2
2016 Economic Impact Study
of San Francisco International Airport
Prepared for:
City and County of San Francisco
San Francisco Airport Commission
Prepared by:
Economic Development Research Group, Inc.
In Association with:
ICF International
Polaris Research and Development, Inc.
and The Bay Area Council Economic Institute
June 2016
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TABLE OF CONTENTS
Page
Executive Summary............................................................................................................................1
Total Economic Contribution ........................................................................................................... 1
Classification of Impacts .................................................................................................................. 2
Approach.......................................................................................................................................... 3
Chapter 1: Introduction and Overview ...............................................................................................5
Airside and Groundside Airport Jobs ............................................................................................... 7
Off-Airport Jobs Serving Airport Travelers....................................................................................... 7
Related Industries: Jobs that Rely on Air Cargo............................................................................... 8
Comprehensive Analysis ................................................................................................................ 10
Chapter 2: National Context ............................................................................................................11
Context: The Vibrant Bay Area Economy....................................................................................... 11
SFO’s Role in International Trade .................................................................................................. 13
Export Commodities ...................................................................................................................... 14
Import Commodities...................................................................................................................... 16
Total Trade ..................................................................................................................................... 19
Chapter 3: On-Airport Impacts.........................................................................................................21
Direct Employment ........................................................................................................................ 21
Business Sales and Payroll ............................................................................................................. 22
Indirect and Induced Impacts ........................................................................................................ 23
On-airport Construction................................................................................................................. 25
Chapter 4: Visitor Spending .............................................................................................................27
Visitor Spending ............................................................................................................................. 28
Jobs and Income Generated by Off-Airport Visitor Spending ....................................................... 29
Indirect and Induced Impacts ........................................................................................................ 30
Chapter 5: Impacts of Air Reliant Users (Freight Shippers) ...............................................................33
The Role of SFO in Air Exports ....................................................................................................... 33
International Exports ..................................................................................................................... 33
Domestic Exports ........................................................................................................................... 34
Economic Contribution of SFO to the Bay Area............................................................................. 35
Effects on Suppliers of Goods and Services ................................................................................... 36
Overview of International Air Freight Activity ............................................................................... 37
SFO Connects the Bay Area to Domestic Markets......................................................................... 38
Commodities Shipped from SFO to Domestic Markets ................................................................. 39
County by County Commodity Movements................................................................................... 40
Chapter 6: Tax Impacts Generated by Activities at SFO.....................................................................43
State and Local Tax Impacts........................................................................................................... 43
Federal Aviation Taxes ................................................................................................................... 43
Chapter 7: Distribution of Impacts by Bay Area Counties...................................................................45
On-Airport Effect among Bay Area Counties ................................................................................. 45
Visitor Spending ............................................................................................................................. 47
Tax Impacts by Bay Area County.................................................................................................... 48
Appendix I Methodology for the Analysis of Overall Economic Impacts .............................................51
Suppliers of Goods and Services (Indirect Multiplier Effects) ....................................................... 53
Re-Spending of Worker Income (Induced Multiplier Effects)........................................................ 53
Calculating the Domestic and International Values from Cargo Originating in the Bay Area
and Shipped Through SFO.............................................................................................................. 54
Major Sources of Data Used in this Study ..................................................................................... 55
Appendix II Summary of IMPLAN Sectoring.......................................................................................57
Appendix III SFO Tenant and Visitor Surveys .....................................................................................61
LIST OF TABLES
Table 1.
Table 2.
Table 3.
Table 4.
Table 5.
Table 6.
Table 7.
Table 8.
Table 9.
Table 10.
Table 11.
Table 12.
Table 13.
Table 14.
Table 15.
Table 16.
Table 17.
Table 18.
Table 19.
Table 20.
Table 21.
Table 22.
Table 23.
Table 24.
Table 25.
Table 26.
Table 27.
Table 28.
Table 29.
Table 30.
Table 31.
Table 32.
Table 33.
Table 34.
Page
Summary of Economic Impacts of SFO in the Bay Area ............................................................... 2
Economic Contribution of SFO to the Bay Area............................................................................ 6
Visitors to the San Francisco Region arriving through SFO (year ending June 2015)................... 8
Airport Ranking for Top Three Exported Commodities by Percent of Total ................................ 9
Air Value of U.S. and Bay Area Export by Airport, 2009-2015.................................................... 14
Top Ten SFO Export Commodities by Air Value and Weight, 2015 ............................................ 15
Top Ten SFO Import Commodities by Air Value and Weight, 2015 ........................................... 17
Countries that Traded Commodities with Total Value More than $1 Billion in 2015 through
SFO, In Order of Value of Trade.................................................................................................. 19
Direct Impacts of On-Airport Tenants and Administrative Employees ...................................... 22
Direct Employment, Labor Income, and Business Revenues for Tenant
and Administrative SFO .............................................................................................................. 23
Summary of Direct, Indirect and Induced Economic Impacts of SFO in Bay Area...................... 24
Supplier of Goods/Services Industries (Indirect)........................................................................ 24
Re-Spending of Worker Income Industries (Induced) ................................................................ 25
Sector Mapping........................................................................................................................... 25
Annual Average Impacts from SFO Construction on the Bay Area Economy............................. 26
Off-Airport SFO Visitor Spending Inside and Outside of the Bay Area ....................................... 28
Breakdown of Total Visitor Spending Impacts ........................................................................... 29
Earnings and Sales per Worker................................................................................................... 30
Summary of Direct, Indirect, and Induced Economic Impacts of the Contribution of Visitor
Spending in the Bay Area............................................................................................................ 31
Top International Exported Industries........................................................................................ 34
Top Domestic Shipped Industries............................................................................................... 34
Economic Value of Domestic and International Exports Originating in the Bay Area via SFO... 36
Impacts on Suppliers of Goods and Services (Indirect) by BEA Industry.................................... 37
Core Sources of Domestic Flows in vFreight .............................................................................. 39
Outbound and Inbound Commodities to/from the Nine-County Bay Area ............................... 40
Estimated 2012 State and Local Tax Impacts (in $ millions) ...................................................... 43
Estimated 2012 Federal Aviation Tax Revenues......................................................................... 44
Employment and Labor Income Impacts of On-airport Tenants by County............................... 45
Business Revenues Impacts of On-airport Tenants by Bay Area County ................................... 46
Economic Impacts of Visitor Spending by Bay Area County....................................................... 47
Tax Revenues by County for On-airport Tenants ....................................................................... 48
Tax Revenues by County for Visitor Spending............................................................................ 49
Industry Classification of On-Airport Industries ......................................................................... 58
Industry Classification of Visitor-Serving Industries ................................................................... 59
LIST OF FIGURES
Figure 1.
Figure 2.
Figure 3.
Figure 4.
Figure 5.
Figure 6.
Figure 7.
Figure 8.
Figure 9.
Figure 10.
Figure 11.
Figure 12.
Figure 13.
Figure 14.
Figure 15.
Figure 16.
Figure 17.
Figure 18.
Figure 19.
Figure 20.
Page
International Exports Shipped from SFO and California by Industry Sector............................... 9
Domestic Outbound Air Shipments from SFO .......................................................................... 10
Illustration of the Bay Area by County...................................................................................... 12
Top Five Airports by Air Value of Exports to Asia, 2009-2015 .................................................. 18
Top Five Airports by Air Value per Ton of Exports to Asia, 2009-2015..................................... 18
Distribution of On-Airport Tenants and Administrative Jobs ................................................... 21
Percent of Relative Employment, Labor Income and Revenues by Aggregated Sector
on SFO ....................................................................................................................................... 22
Profile of Air Visitors Arriving via SFO by Place of Origin.......................................................... 27
Relative Spending of Visitors per Trip by Origin and Purpose .................................................. 28
Percentage of the Bay Area’s Combined Domestic and International Exports Shipped
via SFO....................................................................................................................................... 35
Employment Impacts on Suppliers of Goods and Services (Indirect)....................................... 36
Regional Share of SFO Export Traffic ........................................................................................ 37
Bay Area Exports by County for Electronics and All Freight (2013) .......................................... 38
Inbound and Outbound Commodity Flows by Value from the Nine-County Region ............... 40
Domestic Destinations of Outbound Air Freight All Commodities (From SFO Nine-County
Catchment Region) ................................................................................................................... 41
Domestic Destinations of Outbound Electronics Air Freight (From SFO
Nine-County Catchment Region) .............................................................................................. 41
Domestic Origins Inbound Air Freight All Commodities (to SFO Nine-County
Catchment Region) ................................................................................................................... 42
Domestic Origins Inbound Electronics Air Freight (to SFO Nine-County Catchment Region) .. 42
Elements of Economic Impacts and Interrelationships ............................................................ 52
Methodology to Estimate Air Dependent Contribution to Bay Area Economy........................ 55
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
This study examines the 2015 economic impact of the San Francisco International Airport (SFO or “the
Airport”) in the nine-county Bay Area of Alameda, Contra Costa, Marin, Napa, San Mateo, San Francisco,
Santa Clara, Solano and Sonoma.
SFO is the seventh leading passenger airport in the United States and the 17th largest air cargo airport. 1
In the 2015 calendar year, nearly 430,000 aircraft operations were conducted at the Airport, serving over
50 million incoming and outgoing passengers, and moving 390,000 metric tons of cargo (including express)
and 69,500 metric tons of mail. 2
TOTAL ECONOMIC CONTRIBUTION
The total economic contribution of SFO to metropolitan San Francisco is the sum of the business activity
directly associated with operation of SFO and the spending of its users, as well as the additional business
activity associated with orders to suppliers and re-spending of worker income. These various elements of
economic impact are each defined and shown in Table 1.
In 2015, SFO directly accounted for $7.9 billion in business activity supporting over 39,000 jobs at the
Airport. 3. Off-site business activities that depend directly on local air service for staff movements, cargo
deliveries, or customer visits (visitor spending) together raise the direct airport economic contribution to
the Bay Area to $34.6 billion in business sales with over 158,000 jobs. There are also spin-off activities in
the region (indirect and induced multiplier effects) associated with suppliers of goods and services to the
directly affected businesses, and the re-spending of additional worker income on consumer goods and
services. Adding in these effects raises the total economic footprint of SFO in the Bay Area to over $61.7
billion in business sales, including $20.7 billion in total payroll, and more than 295,000 jobs in the region.
1
Based on FAA data for 2014 cited in SFO Annual Report, 2015. Preliminary 2014 data issued by Airports Council International
– North America lists SFO as the 18th largest cargo airport in North America.
2
Source: www.flysfo.com.
3
This total includes the Virgin America airline headquarters located in Burlingame CA and affiliated with SFO.
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Table 1. Summary of Economic Impacts of SFO in the Bay Area
Impact Type
Employment
Labor Income
Output
On-airport
39,427
$2,564,150,000
$7,850,536,000
Aviation dependent exports
27,423
$4,176,110,000
$16,970,133,000
Visitor spending
91,591
$3,537,205,000
$9,747,654,000
158,441
$10,277,465,000
$34,568,323,000
Suppliers of goods and services
53,906
$5,038,827,000
$13,012,276,000
Re-spending of income
82,976
$5,374,609,000
$14,157,615,000
295,323
$20,690,901,000
$61,738,214,000
Direct Total
Total Impact
Notes: Includes impacts of temporary construction investment Dollars rounded to the nearest thousand. Columns
may not add due to rounding.
The economic activities generated by SFO also return significant tax revenues to the State of California,
the nine Bay Area counties, and to the nation in terms of federal aviation taxes.
The state and local tax revenues linked to operations at SFO totaled $2.8 billion in FY 2015, including $1.5
billion from direct activities and $1.3 billion from purchases of supplier goods and services (tax impacts
from indirect effects) and subsequent spending of worker income in the Bay Area (tax impacts from
induced effects). Approximately $1.8 billion ($1.2 billion from direct activities) stem from on-airport
commerce and visitor spending, while more than $979 million are attributable to air-reliant shippers that
use SFO for air freight ($315 million from direct economic activity).
In addition, aviation operations at SFO generated $1.2 billion dollars in federal taxes including $395 million
from taxes on international and domestic passengers and $821 million in U.S. Customs revenue from
international air freight shipments. These tax revenues are remitted to the U.S. Department of the
Treasury and do not directly benefit the Bay Area or the State of California.
CLASSIFICATION OF IMPACTS
The operation of SFO, providing terminal and related services for air travelers and cargo movement, is
only a portion of the Airport’s contribution to the Bay Area economy. Visitors from international and
domestic locations use SFO to visit the Bay Area for leisure or business, and their spending supports
additional business activity within the region. In addition, companies in the region that produce
manufactured and agricultural goods that are exported by air from SFO would be at a disadvantage
without proximity to a major international airport. Altogether, these on- and off-site business activities
fall into five categories:
• Airport-based economic activities (airport terminal-related and tenants)
• Off-airport businesses serving airport travelers
• Off-airport businesses dependent on the Airport for cargo movement
• Suppliers of goods and services to the Airport and air-dependent business
• Re-spending of worker income (supported by airport-based activities, visitor spending, air-
dependent businesses, and suppliers of goods and services).
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APPROACH
Findings in this study were developed by:
1.
Undertaking a rigorous survey involving airport administration and tenants to quantify on-airport
direct employment.
2.
Conducting a visitor intercept survey of 1,900 passengers. At this scale, the survey meets a
confidence level of 99% with a 3% margin of error. The survey is used to establish trip purpose,
levels of spending, and patterns of spending of visitors. The annual number of visitors and the
proportion of international and domestic visitors are based on a combination of annual data from
SFO, and the U.S. Departments of Transportation and Commerce.
3.
Adapting the Impact Analysis for Planning (IMPLAN) Modeling Package to the nine-county Bay
Area region. IMPLAN was used to (a) develop a county-specific economic profile of the Bay Area
using data primarily from the U.S. Department of Commerce (Bureau of Economic Analysis) and
U.S. Department of Labor to estimate jobs, wages, and labor income (direct effect), and (b)
develop a model of the Bay Area to represent inter-metropolitan flows of business sales. This
includes business orders to suppliers generated by on-airport businesses, off-airport businesses
serving airport visitors, and airport-reliant businesses (indirect effects). It also includes business
sales generated by the spending of additional workers’ income on consumer purchases (induced
effects).
4.
Utilizing data from SFO, in conjunction with international data from the Foreign Trade Division of
the U.S. Census Bureau (packaged by WISERTrade) and domestic freight data from the Freight
Analysis Framework (FAF) of the U.S. Department of Transportation, to develop an analysis of the
role of air cargo shipments in the economies of the Bay Area.
5.
National and California state sources are used to identify aviation specific tax impacts and major
state and local tax impacts. State sources include the Governor’s Office, the California State
Controller’s Office, and the County of San Mateo. Federal sources include the Federal Aviation
Administration, Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and the U.S. Census Bureau. These sources are
used independently and in conjunction with the IMPLAN tax module to estimate tax impacts
generated by SFO aviation activity for federal revenues, and state and local taxes by where the
taxes are generated.
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CHAPTER 1: INTRODUCTION AND OVERVIEW
This report provides study findings of the economic impacts of San Francisco International Airport (SFO).
This chapter introduces the study, provides an overview of the methodology used, and summarizes the
Airport’s overall economic contribution to the nine-county Bay Area.
The Bay Area encompasses more than 6,900 square miles of land, with a population of approximately 7.6
million people and an economy that supports nearly 4.9 million jobs. 4
The operation of SFO, providing terminal and related services for air travelers and cargo movement, is
only one part of the Airport’s total regional economic impact. Airport-dependent businesses and airline
travelers visiting the area for business or leisure support additional business activity within the Bay Area.
Together, these on- and off-site business activities fall into five categories:
• Airport-based economic activities (airport terminal-related and tenants).
• Off-airport businesses serving airport travelers.
• Off-airport businesses dependent on SFO for cargo movement.
• Suppliers of goods and services to SFO and air-dependent business and to off-airport businesses
that serve visitors. This activity is off-airport in the Bay Area.
• Re-spending of worker income (supported by airport-based activities, visitor spending, airdependent businesses, and suppliers of goods and services). Almost all of the re-spending is offairport in the Bay Area.
The total economic contribution of SFO is the sum of the business activity directly associated with
operation of the Airport and the spending of its users, as well as the additional business activity associated
with orders to suppliers and re-spending of worker income. The sum of on-airport activities at SFO, visitor
spending by air visitors to the Bay Area, and regional exports supported by air cargo exceeds $34.6 billion
in direct business sales, which in turn support over 158,000 direct jobs that generates a $10.3 billion
payroll (see Table 2).
4
Sources: California Statistical Abstract, 2009 and BEA.gov (2014).
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Table 2. Economic Contribution of SFO to the Bay Area
Impacts
Visitor
Spending
39,427
12,964
19,028
71,419
91,591
15,120
25,110
131,821
27,423
25,823
38,837
92,083
158,441
53,906
82,976
295,323
$7,851
$2,704
$3,661
$14,216
$9,748
$2,940
$4,218
$16,905
$16,970
$7,368
$6,279
$30,617
$34,568
$13,012
$14,158
$61,738
$2,564
$1,109
$1,370
$5,042
$3,537
$1,165
$1,547
$6,249
$4,176
$2,765
$2,458
$9,399
$10,277
$5,039
$5,375
$20,691
$38,620
$77,073
$61,607
$152,285
$107,072
$63,291
$64,866
$93,475
$64,773
$47,409
$102,072
$70,062
Jobs
Direct
Indirect
Induced
Total Jobs
Business Revenue ($ millions)
Direct
Indirect
Induced
Total Business Revenue
Labor Income ($ millions)
Direct
Indirect
Induced
Total Labor Income
AirRelated
Airport
Generated
Avg. Income/Employee ($/yr.)
Direct
$65,035
Indirect
$85,520
Induced
$71,977
Weighted Avg.
$70,603
Income/Employee
Total
Impact
Notes: On-airport impacts include on-airport construction activities in 2015. Totals may not add due to rounding.
Sources: SFO, Survey of SFO Tenants, Survey of SFO Passengers, U.S. Department of Commerce data provided by MIG,
Inc. (IMPLAN) and WISERTrade using data from the U.S. Census Bureau, Foreign Trade Division. Calculations by EDR
Group.
In addition to direct impacts on the economy, indirect multiplier effects are associated with suppliers of
goods and services to directly affected businesses, and induced multiplier impacts are generated by respending of additional worker income on consumer goods and services.
Counting direct, indirect, and induced impacts, SFO’s contribution to the Bay Area economy is 295,000
jobs and $61.7 billion in business revenues, of which $20.7 billion is labor income (payroll). Table 2
summarizes the economic contribution of SFO to the Bay Area economy by impact category. Sections 1.1
through 1.3 provide a review of the different types of economic impacts generated by the Airport.
Appendix I summarizes the economic impact methodology.
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AIRSIDE AND GROUNDSIDE AIRPORT JOBS
Based on an airport-wide survey, 39,427 people work at SFO. This total includes 14,692 employees of
passenger airlines that serve the Airport. 5 The breadth of jobs at SFO involves:
• Airlines, both passenger and cargo activities
• Air terminal operation, including security, building maintenance and facility management
(construction also included)
• Public agencies such as the FAA, U.S. Departments of Immigration and Naturalization, Customs,
Agriculture, Fish and Wildlife, and Drug Enforcement Agency, as well as Airport Administration
(including police and fire departments)
• Airline support services, including catering, in-flight entertainment, aircraft handling, fueling and
maintenance
• Freight services, including courier, delivery, customs broker and trucking
• Concessions, including restaurants, retail stores and passenger services
• Ground transportation services, including rental car, taxi and limousine service and bus
companies.
OFF-AIRPORT JOBS SERVING AIRPORT TRAVELERS
For the fiscal year ending in June 30, 2015, SFO served over 48.2 million passengers, which included 24
million enplanements. Enplanements include persons transferring from one flight to another en route to
their final destinations, residents of the Bay Area who are traveling and non-residents returning home
after visiting the San Francisco region.
The visitor spending analysis in this report measures the extent that SFO facilitates money brought from
outside the Bay Area and spent in the Bay Area to support jobs in the hospitality sectors of the regional
economy. Transferring passengers and local residents, two classes of SFO passengers, are excluded from
this analysis. While transferring passengers may make purchases at the Airport between flights, this
spending is accounted in the revenues of terminal tenants. Thus, including their purchases as “visitor
spending” would be a double count. In addition, off-airport spending by residents traveling through SFO
also does not count as a regional economic impact, since residents spend most of their money in the Bay
Area anyway. Moreover, as with transferring passengers, money spent in the terminal is included in the
analysis of on-airport employment.
Overall, approximately 2.3 million international passengers plus 6 million from other states and 1.2 million
Southern California visitors came to the Bay Area via SFO (see Table 3). These visitors spent more than
$9.7 billion in the bay area region on hotels, food and beverage, retail purchases, entertainment, and local
travel (taxis, car rental, and public transportation).
5
Total on-airport employment includes the Virgin America airline headquarters located in Burlingame, CA and affiliated with
SFO.
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Table 3. Visitors to the San Francisco Region arriving through SFO (year ending June 2015)
Market
Domestic
Origin and Destination at SFO
Enplaned Passenger at SFO
Percent of Enplaned Passengers who are Visitors
Number of Visitors
Domestic Visitors by Origin
Percent Originating in California
Domestic Visitors Originating in California
Domestic Visitors Originating in Rest of US
International Visitors Arriving via U.S. Flag Airlines
Origin and Destination at SFO
Enplaned Passenger at SFO
Percent of Enplaned Passengers who are Visitors
Number of Visitors
International Visitors Arriving via Non-U.S. Flag Airlines
Origin and Destination at SFO
Enplaned Passenger at SFO
Percent of Enplaned Passengers who are Visitors
Number of Visitors
Total International Visitors (U.S. Flag and Non-U.S. Flag)
Total Visitors
Passengers
27,921,024
13,960,512
51.35%
7,168,886
16.33%
1,170,815
5,998,070
2,387,658
1,193,829
42.70%
509,805
5,909,298
2,954,649
62.09%
1,834,413
2,344,218
9,513,104
Note: This table does not include travelers using SFO to connect from one flight to another.
Sources: SFO Traffic Statistics; U.S. DOT O&D Survey, 2015; U.S. DOT, T-100 Database; IATA, PaxIS Database; U.S.
DOC, International Air Travel Statistics, 2015, U.S. DOC, National Travel and Tourism Office (NTTO).
RELATED INDUSTRIES: JOBS THAT RELY ON AIR CARGO
In the calendar year 2015, commodities valued at roughly $28.9 billion were shipped to international and
domestic destinations from SFO. Of this total value, about $17 billion originated in the Bay Area.
Products originating in California and shipped internationally from SFO primary consist of technology
goods. Three commodity groups account for an estimated 82% of total value exported internationally
which include electrical machinery, industrial machinery (including computers), and optics and
instruments with the remaining value spread cross pharmaceutical products, aircraft manufacturing,
chemicals, plastics and other commodities. Figure 1 presents the value of California exports through SFO
(green legend) and all of California air exports (blue legend). The yellow line and y-axis to the right show
the percent of SFO exports compared to all air exports from California. This figure highlights that between
30% and 46% of California’s three leading exported commodities are shipped through SFO.
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Figure 1. International Exports Shipped from SFO and California by Industry Sector
Electric Machinery; Sound & TV Equip
Industrial Machinery (incl. Computers)
CA
SFO
Optic, Photo, & Medic/Surgical Instrments
Pharmaceutical Products
Aircraft, Spacecraft, & Parts
Miscellaneous Chemical Products
Plastics & Articles
Others
$0
$5,000
$10,000
$15,000
$20,000
$25,000
International Exports in $ millions
Sources: WISERTrade using data from the U.S. Census Bureau, Foreign Trade Division and the Freight Analysis
Framework. Calculations by EDR Group.
Table 4 below presents how SFO ranks among the top five airports for these same three commodities
groups previously mentioned. SFO ranges between 8%-12% of national exports and ranks between second
and fifth nationally for electric machinery, industrial machinery (including computers) and optical/surgical
instrument exports.
Table 4. Airport Ranking for Top Three Exported Commodities by Percent of Total
Electric Machinery; Sound and
TV Equip
Airport
Total %
MSY
12.7%
LAX
12.3%
DFW
9.2%
SFO
9.0%
JFK
8.6%
Total ($ millions)
$ 89,050
Industrial Machinery (Incl.
Computers)
Airport
Total %
JFK
13.0%
SFO
11.8%
MIA
10.5%
ORD
9.7%
LAX
9.6%
Total ($ millions)
$ 66,481
Optic, Photo, and Medic /
Surgical Instruments
Airport
Total %
ORD
13.5%
LAX
10.7%
JFK
10.2%
MSY
9.3%
SFO
7.9%
Total ($ millions)
$ 61,132
Source: WISERTrade.
In 2015, domestic outbound shipments from SFO totaled $8.3 billion and consisted primarily of
electronics, precision instruments, pharmaceuticals, motorized vehicles, and machinery as shown in
Figure 2.
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Figure 2. Domestic Outbound Air Shipments from SFO
Pharmaceuticals
9%
Precision Instruments
12%
Motorized Vehicles
3%
Machinery
2%
All Others
9%
Electronics
65%
Source: FHWA Freight Analysis Framework (FAF).
COMPREHENSIVE ANALYSIS
Chapter Two places SFO in a regional, national and international context.
Chapters Three through Five review the multiple roles of SFO in the Bay Area Economy. Chapter Three
assesses SFO as an economic center of the Bay Area. SFO is a jobs hub, where almost 38,000 people work.
In addition, purchases of goods and services to support the Airport, and wages earned and spent by
workers, support an additional 30,000 jobs in the region.
Chapter Four reviews how air service at SFO facilitates travel from domestic and international locations,
traveling for business and for personal reasons. Altogether, visitors spent about $10 billion in the Bay Area
during 2015.
In Chapter Five, the study examines the role SFO plays by enabling manufacturers and agricultural
producers to transport commodities and finished goods to customers in both domestic and international
markets. In 2015, almost $17 billion of products originating in the Bay Area were shipped to customers
through SFO.
Chapter Six contains an accounting of federal, state and local tax revenues linked to SFO. In total $4 billion
in revenues are traced to the Airport.
Chapter Seven presents the distribution of impacts by each of the nine Bay Area counties.
Appendix I and Appendix II review the methodology used for this study; and Appendix III includes copies
of the survey instruments used to document tenant employment on-airport and visitor spending.
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CHAPTER 2: NATIONAL CONTEXT
The air transportation industry is a significant contributor to the U.S. economy, both in terms of output
and employment. In 2015, for instance, the sector generated $87.9 billion in gross domestic product (GDP)
and was responsible for employing 449,000 full-time equivalent (FTE) workers. 6 The role of air
transportation extends well beyond industry operations alone; however, air travel indirectly stimulates
both the global and national economy by facilitating trade and transporting passengers.
San Francisco International Airport (SFO) is the largest airport in the Bay Area, the seventh largest in the
United States and the 21st largest in the world in terms of air-passenger traffic. 7 When combined with
Oakland International Airport and Mineta San José International Airport, the three together constitute
the seventh largest domestic passenger market in the U.S. 8 In FY 2015, SFO served 37.6 million total
domestic passengers (enplaned and deplaned), capturing 66% of domestic Bay Area market share.
Meanwhile, SFO had an international Bay Area market share of 95% with over 10.6 million international
passengers served (enplaned and deplaned). 9
This section outlines the role that SFO plays in facilitating domestic and international trade. The role of
SFO contributing to the regional economy as a domestic and international gateway for air cargo shipments
from the Bay Area nine-county region is presented in Chapter Six.
CONTEXT: THE VIBRANT BAY AREA ECONOMY
The 6,900 square mile, nine-county Bay Area (see Figure 3) is home to 7.6 million residents, which
accounts for 19% of California’s population. The Bay Area’s population density of over 1,000 people per
square mile of land is more than four-times the California average. By itself, the region would be the
nation’s 13th most populous state, falling between Washington at 7.0 million and Virginia at 8.3 million
residents. Moreover, the per-capita income of Bay Area residents is 39% above the California average and
51% above the national average.
6
7
8
9
U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis, Industry Economic Accounts, Interactive Tables, available at
http://www.bea.gov/industry/index.htm as of April, 2016.
2015 SFO Annual Report, 2015, San Francisco, CA: San Francisco International Airport,
http://media.flysfo.com/media/2015%20Annual%20Report.pdf; Airports Council International
Federal Aviation Administration, Passenger Boarding (Enplanement) and All-Cargo Data for U.S. Airports, 2014.
2015 SFO Annual report. SFO’s total Bay Area market share, including both domestic and international passengers, was 70%
(or 48.2 million passengers) in FY2015.
2015 Economic Impact Study of San Francisco International Airport
11
Figure 3. Illustration of the Bay Area by County
Source: Data – RITA NTAD (National Transit Atlas Database). Graphic – EDR Group.
Some of the largest and fastest growing companies in the country that make the region home, fuel the
economy of the Bay Area. Twenty-eight of the global Fortune 500 and 29 of the U.S. Fortune 500 are
headquartered locally. Both of these groups represent more than $1.0 trillion in sales. Since 2011, no
Fortune 500 companies have relocated from the Bay Area and a new entrant, data management and cloud
services provider NetApp, has joined the list. Beyond just large companies, the Bay Area is home to 30 of
the Inc. Fastest Growing 500 list, collectively accounting for approximately $1.7 billion in sales. The Bay
Area is also home to three of the top ten global companies ranked by market capitalization, including the
two most valuable companies in the world, Apple and Google. If the Bay Area were a country, it would be
the 21st largest economy in the world, with a gross regional product that falls between the gross domestic
products of Switzerland (#20 among nations) and Sweden (#21). 10
This generally high-income level is supported by competitive economic strengths in the national and
global economies. The Bay Area is a national center for business innovation and technology while the city
of San Francisco is one of the United States’ leading domestic and international tourist destinations.
Silicon Valley, located in Santa Clara County, is renowned as the country’s technology (hardware and
software) capital. Other leading industries include financial activities, pharmaceutical and medicine
10
Source: Bay Area Economic Institute of the Bay Area Council, Bay Area Fast Facts (www.bayareaeconomy.org).
2015 Economic Impact Study of San Francisco International Airport
12
manufacturing, professional, scientific and technical services, information services, and higher education,
as well as hospitality related industries.
These core strengths of the Bay Area economy have specialized air service needs that are served by San
Francisco International Airport. 11 The high-tech and pharmaceutical manufacturing, knowledge based
service sectors, hospitality and agricultural industries rely on air services much more than other sectors,
for both passenger and cargo travel needs, for the following reasons:
• Products produced tend to be high-value, delicate and time-sensitive and need to be shipped by
air. Typically, these are technology-related products where value reflects high labor costs and
precision manufacturing, but may also be perishable agricultural products (including fish and
meat).
• Products that are heavy to ship, but that carry a large return on transportation costs invested,
including just-in-time manufacturing and equipment needed to maintain high yielding
production.
• Business and professional services depend on the sale of professional expertise, which often
requires travel to meet with clients and make presentations.
• Companies have statewide, western, national and even global business networks, requiring
frequent and often international travel between various offices.
• Airports serve resorts and tourist destinations.
Producers of high-tech products, business services and computer-oriented firms are among the industries
that spend the most money on air services. Most of these industries spend at least 40% more on air
services than the average industry in the United States, and a few spend 50% or more than the average
of all industries in the United States. 12
SFO’S ROLE IN INTERNATIONAL TRADE
Given its proximity to Asia markets, SFO has historically played an important role in international trade.
Over the past decade, the Airport experienced a trend in export activity similar to that of airports across
the country (Table 5). From 2009 to 2015, the total air value of exports 13 passing through SFO grew at an
average annual rate of 3.2%, from $21 billion to $25.3 billion. The value of exports at all U.S. airports
(including SFO) rose from $334.4 billion to $438.8 billion, or 4.6% annually, during the same period.
Despite being one of three commercial service airports within the region, SFO now accounts for a majority
of all export value that flies out of the Bay Area (Table 5). In 2015, Oakland International Airport exported
$260 million worth of commodities with an annual average growth rate of 8.3% from 2009 to 2015. The
San José International Airport exported an air value of $390 million in 2014 and experienced an annual
average growth rate of 5.6% from 2009 to 2014. In 2015, the value of international air exports from San
11
12
13
The following is based on research conducted for Aviation Cooperative Research Program 03-28: The Role of U.S. Airports in
the National Economy for the Transportation Research Board of the National Academies, published as ACRP Report 132.
Ibid.
These are the value of the goods at the U.S. port of export. The value shall be the selling price (or the cost if the goods are
not sold), including inland or domestic freight, insurance, and other charges to the U.S. seaport, airport, or land border port
of export.
2015 Economic Impact Study of San Francisco International Airport
13
José International jumped by almost a factor of three to $1.06 billion in 2015. At this writing, it is not clear
if this represents a long-term increase or is a one-year anomaly.
Table 5. Air Value of U.S. and Bay Area Export by Airport, 2009-2015
Airport
SFO
SJC
OAK
Total from Bay Area
International Airports
2009
$21.0
$0.3
$0.2
2010
$27.4
$0.3
$0.2
2011
$26.5
$0.3
$0.2
2012
$26.1
$0.4
$0.2
2013
$28.1
$0.5
$0.3
2014
$27.4
$0.4
$0.4
2015
$25.3
$1.1
$0.3
$21.5
$27.9
$27.0
$26.8
$28.9
$28.1
$26.6
Source: US Census Bureau Foreign Trade Division, provided by WISERTrade.
EXPORT COMMODITIES
While SFO serves as the gateway for a host of commodities, the Airport’s top exports reflect the
strengths of the Bay Area regional economy (Table 6). In 2015, electric machinery, sound equipment and
TV equipment exports alone were valued at $7.9 billion or over 32% of the total value exported through
the Airport. In 2013, exports of electric machinery, sound equipment, and TV equipment exports peaked
at $10.4 billion dollars and have been declining since (a 23% decline from 2013-2015). However,
machinery and computers, optic/photo/medical instruments, pharmaceutical, aircraft manufacturing
and agriculture sector exports have been growing in both value and weight. By measure of air weight,
edible fruits and nuts topped the list of export commodities at SFO in 2015 at 25.5 thousand metric tons,
or 18% of the Airport’s total. Industrial machinery (including computers); electric machinery; and optic,
photo, and medical instruments constituted a significant share of the commodity weight exported on
SFO flights in 2015.
2015 Economic Impact Study of San Francisco International Airport
14
Table 6. Top Ten SFO Export Commodities by Air Value and Weight, 2015
BY AIR VALUE
Rank
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
Commodity
Electronic Machinery, Sound/TV Equip.
Machinery and Computers
Optic/Photo/Medical Instruments
Pharmaceutical Products
Aircraft, Spacecraft and Parts
Misc. Chemical Products
Plastics
Photo or Cinema Goods
Edible Fruit and Nuts
Tanning, Dye, Paint and Paint
All Commodities
Air Value
(In $M's)
$7,984
$7,825
$4,845
$1,292
$824
$488
$166
$143
$138
$125
$25,302
%
Change
(20092015)
-9%
52%
29%
58%
71%
0.5%
57%
62%
23%
15%
20%
% Annual
Change
(20092015)
-1.5%
7.2%
4.3%
7.9%
9.4%
0.1%
7.8%
8.4%
3.5%
2.4%
3.2%
BY AIR WEIGHT
Rank
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
Commodity
Edible Fruit and Nuts
Machinery and Computers
Electric Machinery, Sound/TV Equip.
Optic/Photo/Medical Instruments
Vegetables, Roots and Tubers
Meat
Plastics
Miscellaneous Chemical Products
Beverages, Spirits, and Vinegar
Articles of Iron or Steel
All Commodities
Air
Weight
(In 000's
of Metric
Tons)
25.5
24.6
14.9
10.9
5.0
4.5
3.9
3.5
2.9
2.5
138.7
% Change
(20092015)
13%
7%
-13%
12%
33%
353%
2%
-12%
78%
-25%
7.6%
%
Annual
Change
(20092015)
2.1%
1.1%
-2.4%
1.9%
4.9%
28.6%
0.3%
-2.1%
10.1%
-4.6%
1.2%
Source: US Census Bureau Foreign Trade Division, provided by WISERTrade.
Since 2009, SFO has witnessed double-digit growth in the export of several commodities (Table 6). Meat
exports by volume saw an annual average increase of 28.6% over the past six years with a notable
increase of 59% just between 2014 and 2015.
2015 Economic Impact Study of San Francisco International Airport
15
IMPORT COMMODITIES
SFO also serves as the entryway to the Bay Area for many commodity types (Table 7). 14 Valued at $12.1
billion, commodities in electric machinery: sound/TV equipment topped the Airport’s list of most
valuable imports in 2015. These commodities, when combined with those in the industrial machinery,
including computers, optic, photographic, and medical instruments; accounted for 79% of the Airport’s
total import value in 2015. Pharmaceuticals, chemical products, pearls, stones, metals, coins, photo or
cinema goods also constituted a significant portion of total import value at SFO last year, while fish,
apparel, plastics, ceramics, and vehicles comprised most of the Airport’s total import weight beyond
typical electric-related commodities.
Pharmaceuticals experienced strong growth over the last six years not only as an export commodity but
also as an import to SFO (Table 7). From 2009-2015, the value of import commodities in this category
grew from $225.7 million to $1.3 billion, an increase of 726%. All of the top commodity types increased
in value while only apparel (not including knit) and vehicles declined in volume during the same period.
14
U.S. district and port data do not reflect state of origin or destination, but indicate pass-through location only. There are no
data available on state imports because it is impossible to tell the ultimate destination once goods enter the country.
2015 Economic Impact Study of San Francisco International Airport
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Table 7. Top Ten SFO Import Commodities by Air Value and Weight, 2015
BY AIR VALUE
Rank
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
Air Value
(In $M's)
Commodity
Electric Machinery, Sound/TV Equip.
Machinery and Computers
Optic/Photo/Medical Instruments
Special Classification
Pharmaceutical Products
Miscellaneous Chemical Products
Pearls/Stones/Metals/Coins
Photo or Cinema Goods
Apparel (not including knit)
Vehicles (except rail or tramway)
All Commodities
$12,115
$7,225
$2,462
$1,402
$1,277
$641
$221
$177
$168
$139
$27,571
%
Change
(20092015)
44%
23%
68%
48%
726%
62%
26%
43%
14%
82%
47%
% Annual
Change
(20092015)
6.2%
3.6%
9.1%
6.8%
42.2%
8.4%
3.9%
6.2%
2.2%
10.5%
6.6%
BY AIR WEIGHT
Rank
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
Commodity
Machinery and Computers
Electric Machinery, Sound/TV Equip.
Optic/Photo/Medical Instruments
Fish, Crustaceans and Aquatic
Apparel (not including knit)
Apparel (including knit)
Plastics
Special Classification
Ceramic Products
Vehicles (except rail or tramway)
All Commodities
Air Weight
(In 000's of
Metric
Tons)
43.2
40.8
8.9
7.4
5.2
4.9
4.0
3.9
3.6
3.5
164.7
% Change
(20092015)
1%
43%
17%
107%
-2%
10%
44%
33%
28%
-18%
29.8%
% Annual
Change
(20092015)
0.2%
6.1%
2.7%
12.8%
-0.4%
1.6%
6.2%
4.9%
4.2%
-3.2%
4.4%
Source: US Census Bureau Foreign Trade Division, provided by WISERTrade Trade with Asia.
SFO is a national gateway in terms of trade with Asia. 15 In 2015, the Airport was the fourth busiest in the
nation in terms of trans-pacific trade, serving as the pass-through port for $18.7 billion in total Asia export
value which has grown from $15.4 billion in 2009 and peaked at $22 billion in 2013 (Figure 4). When
measured by tonnage exported to Asia, SFO ranked fourth among U.S. airports each year since 2009,
behind Los Angeles International (LAX), Chicago O’Hare International (ORD) and John F. Kennedy
International (JFK).
In 2015, Asia export value accounted for 74% of the Airport’s total export value. This reliance on Asia
exports has been consistent at SFO. During the 2009-2015 timeframe, SFO and JFK alternated as the lead
15
Defined here as the Asia continent excluding the Middle East and Turkey.
2015 Economic Impact Study of San Francisco International Airport
17
U.S. airport in in terms of value per exported ton, as shown in Figure 5. Led by industrial machinery,
electrical machinery and optical instruments, the value of exports to Asia through SFO averaged about
$200,000 per ton in 2015.
Figure 4. Top Five Airports by Air Value of Exports to Asia, 2009-2015
Air Value of Exports to Asia (in billions)
$40.0
$35.0
JFK
$30.0
LAX
$25.0
ORD
$20.0
SFO
DFW
$15.0
$10.0
$5.0
$0.0
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
Source: US Census Bureau Foreign Trade Division, provided by WISERTrade.
Figure 5. Top Five Airports by Air Value per Ton of Exports to Asia, 2009-2015
Average Value per Metric Ton
$250,000
JFK
SFO
DFW
$200,000
$150,000
LAX
$100,000
ORD
$50,000
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
Source: US Census Bureau Foreign Trade Division, provided by WISERTrade.
2015 Economic Impact Study of San Francisco International Airport
18
TOTAL TRADE
In 2015, SFO facilitated nearly $53 billion of international trade (imports and exports), which required the
transport of over 300,000 metric tons of cargo. The largest trading partners of U.S. companies that use
SFO are, in order of air value: China, Japan, the Republic of Korea, Taiwan, Malaysia and Singapore. Trade
between the U.S. and these six nations accounted for 69% of the value and 62% of tonnage of
commodities moved through SFO. As displayed in Table 8, the Airport enabled trade of a billion dollars or
more with 13 different nations in 2015, and nine of them are in Asia. Germany is the largest non-Asia
market connected through SFO.
Table 8. Countries that Traded Commodities with Total Value More than $1 Billion in 2015 through SFO,
In Order of Value of Trade
Trading Partner
Value of Trade
2015
China
Japan
Korea, Republic of
Taiwan
Malaysia
Singapore
Germany
Ireland
Hong Kong
Thailand
Philippines
United Kingdom
Switzerland
Other (224 countries)
Total
$11,312,922,000
$7,196,323,000
$5,683,315,000
$5,397,777,000
$3,567,424,000
$3,260,217,000
$1,957,530,000
$1,663,655,000
$1,656,515,000
$1,470,057,000
$1,180,608,693
$1,052,449,344
$1,020,452,265
$6,453,989,000
$52,873,234,000
Percent of
Total SFO
Air Trade
21%
14%
11%
10%
7%
6%
4%
3%
3%
3%
2%
2%
2%
12%
100%
Metric
Tons 2015
68,884
46,978
23,169
28,715
8,407
12,865
10,486
3,759
10,184
5,531
2,776
8,496
3,952
69,219
303,421
Percent of
Total
Tonnage
23%
15%
8%
9%
3%
4%
3%
1%
3%
2%
1%
3%
1%
23%
100%
Source: US Census Bureau Foreign Trade Division, provided by WISERTrade.
2015 Economic Impact Study of San Francisco International Airport
19
This Page Left Blank Intentionally
2015 Economic Impact Study of San Francisco International Airport
20
CHAPTER 3: ON-AIRPORT IMPACTS
DIRECT EMPLOYMENT
In 2015, almost 38,000 people were employed at SFO (excluding employment generated by temporary
construction expenditures), according to data from the surveys of airport management and tenants. In
addition to 14,900 employees of passenger airlines, the Airport supports a wide variety of other aviationrelated jobs in transportation, retail, and government services. These jobs involve:
• Freight services, including dedicated cargo aviation, courier, delivery, custom broker, and trucking
• Air terminal operations, including security, building maintenance and facility management
• Airline support services, including catering, in-flight entertainment, aircraft handling, fueling and
maintenance
• Concessionaire services, including restaurants and retail stores
• Ground transportation, including rental car, taxis, and limousines
Figure 6 shows the distribution of jobs at SFO by major function. Roughly 52% of airport jobs are directly
aviation related, including passenger and dedicated freight airlines that use SFO and aviation support
services, including in-flight catering firms and fixed-base operators (FBOs). The Airport Commission and
contractors, federal agencies such as the FAA and the TSA, and other administrative functions account for
17% of on-airport employment. Terminal concessions account for 13% of employment, while ground
transportation also accounts for 12% of total full time and part time jobs.
Figure 6. Distribution of On-Airport Tenants and Administrative Jobs
Aviation Support
11%
Rental Car
6%
Freight Transp.
1%
Ground Transp.
12%
Passenger Airlines
40%
Terminal
Concessions
13%
Admin / Gov. / Security
17%
Sources: Interviews of tenants and airport administration.
2015 Economic Impact Study of San Francisco International Airport
21
BUSINESS SALES AND PAYROLL
In 2015, SFO business establishments generated nearly $7.5 billion of business revenues (business sales
and government budget expenditures), which included over $2.4 billion of payroll for the 37,500 workers
at the Airport (see Table 9).
Table 9. Direct Impacts of On-Airport Tenants and Administrative Employees
Impact Type
Employment
Direct Effect
37,578
Payroll
$2,419,276,000
Revenues
$7,527,914,000
Note: Data excludes on-airport construction activities in 2015.
Source: Airport Tenant Survey and data from the U.S. Department of Commerce aggregated through IMPLAN.
Payroll was calculated from a hybrid of the survey responses and average (mean) revenues and wages per
worker by economic sector in the Bay Area. 16 Findings from this analysis show that passenger airlines
represent 40% of employment at SFO but also account for 47% of labor income earned by workers and
61% of revenues generated on the Airport. Passenger Airlines was the only sector with a higher
percentage of total labor income and productivity (revenues) than employment across all sectors as
shown in Figure 7. Moreover, the average payroll for on-airport workers was $64,400.
Figure 7. Percent of Relative Employment, Labor Income and Revenues by Aggregated Sector on SFO
70%
60%
Jobs
Revenues
Labor Income
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
Passenger
Airlines
Admin / Gov. /
Security
Terminal
Concessions
Psgr. Grnd
Transp.
Aviation
Support
Rental car
Freight Transp.
Other
Sources: Interviews of tenants and airport administration, U.S. Department of Commerce data provided by IMPLAN.
Calculations by EDR Group.
16
Survey respondents were asked for payroll. When it was not provided, the survey data were supplemented with U.S.
Department of Commerce data for appropriate industry sectors for each employer, aggregated by the Minnesota IMPLAN
Group (MIG, Inc.).
2015 Economic Impact Study of San Francisco International Airport
22
INDIRECT AND INDUCED IMPACTS
The direct economic activities at SFO lead to additional downstream impacts on suppliers, as well as respending of worker income. To calculate the impacts of these effects, indirect and induced multipliers
were calculated for each of the categories listed in Table 10.
Table 10. Direct Employment, Labor Income, and Business Revenues for Tenant and Administrative SFO
Classification of Activity by Sector
Passenger Services & Airport Administration
Other/Non-Profit
State/Local Government
Parking and Miscellaneous
Mgmt., Maint./Cleaning, & Facilities Services
Federal Government
City of San Francisco Airport Commission
Security Firms
FBOs, General Aviation and Aviation. Services
Airport Retail and Concessions
Passenger Airlines
Sub Total
Freight Transportation Services
Freight Airlines and Couriers
Passenger Ground Transportation Services
Limos/Buses/Vans/Transit
Taxi Cabs
Transportation Network Companies (TNCs)
Rental Car
Sub Total
Total Airport-Based
Employment
Payroll
Revenues
92
95
217
360
1,814
1,976
1,992
4,062
4,684
14,962
30,252
$5,214,000
$7,458,000
$15,582,000
$33,166,000
$212,830,000
$235,162,000
$96,557,000
$175,477,000
$161,021,000
$1,128,673,000
$2,071,140,000
$12,323,000
$15,237,000
$29,795,000
$71,780,000
$311,610,000
$274,875,000
$132,656,000
$404,017,000
$606,364,000
$4,598,942,000
$6,457,599,000
485
$33,519,000
$123,117,000
2,121
1,896
488
2,336
6,841
37,578
$95,347,000
$85,236,000
$21,929,000
$112,106,000
$314,618,000
$2,419,277,000
$194,798,000
$174,140,000
$44,802,000
$533,456,000
$947,196,000
$7,527,912,000
Notes: Data excludes on-airport construction activities conducted in 2015. Dollars rounded to the nearest thousand. Columns may not add due to rounding.
Sources: Interviews of tenants, airport administration, and U.S. Department of Commerce data provided by IMPLAN.
Calculations by EDR Group.
In 2015, the direct economic activities on-airport generated an additional $6.1 billion in business revenues
in the Bay Area (indirect and induced effects), supporting nearly 30,600 additional jobs and $2.4 billion in
labor income (payroll). The total economic contribution of on-airport activity to the Bay Area is roughly
$13.6 billion in revenues, yielding 68,000 jobs and $4.8 billion in labor income for workers (see Table 11).
Suppliers of goods and services generated approximately $2.6 billion in revenues, over 12,000 jobs, and
expended nearly $1.1 billion on payroll (indirect impacts). The re-spending of labor income by workers on
airport and supplier firms supported approximately 18,000 additional Bay Area jobs, more than $1.3
billion in payroll and $3.5 billion in new business sales.
2015 Economic Impact Study of San Francisco International Airport
23
Table 11. Summary of Direct, Indirect and Induced Economic Impacts of SFO in Bay Area
Economic Impacts
Employment
I. Direct Impact: Airport-Driven Activity
Airport-Based
37,578
II. Indirect Impact: Suppliers of Goods and Services
Due to Airport and Related Activities
12,419
III. Induced Impact: Re-Spending of Worker Income
Due to Airport and Related Activities
18,179
Total Regional Impact
68,176
Payroll
Revenues
$2,419,276,000
$7,527,914,000
$1,067,815,000
$2,596,034,000
$1,317,065,000
$4,804,156,000
$3,517,625,000
$13,641,573,000
Notes: Dollars rounded to the nearest thousand. Columns may not add due to rounding.
Sources: Interviews of tenants, airport administration, and U.S. Department of Commerce data provided by IMPLAN.
Calculations by EDR Group.
On-airport businesses purchase supplies and services from the greater Bay Area economy which is highly
concentrated in air-reliant services, 17 transportation support, other services, and food and beverage
industries which combined represent 69% of all supporting industries (Table 12). The wages spent by
employees of on-airport businesses for their daily living needs are primarily spent on service sectors, food
and beverages, and retail, which combine to be 74% of all purchases made within in the Bay Area economy
as indicated in Table 13.
Table 12. Supplier of Goods/Services Industries (Indirect)
Industry
Air-reliant services
Transportation Support
Other Services
Food and Beverage
Couriers
Wholesale Trade
Manufacturing
State and Local Government
Construction
Banking and Financial Services
All Others
Total
Employment
2,613
2,578
2,423
917
557
510
469
467
291
235
1,360
12,419
% of Total
21%
21%
20%
7%
4%
4%
4%
4%
2%
2%
11%
100%
Sources: U.S. Department of Commerce data provided by IMPLAN. Calculations by EDR Group.
Air-reliant services include: architectural engineering; business support; computer systems design services; facility support;
financial services; management, scientific, technical services; and consulting. These sectors purchase large amounts of air
transportation services. Other Services include: insurance, rental/leasing, building services, landscaping, waste management,
medical, social, and maintenance and repair. A full listing is in Appendix I.
17
2015 Economic Impact Study of San Francisco International Airport
24
Table 13. Re-Spending of Worker Income Industries (Induced)
Industry
Employment
Services
Food and Beverage
Reliant Services
Retail
Entertainment
Wholesale Trade
Banking and Financial services
Manufacturing
State and Local Government
All Others
Total
% of Total
6,280
2,750
2,333
2,006
750
588
446
298
277
2,450
18,179
35%
15%
13%
11%
4%
3%
2%
2%
2%
13%
100%
Sources: U.S. Department of Commerce data provided by IMPLAN. Calculations by EDR Group.
ON-AIRPORT CONSTRUCTION
SFO provided a summary of all capital projects from FY 12/13 to FY 14/15. The summary of projects was
provided in five categories of expenditures, including project management by Airport Commission staff,
construction costs, professional services, purchase of material, and “other.” An analysis over multiple
years is preferable to smooth-out annual fluctuations that are typically seen in construction spending. The
objective of this approach is to estimate economic impacts of construction at SFO for a “typical year” to
mitigate the short-term investment periods associated with single construction projects.
Each type of expenditure is matched to the most appropriate industry sector in the IMPLAN modeling
package, as described in Table 14.
Table 14. Sector Mapping
SFO Work Phase Group
Category
IMPLAN Sector
Description
Airport Commission Labor
Construction
Professional Services
Materials (computers; office
equipment & furniture)
Other (misc. services)
Local government, non-education
Construction of other new nonresidential facilities
Architectural & Engineering services
Electronic computer manufacturing
Office supplies (except paper) mfg.
Facilities support services
Source: SFO and U.S. Department of Commerce data provided by IMPLAN.
After classifying each of the five expenditure categories into the corresponding IMPLAN sector, these
economic impacts of the capital investments were estimated for the nine Bay Area counties for an
average year from FY 12/13 – FY 14/15 (Table 15).
2015 Economic Impact Study of San Francisco International Airport
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Table 15. Annual Average Impacts from SFO Construction on the Bay Area Economy
Impact Type
Direct Effect
Indirect Effect
Induced Effect
Total Effect
Employment
1,849
544
850
3,243
Labor Income
$144,874,000
$40,824,000
$52,543,000
$238,241,000
Expenditures
$322,622,000
$108,382,000
$143,622,000
$574,626,000
Notes: Dollars rounded to the nearest thousand. Columns may not add due to rounding.
Source: Employment and Labor Income derived using IMPLAN.
2015 Economic Impact Study of San Francisco International Airport
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CHAPTER 4: VISITOR SPENDING
In the year ending June 2015, 52.5% of domestic and international air travelers arriving at SFO were non­
residents visiting the region (representing 9.58 million of the 18.1 million origin and destination (O&D)
enplanements at the Airport, excluding connecting passengers). SFO traffic statistics and national data
sets from the Department of Transportation show that that 25% of all visitors were international visitors,
12% were Southern California residents served by four airports and 63% were visitors from other parts of
the United States. Surveys of air travelers indicate that 70% of visitors traveled for labor reasons to the
Bay Area and 30% for business reasons. The survey also shows that the trip purposes of domestic travelers
are far more likely to be business related than for international travelers (Figure 8).
Figure 8. Profile of Air Visitors Arriving via SFO by Place of Origin
International
Passenger Segment
Trip Purpose
Personal
Business
Domestic
67%
33%
International
75%
25%
California
Other U.S. States
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
Millions of Visitors
Sources: Visitor Survey Conducted by Polaris, Inc., SFO Traffic Statistics; U.S. DOT O&D Survey, U.S. DOT, T-100
Database; IATA, PaxIS Database; U.S. DOC, National Travel and Tourism Office (NTTO). Calculations by EDR Group
and ICF.
2015 Economic Impact Study of San Francisco International Airport
27
VISITOR SPENDING
The survey of arriving visitors found that, on average, international visitors spend $1,218 in the Bay Area
and domestic U.S. visitors spend $1,011 per trip. The breakdowns by trip origin and trip purpose (business
or labor) are shown in Figure 9.
Figure 9. Relative Spending of Visitors per Trip by Origin and Purpose
$1,016
International Personal
$1,842
International Business
$875
Domestic Personal
$1,294
Domestic Business
$­
$200
$400
$600
$800
$1,000
$1,200
$1,400
$1,600
$1,800
$2,000
Individual Spending per Trip
Sources: Visitor Survey Conducted by Polaris, Inc. Calculations by EDR Group.
Overall, the off-airport spending of the 9.5 million domestic and foreign visitors who arrived through SFO
visitor amounted to nearly $10.3 billion, of which approximately $9.7 billion was in the Bay Area and an
additional $541 million was outside the Bay Area 18. This encompasses spending on hotels, food and
beverage, retail purchases, entertainment and recreation, and local travel (e.g. taxis, car rental, 19 sight­
seeing trips, and public transportation). The breakout of visitor spending by sector is shown in Table 16.
Table 16. Off-Airport SFO Visitor Spending Inside and Outside of the Bay Area
Sector
Total within Bay Area
Total Outside Bay Area
$4,176,228,000
$2,226,633,000
$1,636,851,000
$768,756,000
$660,421,000
$278,766,000
$9,747,655,000
$243,998,000
$118,562,000
$83,601,000
$41,179,000
$46,276,000
$7,203,000
$540,819,000
Accommodations
Food and Beverage
Retail
Entertainment
Car Rental
Ground Transportation
Total
Total
$4,420,226,000
$2,345,195,000
$1,720,452,000
$809,935,000
$706,697,000
$285,969,000
$10,288,474,000
Note: Dollars are rounded to thousands.
Sources: SFO Traffic Statistics and national data sets from the Department of Transportation, Visitor Survey. Calculations by EDR Group.
18
19
Visitor surveys conducted at SFO indicated if spending occurred within the Bay area or in surrounding counties.
On-airport car rentals are included in the On-airport tenant estimates. Car rentals off-airport is included in the Visitor Spending
estimates.
2015 Economic Impact Study of San Francisco International Airport
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JOBS AND INCOME GENERATED BY OFF-AIRPORT VISITOR SPENDING
The $9.7 billion spent in 2015 by visitors arriving through SFO supported nearly 132,000 jobs within the
Bay Area, and an additional 8,000 jobs supported by visitor spending outside the Bay Area in other
counties in California.
Table 17. Breakdown of Total Visitor Spending Impacts
Impact Type
Employment
Payroll
Total Visitor Spending Impacts in Bay Area
Direct
91,591 $3,537,205,000
Indirect
15,120 $1,165,317,000
Induced
25,110 $1,546,939,000
Total
131,821 $6,249,461,000
Total Visitor Spending Impacts Outside of the Bay Area
Direct
5,469
$181,180,000
Indirect
1,183
$67,057,000
Induced
1,434
$70,389,000
Total
8,086
$318,626,000
Total Visitor Spending Impacts Due to SFO
Direct
97,059 $3,718,385,000
Indirect
16,303 $1,232,374,000
Induced
26,544 $1,617,328,000
Total
139,907 $6,568,087,000
Visitor Spending
$9,747,654,000
$2,939,645,000
$4,217,708,000
$16,905,007,000
$540,819,000
$198,831,000
$214,551,000
$954,201,000
$10,288,473,000
$3,138,476,000
$4,432,259,000
$17,859,208,000
Notes: Jobs include employees and proprietors. Payroll includes wages, profits, and value of benefits.
Sources: Visitor Survey conducted by Polaris, Inc. SFO Traffic Statistics and national data sets from the Department
of Transportation. Calculations by EDR Group.
The IMPLAN modeling package was tailored to the nine-county Bay Area and the rest of California to
calculate direct jobs and wages from visitor spending in the region and to capture spending in the
remaining counties of California. In the initial stage of the analysis, spending profiles were developed, as
shown in Table 16 (lodging, food and beverage, entertainment, retail, and local ground transportation)
were used in the initial stage of the analysis. 20 The second step was to develop ratios of business sales
(the actual visitor spending) to worker, and payroll to worker in each of the five sectors. These ratios are
summarized in Table 18. With the development of these ratios, employment and payroll (earnings) were
calculated as follows:
20
1.
Step 1. Employment Generated by Visitor Spending = Visitor Spending/Business Sales per Worker
(by sector)
2.
Step 2. Labor Income Generated by Visitor Spending = Workers (calculated in Step 1 above) *
Labor Income per Worker (by sector)
IMPLAN packages data from federal agencies on a county basis, including the U.S. Department of Commerce and the U.S.
Department of Labor. EDR Group developed the sectors that reflect visitor spending and aggregated the counties to build the
Bay Area region and Outside-Bay Area region.
2015 Economic Impact Study of San Francisco International Airport
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Table 18. Earnings and Sales per Worker
Sector
Ground Transportation
Car Rental
Accommodations
Retail
Entertainment
Food & Beverage
Payroll per
Worker
$63,268
$48,533
$44,728
$39,692
$34,213
$29,110
Sales per
Worker
$130,574
$225,832
$112,797
$82,027
$84,608
$62,033
Notes: Payroll (labor income) includes wages and profits. Retail Sales per worker are margined sales.
Sources: U.S. Departments of Commerce of Labor data provided by IMPLAN. Calculations by EDR Group.
INDIRECT AND INDUCED IMPACTS
Activities serving air travelers or visitors outside of the Airport (see Table 16) also generate additional
orders for goods and services from suppliers. These include orders for:
• Fuel and maintenance services by off-airport taxis, rental cars, tour buses, and public
transportation
• Accounting fees paid by businesses in hospitality industries
• Food products for off-airport restaurants
• Wholesale merchandise to be sold by off-airport stores
• Furniture and equipment for off-airport hotels, restaurants, and stores.
These orders, in turn, support additional employment and wages in the Bay Area. Supplier orders of offairport businesses that serve visitors who arrive in the Bay Area through SFO led to more than $1.2 billion
in payroll in 2015. Workers then spent this income on consumer purchases, such as:
• Retail purchases for consumer items such as food, clothing, home furnishings and cars
• Purchases of health care and childcare services
• Rent and mortgage payments, and other housing costs
In 2015, the multiplier effects of spending by air visitors to the Bay Area generated an additional $7.2
billion in business revenues in the region, supporting 40,000 additional job, and provided over $2.7 billion
in total payroll expenditures.
Including initial visitor spending, indirect supplier purchases and spending of earned income by workers
in visitor services industries, the total economic contribution of SFO visitors to the Bay Area totaled
roughly $16.9 billion in revenues, yielding nearly 132,000 jobs and more than $6.2 billion in payroll (see
Table 19). Suppliers of goods and services generated approximately $2.9 billion of revenues, 15,000 jobs
and $1.2 billion of Labor income (indirect impacts). The re-spending of earnings supported $4.2 billion of
revenues, 25,000 jobs and $1.5 billion of labor income (induced impacts).
2015 Economic Impact Study of San Francisco International Airport
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Table 19. Summary of Direct, Indirect, and Induced Economic Impacts of the Contribution of Visitor
Spending in the Bay Area
Economic Impact
Business Revenues
I. Direct Impact: Visitor Spending Activity
Direct Visitor Spending
$9,747,654,000
II. Indirect Impact: Suppliers of Goods and Services
Due to Visitor Spending Off-Airport
$2,939,645,000
III. Induced Impact: Re-Spending of Worker Income
Due to Visitor Spending Off-Airport
$4,217,708,000
Total Regional Impact in Bay Area
$16,905,007,000
Payroll
Jobs
$3,537,205,000
91,591
$1,165,317,000
15,120
$1,546,939,000
$6,249,461,000
25,110
131,821
Notes: Dollars rounded to thousands. Columns may not add due to rounding. Sources: SFO Traffic Statistics and national data sets from the Department of Transportation, Visitor Survey. U.S. Department of Commerce data provided by IMPLAN, IMPLAN multiplier package. Calculations by EDR Group.
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2015 Economic Impact Study of San Francisco International Airport
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CHAPTER 5: IMPACTS OF AIR RELIANT USERS
(FREIGHT SHIPPERS)
For this study, “reliant users” are defined as manufacturers and agricultural industries that ship products
by air through SFO. 21
THE ROLE OF SFO IN AIR EXPORTS
SFO plays a critical role in California’s economy by enabling manufacturers and agricultural producers to
transport commodities and finished goods to customers in both domestic and international markets. This
section on air reliant activities signifies the contribution of SFO to economic development in the Bay Area
by enabling regional firms to sell products across the U.S. and the world, and thereby maximize shares of
national and international trade. Without the services offered at SFO (and if the similar scale of air services
is not taken up by another regional airport), companies in the Bay Area that produce and ship products
would find markets limited and market shares curtailed. In turn, economic activity in the Bay Area that is
associated with production of goods shipped through SFO would be reduced.
A review of the products shipped from the Bay Area through SFO provides an insight into the cross-section
of the economy that is reliant on air cargo services at SFO, in particular Silicon Valley located in Santa Clara
county and home to major technology companies and start-ups. This analysis is based on industry specific
data from the Foreign Trade Division of the US Census Bureau and the Freight Analysis Framework of the
US DOT (Federal Highway Administration), and economic output by industry from the US Bureau of
Economic Analysis (collected by the Minnesota IMPLAN Group). 22
INTERNATIONAL EXPORTS
SFO is a gateway for the Bay Area manufacturing and other industries to deliver their products to
customers throughout world. To assess the role that SFO plays in exports from the Bay Area, the following
methodology was applied. According to data from the Foreign Trade Division (collected by WISERTrade),
27% of all California air exports that originated in California passed through SFO. This percentage was
applied to all industry sectors (three-digit NAICS) to estimate the value and types of Californian exports
going through SFO. To isolate the Bay Area specific exports, the ratio of Bay Area output to total California
output was calculated using U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) data and applied to California exports
going through SFO.23 The results represent estimates of international exports by industry that are
produced by Bay Area businesses and exported for sale through SFO. This methodology is further
explained in Appendix I.
Air-freight shipped from SFO is overwhelmingly concentrated in technology goods produced in the Bay
Area. The leading export industry is Computer and Electronics manufacturing which accounts for nearly
This definition is based on past SFO Economic Impact Studies.
At this writing, the most recent year available for both Foreign Trade Division and US Bureau of Economic Analysis information is 2015.
23 Provided through the Minnesota IMPLAN Group
21
22
2015 Economic Impact Study of San Francisco International Airport
33
two-thirds of the region’s exports by value, as indicated in Table 20. The next four ranked industries
(chemicals, machinery, transportation equipment electrical equipment and appliances) account for an
aggregate 26% of total Bay Area exports. Altogether, the top five industries account for 90% of the total
value of goods that originates in the Bay Area and are shipped through SFO.
Table 20. Top International Exported Industries
Industry
Computers and Electronics
Chemicals
Machinery
Transportation Equipment
Electrical Equipment and Appliances
All others
Total
Value (in
$Millions)
$5,705
$886
$803
$441
$226
$928
$8,990
% of Total
63.5%
9.9%
8.9%
4.9%
2.5%
10.3%
100%
Sources: U.S. Census Bureau, Foreign Trade Division collected by WISERTrade.
DOMESTIC EXPORTS
The FHWA Freight Analysis Framework (FAF) was used to identify the domestic flows of Bay Area goods
to U.S. customers via SFO. The FAF areas are represented by Combined Statistical Areas (CSAs) represent
the FAF areas—the San Francisco CSA includes 12 counties (the Bay Area plus San Benito, Santa Cruz and
San Joaquin counties). To scale the commodity flows to the nine-county Bay Area, a ratio was applied
similar to the approach described above for international exports. This ratio was calculated using the BEA
industry output for the nine-county region and was divided by the industry output for the 12-county CSA.
Even more concentrated than international exports, domestic shipments are highly concentrated in
computer and electronics and electrical equipment manufacturing—combined, these sectors account for
75% of the total Bay Area produced shipments through SFO. The second largest amount of exports is in
chemicals, which represents 9.5% of all exports as indicated in Table 21. Together, the top five industries
represent 90% of the total value of Bay Area domestic exports through SFO.
Table 21. Top Domestic Shipped Industries
Industry
Computers and Electronics
Electrical Equipment and Appliances
Chemicals
Transportation Equipment
Machinery
All Others
Total
Value (in
$millions)
$3,419
$2,592
$759
$300
$190
$766
$8,025
% of Total
42.6%
32.3%
9.5%
3.7%
2.4%
9.5%
100%
Source: Freight Analysis Framework, U.S. Department of Transportation.
2015 Economic Impact Study of San Francisco International Airport
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Combining both domestic and international products still highlights the integral part that computer and
electronics and electrical equipment manufacturing (70%) plays within the Bay Area compared to other
manufacturing sectors (Figure 10) and the significance that SFO has in enabling these products to reach
their customers.
Figure 10. Percentage of the Bay Area’s Combined Domestic and International Exports Shipped via SFO
Computers &
Electronics
53.6%
All Others
10.0%
Transportation
Equipment
4.4%
Electrical Equipment &
Appliances
16.6%
Machinery
5.8%
Chemicals
9.7%
Sources: U.S. Census Bureau, Foreign Trade Division collected by WISERTrade and Freight Analysis Framework, U.S.
Department of Transportation.
ECONOMIC CONTRIBUTION OF SFO TO THE BAY AREA
To gauge the level of impact, EDR Group used U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) data included in
IMPLAN to 1) estimate the jobs and wages associated with the domestic and international exports through
SFO and 2) determine the additional activity that percolates throughout the economy as air-reliant
businesses purchase additional goods and services from suppliers (Indirect) and employees spend their
additional income (Induced). BEA data within IMPLAN is used because it contains information about the
structural buyer-supplier relationships within the economy as well as the industries where labor income
is usually spent.
Overall $16.9 billion in domestic and international exports shipped via SFO contribute to over 27,000 jobs
and over $4.2 billion in labor income within the Bay Area (Table 22). When including purchases of supplier
goods and services (Indirect) and employee wage re-spending (Induced), the total impact of air exports
on the Bay Area economy accounts for over 92,000 jobs and $30.6 billion in business sales (output).
Appendix I describes the methodology used to develop these calculations.
2015 Economic Impact Study of San Francisco International Airport
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Table 22. Economic Value of Domestic and International Exports Originating in the Bay Area via SFO
Impact Type
Direct Effect
Indirect Effect
Induced Effect
Total Effect
Employment
27,423
25,823
38,837
92,083
Labor Income
$4,176,110,000
$2,764,871,000
$2,458,062,000
$9,399,043,000
Output
$16,970,133,000
$7,368,215,000
$6,278,660,000
$30,617,008,000
Source: U.S. Department of Commerce data provided by IMPLAN. Calculations by EDR Group.
EFFECTS ON SUPPLIERS OF GOODS AND SERVICES
Figure 11 profiles the employment supported when Bay Area air-reliant businesses purchase goods and
services from other Bay Area businesses. In total, over 25,800 jobs are dependent on Bay Area air-reliant
businesses that purchase goods and services in order to make final products that are shipped via SFO. The
majority of jobs are in the services sector, which accounts for over 13,000 of the indirect jobs.
Figure 11. Employment Impacts on Suppliers of Goods and Services (Indirect)
Service
Trade
Manufacturing
Tranp., Inform., & Utilities
Government
Construction
Agriculture
Mining
0
4,000
8,000
12,000
16,000
Source: U.S. Department of Commerce data provided by IMPLAN. Calculations by EDR Group.
At a finer level of BEA industry detail, purchases made by Bay Area air-reliant businesses are concentrated
in wholesale trade, administrative support, professional, scientific and technical services, management of
companies, and computers and electronics. As shown in Table 23, these five industries represent 61% of
the total jobs supported by air reliant business purchases. Nearly 39% of the job impacts are spread across
other industries indicating that the dependence on Bay Area businesses that use SFO is widespread across
the majority of the local economy.
2015 Economic Impact Study of San Francisco International Airport
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Table 23. Impacts on Suppliers of Goods and Services (Indirect) by BEA Industry
Industry Category
Jobs
Wholesale trade
Administrative Support
Professional, Scientific., and Technical Services
Management of Companies
Computer and Electronics
Government
Repair and Maintenance
Food and Beverage
Fabricated Metals
Construction
Rest of Others
Total
4,439
4,001
3,325
2,277
1,734
987
718
710
674
628
6,331
25,823
% of
Total
17%
15%
13%
9%
7%
4%
3%
3%
3%
2%
25%
100%
Source: U.S. Department of Commerce data provided by IMPLAN. Calculations by EDR Group.
OVERVIEW OF INTERNATIONAL AIR FREIGHT ACTIVITY
SFO plays an important role in enabling goods produced in the nine-county region to be exported to
various international markets. Approximately 98% of all international exports from the nine-county region
pass through SFO while some residual values are exported via other nearby airports such as Oakland
(1.2%) and San Jose International (1.2%). Figure 12 shows that approximately 27% (by value) of all freight
exports leaving the country via SFO come from the nine-county region. The remaining 73% comes from
the rest of California and neighboring states.
Figure 12. Regional Share of SFO Export Traffic
Nine-County
Region
27%
California and
Neighboring
States
73%
Based on 2013 exports, all commodities and value of goods shipped.
Source: EDR Group vFreight, using WiserTrade and IMPLAN data.
2015 Economic Impact Study of San Francisco International Airport
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The 27% of export traffic from the nine-county Bay Area primarily comes from Santa Clara, San Mateo,
and Alameda counties. Figure 13 below highlights the proportional share originating from each county for
both electronics and all freight.
Figure 13. Bay Area Exports by County for Electronics and All Freight (2013)
8,000
7,000
Electronics
All Other Commodities
6,000
Exports ($M)
5,000
4,000
3,000
2,000
1,000
­
Santa Clara
Alameda
San Mateo
Sonoma
Contra Costa
Solano
San Francisco
Napa
Marin
Source: EDR Group vFreight, using WiserTrade and IMPLAN data.
SFO CONNECTS THE BAY AREA TO DOMESTIC MARKETS
SFO plays an important role in the Bay Area nine-county region by facilitating trade between domestic
and international partners. Chapter 2 outlines the role SFO plays in international trade for all trading
partners in the United States and Chapter 6 outlines the economic contribution that SFO provides to the
nine-county region as a whole. This appendix outlines the role SFO plays in domestic and international
trade with additional insights into domestic market trading partners and exports by each county in the Bay
Area region. These additional insights are made possible using EDRG’s proprietary vFreight database.
The vFreight database comprises multiple freight data sources including economic input-output models
which enables freight information (e.g. origin, destination, mode and commodities) to be developed at a
county level (Table 24). vFreight makes use of Department of Commerce data within IMPLAN using
production and consumption trade flows by industry and by county as a mechanism to allocate regionally
aggregated freight flows down the county level of detail. vFreight uses the Federal Highway
Administration (FHWA) Freight Analysis Framework (FAF) data to generate county-to-county domestic
freight flows by mode.
2015 Economic Impact Study of San Francisco International Airport
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Table 24. Core Sources of Domestic Flows in vFreight
Data Source
Freight Analysis Framework, U.S. Department of
Transportation
IMPLAN (based on U.S. Department of Commerce
data)
Oak Ridge National Laboratory
EDR Group
Function
Commodity origins and destinations1
Mode
Commodity production and consumption by
county
Intercounty transportation impedances
Gravity model to account for distances
Note: FAF geography are MSAs and “rest of state.”
IMPLAN data are used to allocate MSA and “rest of state” totals by commodity group to county levels.
Source: EDR Group.
1
Although the most current vFreight data is 2013, it provides detailed insights into domestic and
international trading partners with the nine-county region as well as specific freight flows for each county
within the Bay Area region. Although these insights are not based on 2015 data, the general relationships
illustrated in this section are not expected to change significantly within the next two years of updated
data.
COMMODITIES SHIPPED FROM SFO TO DOMESTIC MARKETS
Outbound commodities shipped to domestic U.S. markets via SFO are concentrated primarily in
electronics (74%), followed by precision instruments (16%) and textiles/leather (6%) as shown in Table 25.
The top two inbound shipments from other domestic trading partners are also electronics (42%) and
precision instruments (17%), however, the commodity mix is slightly more diversified across other
commodities such as transportation equipment (11%), milled grain products (4%), pharmaceuticals (4%),
and chemical products (2%).
Because electronics (inbound and outbound through SFO) are both material inputs and final demand
outputs of industry activity within the nine-county region (Table 25), it is important to understand what
is included in this commodity classification. The two-digit standard classification of transportation goods
code system (SCTG) for electronics is defined as “Electronic and Other Electrical Equipment and
Components, and office Equipment,” which includes everything from office and kitchen electronics,
electric conductors and parts, all the way to computers and related equipment. When using 43 2-digit
SCTG commodity codes, a wide range of commodity types may be included within a specific code, which
is why electronics has such a strong ranking presence, as illustrated in Figure 14.
2015 Economic Impact Study of San Francisco International Airport
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Table 25. Outbound and Inbound Commodities to/from the Nine-County Bay Area
Outbound Commodities
Inbound Commodities
$4,324
Short
tons
('000's)
11.8
$1,711
Short
tons
('000's)
12.1
Precision instruments
$934
9.1
Precision instruments
$691
8.2
Textiles/leather
$335
11.5
Transport equipment
$430
0.1
Machinery
$43
0.3
Milled grain products
$160
11.2
Pharmaceuticals
$34
0.7
Pharmaceuticals
$153
2.3
$143
14.8
Chemical products
$86
5.3
$5,813
48.2
Motorized vehicles
$76
3.7
$784
25.1
$4,091
68.0
2013
$ millions)
Commodity
Electronics
Rest of Others
Total
Commodity
Electronics
2013
($ millions)
Rest of Others
Total
Figure 14. Inbound and Outbound Commodity Flows by Value from the Nine-County Region
7,000
Inbound
6,000
Outbound
5,000
4,000
3,000
2,000
1,000
­
Electronics
Other Commodities
Source: EDR Group vFreight, using Freight Analysis Framework of U.S. DOT and IMPLAN data.
COUNTY BY COUNTY COMMODITY MOVEMENTS
Domestic trading is illustrated by thematic maps (Figure 14 through Figure 18), which highlight patterns
of air freight shipments to and from the nine-county region. Figure 15 and Figure 16 illustrate outbound
goods, which represent sales from Bay Area businesses facilitated by shipment from SFO to domestic
markets. Outbound air shipments from the nine-county region to domestic destinations show that the
major metropolitan destinations of these shipments include Boston, Buffalo, Columbia, Greenville,
Houston, Indianapolis, Los Angeles, and Phoenix. Figure 17 and Figure 18 illustrate incoming shipments,
which represent goods shipped for use by Bay Area industries or for domestic consumer purchases.
2015 Economic Impact Study of San Francisco International Airport
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Figure 15 and Figure 17 profile sales and incoming air shipments, respectively, for all commodity groups
between the Bay Area and counties across the United States. Due to the high level of value concentrated
in electronics for the Bay Area, Figure 16 and Figure 18 show the sales and acquisition of electronics
commodities between the Bay Area and counties across the nation.
Outbound air shipments from the nine-county region to domestic destinations show that the major
metropolitan destinations of these shipments include Boston, Buffalo, Columbia, Greenville, Houston,
Indianapolis, Los Angeles and Phoenix.
Figure 15. Domestic Destinations of Outbound Air Freight All Commodities (From SFO Nine-County
Catchment Region)
Figure 16. Domestic Destinations of Outbound Electronics Air Freight (From SFO Nine-County
Catchment Region)
2015 Economic Impact Study of San Francisco International Airport
41
The major regions for inbound shipments into SFO originate from the Boston, Chicago, Denver, Los
Angeles, Phoenix, and Portland metro areas.
Figure 17. Domestic Origins Inbound Air Freight All Commodities (to SFO Nine-County Catchment
Region)
Figure 18. Domestic Origins Inbound Electronics Air Freight (to SFO Nine-County Catchment Region)
2015 Economic Impact Study of San Francisco International Airport
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CHAPTER 6: TAX IMPACTS GENERATED BY ACTIVITIES AT SFO
The income and business sales produced by economic activities at SFO in turn generate federal, state,
county, and municipal tax revenues. This chapter presents estimates of state and local tax impacts from
airport activities, as well as federal aviation taxes derived from aviation services. 24
STATE AND LOCAL TAX IMPACTS
The state and local tax revenues linked to operations at SFO totaled $2.8 billion in 2015, including $1.5
billion from direct activities and $1.3 billion from purchases of supplier goods and services (Indirect) and
re-spending of worker income (Induced). Tax revenues are estimated using effective tax rates calculated
by BEA and U.S. Census data (as organized through IMPLAN) as well by taking into account California
publications, including the Governor’s Budget Summary – 2015-16, Comprehensive Annual Financial
Report of the State Controller’s Office, and the County of San Mateo. Appendix II includes a breakout of
tax revenues by county where applicable.
Table 26. Estimated 2012 State and Local Tax Impacts (in $ millions)
$563
Indirect / Induced
Activities
$306
$7
$14
$20
Visitor Spending
$644
$324
$968
Air-Reliant Businesses
$316
$664
$980
$1,530
$1,307
$2,837
Impact Category
On-Airport
Construction
Total Taxes
Direct Activities
Total Activities
$869
Sources: Totals may not sum due to rounding. Based on information from Regional Economic Accounts (REA) and
National Income and Product Accounts (NIPA) from the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and Consumer
Expenditure Survey (CES) and the Annual Survey of State and Local Government Finances (SLGF) from the U.S. Census
Bureau.
FEDERAL AVIATION TAXES
Aviation operations at SFO generated more than $1.2 billion dollars in federal taxes including $395 million
from taxes on international and domestic passengers and $821 million in U.S. Customs revenue from
customs duties on international air cargo shipments (Table 27). These tax revenues are remitted to the
U.S. Department of the Treasury and may not directly benefit the Bay Area or the State of California.
24
Data developed in this chapter should be considered as order of magnitude estimates. As in previous economic impact studies
for SFO, tax impacts are derived from per-capita measures.
2015 Economic Impact Study of San Francisco International Airport
43
Table 27. Estimated 2012 Federal Aviation Tax Revenues
Type of Tax
Charges/Fees
Customs and Immigration
$5.50 and $7 per passenger
International Arrival and Departure Tax
$17.80 per passenger
$4.00 per passenger and 7.5% of
airfare
$5.60 per passenger
Domestic Passenger Taxes*
Sept. 11th security fee
Sub-Total Passenger Related Taxes
U.S. Customs Revenue (International Cargo)
Customs Revenues (U.S. ITC)
Total**
Revenues
in millions
$29
% of
Total
2%
$83
7%
$229
19%
$53
4%
$395
32%
$821
68%
$1,216
100%
Notes: *Includes U.S. Government Segment tax. Does not include Domestic Transportation tax (7.5% of airfare cost).
**Table does not include domestic cargo waybill. This exclusion is due to volatility in the domestic cargo weight and
value calculations for 2015 and the difficulty in estimating the cost of cargo shipped as this study was being
completed.
Sources: Federal Aviation Administration, www.airlines.org, and www.WiserTrade.com.
2015 Economic Impact Study of San Francisco International Airport
44
CHAPTER 7: DISTRIBUTION OF IMPACTS BY BAY AREA COUNTIES
This chapter presents the distribution of direct jobs and income as well as the distribution of tax benefits
among Bay Area counties for on-airport and visitor spending categories. Local impacts are based on a
sample of almost 24,000 on-airport employees by zip code from interviews with airport employers and
visitor impacts based on the passenger survey.
ON-AIRPORT EFFECT AMONG BAY AREA COUNTIES
Table 28 and Table 29 show estimates of jobs, payroll (labor income), and business revenues (output)
associated with each of the nine Bay Area counties that are generated by on-airport economic activity. In
Table 28, direct and induced employment and wages are allocated to the counties based on the residence
of employees of the Airport Commission staff, its contract workers and tenants. Due to the location of
SFO, all direct business revenues (direct output) are generated in San Mateo County (Table 29). Economic
impacts (employment, payroll and business revenues) associated with supplier purchases (indirect) were
applied proportionally to each county based on relative employment levels compared to the Bay Area
region.
Table 28. Employment and Labor Income Impacts of On-airport Tenants by County
County
Alameda
Contra
Costa
Marin
Napa
San
Francisco
Impact
Type
Direct
Indirect
Induced
Total
Direct
Indirect
Induced
Total
Direct
Indirect
Induced
Total
Direct
Indirect
Induced
Total
Employ
ment
5,056
2,442
2,446
9,943
2,395
1,308
1,159
4,862
204
487
99
790
115
251
56
422
Direct
Indirect
Induced
Total
6,097
2,160
2,949
11,206
Labor Income
$325,471,000
$209,943,000
$177,188,000
$712,602,000
$154,206,000
$112,477,000
$83,950,000
$350,633,000
$13,113,000
$41,901,000
$7,139,000
$62,153,000
$7,414,000
$21,620,000
$4,036,000
$33,070,000
$392,526,000
$185,708,000
$213,693,000
$791,927,000
Impact
Type
Direct
Indirect
Induced
Total
Direct
Indirect
Induced
Total
Direct
Indirect
Induced
Total
Direct
Indirect
Induced
Total
Employ
ment
11,238
1,352
5,436
18,025
1,204
3,240
582
5,026
1,036
448
501
1,985
183
732
89
1,004
$723,467,000
$116,230,000
$393,859,000
$1,233,556,000
$77,519,000
$278,546,000
$42,202,000
$398,267,000
$66,726,000
$38,487,000
$36,326,000
$141,539,000
$11,802,000
$62,904,000
$6,425,000
$81,131,000
Outside
Bay Area
Direct
Indirect
Induced
Total
10,050
4,300
4,862
19,213
$647,033,000
$294,537,000
$352,248,000
$1,293,818,000
Total
Direct
Indirect
Induced
Total
37,578
16,720
18,179
72,476
$2,419,277,000
$1,362,353,000
$1,317,066,000
$5,098,696,000
County
San
Mateo
Santa
Clara
Solano
Sonoma
Labor Income
Sources: Airport Tenant Survey, Data Provided by SFO and U.S. Department of Commerce data provided by IMPLAN.
Calculations by EDR Group.
2015 Economic Impact Study of San Francisco International Airport
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Table 29. Business Revenues Impacts of On-airport Tenants by Bay Area County
County
Alameda
Contra Costa
Marin
Napa
San Francisco
Impact Type
Direct
Indirect
Induced
Total
Direct
Indirect
Induced
Total
Direct
Indirect
Induced
Total
Direct
Indirect
Induced
Total
Direct
Indirect
Induced
Total
Business
Revenues
$0
$510,407,000
$473,235,000
$983,642,000
$0
$273,450,000
$224,215,000
$497,665,000
$0
$101,868,000
$19,066,000
$120,934,000
$0
$52,561,000
$10,780,000
$63,341,000
$0
$451,486,000
$570,732,000
$1,022,218,000
County
San Mateo
Santa Clara
Solano
Sonoma
Outside Bay
Area in CA
Total
Impact Type
Direct
Indirect
Induced
Total
Direct
Indirect
Induced
Total
Direct
Indirect
Induced
Total
Direct
Indirect
Induced
Total
Direct
Indirect
Induced
Total
Direct
Indirect
Induced
Total
Business
Revenues
$7,527,914,000
$282,574,000
$1,051,921,000
$8,862,409,000
$0
$677,190,000
$112,712,000
$789,902,000
$0
$93,568,000
$97,019,000
$190,587,000
$0
$152,931,000
$17,160,000
$170,091,000
$0
$808,254,000
$940,785,000
$1,749,039,000
$7,527,914,000
$3,404,289,000
$3,517,625,000
$14,449,828,000
Sources: Airport Tenant Survey, Data Provided by SFO and U.S. Department of Commerce data provided by IMPLAN.
Calculations by EDR Group.
2015 Economic Impact Study of San Francisco International Airport
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VISITOR SPENDING
The visitor spending survey conducted at SFO documented the destinations of visitors who arrive in
California through SFO. Table 30 indicates the economic impacts associated with visitor spending for each
county.
Table 30. Economic Impacts of Visitor Spending by Bay Area County
Bay Area County
Alameda
Contra Costa
Marin
Napa
San Francisco
San Mateo
Santa Clara
Solano
Sonoma
Total
Impact Type
Direct
Indirect
Induced
Total
Direct
Indirect
Induced
Total
Direct
Indirect
Induced
Total
Direct
Indirect
Induced
Total
Direct
Indirect
Induced
Total
Direct
Indirect
Induced
Total
Direct
Indirect
Induced
Total
Direct
Indirect
Induced
Total
Direct
Indirect
Induced
Total
Direct
Indirect
Induced
Total
Employment
6,491
1,071
1,779
9,342
4,514
745
1,237
6,497
2,603
430
714
3,747
3,748
619
1,027
5,394
49,549
8,179
13,584
71,313
9,981
1,648
2,736
14,365
10,322
1,704
2,830
14,856
636
105
174
915
3,748
619
1,027
5,394
Labor Income
$250,671,000
$82,582,000
$109,627,000
$442,880,000
$174,324,000
$57,430,000
$76,238,000
$307,992,000
$100,532,000
$33,120,000
$43,966,000
$177,618,000
$144,734,000
$47,682,000
$63,297,000
$255,713,000
$1,913,563,000
$630,415,000
$836,866,000
$3,380,844,000
$385,471,000
$126,992,000
$168,579,000
$681,042,000
$398,627,000
$131,326,000
$174,333,000
$704,286,000
$24,549,000
$8,088,000
$10,736,000
$43,373,000
$144,735,000
$47,682,000
$63,297,000
$255,714,000
Visitor Spending
$690,787,000
$208,324,000
$298,896,000
$1,198,007,000
$480,393,000
$144,874,000
$207,861,000
$833,128,000
$277,042,000
$83,549,000
$119,873,000
$480,464,000
$398,849,000
$120,283,000
$172,578,000
$691,710,000
$5,273,303,000
$1,590,294,000
$2,281,703,000
$9,145,300,000
$1,062,262,000
$320,351,000
$459,630,000
$1,842,243,000
$1,098,515,000
$331,284,000
$475,316,000
$1,905,115,000
$67,651,000
$20,402,000
$29,272,000
$117,325,000
$398,853,000
$120,284,000
$172,580,000
$691,717,000
91,591
15,120
25,110
131,821
$3,537,206,000
$1,165,317,000
$1,546,939,000
$6,249,462,000
$9,747,655,000
$2,939,645,000
$4,217,709,000
$16,905,009,000
Sources: Airport Visitor Spending Survey, Data Provided by SFO and U.S. Department of Commerce data provided by
IMPLAN. Calculations by EDR Group.
2015 Economic Impact Study of San Francisco International Airport
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TAX IMPACTS BY BAY AREA COUNTY
Tax revenues including sales, property (business and labor), corporate and income taxes are collected
from on-airport tenants and the workers that they employ directly at SFO. Table 31 indicates the tax
revenues generated from each impact type (direct, Indirect/Induced, and Total) by county. Direct tax
revenues paid by individuals and households are apportioned according to place of residence of Airport
Commission staff, contact employees and tenants. Direct taxes paid by businesses originate in San Mateo
County due to the location of the Airport.
Table 31. Tax Revenues by County for On-airport Tenants
Bay Area
Counties
Alameda
$9,311,000
Indirect /
Induced
$48,698,000
$58,009,000
Contra Costa
$4,412,000
$24,548,000
$28,960,000
Marin
$375,000
$5,756,000
$6,131,000
Napa
$212,000
$3,020,000
$3,232,000
$11,230,000
$51,074,000
$62,304,000
San Mateo
$514,672,000
$68,490,000
$583,162,000
Santa Clara
$2,218,000
$37,527,000
$39,745,000
Solano
$1,909,000
$9,467,000
$11,376,000
$338,000
$8,038,000
$8,376,000
$18,511,000
$49,461,000
$67,972,000
$563,188,000
$306,079,000
$869,267,000
San Francisco
Sonoma
Outside Bay Area
Total
Direct
Total
Notes: Direct tax revenues shown in San Mateo County include an estimated $33 million in Possessory Interest Tax
revenues.
Sources: Governor’s Budget Summary; State Controller’s Office; the County of San Mateo; Bureau of Economic
Analysis’ (BEA) National Income and Product Accounts (NIPA), the U.S. Census Bureau (Consumer Expenditure Survey,
Annual Survey of State and Local Government Finances); U.S. Department of Commerce data provided by IMPLAN;
Airport Tenant Survey; and Information Provided by SFO. Calculations by EDR Group.
Tax revenues including sales, property (business and labor), corporate, and income taxes are also
generated by visitors (sales tax) and businesses that provide goods and services to domestic and
international visitors. Table 32, below, outlines the tax revenues provided by each county by business in
the hotel, restaurant, transportation, entertainment, and retail industries (direct), the businesses that
support these industries (indirect), and the tax revenue generated by employees spending their earned
income (induced).
2015 Economic Impact Study of San Francisco International Airport
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Table 32. Tax Revenues by County for Visitor Spending
Alameda
$35,585,000
Indirect /
Induced
$24,923,000
Contra Costa
$24,747,000
$17,332,000
$42,079,000
Marin
$14,271,000
$9,995,000
$24,267,000
Napa
$20,546,000
$14,390,000
$34,936,000
$271,645,000
$190,255,000
$461,900,000
San Mateo
$54,721,000
$38,325,000
$93,046,000
Santa Clara
$56,588,000
$39,633,000
$96,221,000
Solano
$3,485,000
$2,441,000
$5,926,000
Sonoma
$20,546,000
$14,390,000
$34,936,000
$502,134,000
$351,684,000
$853,819,000
Bay Area Counties
San Francisco
Total Taxes
Direct
Total
$60,508,000
Sources: Governor’s Budget Summary; State Controller’s Office; Bureau of Economic Analysis’ (BEA) National Income
and Product Accounts (NIPA), the U.S. Census Bureau (Consumer Expenditure Survey, Annual Survey of State and
Local Government Finances); U.S. Department of Commerce data provided by IMPLAN; and SFO Airport Visitor
Survey. Calculations by EDR Group.
2015 Economic Impact Study of San Francisco International Airport
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2015 Economic Impact Study of San Francisco International Airport
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APPENDIX I
METHODOLOGY FOR THE ANALYSIS
OF OVERALL ECONOMIC IMPACTS
Airport jobs and commerce on the Airport premises create strong economic stimuli for the Bay Area. This
airport business activity itself generates an increased demand for other local goods and services. Not only
do the businesses based on the Airport pay local and state taxes, but the off-airport businesses that
depend upon airport-based activity pay taxes as well. As shown in this study, the direct business activity
and subsequent multiplier effects have a strong overall impact on the economy.
All economic impacts in this report are described using the measures of jobs, payroll and business sales.
The study quantifies three distinct categories of economic benefits that result from SFO-related activities:
direct, indirect and induced effects, as described below.
Direct impacts stem from the activity that is directly related to the provision of aviation services, visitor
spending or the activity of aviation-reliant businesses. For example, the direct impacts of on-airport
tenants include the number of persons they employ on the Airport, the wages and benefits paid to those
workers and their business sales. Similarly, the direct impacts of air visitors include the money they spend
on services and supplies and the jobs and payroll supported by those expenditures. Most of the direct
impacts measured in this study occur on-airport; but some, such as visitor spending and the benefits
produced by aviation dependent businesses, occur off-airport.
Indirect and induced impacts, which are sometimes called “multiplier impacts,” result from: (1) a portion
of business sales used for “business-to-business” purchases of goods and services (indirect effects); and
(2) the recirculation of worker incomes and business expenditures in the broader Bay Area economy
(induced effects). For example, an airport restaurant may buy supplies from a Bay Area produce vendor.
This purchase represents income (i.e., new business sales) to the produce supplier, which uses a portion
of that income to pay its workers and buy additional goods and services from other businesses in the
region. In addition, airport workers spend their wages on other items such as housing, retail purchases,
and services. Those expenditures in turn support jobs in those industries, whose workers then spend their
salaries in the Bay Area. These successive rounds of spending and job creation represent the indirect
impacts (business-to-business) and induced impacts (spending of wages). This study specifically measured
the indirect and induced impacts that occur in the county economies of the Bay Area. The discussions of
total impacts are based on the following analyses and are illustrated in Figure 19.
2015 Economic Impact Study of San Francisco International Airport
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Figure 19. Elements of Economic Impacts and Interrelationships
Business and Government
Agencies Located at SFO
Direct Payroll
at SFO
Spending by Visitors
to Bay Area via SFO
Purchases of
Goods & Services
Visitor Purchases of
Goods & Services
(Meals, Hotels,
Transportation, Retail)
Direct Effect
Direct Effect
Jobs at the Airport
Income to Workers
Jobs in Retail & Services
Income to Workers
Indirect Effects (Off-Site)
Sales at Supplier Businesses:
Jobs and Income
to their Workers
Induced Effect (Off-Site)
Spending of Direct + Indirect Worker Income
on Consumer Purchases:
Sales at Other Businesses
Jobs & Income to Workers
Total Economic Impacts
Sum of Direct + Indirect + Induced Jobs & Income
Fiscal Impacts:
Government Tax Revenues
Flow of Causation
Calculation of Total Ef f ect
Source: EDR Group.
2015 Economic Impact Study of San Francisco International Airport
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SUPPLIERS OF GOODS AND SERVICES (INDIRECT MULTIPLIER EFFECTS)
Orders from Businesses at the Airport
Activities occurring at the Airport generate additional orders for goods and services from suppliers
including orders for:
• Printing and publishing for the Airport operator and the airlines
• Banking, insurance, legal, accounting, and technical services for airport businesses
• Off-site bus and parking services for SFO employees
• Food products for airport restaurants
• Wholesale merchandise to be sold by airport stores
• Furniture and equipment for offices, hotels, restaurants, and stores located at the Airport.
Orders from Off-Airport Businesses Serving Air Travelers
Activities serving air travelers outside of the Airport also generate additional orders for goods and services
from suppliers for:
• Fueling and maintenance services for use by off-airport taxis, rental cars, tour buses, and public
transportation
• Construction and support operations of convention and hospitality facilities for convention visitors
• Food products for off-airport restaurants
• Wholesale merchandise to be sold by off-airport stores
• Furniture and equipment for off-airport hotels, restaurants, and stores.
RE-SPENDING OF WORKER INCOME (INDUCED MULTIPLIER EFFECTS)
The workers at SFO, at off-airport businesses serving air visitors, and at supplier businesses earn income,
and most of that income is re-spent on consumer purchases, which support additional jobs within the Bay
Area. Examples of these purchases include:
• Retail purchases of food, clothing, home furnishings, cars, electronic devices, computers, and
other products
• Purchases of services spanning haircuts, cleaning, car repair, and insurance.
2015 Economic Impact Study of San Francisco International Airport
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CALCULATING THE DOMESTIC AND INTERNATIONAL VALUES FROM CARGO
ORIGINATING IN THE BAY AREA AND SHIPPED THROUGH SFO
The combined $17 billion of international and domestic exports through SFO provides a significant direct
contribution to the Bay Area economy as well as additional activity through economic linkages. To
estimate the level of impact, EDR Group layered three sets of data – the Foreign Trade Database (FTD) of
the U.S. Bureau of the Census (tabulated by WISERTrade), the multi-modal Freight Analysis Framework
(FAF) of the U.S. Federal Highway Administration, and U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) data
included in IMPLAN to:
1) Estimate the jobs and wages associated with the domestic and international exports through SFO;
and
2) Determine the additional activity that percolates throughout the economy as air-reliant
businesses purchase additional goods and services from suppliers (Indirect) and employees spend
their additional income (Induced).
FTD data aggregated by WISERTrade was the basis of estimating the weight and value of goods produced
in the Bay Area and exported from SFO to international markets. FTD provides total exports by commodity
and state of origin, and the total value of California exports shipped through SFO. WISERTrade also
provides total value and weight by commodity for all shipments from SFO, but not at a commodity level
by point of origin. Using IMPLAN data, the ratios of output by commodity were calculated for the ninecounty Bay Area compared to California totals. This calculation estimated the “share” of California
produced air exports with an approximate point of origin in the Bay Area. The calculation was constrained
by both the value and weight reported by WISERTrade of exports by commodity from SFO and the weight
of international shipments from SFO taken from the flysfo website.
FAF was the basis of estimating domestic cargo shipments. FAF provides domestic air shipments of
commodities that originate in the twelve county San Jose-San Francisco-Oakland, CA Combined Statistical
Area. Using IMPLAN data, output by commodity for the nine-county Bay Area were compared to the
twelve county CMSA to estimate the “share” of each commodity shipped from the CSA.
BEA data within IMPLAN profiles the structural buyer-supplier relationships within the economy as well
as the industries where labor income is usually spent. Figure 20 illustrates the methodology of calculating
the domestic and international values from the Bay Area through SFO.
2015 Economic Impact Study of San Francisco International Airport
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Figure 20. Methodology to Estimate Air Dependent Contribution to Bay Area Economy
3. Freight shipments
by value
2. Geography
1. Calculations
MAJOR SOURCES OF DATA USED IN THIS STUDY
The discussion of total impacts is based on the following analyses conducted specifically for this study:
25
1.
A survey of all airport tenants and the data provided by staff of the San Francisco Airport
Commission. These data provide profiles of on-airport jobs by establishment, type of business
activity, and place of residence by zip code for airport and tenant employees.
2.
Polaris Research conducted surveys of airport travelers were conducted by Polaris Research. The
survey profiled trip purposes, international or domestic origins, segmentation of visitors from
local residents and connecting passengers and the amount of money in the Bay Area spent by
visitors using the Airport.
3.
Air freight analyses are based on data from SFO, WISERTrade using data from U.S. Census Bureau,
Foreign Trade Division 25 and the Freight Analysis Framework (FAF) to develop a detailed profile of
air exports from SFO by commodity and origin of movement. Detailed data from FAF are not
available for the Bay Area alone (statewide for the Foreign Trade Division and a 12 county
combined statistical area (CSA) for FAF). Therefore, the detailed commodity flows found in the
data sets are proportioned based on the output per industry (converted from commodities) of
the Bay Area.
The World Institute for Strategic Economic Research (WISERTrade), formed July 1, 2004, to continue the international trade
data work of its predecessor, MISER, was chosen by the U.S. Census Bureau to be one of its first Business and Industry Data
Centers with special focus on foreign trade statistics. See www.wisertrade.org.
2015 Economic Impact Study of San Francisco International Airport
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4.
Econometric models for the nine-county Bay Area are based on the IMPLAN Economic Model
System. IMPLAN is used to estimate wages and sales (or budget expenditures for public entities)
for airport tenants, where only employment totals were available. Labor income and sales and/or
expenditures per worker are derived primarily from U.S. Department of Commerce (BEA is a part
of the Commerce Department) and Department of Labor data sets and are county-specific.
IMPLAN is also used to derive multiplier effects, including business orders to suppliers generated
by on-airport businesses, off-airport businesses serving airport visitors, and airport-reliant
businesses, and business sales generated by the spending of the additional workers’ income on
consumer purchases.
2015 Economic Impact Study of San Francisco International Airport
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APPENDIX II
SUMMARY OF IMPLAN SECTORING
To estimate the full range of direct effects, and the indirect and induced (“multiplier”) economic effects,
this study utilized the IMPLAN model system of MIG, Inc. IMPLAN is now the most widely used inputoutput economic modeling system in the U.S., with a client list of 500 public and private agencies including
several federal agencies and numerous state agencies. It utilizes U.S. Commerce Department ("National
Income and Product Accounts") data on inter-industry technology relationships (also known as inputoutput structural matrices), countywide employment and income data from the Bureau of Economic
Analysis (BEA) and Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), and its own industry and county-specific estimates of
local purchasing rates (“regional purchase coefficients”). It is enhanced over most other input-output
models in that it also includes coverage of public sector activity and consumer activity (reflected in its
“social accounting matrix”). The industry detail is at the level of 536 industries, and is based on categories
of the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), which correspond to two to five digit groups in the North
American Industry Classification System (NAICS).
For this study, the direct job, payroll, and business revenue effects for on-airport and visitor spending
were documented through surveys completed for this project and then assigned to specific sector groups,
based on EDR Group’s experience in aviation. SFO’s support of air reliant industries was documented
through databases maintained by the U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Department of Transportation. The
IMPLAN model was then calibrated for the nine-county Bay Area, as well as for each county within the
region, and a model calibrated for a defined region outside the Bay Area to measure additional visitor
spending. The result was an estimate of the indirect and induced (and overall) job, business revenue and
income impacts for each segment of airport beneficiary. The analysis of retail impacts was adjusted to
account for retail markup margins and the concentration of sales in airports and in visitor industries. Retail
portions of multiplier effects also incorporate these margins.
Regardless of whether economic impacts are measured in terms of jobs, income or business sales, these
impacts can be classified into three categories:
Direct economic effects are the changes occurring at the project site as a direct consequence of the public
investment, project or program. This is represented as the net increase in business activity associated with
business at the SFO, initial visitor spending at off-airport businesses in each county’s hospitality sector,
and the sale revenues earned by shippers who route air cargo through SFO.
Indirect economic effects are the broader effects on business activity for off-site goods and services
supplied to the directly affected businesses.
Induced economic effects are further shifts in spending on food, clothing, shelter and other consumer
goods and services, because of the change in workers and payroll of directly and indirectly affected
businesses.
EDR Group assembled classifications of the 536 sectors in the IMPLAN modeling package to best mirror
types of industries on SFO, types of visitor spending and industries related to commodities exported from
SFO. The classification schemes used for this study for on-airport and visitor spending impacts are shown
in Table 33 and Table 34.
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Table 33. Industry Classification of On-Airport Industries
Airport Tenants Classification
Passenger Airlines
Freight Airlines / Couriers
Fixed Based Operator (FBO)
Local Government
State Government
Federal Government
Distribution
Wholesale
Security
Construction
Retail
Food and Beverage (includes Catering Firms)
Car Rental
Ground Transportation (incl. taxis, limos, buses,
vans, and transit)
Other
Services
Reliant Services
IMPLAN Sectors Used
Air Transportation
Air Transportation Couriers
Support activities for transportation
State and Local Government
Immigration, TSA, FBI
US Customs and Border Patrol (CBP)
National Weather Service
Trucking/Warehousing
Wholesale Trade business
Security Aviation Firms
Highways and Streets
Commercial Structures
Non-residential structures
Maintenance and Repair
Electronics/Appliance Stores
Food and Beverage
Health and Labor Care
Clothing Stores
Sporting Goods Stores
Misc. Retail
Full-service restaurants
Limited-service restaurants
All other food and drinking places
Car Rental
Transit and ground passenger transp.
Medical Clinic
Vending Machines
Educational institutions
Electronic repair services
Insurance
Medical services
Other Support Services
Telecommunications
Waste Management
Architectural/Engineering
Business support
Computer systems design services
Facilities support
Financial Services
Management, scientific, and Technical.
Parking and Misc.
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Table 34. Industry Classification of Visitor-Serving Industries
Visitor Spending
Classification
IMPLAN Sectors Used
Electronics/Appliance Stores
Food and Beverage
Health and Labor
Retail
Clothing Stores
Sporting Goods
General Merchandise
Misc. Retail
Performing Arts
Spectator Sports
Artists, writers, and performers
Entertainment
Museums, zoos, and parks
Amusement parks and arcades
Gambling industries
Fitness and recreational sports centers
Bowling centers
Other amusement / recreation
Full-service restaurants
Restaurant
Hotel
Limited-service restaurants
All other food and drinking places
Hotels and motels
Other accommodations
Transit and ground passenger transportation
Transportation
Scenic and sightseeing
Support activities
Gas stations
Sources: U.S. Department of Commerce data provided by IMPLAN. Calculations by EDR Group.
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APPENDIX III
SFO TENANT AND VISITOR SURVEYS
The following pages are the survey instruments used for SFO tenants and visiting passengers. Note that
the passenger survey was administered in multiple languages.
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