National Air Filtration
Association
Climate Change &
Current Politics – an even
more inconvenient truth
Tom Werkema
Arkema Inc.
September 18, 2009
Climate Change
Science
What is the “greenhouse effect”?
Like the sun, the Earth also emits radiation. It is much cooler
than the sun, though, so it emits in the infrared, just like a
person, a cat, or any other body. Some of that infrared energy
may be absorbed by molecules in the atmosphere, affecting the
global energy balance.
Venus has an atmosphere
with more than 90% CO2.
It also has sulfuric acid
clouds. Its planetary
greenhouse effect is about
500°C (the atmosphere
raises the temperature by
that much).
Earth has an atmosphere with much less
CO2 than Venus. The greenhouse effect
raises its average temperature by about
30°C.
The greenhouse effect is basic physics and
it is real. What about greenhouse warming?
The Atmosphere
CCS-2
Temperatures up to 2008
Carbon dioxide 1960-2008
CO2 Emissions
10/28/02-cc5
In this July 11, 2008 photo, a giant glacier is seen making its way to the waters of Croaker
Bay on Devon Island. Arctic sea ice is melting so fast most of it could be gone in 30 years,
according to a new report to be released Friday, April 3, 2009. (AP Photo/The Canadian
Press, Jonathan Hayward, File) (Jonathan Hayward - AP)
Figure 3. Monthly March ice extent for 1979 to 2009
shows a decline of 2.7% per decade.
—Credit: National Snow and Ice Data Center
Extent of Arctic Sea Ice 1979 and
2005
Figure 5. These images
show declining sea ice
age, which indicates a
thinning Arctic sea ice
cover more vulnerable
to melting in summer.
Ice older than two
years now accounts for
less than 10% of the ice
cover.
Credit: National Snow and Ice Data Center courtesy NOAA/ESRL
Changes to clouds: the biggest cause o
uncertainty in predictions
Low clouds cool climate
High clouds warm
climate
Global warming will change cloud characteristics
and, hence, their warming or cooling effect.
This will exert a powerful feedback on climate change,
but this feedback will differ from model to model.
Antarctic Temperature Trends,
1966–2000
Components of sea-level rise
Ocean circulation in the North
Atlantic
US Hurricane Cycles Wax and Wane
2001-2005
6
12
1991-2000
5
14
1981-1990
5
1971-1980
15
4
1961-1970
12
6
1951-1960
8
1941-1950
10
1931-1940
8
14
24
19
5
1921-1930
1911-1920
13
7
1901-1910
21
4
0
Major Hurrican
All Hurricanes
17
18
10
20
30
40
Hurricanes Per Year
8.4
1995-2005
1995-2005
1931-1994
1931-1994
5.1
1905-1930
3.4
1905-1930
0
5
10
REF: Nat’l Center for Atm. Presearch July, 2007
1
0.9
0.8
0.7
0.6
0.5
CO2
0.4
0.3
0.2
0.1
0
1500
1600
1700
Date (year A.D.)
1800
1900
2000
Decay of tetrafluoroethane (T = 14 years) in
the atmosphere compared to CO2
1
0.9
0.8
0.7
0.6
0.5
CO2
0.4
0.3
0.2
HFC-134a
0.1
0
2000
2100
2200
2300
Date (year A.D.)
2400
2500
Cut-off at a 100 year Integration
Time Horizon
1
0.9
0.8
0.7
0.6
0.5
CO2
0.4
0.3
0.2
HFC-134a
0.1
0
2000
2100
2200
2300
Date (year A.D.)
2400
2500
Climate Change
International
Climate Change International
August 1990
June 1992
March/April 1995
December 1995
July 1996
December 1997
First IPCC Assessment
Rio de Janeiro, Framework
Convention on Climate
Change
Conference of Parties (1),
Berlin
Second IPCC Assessment
Conference of Parties (II),
Geneva
Conference of Parties (III),
Kyoto
Kyoto Protocol
 Controls
Emissions
 6 Greenhouse Gases
– CO2, N2O, CH4, HFCs, PFCs, SF6
 Avg.
reduction for developed
countries
– 5.2% from 1990 level
 2015
ppm
reduction-1.7ppm to 381.3
Climate Change - International
 First
Meeting of Kyoto Protocol
Parties in Montreal, November, 05
– US non Party
– First Commitment Period – 2008 thru
2012
– No Second Commitment or Period
defined
– Canadian Environment Minister was
President
Bali - 2007

Largest attended meeting ever
– More new NGO’s
 Youth,

Indigenous Peoples, Civil Society
Agreement for 2 year negotiations
– 2013 commitments and beyond
– Inclusive of US
 Under
both UNFCCC and KP – 2 tracks
 First meeting April, 2008 Bangkok
– No developing country commitments
 Weak,

voluntary language
Negotiations completed in 2009
Climate Change 2008


Parties met in Bangkok, Thailand – Accra, Ghana – Bonn,
Germany - Poznan, Poland
– Increasing emphasis on Sectoral approaches
– Proposal to add other gases NF3, HFEs, HCs – no active
discussion
 EC noted this was to reestablish jurisdiction of
Climate Change over these gases
– Awaiting new US Administration
Agreed 2009 Work Plan
– Culminates in Copenhagen, December
 Planning for Heads of States
 18,000 maximum attendees
Climate Change 2009


5 Meetings plus Copenhagen
Tabled key proposals
– Medium (2020) 25-40% and long term (2050) 50-95%
– Intellectual Property Rights proposed to be superseded
– Dozens of new institutions, funds

New charges, taxes, funds from public treasuries
– Historic responsibility, climate debt, emission debt,
shared carbon space, shared atmospheric resources, per
capita reductions
– No commitments for developing countries
– Emissions trading
– Sectoral approaches
Global Emissions Scenario
14
12
10
8
GtC/yr
6
4
Annex 1
Non Annex 1
2
0
1990
2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
Year
Current estimates for emissions growth in
Non-Annex 1 countries are even higher
IS92 a IPCC 1992
2050
Global Emissions for 550 PPM
Stabilization
14
12
10
8
GtC/yr
6
4
Annex 1
Non Annex 1
2
0
1990
2000
2010
Stabilization is not feasible without
Non-Annex 1 countries’ participation
2020
Year
2030
2040
2050
IPCC
1994
International Trade Issues

US – Secretary Chu
– Carbon tariffs to “level playing field”

China Appeals to Exclude Exports in
Climate Deal
– “rich countries buying its products should bear
responsibility for emissions in manufacturing”
– 20% of China’s emissions from exported goods
– Others: logistical nightmare, control over
production in developing countries?

Subject of House hearings on March 18
– Potential tax credits to affected industries

10 Senate D’s letter to Obama – August 7
Global Primary Energy: Reference
1,600
Exajoules/Year
1,400
1,200
1,000
Non-Biomass Renewables
Nuclear
Commercial Biomass
Coal
Natural Gas
Oil
800
600
400
200
0
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100
Stabilization scenarios developed for US Climate Change Science Program
(Draft 2006) by MIT Joint Program on Science and Policy
Year
Global Primary Energy: 550 ppmv
1,600
1,400
Exajoules/Year
1,200
Coal
Gas
Oil
1,000
800
Energy Reduction from Reference
Non-Biomass Renewables Transport
Nuclear
Commercial Biomass
Buildings
Coal: w/ CCS
Coal: w/o CCS
Industry
Natural Gas: w/ CCS
Natural Gas: w/o CCS
Oil: w/ CCS
Oil: w/o CCS
Nuc
400
Biomass
200
CCS
600
0
2000
2020
2040
Year
2060
2080
2100
Stabilization scenarios developed for US Climate Change Science Program
(Draft 2006) by MIT Joint Program on Science and Policy
The
Challenge
Country Climate
Programs
1990-2006
1990-2006
EU F Gas Regulation
Key sectors – refrigeration, airconditioning, heat pumps, highvoltage switchgear
 Reporting
– Production,imports, exports
 Marketing
& use bans limited
– Non-refillable containers
 Entered
into force July 4, 2007
EU Mobile A/C Directive
 1/1/11
no new model MAC > 150
GWP
 1/1/17 no new MAC > 150 GWP
 Tailpipe emissions separate
regulation
 <50 gms HFC/year Emission
– Harmonized leak detection test
EU Emissions Trading Scheme

EU Program
– Carbon prices have declined due to economy
– Automakers agreed to reduce new car
emissions to 130gms/km by 2012-2015
– Firms will receive > 30% carbon allowances
free until 2020
 Free
allocation for Energy Intensive Industries
exposed to C leakage
 Rest purchased at auction
– “F” gas Regulation to be discussed in 2010 for
proposal for review in 2011
Phase 2 EUA Market Prices 2005-2007
Other Developed Countries
Japan: Indicated they would start C & T in
October
 Australia: Cap and Trade by 2010

 Pushed
back to 2011
– Includes HFCs in common basket
 1100%
cost increase will simply pass thru to
consumer
– Published program draft on December 15
 Was
to implement July 1, 2010
Canada
HFC restricted to Significant New
Activity Notice lists
 Mandatory reporting in 2005
 Declared all GHGs CEPA Toxic
 2 western provinces part of WCI
 Quebec published registry, Minister
empowerment legislation in July

US Climate Change
Obama – indicative statements:
 “economy wide cap and trade”

 Committed
years
–
–
–
–
–
$150b for “clean energy” over 10
1990 levels by 2020, 80% by 2050
Has not supported KP Ratification
“make US leader in Climate Change”
Named Carol Browner, Climate Czar
Proposed listing CO2 as hazardous pollutant
US Climate Change – 2007
emissions
 Total
emissions up 17.1% since 1990
– KP – 7% decrease
 Average
2008-2012
Buildings in the Overall US Energy
Picture
From: Steve Selkowitz, Lawrence Berkeley National Lab, 2006
US Commercial Buildings Forecast
(America’s Energy Outlook 2007)
30.00
Other Uses
20.00
Office Equipment (non-PC)
Office Equipment (PC)
Refrigeration
Lighting
15.00
Cooking
Ventilation
Water Heating
Space Cooling
10.00
Space Heating
5.00
30
29
20
28
20
27
20
26
20
25
20
24
20
23
20
22
20
21
20
20
20
19
20
18
Year
20
17
20
16
20
15
20
14
20
13
20
12
20
11
20
10
20
09
20
08
20
07
20
06
20
05
20
20
04
0.00
20
Quadrillion BTUs ("Quads")
25.00
McKinsey & Company
Unlocking Energy Efficiency in the U.S.
Economy – July, 2009

Energy savings of $1.2t by 2020
– Capital cost of $520b
– 1.1 Gt CO2 reduction
– 9.1 Quad BTU end use savings


23% of projected demand
Significant barriers exist
– 1) Recognize energy efficiency as energy resource
– 2) launch portfolio of emerging, proven, pilot
approaches
– 3) identify upfront funding resources

$0.0059 per KWH + $1.12 per MMBTU over 10 years
(~8%↑)
– 4) alignment between utilities, regulators, government,
manufacturers, energy consumers
– 5) foster innovation
McKinsey & Company
Unlocking Energy Efficiency in the U.S.
Economy – July, 2009
 Energy
Consumption per unit floor
space, since 1980
– ↓ 11% residential
– ↓ 21% commercial
– Industrial Energy Consumption ↓ 41%
per GDP output
US Senate Discussions
4 Major Bills in Senate in 2008
 Converged on Lieberman-Warner (now
Boxer)
 Senate 2009 starting point either Boxer or
Waxman-Markey (House)

– 5 hearings thru August 12, 2009
– 4 Senate Committees with some jurisdiction

Senator Reid “out of Committees 9/8”
– Senate vote by 9/30
S. 3036 – June 2008
 Summary
– Cap  current in 2012
– Lower each year 2012-2050
– National emissions trading market in
2012
 Federal
record keeping in 2011
– “no net cost on Federal Gov’t”
– Encouraging complementary State, local
programs
Millions Tons CO2 EQ
7000
6000
5000
4000
3000
2000
1000
0
L-W TOTAL US CAP
S-3036
12 016 020 024 028 032 036 040 044 048
0
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
Title XV – HFCs
S- 3036
Senate Climate
Security Act
June, 2008
Millions Tons CO 2 EQ
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
S-3036
HFC CAP Maximum Amount MM TCO2
2 16 20 24 28 32 36 40 44 48
1
20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20
House – American
Climate & Energy
Security Act (ACES)
Voted June 26, 2009
ACES

Passed 219-212
– Need 218 to pass
– 44 D against, 8 R for
 3D’s
considered bill to weak
– 1428 pages – released 5 hours before debate
– Senate perspective on W/M
2
R’s on record as W/M dead-on-arrival
 Early survey put yea’s at 45, 32 nay, 23 undecided
ACES


Covers 85% of US emissions
2005 levels baseline
–
–
–
–

3% below by 2012
17% below by 2020
42% below by 2030
83% below by 2050
States not allowed to adopt C & T between 20122017
– Emissions standards allowed

Covered Gases – CO2, CH4, N2O, HFCs, PFCs, SF6,
NF3
– Any other anthropogenic gas determined by EPA
ACES

“Covered entities” – 25,000 MT CO2
– Vehicle fleets > 25,000 MT CO2
– Entities delivering electricity to energyintensive facilities

Emissions allowances vary over first 5
years
– 4,627 MMT CO2 in 2012 up to 5,482 MMT CO2
in 2016
– Decreases steadily to 1,035 MMT CO2 in 2050
and thereafter
ACES
 Compliance
Phase-In
– Many industrial stationary sources &
combustion devices not covered until
2014
– Nat’l gas local distribution covered in
2016
 Offsets
allowed from projects in US
and offshore
ACES
who gets allocations?

Consumer electricity, Natural Gas, propane, heating oil
– Electricity 2012 43.75% of total

2029, 7%
– N’ Gas 9% in 2012

2029, 1.8%
– Home heating oil, propane 1.875% in 2013






0.3% in 2029
Trade sensitive industries ~15%/year
Allowances for R & D, e- efficiency, CCS, Clean Energy
Innovation Centers, clean vehicle, int’l clean tech
deployment
Adaptation receives allowances
Anti-deforestation, administered by EPA
1% for credit for early action
ACES
what about auctions?
 Auction
– 15% each year, proceeds to low income
consumers
– Small quantities also auctioned for:
worker training, adaptation, wildlife &
natural resources (3.4% rising to 8.6%
in 2050)
ACES



Unlimited sale, exchange, transfer
Unlimited banking (EPA can override)
Borrowing for 1 year (no interest), up to 5 years
8% interest.
– Up to 15% of facility obligation 2-6 years

Non compliance
– Twice fair market value for missing allowances

Strategic Reserve Auction – limits price
– 1% 2012-2019, 2% 2020-2029, 3% 2030-2050
– Minimum price established by EPA
ACES

Performance standards for non covered
industrial sources
– EPA cannot apply HAPs rules based on climate

Domestic Competitiveness
– Rebates to industries adversely impacted
– EPA publish list of industries by 2012
– Constant thru 2025, reduce annually thereafter
by 10%
 Eliminated
if 85% of world output in compatible
climate regime
 If ineffective, President can mandate importers to
purchase allowances from separate fund
ACES-HFCs

HFC Separate Title – same Clean Air Act
Section as HCFCs (Group I) but separate
(Group II)
– Includes manufactured HFCs, excludes
byproducts

2012 @ 90% of baseline GWP
– 2.5%/yr decline first 6 years (2018), 4%/yr
thereafter
– 15% of baseline in 2033

370 MM TCO2e maximum EPA determined baseline
– 280 MM TCO2e minimum baseline
ACES-HFCs
400
Projected HFC Demand
350
300
MM TCO2 Equiv
250
200
150
100
50
0
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032
Producer Non Auction Rights
Rights needed
Producer Auction Rights
to produce/import any HFC Similar to HCFC
Rights not free – auction/fee
Secondary Pool
Starting basis:
Projected HFC Demand
GWP 2004-2006, 60% HCFCs+100% HFCs
Presumes EPA allocates at maximum level allowed in 2012
Senate consideration unknown/on-going
EPA

EPA – Released 564 page ANPR Climate
Change
– Applicability of Clean Air Act to Climate Chg
– Contains about 100 pages Agency
disclaimers (Bush Administration)
– Discusses specific authority to use Clean Air
Act to regulate HFCs
– Believe EPA working on nPRM already
EPA started voluntary HFC reporting in
2009
 Published “endangerment” finding

Regional GHG Initiative

Cap-and-trade covers
electric power sector
–


Offsets allowed up to 3.3% of
each unit’s emissions
9 states in New England and
Mid-Atlantic have joined
Cap and Timing:
–
–
Phase I (2009-2015): Stabilize
emissions to about 2000-2004
levels
Phase II (2015-2020): Reduce
emissions 10% from Phase 1;
about 1990 levels
Climate Change - Regional

Western Climate Initiative announced 4/08
– Ariz, BC, Ca, Manitoba, Mont, NM,
Ont.,Oreg.,Quebec,Utah,Wash.

6 Mexican States “observing”
– Links to RGGI
– 15% below 2005 in 2020


Straight line reductions from 2015 actual
Banking allowed – no borrowing
– All gases
– By 2015, cover 90% of all emissions
– 25,000 MT CO2e/year allowance threshold; 10,000
MT CO2e /year reporting threshold in 2011
– Minimum 10% auction 2012, 25% in 2020
Assembly Bill 32: The California Global
Warming Solutions Act of 2006
•September 2006:
“The Time for
Action is Now!”
•Sets in statute
2020 emission limit
at 1990 level
•2020 not end goal
•Creates Climate
Action Team
California Climate Action–AB 32

Reduce GHG emissions to 1990 levels
by 12/31/20
– Interim reductions 7/1/12, 7/1/16
Multi-sector, market-based program
 Establishes multi-Agency Climate Action
Board

– CAB establishes GHG Emissions Reduction
Plan
 Includes
economics and benefits
 Multi-sector, market-based compliance
California
 2/28/09
GWP
– introduced ban on high
– Commercial Refrigeration & AC
– GWP>150, commencing in 2020
– Converted to a study in April
Personal Responses to
Climate Change
Driving
Drive 10% less –walk, carpool, public
transit, in-line skate, telework
 Don’t use car A/C, or use sparingly
 Give up 2nd vehicle
 Don’t idle – stop more than 10 seconds
(except in traffic) turn off engine
 Drive at posted speed limit 62 mph to
75 mph + 20% more fuel
 Cruise Control

Driving
 Block
32°F
heater when temp below
– Winter fuel economy  10%
 Vehicle
maintenance
 Tire inflation – 70% of vehicles
have one tire over/under inflated
 Hybrid-electric vehicles
 Remove roof racks when not in use
Home









Install energy-efficient furnace
Caulking/weather stripping – could be 20% of
heat/ac loses
Energy Star Label – windows/sliding doors
Install storm windows – could be 25% of
heat/ac loses
Replace exterior doors
Use window blinds
Furnace maintenance every 2 years
– 1o = 5% energy savings – programmable
thermostat
Seal/insulate warm air ducts
Upgrade insulation
Home









Lower thermostat - 2°F=2%  heat bill
Shut off pilot lights
Ceiling Fans - 8¢ - $1.50/month (a/c $6-$40)
Remove window a/c in winter
Florescent light bulbs – light dimmers,
occupancy sensors
Window curtains: open in winter, closed in
summer
Clean/replace a/c-heating filters
Turn off all sources of heat in summer: lights,
appliances, electrical equipment
Baking/washing/drying/ironing early morning
or evening
Appliances
Clean refrigerator coils regularly
 Energy Star
 Unplug second refrigerator or freezer
 Dishwasher no-heat/air dry cycle, don’t
hand wash
 Maintain refrigerator @ 35°F, freezer @
0°F
 Clothes rinse in cold, wash in warm
water
 Don’t overdry, hang clothes to dry

– Purchase dryer with moisture sensor

Hot water tank pre 2004, insulate
Appliances








Purchase front load washer – 40% less water
per load
Efficient light bulbs-LED or fluorescent
Install outdoor automatic timers
Computer system with energy-saver option
– Computer running full time: $70-$100
energy per year
– Use “sleep” or “hibernate” mode
– Smart Strip Power Strip
Use as little paper as possible
Buy right size monitor
Turn off computer at night – 1/3rd left on
40% of appliance energy used when off
Lawn
 Capture/reuse
rainwater
 Leave grass clippings on lawn
 Water early in morning
 Avoid chemical use
 Limit use of gas powered mowers,
tools
 Pool efficiency
 Plant trees
Home Water
Low-flow showerheads
 High-efficiency water heaters
 Quick showers
 Avoid running the tap
 Insulate water pipes – (not w/i 6” of
exhaust pipe)
 Turn off cottage water heater
 Turn water off when shaving/brushing
teeth
