April 2010: Deepwater Horizon, Golf of Mexico
At approximately 9:45 pm, 20th April 2010, high- pressure methane gas from the well expanded
into the drilling riser and rose into the drilling rig, where it ignited and exploded.
Following the explosion and sinking of the Deepwater Horizon oil rig, which claimed 11 lives, a
sea-floor oil gusher flowed for 87 days. The total discharge is estimated at 780 000 m3.
As of February 2013, criminal and civil settlements and payments to a trust fund had cost BP
$42.2 billion.
Safety in Atlântic…
Pirate Attack Saudi Super-Tank seized off Kenian Cost
16th November 2008
P & G e os novos desafios do conhecimento...
Reservatórios Convencionais
volumes reduzidos,
exploração quasi imediata
Investimentos crescentes,
elevada tecnologia,
intensivo em conhecimento
e novas competências
Reservatórios Não
Convencionais
volumes elevados,
exploração complexa
Technological trends: uncertainty and complexity
subsea versus surface technology changing paradigms for oil and gas exploration
DISRUPTIVE
CONTINUITY
Which technology forecast for deep sea Oil&Gas?
“Oil & Gas” – “Subsea to Beach”
New generation of
Future “FPSO”
Process Equipment
Subsea
Processing
Autonomous
Underwater Vehicle
Subsea
Power Distribution
Riserless Drilling
Nanomaterials
Nanoparticles
Laser Drilling
Source: Petrobras
INL Research areas
1)NANOMEDICINE:
Drug Delivery systems, molecular diagnosis systems and chips, cell
therapies, imaging solutions, regenerative materials, biomolecular
labels, synaptic process monitoring, tissue engineering, etc
2) ENVIRONMENT MONITORING AND FOOD
CONTROL:
Nanotechnology applied to food industry, food safety and
environmental control. Water and Soil control, air pollution
monitoring, artificial nanopore sensors, lab-on-a-chip technologies,
Smart Packaging and labels, food control process, biosensing
technologies,
3) NANOELECTRONICS & ENERGY:
NEMS/MEMS, Spintronics, Photonics, Nanofluidics, Molecular
electronics, Organic electronics, Energy harvesting devices,
nanostructured materials for energy storage and conversion, solar
cells, Nanotechnologies to support the previous research areas
4) NANOMANIPULATION:
Single molecule/atom manipulation, molecular motors,
nanotwezzers, self assembly controlled processes of building
blocks for nanodevices.
FPSO Environmental Management System: Environmental Aspects
From Automation to “i-Fields”
Evolving Processes of Technical Change
TECHNOLOGIES
more technologies to produce
each product
PROCESSES
PRODUCT
TECHNOLOGY
more products produced from a
given technology
Sources: von Tunzelmann (1999); Couto et al (2012)
PROCESSES
PRODUCTS
Emerging interactions...
Source: BIPE
to
from
ICTs
materials
biotech
energy
ICTs
materials
•Telematics
•Automation
•Computers
•Semiconductors
•Superconduct.
biotech
energy
•Biosensors
•Biochips
•Photovoltaic
applications
•Computer based •New alloys
design of new
•Ceramics and
materials
composits
•Bio-leaching
•Biological ore
processing
•Power lasers
•Instrumental
analysis of dna
sequences
•Membranes
•Biocompatible
materials
•Recombin. DNA
•New drugs
•Enzymatic
Synthesis
•Batteries
•Pacemakers
•Artificial Heart
•Supervision of
energy processes
•Robotics
•Security systems
•Photovoltaic
materials
•Fuel cells
•Superconductor
•New energy
biomass
•New reactors
•Nuclear fusion
Patterns of technical change
Source: Branscomb,Morse & Roberts (2001): www.atp.nist.gov/eao/gcr_787.pdf
TECHNOLOGY discontinuity
radical
Increasing
uncertainty
New
Existing
evolutionary
Existing
leverage base
New
MARKET
Nathan Rosenberg (2001):
“uncertainty in the realms of both science and
technology ... have enormously important
consequences and a main concern is how
organisations and incentives migth be modified to
accommodate these uncertainties.”
Source: OECD(2001), “Social Sciences and Innovation”
Chris Freeman (2001):
“There is an irreducible uncertainty about future
political, economic and market developments
....,technological innovations may actually increase
it, since they add to the dimensions of general
business uncertainty, the dimension of technological
uncertainty.”
Source: SPRU (2001)
Stakeholder involvement:
the IRGC risk governance framework
IRGC RISK GOVERNANCE FRAMEWORK
Management Sphere:
Decision on & Implementation of Actions
3
Assessment Sphere:
Generation of Knowledge
Pre-Assessment
Pre-Assessment:
Risk Management Strategy:
•
•
•
•
 routine-based
 risk-informed/robustnessfocussed
 precaution-based/resiliencefocussed
 discourse-based
Problem Framing
Early Warning
Screening
Determination of Scientific Conventions
Risk Management
Risk Management
Risk Appraisal
Risk Appraisal:
Implementation
• Option Realisation
• Monitoring & Control
• Feedback from Risk Mgmt. Practice
Risk Assessment
• Hazard Identification & Estimation
• Exposure & Vulnerability Assessment
• Risk Estimation
Communication
Concern Assessment
• Risk Perceptions
• Social Concerns
• Socio-Economic Impacts
Decision Making
• Option Identification & Generation
• Option Assessment
• Option Evaluation & Selection
Tolerability & Acceptability Judgement
Risk Evaluation
• Judging the Tolerability & Acceptability
• Need for Risk
Reduction Measures
2
Risk judged:
 acceptable
 tolerable
 intolerable
Risk Characterisation
• Risk Profile
• Judgement of the
Seriousness of Risk
• Conclusions & Risk
Reduction Options
1
Knowledge Challenge:
 Complexity
 Uncertainty
 Ambiguity