The Future of US Foreign Policy
And how Obama has dealt with it
Short Term
Iraq: Out
Afghanistan:
In and eventually out
Middle East Turmoil
Balancing US interests
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counterterrorism
human rights and democracy
OIL
alliance with Israel
Policies
• Encouraging Egyptian military to oust
Mubarak
• Trying to salvage Yemeni and Bahraini
leaders, but encouraging them to start
transition as protests continue
• Bombing Libya
• Diplomacy with Syria: many
implications
• Saudi Arabia: silence
Longer Term
US Goals
• Preservation of US Leadership
• Democratization
• Global Free market capitalism
• Stable change where change is
necessary
Trends and Transformations?
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Unipolarity: Can it Last
New Cold War
Multipolarity
Leadership, not Dominance
Middle Power Challenges
Globalization: Interdependence
Decline of Nation-State Power
Uncertainties
1. Unipolarity
• Can it Last?
• It never has before
US Wealth
See World Bank:
http://siteresources.worldbank.org/DATASTATISTICS/Resources/GDP.pdf
Global Military Expenditures
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Country
World
United States
Rest-of-World
China
Russia
France
United Kingdom
Japan
Germany
Italy
South Korea
India
Saudi Arabia
Australia
North Korea
Iran
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From: http://www.globalsecurity.org/military/world/spending.htm
Military spending
$1100 billion
$623 billion
$500 billion
$65.0 billion
$50.0 billion
$45.0 billion
$42.8 billion
$41.75 billion
$35.1 billion
$28.2 billion
$21.1 billion
$19.0 billion
$18.0 billion
$16.9 billion
$5.0 billion
$4.3 billion
Budget Period
2004 est.
FY08
2004 est.
2004
2005
2005 est.
2007
2003
2003
2003 est.
2005 est.
2005 est.
2006
FY02
2003 est.
2. New Cold War
• One nation catches up to the US
• Rising Challenger
• Declining hegemon
US vs. China
• President Obama and President Hu
Great Power Challenges
• Rival Power
• Soft Authoritarian Ideology
3. Multipolarity
• Many nations catch up to the US
• The US falls back to the pack
A Multipolar System
US
Russia
Japan
EU
China
India
Or Another Bipolar System
US India
Russia China
Sending a Message?
Obama Administration’s first state dinner
• Michelle Obama and Indian PM Singh
Trips to Asia
2009
2010
4. Leadership, not Dominance
G-20
5. Middle Power Challenges
• Iranian power
6. Globalization:
Interdependence: conflict won’t become war
Welcome to China
Welcome to the US
Welcome to New York
7. Decline of Nation-State Power
• The Nation-State System evolves
– Governments weaken
• Financial Flows that governments can’t
control
• Organizations that governments can’t
control or defend themselves against
Developing Asia Countries Net Private Capital Flows
(from Commonwealth Treasury, Australia, Dr Ken Henry, Restoring Growth to the East Asian Region, 2002,
http://www.treasury.gov.au/documents/265/HTML/docshell.asp?URL=default.asp
US GDP Growth
21st Century Challenges
Global Terrorism: 9/11
Regional Instability: alShabab in Somalia
AQAM Attacks 1995-2011
Transnational Organized Crime:
Mexico vs. Drug Cartels
source:http://www.utexas.edu/international/ioc/safety_updates.html
8. Uncertainties
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Climate Change
Energy
Food
Population
Over-urbanization
Migration
And…