Increase Your Prediction Accuracy
and Achieve Maximum Student Success
Paul Gore
Xavier University
[email protected]
© 2015 Jenzabar, Inc.
Burt Rubenstein
Jenzabar
[email protected]
Overview
 Psychologist with background in K-20 student success, vocational
psychology and higher education
 Faculty for 17 years
 3 years as Director of Career Transitions Research Dept. at ACT
 7 years as Director of Institutional Research
 Director of graduate programs
 FYE Advisory Board, Journal Editor
 2013-2014 ACE Leadership Fellow – Montana State University (higher
education financing and student success agenda)
 Active in secondary and higher education consulting for 14 years in the US
and 9 foreign countries
 Worked on development and implementation of 3 non-cognitive measures
of student success with dozens of institutions
© 2015 Jenzabar, Inc.
Overview
The role of
Non-cognitive
Factors
In Student Success
Evidence of
non-cognitives
in academic
success and
retention
© 2015 Jenzabar, Inc.
Assessment
tool and
use case
models
STUDENT PROGRESSION
Fail to Complete High School
Fail to Attend College
Fail to Complete college
© 2015 Jenzabar, Inc.
Is this what we want
to call Success?
Student Progression
Retention Rates
Private
Universities
80%
Public
Universities
70%
2-Year
Colleges
50%
First Gen
© 2015 Jenzabar, Inc.
30%
Risk Prediction and Mitigation
Applicants
Risk
Mitigation
Grades, ACT, SAT, Course Placement Exams
© 2015 Jenzabar, Inc.
Risk Prediction and Mitigation
Applicants
I just don’t know
how to study
My friends were all
going to college so I
went too
College is so much
harder than high school
– I was too stressed out
I don’t know what
happened. I never paid
attention in my high
school classes!
Grades, ACT, SAT, Course Placement Exams
© 2015 Jenzabar, Inc.
I didn’t feel
welcomed or
involved on campus
Predicting Student Success
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Demographics (opportunity structure)
Academic ability/aptitude (ACT/SAT/GPA)
Finances
Motivation
Lack of direction
Lack of knowledge
Life demands
Self confidence
Campus and academic engagement
© 2015 Jenzabar, Inc.
Predicting Student Success
‘In addition to
content knowledge
and academic skills,
students must develop
sets of behaviors, skills,
attitudes and strategies
that are crucial to
academic performance
in their classes…’
© 2015 Jenzabar, Inc.
Predicting Student Success
GPA
Standardized
Achievement
5 – 8%
College
Success
Non-cognitive
Skills
Leuwerke, Gore, Cole, & Reese, (2011)
© 2015 Jenzabar, Inc.
Predicting Student Success
College Success
Outperforming
At risk
Grades, ACT, SAT, Course Placement Exams
© 2015 Jenzabar, Inc.
Predicting Student Success
College Success
Outperforming
High Resiliency
High Engagement
At risk
Low Educational
Commitment
Grades, ACT, SAT, Course Placement Exams
© 2015 Jenzabar, Inc.
Predicting Student Success
 If non-cognitive factors reliably predict student outcomes (and
they do)
 And you can reliably measure incoming student non-cognitive
strengths and weaknesses (and you can)
 And you already have the programs and services that can be
mapped to those strengths and weaknesses (and you do)
 Why wouldn’t you seek to align non-cognitive assessment and
other predictive data with existing programs and services to
promote student success?
© 2015 Jenzabar, Inc.
College Readiness Inventory (CRI)
49 Items
7 Scales
Fall
2015
Psychometrically
Sound
• Predictive model
enhancement
• FYE topic focus
• Student advising
and goal setting
• Targeted outreach
and intervention
• Risk mitigation
© 2015 Jenzabar, Inc.
Predictive
validity
study
underway
College Readiness Inventory (CRI)
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Academic Engagement
Academic Self-Efficacy
Campus Engagement
Educational Commitment
Institutional Valence
Life Complexity/Roles
Resilience
© 2015 Jenzabar, Inc.
Non-cognitive Interventions
 Use institutional data to
allocate resources across
programs
 Use data to inform
classroom level teaching
and interventions
 Use data to inform cohort
level needs
 Use data to intervene with
students: Make an
ACTION PLAN
© 2015 Jenzabar, Inc.
CRI: Private 4 Year Univ
© 2015 Jenzabar, Inc.
CRI: Priv. Rel Afil. 4 Year
© 2015 Jenzabar, Inc.
CRI: Public 2 Year
© 2015 Jenzabar, Inc.
CRI: Priv. Rel Afil. 4 Year
© 2015 Jenzabar, Inc.
CRI: Student Examples
Resiliency
Life Roles
Institutional Valence
Educational Commitment
Campus Engagement
Academic Self-Efficacy
Academic Engagement
0
© 2015 Jenzabar, Inc.
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
CRI: Student Examples
Resiliency
Life Roles
Institutional Valence
Educational Commitment
Campus Engagement
Academic Self-Efficacy
Academic Engagement
0
© 2015 Jenzabar, Inc.
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
CRI: Student Examples
Resiliency
Life Roles
Institutional Valence
Educational Commitment
Campus Engagement
Academic Self-Efficacy
Academic Engagement
0
© 2015 Jenzabar, Inc.
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
© 2015 Jenzabar, Inc.
Next Steps
 Complete predictive modeling
analysis
 Scale institutional use
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•
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•
Institutional reports
Student level reports
Recommendations
Staff/advisor training
 Consult with institutions to
develop use-case models that
take advantage of existing
retention predictors as well as
non-cognitive factors
© 2015 Jenzabar, Inc.
Thank You
Paul Gore
Xavier University
[email protected]
Burt Rubenstein
Jenzabar
[email protected]
© 2015 Jenzabar, Inc.
CRI Scales
Scale Name
Academic
Engagement
Academic
Self-Efficacy
Campus
Engagement
Educational
Commitment
Institutional
Valence
Measures:
Sample Items
academic engagement and global
student success behaviors
Sometimes I miss assignment deadlines.
I spend at least two hours a day studying for my classes.
student's self-confidence in his or her
ability to meet academic milestones
student's interest/intent in getting
involved in co-curricular campus
activities
the perceived importance of a college
degree
I'm confident I can earn a 3.0 or higher grade point average.
I'm concerned about my note-taking skills.
student's affinity/connection to this
particular institution
This college was not my first choice.
I'm happy with my decision to enroll at [Institution Name].
Life Roles
complexity/demands of other
important life roles
I have other obligations that compete with my course work.
I am able to devote all of my time to college.
Resilience
how well students are able to deal with
adverse life events and stress
Most people would describe me as a "survivor."
I'm easily overwhelmed.
© 2015 Jenzabar, Inc.
I don't spend any more time on campus than I have to.
I spend time with other students outside of the classroom.
School is my number one priority right now.
Earning a degree is important for my career success.