Chapter 17 Special Discrete Distributions Binomial Distribution B(n,p) • Each trial results in one of two mutually exclusive outcomes. (success/failure) • There are a fixed number of trials • Outcomes of different trials are independent • The probability that a trial results in success is the same for all trials • The binomial random variable x is defined as the number of successes out of the fixed number Are these binomial distributions? 1) Toss a coin 10 times and count the number of heads Yes 2) Deal 10 cards from a shuffled deck and count the number of red cards No, probability does not remain constant 3) Two parents with genes for O and A blood types and count the number of children with blood type O No, no fixed number Toss a coin 3 times and count the number of heads Find the discrete probability distribution X P(x) 0 1 2 3 .125 .375 .375 .125 Out of 3 coins that are tossed, what is the probability of getting exactly 2 heads? Binomial Formula: n k n k P (x k ) p 1 p k Where: n n C k k Out of 3 coins that are tossed, what is the probability of getting exactly 2 heads? 3 2 1 P (x 2) 0.5 0.5 .375 2 The number of inaccurate gauges in a group of four is a binomial random variable. If the probability of a defect is 0.1, what is the probability that only 1 is defective? 4 1 3 P (x 1) 0.1 0.9 .2916 1 More than 1 is defective? P (x 1) 1 (P (0) P (1)) .0523 Calculator Steps The calculator will calculate the probability of a number of success in n trials. • 2nd DISTR – binompdf(n,p,x) The calculator will also calculate the cumulative probability. • 2nd DISTR – binomcdf(n,p,x) – This calculates the probability of getting x or fewer successes among the n trials. Binomial formulas for mean and standard deviation x np x np 1 p In a certain county, 30% of the voters are Republicans. How many Republicans would you expect in ten randomly selected voters? What is the standard deviation for this distribution? x 10(.3) 3 Republicans x 10(.3)(.7) 1.45 Republicans Geometric Distributions: • There are two mutually exclusive So what are the outcomesHow far this go? To will infinity possible values of X • Each trial is independent of the others • The probability of success remains constant for each trial. 1 2 variable 3 4 .x .is.the •X The random number of trials UNTIL the FIRST success occurs. Differences between binomial & geometric distributions • The difference between binomial and geometric properties is that there is NOT a fixed number of trials in geometric distributions! Geometric Formulas: P ( x) 1 p 1 x p 1 p x 2 p x 1 p Not on formula sheet – they will be given on quiz or test A real estate agent shows a house to prospective buyers. The probability that the house will be sold to the person is 35%. What is the probability that the agent will sell the house to the third person she shows it to? P X x 1 p x 1 p .65 31 .35 .1479 How many prospective buyers does she expect to show the house to before someone buys the house? SD? 1 1 .35 x 2.86 buyers x 2.304 buyers 2 .35 .35
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