REGIONAL
DATA REPORT
JAN – MAR
2017 vs. 2016
NORTHEAST Region
Regional Composite
Methodology
•
Categories:
–
–
Avocados
Total produce: Includes avocados
•
Timeframe: YTD Q1 (January – March) 2017
•
Average Selling Price (ASP) is not Advertised Retail Price
–
•
Average selling price = Dollars/Volume (Units) = Average price per unit
Retail data provided by IRI / FreshLook
–
–
HAB's calculation based in part on data reported by Information Resources, Inc. through its
Freshlook Service for the Avocado category for Multi-Outlet (MULO). Multi-outlet reporting
includes an aggregation of the following channels: grocery, mass, club, drug, dollar and military. The
information is believed to be reliable at the time supplied by IRI but is neither all-inclusive nor
guaranteed by IRI. Without limiting the generality of the foregoing, specific data points may vary
considerably from other information sources.
Important Note: IRI / FreshLook periodically restates retail data, therefore this review cannot be
compared or used in conjunction with prior reviews
2
Northeast Region: Highlights - YTD Q1
•
Overview based on the following geography:
–
•
2017 vs. 2016, avocado dollars in Northeast grew +19%, outpacing Total U.S. (+14%) by
+5 points
–
–
–
–
–
•
The Northeast region captures the markets of Albany, Boston, Buffalo, Harrisburg/Scranton,
Hartford/Springfield, New England, New York, Philadelphia, Pittsburgh and Syracuse, plus additional cities
not included in markets
Category dollars outpaced total produce by +19 points
Category volume declined -2%
Category average selling price (ASP) increased +21%, up to $1.38/unit
Large Hass (4225) avocados drove dollar growth, adding +$5.2MM to the category
Large Hass ASP increased +21%, driving higher dollar sales
Lower dollars and units per store per week in Northeast presents opportunity for
growth
–
Northeast averaged $401 and 291 units per store per week through Q1 2017
3
Northeast: YTD Q1 - Avocados vs. Total Produce
Avocados Outpaced Total Produce in Retail Dollar Sales Growth Rate
•
2017 vs. 2016, avocado dollars grew +19%, +19 points ahead
of total produce
•
Northeast held a 19% share of total produce dollars and a
16% share of avocado dollars
4
Northeast: YTD Q1 Avocado Retail Overview
Northeast Avocado Dollars Grew +19% on a 21% Price Increase
•
2017 vs. 2016, Category dollars grew +19%
–
•
Volume declined -2%
2017 vs. 2016, Category average selling
price (ASP) increased +21%, up to
$1.38/unit
5
Northeast vs. Total U.S. - YTD Q1 PLU Comparisons
Northeast Outpaced Total U.S. in Dollar Sales Growth Rate
–
•
Volume declined -2%,
lagging Total U.S. by -8
points
Large Hass (4225)
avocados drove dollar
growth, adding +$5.2MM
to the category
–
•
RETAIL DOLLARS
Avocado dollar sales in
NE increased +19%, +5
points ahead of Total U.S.
(+14%)
Large Hass ASP
increased +21%, driving
their dollar growth rate
Small Hass (4046)
avocados curbed the
volume loss from other
segments
–
Small Hass had the
highest incremental
volume at +2.7MM units
JANUARY - MARCH: 2017 vs 2016
•
Northeast
2015
PLU
Description
2015
2016
4046
Small Hass #60 sizes & smaller
$
1,665,291 $
4,361,188
+161.9%
$
110,968,430 $
136,340,537
4225
Large Hass #40 & #48 sizes
$
50,252,193 $
55,466,107
+10.4%
$
209,968,506 $
219,574,049
+4.6%
4770
X-Large Hass #36 sizes & larger
$
1,351,191 $
1,833,666
+35.7%
$
30,656,568 $
19,875,620
-35.2%
Other
Greenskins, Pinkertons, non-Hass PLUs
$
1,819,438 $
2,721,821
+49.6%
$
9,842,777 $
13,060,943
+32.7%
Organic
All Organic PLUs
$
736,743 $
2,208,274
+199.7%
$
9,903,302 $
12,238,578
+23.6%
Bags
All bagged PLUs
$
15,678,978 $
18,277,190
+16.6%
$
98,746,230 $
136,313,012
+38.0%
TOTAL CATEGORY DOLLARS $
71,503,834 $
84,868,245
+18.7%
$
470,085,813 $
537,402,739
+14.3%
RETAIL UNITS
2016
Total U.S.
Variance
Northeast
PLU
Description
2015
4046
Small Hass #60 sizes & smaller
4225
Large Hass #40 & #48 sizes
4770
X-Large Hass #36 sizes & larger
Other
Greenskins, Pinkertons, non-Hass PLUs
Organic
All Organic PLUs
Bags
All bagged PLUs
TOTAL CATEGORY UNITS
2016
Variance
+22.9%
Total U.S.
Variance
2015
2016
Variance
1,387,373
3,659,888
+163.8%
152,338,907
173,303,688
+13.8%
42,823,480
39,012,305
-8.9%
180,957,110
160,073,533
-11.5%
1,028,504
1,240,754
+20.6%
21,733,335
10,412,593
-52.1%
994,025
1,423,662
+43.2%
4,635,658
6,537,677
+41.0%
377,143
1,309,786
+247.3%
5,627,349
6,485,410
+15.2%
15,867,554
14,851,080
-6.4%
143,575,555
182,079,865
+26.8%
62,478,079
61,497,475
-1.6%
508,867,914
538,892,766
+5.9%
AVERAGE SELLING PRICE (ASP) / UNIT
Northeast
Total U.S.
PLU
Description
2015
2016
Variance
2015
2016
Variance
4046
Small Hass #60 sizes & smaller
$1.20
$1.19
-0.7%
$0.73
$0.79
+8.0%
4225
Large Hass #40 & #48 sizes
$1.17
$1.42
+21.2%
$1.16
$1.37
+18.2%
4770
X-Large Hass #36 sizes & larger
$1.31
$1.48
+12.5%
$1.41
$1.91
+35.3%
Other
Greenskins, Pinkertons, non-Hass PLUs
$1.83
$1.91
+4.5%
$2.12
$2.00
-5.9%
Organic
All Organic PLUs
$1.95
$1.69
-13.7%
$1.76
$1.89
+7.2%
Bags
All bagged PLUs
$0.99
$1.23
+24.5%
$0.69
$0.75
+8.9%
$1.14
$1.38
+20.6%
$0.92
$1.00
+8.0%
CATEGORY ASP ($/Unit)
6
Northeast: YTD Q1 Category Per Store Per Week
Averages
Lower Dollars and Units Per Store Per Week in Northeast Presents Opportunity for Growth
•
Northeast had a dollar
velocity slightly lower than
the national average
–
•
Northeast averaged $401
per store per week
through Q1 2017
Northeast had a volume
velocity lower than the
national average
–
Northeast averaged 291
units per store per week
through Q1 2017
7
Northeast: 2015-Q1 through 2017-Q1
Units vs. ASP
•
•
Retail Units
– The peak quarter was 2016-Q2 at 66MM units when ASP was $1.16/unit
– The lowest quarter was 2016-Q4 at 43MM units when ASP was at $1.53/unit
ASP
– Lowest ASP to date occurred during 2016-Q1 at $1.14/unit
– Highest ASP to date occurred during 2016-Q4 at $1.53/unit
8