Electric vehicles: early stage adoption
processes
Energy Transitions, 16 May 2012
TU Delft • Bert van Wee • Kees Maat • Will Sierzchula
VU • Piet Rietveld • Jos van Ommeren •
Alexandros Dimitropoulos
RUG • Linda Steg • Ernst Noppers •
Jan Willem Bolderdijk
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This project
Electric vehicles
§
§
need for understanding of the innovation and diffusion
processes
focus on early stages & early adopters
Innovation transitions from
1.
2.
3.
an economic perspective (VU Amsterdam)
a behavioural-psychological perspective (RU Groningen)
an innovation’s perspective (TU Delft)
project 1+2: consumers
§.
project 3: other stakeholders
§.
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Main drivers of ETs: economics
•
Main economic barriers to consumer adoption of EVs:
Ø
Direct costs
1.
2.
Ø
high acquisition costs: purchase price or lease costs
possible battery replacement costs (irrelevant for lease
cars)
Indirect costs
1.
2.
time costs
cognitive burden costs  higher frequency + length
refuelling actions  short driving range, long charging
time, low coverage charging facilities
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Consumer valuation of driving range
Meta-analysis 33 studies
 trade-off driving range and purchase costs
Driving range
•
•
•
consumers are willing to pay about €50 for an extra km
this decreases non-linearly with increasing driving range
e.g. other things equal: 160-km-range cars have to be priced
about 48-61% less than their conventional counterparts to
become competitive
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Consumer preferences for EVs and PHEVs
•
•
2 stated preference (SP) in mid-2012  Dutch drivers’
preferences for EVs, hybrids and plug-in hybrids
1 SP study  drivers of private cars and 1 for drivers of
lease cars
Ø
Ø
contribution of battery-swapping stations and battery-leasing
structures
influence current composition and use of household’s vehicle
fleet influence drivers’ preferences for EVs, hybrids and plug-in
hybrids?
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Main drivers of ETs: psychological
Attribute types of cars:
•
Instrumental (e.g. price, range, safety)
•
Environmental (e.g. CO2 emission)
•
Symbolic (e.g. status, car fits with who I am)
•
Affect (e.g. excitement, pleasure)
What do people claim?
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What predicts intention to buy an RV?
Beliefs about
EV
Importance of symbolic motives
underrated: people might not fully
understand their own motivations
Instrumental
Environmental
n.s
.
.28
Interest in
EV
.29
Symbolic
Intention
n.s
.
Affective
R2 = .25 p < .
001
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Main drivers of ETs: innovation
Role of stakeholders (other than consumers)
1.
2.
3.
automotive industries – 3 analyses (published/submitted)
energy producers (fuel, electricity) – not investigated yet
government-related – not investigated yet
Three analyses on automotive industries:
•.
•.
•.
start-ups versus incumbants: market analysis
start-ups versus incumbants: emerging technologies
network analysis between 24 EV manufacturers
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Start-ups versus incumbants
Target different consumer markets:
•
•
start-ups: niche markets (sports cars, low speed vehicles)
incumbents: in line with current consumer demand
Data collection: 450 EV
prototypes and
production models (19912011)
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Start-ups versus incumbants
Incumbants:
•
uncertainty about powertrain designs
•
most incorporate internal combustion engine in some fashion:
•
•
flex fuel
hybrid electric
Start-ups:
•
more often radical
desings
(hydrogen, EVs)
Data collection: 884
alternative fuelled
vehicles (1991-2011)
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Strengthening the main drivers
•
Economics
•
•
Technological improvements in battery technology allowing
longer ranges and lower battery costs would be valued
highly by consumers, significantly encouraging the adoption
of EVs.
Psychological
•
•
emphasize the symbolic and environmental advantages
do not stress and downplay the instrumental
disadvantages
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Strengthening the main drivers
•
Innovation
•
battery development continues independent from EV success  no
need for encouraging battery development
•
start-ups mainly in niche markets  they may need policy
protection
•
flex-fuel and hybrid-electric vehicles both have functioning markets
 other types of alternative fuel vehicles require policy support to
establish broader commercialization in the short-term
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Emerging questions in research
Electric mobility is fast developing field of research  risk of
lagging behind:
•
•
fast developing technologies (e.g. batteries)
•
other research (so many studies conducted)
Economics
•
•
Little understanding of how driver’s daily travel behaviour
influence their willingness to adopt an EV. The collection of
data on households’ daily trips is essential.
Holistic approach for the assessment of EV indirect costs is
needed. It is the combined effect of short driving range, long
recharging time and shortage of infrastructure that costs time,
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effort and inconvenience to EV adopters.
Emerging questions in research (2)
Second versus first car? Gradual change?
•
Concepts with availability of car for longer distances /
vacation?
•
Charging infrastucture: government versus private parties
•
Competition between alternatives: relevance for policy?
•
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