How did 2 billion people gain
access to WASH over the past
25 years?
Dominick de Waal, Senior Economist, WSP, Water Global Practice
UNC Water and Health Conference
www.wsp.org | www.worldbank.org/water | www.blogs.worldbank.org/water |
@WorldBankWater
Building on a paper written here in UNC
Universal access to drinking water: the role of aid
•
Looks at the relationship between aid and drinking
water access gains over the period 2000 to 2010
•
Data sources used
– OECD CRS database
– JMP database
– Econometric analysis
Robert Bain, Rolf Luyendijk and Jamie Bartram
1
Paper concluded …
“Longitudinal analysis shows no detectable effect of
volume of aid on progress.”
2
Outline
1.
Why is it difficult to make links between sector aid and sector
progress?
2.
What tools and instruments do we have to influence
progress through aid?
3.
How could we use these tools and instruments better?
3
75% of MDG progress in just 18 countries
1150
Millions of people who gained access
Water
950
50% driven by China and India
750
25% by next 16 countries
550
3.3m less people have access in
Somalia today than in 1990
350
3630 people gained access in Tuvalu
150
-50
4
Sanitation
Wide range of country outcomes for aid spent
200
US$ of aid per person that gained access
$2804
150
100
50
$1
0
5
$9
Back to the Future:
Using MDG costing models retrospectively
6
In: Hutton G, Haller L (2004)
Source: Global Water Supply and Sanitation Report
To estimate what was spent (from all financial flows) …
… given actual progress made by a country over the MDG period
How much could aid volumes have contributed to
progress over MDG period?
Aid vs estimated cost of access gains
100%
80%
Lots of
variation!
60%
40%
20%
0%
7
Estimated cost of gains
Aid
The paper’s ‘get out’ clause …
“Importantly, we were unable to evaluate ‘catalytic’ aid.”
Three catalytic influence questions …
8
Domestic CAPEX flows growing in MICs and LICs
Annual average aid flows vs recent domestic CAPEX flows
100%
9
23
80%
222
75
267
1,859*
60%
1,363
400
878
5,424
1,919
11,000
40%
20%
0%
Annual Domestic CAPEX
(US$ m)
Avg annual aid flows
(US$ m)
* Rural only
Catalytic influence question 1
How to influence growing domestic WASH sector
CAPEX?
10
Ethiopia
Most WASH funding not in the hands of WASH sector
ETB Millions
400
350
Annual budget
300
Annual expenditure
250
200
150
100
50
65% of WASH from
multi-sector
expenditure
Swap discussion covers
only 35% of sector
expenditure
0
Regional block
grants
On treasury
Food Security
Program
Productive
Safety –Nets
Program
On budget multi-sector
AfDB
World Bank
(EWSSP)
On budget WSS
UNICEF
Finland (CDF)
NGOs
Off budget
Catalytic influence question 2
How to squeeze more and better WASH out of the
growing streams of non-sector domestic finance?
13
Cost recovery
Port Harcourt, Nigeria
Planning
 Example Kambia:
City of 2 million people
Water utility serves 1% of HH
Private solutions for other 99%
No regulation of boreholes
No sewerage just one (small) treatment plant
 We are working with districts to ensure they use the data
Costdrilling
recovery
Hand
- jetting
Port Harcourt,
Nigeria
Planning
 Example Kambia:
City of 2 million people
Water utility serves 1% of HH
Private solutions for other 99%
No sewerage just one (small) treatment plant
Approximately 30,000 hand-drilled wells have
 We are working with districts
been constructed throughout Nigeria
Dotun Adekile
No regulation of boreholes
to ensure they use the data
Nigerian HHs have shifted away from utility supply
100
Surface water
80
Millions of people
Other unimproved
$670m of
aid pointed
at this …
60
Other improved
source
40
20
0
16
68
12
9
1990
3
Urban
2015
Piped onto
premises
… while
Nigerian
households
have
invested in
this
There are 200 enterprises,
carrying out manual drilling in
Lagos alone
(Danert et al, 2014)
Catalytic influence question 3
How to capitalize, improve and regulate household
investment in alternative service delivery models?
17
Aid modalities – catalytic or not?
Projects – a means of keeping aid $ isolated from
domestic $ to deliver specific outputs
Pooled funding – a means of reducing reporting
burden while isolating aid $ for specific outputs
Sector/General Budget Support – mixing aid $ with
domestic $ to jointly deliver country outputs
Technical Assistance – influencing the 3Es of either
or both aid $ and domestic $
18
Project modality dominant across countries
100%
Proportion of aid by modality
80%
60%
40%
20%
0%
19
Non State Actors
TA
Sector Budget Support
Pooled funding
Project funding
Hon, Sufian Ahmed,
Ethiopian Minister of Finance
“… it is not an easy task to bring donors to a consolidated
pool funding and a joint program arrangement, as some
development partners still prefer to operate in projects
using their own rules and procedures … for budgeting,
planning, implementation and reporting.
This situation is highly inefficient, and most importantly,
weakens much of the limited capacity available.”
Credit: Jemimia Sy
Three ways aid needs to be more catalytic
1.
To influence growing domestic WASH sector CAPEX
2.
To squeeze more and better WASH out of the growing
streams of non-sector domestic finance such as safety nets
and block grants
3.
To capitalize, improve and regulate household investment in
alternative service delivery models
22
Projects can be
catalytic …
• In difficult environments
like Somalia
• If embedded in
government institutions
• Re-establish the state
• Investigate alternative
designs
• Understand winners and
losers in development
1. Influencing growing domestic
WASH sector CAPEX
THE STATE
CITIZENS/CLIENTS
Coalitions | Inclusion
DONORS
SECTOR BUDGET
SUPPORT
TECHNICAL
ASSISTANCE
“Skin, heart
and soul in
the game”
Client Power
SERVICES
PROVIDERS
Management
How to get procurement to work
in 1000 different districts?
Building better aid-domestic interfaces through
adopting SWA “Collaborative Behaviors”
26
2. Integrating WASH into poverty reduction programs
Community Driven
Development Programs
Social Protection
Programs
Health and Nutrition
Services
WB supports 400 CDD
projects in 94 countries
valued at US$ 30 billion
Around 70 countries have
Conditional Cash Transfer
programs targeting the
poorest and vulnerable.
Integrating WASH into health
extension programs with
focus on maternal and child
healthcare.
India (5)
Indonesia (1)
Philippines (3)
Laos (1)
Vietnam (2)
Cambodia (1)
Sitaramachandra
Machiraju
3. Tapping the market
Support to private sector suppliers to overcoming obstacles to
investment in a regulated environment …
28
… plus microfinance to households
to empower them to choose
Matching aid modalities to context:
Horses for courses
Project finance + TA: to pull public sector capacity into place
and to stabilize specific critical institutions
Sector Budget Support + TA: to push service delivery in
countries where public expenditure is on a par with aid flows
General Budget Support + TA: to squeeze more WASH out of
safety nets and other non-sector funding
Microfinance + TA: To nudge private sector service delivery
towards more sustainable solutions and give HH more control of
the service delivery models they want
29
That just leaves Tuvalu …
30
www.wsp.org | www.worldbank.org/water | www.blogs.worldbank.org/water |
@WorldBankWater