Town of Okotoks Growth Study and Financial Analysis
Council Presentation
24 February 2014
PRESENTATION OUTLINE
Overview
What can be expected for future growth in Okotoks?
Where could future growth go within Okotoks?
Where could growth go in the future?
What is needed to accommodate this growth?
Conclusions
OVERVIEW
• Consultant Team:
- O2 Planning + Design, Inc. (Calgary)
- Coriolis Consulting Corp. (Vancouver)
OVERVIEW
• Project Objective: Determine a growth strategy for the
Town of Okotoks over the next 60 years
- Estimate projected land needs:
• Residential
• Commercial
• Industrial
- Determine areas for expansion
- Provide a general assessment of the implications of
growth (infrastructure, costs)
OVERVIEW
Accommodating future growth within Okotoks can accomplish
multiple community goals:
• Competitive land market
• Mix of housing types
• Efficiency with servicing for water, wastewater, and
transportation
• Maintaining economic competitiveness
• Conserving the landscape
POPULATION PROJECTIONS
OVERVIEW
• Calgary Region is expected to continue period of high
growth: about 2.7 million by 2073
• Recent growth in Okotoks has been significant:
- Regional service centre
- 4.4% of total Calgary region growth
- 110% increase in residents between 2001, 2011
- Current population (2013): ~27,057
POPULATION PROJECTIONS
TOWN OF OKOTOKS: 2013-2073
REQUIRED LANDS FOR GROWTH
RESIDENTIAL
• Assumptions:
- Lower household sizes (ageing in place)
- Slight decrease in single-family housing demand
- Slight increase in multifamily housing demand
- Higher densities of development
• Total estimated housing demand, 2013-2073:
- 15,790 single-detached units
- 2,591 attached units (row + semi-detached)
- 5,182 apartment units
REQUIRED LANDS FOR GROWTH
EMPLOYMENT LANDS: COMMERCIAL
• Assumes that Okotoks remains a regional centre:
- Convenience retail (local + regional)
- Regional/destination shopping
- Locally-oriented office demand
• Estimations of demand:
- Supportable commercial floor space: 4.4 million sq. ft.
- Additional commercial floor space required:
2.7 million sq. ft.
REQUIRED LANDS FOR GROWTH
EMPLOYMENT LANDS: INDUSTRIAL
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•
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Historic trends in industrial growth used
Potential for additional growth from AFICA
Current stock: ~845,000 sq. ft.
Average estimates: 60,000 sq. ft. / year required
Required additional space: 3.6 million sq. ft.
CURRENT LAND SUPPLIES
MAP OF VACANT LANDS (SUMMER 2013)
CURRENT LAND SUPPLIES
RESIDENTIAL LANDS
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•
•
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Total stock of developable lands: 3,771 units
Breakdown:
Single Detached: 3,256 units
Attached: 160 units
Apartment: 355 units
Includes:
Existing surveyed lots
Mountainview
NE Okotoks ASP / Air Ranch
Cimarron Springs / Cimarron Estates
Wedderburn Lands
D’Arcy Ranch
CURRENT LAND SUPPLIES
COMMERCIAL / INDUSTRIAL LANDS
• Current / future available lots:
- Commercial: 36.2 hectares
- Industrial: 85.1 hectares
• Primary areas for growth:
- Central industrial area (industrial)
- Southbank Industrial Area (commercial/industrial)
- North Gateway Centre (commercial)
- Wedderburn Lands (commercial)
- NE Okotoks (mixed-use)
CURRENT LAND SUPPLIES
GAP BETWEEN SUPPLIES AND DEMAND
• Considering existing supplies, 1,163 hectares of additional
land required for the next 60 years:
- 549 hectares of net residential lands
- 49 hectares of net commercial lands
- 27 hectares of net industrial lands
- 140 hectares of net land other uses (e.g., inst. uses,
open space, etc.)
- 399 hectares for other purposes (e.g., street ROWs,
MR/ER, stormwater management, etc.)
POTENTIAL LAND SUPPLIES
OVERVIEW
• Current vacant land supplies are not sufficient; additional
lands required to accommodate growth
• Evaluated ideal locations for growth by assessing:
- Environmental Vulnerability (areas with high/low
sensitivity to development)
- Development Priority (areas ideal for specific types of
development)
POTENTIAL LAND SUPPLIES
ENVIRONMENTAL VULNERABILITY
• Environmental Vulnerability includes:
- Soil Stability
- Wetlands and drainage features
- Natural land cover
- Agricultural lands
- Restricted development policies
POTENTIAL LAND SUPPLIES
DEVELOPMENT SUITABILITY
• Development Suitability evaluated for residential,
commercial, industrial land uses separately
• Measures include such factors as:
- Transportation access
- Proximity to different land use types
- Parcel size / fragmentation
- Airport noise / height restrictions
POTENTIAL LAND SUPPLIES
ENVIRONMENTAL VULNERABILITY
POTENTIAL LAND SUPPLIES
DEVELOPMENT PRIORITY: RESIDENTIAL
POTENTIAL LAND SUPPLIES
DEVELOPMENT PRIORITY: COMMERCIAL
POTENTIAL LAND SUPPLIES
DEVELOPMENT PRIORITY: INDUSTRIAL
GROWTH CONCEPT
OVERVIEW
• Potential directions for expansion of Town boundary
• Selection of lands considered Environmental Vulnerability,
Development Suitability
• Five general areas:
- 30-Year Residential (residential + mixed-use nodes)
- 60-Year Residential (residential + mixed-use nodes)
- Highway Commercial / Industrial
- Gateway Areas
- Current IDP Annexation Area (Campground Lands)
GROWTH CONCEPT
OVERVIEW
• Additional features:
- Major corridors + nodes for more intense development
- Transportation connections
- Potential high-elevation siting for water facilities
- Existing commercial / industrial development in
Gateway Areas
GROWTH CONCEPT
MAP OF CONCEPT
GROWTH CONCEPT
DESCRIPTION
• Four primary growth directions:
North: Residential development with mixed-use nodes
West: Residential development (inc. Sandstone Springs)
South: Residential development with mixed-use node
(inc. Wind Walk)
Southeast: Commercial/industrial development
GROWTH CONCEPT
GROWTH DIRECTION: NORTH
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•
•
•
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Residential/commercial land
uses
Two mixed-use nodes:
32 St E / 338 Ave E
48 St E / 338 Ave E
Major connections to
Highways 2 and 2A
Additional areas for
transportation gateways:
Highway 2A gateway
338 Ave E arterial
GROWTH CONCEPT
GROWTH DIRECTION: WEST
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•
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Residential land uses
Primary corridor along Big
Rock Trail from Okotoks to
Highway 7
Sandstone Springs ASP
located in this area
GROWTH CONCEPT
GROWTH DIRECTION: SOUTH
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•
•
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Primarily residential /
commercial land uses
Major node at intersection of
Highway 7, 32 St E
Wind Walk ASP located in this
area
Additional area for control of
transportation gateway along
Highway 7
GROWTH CONCEPT
GROWTH DIRECTION: SOUTHEAST
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Primarily highway-oriented
commercial, industrial uses
Extension of current
Southbank Industrial District
Highway 2A Industrial (H2AI)
ASP located in this area
Additional area identified in
IDP for annexation
(Campground Lands)
GROWTH CONCEPT
ADDITIONAL COMMERCIAL/INDUSTRIAL LANDS
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•
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Industrial land projections
based on viability of the
Highway 2A Industrial ASP
and AFICA
If industrial development
limited in H2AI ASP,
additional industrial lands
could be developed around
Okotoks
Potential ~300 ha to
supplement industrial land
supply
Additional servicing studies
required
GROWTH CONCEPT
INFRASTRUCTURE REQUIREMENTS
• Potable water
- Based on additional treated water supplies from
the City of Calgary
- Major storage facilities to be located in the north
- Allocation of supplies:
• New water supplies would service north Okotoks
• Existing water supplies would service south Okotoks
GROWTH CONCEPT
INFRASTRUCTURE REQUIREMENTS
• Sanitary Sewer
- New wastewater treatment plant upgrades
- Additional forcemains required parallel to current north,
south Town boundary
- New river crossing siphon required
GROWTH CONCEPT
INFRASTRUCTURE REQUIREMENTS
• Transportation
- Upgrades required to Highways 2, 2A, 7 + intersections
- Upgrade of 338 Ave E + new 330 Ave E
- New highway intersection: 338 Ave E + Highway 2
- Additional widening, corridor optimization, etc.
GROWTH CONCEPT
INFRASTRUCTURE REQUIREMENTS – 30-YEAR TRANSPORTATION
GROWTH CONCEPT
INFRASTRUCTURE REQUIREMENTS – 60-YEAR TRANSPORTATION
FISCAL ASSESSMENT
FISCAL ASSESSMENT
• Costs, 30-year infrastructure expansion:
Water Infrastructure
Treated water pipeline – Calgary to Okotoks (north)
Water storage (to 2043)
Transmission mains
$ 44,600,000
$ 19,400,000
$ 22,000,000
$ 3,200,000
Wastewater Infrastructure
Offsite sanitary collection
Wastewater treatment plant improvements
$ 56,325,400
$ 16,325,400
$ 40,000,000
Transportation Infrastructure
$ 193,140,000
TOTAL
$ 294,065,400
FISCAL ASSESSMENT
FISCAL ASSESSMENT
• Funding sources, 30-year infrastructure expansion:
Water Infrastructure
Provincial support (assumed 80% of total cost)
Off-site levies
$ 44,600,000
$35,680,000
$8,920,000
Wastewater Infrastructure
Provincial support (assumed 20% of WWTP cost)
Off-site levies
$ 56,325,400
$8,000,000
$48,325,400
Transportation Infrastructure
Provincial / federal support
Developer contributions
Off-site levies
$ 193,140,000
$82,400,000
$40,000,000
$70,740,000
TOTAL
$ 294,065,400
FISCAL ASSESSMENT
DEVELOPMENT LEVIES
• Development levies, assuming 2,130 acres developed:
Item
Water
(City of Calgary Growth Charge)
Sanitary Sewer
Transportation
Public Facilities*
Total Levy
$8,920,000
TOTAL
$127,058,500
$48,325,400
$70,740,000
Levy per acre
$4,188
$9,906
$22,688
$33,211
$12,000
$81,993
FISCAL ASSESSMENT
DEVELOPMENT LEVY COMPARISONS
• Regional comparison of levy rates:
Okotoks
(current)
Okotoks
(estimated)
Airdrie
Calgary
Transportation
Water
Sanitary Sewer
Public Facilities*
$ 5,249
$ 17,292
$ 4,158
$ 12,000
$ 33,211
$ 14,094
$ 22,688
$ 12,000
$ 41,709
$ 13,068
$ 7,462
$ 7,800
$ 48,423
$ 9,906
$ 24,468
$ 30,136
TOTAL
$ 38,699
$ 81,993
$ 70,039
$ 112,933
CONCLUSIONS
• Future work:
- Dialogue with local landowners, neighbours
- Negotiation with MD Foothills on annexation, IDP
- Amendments to Municipal Development Plan
- Review of development levy structure
- Development of new Area Structure Plans
- Potential Area Redevelopment Plan for downtown