Policy Recommendations to Address the Challenges Posed by Small Satellite Proliferation Kate McGinnis, Devin Osting, Kentaro Tanaka, William West Space Policy Institute, George Washington University 1 Table of Contents Executive Summary ____________________________________________ 2 Introduction __________________________________________________ 3 Background of Policy ____________________________________________ 5 Context ____________________________________________ Forces to Address ______________________________________ Current Small Satellite Policies 5 10 __________________________ 11 Current Management Effort ________________________________ 12 Policy Statement ____________________________________________ 13 Policy Arguments ____________________________________________ 17 Formation of Small Satellite Coordination Office within FAA __ 17 Small Satellite Regulation Updates __________________________ 18 Spectrum Allocation Policy Updates __________________________ 19 Investment in Space Situational Awareness ____________________ 20 International Agreements ________________________________ 21 ______________________________________ 22 Bibliography __________________________________________________ 25 Background Materials ______________________________________ 26 __________________________________________________ 29 Summary and Assessment Biographies 2 Executive Summary Small spacecraft represent a growing segment of the satellite market and are the subject of great optimism for reducing the cost of access to space both for commercial and government uses. The CubeSat template is a particularly popular, low-cost innovation that makes use of predefined small size and standard components. However, there are also risks as new companies enter the field and as regulatory efforts attempt to catch up. The objective of this paper is to recommend policies to the Secure World Foundation, a think tank dedicated to promoting the sustainability of the space environment, to suggest to policymakers in the United States. The policy recommendations are meant to encourage the continued development of the small satellite industry while protecting the space environment for present and future users. In the United States, organizations intending to launch satellites must currently navigate a convoluted process, working with multiple government agencies to obtain the required licenses and approvals before launch. This can lead to missed requirements, large fees, and significant delays for companies that do not always have the resources to hire teams of regulatory experts. There are also concerns with industry and government that small satellites are not built and operated at the same standard expected of other satellite operators. CubeSats often lack on-board propulsion systems and their proliferation raises concerns of possible collisions with other spacecraft, as well as concerns regarding radio frequency interference since they are essentially drifting while broadcasting. Because the space environment is an international resource, it is important that the United States, which relies heavily on space-based systems, develop a framework to promote the responsible use of space and encourage continued growth in the satellite industry. The following policy recommendations are intended to balance the dual goals of having sufficient regulation to protect the space environment and of promoting innovation and growth within the industry. First, a small satellite coordination office within the Federal Aviation Administration Office of Commercial Space Transportation should be established. This office would have authority to coordinate the regulations imposed by different government agencies and would be a central resource for small satellite companies to find information on guidelines and regulations. Second, technical and operational regulations to minimize the hazards posed by small satellites during and beyond their operating lifespan should be implemented. Third, spectrum allocation rules should be updated for expedience, consistency, and in preparation of an influx of applications. Fourth, space situational awareness capabilities should be maintained and 3 improved by the United States government. Finally, the United States should promote such policies internationally to protect the global near-Earth space environment. Implementing these policies will help to promote the responsible use of the space environment as well as encourage continued growth in the small satellite industry by making it more straightforward for companies to comply requirements. Because of the current optimism for and well-known risks of small satellite proliferation, now is the best time to coordinate with the satellite industry to develop workable solutions to the potential problems ahead. Working in the present to update satellite policy will help protect the space environment for the future. Introduction As satellite hardware has decreased in size over recent years, it has become possible to construct and operate spacecraft significantly smaller than traditional satellites. As a result of this trend, small satellites have been developed that can fulfill many of the same functions as traditional, larger satellites. Small satellites are relatively cheap, giving smaller organizations such as commercial startups and educational institutions access to operate in space. Their low cost makes it easier to launch and operate satellite constellations, which are networked systems of satellites with a common mission. This last capability is useful in fields where ubiquitous coverage is strongly desired, such as telecommunications and remote sensing. Small satellites have the potential to open outer space to a wide variety of new actors and economic prospects, but it also threatens to overwhelm a traditional policy framework built around smaller numbers of larger satellites. Unlike traditional satellites, most small satellites lack propellant or the ability to maneuver. Risk of creating space debris is created when small satellites are launched into low Earth orbital trajectories that can take longer than 25 years to decay. Small satellites are commonly built from relatively lowcost commercial off-the-shelf parts that are not suited to survive long-term in the harsh environment of space, increasing the likelihood of breakup on orbit. Finally, the low cost of small satellites attracts new entrants in space, which adds significantly to physical congestion in low Earth orbit (LEO) and to the strain on the finite resource of radio frequency spectrum. This paper’s goal is to outline policy recommendations to the Secure World Foundation that support the development of relevant domestic policy and encourage international norms for responsible operational standards for small satellites. The policies are intended to balance the government interest of protecting the space environment and private sector 4 interests in conducting activities in space, and to facilitate cooperation and consistency between relevant rule-making agencies. To that end, the paper proposes the following policies: The establishment of an overarching small satellite coordination office within the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) Office of Commercial Space Transportation, which would be responsible for coordinating between the FAA, the Federal Communications Commission (FCC) and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), to ensure the consistency of small satellite regulations as well as their application. The creation of regulations governing small satellite design and operations, to be applied by the FAA, the FCC and NOAA, before granting the small satellite operators license to launch, to utilize radio frequency spectrum, and to conduction Earth observation tasks. The updating of FCC policy regarding spectrum allocation for small satellites in low-Earth orbit to restrict the number of amateur band licenses given and to prepare for a much higher volume of commercial small satellite spectrum licenses. The stabilization of investment in space situational awareness (SSA) at $1 billion per year through fiscal year 2020. The pursuit of bilateral and multilateral agreements with other countries to mirror these policies, especially those governing small satellite technical and operational requirements. The recommended technical and operational regulations for small satellites are: To require companies to file, and receive approval for, an end-of-life plan with AST for all small satellites. To require the operational lifespan of a small satellite to represent two-thirds or more of its total time on orbit. To prohibit satellites without any ability to maneuver, or otherwise avoid collisions, from operating more than 650 kilometers above the Earth’s surface or within 100 kilometers of the altitude of the International Space Station. To require location-emitting transponders on small satellites. These policies will serve to lower entry barriers to space by streamlining the regulatory process for small satellite operators while helping promote greater safety and the protection of the LEO environment. 5 Background of Policy Context Small satellites are, as their name suggests, unmanned orbital spacecraft significantly less massive than typical satellites. Broadly speaking, a small satellite is any satellite below 500 kilograms; however, small satellites can be classified more specifically according to their size.1 Nanosatellites are small satellites between 1 and 10 kilograms, and are of special interest due to their increasing popularity. CubeSats are satellites that follow a popular, standardized nanosatellite template. The CubeSat was designed in 1999 by Bob Twiggs of Stanford University and Jordi PuigSuari of California Polytechnic State University in order to support research in aeronautics and astronautics. However, the CubeSat format quickly became widely popular beyond universities. 2 The CubeSat design is characterized by its 10-centimeter by 10-centimeter by 10-centimeter dimensions and its mass of approximately 1 kilogram. A single CubeSat unit will have these dimensions, but the popularity of the CubeSat template comes, at least in part, from the ability to design larger small satellites with greater functionality composed of multiple CubeSat units. A satellite is described by the number of units that comprise it; while the maximum number of CubeSats units that may be linked together is somewhat arbitrary, the majority of CubeSats launched are smaller than 10 kilogram. Their small size makes them relatively cheap to construct and to launch; the approximate cost to launch a single CubeSat unit to LEO in 2015 is only $100,000. 1 Elizabeth Buchen, Dominic DePasquale. “2014 Nano/Microsatellite Market Assessment.” SpaceWorks Enterprises, Inc. January 2014. 5. 2 Toni Feder. “Tiny Satellites are Starting to Have a Giant Impact.” Physics Today, October 31, 2014. 6 Figure 1: The Cost to Launch Satellites According to Classification, Mass, and Destination in 2015 (in thousands of dollars)3 CubeSat proliferation (see Figure 2 below) is one of the concerns facing satellite operations. First, the sheer number of CubeSats increases the number of objects on orbit that other satellites must avoid. CubeSats have attracted criticism from people concerned with space debris. CubeSats frequently have little or no maneuvering capability and, due to their small size, can be difficult to track visually; both of these traits aggravate the risk they pose to other satellites. Secondly, CubeSats increase the demand for radio spectrum, which is a limited natural resource. Only a small number of satellites can use it before their designated bands become overcrowded, and increased demand for spectrum will strain its supply. Furthermore, some are concerned that CubeSat operators are not registering their broadcast frequencies, which could lead to interference to satellites in medium Earth orbit (MEO) or geostationary orbit (GEO). 4 Not only might they compete for the same spectrum as these operations, they might also overpower signals to Earth from higher altitude satellites that, thanks to technical improvements, broadcast at lower strengths than in the past.5 3 Spaceflight Industries, “Schedule and Pricing.” Accessed December 1, 2015. Peter de Selding. “U.S. Satellite Group: Simplify Regulatory Procedure, Create New Regime for Smallsats.” Space News, February 3, 2015. 5 Jeff Foust. “Low Earth Orbit Constellations Could Pose Interference Risk to GEO Satellites.” Space News, October 26, 2015. 4 7 Figure 2: Number of CubeSats launched per year between 2005 and 20146 While CubeSats do not in general currently represent an especially large hazard, due to their low mass and the absence of chemical or pressurized explosives onboard, they still represent a substantial hazard to other satellites. They are difficult to track due to their size. They typically lack any propulsion that might allow them to maneuver away from potential collisions. They are prone to deterioration, as they are frequently built from offthe-shelf parts that are not especially well built to endure outer space. The risk of increasing space debris is likely to grow. According to researchers at the University of Southampton, approximately one-third of CubeSats are likely to remain orbiting Earth for a period in excess of 25 years, despite a persistent myth that CubeSats re-enter Earth’s atmosphere after a short time in orbit.7 Figures 3 and 4 show that the persistence of CubeSats in orbital space increasingly has clear implications for the security of space-based assets. These figures are derived from data produced by the Center for Space Standards and Innovation’s (CSSI) “Satellite Orbital Conjunction Reports Assessing Threatening Encounters in Space” (SOCRATES), which calculates conjunction probabilities twice daily (where conjunctions are defined as objects passing within 5 kilometers of one another). 6 Tauri Group. “State of the Satellite Industry Report 2015.” Satellite Industry Association, September 2015. 21. 7 Hugh G. Lewis, et al. “An Assessment of CubeSat Collision Risk.” International Astronautical Congress, 2014. 3. 8 Figure 3: Cumulative number of conjunctions involving CubeSats from 2005 through 20148 Figure 4 below shows the cumulative number of conjunctions over time between 2005 and 2014; to date, there have been approximately 360,000 such events involving CubeSats. It does not show the simple number of conjunctions per year, but the data suggest that the total amount of conjunctions per year is increasing. Projections using a model called “Debris Analysis and Monitoring Architecture to the Geosynchronous Environment” (DAMAGE) suggest that, given current trends, the number of conjunctions involving CubeSats will increase to a total between 16.5 million and 550 million over the next thirty years. 9 Even at the lower bound of those projections, the yearly average number of conjunctions is likely to be approximately 500,000, an amount larger than the cumulative total over the previous decade. CubeSats persist in their orbits longer at higher altitudes due to the reduced effect of atmospheric drag. Further, the difficulty in tracking them visually also increases with altitude. Together, those factors exacerbate a problem of CubeSat orbital persistence: not only do CubeSats pose longer-term concerns as altitude increases, but they also represent simply a more significant hazard with altitude as well. 8 9 Lewis et al, 4 Lewis et al, 10 9 Figure 4: Average number of conjunctions per day of individual CubeSats as a function of perigee altitude10 End-of-life plans for CubeSats frequently rely on uncontrolled reentry into the atmosphere, taking advantage of their often low, relatively quick-decaying orbits. The uncontrolled nature of CubeSat reentries is the result of planning that fails to meet typical requirements for orbital lifetime and for proper debris disposal.11 Having more comprehensive deorbit plans before permission is granted to launch small satellites will help avoid increased debris from poorly planned deorbit strategies. The current 25-year orbital lifetime limit for satellites grew out of NASA research begun in 1977. Even with significant compliance with the 25-year rule, the amount of debris will continue to increase based on estimates done in 2011 (before many large constellations were even proposed). Figure 5 below shows the estimated amount of debris with different levels of 25-year post-mission disposal (PMD) compliance as predicted by the Low Earth orbit-to-Geosynchronous orbit ENvironment Debris model (LEGEND).12 10 Lewis et al, 4 Luca Rossettini. “Op-Ed: Dealing with CubeSat Clutter.” Space News, September 10, 2015. 12 Jer Chyi Liou. “Effectiveness of Satellite Postmission Disposal to Limit Orbital Debris Population Growth in Low Earth Orbit.” ARES Biennial Report 2012 Final; 72-74, January 1, 2014. 11 10 According to estimates from the Inter-Agency Space Debris Coordination Committee in 2011, only about 60% of LEO objects comply with the 25-year rule.13 Figure 5: Predicted number of objects 10-cm and larger LEO according to simulations based on varying levels of compliance with current end-of-life satellite guidelines.14 Forces to Address The major force our policy recommendations are meant to address is the increasing amount of orbital traffic, propelled by the growth and innovation in small satellite usage. The key innovation has been the small size and standardization of the CubeSat design, which has significantly reduced the cost of satellite development. While this technology has not made nanosatellites cheap in an absolute sense, it has helped to lower the cost of entry for satellite usage into the low six-figure range. This low cost is substantially less than standard satellites and has contributed to their recent and increasing popularity with organizations with limited budget flexibility. Among those using CubeSats are Do-ItYourself hobbyists, commercial start-ups, smaller laboratories, universities, civil space 13 Christophe Bonnal. “Requirements for Debris Mitigation.” Presented at IISL-ECSL Space Law Symposium 2014, Vienna, Austria. March 24th, 2014. 14 Liou, 73. 11 agencies, and even K-12 schools. (While projects like CubeSats are typically done at the high school level, elementary and middle school students have also worked to build and launch CubeSats.) 15 Our policy recommendations aim to mitigate the hazards posed by the proliferation of these satellites without unduly harming the innovations they enable. Current Small Satellite Policies In the United States, there are three federal agencies charged with regulating various aspects of authorizing satellite operations. Satellite owners are obliged to approach each agency separately in order to receive licenses. The FAA, within the Department of Transportation, is responsible for licensing the launch and reentry of spacecraft so that they comply with the United States’ international obligations and do not threaten the safety of the public. The FAA’s Office of Commercial Space Transportation (AST) carries out those responsibilities. An insufficient budget and, by extension, insufficient labor for AST may act as a bottleneck and hinder the growth of the commercial space industry,16 including small satellite operators. The FCC, because of its authority over radio spectrum allocation, is responsible for licensing satellites for their on-orbit operations so that they do not interfere with other satellites’ operations. Current FCC regulations recognize the existence and use of small satellites, but these regulations tend to assume that small satellites will be used largely for academic or amateur purposes.17 Amateur spacecraft are only able to use a small part of the radio frequency spectrum for a short duration, and by definition, amateur usage precludes the satellite operator from any financial interests.18 Satellite industry members are increasingly concerned that the FCC’s current regulatory regime does not fit the reality of small satellite constellations, which are frequently commercial, do not always register their broadcast frequencies, and do not always properly follow end-of-life disposal guidelines.19 NOAA, within the Department of Commerce, is responsible for licensing satellites that engage in Earth observation. NOAA has recognized a need to reevaluate its licensing 15 Mike Wall. “Pope Blesses Kid-Built Satellite Bound for Space.” Space.com, December 2, 2015. Sirisha Bandia. “Flat FAA AST Budget Could Slow Growth For Commercial Space Industry.” Commercial Spaceflight Federation, May 1, 2015. 17 Federal Communications Commission. Public Notice. “Guidance on Obtaining Licenses for Small Satellites.” March 15, 2013. 18 47 C.F.R. §97.3 (2014) 19 Peter de Selding. “U.S. Satellite Group: Simplify Regulatory Procedure, Create New Regime for Smallsats.” Space News, February 3, 2015. 16 12 requirements for CubeSats due to the difficulty small satellites face in complying with those requirements, as well as due to the desire not to unduly burden U.S. commercial satellite operators.20 Current Management Efforts The problem of managing space traffic is global, but currently there are no international forums dedicated to the specific problem of monitoring small satellites in orbit. However, there are organizations that examine and work to manage the broader issue of orbital debris and space situational awareness. The UN Committee on the Peaceful Uses of Outer Space (UN COPUOS), the United Nations committee dedicated to promote research and identify potential legal problems in the use of outer space, has issued Space Debris Mitigation Guidelines.21 These guidelines serve as broad principles rather than as specific technical or operational recommendations. The Inter-Agency Space Debris Coordination Committee (IADC) is an intergovernmental forum meant to facilitate the sharing of space debris research and to investigate debris mitigation options. Its membership consists of the larger national space agencies from around the world, including NASA, the Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency, the European Space Agency, Roscosmos, and the China National Space Administration. However, competing security concerns between the United States, Russia, and China may hinder the IADC’s purpose of data-sharing. Furthermore, the IADC’s membership is too narrowly restricted for it to serve as a forum for sharing information on small satellites. Not only are younger and smaller space agencies (such as the UAE’s space agency) not members, but the majority of CubeSats operators are likely to be commercial or academic entities by the end of 2016.22 For commercial satellite users, the Space Data Association (SDA) serves as a datasharing forum for commercial satellite operators. As CubeSats are commercialized, SDA is likely to become increasingly important as a means of maintaining awareness of onorbit small satellites. However, its membership is limited to commercial satellite operators, which prevents it from serving as a forum for other satellite operators (e.g., space agencies). 20 Ram Jakhu and Joseph Pelton. “Small Satellites and Their Regulation.” Springer. 2013. p. 51. United Nations Committee on the Peaceful Uses of Outer Space. “Space Debris Mitigation Guidelines.” 2010. 22 Bunchen and DePasquale, 9 21 13 In the defense sector, the most prominent institution for orbital monitoring and space situational awareness is the Joint Space Operations Center’s (JSpOC) Space Surveillance Network (SSN). The SSN monitors approximately 22,000 objects in space, using a combination of ground-based and space-based sensors.23 In the LEO environment, it is capable of tracking discrete objects as small as 5 centimeters, but it cannot track objects this small in geosynchronous orbit.24 The SSN is limited by the number of sensors it has available and their geographic distribution (at least for earth-based satellites), with the result that it cannot continuously track orbital objects; instead, SSN monitors objects using discrete “spot-checks,” which relies on predictive analyses of where objects are expected to be (and their subsequent confirmation). The use of spot-checks is not conducive to tracking CubeSats, which, due to their size, are difficult to distinguish if more than one are deployed in quick succession. A commonly suggested solution to the issue of coordinating space traffic management is to expand the mandate and jurisdiction of the United Nations’ International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO).25 These proposals, however, do not address ICAO’s the lack of experience, technical expertise, and organizational capacity with regard to space. There are significant physical differences between orbital flight, which is essentially uncontrolled after the initial placement into orbit, and atmospheric flight, which is (outside of technical difficulties) always controllable. Nor do these proposals recognize the different legal regime facing space traffic management. Unlike in air traffic management, there is no agreed-upon means of managing orbital traffic and space debris. Airspace can be regulated by the sovereign nations that control it, but outer space has no sovereign that could exercise the requisite jurisdiction. Policy Statement This section recommends policies that the Secure World Foundation should promote for adoption by United States policymakers. 23 Vandenberg Air Force Base. “Joint Functional Component Command for Space.” Accessed December 2, 2015. 24 National Aeronautics and Space Administration. “Space Debris and Human Spacecraft.” September 26, 2013. 25 Ram Jakhu, Tammaso Sgobba, and Paul Dempsy. “The Need for an Integrated Regulatory Regime for Aviation and Space; ICAO for Space?” Springer Wein, New York, 2011 14 The intended result of our policy recommendations for the Secure World Foundation is the sustainability of the near-Earth space environment. These recommendations are intended to support the development of domestic and international norms for the design and operational standards for small satellites, and especially for nanosatellites. They are intended to: balance the public interest in protecting the space environment with private interests in conducting activities in space; facilitate cooperation and consistency between relevant regulatory agencies; and to promote communication and cooperation between those public and private actors. In order to further the goals of small satellite users in industry and education, as well as their supporters in government, the Secure World Foundation should encourage the United States government to put forth policies that encourage groups planning to design and launch small satellites. These policies should avoid convoluted regulations while also establishing the responsibility for satellite operators and designers to avoid causing damage or harmful interference to other spacecraft. Based on these goals, we recommend the following policies. First, the Secure World Foundation should advocate for Congress to establish an overarching small satellite coordination office within the FAA’s Office of Commercial Space Transportation (AST). This new office would be responsible for synchronizing the licensing process between the various relevant regulatory agencies and small satellite operators. The coordination office would help small satellite operators, and especially new entrants to the industry, to become aware of and to comply with applicable regulations. The office would also coordinate regulations between various government agencies, including the FAA, the FCC, and NOAA, to ensure regulatory consistency across those as agencies and over time as technology develops and the small satellite industry matures. Additionally, the small satellite coordination office would streamline the process for licensing small satellites compared to prior use of experimental applications. Although the coordination office would not mandate specific regulations for other agencies to adopt, authority for this office to coordinate between the regulatory agencies would be granted by Congress. Second, the Secure World Foundation should advocate for Congress and the Executive Branch to require new regulations governing small satellite operations. These regulations would be adopted by the FCC as a condition for granting permission to satellite operators 15 to use radio spectrum frequencies, by NOAA as a condition for licensing Earth observation small satellites, and by the FAA as a condition for granting launch permits. The first of these regulations would require companies to file an end-of life plan with AST. The end-of-life plan would need to be approved by AST before the launch license could be granted, by the FCC before spectrum usage could be licensed, and by NOAA before any remote sensing license could be granted. This requirement would reduce the congestion of the LEO environment by decreasing the length of time during which small satellites will be in orbit and thereby reducing the risk of collision they pose over time. The second regulation would require the operational lifespan of the small satellite to be at least two-thirds of the total on-orbit duration of the satellite. This would not replace the pre-existing 25-year limit on total time while on orbit, but would be an additional condition for small satellites in LEO. By requiring a shorter duration for post-operational time on orbit, this regulation would also reduce the risk of collisions due to abandoned satellites. The third regulation would prohibit satellites without the ability to maneuver or otherwise avoid collisions from operating higher than 650 kilometers above the Earth’s surface or within 100 kilometers of the average altitude of the International Space Station (375 km). This policy would minimize the risk of collisions and harmful interference near humancrewed spacecraft and in orbits where CubeSats are expected to persist for 25 years or longer. The fourth regulation would require location-emitting transponders on all small satellites. This policy would make location information available to ground-based tracking systems as well as to nearby satellites, allowing satellite operators to respond accordingly to nearby CubeSats. Third, the Secure World Foundation should encourage Congress to instruct the FCC to update its policies for spectrum allocation for small satellites in LEO. These policies should limit the number of amateur band licenses granted and should prepare for a significantly higher volume of commercial satellite owners to use spectrum for small satellite constellations. The development of these policies, as well as the resulting licensing process, must be not be so time-consuming that it hinders the development of satellite systems. These policies must be consistent with international norms; while the current regulations are in line with established international rules, there are concerns by 16 other regulators about the use of amateur frequencies and by industry stakeholders about the pace at which the FCC processes spectrum filings. Fourth, the Secure World Foundation should encourage Congress to continue investing in space situational awareness (SSA) with no less than $1 billion per year through fiscal year 2020. By providing consistent funding to maintain and update SSA programs such as those within JSpOC, Congress can ensure that all stakeholders will have reliable information available. Finally, the Secure World Foundation should encourage the Executive Branch to seek bilateral and multilateral agreements with other countries. To make the regulations regarding technical and operational requirements for small satellites universal, it will be necessary for other nations with the capacity to launch small satellites to apply these regulations. The effective implementation of these policies should encourage other countries to follow the lead of the United States, and by pursuing bilateral and multilateral agreements, the United States government can expand the use of these regulations without the need to arrange for global consensus all at once. We considered several alternative policy ideas in developing our recommendations. With regard to domestic policies, we considered some less formal mechanisms, such as having the FAA encourage the satellite industry to develop a set of best practices for small satellite operators to follow voluntarily. This approach would likely not address the asymmetry between earlier industry participants and new entrants into the industry. Established stakeholders are concerned that lax application of safety standards for small satellites could harm their traditional satellites, which represent significant investments, while small satellite companies are concerned that traditional satellite operators will use their position to discourage the use of small satellites. Furthermore, this approach would necessarily lack the force of regulations. Another indirect mechanism would have recommended that the small satellite coordination office work with space industry insurers to produce standard insurance policy rules that would require safe practices in the LEO environment. This approach, which would remove control from regulators, could produce a system that would disproportionately benefit insurers at the expense of the small satellite industry. It would be dependent on the cooperation of the insurance companies, who might develop their own less effective standards, and on the cooperation of small satellite companies, who could seek out insurance companies with less rigorous requirements. Moreover, this 17 indirect approach to regulation is not likely to be accepted by international regulatory bodies. At the international level, we considered proposing modifications to the 1975 Registration Convention and to the 1967 Outer Space Treaty, and attempting to work with UN COPUOS and the UN Office for Outer Space Affairs. All of these approaches would be impractical for several reasons. First, they require time-consuming negotiations without any guarantee of success. This is especially true with regard to the several space treaties, where the amendment process would require an improbable consensus among countries with significantly disparate interests in space. Furthermore, these processes would give undue weight to the interests of countries with relatively little investment in space, and those countries would be capable of exercising that weight for strictly political reasons rather than in the interest of protecting the sustainability of the space environment. Policy Arguments 1. Formation of small satellite coordination office within FAA Strengths: Private actors interested in launching small satellites must obtain the necessary approvals and permits before launch. A single office where companies and other entities could find all information relevant to obtaining permits would simplify the licensing process and reduce the barriers to entry into space. This office would also help companies in navigating the regulatory process, which would lead to improved regulatory compliance by satellite operators because they could more easily learn about their responsibilities. A central office with authority granted by Congress would be able to coordinate between various regulatory bodies to ensure consistency and would clarify for industry stakeholders where in the government they could direct their concerns about these policies. The office could also have a role in mediating disputes between satellite operators before satellites are placed in orbit. Weaknesses: While a new office, properly implemented, could streamline the process of getting small satellites into space, a poorly implemented office could add another barrier to businesses looking to innovate in space. All stakeholders would need to cooperate fully with this office in order to achieve the desired increases in regulatory efficiency. The FAA-based office would need sufficient authority from Congress in order to preempt interagency conflict. New entrants into space may become less cooperative if they observe regulatory 18 exceptions made to grandfather in heritage spacecraft. Opportunities: This is an opportune time for putting together an office of small satellite coordination housed in the FAA. Small satellite companies have so far generally launched proof-ofconcept satellites and they can still make changes to their architecture if they are given the necessary information and clear regulations. Creating a single point of contact between companies and the government will enable communication as regulations are updated to reflect the realities of LEO operations, which will reduce companies’ frustration as well as their temptation to leave the United States in order to skirt confusing or redundant requirements. Threats: The small satellite coordination would require action from Congress, and such action cannot be taken as a given. Without legislative authority to carry out its mission, a coordination office in FAA would lack the power to ensure the consistency of the licensing process across the other relevant regulatory agencies. Without steady funding, the coordination office would risk becoming a burdensome layer of bureaucracy rather than a source of information and support for pre-launch requirements. Companies themselves may prove reluctant to provide information to the coordination office if they don’t believe that trade secrets will not be kept confidential. Further, companies may seek to lobby in support of their individual interests against regulations that are beneficial at a larger scale, which could result in regulations that do not effectively mitigate the increasing risks in orbital space. 2. Small satellite regulation updates Strengths: Regulations that outline methods of satellite control, position knowledge, and end-of-life plans would increase spacecraft operator confidence in the safety of their assets. Requiring satellite maneuverability in certain orbits and end-of-life plans will make it easier for companies to comply with limits on orbital lifetime. Implementing these policies now would help to avoid increasing congestion in LEO. Better space situational awareness and spacecraft maneuverability could make it possible to avoid predicted collisions. Signal-transmitting beacons would allow spacecraft to be identified more quickly after launch, which is particularly important when dozens of CubeSats can be accommodated on a single launch vehicle. 19 Weaknesses: Regulations that drive satellite operators to change mission parameters are more difficult to justify since they directly affect the financial cost of the project, and therefore satellite operators are more likely to oppose regulations that add to cost during the design stage. Regulators and industry stakeholders may decide that concerns over unduly burdening the small satellite industry should outweigh the improvements in space situational awareness provided by these requirements. Tasking the FAA with a larger responsibility for small satellite regulation would require additional funding, which may not be forthcoming. Furthermore, the FAA may not have the existing knowledge needed to properly implement new policies without the cooperation of other government agencies. The need for international cooperation may also be a challenge; even in areas which affect all space actors, improved knowledge of the space environment disproportionately helps larger space powers, which discourages broader support for initiatives such as debris mitigation. Opportunities: At this early point in the small satellite industry’s development, establishing requirements now for certain types of beacons or propulsion systems could reduce the development cost per small satellite unit. Further, the cost of implementing these requirements now would be less expensive than the cost of a catastrophic collision as a result of untracked, unmaneuverable objects on orbit. Better knowledge of satellites’ positions could also make it easier to manage radio spectrum by scheduling their ground contacts more precisely. In the future, better position knowledge could be useful for satellite servicing and component reuse. Threats: If the U.S. Department of Defense (DoD) were to use small satellites for national security purposes, DoD would likely be exempt from requirements that support reporting positioning data for other satellite operators’ benefit. In that case, non-compliance by government actors could create distrust when satellites are operating very near one another but cannot be identified. 3. Spectrum allocation policy updates for small satellites in LEO Strengths: While current spectrum policies are effective for the number of satellites that are currently on orbit, updates need to be made in preparation for the increasing usage of 20 LEO in general and by future small satellite constellations in particular. Preparing for increasing applications will allow the FCC to process them more quickly as needed. Limiting amateur licenses will help the U.S. to comply with international norms and reduce the likelihood that amateur spacecraft will interfere with other spacecraft. Policy updates that streamline the FCC licensing process will support continued commercial small satellite growth, ensure consistent regulation, and avoid stifling innovation while providing clear guidelines for small companies. Weaknesses: While smaller companies may find that updates to spectrum management policy in the United States would be helpful to them, larger satellite operators who rely heavily on spectrum in specific orbital slots may seek to block updates. Enforcing changes to existing spectrum policies may be difficult due to the large number of satellites already in orbit that cannot be updated and that may interfere with spacecraft using new protocols. Limitations on amateur spectrum usage could stall improvements in small satellite technology since it would be difficult to obtain low-cost and quick spectrum licensing for proof-of-concept missions. Opportunities: Because spectrum registration in the United States can take a long time and because its complexity can be a challenge for new satellite owners to navigate, there is excitement in the small satellites industry for developing a more streamlined process. International radio spectrum and telecommunications meetings are a good opportunity for small satellite companies and the United States government to put forward policies that are acceptable for all stakeholders. Threats: The current spectrum management rules work well for a small number of satellites, whose owners would not likely support changes to the status quo. Poorly implemented policy updates could cause the expected influx of spectrum requests to become backlogged, which would discourage confidence in the regulatory system. 4. Investment in Space Situational Awareness Strengths: Current U.S. investment in JSpOC’s space situational awareness capacity is roughly $1 billion per year, but the actual amount varies annually. The Government Accountability Office has found operation of a comprehensive SSA system within the DoD to be of vital 21 importance; because SSA is vital to space operations, stabilizing investment in SSA at the $1 billion level should be easily justifiable to lawmakers. Weaknesses: Comprehensive space situational awareness is expensive. Even in the case where it has broad bipartisan support, it is difficult to implement in a cost-effective and expedient manner. The amount of debris and inactive spacecraft tracked using the current groundbased methods is large and could strain JSpOC’s capacity to monitor it all. Comprehensive SSA requires tracking locations distributed around the world, which in turn requires international cooperation. New technology may require an increase in funding beyond the current $1 billion recommendation. Opportunities: The United States government is already a leader in space situational awareness and can demonstrate that position by continuing to support this critical service. Because JSpOC is within DoD, national security arguments in favor of strong funding are likely to be compelling to lawmakers. Further, the recent movie Gravity has brought the problem of debris strikes into the public consciousness, which could also be used to support SSA efforts. Threats: Though defense concerns may justify increased SSA spending, the DoD may also plan to put limits on the sharing of data to protect the location of its assets, even though open sharing of information is important for the success of SSA. 5. International agreements Strengths: Working to standardize regulations internationally would make it easier to justify specific requirements domestically. There are precedents for international partners agreeing to regulations proposed by the US when there are clear justifications for them, such as the 25-year orbital lifetime requirement. Weaknesses: The United States will have trouble advocating for policies whose utility have not yet been fully demonstrated; international agreements would likely need to wait until U.S. policies have been proven effective. Enforceable international agreements are frequently difficult and time-consuming to negotiate. 22 Opportunities: The United States has the opportunity to act as a leader in instituting workable space regulations and bringing evidence of success to international partners. Since many of the new small satellite operators are based in the United States, U.S. regulations will already have an impact on operator planning and on the space environment. There have also already been discussions internationally at previous IADC meetings concerning the need for updated regulations concerning small satellites. Threats: The pursuit of international agreements on small satellites may see objections from parties from in the U.S. and from other countries. U.S. skeptics of such agreements may argue that they limit U.S. industry, and Congress may be unwilling to work with certain countries, reducing the chances for universal adoption. International skeptics may be concerned that these agreements would largely benefit only the U.S. Summary and Assessment This paper recommends policies to address concerns over small satellite proliferation. As small satellites increase their share of the market, the government needs to implement measures that encourage private sector activities and thereby strengthen U.S. competitiveness internationally. On the other hand, satellite proliferation has resulted in an increased risk of collision between satellites in orbit. Fully a third of CubeSats are expected to remain in orbit well beyond their operational lifespan, which increases the collision risk they pose to other spacecraft. Further, spectrum interference is a pressing concern as the number of satellites in orbit continues to grow. The U.S. government will increasingly face these issues as small satellites proliferate in LEO over the next 5-10 years and beyond. As a leader in space, the United States must address these issues, solidifying its own regulatory regime nationally and promoting responsible international norms for others to follow. To mitigate those problems, this paper presents the following policy recommendations: creating a small satellite coordination office, imposing new technical and operational requirements for small satellites, updating spectrum allocation policy for small satellites, stabilizing the budget for space situational awareness through 2020, and promoting U.S. regulations as international standards through pursuit of bilateral or multilateral agreements. The implementation of these policy recommendations is intended to shorten the length of the time needed to license small satellites; to mitigate harmful radio 23 frequency interference; and to slow both the rate of spacecraft conjunctions occurring on orbit and the rate at which space debris is generated. First, this paper recommends that the government establish an overarching small satellite coordination office within the FAA. Since the increasing number of small satellite operators may not be familiar with the regulatory process and the reasons for it, this office would facilitate their understanding of, as well as their compliance with, those regulations. This office would also streamline the licensing procedures for small satellite operators by coordinating with other regulatory agencies, to improve the efficiency of the process and to support the international competitiveness of U.S. companies. However, the government should avoid simply creating another layer of bureaucracy for satellite operators to navigate. To this end, Congress needs to give this office sufficient authority and funding so that it may play an effective role in coordinating the licensing process among the other regulatory authorities. Second, the government should update requirements for small satellite operations to include stricter end-of-life plans, the inclusion of some means of satellite attitude control, updated orbital slot requirements, and the inclusion of a signal-transmitter to provide positioning information. These would make it easier for the government to predict and avoid collisions, and satellite operators to have confidence in the safety of their space assets. While the long-term benefits of improving spacecraft safety are significant, these regulations could result in an increase in the cost of building small satellites. Third, the U.S. government should update its spectrum management policies for small satellites. The risk of spectrum interference has been increasing as the number of small satellites increase, especially with amateur operators who previously could not afford the costs of satellite operation. Because amateur band licensees currently have no right to claim protection from interference, they will be more likely to cause interference themselves in the near future as the number of licensees increases. Tightening the screening criteria for them could help to mitigate future interference. Further, the government should streamline registration procedures to manage these new entrants, as well as to promote innovation in the United States and to avoid driving it to other countries. Fourth, the government should maintain the current levels of investment in space situational awareness, in order to continue upgrading the hardware and software necessary to monitor an increasingly crowded space environment. Better understanding of the space environment will help to ensure that small satellite operators follow national 24 and international space-debris mitigation guidelines and help the government to protect their own space assets. However, it costs a significant amount of money to build and maintain SSA facilities; even the current level of expenditures may not be sufficient if the volume of satellites and space debris increase at the current rate. It is furthermore impossible to monitor space in all directions from U.S. territory alone. Therefore, pursuing international cooperation is key to the success of maintaining and improving the capacity of U.S. space situational awareness. Finally, the United States should promote its regulations for the operation of small satellites as the international standard through bilateral and multilateral agreements. Presently, the COPUOS space debris mitigation guidelines are too vague with regard to technical requirements, while the IADC space debris mitigation guidelines are limited by the IADC’s small membership. In either case, these guidelines lack legal force. 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"CubeSat Proximity Operations: The Natural Evolution of Defensive Space Control into a Deterrence Initiative." The Space Review. 2016 Parvez, Rizwan. Vice president of systems development and integration at Bridgesat Inc. interviewed by Kate McGinnis. Phone interview, February 22, 2016. Oltrogge, Dan. “CubeSat Orbital Debris Policy Solutions and SSA.” Presented to National Academy of Sciences Committee on Achieving Science Goals with CubeSats. October 30, 2015. Price, Brennan. “Amateur Radio’s View on CubeSat Spectrum and Licensing Issues.” Presented to National Academy of Sciences Committee on Achieving Science Goals with CubeSats. October 30, 2015. Putnum, Lt Col Scott. “CubeSat Policy: Challenges & Opportunities.” Presented to National Academy of Sciences Committee on Achieving Science Goals with CubeSats. October 30, 2015. Smith, Phil. “Small Satellite Overview and Outlook.” Presented at the 19th Annual FAA Commercial Space Transportation Conference, February 2-3, 2016. Voss, David. “DoD Perspectives on CubeSats.” Presented at Achieving Science Goals with CubeSats Symposium, National Academy of Sciences, September 2-4, 2015. Weeden, Brian. “Overview of Space Debris and CubeSats.” Presented at Achieving Science Goals with CubeSats Symposium, National Academy of Sciences, September 24, 2015 29 Williams, Jonathan. “Spectrum Management of Space Services.” Presented to National Academy of Sciences Committee on Achieving Science Goals with CubeSats. October 30, 2015. Biographies Kate McGinnis is a master’s candidate studying space policy at the Space Policy Institute within the George Washington University’s Elliott School of International Affairs. She holds bachelor’s and master’s degrees in mechanical engineering. She previously worked as a spacecraft proposal engineer at Orbital ATK and is currently a satellite systems engineer at NOAA. Devin Osting is a master’s candidate studying space policy at the Space Policy Institute within the George Washington University’s Elliott School of International Affairs. He holds a bachelor’s degree in political science/philosophy/economics. Kentaro Tanaka holds a bachelor’s degree in astrophysics and is a master’s candidate studying space policy at the Space Policy Institute within the George Washington University’s Elliott School of International Affairs. He works for SKY Perfect JSAT Corporation, a Japanese satellite operator. He has worked in Hong Kong for the AsiaOceania telecommunications satellite industry, and in Tokyo developing one of the largest public-private projects in Japan for the Japanese space and defense field. William West is a master’s candidate studying space policy at the Space Policy Institute within the George Washington University’s Elliott School of International Affairs. He has worked in NASA’s Office of International and Interagency Relations, and he has a bachelor’s degree in Geography.
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