Housing in the European
Semester
Aurora Mordonu
DG Economic and Financial Affairs
European Commission
Housing Europe, Brussels, 17 November 2015
Housing markets and imbalances
Housing Markets
Consumption
Banks
External imbalances
Investment
Housing in the MIP
 Broad implications of a housing markets adjustment

Impact on consumption and investment

Banking sector fragilities and restricted credit to the economy

Increased economic and social distress
 Challenge: re-shape housing markets' incentive structure to
avoid reappearance of imbalances
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Identified imbalances vary in scope
Identified main elements of imbalances
External position
HR, (DE), HU, PT, RO, ES
External performance (competitiveness)
BE, FR, FI, IT, RO
Household indebtedness
IE, NL, ES, SE, UK
Housing and mortgage markets
NL, SE, UK
Corporate indebtedness
BG, FR, HR, IE, PT, SI, ES
Public debt risks
HR, FR, HU, IE, IT, PT, ES
Financial sector
BG, HU, IE, SI
Adjustment quality (labour)
BG, HR, IE, ES
.
Overview of progress with the implementation of 2014 CSRs by Member State*
The degree of progress on housing and indebtedness is very heterogeneous, with an average of 27% and
55% respectively.
• Some examples of substantial progress or full implementation include:
•
•
•
UK: in mitigating risks related to high mortgage indebtedness. through macro-prudential regulation; and
in monitoring the Help to Buy 2 scheme, the Financial Policy Committee of the Bank of England
published its first review of the Help to Buy policy in October 2014;
IE: the Central Bank of Ireland continues to monitor banks' performance against the mortgage arrears
restructuring targets;
SI: Substantial progress has been made regarding the restructuring of the most urgent restructuring
cases.
* Note: For each Member State: a non-weighted average is used in case the country-specific recommendation focuses on several building blocks.
Overview of Country-specific recommendations 2015
Note: Country-specific recommendations for 2015-2016 proposed by the Commission on 13 May 2015. Cyprus and Greece should implement commitments
under EU/IMF financial assistance programmes. More information at : http://ec.europa.eu/europe2020/index_en.htm
Specific focus of housing-related 2015 CSRs
Elements of housing-related CSRs
Housing-related taxation issues
NL, SE
Rental markets
NL, SE
Construction
SE, DK
Land use and construction permits
SE, UK, SK

The number of housing CSRs has been roughly stable over
the past several years.

What has changed is:

The composition of countries (less "vulnerable" countries)

The specific focus (more attention on housing supply issues).
Conclusions
• In its 4-5 years of implementation the MIP has been covering housing
markets.
• Some Member States' housing markets continue to be a source of future
vulnerabilities and risks.
• Latest analytical findings on housing are to be expected in Spring 2016.
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Thank you!