S-Curve: Adoption rates of new transport technology
Bill Kaye-Blake, PwC
Tony Wolken, PwC
Michael Dickson, PwC
Kirsten Curry, PwC
Project framework
Interaction of people &
goods, infrastructure,
transport modes and
technology make up the
transport sector
People & Goods
Move around for
business, leisure,
consumption, etc
Modes
Many different modes
available
Infrastructure
Transport
The ‘plumbing’ of the
transport system
Technology
Changing the way
transport is used and
delivered
S-curve: Adoption rates of new transport technology
PwC
November 2016
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Part 1
Technology focus on the transport sector
S-curve: Adoption rates of new transport technology
PwC
November 2016
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Technology + Modes
• Standard cars and trucks have
an increasing level of technology
being added to them
- Telematics, park assist, etc
• But there are significant changes
in the pipeline to the current
fleet of vehicles
- Autonomous and electric cars,
E-bikes
• Determined by entrepreneurs or
innovators
• Influenced by policy
References: Lavasani, Jin and Du (2016), Peine, van Cooen and Nevan (2016), Gardner, Quezada and Paevere (2011).
S-curve: Adoption rates of new transport technology
PwC
November 2016
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Technology + Infrastructure
• Technology can increase
efficiency and safety of
infrastructure
• However, much of the
system is largely fixed
• Costly to increase capacity,
and make alterations
• Determined by authorities
on best available
information
References: Wiesenthal et al. (2011), Kopp (2010), Rode et al. (2015).
S-curve: Adoption rates of new transport technology
PwC
November 2016
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Technology + People
• Technology is affecting
human interactions with
the transport system
• Changing the way transport
services are delivered in the
commercial sector
• Mapping software, real
time traffic updates,
ridesharing for personal
travel
• Determined by technology
companies, transport
companies, individuals and
government (as user)
References: Martin, Shaheen and Lidicker (2010), Kodransky and Lewenstein (2014).
S-curve: Adoption rates of new transport technology
PwC
November 2016
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Part 2
Question: How quickly will new technologies
be adopted?
S-curve: Adoption rates of new transport technology
PwC
November 2016
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Bass diffusion models to explain adoption
S-Curve: Bass diffusion
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
Cumulative adopters
16
18
20
22
24
26
28
30
New adopters (RHS)
References: Bass (1969), Bass, Krishnan and Jain (1994).
S-curve: Adoption rates of new transport technology
PwC
November 2016
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Adoption depends on technology characteristics
01
Compatibility
Relative advantage
02
03
Trialability
Complexity
04
05
S-curve: Adoption rates of new transport technology
PwC
Observability
November 2016
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Using our Bass diffusion model
Example: parameters from the literature to compare hybrid vehicles
Time to reach market potential
Millions
(using parameters from Cordill (2012)
4.0
3.5
3.0
2.5
2.0
1.5
1.0
0.5
0.0
1
2
3
4
Toyota Prius Hybrid
S-curve: Adoption rates of new transport technology
PwC
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6
7
8
9
Honda Civic Hybrid
10
11
12
13
14
15
Ford Escape Hybrid
November 2016
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Back to the system level
Next step: Think about
technology diffusion and
impacts on transport
system
People & Goods
Move around for
business, leisure,
consumption, etc
Modes
Many different modes
available
Infrastructure
Transport
The ‘plumbing’ of the
transport system
Technology
Changing the way
transport is used and
delivered
S-curve: Adoption rates of new transport technology
PwC
November 2016
11
Thanks!
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