ALBERTA
ENERGY
O I L S AN D S
2 0 0 4 - 2 0 1 4
P R O D U C T I O N
P R O F I L E :
Energy Technical Services
Resource Development Policy Division
January 31, 2016
2004 - 2014
Christopher Holly
Martin Mader
Shoshi Soni
Jesse Toor
ISBN: 978-1-4601-2723-0 (PDF)
This paper was prepared by the Energy Technical Services Branch, Alberta Energy, to illustrate
technology developments in the Alberta oil and gas industry. The Government of Alberta shall have
no liability whatsoever to third parties for any defect, deficiency, error or omission in the contents,
analyses and evaluations presented in this paper.
Any questions about this paper should be directed to
Branch Head
Energy Technical Services
Alberta Energy
9945 – 108 Street
Edmonton, Alberta Canada
T5K 2G6
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Table of Contents
Introduction ............................................................................................................................................ 4
Methodology .......................................................................................................................................... 5
Oil Sands Areas ..................................................................................................................................... 6
Production Technologies ....................................................................................................................... 7
Primary/Enhanced Oil Recovery ............................................................................................................................7
Cyclic Steam Stimulation........................................................................................................................................7
Steam Assisted Gravity Drainage ...........................................................................................................................7
Surface Mining ........................................................................................................................................................7
Diagram of different production technologies:......................................................................................................8
Data & Analysis...................................................................................................................................... 9
Annual Oil Sands Production .................................................................................................................................9
Annual Oil Sands Production by Technology .................................................................................................... 10
Annual Oil Sands Production by Area ................................................................................................................ 12
Annual Oil Sands Areas Production by Technology ......................................................................................... 14
Annual Oil Sands Production - SAGD ............................................................................................................... 17
Annual Oil Sands Production - CSS ................................................................................................................... 19
Appendix I ............................................................................................................................................ 21
2004 – 2014 Oil Sands Project Production Volumes ......................................................................................... 21
Appendix II ........................................................................................................................................... 22
Calculations........................................................................................................................................................... 22
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Introduction
Canada is endowed with significant crude oil resources, in the order of two trillion barrels of oil in
place. Although these oil deposits are some of the most challenging in the world to develop,
innovative research and production technologies have enabled them to move from resources to
proven reserves. Canada is a net exporter of oil, and is consistently the top supplier of oil imports to
the United States. As of 2014, Canada is responsible for 19 percent of oil exports to the United
States1, of which 77 percent is from Alberta’s Oil Sands2.
The purpose of this report is to provide a detailed overview of oil production volumes from the oil
sands region based on production information submitted to the Ministry of Energy3. Specifically, this
report will provide an analysis of production volumes based on (1) region, and (2) production
technology as defined by the Alberta Energy. The report also shows steam-to-oil ratios trends for
thermal in-situ projects from 2004 - 2015.
1
http://www.neb.gc.ca/clf-nsi/rnrgynfmtn/sttstc/crdlndptrlmprdct/crdlndptrlmprdct-eng.html, Retrieved October 9, 2015
http://www.neb.gc.ca/nrg/sttstc/crdlndptrlmprdct/index-eng.html, Retrieved September 22, 2014
3
The ministry consists of the Department of Energy, the Alberta Energy Regulator (AER), the Alberta Utilities
Commission (AUC), the Alberta Petroleum Marketing Commission (APMC) and the Post-Closure Stewardship
Fund. The AER regulates the safe, efficient, orderly and environmentally responsible development of Alberta’s
energy resources. This includes allocating and conserving water resources, protecting the environment and
managing public lands, which benefit Alberta’s economy and environment. The AUC regulates the utilities sector,
natural gas and electricity markets to protect the social, economic and environmental interests of Alberta where
competitive market forces do not. The APMC is a provincial agency that markets the Crown’s crude oil royalty
barrels. The APMC supports projects that economically benefit the province through improving market access or
maximizing the value of Alberta’s non-renewable resources. The Post-Closure Stewardship Fund, financed by
carbon-capture and storage operators in Alberta, is a liability fund that has been established to ensure that carboncapture and storage sites are properly maintained in the long-term after carbon-capture operations cease. Alberta
Energy Business Plan 2015-18, October 15, 2015
2
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Methodology
The main objectives of the Oil Sands Production Profile (OSPP) are to identify the growth trend in
different production technologies over the past 10 years, how these technologies have been applied
to different Oil Sands Areas and energy efficiency of thermal projects. The total production volumes
given in this profile are reflective of the Alberta Energy Regulator (AER) data, which includes
experimental commercial and freehold Oil Sands projects. Growth trends were measured and
assessed for accuracy (R2 ≥ 0.99 for total Oil Sands production)4.
Production data is categorized by operators, area (Athabasca North, Wabiskaw, Conklin, Peace
River and Cold Lake), and production technology (Primary/Enhanced Oil Recovery, Cyclic Steam
Simulation, Steam Assisted Gravity Drainage, and Surface Mining).
4
See Appendix II – Growth trends
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Oil Sands Areas
In Alberta, there are three main Oil Sands Areas. These areas are as follows:
1. Athabasca
2. Cold Lake
3. Peace River
To identify with greater clarity where growth is occurring, the Athabasca Oil Sands Area (AOSA) is
divided into three sub-areas or segments:
1. Athabasca (North) – The AOSA, North of Township 86 (known hereafter as “Athabasca
North Area”)
2. Athabasca (Wabiskaw) – The AOSA, South of Township 86, from Range 16 West (known
hereafter as “Wabiskaw Area”).
3. Athabasca (Conklin) – The AOSA, from Township 86 South, East of Range 16 (known
hereafter as “Conklin Area”).
The map in Figure 1-i shows the locations of these areas. The reservoir characteristics vary
significantly among these areas, as shown in Figure 1-ii.
Figure 1
i.
5
Alberta
Areas5
Oil Sands
Map modified from http://www.energy.alberta.ca/LandAccess/pdfs/OSAagreeStats.pdf
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Production Technologies
There are four generalized extraction methods outlined as the main production technologies
currently used in the Oil Sands Areas: Primary/Enhanced Recovery, Cyclic Steam Stimulation,
Steam Assisted Gravity Drainage, and Surface Mining. The resource quality determines the
recovery technology to be used as it is critical to match the recovery process to the unique
characteristics of a reservoir such as location, geology, etc.
Primary/Enhanced Oil Recovery
Primary recovery from a reservoir is typically the first method of producing oil from a given reservoir.
It uses energy which is already in the reservoir, such as gravity, and water or gas pressure (also
known as waterdrive or gasdrive), to displace oil and drive it to surface facilities.
Enhanced Oil Recovery (EOR) is typically any form of technology for producing oil after primary
production is no longer economically viable. Some examples of EOR include: water-flooding, gas
injection, and polymer/chemical flooding. In some cases, these EOR production technologies are
applied at the start of production, rather than being used as the secondary or tertiary recovery
mechanism, in order to increase the ultimate recovery of oil from the reservoir.
Cyclic Steam Stimulation
Cyclic Steam Stimulation (CSS), or “huff and puff” as it is sometimes called, is a thermal production
technology in which one well is used to both inject steam and produce oil. Steam is injected at
pressures high enough that the hydraulic fractures are induced in the reservoir, allowing steam to
access and heat new areas of the reservoir. After weeks or even months, the injection cycle is
completed; a few days are allowed for the steam to condense and then the production of oil and
water begins. Production initially occurs due to increased reservoir pressures, but later, cycles
require artificial lift technologies to produce the remaining oil during the production cycle. This cycle
is then repeated after the production rates become too small (as determined by the producer).
CSS is a viable option for deeper reservoirs that have a thick, capping shale to manage the high
steam injection pressure. The high injection pressure and multiple recovery mechanisms enable
CSS to work effectively with a broader range of reservoirs, especially with heterogeneous
characteristics.
Steam Assisted Gravity Drainage
Steam Assisted Gravity Drainage (SAGD) is a thermal production technology which utilizes two
parallel horizontal wells, known as a well pair, one to inject steam, and the other to produce water
and oil. Initially, steam is circulated in both wells to establish communication between the wells. The
top horizontal well then continuously injects steam to heat the reservoir, creating a steam chamber.
The oil from the chamber drains to the production well below to allow for production initially through
pressure drive, and then by artificial lift or gas lift. The steam injection and oil production happen
continuously and simultaneously once production starts. This technology has a high ultimate
recovery of oil from the reservoir relative to other in situ production technologies.
Surface Mining
Truck and shovel technology is used to move sand saturated with bitumen from the mining area to
an extraction facility. Surface mining is used to recover oil sands deposits less than 75 meters below
the surface, while in-situ technologies are used to recover deeper deposits. The bitumen is then
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treated to remove the sand, mineral fines and other impurities in processes which vary among
industry competitors. Once the extraction process is completed, it is ready for refining or upgrading,
depending on the company’s objective and the treatment process used.
Diagram of different production technologies:
Source: Government of Alberta
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Data & Analysis
Annual Oil Sands Production
Crude Oil production from Oil Sands was calculated on an annual basis for 2004-2014 production
years6 and is presented in Figure 2.
Figure 2
i) Annual Crude Oil Production from Oil Sands
Annual Crude Oil Production from Oil Sands 2004 - 2014
2,500,000
Production (bpd)
2,000,000
1,500,000
1,000,000
500,000
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
Year
ii) Annual Crude Oil Production from Oil Sands
Year
bpd
2004
1,088,799
2005
1,063,639
Annual Crude Oil Production from Oil Sands 2004 - 2014
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
1,254,226 1,320,271 1,304,546 1,488,843 1,612,127 1,748,296
2012
1,956,031
2013
2,142,264
2014
2,323,535
Figure 2 shows growth in total crude production for all of the oil sands areas. The average annual
growth was determined to be 121,526 bpd with a 7.8 percent Compounded Annual Growth Rate
(CAGR)7.
6
7
See Methodology and Appendix I
See Appendix II for sample calculation
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Annual Oil Sands Production by Technology
To emphasize the growth of separate technologies over the past decade, annual production was
further analyzed based on the four generalized commercial production technologies: 1)
Primary/EOR, 2) CSS, 3) SAGD, and 4) Surface Mining8. Figure 3-i and 3-ii shows production by
the various technologies.
Figure 3
i)
Annual Crude Oil Production from Oil Sands by Technology
1,200,000
CSS
Surface Mining
1,000,000
Production (bpd)
Primary/EOR
SAGD
800,000
600,000
400,000
200,000
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
Year
ii)
Annual Crude Oil Production (bpd) from Oil Sands by Technology
Technology
CSS
Surface Mining
Primary/EOR
SAGD
Total
8
2004
175,535
704,777
115,537
72,627
1,068,476
2005
198,860
612,751
117,970
86,440
1,016,021
2006
224,277
760,839
128,878
108,398
1,222,393
2007
225,218
770,835
153,296
128,212
1,277,561
2008
219,029
721,491
169,131
180,248
1,289,900
2009
207,947
825,842
174,422
244,507
1,452,718
2010
237,892
856,876
173,145
322,644
1,590,557
2011
264,064
890,940
169,660
378,853
1,703,517
2012
264,705
929,662
178,442
518,542
1,891,351
2013
256,531
978,208
210,810
626,403
2,071,952
2014
251,666
1,038,479
226,964
686,324
2,203,433
As described in Methodology and Appendix I
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iii)
Crude Oil Growth Rates from Oil Sands by Technology
Technology
Average Growth (bbl/year)
Compounded Annual Growth (CAGR)
CSS
7,613
3.7%
Surface Mining
33,370
4.0%
Primary/EOR
11,143
7.0%
SAGD
61,370
25.2%
Total
113,496
7.5%
Separating production allowed for calculation of the individual CAGR of the technologies, and
showed the corresponding trends. Growth rates can be seen in Figure 3-iii. CAGR for CSS (3.7%),
Mining (4%) and Primary (7%) exhibited growth trends9, similar to total annual production (7.5%) as
shown in Figure 2-i and 2-ii, while SAGD production exhibited more growth with a significantly
greater CAGR (25.2%) than all other production technologies.
9
Appendix II-i
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Annual Oil Sands Production by Area
Production trends were also examined within the distinct Oil Sands Areas10. Annual crude
production was determined for: 1) Athabasca North, 2) Cold Lake, 3) Conklin, 4) Peace River, and
5) Wabiskaw areas11. Figure 4-i and 4-ii shows the annual production volumes for the various
regions.
Figure 4
i)
Annual Crude Oil Production from Oil Sands by Area
1,300,000
1,200,000
Production (bpd)
1,100,000
1,000,000
Athabasca North
900,000
Cold Lake
800,000
Conklin
700,000
Peace River
600,000
Wabiskaw
500,000
400,000
300,000
200,000
100,000
0
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Year
ii)
Annual Crude Oil Production (bpd) from Oil Sands by Area
Annual Crude Oil Production from Oil Sands by Area
Area
2004
2005
2006
2007
Athabasca
733,869 654,428 816,442 829,825
North
Cold Lake
237,534 246,594 276,332 285,400
Conklin
42,741
44,129
52,304
62,897
Peace River 15,167
21,864
20,077
36,087
Wabiskaw
39,165
49,006
57,238
63,351
Total
1,068,476 1,016,021 1,222,393 1,277,560
10
11
2008
2009
2010
787,655
904,831
941,981
2011
2012
2013
2014
980,539 1,060,921 1,151,935 1,240,106
293,347 286,669 323,505 364,004 349,944 354,521 350,473
105,840 155,543 226,811 273,600 351,535 427,104 459,162
38,633
41,133
37,037
41,807
41,634
47,659
52,608
64,425
64,542
61,223
61,567
75,294
89,837 101,084
1,289,900 1,452,718 1,590,557 1,721,517 1,879,328 2,071,056 2,203,433
See Oil Sands Areas
As described in Methodology and Appendix I
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iii)
Annual Crude Oil Growth Rates from Oil Sands by Area
Annual Crude Oil Growth Rates from Oil Sands by Area
Area
Athabasca North
Cold Lake
Conklin
Peace River
Wabiskaw
Total
Average Annual Growth
Rate Growth (bpd/year)
50,624
11,294
41,642
3,744
6,192
113,496
Compounded Annual
Growth Rate (CAGR)
5.4%
4.0%
26.8%
13.2%
9.9%
7.5%
CAGRs were calculated for Athabasca North (5.4%), Cold Lake (4%), and Wabiskaw (9.9%) areas
(Figure 4-iii). All areas exhibited CAGRs less than 10%, with the exception of the Peace River
(13.2%) area, and the Conklin area which exhibited larger growth (26.8%)12.
12
Appendix II-iii and II-iv
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Annual Oil Sands Areas Production by Technology
Regional production volumes were further sub-divided on the basis of technology to determine
production trends in each area. Results are shown in Figure 5-i to 5-vi.
Figure 5
Annual Crude Oil Production from Oil Sands by Area – Athabasca North
i)
1,200,000
Production (bpd)
1,000,000
800,000
Surface Mining
SAGD
600,000
400,000
200,000
0
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Year
Annual Crude Oil Production from Oil Sands by Area – Cold Lake
ii)
300,000
Production (bpd)
250,000
200,000
CSS
Primary/EOR
150,000
SAGD
100,000
50,000
0
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Year
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Annual Crude Oil Production from Oil Sands by Area – Conklin
iii)
500,000
450,000
Production (bpd)
400,000
350,000
300,000
250,000
SAGD
200,000
150,000
100,000
50,000
0
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Year
Annual Crude Oil Production from Oil Sands Area by Area – Peace River
iv)
50,000
Production (bpd)
45,000
40,000
35,000
30,000
CSS
25,000
Primary/EOR
20,000
SAGD
15,000
10,000
5,000
0
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Year
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Annual Crude Oil Production from Oil Sands Area by Region – Wabiskaw
v)
Production (bpd)
120,000
100,000
80,000
60,000
Primary/EOR
SAGD
40,000
20,000
0
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Year
vi)
Annual Crude Oil Production (bpd) and Growth Rates from Oil Sands Regions by
Technology
2004
Surface Mining 704,777
Athabasca
2009
2010
2005
2006
2007
2008
2011
2012
612,751
760,839
770,835
721,491
825,842
856,876
890,940
929,662
978,208 1,038,479
2013
2014
Growth (bbl/year)
CAGR
33,370
4.0%
17,254
21.4%
SAGD
29,092
41,677
55,585
58,990
66,164
78,989
85,105
89,597
131,255
173,725
201,627
CSS
Primary/EOR
SAGD
2004
167,455
69,285
794
2005
189,912
56,048
634
2006
217,747
58,093
492
2007
216,196
62,879
6,325
2008
210,217
74,885
8,245
Cold Lake
2009
2010
202,468 233,681
74,226
79,097
9,975
10,728
2011
261,552
69,093
15,359
2012
261,787
65,520
22,637
2013
253,536
83,344
17,641
2014
Growth (bbl/year)
CAGR
247,656
8,020
4.0%
83,225
1,394
1.9%
19,592
1,880
37.8%
SAGD
2004
42,741
2005
44,129
2006
52,304
2007
62,897
2008
105,840
Conklin
2009
2010
155,543 226,811
2011
273,600
2012
350,047
2013
425,787
2014
Growth (bbl/year)
CAGR
459,162 41,642
26.8%
2004
2005
2006
CSS
8,080
8,948
6,530
Primary/EOR
7,087
12,916
13,548
SAGD
*Not enough data to determine CAGR
2007
9,021
27,066
-
2008
8,812
29,821
-
Peace River
2009
2010
5,479
4,212
35,654
32,825
-
2011
2,512
30,674
9
2012
2,918
33,698
5,019
2013
2,995
36,310
1,003
2014
Growth (bbl/year)
CAGR
4,010
-407
-6.8%
44,313
3,723
20.1%
4,285
1,425
*
2004
2005
2006
Primary/EOR
39,165
49,006
57,238
SAGD
*Not enough data to determine CAGR
2007
63,351
-
2008
64,425
-
Wabiskaw
2009
2010
64,542
61,223
-
2011
61,279
288
2012
74,497
797
2013
89,837
897
2014
Growth (bbl/year)
CAGR
99,426
5,478
9.8%
1,658
457
*
CAGRs for technologies in all regions exhibited similar growth displayed by technologies in the
overall oil sands area (Figure 5-vi), with SAGD based production showing major growth in most
producing regions.
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Annual Oil Sands Production - SAGD
To further examine the growth trends for SAGD operations13, annual SAGD production was further
analyzed to determine the steam-oil ratio (SOR).
SOR is a measure of efficiency for thermal projects. It measures the average volume of steam
needed to produce one barrel of bitumen. SOR is based on the amount of steam injected at a
project site per barrel of oil produced. There are two ways to measure SOR:
1. Instantaneous steam-oil ratio (ISOR): measures the current or instantaneous rate of steam
required to produce one barrel of bitumen.
2. Cumulative steam-oil ratio (CSOR): measures the average volume of steam (over the life of the
operation) required to produce one barrel of bitumen.
The annual (calendar year – January 1st to December 31st) SOR for SAGD projects were examined
to identify ISOR and CSOR (Figure 6-ii and iii). A low SOR indicates that steam is more efficiently
utilized and, as a result, the associated costs related to fuel and water is lower.
Figure 6
i) Annual Crude Oil Production from Oil Sands - SAGD Production
800,000
700,000
Production (bpd)
600,000
500,000
400,000
300,000
200,000
SAGD
100,000
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
Year
13
Appendix II-ii
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ii) Annual Crude Oil Production from Oil Sands SAGD – Annual Weighted Average ISOR
140.0
5.0
4.5
120.0
4.0
100.0
3.5
3.0
Steam (e6m3)
80.0
2.5
Bitumen (e6m3)
60.0
2.0
Annual SOR
(m3/m3)
40.0
1.5
1.0
20.0
0.5
0.0
0.0
Annual Average Steam to Oil Ratio (m3/m3)
Annual Steam Injection and Bitumen Production
Million m3
All SAGD Wells in Alberta - Steam Quality ~100%
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Year
All SAGD Wells in Alberta - Steam Quality ~100% CSOR
140.0
4.5
4.0
120.0
3.5
100.0
3.0
Steam (e6m3)
80.0
2.5
Bitumen (e6m3)
2.0
60.0
Cumulative SOR
(m3/m3)
1.5
40.0
1.0
20.0
0.5
0.0
Cumulative Steam to Oil Ratio (m3/m3)
Annual Steam Injection and Bitumen Production
Million m3
iii) Annual Crude Oil Production from Oil Sands SAGD – CSOR
0.0
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009 2010
Year
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
Comparing the CSOR from 2004 to 2014 shows a steady decline in steam use per barrel of bitumen
produced for all SAGD projects operating in Alberta. In 2014, the average CSOR for SAGD bitumen
production has dropped to 2.7.
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Annual Oil Sands Production - CSS
As Alberta operators also use CSS as a thermal technology, annual CSS production was further
analyzed to determine the ISOR and CSOR on absolute production.
Figure 7
i) Annual Crude Oil Production from Oil Sands - CSS Production
300,000
Production (bpd)
250,000
CSS
200,000
150,000
100,000
50,000
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
Year
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
ii) Annual Crude Oil Production from Oil Sands CSS – Annual Weighted Average SOR
4.40
60.00
4.20
50.00
Annual Average Steam to Oil
Ration (m3/m3)
Annual Steam Injection and Bitumen
Production Million m3
All CSS Wells in Alberta - Steam Quality ~75% ISOR
70.00
4.00
40.00
3.80
30.00
3.60
20.00
Steam e6m3
3.40
10.00
Bitumen e6m3
0.00
3.20
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Year
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iii) Annual Crude Oil Production from Oil Sands CSS – CSOR
All CSS Wells in Alberta - Steam Quality ~75% CSOR
60.00
4.0
50.00
3.9
40.00
30.00
3.9
20.00
Steam e6m3
10.00
3.8
Bitumen e6m3
0.00
Cumulative Average Steam to Oil Ration
4.0
Annual Steam Injection and Bitumen
Production Million m3
70.00
3.8
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Year
Comparing the CSOR from 2004 to 2014 shows a decline in steam use per barrel of bitumen
produced for all CSS projects operating in Alberta. In 2015, the average CSOR for CSS bitumen
production is around 3.8.
It is important to note that CSS and SAGD SORs are not comparable on an energy basis as 75
percent quality steam for CSS contains less energy than the same water volume of steam at 100
percent quality for SAGD. Therefore, SAGD is not necessarily more energy efficient than CSS.
Steam quality is the proportion of saturated steam (vapour) in a saturated liquid/vapour mixture. A
steam quality of 0 percent indicates 100 percent liquid (condensate), while a steam quality of 100
percent indicates 100 percent of steam14.
14
Definition of steam quality - https://www.swagelok.com/~/media/Distributor%20Media/C-G/Chicago/Services/ES%20%20Steam%20Quality_BP_23.ashx, retrieved January 5, 2016.
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Appendix I
2004 – 2014 Oil Sands Project Production Volumes
Please note - Appendix I has been removed due to confidential industry information.
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Appendix II
Calculations
Growth rates were calculated using Compounded Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) calculation:
r = [(x1/x2)(1/n)] – 1
Where:
r = Compounded annual growth rate
x1 = 2014 annual production volume
x2 = 2004 Annual Production volume
n= Production Years/Periods
Trend types and R-squared values were generated using Microsoft Excel. Please see figures below
for corresponding equations.
i) Annual Crude Oil Production from Oil Sands
Annual Crude Oil Production from Oil Sands
2,500,000
Production (bpd)
2,000,000
1,500,000
y = 8928.1x2 - 4E+07x + 4E+10
R² = 0.9912
1,000,000
Series1
Poly. (Series1)
500,000
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
Year
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ii) Annual Crude Oil Production from Oil Sands by Technology
CSS
1,200,000
Surface
Mining
Production (bpd)
1,000,000
Primary/EOR
SAGD
y = 626629e0.0443x
R² = 0.8806
800,000
y = 54379e0.2418x
R² = 0.9924
Poly. (CSS)
Expon.
(Surface
Mining)
Expon.
(Primary/EOR)
600,000
Expon.
(SAGD)
400,000
y = -150.63x4 + 3593.8x3 - 28943x2 + 97238x + 101778
R² = 0.9091
200,000
y = 111062e0.0627x
R² = 0.9085
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
Alberta Energy| Oil Sands Production Profile 2004 - 2014
2009
Year
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
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iv) Annual Crude Oil Production from Oil Sands by Area
1,300,000
Athabasca
North
1,200,000
Cold Lake
1,100,000
1,000,000
Conklin
y = 3605.2x2 + 8650.9x + 700669
R² = 0.9552
Production (bpd)
900,000
Peace
River
800,000
Wabiskaw
700,000
600,000
y = -215.42x3 + 3278.1x2 + 531.13x + 237536
R² = 0.9271
500,000
400,000
Poly. (Cold
Lake)
y = -568.78x3 + 14182x2 - 52684x + 89126
R² = 0.9969
300,000
Poly.
(Athabasca
North)
Poly.
(Conklin)
200,000
y = 324.59x2 + 835.04x + 46125
R² = 0.8434
100,000
Linear
(Peace
y = 3317.3x + 15888 River)
R² = 0.8656
0
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
Poly.
(Wabiskaw)
Year
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