Greenhouse Gases
Decomposition of Emission
Growth
Session 5(b)
Neil Leary
Changing Planet Study Group
July 19-22, 2010
Cooling the Liberal Arts Curriculum
A NASA-GCCE Funded Project
CO2 emission trends: 5 country comparison
Emissions of CO2 from energy use and industrial sources.
Graph generated from CAIT, July 2010: http://cait.wri.org/
Kaya Identity & decomposition
C = Pop x GDP/Pop x E/GDP x C/E
Emissions = population x per capita income x energy
intensity x carbon intensity
For small changes:
% Δ CO2 =
% Δ population
+ % Δ per capita income
+ % Δ energy intensity
+% Δ carbon intensity
Graph trends in CO2 drivers with CAIT
• Login to CAIT:
http://cait.wri.org/
• Select “CAIT”
• Select “Graph Trends”
• Select “Compare
Countries”
• Using pull down menus
– Select variable to be
graphed
– Select time period
– Select countries to be
displayed
– Click “Update”
Five Country Comparison
Graphs generated from CAIT, July 2010: http://cait.wri.org/
North-South Comparison
Emissions of CO2 from energy use and industrial sources.
Graph generated from CAIT, July 2010: http://cait.wri.org/
Decompose North-South emission trends
• Open spreadsheet
“Session 5b exercise Kaya”
Uses LMDI method to
decompose emissions
growth
• Download data from
CAIT and copy into
“Session 5b exercise
Kaya”
In CAIT: Select regions to be analyzed
• Click “Countries &
Regions”
• Select “Regions”
• Highlight World, Annex
1, Non-Annex 1
• Click [>>]
• Select “Display My
Countries/Regions”
• Click [Save Changes]
Download data from CAIT
• Select “Calculate Trends”
• Use pull down menu to
select variable
– Can only due 1 var at at
time; sorry
• Select “Download”
• Open the downloaded
spreadsheet
• Look in downloads folder
• Copy data into “Kaya 3
Country” spreadsheet
Data source: CAIT, July 2010: http://cait.wri.org/
Data source: CAIT, July 2010: http://cait.wri.org/
Data source: CAIT, July 2010: http://cait.wri.org/
IPCC SRES projections future CO2 emissions
Source: IPCC, 2001, WGI Report, Figure 5
Decomposition of SRES Projections
Data source: IPCC SRES, 2000