Cumulative effects and the PCH
Presentation to the PCMB
Oct. 28 2011
Don Russell
What are we currently doing?
• Input refinements:
– Can now generate forage quality, forage quantity, diet, activity from
annual climate data
– Have a working version of scenario developer – includes development
and climate change
– Working on building in ability to move animals into different regions,
habitats and re-generating diet and activity
• Model refinements:
– Allow for multi-year runs
– Allow us to model “risk’ – build in natural variability – stochastic
• Exercising the model
– Comparing output to available validation data
– How do initial body weight and current year’s weather interact with
climate change and development exposure – see examples
Near future tasks
• Resource Selection Function:
– A way to allocate animals into habitats depending on
development, climate
– Chris Johnson, UNBC, has vegetation map and footprint
map that Shawn provided
– We will work with him to set up the analysis
• Caribou calculator
– Work with Craig Nicolsen to translate output from Energyprotein model to feed into population dynamics and
harvest
Scenario Builder
Initial body condition
Reproductive status
Climate change
Current years weather
Development
HOW IS WEATHER HANDLED IN THE MODEL?
Current years weather
Model user can now pick any
year, decade, best, worst,
year for the PCH 1979-2009
• accumulated GDD June 15 to July15 in previous year
- dictates cottongrass flowering – impacts diet
•insect insects for warbles and mosquitoes (based
on temp/wind) – impacts activity
•Mushroom index – biomass of mushrooms – based on
previous May rainfall and current June rainfall – impacts
diet, late summer protein source
SETTING INITIAL CONDITIONS
•target birth weight is maximum birth weight of calf if resources unlimited
•body weight and proportion fat used to calculate initial condition of cow
•Can set if cow is pregnant or lactating January 1 , whether she lactates at
calf’s birth and whether she gets pregnant next fall
HOW DOES THE MODEL CURRENTLY MODEL IMPACTS CLIMATE CHANGE
•Current simplistic set up allows user to set
•Change in summer temperature
•Change in May/June precipitation
•Change in winter snow
•Change in spring temperature
•These changes impact food quality, quantity, diet, activity,
HOW DOES THE MODEL HANDLE DEVELOPMENT
•Currently we can look at up to 5 generic developments
• for each development can set time period impacted
• for each development can set impact on activity
•currently we don’t handle shifts in habitat (see RSF)
Exercising the model: Modelling probability of pregnancy in fall
Climate
change
Animal
condition
Current
years
weather
development
Fall
condition
Probability
of pregnancy
Ran the model 16 times
Runs:
• Poor and good initial body weight
• Best and worst current years weather
• Climate change and no climate change
• Development and no development
Then:
• Converted fall body weight
to probability of pregnancy
OUTPUT FROM THE RUNS
ALL RUNS
73
GOOD
CLIMATE
86
NODEV
98
NOCC
100
WORST
CLIMATE
56
Hi
BODY
WT
65
DEV
78
CC
97
NOCC
80
CC
76
NODEV
73
LO
BODY
WT
51
DEV
59
NO
DEV
56
DEV
45
Need to spend time with PCMB or subgroup of PCMB?
• Need to work with the PCMB to develop practical
tools and applications from this project.
– What tools does the Board want developed to better
deal with development scenarios and learn about the
role of possible future climate
– Is there a role in this CE project to play in the annual
HMP deliberations – climate is updated and added
annually
– What research needs can be identified from this
process to gain more confidence in dealing with
development and climate change.