Modeling The Costs and Benefits of
Early Childhood Systems
Presentation to the Asia-Pacific Regional Conference
on Early Childhood Development
Singapore
November 18-20, 2013
Andrew Brodsky, Ph.D.
[email protected]
Types of Cost Analysis
• Simple cost analysis (from perspective of system or agency)
• Cost-effectiveness analysis (per-child costs to achieve a
particular outcome)
• Cost-benefit analysis (requires quantifying benefits in
monetary figures)
(Karoly et al., 2001)
879 NEON FOREST CIRCLE, LONGMONT CO 80504  303-570-4713  WWW.BRODSKYRESEARCH.COM
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Theoretical Framework and Research Literature
• Developmental literature on key years for brain, socioemotional
development (e.g., Shonkoff and Phillips, 2000)
• Classic preschool longitudinal studies (Abecedarian, High Scope/Perry,
Chicago)
• Recent research in developed and LAMI countries on ECD
interventions - meta-analyses show effect size of .3 - .4 (Engle et. al,
2007, 2011)
• Conceptions of ECD as intrinsic or instrumental (Britto et al, 2013)
• Economics literature (Heckman)
Heckman Curve
Long-Term Benefits of ECD
• Reduced participation in special education
• Higher secondary graduation rates
• Reduced participation in criminal justice system
• Fewer repeated grades
• Higher income in adulthood
Cost-Benefit Model Methodology
1. Determine Goals and Scope of Project
• Purpose, stakeholders, scope, data
2. Research Review and Data Collection
• Child characteristics, funding, costs, current status, cost-benefit parameters
• Conduct cost-effectiveness analysis (if necessary)
3. Derive Formulas to Estimate Cost-Benefit Parameters
• Adjust for program alignment, local costs, demographics, quality
Amount of ECD Funding Across System
• Absolute amount seems large ($4 billion for New York)
• ECD investment is very small compared to K-12 system
• NY:
• ECD investment is $2,754 per child
• K-12 investment is $19,076 per child
• Most ECD resources go to early learning (in New York, 78% of EC
system)
Return On Investment (ROI) For Increased
Enrollment vs. Improved Quality (Colorado)
Return Type
Return Per Dollar Invested (USD)
Current System
Increased
Improved
Enrollment
Quality
Overall
$8.79
Child Care Industry
$1.13
Future Income
$1.56
Repeated Grades
$0.08
Special Education
$0.48
Graduation Rates
$0.05
Child Welfare
$0.85
Criminal Justice
$0.39
Reduced Welfare
$1.73
Taxes
$0.26
Return On Investment (ROI) For Increased
Enrollment vs. Improved Quality (Colorado)
Return Type
Return Per Dollar Invested (USD)
Current System
Increased
Improved
Enrollment
Quality
Overall
$8.79
$6.50
Child Care Industry
$1.13
$0.86
Future Income
$1.56
$1.19
Repeated Grades
$0.08
$0.06
Special Education
$0.48
$0.37
Graduation Rates
$0.05
$1.72
Child Welfare
$0.85
$0.04
Criminal Justice
$0.39
$0.65
Reduced Welfare
$1.73
$0.30
Taxes
$0.26
$1.32
Return On Investment (ROI) For Increased
Enrollment vs. Improved Quality (Colorado)
Return Type
Return Per Dollar Invested (USD)
Current System
Increased
Improved
Enrollment
Quality
Overall
$8.79
$6.50
$13.82
Child Care Industry
$1.13
$0.86
$1.98
Future Income
$1.56
$1.19
$2.49
Repeated Grades
$0.08
$0.06
$0.12
Special Education
$0.48
$0.37
$0.76
Graduation Rates
$0.05
$1.72
$3.59
Child Welfare
$0.85
$0.04
$0.08
Criminal Justice
$0.39
$0.65
$1.35
Reduced Welfare
$1.73
$0.30
$0.62
Taxes
$0.26
$1.32
$2.75
Time To Break-Even for Preschool Investment
Commonalities of LAMI and Wealthy Countries
• ECD in LAMI nations has similar goals to Head Start (Britto and
Gilliam, 2008)
• Many goals of ECD are universal (such as Millennium Development
Goals, economic growth, or school readiness)
• Attention to systemic or holistic approach
• Undergirded by developmental literature
Issues Specific to LAMI Countries
• How is Quality Defined?
• High-income countries: safety, teacher-child interactions, content knowledge
(Britto et al., 2011)
• LAMI countries: feeding and care, survival issues, health service provider
training, infrastructure development, attention to physical growth
• Sensitivity to Local Contexts
• Great diversity within LAMI countries
• Metrics of success should be tied to local context
• Balance between local and universal sociocultural values
Challenges and Opportunities in LAMI Countries
Challenges
•
•
•
•
Data collection/evaluation and monitoring systems
Research base is less developed
Sociocultural issues
Trust!
Opportunities
• Children with greatest needs show greatest benefits
• Need for ECD research in developing world
• Increasing attention to evidence-based policymaking
Recommendations
• Use Holistic or Systemic Approach
• Involve a Wide Range of Stakeholders
• Outcome Metrics Should Reflect Both Universal Goals and Local
Culture
• Adjust Parameters To Fit Local Context
• Develop Comprehensive Communication and Outreach Strategy
Questions?
Contact Info:
Andrew Brodsky
[email protected]
Website/blog: www.brodskyresearch.com
879 NEON FOREST CIRCLE, LONGMONT CO 80504  303-570-4713  WWW.BRODSKYRESEARCH.COM
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