Monthly bulletin
Monthly bulletin
June 2017
VDMA | Economic and statistic affairs
Incoming orders in Germany
Mechanical engineering
Volume index 2010 = 100
Domestic
Foreign
170
160
150
140
130
120
110
100
90
80
70
2008
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
12-month moving average
Non-adjusted indices
Monthly bulletin
Source: VDMA
2009
Demand from euro countries remains
dynamic
Incoming orders in mechanical engineering in
April fell short of the previous year’s level by 3
percent in real terms, while domestic orders
dropped by 15 percent. The decline has
nothing to do with an economic slump, but is
largely attributable to a base effect: Thanks to
several business deals involving large
industrial plants, April 2016 was the strongest
month of last year. Concerning orders from
abroad, the April results painted a
differentiated picture. While demand from noneuro countries saw growth of 1 percent, orders
from EU partner countries increased
significantly by 14 percent.
VDMA | Economic and statistic affairs
Page 2 | June 2017
Production of German mechanical engineering
Volume index 2010=100
12-months moving average
Non-adjusted indices
140
130
120
110
100
90
80
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
During the first three months of the year,
production was 4.5 percent higher, according
to preliminary calculations, than the previous
year. But it must also be noted that the first
quarter had three more working days than the
first quarter 2016. However, a workday effect
will pose a burden on the rate of change for
production over the course of the year. In total,
2017 has three workdays less than 2016. The
forecast made by VDMA economists in
October 2016 for 2017 predicts a one percent
growth in production in real terms. Another
plus is the good business climate that prevails
almost everywhere in the world. However,
there are also several burdensome factors.
Nonetheless, VDMA stands by its forecast.
Monthly bulletin
Source: Federal Stat. Office Germany, VDMA
VDMA | Economic and statistic affairs
Page 3 | June 2017
Capacity utilization in
German mechanical engineering
In percent of full capacity level of output
95
50%-scatter band*
90
mean value: 85,9
85
80
75
At 85.6 percent, the capacity utilization in April
fell slightly short of the long-term industry
average. This means the utilization rate has
risen slightly since October 2016 after it had
stagnated at the bottom end of a still-tolerable
level since the end of 2012, with an exception
in the fall of 2014. This development is in line
with the production curve, since it also
displayed a moderate upward tendency since
the fall of last year. The absolute low in the
period since 2012 was recorded in July 2016
at 83.3 percent, the highest result was 88.0
percent in April 2012.
70
65
2008
2009
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
*) 50% of all observations (since 1995) are located within a scatter band of 84,1 to 88,9 %.
Monthly bulletin
Source: ifo-Institut, VDMA
2010
VDMA | Economic and statistic affairs
Page 4 | June 2017
Employees in German mechanical engineering
In thousand
In March employment went up by another
4'000 to now 1.011 million. This is a 0.5
percent growth yoy and constitutes a stronger
seasonal pick-up in labor demand than the
year before. Due to a change in classification
of a production entity the employment figure
has been downsized by more than 9'000
employees in 2016. The revised figures for the
year 2016 are therefore no more comparable
to former years.
1040
1020
1000
980
960
940
920
900
880
2008
2009
2010
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016*
2017
*) Due to a change in classification 2016 not comparable to previous years
Employees in units with 50+ employees
Monthly bulletin
Source: Federal Stat. Office Germany, VDMA
2011
VDMA | Economic and statistic affairs
Page 5 | June 2017
German machine export
Region (relevance*)
percent change to previous year
Jan. - March 2017
Jan. - December 2016
East Asia (14.2)
Australia-Oceania (1.0)
South-East Asia (3.1)
Other Europe (10.6)
Central a. South Asia (2.7)
Africa (3.1)
North America (11.9)
Ø Jan. - March 2017:
6% (real 4.8%)
Latin America (4.2)
EU-28 (46.3)
Near and Middle East (3.1)
-15
-10
0
5
10
15
20
*) Share in total machinery export in percent.
Monthly bulletin
Source: Federal Statistical Office Germany, VDMA
-5
In March 2017, German machinery exports
exceeded the previous year’s result by 7.6
percent. Preliminary figures for the first quarter
show a plus of 6 percent. Export business with
the two most important export markets for the
German mechanical engineering sector, USA
(plus 7.6 percent) and China (plus 15.5
percent), was above average. Positive:
Deliveries to Russia, Mexico, India, South
Korea and Japan were also significantly higher
than in the previous year. Deliveries to EU
countries increased by 2.1 percent. However,
preliminary data indicates that deliveries to
France, Italy, the Netherlands, Poland and
Hungary fell short of the previous year’s
figures. During the past few years, late reports
amounting to 5 percentage points were
regularly received from EU countries, which
means that growth may indeed be possible
following respective corrections.
VDMA | Economic and statistic affairs
Page 6 | June 2017
Incoming orders in Germany
for selected subsectors
Real changes in percent, February - April 2017/2016
Agricultural machinery
Process plant and equipment
Robotics and automation
Power transmission engineering
Fluid power equipment
Plastics and rubber machinery
Materials handling technology
Printing and paper technology
Valves and fittings
Constr. equipment and building material machines
Machine tools
Precision tools
Air-handling technology
Food processing machinery and packaging machinery
Power Systems
-60
In the last three statistically verifiable months
(February – April 2017), 20 of the 28
subsectors (which are taken into account
separately in the VDMA incoming order
statistics) experienced an increase compared
to the previous year. Four subsectors recorded
growth of 30 percent and more. These include
metallurgical plants and rolling mills,
agricultural machinery, process plant and
equipment and mining. Food processing and
packaging machinery, foundry machinery and
Power Systems (turbines), on the other hand,
suffered losses of 10 percent or more.
Ø total -1%
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
Monthly bulletin
Source: VDMA
VDMA | Economic and statistic affairs
Page 7 | June 2017
Business situation and expectations
Manufacturing industry in Germany
Balance of positive-negative replies, seasonally adjusted
Current assessment
In manufacturing the Ifo-business climateindex rose significantly. Assessments of the
current business situation improved, reaching
their highest level since July 2011. Business
expectations are also far more optimistic than
last month. Capital goods manufacturers in
particular reported very good ongoing business
and their order books are filling up.
6-month expectations
60
40
20
0
-20
-40
-60
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
Monthly bulletin
Source: ifo-Institut, VDMA
VDMA | Economic and statistic affairs
Page 8 | June 2017
Economic situation of German mechanical engineering
b) times series
a) latest
Subject
Period
Unit
Turnover
Jan.-March
billion EUR
Production (preliminary)
Jan.-March
Index
Exports
Jan.-March
billion EUR
37,4
39,7
6,0
4,8
Imports
Jan.-March
billion EUR
16,2
16,6
2,4
2,2
Incoming orders
2016
2017
48,8
51,5
%-Change
2017/2016
5,7
Subject
Unit
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
billion EUR
200,5
206,9
205,8
212,1
217,8
214,6
15,7
3,2
-0,5
3,1
2,7
-1,5
4,6
4,5
Turnover
1
(%-change yoy)
percent
Exports
billion EUR
142,2
149,4
149,0
151,5
155,5
155,9
percent
75,4
76,8
76,4
76,3
77,3
76,7
Share of world trade 3 percent
16,3
15,9
16,3
16,1
15,4
Export share
Index
Total
Jan.-April
2
1
Domestic
Foreign
Jan.-April
Jan.-April
2
3
1
1
EURO partner countries
Jan.-April
15
14
Non EURO countries
Jan.-April
-1
-3
Orders on hand
February
Month
Employees
March
Thousand
Capacity utilization
April
percent
5,8
5,9
1006
1011
0,5
84,1
85,6
1,8
2
Production
real Index
(%-change yoy)
percent
12,7
1,2
-1,2
1,1
0,8
0,1
Employees 4
Thousand
948
978
993
1008
1012
1.008
(%-change yoy)
percent
3,8
3,2
1,6
1,5
*) Figures for 2016 has not yet been revised.
0,4 .
Source: Federal Statistical Office, VDM A
1) Data for kind-of-activity units with 50 and more employees according to WZ 2008 (28;3312;3320).
2) Exports in per cent of production.
Monthly bulletin
Price indices
Index
3) German share of machine trade of top machinery supplier countries.
Producer price index
April
0,9
Export price index
April
1,3
Import price index
April
0,8
Subject
Period
Short-time workers
October
Unit
2015
Thousand
12
2016
8
%-Change
2016/2015
nominal
4) Yearly average; Only full-time workers, without temporary staffing; Data for kind-of-activity units with 50 and more employees
according to WZ 2008 (28;3312;3320).
real
-36,2
Source: Bundesagent ur f ür Arbeit , if o-Inst it ut , Fed. St at ist ical Of f ice Germany, VDM A
VDMA | Economic and statistic affairs
Page 9 | June 2017
Dr. Ralph Wiechers
Contact.
VDMA Volkswirtschaft und Statistik
Lyoner Str. 18
60528 Frankfurt
Monthly bulletin
Phone +49 69 6603-1371
E-mail [email protected]
VDMA | Economic and statistic affairs
Page 10 | June 2017