds
VOC and methane CH
since the
mean concentra ons have been growing
s at a rate of
hemisphere NH and by
SH Cooper et a
ppb decade on average in the northern
ppb decade in the southern hemisphere
We considered resu ts for two contras ng scenarRCP
which aims to stabi ize g oba radia ve forcing
W m2 by the end of the century and RCP
and VOCs in
in which green-
are simi ar in these two RCPs but
ons of CH are much higher under RCP
concentra-
this is re evant because
CH contributes to background tropospheric O3 eve s both as an O3
precursor and by its efect on g oba warming West
Fiore
According to the four representa ve con-
centra on pathways RCPs used in the Intergovernmenta Pane on
C imate Change Fith Assessment Report AR
IPCC
| O 3 EXPOSURE OF G
by the
midd e of this century both increases and decreases in tropospheric
ECOREGIONS
O3 concentra ons are possib e depending on the regiona ba ance be-
From the CESM simu a ons of hour y surface O3 concentra ons we
tween processes eading to either forma on or destruc on of O3 and
derived a metric designed to capture the risk of ong term eco ogi-
the extent of adop on of air po u on abatement measures under y-
cal damage associated with O3 exposure This was the M
ing the diferent RCPs Fiore et a
index represen ng the mean
Greenhouse gas emissions
exposure
hr day ight concentra on over a
difer between RCPs and the consequent efects on c imate and and
three month period The g oba distribu on of M
use a so a ter the concentra ons and distribu on of O3 which a so
month periods in
for four three
acts as important greenhouse gas
highest O3 exposures are found at mid a tudes in NH Figure a
revea s that in the March August period
The g oba threats to agricu tura yie ds and food security posed by
O3 under diferent scenarios have been quan ied and discussed by
severa studies Chuwah van Noije van Vuuren Stehfest
Tai Mar n
Hea d
Haze eger
(a)
In contrast imp ica ons for bio-
diversity at the g oba sca e are much ess certain and have had it e
recogni on This is an important gap which deserves aten on when
assessing eco ogica imp ica ons of future deve opments of atmospheric po u on and c imate Here we provide a g oba eva ua on of
the current year
G
and future
MAM
JJA
SON
DJF
O3 exposure of the G oba
terrestria ecoregions ER which are priority regions for
conserva on O son
Dinerstein
wwf panda org ERs have
re a ve y uniform c imate with a characteris c set of eco ogica communi es They are typiied by high numbers of endemic species high
taxonomic uniqueness g oba rarity and or unique eco ogica phenomena They have been se ected for their irrep aceabi ity and dis nc-
(b)
veness and represent a the major g oba biomes We focus on the
G
ERs rather than on biodiversity hot spots because our focus is
on broader issues of ecosystem structure and func on rather than the
threat to individua species
We ink this eva ua on of O3 exposure to a cri ca focused review of the observa ona and experimenta evidence for impacts of
elevated O3 exposure on terrestria biodiversity and on downstream
ecosystem processes and re ated feedbacks to the atmosphere This
review is based most y on evidence in temperate regions and we discuss the extrapo a on to regions for which it e know edge of O3 effects current y exists Fina y we assess possib e risks and beneits of
diferent c imate and air po u on po icies for the ERs and for the major
biomes within which they are situated in diferent regions of the wor d
Our simu a ons used the Community Earth System Mode CESM
Appendix S
inc uding changes in anthropogenic emissions of pre-
cursor gases and c imate but not and use Va Mar n et a
FIGURE Simu ated surface O3 concentrations in
a
Seasona dai y
hour M
averages from a m to p m LST
for March Apri May MAM June Ju y August JJA September
October November SON and December January February DJF
b Simu ated maximum M
i e the highest of the four seasona
va ues in a within G
ER The map shows CESM M output
regridded to the G
map reso ution
M concentrations outside the G
areas are masked in gray
|
FUHRER ET AL.
Concentra ons are simi ar y distributed but ower in the NH in
September November whi e in December February concentra ons
TABLE G
ERs with the highest simu ated month y M
exposure ppb in
are highest in areas of China and moderate over more southern andmasses In the SH where O3 concentra ons are genera y ower the
highest va ues are found in mid a tudes from June to November
In order to assess the risk for individua G
the mean va ue of each three month M
ERs we ca cu ated
va ue over the who e area
of each ER We then se ected the highest of the four three month
M
means avoiding seasons with no ac ve vegeta on at high at-
itudes We used this index rather than the highest running mean
three month M
so that we cou d re ate individua ER exposure to
the g oba distribu on of exposure in the same ixed periods Figure b
shows the resu tant ER exposure in
This high ights the re a ve y
ow exposure of the SH and tropica ERs compared with those in the
NH from the subtropics to the po es It is important to emphasize that
this is an indica ve measure of risk within each ER there wi be spaa varia on in both O3 exposure and O3 uptake and p ant community
distribu on which cannot be assessed at this g oba sca e
The UNECE Conven on on Long Range Transboundary Air Po u on
CLRTAP uses AOT
risks Appendix S
over
as an exposure index for es ma ng eco ogica
and deines an AOT
of
ppm hr accumu ated
ER name
M
Temperate broad eaf and mixed
forests
Appa achian and mixed
mesophy c forests
65.2
Mediterranean forests
wood ands and shrub
Ca ifornia chaparra and
wood ands
65.0
Temperate broad eaf and mixed
forests
Western Hima ayan
temperate forests
Montane grass and and
shrub ands
Tibetan P ateau steppe
Tropica and subtropica
grass ands savannas and
shrub ands
Terai Duar savannas
and grass ands
Temperate coniferous forests
Sierra Nevada
coniferous forests
62.0
Montane grass and and
shrub ands
Eastern Hima ayan
a pine meadows
61.1
Mediterranean forests
wood ands and shrubs
Mediterranean forests
60.8
Temperate coniferous forests
Caucasus Anato ian
Hyrcanian temperate
forests
60.2
Montane grass and and
shrub ands
Midd e Asian montane
steppe and wood ands
59.8
months as a cri ca eve of O3 above which adverse efects
may occur on the growth of the most sensi ve species of semi natura
communi es dominated by annua s CLRTAP
at a three month mean M
hood that the AOT
to
va ue of
We es mate that
va ues in individua G
ppb Tab e S
63.9
ppb there is a high ike i-
cri ca eve wi be exceeded Figure S
The three month y M
from
Biome
The
ERs ranged
ERs with the highest expo-
sure a have maximum three month y M
va ues
ppb Tab e
O3 injury under ambient condi ons and veriied by experts Appendix
S
revea ed that over
of these incidences invo ving
species
of forbs shrubs and trees across four con nents occurred in Europe
and North America where studies on O3 efects on vegeta on tend
These ERs fa within ive major biomes four are in the temperate
to be concentrated but visib e injury was a so reported for Asia and
broad eaf and coniferous forests biome two in the Mediterranean
La n America despite ower monitoring efort there Tab e
forests wood ands and shrubs biome and three are in the montane
these incidences or species were within G
grass ands biome on y the Terai Duar savannas and grass ands at the
Not a
ERs but this informa-
on conirms the poten a for O3 impacts in many wor d regions This
base of the Hima ayas are in a subtropica biome Three are in North
is supported by other studies for examp e in Europe
America ive in Asia and two stretch across Eurasia Some of these
grasses forbs and shrubs exhibited visib e O3 injury over the period
ERs are a so associated with g oba biodiversity hot spots as iden ied
by Myers Mitermeier Mitermeier de Fonesca and Kent
for
examp e in Ca ifornia the Mediterranean Basin the Caucasus and
the Hima ayas As CESM mode predic ons may difer from measured
TABLE Number of incidences of recorded ozone injury by
con nent observed between
and
va ues see above there is some uncertainty in the precise rankings of
ERs in Tab e
and in Tab e S
which provides M
va ues for a ERs
fusion of the gas into p ants via the stomata pores on the eaf surface
Inside eaves O3 reacts with unsaturated biomo ecu es to form reacve oxygen species ini a y causing programmed ce death visib e
Kangasj rvi
Such visib e injury is the on y indicator of adverse impacts that
can be rou ne y surveyed in the ie d Records gathered between
and
from diferent sources of
Forb
Shrub
Europe
25
65
S America
Phytotoxic efects of e evated O3 exposures depend on mo ecu ar dif-
on the eaf surface as sma necro c esions Vainonen
Region
N America
| FIELD EVIDENCE OF O 3 INJURY
observed incidences of visib e
species of
9
South East Asia
Tota
90
Tree
1
3
No data
5
Forb,
shrub and
tree
Tota
290
10
33
57
76
95
505
Tota number of species of forb shrub and tree injured
Data on
Forbs shrubs and trees for North America is from a summary report of
visits to O3 biomonitoring sites across
visib e O3 injury records from
the con nent between
and
U S Environmenta Protec on
Agency
Each site has at east
individua p ants of two bioindicator species present The ist of species inc udes a variety of re a ve y common forbs shrubs and herbs which are easy to iden fy
|
FUHRER ET AL.
Mi s Hayes et a
Mi s P eije et a
and
The existence of wide diferences in sensi vity between species
in forests a systema c assessment of observa ona data for
imp ies that O3 stress can cause ong term shits in species evenness
revea ed symptoms in
or richness in diverse p ant communi es There is some observa-
tries Schaub
diferent species across
European coun-
Ca atayud
ona evidence of such efects within the North America ERs isted
Despite this evidence of exposure of many ERs to O3 above phyto-
in Tab e
for instance changes in species richness in coasta shrub
toxic eve s and the evidence of widespread visib e injury O3 is arge y
vegeta on Artemisia californica Less. within the Ca ifornia chaparra
ignored in g oba assessments of threats to biodiversity for instance in
and wood ands ER were atributed to O3 Westman
the atest assessment by the UN Conven on on Bio ogica Diversity
niicant changes in stand composi on have been reported a ong O3
G oba Diversity Out ook
CBD
Furthermore whi e Target
of the Aichi Biodiversity Targets under the CBD aims to reduce po u on
by
gradients in the San Bernardino Mountains Mi er
Sierra Nevada coniferous forest ER Arbaugh
and sigwithin the
Bytnerowicz
to eve s that are not detrimenta to ecosystem func on and
a though efects of O3 in these areas may be diicu t to separate from
biodiversity there is to date no speciic reference to O3 and no indicator
other inluencing factors such as high nitrogen N deposi on Fenn
has been iden ied This situa on ike y relects the ack of unequivoca
Poth Bytnerowicz Sickman
Takemoto
Payne et a
evidence of widespread and major a tera ons in biodiversity due to O3
iden ied O3 as a key driver of composi ona changes in species in
under natura condi ons We suspect that this is because ong term ef-
Bri sh acid grass and in addi on to N deposi on a though it was not
fects of O3 may be subt e and diicu t to detect under comp ex and
associated with a reduc on in species richness or diversity indices In
variab e ie d condi ons inc uding the presence of over apping factors
genera ie d evidence for composi ona changes remains very scarce
inluencing biodiversity and we review these issues be ow
and most evidence for the poten a impact of O3 on p ant diversity
therefore rests on data from contro ed experiments with either ar -
| CHANGES IN PLANT COMMUNITIES
icia mode communi es or intact ecosystems in which O3 levels are
varied whi e other factors are kept constant Weige Bergmann
Bender
Some species are beter protected from O3 stress than others due
Composi ona changes caused by O3 remain diicu t to predict
to diferences in eaf difusive proper es ce u ar detoxiica on ca-
from the observed responses of individua species when grown a one
pacity compensatory biomass produc on and a oca on or isoprene
Bassin Vo k
emission However the gene c basis for the diferen a sensi vity
ac ons in terms of compe
remains e usive a though some recent studies with O3 sensi ve and
under ow eve s of stress whi e faci ita on becomes more import-
O3 resistant Arabadopsis thaliana Xu et a
ant under increasing stress and decreasing produc vity Maestre
as rice Frei
and crops such
have iden ied mu p e qua ita ve trait oci po-
ten a y invo ved in regu a ng the O3 response Furthermore and
Fuhrer
Ca away Va adares
Like y reasons for that are species interon or faci ita on Compe
Lor e
on dominates
Consequent y species responses
inside communi es can be contrary to expecta ons For examp e in
in contrast to many other environmenta stresses there is a imited
a grass and community O3 sensi ve forbs beneited from e evated
func ona patern to O3 sensi vity For examp e a meta ana ysis of
O3 due to reduc ons in the cover of dominant grass species Evans
co ated data from ie d chamber experiments main y conducted on
Ashmore
Exposure to e evated O3 of an up and mesotro-
grass ands heath ands and wet ands in temperate regions of Europe
phic grass and in the UK that was managed to increase species di-
revea ed that a though species with a therophy c ife form appear to
versity signiicant y decreased the biomass of Ranunculus species this
be genera y more sensi ve to O3 there was no re a onship between
was atributed to reduced performance of the hemi parasi c species
O3 sensi vity and eaf ongevity lowering season stomata density or
Rhinanthus minor ye ow rat e a species that reduces the produc-
maximum a tude nor between O3 sensi vity and Grime s func ona
types Hayes Jones Mi s
Ashmore
ana ysis Jones Hayes Mi s Sparks
Fuhrer
vity of grasses and opens up the grass and canopy sugges ng that
However another
O3 stress may be a signiicant barrier to achieving increased species
of the same da-
diversity in managed grass ands because of its efects on this keystone
tabase suggested that ight oving species tend to be more sensi ve
species Wed ich et a
In an ear y succession pine forest com-
than those that norma y occur in the shade p ants of dry sites tend
munity O3 sensi ve b ackberry Rubus cuneifolius) reached the highest
to be more sensi ve than those found in more moist soi s and p ants
cover under high O3 exposure Barbo Chappe ka Somers Mi er
to erant of moderate y sa ine condi ons are more sensi ve than those
Goodman
of nonsa ine habitats The extent to which these indings can be gen-
ess afected by O3 than its eaf injury indicated or it was more efec-
era ized to species in other ERs is uncertain as the sensi vity of the
Sto te
either because growth of b ackberry was
ve in out compe ng other ess O3 sensi ve species for resources
species in many of the ERs with high O3 exposure is unknown But
In genera efects of O3 on the compe
the fact that species from the Fabacea or Leguminosae fami y have
are not uniform and may depend on the species mixture Nussbaum
ve ba ance between species
consistent y been found to be re a ve y more sensi ve than those of
Bungener Geissmann
Fuhrer
other fami ies and because Fabacea inc uding many trees shrubs and
In herbaceous species short term sensi vity of growth to O3 is pos-
herbaceous p ant species are an ubiquitous component of both tem-
i ve y re ated to inherent re a ve growth rate Bungener Nussbaum
perate and tropica ERs O3 sensi ve species are ike y to be present
Grub
in ERs that so far have not been monitored
Barnes
Fuhrer
Danie sson Ge ang
P eije
Davison
sugges ng that faster growing species tend to be more
|
FUHRER ET AL.
O3 sensi ve than s ower growing species Thus in ERs where re a ve
Wagg Mi s Wi kinson
Hayes Wi iamson
Mi s
and such subt e shits p ay an important ro e when lowering
growth rates are genera y ow O3 stress wou d be ess damaging than
in ERs dominated by faster growing species In fact ater severa years
Davies
is c ose y synchronized with po ina ng species B ack et a
changes in the func ona group composi on of suba pine grass and
In addi on lora scent trai s in the form of VOCs emited by low-
at high O3 Vo k Bungener Contat Montani
ers that are essen a for p ant insect interac ons are chemica y de-
Fuhrer
cou d
not be separated sta s ca y from nutrient gradient efects Stampli
Fuhrer
Simi ar y a montane Geo Montani Nardetum proved
graded or transformed by O3 B ande Ho opainen
Farr Armengo et a
Niinemets
thus reducing the signa ing distance and
resi ient to ong term O3 exposure regard ess of extra N input Bassin
the signa speciicity and eiciency McFrederick Fuentes Rou ston
Vo k
Kathi anka
Fuhrer
this was not caused by ow canopy O3 uptake
Vo k Wo f Bassin Ammann
Fuhrer
However in the ab-
sence of changes in species micro evo u onary adapta on to O3
stress might be invo ved in these permanent o d grass ands K
Bassin Schneider Widmer
Moran
Kubiske
Fuhrer
in turn in patchy or fragmented habi-
tats po inators spend more me searching for lowers McFrederick
Kathi anka
Fuentes
iker
and a so in some forests
For instance because of a compe
Lerdau
ve dis-
advantage the most sensi ve aspen genotype was e iminated in a
| CHANGES IN SOIL MICROBIOTA AND
NUTRIENT CYCLING
seven year exposure to e evated O3 from the seed ing stage through
to maturity a though tota growth of the stand was not afected
The be owground ecosystem compartment is insu ated from direct O3
Kubiske Quinn Marquardt
exposure but there is an accumu a ng body of evidence that efects
Karnosky
Shits in community composi on cou d a so resu t from speciic
aboveground trans ate into changes in soi microbia communi es and
changes in reproduc ve success caused by decreased biomass a oca-
further propagate through the microbia food web to a ter carbon C
on Bender Bergmann
Weige
Wang et a
reproduc ve growth and deve opment Leisner
and seed produc on Bender et a
impairing
atmosphere are depicted in Figure
Treshow
or from direct efects of O3 on reproduc ve structures B ack B ack
Roberts
Stewart
The main pathways considered here
and their imp ica ons for ecosystem processes and feedbacks to the
Ainsworth
Harward
and N cyc ing Lindroth
In temperate grass ands experimenta O3
A genera but high y variab e trend is that under high O3 re a ve y
ess biomass is a ocated to roots compared to shoots with a mean re-
treatment reduced seed number fruit number and weight but in-
duc on by
creased lower number and lower weight in a number of species for
Gunn
examp e in paper birch Betula papyrifera Leisner
consequent y may signiicant y afect ong term soi C forma on rates
Ainsworth
across a species covered in a meta ana ysis Grantz
Vu
This reduces the amount of root detrita inputs and
and decreased seed weight and germina on rate Darbah et a
Loya Pregitzer Karberg King
Giardina
In addi on to iter
with imp ica ons for the estab ishment and surviva of the progeny
input iter decomposi on is a key process in nutrient cyc ing which in
Where p ant composi on great y depends on the be owground seed
comp ex ways depends on the diversity of iter the decomposer com-
poo dec ining reproduc ve success can be caused by e evated O3 ex-
munity Gessner et a
posure such as in the Dehesa annua grass ands which cover severa
It has been suggested that p ant species richness is not re ated to the
mi ion hectares in the Iberian Peninsu a within the high y O3 exposed
diversity of iter composi on Meier
and environmenta and soi condi ons
Bowman
and thus O3
Gimeno
efects at the species diversity eve may be of imited re evance for
Efects of O3 stress at the community eve can be masked by
sence of changes in p ant diversity O3 s ows decomposi on a though
interac on with disturbances caused by pests and diseases A tered
a genera patern is acking and a range of diferent mechanisms cou d
eaf surface proper es increased the natura infec on by eaf rust
be invo ved Couture
Mediterranean forests wood ands and shrubs ER Tab e
Bermejo Sanz De La Torre
iter decomposi on in the soi But evidence exists that in the ab-
E vira
Melampsora medusae Thuem f sp tremuloidae in tremb ing aspen
Populus tremuloides Michx
Karnosky
Percy Mankovska Hopkin Ca an
func ona diversity caused by a tered iter qua ity Aneja et a
and induced changes in host p ant preferences thus
a tering the distribu on of herbivory as we as compe
ons among them Agre
Kopper McDona d
Mi er Goodman
O3
Naidu Karnosky
stress improved tree fo iage qua ity for herbivores and thus favored
the growth of eaf chewing insects Va kama Koricheva
Liter from O3 exposed p ants is more reca citrant Kim Chappe ka
ve interac-
Lindroth
Lindroth
S ower decomposi on cou d be re ated to changing soi microbia
Oksanen
as many specia ist insect herbivores succeed we on diets con-
due to a higher C N ra o Wi g Ainsworth
Long
a higher eve of tannins and re ated
pheno ic compounds Liu King
Richet et a
Giardina
and more ignin
Soi fauna a so p ays an essen a ro e in recyc ing
of soi organic mater SOM energy and nutrients There is evidence
taining materia with a high eve of pheno ics or terpenoids A so
of nega ve efects of O3 on soi nematodes Bao Li Hua Zhao
O3 can afect po ina on and food supp y of nectar feeding insects
Liang
through changes in lowering ming and signa ing F owering can be
Bender
de ayed as in Campanula rotundifolia and Vicia cracca in a northern
the ong run reduced degradabi ity of iter eads to increased immobi-
meadow community R m
Kanerva Ojanper
Manninen
or acce erated as in Lotus corniculatus in ca careous grass and Hayes
co embo ans enchytraeids and soi mites Schrader
Weige
which cou d further s ow decomposi on In
iza on of C and N in reca citrant soi frac ons as observed in soi s of
forests Ho mes Zak Pregitzer
King
and montane grass and
|
FUHRER ET AL.
FIGURE Diagram summarizing
main downstream processes affected
by O3 uptake in p ant communities
starting either with or without changes in
species composition box and u timate y
feeding back to atmospheric composition
Reduced itter input and root
exudation ower degradabi ity
a tered
microbiota and s ower decomposition
increased immobi ization of C and N
reduced nutrient avai abi ity
a tered
methanogenic activity in wet ands
reduced soi respiration and N avai abi ity
for denitrification
oss of water f ux
contro under drought
emission of
biogenic vo ati e organic compounds
which feeds back to p ants via a tered nutrient
produced with imp ica ons for the net exchange of CO2 between
avai abi ity However such efects are subt e and vary across sources
ecosystems and the atmosphere in agreement with Chapman King
of iter and environmenta condi ons
Pregitzer and Zak
Bassin et a
Decomposi on is oten posi ve y re ated to residue N content
Hobbie et a
but contras ng resu ts have been reported for
who conc uded that changes in soi C cy-
c ing are most ike y be brought about by changes in iter produc on
rather than qua ity The combina on of reduced p ant produc vity
the impact of O3 on iter N concentra on Whereas King Liu and
and ower re a ve biomass a oca on to roots Andersen
Aspinwa
the transfer of abi e C iter input to soi s Kanerva Pa oj rvi R m
reported that e evated O3 causes a genera decrease
in iter N concentra on others have found an increase Lindroth
et a
which may exp ain why iter decomposi on difers be-
tween species Wi iamson Mi s
Freeman
Decomposi on
of SOM by fungi decreases in e evated O3 Edwards
et a
Zak
Yue
Manninen
as discussed above Hence ess O3 stress could
posi ve y afect C inputs to soi s and thus contribute to the protecon or even to the increase in the terrestria sink for CO2 and consequent y to s owing g oba warming Ren et a
Co ins
more than decomposi on by bacteria Zhang et a
sugges ng that any efect of O3 on decomposi on cou d be ower in
Hun ngford
Lindroth
bacteria than in systems with ower produc vity where fungi and ess
Ho opainen
H ber e
Reduced C a oca on to roots impairs mycorrhiza symbiosis for instance in birch Kasurinen et a
beech Pritsch et a
hybrid aspen Edwards
Zak
hybrid arch Wang et a
and b ue wi d rye Elymus glaucus Yoshida Gamon
Andersen
Sitch Cox
Changed iter quan ty was associ-
ated with increased microbia respira on Hi strom Meehan Ke y
produc ve systems with soi communi es dominated by high y ac ve
ac ve bacteria dominate
imits
Kasurinen Kokko Gonza es Riikonen Vapaavuori
Niko ova Andersen B aschke Matyssek
but such an increase might be afected by other en-
vironmenta factors such as soi water avai abi ity Niko ova et a
Microbia biomass and soi respira on were not signiicant y
afected by O3 in the aspen open air exposure study Larson Zak
Sinsabaugh
As efects of O3 on p ant chemistry and eco ogica
Mycorrhizae are ubiquitous in a terrestria ecosystems and p ay an
interac ons are high y context and species speciic it remains dii-
essen a ro e in soi p ant nutrient exchange and via the turnover of
cu t to iden fy genera g oba paterns But from the imited evidence
externa myce ium for the transfer of root derived C to SOM Godbo d
it can be hypothesized that in spite of ower soi C inputs associated
et a
with reduced net primary produc on soi C stocks cou d increase due
Lower O3 stress wou d thus not on y beneit ectomy-
corrhiza diversity and richness Katani
Kraigher
Pao e
Or ovi
Grebenc
to ower degradabi ity of the iter and reduced microbia ac vity
but a so soi nutrient and C cyc ing par cu ar y in very
However data from suicient y ong O3 exposure studies are ex-
dry wet or co d habitats where p ant produc vity is imited by environ-
treme y rare and indings are variab e In experimenta forests O3 re-
menta condi ons such as those at high a tudes or in montane regions
duced the C content in woody ssues and in the near surface minera
soi Ta he m et a
| IMPLICATIONS FOR TERRESTRIAL
FEEDBACKS TO THE ATMOSPHERE
Zak Moran
Jastrow
and in more stab e SOM poo s Hofmocke
but data from a high e eva on grass and
experiment indicated that soi C remains unchanged possib y because
a ow C input was compensated by reduced turnover Vo k et a
as discussed above Simi ar y in a mode ing study the rep acement of
Lindroth
suggested that O3 afects be owground communi es
and ecosystems processes primari y via reduced quan
es of iter
sensi ve by more to erant p ant species or genotypes as a so discussed
above in a temperate deciduous forest ed to unchanged biomass
|
FUHRER ET AL.
C stocks in the ong term
Lerdau
Impacts of O3 on N2O emissions are even ess certain but N im-
years Wang Shugart Shuman
Hence it remains diicu t to iden fy genera g oba
paterns of efects of changing O3 exposure on ecosystem C storage
There is evidence that O3 stress afects CH emissions from wet-
mobi iza on due to decreased decomposi on not on y imits the avai abi ity of N for p ants as reviewed above but a so for the denitriier
community which cou d reduce the poten a for nitriica on and de-
ands simi ar to rice paddies for which combined data from three stud-
nitriica on He et a
ies suggested a reduc on by
this may be ess re evant in systems with a ow soi N status but high
equiva ent to around
in CH emission at an O3 eve M
ppb Tang Liu Zhu
Kobayashi
As
O3 does not direct y reach soi methanogenic or methanotrophic or-
Kou Cheng Zhu
Xie
A though
species diversity other factors might contribute to the direc on of
O3 efects on N2O emissions inc uding species richness Nik aus et a
ganisms it is ike y that a tered C a oca on to roots and reduced root
reported for grass and that N2O emission decreased with in-
exuda on modiies CH re ease via changes in the ac vity and func-
creasing species richness but increased with fer iza on and the frac-
ona diversity of soi microbia communi es Jones Freeman L oyd
Mi s
However there is evidence for an inhibitory efect of
O3 on CH emission in temperate and borea peat ands but the underying mechanisms remain unc ear M rsky et a
found s ight y
on of egumes in the community A dec ine in O3 sensi ve egumes
wou d thus be associated with reduced N2O emission
Overa
from the imited data we conc ude that the exchange of
important greenhouse gases is sensi ve to ecosystem O3 exposure
reduced CH emissions associated with increased microbia biomass
with most y inhibitory efects of higher O3 concentra ons but that the
resu ng from higher substrate avai abi ity Converse y Toet Ineson
issue warrants further inves ga ons
Peacock and Ashmore
observed a signiicant nega ve efect of
O3 in the absence of aboveground efects on dominant species such as
Eriophorum and Sphagnum and in disso ved organic C sugges ng that
be owground changes in rhizodeposi on root turnover and impor-
| FUTURE LEVELS OF O 3 EXPOSURE
tant y microbia community structure cou d be responsib e for reduced
Many of the efects of O3 reviewed here are ike y to be s ow and may
CH produc on Wi iamson Mi s Hayes Jones and Freeman
take decades to become detectab e depending on the future trajec-
found that the efect of O3 on CH emission varies with exposure
tory of O3 exposure in diferent ERs In order to more c ear y interpret
moderate short-term O3 exposures increases CH emissions whereas
current and future O3 exposure in re a on to evidence of efects we
higher exposures have nega ve or no signiicant efect A though the
grouped the ERs into
avai ab e data for temperate and borea peat ands are imited and the
within each major biome for
under ying mechanisms require further study changes in CH emis-
on the maximum of the four seasona va ues About
sions under increasing O3 in northern peat ands cou d provide import-
had a mean M
ant posi ve or nega ve feedbacks because of the invo vement of CH
UNECE was exceeded in at east one ER within each major biome The
in background O3 produc on and g oba warming West
highest mean M
Wi d et a
Fiore
major biomes The range of mean M
va ue above
va ues
is shown in Figure a based again
of the ERs
ppb and the cri ca eve set by the
va ues a above
ppb were found in temperate
forests and grass ands borea forests and tundra in contrast mean
FIGURE a Simu ated O3 exposure in
in G
terrestria ecoregions ERs grouped by biome b Change in simu ated O3 exposure
between
and
under RCP
and RCP
ERs are grouped by major biome and the number of ERs in each biome is shown within
brackets Exposure in a is based on the highest of the four seasona M va ues Max M
ppb in each ER The dashed ine in a represents
the M corresponding to the thresho d used to ca cu ate concentration based critica eve s according to the UNECE CLRTAP Va ues are
shown for the mean va ue within the biome circ es and the minimum maximum range of va ues in individua ERs within that biome Note that
the average for the major biomes smoothed out some of the arge exposure va ues shown in Figure for the individua G
biomes
|
M
FUHRER ET AL.
va ues in a the tropica and subtropica biomes were be ow
ppb The range in M
va ues within tundra and borea forests is
sma with no individua ER having a M
above
ppb these biomes
TABLE G
ecoregions showing either a an increase of over
ppb in simu ated M under RCP
or b a decrease of over
ppb in simu ated M under RCP
have the sma est number of ERs and a are in the NH in regions with
a re a ve y high spring me M
wide range typica y of
Figure
A other biomes show a
ppb in individua ERs arge y relect-
ing the contrasts between NH and SH shown in Figure
pe M
va ues for the six ERs in Mediterranean forests wood ands
and shrubs are in the range
Austra ia but are
ppb in South Africa Chi e and
ppb in Europe and
ppb in Ca ifornia
Figure b shows the simu ated changes in M
as the range of
RCP
in major biomes
diferences The data suggest that under
biome mean M
dec ines in
in the temperate and bo-
rea biomes which had the highest M
M
for exam-
va ues in
whi e mean
va ues for tropica subtropica and montane biomes tend to in-
crease Under RCP
sma
the changes in biome mean M
ranging from
of the
to
ppb Overa
and
exact y
a decrease
a biomes show an increase in mean M
with va ues ranging from
biomes M
under RCP
ERs show an increase in M
In contrast under RCP
are re a ve y
to
ppb and in three of the twe ve
increases in every ER
With the excep on of tundra and borea forests there is a wide
varia on in the change in M
RCP
and RCP
decreases in M
among ERs within biomes under both
with individua ERs showing both increases and
with a range of over
which show an increase of over
in Tab e
a whi e Tab e
ppb in M
in M
even under RCP
ppb in M
under RCP
are isted
b ists those showing a decrease of over
under RCP
above
ppb The individua ERs
The seven ERs with mode ed increases
ppb under RCP
a show increased O3 exposure
A are in forests and grass ands and in the region
ppb under RCP
show a decreased M
are a within North America
under RCP
which a so
covering temperate forests Mediterranean forests and desert biomes
The geographica distribu on of the changes in M
ERs under RCP
and RCP
is shown in Figure
seasona changes in M
are shown in Figure S
mentary Under RCP
M
exposure of
The four individua
RCP
a Biomes with increasing O3
Temperate broad eaf
and mixed forests
Western Hima ayan
temperate forests
9.0
Tropica and
subtropica
grass ands savannas
and shrub ands
Terai Duar savannas
and grass ands
11.1
Montane grass and
and shrub ands
Eastern Hima ayan
a pine meadows
7.6
12.3
Montane grass and
shrub ands
Tibetan P ateau
steppe
5.1
12.1
Temperate broad eaf
and mixed forests
Eastern Hima ayan
broad eaf and
coniferous forests
8.2
11.8
Tropica and
subtropica dry
broad eaf forests
Chota Nagpur dry
forests
11.5
11.5
Temperate coniferous
forests
Hengduan Shan
coniferous forests
3.7
10.2
b Biomes with decreasing O3
Temperate broad eaf
and mixed forests
Appa achian and
mixed mesophyte
forests
Mediterranean
forests wood ands
and shrubs
Ca ifornia chaparra
and wood ands
Temperate coniferous
forests
Southeastern
coniferous and
broad eaf forests
Temperate coniferous
forests
Sierra Nevada
coniferous forests
Deserts and xeric
shrub ands
Sonoran Baja
Deserts
covering part of India the Hima ayas and western China In contrast
the ive ERs with a decrease of over
RCP
ER
Va ues are the diference between
and
in M
va ues
and associated com-
increases between
and
in a -
between scenarios Under RCP
eight of the
biomes have re-
most a ERs with the greatest increases in South and East Asia on y ERs
duced mean va ues of M
in North America and parts of South East Asia show a decrease in ER
temperate forests the four biomes with an increase in mean M
exposure In contrast under RCP
main y at ow a tudes with a maximum increase of
M
exposures decrease through-
out most of the NH a though increases in M
are s
predicted in the
Hima ayas South Asia sub Saharan Africa and parts of La n America
Our mode simu a ons a ow us to par
on the changes in M
between the direct efects of changes in anthropogenic precursor
emissions and those of c imate change a one Tab e S
in M
ppb under RCP
are
ppb in tropica
and subtropica grass ands In contrast under RCP
biomes have an increased mean M
ppb in
of the
with va ues ranging from
to
ppb on y temperate coniferous forests and Mediterranean forests
show a very sma decrease due to changes in emissions
Increases
va ues due to c imate change a one occur in a biomes ex-
cept tundra and taiga in the range
with a maximum reduc on of
ppb under RCP
and
a re a ve y sma diference However
| INTERACTIONS WITH OTHER ABIOTIC
STRESSES IN A FUTURE CLIMATE
there are individua ERs in these biomes under both scenarios with
a decreased M
va ue atributab e to c imate change these are
Any assessment of the impacts of increasing O3 exposure in ERs
main y is and ERs or those c ose to the coast The efects of changes
needs to consider efects of O3 a ongside those of N deposi on and
in precursor emissions are more variab e both between biomes and
c imate change Simpson Arneth Mi s So berg
Udd ing
|
FUHRER ET AL.
et a
and p ant deve opment canopy and roots which can
Under O3 exposure
feedback to g oba warming Sitch et a
many species have sma er roots Grantz et a
thereby enhanc-
ing drought sensi vity Depending on species O3 might induce stomata c osure increased stomata opening or s uggishness Hoshika
Omasa
Pao e
Hoshika Katata et a
efect Mi s et a
or have no
Diferences in the speciic response to O3
of stomata contro may thus afect species composi on indirect y
through variab e soi moisture changes J ggi
Fuhrer
With
progressive g oba c imate change drought episodes are projected to
become more frequent in many wor d regions and subt e interac ons
of O3 with water lux regu a on may thereby inluence community dynamics and species dominance
Sun et a
suggested that oss of stomata sensi vity in a
Southern Appa achian forest in the USA wi not on y increase drought
severity in the region thus afec ng ecosystem hydro ogy and producvity but it wi a so have nega ve imp ica ons for low dependent
aqua c biota When occurring over suicient y arge areas high O3
efects on stomata cou d shit catchment water ba ances through a tered canopy water luxes Lombardozzi Levis Bonan Hess
McLaugh in Wu sch eger Sun
Nosa
Sparks
Sun et a
with possib e imp ica ons for the surface energy ba ance Super Vi
FIGURE Simu ated changes in O3 concentration between
and
as a resu t of the combination of c imate and emission
changes for RCP
a and RCP
b Maps show interpo ated
contours from the
horizonta reso ution output in terms of
the change in maximum M in G
ERs M changes outside the
G
areas are masked in gray
Guerau De Are ano
Kro
Some of the Asian regions such as the Tibetan p ateau have a so
been iden ied as a hot spot of c imate change impacts both in terms
of recent observed change Shen et a
Hardenberg
Giorgi
Provenza e
Turco Pa azzi von
and mode projec ons Difenbaugh
Combining projec ons for both mean changes in tem-
perature and precipita on with changes in the interannua variabi ity
and a ongside other environmenta changes Bobbink et a
sessed rates of N deposi on in
in the G
o d of
as-
and under three scenarios by
ERs comparing them with a generic efects thresh-
kg N ha
year
of these parameters simu a ons by Li et a
the end of the
st century
of G
revea ed that by
ERs wi face moderate to
pronounced c ima c changes re a ve to the change in the past ive
This ana ysis high ighted ERs in South East
decades with ERs at high northern a tudes being most exposed to
Asia as being under greatest threat In par cu ar a the seven regions
change fo owed by those in the Mediterranean Basin Amazon Basin
with the greatest increase in O3 exposure isted in Tab e a were iden-
East Africa and South Asia Hence some of the priority ERs which are
ied as having high future N deposi on Based on imp ementa on of
high ighted in our ana ysis as being of greatest threat from increased
current egis a on to
highest future N deposi on is projected
O3 exposure are a so at high risk from N deposi on and c imate
for Chota Nagpur dry forests and Terai Duar savannas and grass and
change emphasizing the need to assess the efects of O3 together
B eeker Hicks Dentener Ga oway and Erisman
with other key components of environmenta change
that by
ERs are projected
Increasing CO2 in contro ed environments or open top chambers
with forest and grass and ecosystems
oten ame iorates efects of O3 on eaf physio ogy growth and C a -
Ozone exposure is expected to interact with N addi on and or
support that they have fu y compensatory efects when co occurring
to receive
biodiversity hot spots and G
predicted
kg N ha
year
in Asia most exposed
oca on however evidence from ie d based experiments does not
warming as reviewed by Mi s et a
Efects of c imate change
Mi s et a
Combined responses to e evated temperature and
on stomata O3 lux and canopy uptake of O3 can be either direct for
O3 have rare y been studied even though some cri ca growth stages
examp e temperature CO2 and humidity efects on stomata conduc-
such as seed ini a on are sensi ve to both Kasurinen et a
tance or indirect via an inluence on soi water poten a and p ant de-
showed that O3 modiies the response of temperate si ver birch to
ve opment Harmens Mi s Emberson
warming but the magnitude of response varies among genotypes
Ashmore
Mi s et a
In addi on O3 itse f can for examp e modify the responses of
p ants to natura y occurring environmenta stresses such as drought
Hayes Wagg et a
Hayes Wi kinson
Hayes Wi iamson et a
Davies
Wi kinson
Mi s
Davies
via efects on the hormona contro of stomata func oning Dumont
A though the review by Mi s et a
provides informa on on
combined efects on p ant processes it e informa on is avai ab e on
combined efects of O3 and N on biodiversity To our know edge on y
one experiment has studied the ong term efects of combina ons of
O3 and N on biodiversity and p ant processes in perennia grass and
|
FUHRER ET AL.
under ie d condi ons Bassin et a
Vo k et a
Under
of both AOT
and stomata O3 uptake in stands of Schima superba
c ima ca y cha enging condi ons added N to ow background N
in subtropica China revea ed seasona exposures above current cri -
deposi on caused arge changes in the community composi on with
ca thresho ds Niu et a
sedges becoming par cu ar y dominant whi e added O3 had no efect
O3 risk in this region Because of the importance of c imate for eaf
on func ona group composi on and few efects on produc vity see
gas exchange our extrapo a on re ies on the assump on that under
thus conirming a poten a eco ogica
above In Mediterranean annua grass and N addi on cou d par a y
comparab e c ima c condi ons O3 lux and re ated O3 risk wou d be
counterba ance O3 efects on aboveground biomass in a mixture with
simi ar for the same genus in diferent ERs Intui ve y this cou d be
six annua pasture species but on y when the eve s of O3 were moder-
the case for temperate broad eaf and mixed forest that have been
ate but at the same me O3 reduced the fer iza on efect of higher
we researched in Europe and a so occur in the Eastern and Western
N avai abi ity Ca vete Sogo et a
Under the same condi ons
a signiicant interac on between O3 and N input was found where
O3 caused a dec ine in the frac on of egumes whi e forbs and grasses
proved to be to erant in contrast to the response to N Ca vete Sogo
et a
Mi s et a
Hima ayas for which re a ve y arge increases in O3 exposure by
is projected Tab e
Linking stomata conductance to p ant func-
ona types as done by Lin et a
cou d he p to extrapo ate O3
uptake as a proxy for O3 sensi vity across biomes
conc uded that it is not a ways straight-
Resi ience to O3 cou d be expected in the Eastern Hima ayan a pine
forward to predict the direc on of O3 efect once one or more inter-
meadows and on the meadows and steppe on the Tibetan P ateau simi-
ac ng factors are inc uded and that there is evidence of pping points
ar to observa ons in European studies see above hence increased O3
occurring where there is a shit from one factor being dominant to
exposure projected for these higher a tude ERs of Asia Tab e
another This shit can be dynamic and change during the growing sea-
eco ogica y be ess re evant The high O3 sensi vity of annua grass-
wou d
son Both responses to gradua changes in po utants and c imate and
ands is ike y conined to Mediterranean regions of Europe and parts
those under extreme weather events require further study
of Ca ifornia where they have been the subjects of extensive research
| EXTRAPOLATION
The majority of experimenta studies reviewed above were carried out
| CONCLUSION
IMPLICATIONS OF DIFFERENT
CLIMATE AND AIR POLLUTION POLICIES
in temperate or Mediterranean c imates of the NH Hence any g oba
assessment of current and future O3 risks re ies on extrapo a on from
In spite of the imited direct evidence for O3 efects on terrestria biodi-
imited experimenta data We thus dis nguish predic ons of impacts
versity and of suicient experimenta and observa ona data from the
in those biomes in which the impacts of O3 have hard y been inves -
fu g oba range of ERs with high conserva on va ue the informa on
gated at a
e g tropica and subtropica forests or deserts and xeric
presented in this study eads us to conc ude that O3 eve s are sui-
shrub ands from those ERs within biomes that have been we studied
cient y high today or wi become so in the future to exert a arge sca e
in Europe and North America e g broad eaf forests Mediterranean
inluence on community composi on at diferent trophic eve s and
grass ands and montane grass ands There is some evidence of com-
to a ter nutrient and C cyc ing with possib e feedbacks to the c imate
parab e responses within genus between the two regions for exam-
Know edge of the impacts of high O3 exposures in temperate forests is
p e Hosika Watanabe et a
re a ve y strong based primari y on work in North America and Europe
reported simi ar efects of O3 on
stomata behavior of European and Japanese beech species whi e Hu
and there is a so a good understanding of O3 impacts on ecosystem
et a
found that pop ar c ones grown in China were comparab e
structure and dynamics in temperate grass ands and Mediterranean
in sensi vity to European beech and birch However few such studies
systems primari y from work in Europe This provides a basis for ex-
providing a direct comparison of sensi vity have yet been reported
Our assessment of the O3 exposure of ERs used a concentra on
pec ng c ear eco ogica beneits within these biomes from reduced O3
exposures where these are simu ated under the c imate stabi iza on
based exposure index There is increasing evidence that O3 efects are
po icy represented by RCP
beter re ated to the lux through the stomata into the eaves Anav
s ow and may take decades to become detectab e
et a
Mi s Hayes et a
Mi s P eije et a
However such changes are ike y to be
and
Our CESM simu a ons a so revea important diferences in O3
hence our assessment of the g oba efects shou d consider stomata
trajectories both between biomes and between individua ERs Our
conductance as a key factor inluencing the lux into and hence efect
ana ysis high ights a contrast between ERs in North America where
on diferent species To date no g oba assessment based on O3 lux
decreased exposure is predicted under both RCP
is avai ab e a though tota dry deposi on of O3 has been mode ed
those in South and centra Asia where further increases in exposures
Hardacre Wi d and Emberson
are expected under both RCP
predicted that at the same at-
mospheric concentra on O3 dry deposi on was greater to tropica
and RCP
and RCP
and
Thus even the emission
projec ons associated with air qua ity and c imate stabi iza on po i-
forests than to deciduous or coniferous forests with deposi on to
cies represented in RCP
tundra and deserts being the owest On this basis tropica and sub-
risks in many ERs which are cri ca contributors to g oba biodiver-
do not ead to a reduc on in eco ogica O3
tropica forests may be re a ve y sensi ve to O3 a though not a of the
sity Furthermore under the RCP
mode ed dry deposi on wou d be stomata uptake But measurements
c imate O3 concentra ons are ike y to be signiicant y higher in the
scenario that does not stabi ize
|
FUHRER ET AL.
majority of ERs especia y in Asia where eco ogica consequences are
unc ear Koike et a
Unfortunate y the ERs where the greatest increases in O3 levels are
projected have not been inves gated for possib e O3 efects and thus
the imp ica ons of these simu ated trajectories are diicu t to predict
Neverthe ess based on the evidence from Europe and North America in
moist ERs such as forests in the Western and Eastern Hima ayas on the
Eastern Deccan P ateau in India or the Terai Duar tropica and subtropica savanna and grass ands at the base of the Hima ayas future increases
in O3 stress cou d a ter C and N cyc ing and change inter and intraspeciic diversity In contrast from the evidence of resi ience in montane
grass ands in Europe we predict that the Hima ayan grass ands are at
ower risk from increasing O3 Given the poten a for nega ve efects in
these species rich systems more research is urgent y needed
Whether or not observed species shits in temperate forests of North
America can be extrapo ated further for examp e to forests in tropica
and subtropica regions remains very uncertain However because the
ini a biochemica and physio ogica reac ons caused by excess O3 uptake are ike y to be universa the patern of downstream efects on
p ants host pest interac ons and soi microbiota may be common to
a biomes This suggests that impacts on diversity at diferent trophic
eve s with a range of poten a y nega ve eco ogica consequences are
ike y in ERs with increasing O3 exposures even if the precise nature and
the extent of these impacts cannot be predicted and interac ons with
other g oba change factors such as N input and c imate change are important Fina y the evidence of a tered trace gas luxes under diferent
O3 trajectories projec ons deserves more aten on as the consequent
changes in c imate forcing have imp ica ons for future assessments of
cobeneits between c imate and air po u on mi ga on strategies
ACKNOWLE DGME NTS
UK Defra contract AQ
NERC and the UN LRTAP Conven on
are thanked for their support The CESM simu a ons were supported
by the US Na ona Park Service grant H
J
and the US Na ona Science Founda on AGS
The CESM
project is supported by the Na ona Science Founda on and the
Oice of Science BER of the US Department of Energy Compu ng
resources were provided by the C imate Simu a on Laboratory at
NCAR s Computa ona and Informa on Systems Laboratory CISL
sponsored by the Na ona Science Founda on and other agencies
The authors thank N Buchmann C Evans P B cker and J Dauber
for their he pfu comments on an ear ier drat of this text
CO NFLICT OF INTERE ST
None dec ared
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Current and future ozone risks to g oba
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