Preparing ports for the storm:
How can seaports prepare for
sea-level rise?
Robert J. Nicholls and Susan Hanson
University of Southampton, UK
Acknowledgement: Shipping in Changing Climates (EP/K039253/1)
www.lowcarbonshipping.co.uk
ESPO-Conference Barcelona 2017
Key Coastal Trends

Population
o Growing coastal population (double global trends)
o Urbanising coastal zone (new residents are urban)
o Increasing tourism, recreation and retirement

Increasing assets and infrastructure linked to population and wealth trends

Subsiding, densely-populated deltas and alluvial plains, especially in urban areas subject to drainage and
groundwater withdrawal

Globalisation of trade and international shipping routes

Degrading coastal habitats and declining ecosystem services, including natural protection

Climate change and sea-level rise

A reactive approach to adaptation

Increasingly costly coastal disasters due to climatic and non-climatic (e.g., tsunami) causes (integrative symptom
of the above?)
Key Coastal Trends

Population
o Growing coastal population (double global trends)
o Urbanising coastal zone (new residents are urban)
o Increasing tourism, recreation and retirement

Increasing assets and infrastructure linked to population and wealth trends

Subsiding, densely-populated deltas and alluvial plains, especially in urban areas subject to drainage and
groundwater withdrawal

Globalisation of trade and international shipping routes

Degrading coastal habitats and declining ecosystem services, including natural protection

Climate change and sea-level rise

A reactive approach to adaptation

Increasingly costly coastal disasters due to climatic and non-climatic (e.g., tsunami) causes (integrative
symptom of the above?)
Flooding of Port of Immingham, UK
5/6 December 2013
ESPO-Conference Barcelona 2017
Global vs. Relative (Local) Sea-Level Rise
Source: Figure 13.27 -- Chapter 13 IPCC AR5 WG1 Report
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Number of events per 100
years
Change in Return Period of
present 100-year event
1000
New York
800
Shanghai
Kolkata
600
400
200
0
0
0.5
1
Relative Sea-Level Rise (m)
Potential effect of rising (relative) sea levels
Port subsidence and response due to the 2011 Japanese Earthquake
(Courtesy of Dr Miguel Esteban,
University of Tokyo)
ESPO-Conference Barcelona 2017
Shipping in Changing Climates
www.lowcarbonshipping.co.uk
Examining shipping in a 2oC and 4oC warmer world:
•
•
•
•
Emission control technologies
Legislation and regulation
Changes in trade demand to 2050 including climate implications
Consequences of climate change such as relative sea-level rise
ESPO-Conference Barcelona 2017
Shipping in Changing Climates
www.lowcarbonshipping.co.uk
• High Road scenario (4⁰C)
Climate projection - based on RCP8.5 high GHG emissions
Population projection – strong growth (based on SSP5-conventional)
Trade narrative – high economic growth, reliant on fossil fuels, strongly
globalised market
• Green Road scenario (2⁰C)
Climate projection - based on RCP2.6 low GHG emissions
Population projection – lower growth (based on SSP1-sustainability)
Trade narrative – med-high economic growth, move away from fossil fuels,
connected markets, regional production
ESPO-Conference Barcelona 2017
Changes to ports – Method
Increased area demand (growing trade) and increased sea level impacts
Global methodology
flow chart to
determine costs for
adaptation of 2010
areas to relative sealevel rise and building
of additional areas
ESPO-Conference Barcelona 2017
Global area demand (km2) to 2050
High Road (4⁰C)
Green Road (2⁰C)
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Regional port costs (US$ million)
from 2010 to 2050
HR – High Road
GR – Green Road
New build >95% of
costs in all cases
Post-2050
adaptation costs
probably grow
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National variation in demand for new port area
High Road 4⁰C scenario (2010-2050)
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Sea-level rise impacts (4⁰C scenario)
Reduction in design standard for port protection infrastructure by 2100
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Conclusions
• Sea-level rise threatens increased flooding and storm damage of all port
areas.
• The risk is rising regardless of the scenario: the uncertainty is the rate of
increase.
• There are several responses:
•
•
•
•
Maximise flood warning and preparedness – be ready for adverse situations.
Include freeboard and flexibility in new port build.
Consider how to upgrade new ports, especially during renewal phases.
Look wider than the port – flooding may disrupt the networks within which
the port sits – adaptation needs to be joined up with the port’s neighbours.
• Consider other climate issues – wind, waves, etc.
ESPO-Conference Barcelona 2017
Preparing ports for the storm:
How can seaports prepare for
sea-level rise?
Robert J. Nicholls and Susan Hanson
University of Southampton, UK
Acknowledgement: Shipping in Changing Climates (EP/K039253/1)
www.lowcarbonshipping.co.uk
ESPO-Conference Barcelona 2017