Dr. Ton Engbersen
May, 2013
Computing Power, processing and memory for
Intelligent language and Situation understanding
Cognitive Systems & the New Era of Computing
Dr. Ton Engbersen
Scientific Director ASTRON & IBM Center for Exascale Technology,
Mgr. Energy Management
Member IBM Academy of Technology – Past VP Europe
IBM Zurich Research Laboratory – Switzerland.
© 2013 IBM Corporation
IBM Research Globalization
Dublin
China
Zurich
Almaden
Austin
Watson
Haifa
Tokyo
India
Semiconductors
Processors
Africa
Brazil
Australia
IBM Research Labs
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IBM Research Collaborations
DOME
China
Dublin
New York
Almaden
Almaden
Austin
Austin
Zurich
Watson
China
Haifa
Haifa
India
India
Tokyo
Africa
Brazil
Australia
IBM Research Labs
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SKA Array & Receptor Technologies
250 Dense Aperture Arrays
2500 Dishes
3-Core
Central
Region
250 Sparse Aperture Arrays
Artists’ Renditions from Swinburne Astronomy
Productions
© 2013 IBM Corporation
© 2013 IBM Corporation
Big Data
SKA
Exa
Up to
10,000
Times
larger
Peta
Data at Rest
Data Scale
Tera
Giga
Mega
Traditional Data
Warehouse and
Business Intelligence
Up to 10,000
times faster
Data in Motion
Kilo
yr
mo
wk
Occasional
day
hr
min
sec
Frequent
Decision Frequency
…
ms
µs
Real-time
© 2013 IBM Corporation
SKA as an example
25..250
PByte/day
150 Tbit/s
(all stations)
RCU Board
RSP Board
A/D
Filter
Σ
Filter
Σ
Beamformer
WAN
Filter
Σ
Filter
Σ
Backplane
& RF Shield
Output
control
Distributed
Beamforming
Station GbE switch (24 ports)
GbE
RSP board 24
14 EByte/day
(all antennas)
WAN fibre
connections
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25 … 250 PB/day
Top 500: Sum=123 PFlops.
2GFlops/watt.
100x Flops of Sum!
~ 7GWh
1… 3 PB/Day
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System Analysis
-P1: Algorithms & Machines
Computing
- P4: Microservers
- P5: Accelerators
Transport
- P3: Nanophotonics
- P7: RT-Communications
- P6: Compressive
Sampling
Storage
- P2: Access Patterns
P8: Project Lead
© 2013 IBM Corporation
Exa
Up to
10,000
Times
larger
Peta
Data at Rest
Data Scale
Tera
Giga
Mega
Traditional Data
Warehouse and
Business Intelligence
Up to 10,000
times faster
Data in Motion
Kilo
yr
mo
wk
Occasional
day
hr
min
sec
Frequent
Decision Frequency
…
ms
µs
Real-time
© 2013 IBM Corporation
© 2013 IBM Corporation
© 2013 IBM Corporation
Cognitive Computing
The Growth of Uncertain Data Presents a Challenge to Today’s
Computers:
Sensors
& Devices
9000
Volume in Exabytes
Percentage of
uncertain data
80
7000
60
6000
Social
Media
5000
4000
40
You are here
VoIP
20
3000
Percent of uncertain data
8000
100
Enterprise
Data
0
2010
14
2015
© 2013 IBM Corporation
Cognitive Computing
Big Data is Ushering in a New Era of Computing
Volume
Terabytes to
exabytes of
existing data
to process
15
Velocity
Streaming data,
milliseconds to
seconds to
respond
Variety
Structured,
unstructured,
text and
multimedia
Veracity
Uncertainty from
inconsistency,
ambiguities, etc.
© 2013 IBM Corporation
Cognitive Computing
Eras of Computing
Tabulating Systems
16
Programmable Systems
Sorting and counting
Transaction processing
Sales
Database marketing
Inventory
e-Commerce
Accounting/
general ledger
Near real-time
decision support
Cognitive Systems
Cog.ni.tive: of or
pertaining to the
mental processes of
perception, memory,
judgment, learning,
and reasoning.
© 2013 IBM Corporation
Cognitive Computing
On February 14, 2011, IBM Watson changed history . . .
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© 2013 IBM Corporation
Cognitive Computing
The New Era of Computing – Cognitive Systems
Society
(Natural Interfaces)
Active Learning
Verification Engines
(e.g. Simulations)
Nature
Institutions
Training and Learning Engines
To Build Models and Define Insight
Archives
Policy Engine
Business, Legal
and Ethical Rules
Hypothesis Engines
To Understand and Plan Actions
Outcome Engine
Actuation and Validation
18
© 2013 IBM Corporation
Cognitive Computing
Watson vs. Brain: Big Efficiency Gap Calls for Technology
Innovation
45 nm
System Power (W)
15 to 11 nm
5 nm
Watson Power Scaling
with Moore’s Law
> 1,000x
Efficiency
Gap*
Human Brain
*brain does far more than scaled Watson
Year
19
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Cognitive Computing
Cognitive
Computing
Nanotechnology
20
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Cognitive Computing
Brain can Integrate and Co-ordinate Multiple Sensory, Motor
Modalities
21
© 2013 IBM Corporation
Cognitive Computing
Computers and the Brain: Different & Complementary
Separates memory and processor Integrates memory and processor
Sequential, centralized processing Parallel, distributed processing
Ever increasing clock rates, high active power Event-driven, low active power
Huge passive power Does “nothing” better, low passive power
Programmed system, hard-wired, fault-prone Learning system, reconfigurable, fault-tolerant
Algorithms and analytics Substrate and pattern recognition
22
© 2013 IBM Corporation
Cognitive Computing
“Mimicking” the Brain:
"Spikes“ as Computational
Primitives
0
Threshold
W_0*w(0)
1
W_1*w(1)
∑
0/1
W_i*w(i)
i
W_n*w(n)
n
23
© 2013 IBM Corporation
Cognitive Computing
First cognitive computing
chips
developed at IBM Research – Almaden
Learn more at ibm.com/synapse
24
© 2013 IBM Corporation
Cognitive Computing
Demonstrated Two Neurosynaptic Cores in 45nm CMOS-SOI
Synapses
Scheduler
Neurons
(a)
256 neurons, 64K synapses, 1MHz
Learning on board
(b)
256 neurons, 256K synapses,
asynchronous, 45 pJ/spike
~ 1000x Human Brain
25
© 2013 IBM Corporation
Cognitive Computing
26
© 2013 IBM Corporation
Cognitive Computing
IBM Watson brings together a set of transformational technologies to
drive optimized outcomes
2
1 Understands
natural
language and
human speech
Generates and
evaluates
hypothesis for
better outcomes
99%
60%
10%
3 Adapts and
Learns from user
selections and
responses
27
IBM Watson represents a new class of cognitive
solutions built on a massively parallel probabilistic
evidence-based architecture
© 2013 IBM Corporation
Cognitive Computing
Case Study: A Cognitive System Applied to
Medical Diagnosis
Memorial Sloan Kettering Cancer Center
Challenge
Rising caseloads: 1.6 million new cancer cases this
year in the US alone*
Complexity of cancer: a disease with hundreds of
sub-types
Non-specialists cannot keep up with rapidly
changing information
Solution
Combine IBM Watson with Sloan Kettering’s clinical
knowledge, molecular and genomic data and vast
repository of cancer case histories, along with
updated guidelines and published research
Share evidenced-based options to oncologists
anywhere to help them decide how best to care for
an individual patient
28
*American Cancer Society, Cancer Facts and Figures 2012
Watson just keeps
getting smarter
First applications for lung,
breast and prostate cancers
under development.
Pilots to begin with a select
group of oncologists by
year-end
© 2013 IBM Corporation
Cognitive Computing
Device and Technology Roadmap
Bio-Inspired
Computation
Computing Without Programming
Quantum Devices
& Circuits
Neuromorphic
Devices &Circuits
Neuromorphic &
Quantum Devices
Increasing Efficiency
50µm
Non-Von Neumann
Architectures
+
Von Neumann
Architectures
Algorithms
InAs
Si
Vddh
ck2b_hi
Computing with Programs:
Fetch Instructions, Decode,
Execute & Repeat.
ck2_hi
Vc=Vddh-Vdd
(constant)
ck2
en
ck2b
ck2b_lo
ck2_lo
Low V
Circuits &
Architecture
Low V
Devices
New Architectures
Leveraging
100’s of Billions of
Low-Voltage Devices
Spintronic
& Magnetic
Existing Architectures
FPGA’s
Reconfigurable
Logic
Nanowires
High-k
Accelerators
Carbon
Electronics
Subsystem Integration
(3D, SCM, Photonics)
Today
29
New Devices,
Architectures &
Computing Paradigms
Time
© 2013 IBM Corporation
Cognitive Computing
Biologically-Inspired Learning Systems
1014
Synapses
30
© 2013 IBM Corporation
Cognitive Computing
Cognitive Systems: The New Tools for the 21st Century
The New IT
Frontier
Cognitive
Systems
“Within ten years a digital
computer will be the world's chess
champion” 1958,
H. A. Simon and Allen Newell
Computer Intelligence
Watson
2011
Deep Blue
1997
System/360
1964
Abacus
circa
3500 BC
Antikythera
Astronomical
Computer
circa 87 BC
Napier’
’s Rods
circa 1600
Counting
Machine
Circa 1820
ENIAC
circa 1945
Calculators
Time
31
© 2013 IBM Corporation
“There is a sense from many places that
whoever figures out how the brain computes will
come up with the next generation of computers,”
says Dr. Thomas Insel, the director of the USA
National Institute of Mental Health.
32
© 2013 IBM Corporation