Who Makes The
Pros?
What are the chances?
What are the odds?
 What good young athlete doesn't dream of playing pro
sports? The allure is intoxicating, especially for the
talented, and it can warp judgment.
 In fact, high school players who reach the pros are
almost as rare as lottery winners, so virtually every
student-athlete should have a backup: an education.
That's a key message of the movie Coach Carter, yet
it's easy to ignore in a society that focuses more on
immediate gains than enduring ones.
 So what are the probabilities of a pro career? Below
are some numbers, from the NCAA. They show the
chance of getting drafted by a major league team,
not of playing, so the true odds are even lower:
Men’s Basketball
 High school senior players who go on to play
NCAA men's basketball: Less than one in 35,
or 2.9 percent.
 NCAA senior players drafted by an NBA team:
Less than one in 75, or 1.3 percent.
 High school senior players eventually drafted
by an NBA team: About three in 10,000, or 0.03
percent.
 That's roughly the chance of getting four of a
kind in the first round of draw poker.
Women’s Basketball
 High school senior players who go on to play
NCAA women's basketball: About three in 100,
or 3.1 percent.
 NCAA senior players drafted by a WNBA team:
About one in 100, or 1.0 percent.
 High school senior players eventually drafted
by a WNBA team: About one in 5,000, or 0.02
percent.
 That's the chance that a killer asteroid will
destroy civilization in the next century,
according to Princeton astronomers.
Football
 High school senior players who go on to play
NCAA men's football: About one in 17, or 5.8
percent.
 NCAA senior players drafted by an NFL team:
About one in 50, or 2.0 percent.
 High school senior players eventually drafted
by an NFL team: About nine in 10,000, or 0.09
percent.
 That's about the chance you have an IQ above
150, as measured by the Stanford-Binet test.
The average IQ of Ph.D. students is 130.
Baseball
 High school senior players who go on to play NCAA men`s baseball:
Less than three in 50, or 5.6 percent
 NCAA senior players drafted by a Major League Baseball (MLB)
team: Less than eleven in 100, or 10.5 percent.
 High school senior players eventually drafted by an MLB team:
About one in 200, or 0.5 percent.
 Drafted baseball players almost always go to a minor league
team. These teams abound; there are over 150 of them,
compared to 30 in the majors. The big leagues have 750 players,
yet the 2004 draft alone took 1,500.
 Hence some estimate that only one in 33 minor leaguers ever
makes it to the pros. If that's correct, the chance of a high school
player making the big leagues is one in 6,600, or 0.015 percent.
 That's roughly the chance of a thief guessing your PIN number on
the first try.
Men’s Ice Hockey
 High school senior players who go on to play
NCAA men's ice hockey: Less than thirteen in
100, or about 12.9 percent.
 NCAA senior players drafted by an NHL team:
Less than 1 in 24, or 4.1 percent.
 High school senior players eventually drafted
by an NHL team: About one in 250, or 0.4
percent.
 That's the chance of flipping heads eight times
in a row.
Men’s Soccer
 High school senior players who go on to play NCAA men's soccer:
Less than three in 50, or 5.7 percent.
 NCAA senior players drafted by a Major League Soccer (MLS)
team: Less than one in 50, or 1.9 percent.
 High school senior players eventually drafted by an MLS team:
About one in 1,250, or 0.08 percent.
 That's about the chance that tomorrow will be February 29.
 from: http://www.charactercenter.com/Insight/InsightMarch2.htm
 sources: www.ncaa.org/research/, www.dailynebraskan.com, and
the Josephson Institute's PVWH Sportsmanship Newsleter, Feb.
05
NCAA Study Conclusion
“Sadly though, it comes as a rude surprise to many
athletes yearning for a professional sports career to
learn that the odds against success are astronomically
high. Approximately 1 percent of NCAA men’s
basketball players and 2 percent of NCAA football
players are drafted by NBA or NFL teams – and just
being drafted is no assurance of a successful
professional career. “Student-athletes” whose sole and
now failed objective was to make the pros suddenly
find themselves in a world that demands skills their
universities did not require them to learn.”
 reprinted from www.ncaa.org