FINAL REPORT
School provision
review for Docklands
Stage one: needs analysis
Department of Education and Training
Final report
© Capire Consulting Group Pty Ltd.
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All content is subject to copyright and may not be reproduced in any form without express written
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Authorisation can be obtained via email to [email protected] or in writing to:
96 Pelham Street Carlton VIC Australia 3053.
Glossary of terms
1
Executive summary
2
1 Introduction
5
2 Stage one study areas
6
3 Planning context
9
3.1 State policy
9
3.2 Local planning context
Land use
Population growth and population profile
Learnings from the engagement process relating to the local planning
context
11
11
11
4 Existing primary and secondary school provision
14
4.1 Primary schools
14
4.2 Secondary schools
15
4.3 Specialist schools
17
4.4 Learnings from the engagement process relating to existing school
supply
17
5 Needs assessment
18
5.1 Primary school needs assessment
Demand forecasts
Primary school demand from Docklands
Trends in access
Capacity analysis
18
18
19
20
21
5.2 Secondary school needs assessment
Demand forecasts
Secondary school demand from Docklands
Trends in access
Capacity analysis
23
23
24
25
26
5.3 Specialist schools
28
5.4 Engagement findings relating to trends in demand and access
28
5.5 Engagement findings to be considered in stage two
29
6 Conclusions
31
Appendices
34
Appendix A: Stage one project methodology
34
12
Appendix B: Land use map
35
Appendix C: Forecast population growth for primary and secondary school
aged children
36
Appendix D: SEIFA Index of Disadvantage
38
Appendix E: Total primary and secondary school aged demand
39
Appendix F: Market share analysis
40
Appendix G: Student address analysis
41
Appendix H: Enrolment demand analysis
44
Appendix I: Individual government primary school reports
45
Note: Forecasts are approximate only Appendix J: Individual government
secondary school reports
51
Appendix K: Specialist school demand calculations
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SCHOOL PROVISION REVIEW FOR DOCKLANDS, FINAL REPORT
Glossary of terms
Demand reporting units (DRUs): the areas around a school that align with the statistical
building blocks (ABS Statistical Area Level 1s - SA1s) closest to that school. These are used in
demographic analysis only. The DRUs closely resemble the school’s designated neighbourhood
boundary.
Current school capacity: the estimated current number of students that can be
accommodated within the school facilities, including relocatable classrooms.
Permanent school capacity: the estimated number of students that can be accommodated
within the school's permanent teaching facilities (therefore excluding relocatable classrooms).
Local enrolment: the number of school aged students that live in the DRU of their local school
and also attend it.
Total school demand: the number of school aged students either living in, or forecast to live in
the DRU (see above).
Government school demand: the number of school aged students either living in, or forecast
to live in the DRU (see above) attending a government school.
Market share: the percentage of total demand within the DRU that attend a government school.
School aged students: children aged five to 11 years (primary) or 12 to 17 years (secondary).
Designated neighbourhood boundary (sometimes known as a school catchment
boundary) (Boundary): defines the enrolment area of a government school campus and
determines the residential area for which that campus is the nearest government school. This is
derived using two different methodologies depending on where a student lives:

for the Melbourne region, Geelong, Ballarat and Bendigo, the boundary is calculated by
drawing the midway point, in a straight line, between the location of the school and all
surrounding government school campuses offering similar education provision. The
catchment formed by this boundary cuts across geographic features such as residential
blocks, roads and rivers.

for any other area of Victoria, the boundary is calculated by determining the shortest
practicable route by distance from residences to the school using all-weather public
roads drivable by car.
Note—for a small number of campuses with restricted education provision (for example, senior
secondary campuses), the designated neighbourhood boundary is determined using a different
methodology.
Designated neighbourhood zone (Zone): represents the enrolment area served by a
government school campus after the Department of Education and Training has approved a
change to the designated neighbourhood boundary in response to pressure on enrolment
capacity. The boundary of a Zone typically follows geographic features such as roads and
rivers.
Victorian Auditor-General: an independent office of the Victorian Parliament, appointed to
examine the management of resources within the public sector on behalf of Parliament and all
Victorians.
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Executive summary
Capire Consulting Group (Capire) and Spatial Vision have been commissioned by the
Department of Education and Training (the Department) to undertake a needs assessment for
additional primary and secondary school provision to support the Docklands community. The
assessment synthesises school planning data provided by the Department with feedback and
consultation received from representatives of the local community, Council, local school
principals and a community reference group.
The project is being conducted over two stages. Stage one (this report) assesses the level of
need generated from Docklands and the surrounding communities for both primary and
secondary school education. Stage two will consider additional data and develop options to
meet the identified need.
Key issues:
Planning for schools in inner-city and established communities is complex. This analysis has
identified that reputation, quality and access are key factors that a family considers when
choosing a school for their child.
The analysis identifies that:

The Docklands area is projected to have significant population change and is likely to
experience large residential, commercial and employment growth.

By 2031, there is likely to be insufficient capacity across the Docklands and surrounding
study area to accommodate projected government school demand including a shortfall of
around 4,800 primary school enrolment places and around 2,000 secondary school
enrolment places.

In some locations, there are differences between projected enrolment data and the school’s
forecast demand by local Demand Reporting Units (DRUs). This suggests that some
families are not always accessing their local school and that some schools are attracting
students from outside their local area.

Enrolment trends suggest that family choice, access, transport and school reputation impact
how the network operates. In particular, the Docklands/North Melbourne area has been
identified as having significant access issues. There are significant physical barriers and
limited public transport connections, which creates high car reliance in accessing
surrounding schools.

The reputation of a school is acting as an attractor (when positive) and a barrier (when
negative) and therefore some schools within the network are experiencing more demand
pressure than others.

Some schools have a high reliance on relocatable classrooms to achieve total capacity.
There is concern from Council, principals and community stakeholders regarding the
sustainability of this approach, as well as concern about the possible impact on non-built
school facilities, such as access to outdoor areas and play spaces.
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Primary schools
Overall, the study area is expected to have a shortfall of around 4,800 primary school enrolment
places in 2031.
The DRUs likely to experience the most significant demand pressures are:

North Melbourne Primary School DRU: Expected shortfall of approximately 1,500
enrolment places as a result of significant population growth. North Melbourne Primary
School has enrolment forecasts beyond the local DRU government primary school demand,
indicating that it is a school of choice and draws families from outside its local DRU.

Albert Park Primary School DRU: Projected shortfall of over 1,500 enrolment places. This
school also attracts a large number of children from outside its local DRU indicating that it is
also a school of choice.

Port Melbourne Primary School DRU: Expected shortfall of 600 enrolment places as a
result of significant population growth. Port Melbourne Primary School’s enrolment forecasts
are significantly higher than the local DRU government primary school demand as it draws
a significant number of students from the Albert Park DRU.
All three of these schools currently rely on relocatable classrooms to achieve total capacity.
Irrespective of enrolment forecasts, these schools will require relocatable classrooms to meet
local DRU demand in the long-term.
This is particularly the case for North Melbourne Primary School and Albert Park Primary School
that currently have DRU demand beyond their total capacity. Port Melbourne Primary School
has capacity to manage the local DRU demand up to 2020 when considering the capacity
provided in relocatable classrooms.
The suburb of Docklands currently lies within the North Melbourne Primary School DRU and the
Port Melbourne Primary School DRU. Student address mapping illustrates that that majority of
government primary school students living in Docklands attend North Melbourne Primary
School and, to a lesser extent, Port Melbourne Primary School and Carlton Gardens Primary
School.
Secondary schools
Overall, the study area is expected to have a shortfall of around 2,000 government secondary
school enrolment places in 2031.
The DRUs likely to experience the most significant demand pressures are:

University High School DRU: This school is likely to experience a shortfall of
approximately 400 enrolment places by 2031. The analysis indicates that this is a school of
choice that draws a significant number of families from outside its local DRU and outside
the study area. University High School has a Designated Neighbourhood Zone (Zone) that
limits enrolments. Docklands forms part of the DRU but sits outside the Zone. Families in
Docklands are able to attend University High School based on curriculum grounds however,
increasing enrolment pressure generated by significant population growth expected in this
DRU may limit future accessibility.
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
Albert Park College DRU: This school is likely to experience a shortfall of almost 900
enrolment places. Albert Park College services a comparatively local catchment. The data
analysis indicates that this school does not draw a significant number of students from the
Docklands area.
Key findings
By 2031, there will be insufficient capacity across the study area to accommodate projected
government primary and secondary school demand.
There are also a number of primary schools that are likely to rely on relocatable classrooms to
achieve total capacity in 2031. The long-term use of relocatable classrooms will require further
analysis and consideration.
The engagement process has highlighted that access and transport are factors that significantly
influence which schools families attend within the network. These issues require further analysis
and consideration in stage two of the project.
Recommendations
It is recommended that stage two of the project is undertaken and includes:

Investigation of options to increase school provision to support the Docklands resident
community.

Further analysis of transport and access to provide a better understanding of how people
move through the area. The analysis should consider existing and future provision by
different modes of transport including cycling, walking, driving and public transport.

Investigation of the long-term use of relocatable classrooms on existing school sites to
achieve total capacity in order to meet forecast demand.

Assessment of the impacts that potential options may have on the schools that currently
support the Docklands community.
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1 Introduction
In recent years strong population growth has seen a resurgence of student populations in many
inner areas. The Department of Education and Training (the Department) is aware that
enrolment pressure is being experienced by many schools within the network that support the
Docklands area. There is a commitment by state and local planning authorities to ensure that
projected enrolment is monitored and planned for.
Project background
A feasibility study was undertaken for North Melbourne and Docklands in 2011-12 to consider
the potential for a new primary school in the area. The report canvassed three key issues,
including a review of demographic need for a new school in the future, identifying the optimal
form and design of an inner urban primary school and identifying the preferred locations for a
new primary school.
A key election promise of the Victorian Government was to restart the planning process for
school provision in Docklands by updating the 2011-12 feasibility study. The refresh was to
consider updated demographic data and reassess the site options if the need for local school
provision was identified.
Project scope
This project assesses the need for and viability of additional primary and secondary school
provision in Docklands. The project is being conducted over two stages. This report is stage
one. It assesses the level of need generated from the Docklands community for both primary
and secondary school education.
See Appendix A for stage one project methodology.
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2 Stage one study areas
In line with the Victorian Government’s election commitment to restart the school planning
process for Docklands, two study areas have been developed for this project– one for primary
schools and one for secondary schools. The study areas were developed with input from the
community and responds to access trends identified through existing student mapping data.
The study areas are based on school Demand Reporting Units (DRUs) and were defined in
collaboration with the community. In some instances the DRU boundaries do not align with
suburb or municipal boundaries.
The study areas focuses on the suburb of Docklands however DRUs outside of Docklands have
been included to identify the schools that families currently travel to access education. It is also
important to identify these travel patterns to understand the impact that a new school in
Docklands may have on the broader network.
The secondary school study area is slightly larger than the primary school study area in order to
represent the larger catchment attributed to secondary schools. Families living within Docklands
and the student address mapping data strongly identifies a relationship to the nearby suburbs of
North Melbourne, Port Melbourne, Albert Park, Parkville and Flemington to access primary and
secondary school education.
Each study area has been prepared for demographic analysis and to assist in understanding
trends in school access for this project. These study areas will not be used to determine future
locations of new schools.
The two study areas are illustrated in Figure 1 and Figure 2.
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SCHOOL PROVISION REVIEW FOR DOCKLANDS, FINAL REPORT
Figure 1: Primary school study area showing included primary school DRUs
Source: Spatial Vision, November 2015
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Figure 2: Secondary school study area showing included secondary school DRUs
Source: Spatial Vision, November 2015
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SCHOOL PROVISION REVIEW FOR DOCKLANDS, FINAL REPORT
3 Planning context
3.1 State policy
This section outlines the Department’s school provision planning in Victoria. It is important
context for understanding how schools are planned and how funding is prioritised.
Victorian Government Policy
As outlined in the Education State Reform Policy, the Victorian Government is committed to
delivering a high quality education system. The vision for Victoria as the Education State is
about the guarantee of educational excellence and opportunity in every community. Part of the
Victorian Government’s commitment to becoming the Education State is ensuring ‘every
community has access to a great school’.
The Victorian Government aims to provide school students with disabilities access to a range of
education opportunities across mainstream supported inclusion and specialist settings. The
Victorian Government has made a commitment that all newly built government schools—or
schools undertaking planning works—will provide facilities to accommodate the diverse needs
of students. The Government supports the creation of inclusive facilities to allow students to
learn in a positive, safe and accessible environment that supports their development and
encourages better student outcomes.
The Department is currently reviewing the Program for Students with Disabilities (PSD). This
review is intended to increase the capacity of government schools to support and maximise the
learning of children with disabilities using a family friendly, strength-based approach.
Approach to school provision planning
DET has the following key objectives when planning schools across Victoria:

ensure there is sufficient capacity to accommodate all government school students that
currently live or are expected to live in a given area

carefully balance key outcomes including accessibility, viability and financial sustainability

deliver schools that meet the diverse needs of their local communities.
For many years the growth in the number of school aged children in Victoria remained relatively
stable. However, population forecasts project significant growth in school-aged children across
the State of Victoria. This growth is likely to increase pressure on existing infrastructure and
increase demand for new infrastructure.
As illustrated in Figure 3, the City of Melbourne is projected to be the seventh fastest growing
municipality in Victoria for 5 to 19 year olds between 2016 and 2031.
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Figure 3: Number of 5 to 19 year olds projected for the years 2016 and 2031 in the fastest
growing municipalities in Victoria
Source: Victoria in the Future 2015; Capire, November 2015
In addition to managing this high rate of growth, the Department has the ongoing challenge of
managing the viability of existing infrastructure across Victoria. The Victorian Auditor-General
identified a considerable surplus of 38 per cent of building space across the education portfolio1.
Although this may not significantly impact existing schools supporting residents in Docklands,
the long-term viability of a school is a key influencing factor when considering the development
of new infrastructure.
The Department measures long-term demand for primary and secondary school by calculating
the demand generated within the school’s DRU. This supports the Department’s policy to
provide local access to education. The analysis in this report suggests enrolment data can
sometimes be significantly different from local DRU demand.
Short-term enrolment demand is used to understand trends in access as well as school
capacity, teaching requirements and funding entitlements. There are limitations in planning for
permanent school infrastructure using enrolment demand given it can fluctuate over time and is
often linked to the reputation of the school.
The Department manages the use of relocatable classrooms to achieve the total capacity of a
school. Government policy is that capacity is managed in the first instance by using relocatable
classrooms. If increased capacity is required in the long term, the development of additional
permanent facilities is considered.
The Department has engaged a consultant to undertake a review of key standards and models
underpinning its approach to the planning of new government schools. Project outputs will
assist the Department to make more efficient and effective decisions regarding school planning
and seeks to support the delivery of a high performance asset base and improved educational
outcomes.
1
Implementation of School Infrastructure Programs, Victorian Auditor-General, February 2013
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SCHOOL PROVISION REVIEW FOR DOCKLANDS, FINAL REPORT
The review will examine key planning standards that inform the location, size and configuration
of new government schools across the State of Victoria, as well as strategies to manage
temporary peaks in school enrolments. The work involves a review of similar approaches in
other jurisdictions, analysis of key demographic data, geospatial analysis and stakeholder
engagement.
Prioritisation of projects
The Department recognises that the prioritisation of need across Victoria must be balanced and
equitable. In order to prioritise projects, each year the Department undertakes analysis and
evaluation of proposed new school projects and school upgrades to identify future need. These
projects are prioritised for consideration in the annual budget process for school capital
investments across the State of Victoria.
3.2 Local planning context
This section provides an overview of the local planning context for school provision in the
Docklands study areas. It includes existing land uses, current and future demographics, current
school provision and enrolment trends.
Land use
The suburb of Docklands is located just west of the Melbourne CBD. The suburb is also
surrounded by Port Melbourne, Southbank, South Melbourne and South Wharf. Docklands is a
suburb with a mix of uses. It has entertainment uses including restaurants and shops,
commercial offices and residential areas comprised primarily of high density apartments. The
area has significant physical boundaries including the Yarra River and Westgate Freeway to the
south and industrial areas to the west and north. The proposed Western Distributor will border
Docklands to the north and may present a significant physical barrier for Docklands families
travelling north. Further consideration is needed to understand how the Western Distributor may
impact access for families in Docklands once a more detailed design is available.
There is currently limited open space in Docklands. Opportunities for increasing open space
through the shared use of facilities should be a consideration in the planning of new schools
that support Docklands.
A detailed map of land uses is provided in Appendix B.
Population growth and population profile
The policy review has identified a range of policy and urban development factors impacting
population growth in the study area.
Plan Melbourne
The Victorian Government policy to guide population growth in the Melbourne metropolitan
area, Plan Melbourne 2014 recognises Docklands as a key expansion of the Melbourne CBD.
The Government has designated waterfront land for both commercial and residential
development. The ongoing role for Docklands and Southbank is to allow the continued location
and growth of knowledge-intensive and high-skilled firms in the central city, while continuing to
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be a major area for tourism, retail, residential, entertainment, sporting and cultural activities.
There are also a number of sites identified for further expansion of Melbourne’s CBD including:

Fishermans Bend Urban Renewal Area

E-Gate

Arden-Macaulay

Dynon Corridor.
Both Fishermans Bend and Arden-Macaulay have been identified as having an important role in
accommodating future housing and employment growth.
Population projections
The Department uses population forecasts developed by independent demographic
consultants. These forecasts are specifically prepared for the Department to forecast future
demand for school provision. The population forecasts take into account the latest ABS data,
building approvals data, aerial photography, Victorian Government development data, as well
as input from local councils across Victoria.
Projections indicate that the population aged between 5 and 17 in the City of Melbourne is
expected to increase by over 15,500 persons between 2011 and 2031. This is a population
increase of almost 300 per cent.
When considering the distribution of school aged children across the study area between 2011
and 2031 the areas expected to experience the most significant change in the primary school
aged population are, Docklands, North Melbourne, Flemington and Carlton. With regards to the
change in the secondary school aged population the suburbs most likely to experience the most
significant population growth are, Docklands, North Melbourne, Parkville and Carlton.
See Appendix C for a more detailed map illustrating the change in the numbers of school-aged
children across the study area.
Socio-economic characteristics
The distribution of disadvantage throughout the Docklands study areas is varied and localised.
Both the primary and secondary study areas illustrate that existing DRUs incorporate diverse
communities of both high and low disadvantage. The highest levels of disadvantage are evident
in areas which have large populations of newly arrived communities and social housing such as
Footscray, Flemington and Carlton. However, DRUs for schools in these suburbs also include
areas of lowest disadvantage such as Kensington and Ascot Vale. Overall, DRUs for Footscray
City College, University High School and Carlton Gardens Primary School have the highest
levels of disadvantage, while disadvantage is generally lowest in the south of the study area
around Port Melbourne and Albert Park.
See Appendix D for more detail regarding the distribution of disadvantage.
Learnings from the engagement process relating to the
local planning context
Throughout the engagement process, local community representatives, local school principals
and local government participants raised the following issues in regard to land use, built form
and population growth:
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SCHOOL PROVISION REVIEW FOR DOCKLANDS, FINAL REPORT
Land use

The configuration of current land uses within Docklands can limit opportunities for
community cohesion and connectedness. Council acknowledges that Docklands is still
being built and developed to optimise walkability and supports a mixed-use
neighbourhood.

The physical boundaries, such as roads and rail, prevent smooth links to surrounding
areas where schools are located. Families feel they are forced to drive and are
spending long periods of time travelling due to congestion.

The location of Docklands is in close proximity to public transport, however, there is a
lack of connection between Docklands and surrounding schools.

There is a gap in the provision of quality open spaces for children, which is particularly
important for children living in apartments.
Built form

Council believes that community facilities such as the library, the Hub community
centre, family services and sporting facilities are seen to encourage families to move to
Docklands by supporting early learning and health and well-being,

It is important that any school provision in Docklands is consistent with the Departments
policy of being inclusive to accommodate the varying needs of all children.


High wind conditions and poor pedestrian connections impact how people move around
Docklands.
An increasing number of families are choosing to live in higher density developments.
There are a range of family household types with varying priorities for school access
and provision. While some families may want to send their children to non-government
schools, there is an increasing number of families looking towards government school
options.
Population profile
13

City workers may want to access schools in inner city areas and it is unclear how their
needs will be accommodated in the future.

Docklands is becoming increasingly multicultural. There is a challenge in planning for
the diverse cultural needs of the community and a need to ensure all schools are
inclusive of all cultural backgrounds.

Council acknowledges Docklands attracts many older, retired residents as well as many
contracted professionals and service industry workers from overseas, and has pockets
of social housing, all of which has influenced the culture of the suburb.

Council has identified that the population profile of Docklands reflects the absence of a
local primary or secondary school. They also identified a trend of young families moving
away from Docklands.
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SCHOOL PROVISION REVIEW FOR DOCKLANDS, FINAL REPORT
4 Existing primary and
secondary school provision
4.1 Primary schools
Government primary schools
There are currently seven government primary schools in the study area. Table 1 details both
permanent capacity and total capacity of each school (which includes all relocatable
classrooms), as well as existing 2015 enrolments. The spatial distribution of existing supply is
uneven, with no schools in Docklands, Melbourne CBD and South Melbourne (see Figure 1).
Table 1: Existing government primary school supply
School
Albert Park Primary School
Carlton Gardens Primary School
Debney Meadows Primary School
Footscray City Primary School
Kensington Primary School
North Melbourne Primary School
Port Melbourne Primary School
Total
Permanent
capacity
Total
capacity
Current
enrolments
(2015)
Spare
capacity
275
275
350
450
500
425
250
2,525
500
350
350
450
500
650
725
3,525
500
337
88
252
469
646
712
3,004
0
13
262
198
31
4
13
521
Source: DET, November 2015; Spatial Vision, November 2015
As illustrated in Table 1, there are several schools utilising relocatable classrooms to increase
their total capacity. These are:

Albert Park Primary School (additional 225 enrolments provided by relocatable classrooms)

North Melbourne Primary School (additional 225 enrolments provided by relocatable
classrooms)

Port Melbourne Primary School (additional 425 enrolments provided by relocatable
classrooms).
It is important to note that Carlton Primary School is located just outside the study area. This
school plays a limited role in supporting existing Docklands families. There was a much stronger
emphasis on families accessing schools located to the north and south of Docklands for
example North Melbourne Primary School and Port Melbourne Primary School. In 2015 the
Victorian Government announced a major redevelopment for Carlton Primary School. This
redevelopment is likely to respond to the localised development pressure expected for the
Carlton area.
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Trends in government primary school enrolments
Analysis of school enrolments between 2011 and 2015 shows that the majority of schools have
had fluctuating enrolments with the exception of Debney Meadows Primary School. This school
and Footscray City Primary School had a significant decline in enrolments between 2011 and
2012. All other schools have had strong increases in enrolments in the last five years.
The following schools have experienced the most significant increases in enrolments:

Port Melbourne Primary School (additional 268 enrolments)

Carlton Gardens Primary School (additional 141 enrolments)

North Melbourne Primary School (additional 129 enrolments)

Kensington Primary School (additional 116 enrolments).
See Appendix H for more detail regarding historical and forecast enrolment data.
Planned government primary schools
The Victorian Government has committed to two schools in the study area: South Melbourne
Primary School in Ferrars Street and South Melbourne Park. These commitments are expected
to provide additional capacity for around 1,000 students.
Non-government primary schools
There are currently four non-government primary schools in the study area:

Galilee Regional Catholic Primary School

Holy Rosary School

St Brendan’s School

St Michael’s School.
4.2 Secondary schools
Government secondary schools
There are currently five government secondary schools across the study area, however they are
not evenly distributed, with no schools in Docklands, Melbourne CBD and South Melbourne
(see Figure 2).
Table 2 details both the permanent capacity and total capacity of each government secondary
school. Total capacity includes all relocatable classrooms.
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Table 2: Existing government secondary schools in the study area
School
Albert Park College
Footscray City College
Mount Alexander 7–12 College
Princes Hill Secondary College
University High School
Total
Permanent
capacity
Total
capacity
Current
enrolments
(2015)
Spare
capacity
800
1,200
500
900
1,350
4,750
900
1,200
500
900
1,400
4,900
891
916
304
869
1,400
4,381
9
284
196
31
0
519
Source: DET, November 2015; Spatial Vision, November 2015
Footscray City College and Mount Alexander Year 7–12 College are currently under-utilised
with significant spare capacity.
Trends in government secondary school enrolments
Analysis of school enrolments between 2011 and 2015 illustrated that a number of schools have
had comparatively stable enrolments over the last five years, including Mount Alexander Year
7–12 College and Princes Hill Secondary College. However, others have had significant
fluctuations, including:

Albert Park College (annual increases of between 179 and 222 across the five years, with
an overall increase of 740 enrolments between 2011 and 2015). The school’s academic
program has progressively expanded following its opening in 2011.

University High School had relatively stable enrolments between 2011 and 2014, however,
experienced a significant increase of 161 enrolments between 2014 and 2015.
Non-government secondary schools
There are eight non-government secondary schools in the study area:

Academy of Mary Immaculate (Years 7–12)

Eltham College (Year 9)

Holmes Secondary College (Years 11–12)

Melbourne Grammar School (Years 7–12)

Ozford College (Years 11–12)

Simonds Catholic College (Years 7–12)

St Aloysius College (Years 7–12)

Stott’s Colleges (Years 11–12).
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4.3 Specialist schools
There are currently three government specialist schools in the study area. Table 3 details both
the historic enrolments for government schools as well as 2015 enrolments.
Table 3: Specialist school demand data
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
Ascot Vale Special School
112
99
111
105
113
Change
(#)
(2011–
15)
2
Port Phillip Specialist School
126
135
140
139
131
5
4.12
Yarraville Special Development School
43
48
49
58
60
16
37.96
Total
281
281
299
302
304
23
8.26
Historic enrolments
Name of specialist schools
Change
(%)
(2011–
15)
1.43
Source: DET, November 2015; Spatial Vision, November 2015
4.4 Learnings from the engagement process
relating to existing school supply
Throughout the engagement process, local community representatives, school principals and
local government participants raised the following issues in regard to existing supply:

All participant groups raised concerns with regard to the reliance on relocatable classrooms
to achieve total capacity in the long term, particularly how this impacts on space for nonbuilt school facilities such as play areas and open space.

Many Docklands families currently feel they have a lack of choice in schooling as many
nearby schools are at, or approaching capacity. They feel they must travel further than other
inner city families.

Overcrowding of schools was seen as a factor that impacts access to quality outdoor space.
The rapid population growth and the site size of surrounding schools was identified as a
point of concern for families. North Melbourne Primary School is growing at a rate of one
classroom per year and there are high student populations in the area surrounding Port
Melbourne Primary School.

There was concern about the inclusion of Debney Meadows Primary School and Mount
Alexander Secondary School in the study area as these schools are not seen as being
easily accessible by families living in Docklands.
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5 Needs assessment
5.1 Primary school needs assessment
Demand forecasts
Total demand
The demand for primary school enrolments for each DRU was determined by examining the
projected change in the total number of primary-school-aged children (5 to 11 year olds)
between 2011 and 2031. The primary study area is expected to have an increase of almost
8,300 primary-school-aged children between 2011 and 2031, which is equivalent to a 194 per
cent increase. The DRUs likely to experience the most significant population growth in primary
school aged children are:

Albert Park Primary School DRU (approximately 2,400 additional students)

North Melbourne Primary School DRU (approximately 2,100 additional students)

Carlton Gardens Primary School DRU (approximately 1,700 additional students)

Port Melbourne Primary School DRU (approximately 1,200 additional students).
See Appendix E for more detailed data regarding primary school demand for each DRU.
Market share analysis
Government schools cater for a portion of total primary school demand, with the remaining
demand absorbed by Catholic and independent schools. To determine future government
school demand, an assessment was undertaken to calculate government school share for each
DRU within the study area between 2011 and 2015. The analysis illustrated only a slight
variance in the government school market share between 2011 and 2015.
More detailed analysis is required to forecast government school market share, which is outside
the scope of this assessment. The government market share as at 2015 for each of the DRUs
has been used to forecast future government school demand from 2016 to 2031. This is
detailed in Table 4.
See Appendix F for more detail regarding the market share analysis undertaken for this study.
Government demand forecasts
Table 4 illustrates the demand for government primary schools per DRU when the DRU
government market share is applied to the projected primary school demand. The analysis
shows that there is likely to be an increase of approximately 5,600 government primary-schoolaged children between 2011 and 2031. This is equivalent to an increase of almost 210 per cent.
In line with total school demand projections, the DRUs likely to experience the most significant
increases in government primary school demand are:

Albert Park Primary School DRU (approximately 1,400 additional students)

North Melbourne Primary School (approximately 1,700 additional students)
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
Carlton Gardens Primary School (approximately 1,000 additional students)

Port Melbourne Primary School (approximately 900 additional students).
Table 4: Projected government primary school demand between 2011 and 2031
Government primary school
Government
school
market
share
(2015)*
Government primary school demand*
2011
2016
2020
2026
2031
Change
(#)
(2011–
31)
Change
(%) (2011–
31)
Albert Park Primary School
58.2
618
906
1,161
1,713
2,045
1,427
230.84
Carlton Gardens Primary School
58.2
197
387
574
926
1,190
993
503.86
Debney Meadows Primary School
59.7
391
378
388
438
435
44
11.31
Footscray City Primary School
69.2
287
307
368
471
567
280
97.47
Kensington Primary School
57.5
336
430
545
508
579
243
72.33
North Melbourne Primary School
82.0
464
806
1,187
1,829
2,166
1,702
366.73
Port Melbourne Primary School
72.4
381
536
655
880
1,302
921
241.86
Summary
65.3
2,674
3,749
4,878
6,765
8,283
5,609
209.77
*Numbers are forecasts and approximate only Source: DET, November 2015; Spatial Vision, November 2015
Primary school demand from the Docklands community
As previously identified, the suburb of Docklands currently falls within two DRUs - North
Melbourne Primary School and Port Melbourne Primary School. It is therefore difficult to assess
the level of demand generated from Docklands through the use of DRU level data. Therefore,
additional demographic analysis has been undertaken focussing solely on Docklands.
In the suburb of Docklands, between 2011 and 2015 there was an increase of 111 primary
school aged persons (from 52 to 163 persons). Between 2015 and 2035 the total number of
primary school aged children is expected to increase by 700 students (total of 866 in 2035).
The government market share at 2015 for Docklands was 54.6 per cent. This proportion is
significantly less than the study area average of 65.3 per cent. If a new school is to be built for
Docklands it would be expected that the market share would increase, therefore the following
table calculates demand for government primary school enrolments based on the 2015 suburb
market share compared to the study area average.
Table 5 illustrates that by applying the 2015 suburb market share, there is likely to be demand
for less than 500 government primary school enrolment places for Docklands. However, by
applying the study area average, the demand is likely to be almost 100 places more.
If a new primary school is recommended in Docklands a more robust analysis of future market
share will need to be undertaken.
Table 5: Docklands primary school demand forecast between 2011 and 2035
Government
school market
share (2015)
Government primary school demand*
2011
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
Docklands suburb market share calculations
54.6
35
89
179
193
387
473
Primary study area market share calculations
65.3
n/a
n/a
214
231
463
565
*Numbers are forecasts and approximate only Source: DET, January 2016
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Trends in access
An analysis of access trends was undertaken to understand movement patterns within and
outside of the network. The analysis included student address mapping and enrolment
forecasts, as well as consultation findings.
Student address mapping
The analysis of the 2015 enrolment data detailing student addresses highlighted that while
some schools service a relatively local enrolment population, there are a number of schools
attracting large proportions of families living outside of the school’s DRU. There are also a
number of students (360 students) traveling from outside the study area to access schools
within the study area, particularly Footscray City Primary School. The schools which service a
more local enrolment population include:

Albert Park Primary School (almost 90 per cent of enrolments are within the school’s DRU)

Debney Meadows Primary School (almost 82 per cent of enrolments are within the school’s
DRU)

North Melbourne Primary School (almost 84 per cent of enrolments are within the school’s
DRU).
Schools that families travel the furthest for are Carlton Gardens Primary School (median
distance of 1.6 kilometres) and Kensington Primary School (median distance of 1.51
kilometres).
Additionally, the student address mapping highlighted that there are physical boundaries that
define where families travel. These include major roads and land uses such as industrial
clusters. Some schools have a trend of families traveling towards the CBD to access them such
as Footscray City Primary School and Kensington Primary School. North Melbourne Primary
School appears to be the main primary school accessed by Docklands families. Port Melbourne
Primary School also appears to provide for Docklands families and to a lesser extent Carlton
Gardens Primary School.
The analysis also highlighted that there are a number of students not accessing their
designated local school and are traveling to other schools within the study area. For example,
190 students are travelling from the Port Melbourne DRU to Albert Park Primary School.
However, the majority of students are accessing schools within the study area, with only
approximately 30 students living within the study area and accessing schools outside of it.
For more detailed data relating to the student address analysis, see Appendix G.
Enrolment forecasts
Comparison of DRU government school demand data and enrolment forecast data to 2020
identified a significant difference. Government school demand is estimated to be approximately
1,000 students higher than projected enrolments in 2020. However, there are a number of
schools expected to experience enrolment demand significantly higher than the local DRU
government school demand, as follows:

Albert Park Primary School’s enrolment forecasts are approximately 700 students more
than the local DRU government primary school demand.

Footscray City Primary School’s enrolment forecasts are over 300 students more than the
local DRU government primary school demand.
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
Port Melbourne Primary School’s enrolment forecasts are over 200 students more than the
local DRU government primary school demand.

North Melbourne Primary School’s enrolment forecasts are approximately 500 students
more than the local DRU government primary school demand.
Enrolment forecasts are relatively consistent with the student address mapping analysis which
illustrated that the above schools attract significant numbers of students outside the local DRU.
The exception is Albert Park Primary School which primarily services the local DRU population.
See Appendix H for more detailed enrolment forecasts.
Capacity analysis
As illustrated in Table 6 and Figure 4, forecast population growth for this study area is expected
to be significant. When considering existing school capacities and government school demand,
there is likely to be a total deficit of approximately 4,800 government primary school enrolment
places across the study area by 2031. The DRUs likely to experience the most significant
capacity concerns are:

Albert Park Primary School (deficit of over 1,500 enrolments)2

North Melbourne Primary School (deficit of approximately 1,500 enrolments)

Carlton Gardens Primary School (deficit of over 800 enrolments)

Port Melbourne Primary School (deficit of approximately 600 enrolments).
As discussed, there is a Government commitment for two government primary schools in South
Melbourne, which are likely to address some of the pressure for places at Albert Park Primary
School and Port Melbourne Primary School. There is also a primary school recommended as
part of the Arden–Macaulay precinct planning that could potentially reduce some of the
pressure on North Melbourne Primary School. However, given the significant projected deficits
for these areas, it is unlikely that these schools alone will cater for projected local demand in
2031.
All of the primary schools identified above rely on relocatable classrooms to achieve total
capacity. This will need further consideration when planning for increased school provision in
Docklands.
See Appendix I for detailed individual reports for the schools identified above, illustrating the
comparison between demand, enrolments and capacity between 2011 and 2031.
2
This figure does not include the two schools committed to in South Melbourne.
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Table 6: DRU government school demand capacity assessment
Government primary
school
Albert Park Primary
School
Carlton Gardens Primary
School
Debney Meadows
Primary School
Footscray City Primary
School
Kensington Primary
School
North Melbourne Primary
School
Port Melbourne Primary
School
Summary
Existing
capacity
Government school demand*
2011
2016
2020
2026
2031
618
906
1,161
1,713
2,045
197
387
574
926
391
378
388
287
307
336
Remaining capacity
2011
2016
2020
2026
2031
500
-118
-406
-661
-1,213
-1,545
1,190
350
153
-37
-224
-576
-840
438
435
350
-41
-28
-38
-88
-85
368
471
567
450
163
143
82
-21
-117
430
545
508
579
500
164
70
-45
-8
-79
464
806
1,187
1,829
2,166
650
186
-156
-537
-1,179
-1,516
381
536
655
880
1,302
725
344
189
70
-155
-577
2,674
3,749
4,878
6,765
8,283
3,525
851
-224
-1,353
-3,240
-4,758
*Numbers are forecasts and approximate only Source: DET, November 2015; Spatial Vision, November 2015
Figure 4: Primary school demand, enrolments and capacity overview
Please note: school capacity is not fixed and it is Department policy that additional demand is
managed with relocatable classrooms in the short term where necessary.
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5.2 Secondary school needs assessment
Demand forecasts
Total demand
The secondary school study area is expected to have an increase of almost 14,700 secondaryschool-aged children between 2011 and 2031, which is equivalent to a 148 per cent increase.
The DRUs likely to experience the most significant growth in total secondary-school-aged
children are:

University High School DRU (approximately an additional 8,700 students)

Albert Park College DRU (approximately an additional 3,000 students)

Footscray City College DRU (approximately an additional 1,200 students).
See Appendix E for more detailed data regarding total secondary school demand for each DRU.
Market share analysis
Government schools cater for a portion of total secondary school demand, with the remaining
demand absorbed by Catholic and independent schools. To determine future government
school demand, an assessment was undertaken of government share for each DRU within the
study area between 2011 and 2015. The analysis illustrated only a slight variance in the
government market share between 2011 and 2015. More detailed analysis would be required to
forecast government market share, which is outside the scope of this assessment. The
government market share as at 2015 has been used to forecast future government demand
from 2016 to 2031 (as illustrated in Table 7).
See Appendix F for more detail regarding the market share analysis undertaken for this study.
Government demand forecasts
Table 7 illustrates the demand for government secondary school per DRU when applying the
DRU government market share to the projected total secondary school demand. The analysis
identified that there is likely to be an increase of approximately 3,300 government secondary
school students between 2011 and 2031, which is equivalent to an increase of almost 94 per
cent.
Consistent with total school demand projections, the DRUs likely to experience the most
significant increases in government secondary school demand include:

Albert Park College DRU (approximately an additional 1,300 students)

University High School (approximately an additional 1,100 students)

Footscray City College (approximately an additional 500 students).
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Table 7: Projected government secondary school demand between 2011 and 2031
Government secondary school
demand*
Government
secondary school
Government
school market
share (2015)*
2011
2016
2020
2026
Albert Park College
35.9
516
983
1,155
43.3
1,006
1,000
39.6
905
39.3
Footscray City
College
Mount Alexander
Year 7–12 College
Princes Hill
Secondary College
University High
School
Summary
2031
Change
(#) (2011
–31)
Change
(%) (2011–
31)
1,502
1,766
1,250
242.23
1,236
1,374
1,454
448
44.53
918
1,005
1,108
1,212
307
33.94
408
417
481
564
631
223
54.70
15.5
700
867
1,051
1,399
1,799
1,099
157.03
34.7
3,535
4,185
4,928
5,948
6,862
3,327
94.13
*Numbers are forecasts and approximate only Source: DET, November 2015; Spatial Vision, November 2015
Secondary school demand from the Docklands
community
The suburb of Docklands currently falls within two secondary school DRUs: University High
School and Albert Park College. It is therefore difficult to assess the level of demand generated
from Docklands through the use of DRU level data.
Therefore, additional demographic analysis has been undertaken to focus solely on the area of
Docklands. Between 2011 and 2015 there was an increase of 45 secondary-school-aged
students (from 97 to 142) in Docklands. Between 2015 and 2035, the total number of
secondary-school-aged children is expected to increase by over 500 students (total of 691 in
2035). The government market share at 2015 for Docklands was 33.8 per cent. This proportion
is similar to the study area average of 34.7 per cent. If a new secondary school was to be built
for Docklands, it would be expected that the market share would increase. Table 8 calculates
demand for government secondary school enrolments based on both the current (2015) suburb
market share and the study area government market share average.
Table 8 illustrates that by applying the 2015 suburb market share and the study area average,
there is likely to be demand for approximately 200 government secondary school enrolment
places for Docklands.
If a new secondary school is recommended in Docklands a more robust analysis of future
market share will need to be undertaken.
Table 8: Docklands secondary school demand forecasts between 2011 and 2035
Government
school market
share (2015)
Government secondary school demand*
2011
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
Docklands suburb government market share
33.8
43
48
78
142
180
234
Secondary study area government market
share average
34.7
n/a
n/a
80
146
185
240
*Numbers are forecasts and approximate only. Source: DET, January 2016
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Trends in access
An analysis of access trends was undertaken to understand movement patterns within and
outside the network. The analysis included student address mapping and enrolment forecasts,
as well as consultation findings.
Student address mapping
As with the primary school needs assessment, spatial analysis was conducted for geocoded
student enrolment addresses for 2015. The analysis highlighted that while some schools service
a relatively local enrolment population, there are a number of schools attracting large
proportions of families living outside of the school’s DRU. There are also a number of students
(1,785 students) traveling from outside the study area to access schools within the study area,
particularly Princes Hill Secondary College and University High School. The schools that service
a more local enrolment population include:

Albert Park College (71 per cent of enrolments within the school’s DRU)

Mount Alexander Year 7-12 College (67 per cent of enrolments within the school’s DRU).
Additionally, the analysis illustrated that physical boundaries do not appear to play a significant
role in secondary school access. Analysis of Mount Alexander Year 7–12 College student
addresses illustrated that physical barriers, the CityLink toll road and Mount Alexander Road
have an impact on the enrolment catchment. However, all the other secondary schools
indicated significantly large enrolment catchments from both within and extending beyond the
study area, irrespective of physical barriers.
The analysis also highlighted that there are a number of students not accessing their
designated local school and are traveling to other schools within the study area. For example,
132 students are travelling from the Mount Alexander Year 7–12 College DRU to University
High School. There are also 1,018 students accessing schools outside of the study area.
It is important to note that although Docklands lies within the University High School DRU, this
school has a Zone which limits enrolments and does not extend to Docklands. The school
accepts students residing outside its Zone on specific curriculum grounds. It is unknown what
proportion of students are enrolled according to Zone or curriculum grounds.
Currently University High School and Princes Hill Secondary College appear to be the main
secondary schools supporting Docklands families.
For more detailed data relating to the student address analysis, see Appendix G.
Enrolment forecasts
Comparison of government school demand and enrolment forecasts up to 2020 identified a
significant difference. Government school demand is estimated to be around 1,300 students
higher than projected enrolments. However, when looking at specific DRUs there are a number
of schools expected to experience enrolment demand significantly higher than the local DRU’s
government school demand, as follows:

University High School’s enrolment forecasts are over 600 students more than the local
DRU government secondary school demand.

Princes Hill Secondary College’s enrolment forecasts are over 400 students more than the
local DRU government secondary school demand.
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
Albert Park College’s enrolment forecasts are approximately 300 students more than the
local DRU government secondary school demand.
Analysis of enrolment forecasts reflects the student address mapping analysis which illustrated
that the above schools attract significant numbers of students from outside the local DRU.
See Appendix H for more detailed enrolment forecasts.
Capacity analysis
As illustrated in in Table 9 and Figure 5, forecast population growth for this study area is
significant. When considering existing school capacity and government school demand, there is
likely to be a total deficit of approximately 2,100 government secondary school enrolments
across the study area by 2031. The DRUs likely to experience the most significant capacity
concerns include:

Mount Alexander Year 7–12 Secondary College (deficit of approximately 700 enrolments)

Albert Park College (deficit of approximately 900 enrolments)

University High School (deficit of approximately 400 enrolments).
Appendix J provides detailed individual government school reports for the schools identified
above, illustrating the comparison between demand, enrolments and capacity between 2011
and 2031.
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Table 9: DRU government school demand capacity assessment
Government school demand*
Remaining capacity
Government
secondary school
2011
2016
2020
2026
2031
Existing
capacity
2011
2016
2020
2026
2031
Albert Park College
516
983
1,155
1,502
1,766
900
384
-83
-255
-602
-866
1,006
1,000
1,236
1,374
1,454
1,200
194
200
-36
-174
-254
905
918
1,005
1,108
1,212
500
-405
-418
-505
-608
-712
408
417
481
564
631
900
492
483
419
336
269
700
867
1,051
1,399
1,799
1,400
700
533
349
1
-399
3,535
4,185
4,928
5,948
6,862
4,900
1365
715
-28
-1,048
-1,962
Footscray City
College
Mount Alexander
Year 7–12 College
Princes Hill
Secondary College
University High
School
Summary
*Numbers are forecasts and approximate only, Source: DET, November 2015; Spatial Vision, November 2015
Figure 5: Secondary school demand, enrolment and capacity overview
Source: DET, November 2015; Spatial Vision November 2015
Please note: school capacity is not fixed and it is Department policy that additional demand is
managed with relocatable classrooms in the short term where necessary.
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5.3 Specialist schools
Forecasted specialist school demand has been calculated based on the following two key
assumptions provided by the Department:

on average, 3.7 per cent of school aged children will have some form of disability

on average, 45 per cent of school aged children with disabilities will enrol in a government
specialist school.
Based on these assumptions it is anticipated that by 2031 there will be demand across the
study area for:

approximately 200 government specialist school enrolments for primary school aged
children

approximately 400 government specialist school enrolments for secondary school aged
children.
Compared to mainstream primary and secondary schools, this analysis does not consider
specialist school provision in a holistic sense, as these schools typically draw school-aged
children from a much wider network depending on the education programs offered at each
special school. To examine demand for government specialist school facilities in detail, a
specific study area would need to be developed and demand examined on a school by school
basis.
See Appendix K for calculations for specialist school demand undertaken for this study.
5.4 Engagement findings relating to trends in
demand and access
Throughout the engagement process, local community representatives, local school principals
and local government participants raised the following issues:
Transport and access:
All stakeholder groups identified:

School planning needs to recognise physical and transport access barriers. The existing
pedestrian connections in some areas of Docklands are poor. Wind also impacts pedestrian
movements.

Schools are important for the general development of communities and the socialisation
and language development of children. This is particularly important in inner city areas
where there are high proportions of newly arrived communities.

A number of community members identified that there is limited bicycle and pedestrian
access to existing schools with families therefore required to drive to school.

The application of school zoning means that families in the Docklands are not necessarily
able to access their closest school.
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SCHOOL PROVISION REVIEW FOR DOCKLANDS, FINAL REPORT

Some families are choosing to access private education because they perceive government
schools in the area as unsuitable to meet their needs.
Population change
All stakeholder groups identified:

There are significant urban renewal areas identified within the inner city. The future
population is unknown but likely to be primarily higher density. The Arden-Macaulay
development precinct is the next development area and will increase demand for primary
and secondary schools, particularly in North Melbourne and surrounds.

There is potential for improved access to schools to encourage different types of residential
development, as well as to respond to development growth. For example, if a school is built,
developers are likely to build more three bedroom dwellings.

Issues relating to housing affordability have resulted in more families staying in the inner
city and more families living in high-rise developments.

Some families living in outer areas and working in the city are choosing to enrol their
children in schools in the inner city, therefore impacting on demand for some schools.

The inner city is often an attractive destination for newly arrived communities and 457 Visa
recipients. Settlement patterns impact on local communities and demand for schooling.
Demand fluctuates when larger families arrive at, or leave a school.

An interim approach is required to provide Docklands families with access to schools given
that inner city areas are becoming more popular with young families. Further consideration
should be given to a potential role for the Docklands Library as an interim campus or pickup
point.
Perceptions and reputations
All stakeholder groups identified:

Demand pressures vary across the network. There is strong demand for some existing
schools in inner Melbourne, while other schools have low enrolment demand due to poor
reputation or public perception.

Some schools are considered to be more desirable than others. Once there is a particular
perception associated with a school, it is very difficult to change and it can often take time
for the reputation to be accurate.
5.5 Engagement findings to be considered in stage
two
There were a number of issues raised through the stage one consultation relating to the second
stage of the project, including options to improve provision for the Docklands community, criteria
for assessing options, and defining the study area for stage two.
All additional engagement findings will be included and explored further in stage two. They
include the following:
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
Participants felt that Docklands is currently lacking a ‘sense of community’. There should be
an emphasis on the role that a local school can play in community building by providing
population diversity by retaining and supporting young families living in the area.

A new school in Docklands has the potential to create a heart for the community and
provide the experience of going to a local school. Currently families in Docklands are
dispersed across a range of schools outside of Docklands which impacts their ability to
connect with their local community.

The quality of school grounds and facilities are important as schools provide valuable public
open space and recreational resources for children living in higher density developments.

Key factors families consider when choosing a school are:

quality of the school facilities and curriculum

location

distance

access to high quality play areas

quality staff, teachers and principals

schools that are inclusive of all needs and culture.

Council’s strategic plan for Docklands includes facilitating the delivery of a range of
transport options to improve access and better links to surrounding suburbs. School
provision in Docklands needs a strong partnership between state and local government and
be linked to the City of Melbourne’s Docklands Strategy.

Development of options needs to consider short, medium and long term options to ensure
equitable access and learning outcomes for students living on Docklands.

Short and medium-term options should include strategies to encourage increase in
enrolments to existing schools.

Council supports any new school developed in the study area to be located, designed and
operated in collaboration with Council and local residents to support social cohesion of the
Docklands neighbourhood.

Council supports the Department’s policy of maximising integration and shared use of
community services and facilities through co-location and collaboration, to ensure
integration, and maximise the use of the natural, built, social, civic and cultural environment.
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SCHOOL PROVISION REVIEW FOR DOCKLANDS, FINAL REPORT
6 Conclusions
The analysis in stage one indicates that by 2031, there will be insufficient capacity within the
study areas surrounding the Docklands to accommodate projected government primary and
secondary school demand.
The study areas currently have capacity to provide for local DRU demand, but in some areas
they are at or near capacity. In the short term, it is expected that some of the likely future
demand will be addressed by the two schools committed to in South Melbourne and expanded
capacity at existing schools.
There is unequal distribution and provision across the study areas as a result of the locations of
schools and their accessibility for students.
It is clear from the analysis of student enrolment data and community consultation that a range
of current issues exist that have limited the effectiveness of the study areas to meet current and
future needs. Issues regarding accessibility and proximity of surrounding schools are a key
concern of the Docklands community.
Primary schools
The study area is expected to have a shortfall of around 4,800 primary school enrolment places
by 2031.
The DRUs likely to experience the most significant demand pressures are:

North Melbourne Primary School DRU: Expected shortfall of approximately 1,500
enrolment places as a result of significant population growth. North Melbourne Primary
School has enrolment forecasts beyond the local DRU government primary school demand
indicating that it is a school of choice and draws families from outside its local DRU.

Albert Park Primary School DRU: Projected shortfall of approximately 1,500 enrolment
places. This school also attracts a large number of children from outside its local DRU
indicating that it is also a school of choice.

Port Melbourne Primary School DRU: Expected shortfall of 600 enrolment places as a
result of significant population growth. Port Melbourne Primary School has enrolment
forecasts significantly higher than the local DRU government primary school demand as it
draws a significant number of students from the Albert Park DRU.
All three of these schools currently rely on relocatable classrooms to achieve total capacity.
Irrespective of enrolment forecasts, these schools will require relocatable classrooms to meet
local DRU demand.
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Secondary schools
The study area is expected to have a shortfall of approximately 2,000 government secondary
school enrolment places in 2031.
The DRUs likely to experience the most significant demand pressures are:

University High School DRU: Expected shortfall of approximately 400 enrolment places.
The analysis indicates that this is a school of choice that draws a significant number of
families from outside its local DRU, and outside of the study area. University High School
has a Zone which limits enrolments. Docklands forms part of the DRU, but sits outside the
Zone. Families in Docklands are able to attend University High School however, increasing
enrolment pressure generated by significant population growth expected in this DRU may
limit future accessibility.

Albert Park College DRU: Expected shortfall of approximately 900 enrolment places.
Comparatively this school services a relatively local catchment and the data analysis
indicates that this school does not draw a significant number of students from the
Docklands area.
Other key issues were also identified through the consultation process:
The engagement process identified the following key issues:

Transport access was highlighted as a significant issue throughout the consultation
undertaken for this study. The Docklands/North Melbourne area has been identified as
having significant access issues, including limited public transport connections to nearby
schools, high car reliance for existing families accessing surrounding schools and significant
physical barriers.

School reputations, both negative and positive, impact on how the network operates.
Reputations are increasing enrolment pressure on popular schools and impacting the
viability of schools experiencing a negative perception.

The number of relocatable classrooms used to achieve current capacity within this network
is a concern for families, particularly with regard to the flow-on impacts, such as the
provision of open space on school sites and the quality of education facilities.
Considerations for stage two
The following considerations have been identified for stage two:

Develop short, medium and long-term options to identify when, where and how additional
needs should be met in the future. This will include a review of all sites previously identified
in or surrounding Docklands.

Consider interim options to provide access to primary and secondary education for
Docklands families. In the first instance, the Department manages capacity issues using
relocatable classrooms and additional permanent facilities on existing school sites.

Undertake further analysis of transport and access to better understand how people move
through and around an area. This should consider the accessibility of existing and future
school provision by different modes of transport including cycling, walking, driving and
public transport.

Reassess the study area based on the outcomes of the access analysis.
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SCHOOL PROVISION REVIEW FOR DOCKLANDS, FINAL REPORT

Consider how the schools currently accommodating Docklands families will be impacted by
any new provision.

Ensure that options address issues and concerns raised by the community during
consultation for stage one, including:
33

issues relating to transport and access

factors influencing choice and reputation

support for schools that are inclusive of students with different abilities and
supportive of the needs of families from different socio-economic and cultural
backgrounds

the impacts of non-resident worker populations

the use of relocatable classrooms on existing school sites.
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Appendices
Appendix A: Stage one project methodology
1. Background review including history surrounding the review, identification of
preliminary issues and opportunities, and identification of project stakeholders.
2. Determined the approach to
understanding need including use and
availability of data, and approach to
community engagement.
3. Develop preliminary study areas for
the purpose of undertaking current and
future demographic analysis, identifying
demand hotspots and gaps in provision.
Stakeholder and community engagement
4. Community workshop to seek
feedback on the approach and help
develop a rigorous process for
determining school provision needs, as
well as share information and explore
local issues and perspectives.
5. Stakeholder meetings to undertake
focused discussions with key external
stakeholders to identify key issues and
opportunities relating to the study area.
Stakeholders included local councils,
schools and agencies.
Refinement of study area and approach to determining need
6. Data analysis following
feedback on the study area
and analysis approach, the
study area was refined for
data analysis.
7. Community Reference Group (CRG) was formed
and included a diverse mix of stakeholder
representatives. The CRG was a conduit for
information between the community and the
Department and its consultants, and provided
feedback on the project outcomes.
Reporting
8. School provision needs
assessment report - following
completion of the data analysis and
consultation a Draft report was prepared
for circulation to the CRG and Internal
Steering Group.
9. Feedback from Community
Reference Group and Internal
Steering Group - included meeting with
the CRG and Internal Steering Group
and seek feedback on the Draft report).
10 Stage one report for presentation to the Minister for Education (following
feedback from the CRG and Internal Steering Group).
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Appendix B: Land use map
The map below illustrates land uses in the secondary school study area.
Source: Spatial Vision, November 2015
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Appendix C: Forecast population growth for primary
and secondary school aged children
Primary school aged population change between 2011 and 2031 (in real numbers)
Source: Spatial Vision, November 2015
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Secondary school aged population change between 2011 and 2031 (real numbers)
Source: Spatial Vision, November 2015
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Appendix D: SEIFA Index of Disadvantage
The following map illustrates the SEIFA Index of Disadvantage in the secondary school study
area.
Source: Spatial Vision, November 2015
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Appendix E: Total primary and secondary school
aged demand
Total primary school age demand*
3,513
2,044
Change
(#) (2011–
31)
2,422
1,747
Change
(%) (2011–
31)
222.00
588.22
733
729
81
12.50
574
681
819
426
108.40
748
806
883
1,007
375
59.34
568
983
1,597
2,231
2,641
2,073
364.96
638
740
935
1,216
1,799
1,161
181.97
4,267
5,768
7,789
10,278
12,552
8,285
194.16
Change
(%) (2011–
31)
59.22
41.06
DRU
2011
2016
2021
2026
2031
Albert Park Primary School
Carlton Gardens Primary
School
Debney Meadows Primary
School
Footscray City Primary
School
Kensington Primary
School
North Melbourne Primary
School
Port Melbourne Primary
School
Total
1,091
297
1,556
665
2,139
1,070
2,943
1,591
648
633
668
393
443
632
*Numbers are forecasts and approximate only
Source: DET, November 2015; Spatial Vision, November 2015
Total secondary school age demand*
DRU
Albert Park College
Footscray City College
Mount Alexander Year 7–
12 College
Princes Hill Secondary
College
University High School
Total
1,952
2,738
3,217
4,185
4,919
2,109
2,170
2,310
2,318
2,855
2,538
3,174
2,798
3,358
3,061
Change
(#) (2011–
31)
1,249
891
752
1,061
1,224
1,436
1,606
854
113.56
2,895
5,596
6,780
9,024
11,608
8,713
300.97
9,878
1,952
14,023
2,738
16,614
3,217
20,617
4,185
24,552
4,919
14,674
2,967
148.55
152.00
*Numbers are forecasts and approximate only
Source: DET, November 2015; Spatial Vision, November 2015
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Appendix F: Market share analysis
Several different approaches could have been undertaken to establish a market share value.
One method would have considered the annual rate of change of the market share over the five
years and applied that as a consistent rate of change in the market share to 2031. However,
due to market share values differing greatly between different schools, for example, in the order
of around an eight per cent decrease in market share annually, this figure would not yield
practical results.
Government primary school market share calculations
DRU
2011
Government market share*
2012
2013
2014
2015
Change
(2011–15)
Albert Park Primary School
56.6
55.9
60.9
58.2
58.2
1.6
Change
(%)
(2011–15)
2.8
Carlton Gardens Primary School
66.3
62.4
59.7
57.7
58.2
-8.1
-12.2
Debney Meadows Primary School
60.3
57.2
58.2
58.5
59.7
-0.6
-1.0
Footscray City Primary School
73.0
73.6
66.8
66.9
69.2
-3.8
-5.2
Kensington Primary School
53.2
59.3
59.2
59.9
57.5
4.3
8.1
North Melbourne Primary School
81.7
84.5
81.3
83.8
82.0
0.3
0.4
Port Melbourne Primary School
59.7
62.6
66.3
71.5
72.4
12.7
21.3
Total
64.4
65.1
64.6
65.2
65.3
0.9
1.4
*Numbers are forecasts and approximate only
Source: DET, November 2015; Spatial Vision, November 2015
Government secondary school market share calculations
Government market share*
Change
(2011–15)
Change (%)
(2011–15)
DRU
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
Albert Park College
26.4
29.5
26.6
29.4
35.9
9.5
36.0
Footscray City College
47.7
44.3
42.2
42.0
43.3
-4.4
-9.2
Mount Alexander Year 7–12
College
Princes Hill Secondary College
41.7
38.1
39.0
39.9
39.6
-2.1
-5.0
54.3
44.6
38.1
38.2
39.3
-15.0
-27.6
University High School
24.2
21.8
19.1
16.2
15.5
-8.7
-36.0
Total
38.9
35.7
33.0
33.1
34.7
-4.1
-10.7
*Numbers are forecasts and approximate only
Source: DET, November 2015; Spatial Vision, November 2015
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Appendix G: Student address analysis
A spatial analysis was conducted for geocoded student addresses for 2015 3. The analysis
considered the schools that students attend as well as the DRU within which they reside. The
distance a student lives (as the crow flies) from the school they attend was also calculated.
The following tables illustrate the results of the student address analysis.
Primary school student address analysis
Current government primary school enrolments
Government primary school
Current
enrolments
(February 2015)
% of Enrolments
within school's
DRU
Median
distance from
school (km)
Albert Park Primary School
500
89.60
0.75
Carlton Gardens Primary School
337
62.31
1.60
Debney Meadows Primary School
88
81.82
0.54
Footscray City Primary School
252
52.17
1.08
Kensington Primary School
469
68.23
1.51
North Melbourne Primary School
646
83.90
1.02
712
66.57
1.29
3,004
73.14
1.17
Port Melbourne Primary School
Total
Source: DET, November 2015; Spatial Vision, November 2015
3
Only successfully geocoded addresses were used in the analysis, whereby a student address was assigned latitude
and longitude coordinates provided by the Department.
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Demand Reporting Unit (DRU) of residence versus school DRU matrix
Debney Meadows Primary School
Footscray City Primary School
Kensington Primary School
North Melbourne Primary School
Port Melbourne Primary School
Outside study area
Grand total
448
0
0
0
0
0
20
32
500
Carlton Gardens Primary School
3
210
3
0
0
55
0
66
337
Debney Meadows Primary School
0
0
72
0
0
4
0
12
88
Footscray City Primary School
0
0
0
132
2
3
2
114
253
Kensington Primary School
2
0
56
5
320
8
1
77
469
Government Primary School
Albert Park Primary School
Albert Park Primary School
Carlton Gardens Primary School
Demand reporting unit (DRUs)
0
19
44
0
5
542
0
36
646
Port Melbourne Primary School
190
13
0
2
0
10
474
23
712
Grand total
643
242
175
139
327
622
497
360
3,005
North Melbourne Primary School
Source: DET, November 2015; Spatial Vision, November 2015
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SCHOOL PROVISION REVIEW FOR DOCKLANDS, FINAL REPORT
Secondary school student address analysis
Current government secondary school enrolments
Current
enrolments
(February 2015)
% of Enrolments
within school's
DRU
Median
distance from
school (km)
Albert Park College
891
71.04
2.96
Footscray City College
916
39.83
5.52
Mount Alexander Year 7–12 College
304
67.43
2.94
Government primary school
Princes Hill Secondary College
869
25.20
3.25
University High School
1,401
43.01
5.89
Summary
4,381
46.33
4.47
Source: DET, November 2015; Spatial Vision, November 2015
DRU of residence versus school DRU matrix
Outside
Grand total
1
1
6
237
891
333
69
0
3
430
836
3
4
205
3
30
59
304
1
4
89
219
16
540
869
University High School
21
29
132
98
603
519
1,402
Grand total
659
383
496
321
658
1,785
4,302
Footscray City College
Mount Alexander Year 7–
12 College
Princes Hill Secondary
College
Mount Alexander Year 7–12
College
13
1
Albert Park College
Footscray City College
633
Albert Park College
University High School
Demand Reporting Units (DRUs)
Princes Hill Secondary College
Government secondary
school
Source: DET, November 2015; Spatial Vision, November 2015
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Appendix H: Enrolment demand analysis
Projected government primary school enrolment capacity assessment
Projected enrolments*
Government primary school
2011
2016
2020
Albert Park Primary School
406
521
550
Carlton Gardens Primary School
196
368
Debney Meadows Primary School
94
80
293.8
Kensington Primary School
Remaining capacity
Existing
capacity
2011
2016
2020
500
94
-21
-50
485
350
154
-18
-135
82
350
256
270
268
320
691
450
156
130
-241
353
489
514
500
147
11
-14
North Melbourne Primary School
517
698
678
650
133
-48
-28
Port Melbourne Primary School
444
770
889
725
281
-45
-164
2,304
3,246
3,889
3,525
1221
279
-364
Footscray City Primary School
Summary
*Numbers are forecasts and approximate only
Source: DET, November 2015; Spatial Vision, November 2015
Projected government secondary school enrolment capacity assessment
Government secondary school
Projected enrolments*
2011
2016
2020
Albert Park College
891
1,108
1,477
Footscray City College
916
890
Mount Alexander 7-12 College
304
Princes Hill Secondary College
Existing
capacity
Remaining capacity
2011
2016
2020
900
0
-208
-577
1,154
1,200
284
310
46
308
302
500
196
192
198
869
885
891
900
31
15
9
University High School
1,401
1,428
1,619
1,400
-1
-28
-219
Total
4,381
4,619
5,443
4,900
369
131
-693
*Numbers are forecasts and approximate only
Source: DET, November 2015; Spatial Vision, November 2015
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Appendix I: Individual government primary school
reports
Albert Park Primary School – individual school report
Note: Forecasts are approximate only
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Debney Meadows Primary School – individual school report
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North Melbourne Primary School – individual school report
Note: Forecasts are approximate only
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Carlton Gardens Primary School – individual school report
Note: Forecasts are approximate only
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Footscray City Primary School – individual school report
Note: Forecasts are approximate only
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Kensington Primary School – individual school report
Note: Forecasts are approximate only
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Port Melbourne Primary School – individual school report
Note: Forecasts are approximate only
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Appendix J: Individual government secondary
school reports
Albert Park College – individual school report
Note:
Forecas
ts
are
approxi
mate only
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Footscray City College – individual school report
Note: Forecasts are approximate only
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Mount Alexander 7-12 College – individual school report
Note: Forecasts are approximate only
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Princess Hill Secondary College – individual school report
Note: Forecasts are approximate only
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University High School – individual school report
Note: Forecasts are approximate only
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Appendix K: Specialist school demand calculations
Specialist school demand analysis for primary school aged children
Docklands primary study
area*
2011
2016
2021
2026
2031
Change
(#) (2011–
31)
Change (%)
(2011–31)
Primary school aged demand
4,267
5,768
7,789
10,278
12,552
8,285
194.16
158
213
288
380
464
307
194.16
71
96
130
171
209
138
194.16
Primary school aged
population disabilities
Government specialist school
demand from 5–11 years
*Numbers are forecasts and approximate only
Source: DET, November 2015; Spatial Vision, November 2015
Specialist school demand analysis for secondary school aged children
Docklands secondary study
area*
2011
2016
2021
2026
2031
Change
(#) (2011–
31)
Change (%)
(2011–31)
Secondary school aged demand
9,878
14,023
16,614
20,617
24,552
14,674
148.55
365
519
615
763
908
543
148.55
164
233
277
343
409
244
148.55
Secondary school aged
population with disability
Government specialist school
demand from 12–17 years
*Numbers are forecasts and approximate only
Source: DET, November 2015; Spatial Vision, November 2015
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