Demographic Consequences of Asian
Disasters: Family Dynamics, Social Capital and
Migration Patterns
Dr Helen James
Associate Professor (adjunct)
ADSRI, ANU
2012
Research Focus
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Project brings together demography, disaster
theory, and climate change adaptation theory
(part of development community)
Literature on population vulnerability, resilience
and adaptation now recognizes that these three
research communities need to interact
Little research on long term demographic
consequences, and implications for public policy
Why Asian Disasters?
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Asia hosts largest proportion of world’s population, suffers
majority of natural disasters, has suffered extensive human
and material losses from natural disasters.
1999-2009 Asian Disaster Losses
2909 events (50% of world total)
1.02m mortalities (90%)
2.3bn people affected (85%)
USD414billion in estimated costs (64%)
Source: EM-DAT, CRED, Univ of Louvain, Belgium
Aims of Project
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To investigate the demographic consequences of
natural disasters in Asia for family dynamics,
social capital and migration trends;
To identify adaptive behaviours of selected
population groups affected by natural disasters;
To analyze how the development of, and social
response to government policies on family and
migration is influenced by natural disasters.
Research Questions
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1. By what pathways do mortalities caused by natural
disasters impact on women, men, children, the elderly and
people with disabilities?
2. How are family dynamics impacted by natural disasters?
3. How does access to social capital in family and kinship
networks, and land and assets influence survival rates and
adaptive behaviors after a disaster?
4. What is the impact on migration into and out of disasteraffected areas and what are the socio-economic impacts of
these migration flows on individuals and populations?
5. What are the long-term demographic impacts of natural
disasters for governmental planning on reconstruction,
housing, education, health, gender and environmental
policies?
Related Fields of Inquiry and Research
Frameworks
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Analytical Fields:
1. What is the correlation between health care,
maternal and child health, mental health
and reproductive health care after a
disaster?
2. How do culture, religion and education affect
the responses of populations impacted by a
natural disaster?
3. How do governments respond to natural
disasters in terms of family and migration
policies?
Countries and Disasters of Focus
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China – SW China earthquake of 2008; floods in
Yang-tze valley
Iran – Bam earthquake (2003);Majil-Roudbar
(1990), Tabriz (2012) earthquakes
Myanmar – Cyclone Nargis (2008)
Indonesia – Yogyakarta earthquake (2006)
Philippines – typhoons, floods, Mt Pinatubo
eruption (1991)
Taiwan – typhoon Morakot (2009), Chi-Chi
earthquake (1999).
Data Problems
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Both qualitative and quantitative
methodologies – investigate pre and post
disaster family formation and migration
trends in affected areas
Use of Census data where available (not
available in Myanmar)
 Use of DHS, Household and Living
Conditions Surveys, international surveys
 Field Work
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Theoretical Frameworks
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Resilience, Adaptation and Transformation
theory (Paton and Pelling etc)
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Social Construction of Vulnerability
(Cutter)
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Application of principles in Hyogo
Framework for Action 2005 – 2015
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Human Security (UNDP Human
Development Reports)
HAZARDS OF PLACE MODEL (modified from Cutter, 1996)
COMMUNITY SECURITY – SUSTAINABLE
COMMUNITIES
Insecurity/vulnerability – socially
constructed – poor, elderly, femaleheaded households, recent immigrants
 Suggests: Community Vulnerability Maps
– integrate into GIS systems
 Role of assets – human and personal
(education, finance); social resources
(family, networks of reciprocity); political
resources (power and autonomy)
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KEY FACTORS IN COMMUNITY SECURITY
Pre-existing patterns of community
settlement and development
 Patterns of social interaction and
organisation
 Social hierarchies - - Access to
resources  unequal exposure to risk
 Assessing community security requires
comprehensive understanding of these
patterns within a community
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INTERSECTING VECTORS
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Community Security – function of: economic
security; environmental security; personal
security; political security
Emergency response/planning need to focus on
economically marginal groups to reduce
community vulnerability, enhance community
security (from ‘disaster’ perspective)
Economic issues arising from social
stratification/poverty impact on community
security
Human, personal resources: health, age,
children, education
POWER AND AUTONOMY
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Community security, resilience is a function of the relation
of household(s) to community-decision makers
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Position in local political power structure
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Linguistic and cultural factors impact on the social
construction of community security
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Gender in recovery – women have a difficult time surviving
a community disaster; less autonomy; family violence;
possible lack of sharing of resources by other (male) family
members
Community vulnerability inventory – to assess unique social
and political patterns in community
Leadership at local level is critical
ENVIRONMENTAL SECURITY
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Social Vulnerability Index – potential for loss –
know least about socially created vulnerabilities –
ignored; difficulty in quantifying them – social
losses absent in after-disaster assessments
Product of: social inequalities; place inequalities,
– urbanization, growth rates, economic vitality
Little comparative research – SoVI:
multidimensional; characteristics and experiences
of communities enabling them to respond and
recover from environmental threats.
Can use Census data for historical reconstruction
of how SoVI has changed over time and place.
Expected Outcomes
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It will enable researchers to map the population patterns
which emerge from large scale natural disasters
Findings of comparative research can be applied to the
region; and bring out cross cultural contexts of disaster risk
governance
Current lack of evidence base is major limitation for policy
development on questions of local economic and social
sustainability, migration and equity across genders and by
age.
Demographic and cross cultural focus will open a platform
for future research in field.