Soil Carbon Storage and Greenhouse Gas Abatement in Commercial Cropping Systems Contents Key findings ............................................................................................................................................. 1 Soil Organic Carbon (SOC) levels on-farm .......................................................................................................... 1 Abating greenhouse gas emissions from soils.................................................................................................... 2 Background ............................................................................................................................................. 3 The Project ......................................................................................................................................................... 3 Participants ........................................................................................................................................................ 4 Methods .................................................................................................................................................. 8 Soil sampling design ........................................................................................................................................... 8 Laboratory analysis .......................................................................................................................................... 11 Soil sample preparation ................................................................................................................ 11 Soil measurements........................................................................................................................ 11 Abating greenhouse gas emissions from soils.................................................................................................. 13 Configuration of the APSIM model ............................................................................................... 14 Model parameterisation, validation, and operation .................................................................... 16 The scenarios ................................................................................................................................ 17 Calculation of global warming potential ....................................................................................... 18 Results & Discussion ............................................................................................................................. 19 Soil Morphology ............................................................................................................................................... 19 Soil type and texture ........................................................................................................................................ 19 Initial soil carbon content (SOC) ....................................................................................................................... 24 Spatial variability in initial SOC ......................................................................................................................... 26 Relationship between soil texture and SOC ..................................................................................................... 28 Change in carbon stock (SCS) over time ........................................................................................................... 29 Soil phosphatase activity .................................................................................................................................. 34 Greenhouse gas abatement ............................................................................................................................. 39 Parameterisation and validation of the APSIM model to field sites ............................................. 39 Scenarios with potential to mitigate greenhouse gas emissions.................................................. 39 Greenhouse gas abatement conclusions ......................................................................................................... 43 Conclusions and implications for the future ......................................................................................... 43 Next Steps ............................................................................................................................................. 44 Outreach ............................................................................................................................................... 45 References ............................................................................................................................................ 46 Appendix 1. Example Profile Morphological Report ............................................................................. 52 Appendix 2: Kambodia greenhouse gas abatement simulations ......................................................... 59 Model parameterisation .................................................................................................................................. 59 Soils ............................................................................................................................................... 59 Climate .......................................................................................................................................... 59 Management practices ................................................................................................................. 59 Biophysical modelling....................................................................................................................................... 61 Parameterisation of APSIM to the Across Rail paddock at Kambodia .......................................... 61 Modelling of the scenarios............................................................................................................ 64 Parameterisation of APSIM to the New paddock at Kambodia .................................................... 68 Modelling of the scenarios............................................................................................................ 70 Appendix 3: Livingston greenhouse gas abatement simulations ......................................................... 74 Model parameterisation .................................................................................................................................. 74 Soils ............................................................................................................................................... 74 Climate .......................................................................................................................................... 74 Management practices ................................................................................................................. 74 Biophysical modelling....................................................................................................................................... 76 Parameterisation of APSIM to the Airport paddock at Livingston................................................ 76 Modelling of the scenarios............................................................................................................ 78 Parameterisation of APSIM to the JKL No Till paddock at Livingston ........................................... 82 Modelling of the scenarios............................................................................................................ 84 Appendix 4: Lachlan Downs greenhouse gas abatement simulations ................................................. 88 Model parameterisation .................................................................................................................................. 88 Soils ............................................................................................................................................... 88 Climate .......................................................................................................................................... 88 Management practices ................................................................................................................. 88 Biophysical modelling....................................................................................................................................... 89 Parameterisation of APSIM to the Wheat paddock at Lachlan Downs ........................................ 89 Modelling of the scenarios............................................................................................................ 92 Appendix 5: Kilnyana greenhouse gas abatement simulations ............................................................ 96 Model parameterisation .................................................................................................................................. 96 Soils ............................................................................................................................................... 96 Climate .......................................................................................................................................... 96 Management practices ................................................................................................................. 96 Biophysical modelling....................................................................................................................................... 98 Parameterisation of APSIM to the Boatrock paddock at Kilnyana ............................................... 98 Modelling of the scenarios.......................................................................................................... 101 Parameterisation of APSIM to the Middleplain paddock at Kilnyana ........................................ 106 Modelling of the scenarios.......................................................................................................... 109 Appendix 6: Merrilong greenhouse gas abatement simulations........................................................ 113 Model parameterisation ................................................................................................................................ 113 Soils ............................................................................................................................................. 113 Climate ........................................................................................................................................ 113 Management practices ............................................................................................................... 113 Biophysical modelling..................................................................................................................................... 115 Parameterisation of APSIM to the Dimby1 paddock at Merrilong ............................................. 115 Modelling of the scenarios.......................................................................................................... 118 Parameterisation of APSIM to the Dimby5 paddock at Merrilong ............................................. 122 Modelling of the scenarios.......................................................................................................... 124 Parameterisation of APSIM to the Willows paddock at Merrilong............................................. 128 Modelling of the scenarios.......................................................................................................... 131 Appendix 7: Warili greenhouse gas abatement simulations .............................................................. 135 Model parameterisation ................................................................................................................................ 135 Soils ............................................................................................................................................. 135 Climate ........................................................................................................................................ 135 Management practices ............................................................................................................... 135 Biophysical modelling..................................................................................................................................... 137 Parameterisation of APSIM to the Buttenshaw paddock at Warili ............................................ 137 Modelling of the scenarios.......................................................................................................... 139 Parameterisation of APSIM to the Cattleyard paddock at Warili ............................................... 143 Modelling of the scenarios.......................................................................................................... 145 Appendix 8: Wilgo greenhouse gas abatement simulations .............................................................. 150 Model parameterisation ................................................................................................................................ 150 Soils ............................................................................................................................................. 150 Climate ........................................................................................................................................ 150 Management practices ............................................................................................................... 150 Biophysical modelling..................................................................................................................................... 152 Parameterisation of APSIM to the Blackstump paddock at Wilgo ............................................. 152 Modelling of the scenarios.......................................................................................................... 155 Parameterisation of APSIM to the Clearview paddock at Wilgo ................................................ 159 Modelling of the scenarios.......................................................................................................... 161 Appendix 9: Eurie Euire greenhouse gas abatement simulations ...................................................... 165 Model parameterisation ................................................................................................................................ 165 Soils ............................................................................................................................................. 165 Climate ........................................................................................................................................ 165 Management practices ............................................................................................................... 165 Biophysical modelling..................................................................................................................................... 166 Parameterisation of APSIM to the P4 paddock at Eurie Eurie .................................................... 166 Modelling of the scenarios.......................................................................................................... 169 Soil Carbon Storage and Greenhouse Gas Abatement in Commercial Cropping Systems: Science to Best Agronomic Practice Action on the Ground Project 2012 – 2015 Brett Whelan1, Kanika Singh1, Peter Thorburn2, Jeda Palmer2, Elizabeth Meier2, David Eyre3. 1 Precision Agriculture Laboratory, Faculty of Agriculture and Environment, University of Sydney CSIRO Agriculture, Queensland Biosciences Precinct, St Lucia, Brisbane, QLD 3 Research, Development & Innovation Division, NSW Farmers 2 Key findings Soil Organic Carbon (SOC) levels on-farm x Total soil organic carbon (SOC) levels (0-30cm) were found to be significantly higher in pasture/native areas compared to cropped areas. x The farms with higher SOC levels also generally exhibit the largest variability in SOC which may have cost implications for sampling design and intensity in any long-term direct monitoring/auditing of SOC content. Increased costs may impact on the propensity for farmers to participate in market-based carbon farming/trading schemes. x While there is some evidence that fields under no-till (NT) management may have slightly higher SOC levels than conventionally cultivated (CT) fields, the differences are not statistically significant. x Across the farms in the study, large spatial variability of soil texture was found within different areas of the same farms x SOC levels appear to be significantly higher in Silty Clay soil compared to Clay and Sandy Clay soil across the study farms. x Where crop yield maps were available, significant within-field relationships between yield and SOC levels, soil texture and total gammaradiometric count were identified. x Therefore, areas with lower than average SOC and high silt/clay fractions may be areas with the greatest potential to increase SOC in the future. Management options within cropping or pasture phases that increase organic matter entering the soil in these areas may be the most effective way to increase overall field/farm SOC levels. One way of achieving this goal in a cropping situation would be to ensure that seasonal crop yield/biomass production potential is achieved on these areas. x Over the two year sampling period, SOC levels in the majority of fields (49%) did not significantly change, 17% rose significantly and 34% decreased significantly. The decreases in SOC can be partly attributed to a below average total rainfall for the period contributing to reduced vegetative input in some areas. x Soil enzyme activity, reflecting biological activity in the soil, was higher in no-till systems (NT) as compared to conventionally tilled systems (CT). 1 x Soil enzyme activity significantly dropped between 2013 and 2015 where lack of rainfall restricted cropping operations for one season. Soil enzyme activity remained unchanged in areas where local rainfall for the period remained close to long-term averages. x The baseline data has provided information to the participating farmers that often wasn’t as expected, but quantification of SOC levels has enabled clearer decision making regarding future management change trials. Abating greenhouse gas emissions from soils x Of the wide range of management practices assessed using production modelling, SOC was estimated to increase compared with baseline practices when there was an increase in organic matter inputs (e.g. summer legume crops, winter legume pasture crops, or manure additions). x Generally, nitrous oxide emissions were estimated to increase compared to baseline emissions under the management practices in which soil carbon increased. x In many cases, the simulated greenhouse gas abatement provided by the sequestered carbon was greater than the rise in greenhouse effect predicted from the corresponding increase in nitrous oxide emissions, and therefore led to net abatement. x Management practices that include a summer crop or a pasture phase in the rotation have the capacity to provide greenhouse gas abatement for many grain farming sites in New South Wales. Exceptions include irrigated sites with high fertiliser use. Management strategies that can provide abatement at irrigated sites include reductions to nitrogen fertiliser. x Other management practices (such as additions of manure, or changes to nitrogen fertiliser application rate) have the capacity to provide abatement at selected sites and therefore may warrant site-specific consideration. 2 Background The Project NSW Farmers, The University of Sydney, CSIRO and 10 NSW farm enterprises collaborated on a three year Department of Agriculture Food and Fisheries (DAFF) funded project aimed at exploring the potential impact of management changes on the storage of carbon in the soil (SOC) and the emissions of greenhouse gases from commercial farming systems. Improving knowledge of the baseline situation and then starting down the path of testing potential changes that are commercially and agronomically appropriate for local production systems was undertaken. The impetus is multifaceted. It draws on the societal discussion around the importance of SOC and nitrogen (N) in the climate and food security debates, improving the resource use efficiency of agricultural production and improving the quality, productivity and profitability of farming systems. These issues have a wide-ranging global impact, but it is expected that the practical importance for managing SOC and greenhouse gas emissions in NSW will be highly dependent on changes in local/regional environmental variables such as climate, soil type and farming operation as highlighted by the work of the NSW DPI (Chan, 2008; Chan et. al, 2009). Understanding the management of SOC and greenhouse gas emissions at the farm or field scale, and the success of any market-based storage/emission reduction schemes, will also be dependent on establishing baseline and change-over-time estimates within an acceptable degree of accuracy (Walcott et al., 2009). Methodologies for achieving these goals continue to be discussed. For SOC, a number of sampling strategies for direct measurement have been recently proposed by the NSW DPI (Murphy et al., 2013) and the CSIRO (Chappell et al., 2013). These protocols aim to identify sample site locations that will best estimate the average SOC within the area of interest by stratifying the area to encompass the expected variation in SOC using design-based or model-based systems respectively. These two methodologies acknowledge the impact that actual variation in SOC and sample number will have on the costs of direct measurement. This project aimed to contribute to improving the understanding of the practical challenges and costs of establishing, implementing, monitoring and verifying SOC and greenhouse gas emissions for such market-based storage and abatement schemes. In particular, the project gathered data that will help inform industry discussions around the stratification methods, and associated costs, for the soil sampling required to provide valid SOC baseline and SOC change-over-time data. The 3 participatory aspect of the project also explored the appetite of farmers for the work and investment involved in participating in market-based carbon farming/trading schemes. Participants Ten cropping/mixed farming enterprises located across five Biogeoregions of NSW collaborated in the project (Figures 1 and 2). The measurement of SOC was performed in accordance with the National SC Research Program (SCaRP) field and laboratory techniques which require the calculation of total soil organic carbon (SOC). The greenhouse gas budget was estimated using the emission factor approach described in the Australian National Greenhouse Accounts: National Inventory Report 2011. Initial on-farm planning meetings were held in March 2013 to formulate the desired farm-driven research goals for each farm and select appropriate field-scale trial sites (Figure 2). At least ten samples are required by the SCaRP protocol to produce a good estimation of the SOC at each trial site, which meant that three trial sites per farm were possible within the project budget. The majority of farmers were interested in exploring the impact of both current and trial farming practices on SOC and greenhouse gas emissions, so a native/pasture site was included on most of the properties. This enables a comparison with relatively ‘natural’ SOC and greenhouse gas emission levels for both current and future practices (Table 1). The general practices that farmers chose to be included in the trials are depicted in Figure 3. Figure 1: 10 farm site locations included in the project, Kambodia (Moree), Livingston (Moree), Eurie Eurie (Walgett), The Plantation (Bundella), Merrilong (Yarraman), Warili (Forbes), Lachlan Downs (Rankin Springs), Merribee (Binya), Kilnyana (Mulwala) and Wilgo (Mulwala). 4 Figure 2: Photographs taken during initial meetings and soil surveys 5 Table1: Participant field summaries. Farm ( Location) Merribee (Binya) Paddock and intended plan 1. Pump: Fourth year rice 2014/15. 2. Merribee: Wheat 2014 (harvest Dec 14) 3. Wet area: Second year rice 2014/15 Two types of stubble burning is undertaken on this farm: x x Full burn- when going from rice into rice Flag leaf burn- when going from rice into cereal crop Crop rotation with rice and impact on SOC. Cropping versus native comparison. Warili (Forbes) 1. Old cattle yard: Perennial pasture moved to sorghum 2013/14. Double cropped Canola 2014 2. Buttenshaws: Continuous cropping for 6 years with wheat and canola rotation 3. Scrubby lane: Native area for a baseline soil carbon comparison will remain uncultivated. Canola accidently sprayed out in 2013, changed to summer sorghum crop 2013/2014. Impact of pasture phase versus continuous cropping. Cropping versus native comparison. Kilnyana (Mulwala) Lachlan Downs Organic farmers (Rankin Springs) 1. Boatrock west (red soil): east side was treated with TM21 a couple of years ago whereas west was untreated for crop yield comparison. 2014 the whole Boatrock area was under uniform treatment. 2. Middleplain area: Middleplain has various N treatments in 6 strip trials for 2013/4. 3. Prarie: Native area for comparison of soil carbon content with Middleplain. 4. Native red: Native area for comparison of soil carbon content with Boatrock west area. 1. Cell area: undergoes high intensity (large numbers of animals for 1 day) rotational cell grazing; it contains 16 cells in a block design with differential crops sown into native pastures. All cells have been treated with ‘Nutri-Life Platform’ at the rate of 50kg/ha. No crop sown 2014 due to drought. 2. Uncelled wheat area: Pasture cropping and 2 week rotational grazing is followed in this area. Within this area the farmer moves cattle 80 m every day. Field treated with ‘Nutri-Life Platform’ at the rate of 50kg/ha. No crop sown 2014 due to drought. 3. Native section: A section has been fenced off where the stock has not been for the past 5 yrs. Comparison of cell treatments. Comparison of pasture cropping versus native. Drought 2014. Eurie Eurie (Walgett) 1. College green area: This area was moved over from grazing (never cropped) to cropping in 2012. Not cropped 2013 and 2014 due to drought. 2. Bullock area: pasture area (never cropped). 3. P4 area: cropping since 2004. Originally wheat on wheat production. Now wheat and chickpea rotation. Not cropped 2013 and 2014 due to drought. Crop rotation impact on SOC. Cropping versus native comparison. Merrilong (Yarraman) 1. Dimby 1: Irrigated rotational cropping: wheat-sorghum-sorghum-wheat-cottonwheat. 2. Dimby 5: Irrigated rotational cropping: Sorghum-corn-sorghum-wheat-sorghumwheat. 3. Willows: no-till for over 20 yrs. Crop rotation comparison and no-till versus history of tillage comparison. 6 The Plantation (Bundella) 1. Brigalow area: New country. Sorghum 2013/14. 2. Pasture area: Grazing area that has never been cultivated. 3. Gurley area: Old area- it contains contour banks and stubble retention for cover. It has been cultivated since the 1940’s. No-till versus history of tillage comparison. Cropping versus native comparison. Kambodia (Moree) 1. New area: This country has been cropped for the past 12-15 years. It has been undergoing stubble retention and no till. 2. Across rail: this section of new country undergoes the same cropping pattern. 3. Old area: this country has been cropped for 65 years. Wheat 2014 harvested Nov 1.0 t/ha. 4. Pasture area: Bench mark for soil carbon in native country for comparison with new/old country. In 2014:Gypsum treatment and control was applied in ‘Old’. Wheat stubble bailing/removal trial in ‘Across Rail’. Livingston (Moree) 1. Airport site: this site dry land conventionally cultivated cropping country. Not sown 2014 due to drought. 2. No till site: this country is dryland with 25 years of no-till cropping. Not sown 2014 due to drought. 3. Pasture: Benchmark for soil carbon in native country No-till versus history of tillage comparison. Cropping versus native comparison. Wilgo (Mulwala) 1. Blackstump area: Canola in 2014. Variable-rate from aircart in 2015. 2. Two Tanks area: Canola in 2014 Variable-rate from aircart in 2015. 3. Clearview Front area: Faba beans with a nil treatment applied in 2013. Wheat in 2014 and monitoring impact of Faba beans vs no Faba beans. PATHWAYS TO INCREASED SOIL CARBON CONTENT Improved crop productivity x x x x No-till farming Nitrogen fixing plants Perennial crops and crop rotation Precision agriculture Soil amelioration x x Organic amendments Physical & Chemical amendments Figure 3: Summary of pathways for increasing SOC by different management practices to be explored. 7 Methods Soil sampling design A targeted sampling scheme was devised for each trial site using broad-scale soil gammaradiometric data, landscape terrain information and where available, historic soil or crop yield maps. The sampling schemes were designed to help ensure the full extent of SOC variability at a site was sampled for the baseline study and subsequent monitoring for changes in SOC at the end of the project (Figure 4). An example of the data used in the sampling design process for a field is shown in Figure 5 and the resulting sampling scheme is shown in Figure 6. Soil sample sites were discussed with farmers (Figure 7) and were extracted to a depth of 30cm using a hydraulic coring rig mounted on an ATV fitted with high accuracy GPS navigation capabilities (Figure 8). This depth range is in line with requirements for Australia to report any changes in SOC levels under the Kyoto Protocol. A single 0-90cm core was taken for morphological description and the measurement of profile soil properties. The profile properties were also used to parameterise the APSIM software used in greenhouse gas predictions at each site. Data layers (as available) Crop yield, soil ECa, elevation, gamma radiometric total count (TC) and predicted 0 -30cm soil carbon content. k-means clustering conducted on the layers to form soil sampling strata Random sampling within strata Cropping fields: A minimum of 10 samples (0-30cm) were taken from each field. Depending on treatments, a maximum of five of the sampling points were randomly chosen for duplicate sampling. Pasture areas: A minimum of 10 samples (0-30cm) were taken from each designated pasture area. Given the generally smaller size of the pasture areas, on most farms the sampling comprised 5 sets of duplicate samples. Soil profiles: A single core (0-90cm) was taken for morphological description from each cropping field. Figure 4: Summary of sampling design process. 8 (b) (a) Total count High : 74.6347 Elevation (m) High : 463.004 Low : 70.1068 Low : 417.288 Ü (c) (d) Wheat yield (t/ha)_Brigalow High : 5.99914 Low : 2.39054 Sorghum yield (t/ha)_Brigalow High : 7.39224 Low : 1.45308 Figure 5: The data available for designing the sampling scheme in Brigalow paddock. Elevation (a), gamma radiometric total count (b) wheat yield (c), and sorghum yield (d). Figure 6: 10 sampling classes with random sampling site locations for Brigalow paddock. 9 (a) (b) Figure 7: (a) David Brownhill ‘Merrilong’ discusses soil sampling design with Brett Whelan (University of Sydney); (b) Controlled traffic, no-till farming on ‘The Plantation’ (Bundella). Figure 8: DGPS-guided soil sampling rig. 10 Laboratory analysis Soil sample preparation Full description of soil profiles was conducted at the Precision Agriculture Laboratory, University of Sydney. Each soil sample was air-dried at 400C and weighed. Soil samples were gently broken down by hand, and coarse root and leaf material was removed with the help of tweezers with precaution to avoid soil loss. The soil sample was ground and sieved to less than 2-mm, ground soil was weighed again and any unground material >2mm was weighed as gravel. Soil measurements Soil profile morphology Properties measured from each soil profile core (0-90cm) included discernible soil layers and their thickness, colour, texture and the accumulation of compounds such as carbonates and organic matter (see Figure 9). The soil morphological properties were described in accordance with the Australian Soil and Land Survey Field Handbook. Soil chemical properties Soil from the profiles at each site were anyalysed using XRay Fluorescence to provide farmers with more detailed information on the representative soil profiles (see Figure 10). Soil Organic Carbon (SOC ) A 60g subsample was taken from each homogenised soil sample, and any noticeable fine root/plant material and charcoal was removed. The subsample was ground to less than .53 mm using an automatic porcelain grinder. Any carbonate was chemically removed by excess 5% H2SO3 solution on a hot plate in a fume cabinet. The residual soil was washed with de-ionised water 3 times and measured for carbon by Leco C analyses and results reported as % SOC on an oven-dry (1050C) basis. SOC stock (SCS) Soil carbon stocks are calculated on a constant depth basis as the soil in this project has been sampled at a regional scale which encompasses different soil types and management/landuse contributing to large variability in soil bulk densities. Therefore, SOC stocks at 0-30 cm depth increment for each soil sample were calculated using the following formula: = × × × 11 Eq. 1 Where, is the soil carbon stock at 0-30 cm depth in Mg C/ha, is the SOC % in (mg C/100 g soil), is the depth in cm, is the bulk density (Mg/m3), and is the gravel corrected soil mass (g >2 mm/g soil). Soil phosphatase activity (APA) The measurement of APA was used as an estimate of biological activity in the soil. APA was assayed using the method of Tabatabai and Bremmer (1969). This includes calorimetric estimation of pnitrophenol released by incubating 1 g of soil at 370C for 1 hour with 0.25 ml toluene, 4 ml universal buffer set at pH 6.5, and 1 ml of p-nitrophenyl phosphatase solution in an Erlenmeyer flask. After incubation 1 ml of 0.5M calcium chloride and 4 ml of 0.5M sodium hydroxide was added to the Erlenmeyer flask and swirled to stop the reaction. The soil suspension was then filtered through Whatman No. 42, and transferred to a transparent cuvette and the absorbance of the yellow colour was measured with a calorimeter at 400 nm. A control was prepared for each sample whereby the process described for assay of phosphatase activity was followed but the addition of 1ml p-nitrophenyl phosphatase solution was made after addition of 1 ml of 0.5M calcium chloride and 4 ml of 0.5M sodium hydroxide to halt any reaction. This enabled the absorbance of the materials without any reaction to be measured. The final absorbance reading for the sample was obtained by subtracting the absorbance measured for the control from the absorbance measured for the reacted samples. The absorbance was converted to concentration of p-nitrophenol produced using a calibration equation built from measuring the absorbance of solutions containing 0, 10, 20, 30, 40 and 50 μg of p-nitrophenol. Where the colour intensities for the filtrate was more than that of 50 μg of pnitrophenol, the filtrate diluted with water to bring the absorbance within calibration range. Chemical reaction: + !"!"#$#% %&'(% ) (,-) + (Phosphate) = Disodium salt of p-Nitrophenyl phosphate (phosphate monoester) R-OH = p-nitrophenol (alcohol) - yellow colour intensity reflects the amount of phosphatase Statistical Assessment of soil data Summary statistics (mean, standard deviation and CV) was used to describe the measured soil properties for site, farm and regional scale data. To determine the spatial dependence, spherical variogram models were fitted to the observed SOC (0-30 cm). These variograms can be used to determine the expected scale of spatial variability for SOC at the farm scale. There were insufficient data to fit independent variograms for each paddock. 12 Figure 9: Soil morphology and texture analysis at the Precision Agriculture Laboratory. Figure 10: XRay Fluorescence (XRF) analysis for soil elemental properties at the Precision Agriculture Laboratory. Abating greenhouse gas emissions from soils A range of management practices, many which were beyond those that the collaborating farmers had already put in place, were assessed for their potential contribution to greenhouse gas abatement. Carbon sequestration and nitrous oxide emissions were considered because sequestering carbon in soils is not the only path to abating greenhouse gas emissions from soils. Nitrous oxide, a potent greenhouse gas with approximately 300 times the global warming potential of carbon dioxide, is 13 emitted from soils. Nitrous oxide emissions are driven by soil carbon, soil nitrate, water and temperature levels. The interaction between soil carbon and nitrous oxide makes it important to consider both carbon sequestration and nitrous oxide emissions when assessing the net greenhouse gas abatement potential of different management practices. Sufficient data were available from eight of the participating farms for this part of the study. These farms represent a wide variety of climates, soils, crops and practices in the NSW Australian grains industry (Table 2). Field histories gathered for the participating farms for the period 2008 to 2014 (described in Appendices 2-9) and soil sampling data and operational information for 2013 and 2015 formed the basis for an analysis of the greenhouse gas abatement potential of different management practices. The analysis was undertaken using the Agricultural Production Systems sIMulator (APSIM), a comprehensive farming systems model with a proven capacity to predict carbon sequestration and nitrous oxide emissions as well as crop growth and management (Holzworth et al., 2014). The APSIM approach is as follows: Configure and test APSIM to give realistic predictions of yields and other relevant variables for possible historical (termed ‘baseline’) cropping systems on the farms. Develop scenarios describing potential changes to cropping systems that farmers could adopt to reduce greenhouse gas emissions from soils. Predict the change in greenhouse gas emissions (soil organic carbon sequestration, nitrous oxide emissions reduction) for scenarios relative to the baseline systems using APSIM simulations. Configuration of the APSIM model The APSIM model APSIM (Holzworth et al., 2014) v 7.5 was parameterised with the climate, soil/crop properties, and management practices used at each of the eight farms. APSIM was configured with modules for soil carbon and nitrogen (APSIM-SoilN; Probert et al., 1998; Thorburn et al., 2010), soil water dynamics (APSIM-SoilWat; Probert et al., 1998), soil temperature (APSIM-SoilTemp2, following Campbell, 1985), residue (APSIM-SurfaceOM; Probert et al., 1998; Thorburn et al., 2001), and crop growth (Holzworth et al., 2014). 14 Table 2: Location, rainfall, soils, crops for the case study farm sites. Case study farm Paddock Local region Location Mean rainfall (mm/yr) Dominant soils Winter 1 Crops Eurie Eurie P4 Walgett -29.947069, 479 Grey vertosol Wt, Cp, 148.275267 Kambodia Across Rail Moree Plains -29.391452, 150.0277 618 Grey vertosol Wt Kambodia New Moree Plains -29.400282, 618 Grey vertosol Wt, Cp, Cn, 593 Black vertosol By,Cp, Wt 593 Black vertosol Cp, Wt 451 Red chromosol Wt 150.028065 Livingston Airport Moree Plains -29.499608, 149.848437 Summer 1 crops Ct Livingston JKL No Till Moree Plains -29.510928, Lachlan Downs Wheat Carrathool -33.625808, Kilnyana Boatrock Berrigan -35.789855, 145.964108 445 Red ferrosol Wt, Ot, Cn, By Kilnyana Middleplain Berrigan -35.803714, 145.913471 445 Grey vertosol Wt, Cn, By Warili Buttenshaw Forbes -33.435097, 147.47795 443 Brown sodosol Wt, Cn, Sg Warili Cattleyard Forbes -33.430749, 443 Brown sodosol Wt, Ln, Cn Sg 149.848437 146.011537 147.47795 Sg Merrilong Dimby1 Liverpool Plains -31.492999, 150.277746 603 Black vertosol Wt Sg Merrilong Dimby5 Liverpool Plains -31.50953, 150.291233 603 Brown vertosol Wt Sg, Mz Merrilong Willows Liverpool Plains -31.52875, 603 Brown vertosol Wt Sg, Sn Berrigan -35.84075, 502 Grey vertosol Wt, Cn 502 Grey vertosol Wt, Fb Wilgo Blackstump 150.19875 145.908607 Wilgo Clearview Berrigan -35.862487, 145.92186 1 Wt, wheat; By, barley; Cp, chickpea; Cn, canola; Ot, oats; Ln, lucerne; Fb, faba bean; Sg, sorghum; Ct, cotton; Mz, maize; Sn, sunflower. APSIM soil modules APSIM-SoilN and APSIM-SoilWat were parameterised with data collected from each field, supplemented by data representative of local soils that had been previously sampled for other projects and were available in the APSoil database (http://www.apsim.info/Products/APSoil.aspx). The data taken from APSoil included the soil water characteristics, crop lower limits, bulk density, 15 and soil water conductivity for each soil layer, as well as runoff curve numbers and first and second stage evaporation coefficients. Actual SOC measured in the soil profile to 1 metre at each field was used to parameterise soil organic carbon content in the APSIM model. Measured soil pH values were also used to parameterise the APSIM soil pH. Initial soil mineral nitrogen was notionally set at 10.5 kg/ha in the soil profile for nitrate-N and 0.36 kg/ha for ammonium-N. Initial soil water was set to 15 % of maximum available soil water. APSIM crop modules Simulated cropping rotations for the parameterisation and long-term parameterisation simulations were based on actual crop rotations for the eight farms from the last two to seven years. For three sites, the most recent cropping rotation grown on the farm was not considered to be a likely longterm rotation. Thus for the scenarios a region-appropriate general crop rotation was simulated for the Across Rail and New paddocks at the Kambodia farm and for the Blackstump paddock at the Wilgo farm. Crops were modelled using default parameters for varieties grown at the case study farms or commonly used local varieties. Agronomic details of crop management including plant density, fertiliser type, rates and timing, sowing depth and sowing window, were based on actual management practices at the farms or general agronomic practices for the region. Climate Climate data were obtained from the SILO data base (Jeffrey et al. 2001) for weather stations close to the farms. Each 100 year period was composed of a recent 50 year period of climate data that was repeated twice. The 50 year periods commenced either in 1964 or 1965. For example, the 19142013 climate file consisted of the 1964-2013 climate record repeated for the 1914-1963 period. Model parameterisation, validation, and operation Parameterisation simulations For the parameterisation simulations, a the crop rotation practice recorded for the last two to seven years at the 15 fields from the eight farms was simulated. If the first crop rotation was a winter crop, simulations were started on the 1st of November in the prior year prior in order to provide a run-in prior to crop planting. If the first crop was a summer crop, the simulations were started on the first day of the year of the first crop. Two simulations were modelled. One simulation used general management rules (e.g. average fertiliser application rate for a specific crop), while the other used 16 specific management rules that occurred at the site (e.g. the actual fertiliser amount applied to a specific crop in a given year). Validation of the model performance was undertaken through comparison of simulated yield from both the general and specific management simulations to: (1) the measured yield at each farm, and (2) the average yields from 1992 -2010 for the statistical local area (SLA; roughly equivalent to local shires or district councils; Australian Bureau of Statistics, 2010). Measured grain yields were compared to simulated grain yield weights at 13 percent moisture. Long-term parameterisation simulations The general management scenarios were then simulated for approximately 50 years (dependent on crop rotation) to assess long-term crop, water, and carbon dynamics. Cumulative water inputs from rainfall and irrigation was compared to total water losses via evapotranspiration, runoff and deep drainage. Soil organic carbon was assessed for its long-term stability. The scenarios Practices that sequester carbon and mitigate greenhouse gas emissions have been well documented (e.g. Sanderman et al., 2010; Snyder et al., 2009; Johnson et al., 2007). For the farms in this study, practices with the potential to provide greenhouse gas abatement include: x Management of the nitrogen in fertilisers and residues (to mitigate nitrous oxide emissions), and x Increasing organic matter inputs by increasing crop size/duration or by adding organic matter to sequester soil carbon (to reduce atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide). Accordingly, scenarios were developed (Table 3) to be applied at all sites to demonstrate the effect of alternative practices on greenhouse gas emissions. Recent practices on the farms included stubble retention, which is represented by the No Burn scenario. This scenario reflects the general management practices at the sites (e.g. fertiliser rates, sowing and harvesting dates) and is deemed to be the ‘baseline’ scenario, against which all alternative scenarios are compared. Some alternative scenarios were developed that burn stubble (Burn, Burn+N, Burn-N) as this can reduce nitrous oxide emissions. Stubble is retained in all other scenarios as this can enhance carbon sequestration. The nitrogen fertiliser rate was varied to 75 and 125% from the No Burn scenario in combination with stubble retention or burning, in the Burn+N, Burn-N, No Burn+N, No Burn-N scenarios. Inputs of organic matter (in addition to stubble retention) were applied in the Manure, Summer Crop, and Pasture scenarios. In the Summer Crop and Combination scenarios, a sacrificial summer cowpea crop 17 was sown in place of bare summer fallows (WANTFA, 2015). In the Pasture and Combination scenarios, field peas were sown for one winter fallow per crop rotation in rotations with one or more winter fallows. At some case study sites, the cropping rotation did not include a winter fallow. Thus for those sites, the Pasture and Combination scenarios could not be simulated. Table 3: The No Burn scenario which represents typical management for the sites and alternative scenarios modelled for the case study farms. No. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Name Burn No Burn Burn+N Burn-N No Burn+N No Burn-N Manure Summer Crop Pasture Combination Description Stubble burnt, bare summer fallow Stubble retained, bare summer fallow Stubble burnt, 125% of baseline nitrogen fertiliser rate Stubble burnt, 75% of baseline nitrogen fertiliser rate Stubble retained, 125% of baseline nitrogen fertiliser rate Stubble retained, 75% of baseline nitrogen fertiliser rate -1 Stubble retained, 5 t ha manure applied every 5 years Stubble retained, summer cowpea crop in place of fallow Stubble retained, field pea pasture in place of one winter fallow Stubble retained + cowpea summer crop + field pea pasture All scenarios were simulated for a 100 year period. Simulations were started at the beginning of a year. Each simulation was repeated using two different start years (1914 or 1915) in order to capture seasonal variation in rainfall and temperature that affect carbon sequestration, nitrous oxide emissions, and yields. Scenarios were assessed for carbon sequestration, nitrous oxide emissions, and net global warming potential (described in the section: Calculation of global warming potential) for each site at 25 and 100 years into the simulation period. These time periods were selected as they are the carbon storage permanence periods outlined in the Emissions Reduction Fund guidelines (Department of the Environment 2014). Annual carbon sequestration, nitrous oxide emissions, and global warming potential are provided for each site in Appendices 2-9. Calculation of global warming potential Global warming potential quantifies the contribution of different greenhouse gases emitted from a natural or anthropogenic practice to global warming. The greenhouse gases carbon dioxide and nitrous oxide are the main gases of interest in this study, but have different global warming potential. Calculating global warming potential permits the combined effect of greenhouse gases to be compared by converting them to a common unit, carbon dioxide equivalent (CO2e; IPCC, 2013). The factors used to convert each greenhouse to its global warming potential depend on the 18 cumulative radiative forcing of the gas and the time period over which the climate effects are of concern. Global warming potentials were therefore calculated as follows using IPCC (2013) factors: CO2e from sequestered carbon = (%/0# (# 123 41 (%/0# (# 1 CO2e from nitrous oxide-N emissions = Eq. 2 (%/0# (# 63 2 4298 (%/0# (# 6 Eq. 3 Net global warming potential = CO2e from sequestered carbon + CO2e from nitrous oxide-N emissions Eq. 4 Results & Discussion Soil Morphology Most common soil profiles found in Australia generally contain A, B and C horizons. The A horizon (topsoil) can be further sub-ordered into A1 or A2 based on different colour and organic matter content. The main horizon of a soil profile is usually the B horizon (subsoil) which often consists of higher concentrations of clay, iron, and aluminum and is often a different colour compared to the horizon above or below. The B horizon can be sub-ordered into B1, B2 or B3 horizons based on colour and soil development. The C horizon usually comprises partially weathered parent material. The soil morphology and important attributes of each horizon for the trial sites are shown in Table 4. Soil type and texture Figure 11 classifies the soil texture at each trial site on each farm by plotting the average clay, silt and sand content (0-30cm) on an Australian texture triangle. Given the geographical spread of the participating farms, it was not unexpected that the soil texture/type was quite variable between farms, but the sampling confirmed that large spatial variability of soil texture can be found within different areas of the same farm. Variation in soil type/texture may directly influence the yield potential of a site by contributing to the variation in nutrient storage and availability, moisture holding and transport capacity and soil stability (Mott, 1988). In general an increase in clay content increases these attributes at a site and would be expected to lead to an increase in SOC levels and an ability to cycle more nitrogen compounds. 19 Table 4: Soil type, horizon descriptions and depths, SOC and other chemical properties in the soil profile for each cropping paddock. N = nitrogen, K = Potassium, Ca= Calcium, Mn = Manganese, Fe= Iron, Zn = Zinc. Farm Paddock (Location) (Soil type) Merribee (Binya) Horizon (cm) SOC % CaCl Pump A11 1.74 5.4 (Grey Chromosol) (0-5) 0.88 A12 pH N% C/N ratio Clay % K Ca Mn Fe Zn ppm ppm ppm ppm ppm 0.17 10.43 43.2 9390 1207 354 22387 56.8 6.6 0.06 13.83 65.4 11384 3033 573 33457 68.2 0.78 5.8 0.04 21.44 61.9 11468 11332 427 32763 67.8 1.73 5 0.16 11.11 43.3 963 730 283 26708 59.5 1.97 6.5 0.12 17.21 43 9377 945 448 27553 60.1 0.50 6.2 0.06 8.75 63 10558 2597 408 35993 68.1 0.82 5.8 0.04 21.43 59.9 10330 4283 441 31781 63.6 3.45 6 0.36 9.73 49.9 10741 1661 406 25425 68.3 1.20 5.2 0.12 9.87 59.8 10536 2090 492 25369 62.2 0.53 5.7 0.06 8.46 66.2 11821 2142 487 32618 70.4 0.46 6.6 0.04 12.19 62.8 12719 5036 540 34103 75.9 1.18 6.4 0.09 13.43 39.5 5917 5429 1040 53044 88 0.95 6.5 0.05 18.07 65.81 5575 8115 1031 48924 76.2 0.92 6.9 0.05 20.46 73.3 9653 9214 750 42818 80.9 1.22 6.8 0.07 16.52 46.1 7505 9955 969 53904 86.5 1.33 6.6 0.05 27.35 43.2 6408 11531 972 49617 74.8 1.19 7.3 0.06 19.28 68.6 7284 13864 998 49526 77.2 (5-38) B2 (38-70) Merribee (Brown Chromosol) A1 (0-17) A2 (17-50) B21 (50-70) B22 (70-90) Wet A11 (Brown Dermosol) (0-5) A12 (5-23) B1 (23-52) B2 (52-70) The Plantation (Bundella) Brigalow A1 (Black Vertosol) (0-10) B21 (10-47) B22 (47-80) Gurley (Brown Vertosol) A1 (0-12) B21 (12-85) B22 (85-90) Merrilong Dimby 1 A1 (0-5) 1.45 6.4 0.13 11.52 40 10655 10008 1017 80886 108 (Yarraman) (Black Vertosol) B21 1.07 6.2 0.09 11.96 59.4 8634 11048 1248 78954 98 1.07 6.2 0.09 12.37 72.3 8091 10259 1073 73019 87 1.16 7.7 0.04 28.27 73.2 7496 18966 1066 75730 86 (5-20) B22 (20-70) B3 (70-90) 20 Dimby 5 A11 (Brown Vertosol) (0-5) A12 1.11 6.8 0.09 12.42 39.9 7367 16272 1147 76894 97 1.18 6.5 0.07 16.95 53.2 65.74 21353 1116 73096 89 1.11 6.2 0.06 19 62.8 73.85 24683 1105 74317 85 1.12 7.3 0.05 24.81 66.6 7487 22862 1122 72393 91 1.05 5.8 0.08 12.59 43.3 7994 5560 1194 84594 145 1 6.5 0.07 14.91 43 7925 6091 1394 77480 89 1.27 6.2 0.07 17.43 63.1 12873 1443 75070 85 1.23 7.1 0.06 21.68 59.9 6874 76243 1145 64615 82 0.98 5.4 0.05 17.77 50 1447 2146 895 22298 49.6 0.84 6.6 0.04 22.49 56.6 955 2456 580 18862 45.7 0.62 6.6 0.04 14.61 56.6 1568 2256 532 21049 45.9 0.62 6.9 0.03 18.89 65.9 1007 3395 645 23784 52.8 1.43 6.3 0.12 12.02 32.2 11932 2568 499 24924 60.2 0.88 6.5 0.08 11.17 49.8 11378 1620 472 3379 66.8 0.70 6.9 0.04 16.32 49.6 11310 5437 551 32807 69.7 0.58 7 0.03 17.05 52.5 8200 9231 501 31790 75.6 1.14 6.5 0.11 10.36 33.3 13378 2075 722 28207 65.7 1.19 6.2 0.08 14.44 49.8 12638 2019 662 26015 66.3 0.65 6.9 0.05 12 56.3 12307 1911 585 35489 69.7 0.42 7.2 0.03 12.83 49.9 11090 2462 665 32244 62.8 1.17 6.5 0.10 11.82 69.2 16738 1315 299 37361 81.6 0.52 6.8 0.07 7.55 72.8 18259 7508 456 39650 88.6 0.50 6.8 0.05 10.86 75.6 17225 1278 305 36940 78.8 (5-20) B21 (20-75) B22 (75-90) Willows A11 (Brown Vertosol) (0-5) A12 (5-48) B21 7915 (48-73) B22 (73-90) Livingston (Moree) Airport (Black Vertosol) A1 (0-18) AB (18-80) No-till (Black Vertosol) A1 (0-15) AB (15-90) Warili (Forbes) Old cattle yard A11 (Red Sodosol) A12 (0-5) (5-46) B21 (46-80) B22 (80-90) Buttenshaws A11 (Red Sodosol) (0-5) A12 (5-20) B21 (20-63) B22 (63-90) Wilgo (Mulwala) Blackstump (Grey Vertosol) A1 (0-10) B21 (10-55) B22 (55-75) 21 B3 0.79 7.3 0.04 22.52 73.0 18373 7466 388 35543 85.8 1.49 7.2 0.07 52.21 56.6 174497 2527 582 34916 79.1 0.50 6.6 0.04 8.60 69.3 20412 32380 286 34253 85.7 0.28 6.8 0.03 7.48 66.6 12176 1880 252 17304 56.7 1.30 6.8 0.09 14.20 43.3 12933 1984 286 19568 57.3 0.43 6.5 0.05 8.60 63.3 15686 1307 276 29908 74 0.30 6.2 0.03 8.68 63.3 13795 2422 397 26771 71.5 0.32 7.6 0.03 10.57 76.1 15959 8387 3384 27242 75 1.80 5.7 0.04 45 16.6 8200 871 404 16654 41.8 0.93 7.6 0.06 14.77 49.9 9458 27384 441 25671 53.8 0.68 7.7 0.01 19.09 49.8 9632 1522 315 31444 62.4 0.81 5.9 0.09 8.81 33.9 12819 NA 412 26300 60.4 0.51 7.2 0.07 7.64 65.8 18116 4695 406 39636 82 0.48 7.6 0.06 8.37 66.4 17700 2885 445 35338 81.4 0.96 6.2 0.07 14.26 56.3 12323 9350 561 33843 77.7 0.88 6.5 0.05 17.81 59.4 11666 24990 740 33171 78.7 0.88 6.8 0.04 23.47 53.2 11565 9101 610 33136 76 A1 (0-8) 0.79 6.9 0.07 11.21 59.9 12611 5806 734 40641 83.8 B21 0.53 7.2 0.04 12.33 62.5 12262 7145 728 38469 82 0.50 6.3 0.03 14.52 66.4 12073 9463 789 38444 85.4 0.60 7.3 0.03 20 49.2 1143 1521 521 22439 30.21 0.65 6.9 0.03 21.67 59.9 1045 5420 753 22572 19.53 0.73 6.3 0.05 14.6 46.6 1003 1973 671 20384 46.7 (75-90) Two Tanks A1 (Grey Vertosol) (0-26) B21 Clearview Front (26-72) (Grey Vertosol) (72-90) B22 A1 (0-10) B21 Boatrock (10-56) (Red Ferrosol) B22 (56-80) B3 (80-90) A1 (0-20) Kilnyana (Mulwala) B1 Middleplain (Grey Vertosol) (20-64) B21 (64-90) A1 (0-12) B21 College Green (Brown Vertosol) (12-66) B22 (66-90) A1 (0-15) Eurie Eurie (Walgett) B21 P4 (Brown Vertosol) New (Grey Vertosol) (14-66) B22 (66-90) (8-70) B22 (70-90) A1 (0-10) Kambodia (Moree) AB Old (Grey Vertosol) 22 (10-90) A1 (0-12) B21 Cell (Red Chromosol) 0.62 7.2 0.04 15.5 53.1 9995 1500 829 15943 41.7 0.82 6.9 0.02 41 59.5 8645 2013 602 23910 51 0.82 6.3 0.08 10.31 43.2 10323 272 542 35478 66.3 0.63 6.5 0.07 9 43 11028 428 461 39482 67.8 0.89 6.74 0.07 12.71 63.1 11409 11988 448 36710 67.8 0.43 7.9 0.04 10.75 59.9 12550 40125 508 36962 68.1 A1 (0-5) 0.81 5.8 0.07 11.57 43.3 10265 1578 776 31638 60.8 B21 0.51 5.6 0.06 8.5 43 10283 887 550 35993 59.5 0.33 6.44 0.04 8.25 63.1 9591 1343 426 35354 59.3 0.55 7.64 0.03 18.33 59.9 9843 7019 390 32304 63 (12-52) B22 (52-82) A1 (0-5) Lachlan Downs Wheat (Rankin Springs) (Red Chromosol) B21 (5-40) B22 (40-66) B3 (66-99) (5-20) B22 (20-68) B3 (68-90) For example, on ‘Kilnyana’ there were two distinct soil texture classifications catalogued as Sandy Clay and Clay, which had average clay contents of 35% and 77% respectively. Such vast differences in physical properties would be expected to require different soil management approaches and influence the potential for carbon storage and nitrogen emission within-farm. However, there were also a number farms where the sand content of the soil remained relatively constant at the trial sites but the differences in texture were driven by less dramatic changes in the relative amounts of silt and clay. For example, the three trial sites at ‘Wilgo’ had average sand contents of 22%, 22% and 24% and silt contents that ranged from 7% to 13%. These changes might generally be considered to have less potential impact on the potential for carbon storage and nitrogen emission within-farm. 23 Clay (%) Sand (%) Figure 11: Plot of average soil texture for the soil samples in each trial area on each farm. Texture component symbols are: Cl = clay, Si = silt, Sa = sand, Lo = loam. Initial soil carbon content (SOC) Table 5 reports the average SOC for each site as measured in February/March 2013, each sie management category and each whole farm. Figure 12 displays the whole-farm data and shows that the farms in the northern biogeoregions have in general registered the highest overall SOC. The notable exceptions to this generalisation being ‘Merribee’ at Binya, ‘Kambodia’ (Moree) and ‘Eurie Eurie’ (Walgett). The farms with higher SOC are also generally the most variable (Table 5, Figure 12), which may have implications for sampling design and intensity in any long-term monitoring/auditing of SOC content (0-30cm). Greater variability is likely to require more direct sampling or more sophisticated stratification/modelling of SOC in an area using prior information to obtain accurate baseline and change-over-time estimates of SOC, which as pointed out by Singh et al. (2012) may increase the cost of estimating SOC at the field scale. 24 Table 5: The results of baseline sampling in 2013 for SOC (30 cm) at each trial site. Annotation with the same letter within each farm means values are not significantly different. Farm (Location) Paddock (management category) SOC (%) Merribee Pump (cropping) 1.37a (Binya) Merribee (cropping) 1.31a Wet (cropping) 1.34a Native 1.79b The Plantation (Bundella) Brigalow (NT cropping) 1.33a Gurley (long term cropping) Merrilong (Yarraman) Livingston (Moree) Warili (Forbes) Average SOC (%) cropping = blue, native/pasture = yellow Whole-farm average SOC (%) and CV (%) 1.34 1.57 1.79 (16.4) 1.25a 1.29 1.50 Pasture 1.70b 1.7 (13.7) Dimby 1 (Irrigated cropping) 1.09a 1.12 Dimby 5 (Irrigated cropping) 1.16a 1.33 Willows (NT cropping) 1.10a (27.3) Native 1.53b Airport (long-term cropping) 1.02a No till 1.06a 1.04 1.25 Pasture 1.46b 1.46 (14.7) Buttenshaws (Irrigated cropping) 1.09a 1.09 Old cattle yard 1.32b 1.27 (10.8) 1.09 1.09 Summary Native SOC is significantly higher than cropping. Pasture SOC is significantly higher than cropping. Native SOC is significantly higher than cropping. 1.53 1.18 Pasture SOC is significantly higher than cropping. Perrenial pasture has higher SOC. (perennial pasture) Scrubby lane (native) 1.22b Wilgo Blackstump (cropping) 1.01b (Mulwala) Two Tanks (cropping) 1.10ab Kilnyana (Mulwala) Eurie Eurie (Walgett) Kambodia (Moree) Lachlan Downs Middleplain has significantly lower SOC. Clearview Front (cropping) 1.19a Boatrock west (cropping) 1.03a Middleplain (cropping) 0.81b 0.96 0.97 Native red (native) 1.09a 0.98 (12.3) Prairie (perennial pasture) 0.87a College green (new cropping) 0.96a P4 (longer-term cropping) 0.91a 0.94 0.96 Bullock (native pasture) 0.97a 0.97 (12.8) New (cropping) 0.70a Across rail (No-till cropping) 0.66a Old (long-term cropping) 0.73a 0.70 0.86 Pasture 1.01b 1.01 (19.7) Cell (cropping) 0.83a Wheat (cropping) (Rankin Springs) Native 25 (17.5) Clearview has signicantly higher SOC than Blackstump. 0.76b 0.80 0.78 0.76b 0.76 (12.2) No significant difference in SOC between cropped and pasture. Pasture SOC is significantly higher than cropping. Cell treated area has higher SOC Figure 12: Box plots of the average SOC (solid black line) and variability in SOC (size of each box) for the 10 farms in top 30 cm for samples taken in 2013. Spatial variability in initial SOC Table 6 describes the model parameters for the semivariograms fitted to the baseline SOC data on each farm. The semivariograms are shown in Figure 13. These data describe the spatial dependence of SOC content across the farms. The sill values (C0+C1; the height of the semivariogram) depict the overall variation to be found. The nugget values (C0; the intercept of the semivariogram with the Y axis) represent small distance variation. The structure (C1) represents the amount of variation that can be spatially modelled and the range value is the distance at which the maximum variability (sill) is reached. In effect it is the distance to which samples of SOC can be related. The data confirms that the total variation in SOC changes between farms and that the spatial relationships between SOC samples changes across farms. This information will impact on the design of universal SOC sampling schemes, with the average semivariogram (Figure 13) potentially useful in determining future sampling spacing. These baseline results on the levels and variability of SOC across the farms suggest that: x in general, cropping activities on these farms may have reduced/limited the SOC content relative to the native/pasture areas. Native and pasture areas are most likely to contribute to higher and more stable levels of SOC due to reduced soil disturbance and sustained vegetative cover. This general result is in line with previous studies across south-east NSW (e.g. Chan, 2008; Chan et al. 2011). Previous work (Toole, 2009) has also suggested that in lower rainfall areas where the SOC is expected to be lower, the reduction in SOC due to the introduction of cropping may be relatively smaller than higher rainfall areas. The results here from Walgett and Rankin Springs appear to confirm this pattern; 26 x while there is some evidence that fields under no-till management have a slightly higher SOC level when compared to fields with a longer cultivation history, there is no statistically significant difference in SOC on these farms between conventionally cropped and no-till areas. It is generally believed that no-till management would lead to higher crop production and greater quantities of biomass and root exudates entering the carbon cycle (Chan et al, 2009). One possible hypothesis for the results here is that there is an increase in carbon entering the system from no-till management, but the influx of carbon, in conjunction with the improvements in soil structure and moisture regimes provides a priming effect that increases microbial activity and raises the mineralisation of SOC. While they didn’t find a statistically significant result, the work of Cowie et al. (2013) provides evidence that increased microbial activity appears to follow on from increased organic inputs; x the farms with higher SOC also generally display the most variability across the sampled fields. Where variability is high, options for audit sampling and practices to improve SOC content may need to be considered in more detail than more uniform areas; x where crop yield data was available, there were relationships between yield and measured soil properties. In some cases a significant positive relationship between SOC and crop yield was observed which could suggest that an increase in crop production was contributing to greater SOC. However a positive relationship between crop yield and SOC was not consistent throughout the farms, which may be a function of the relatively small number of farms combined with different management practices and considerable soil type variability. Table 6: Farm-scale SOC semivariogram parameters for all the farms. Farm C0 C1 C0+C1 A1 (nugget) (structure) (sill) (range) Nugget Ratio (%) Model Merribee 0.028 0.020 0.048 131.8 58 Spherical The Plantation 0.0005 0.116 0.1165 388.7 0 Spherical Merrilong 0.071 0.014 0.085 103.2 84 Spherical Livingston 0.015 0.019 0.034 907.1 44 Spherical Warili 0 0.037 0.037 564.4 0 Spherical Wilgo 0.011 0.027 0.038 215.1 29 Spherical Kilnyana 0.01 0.002 0.012 238.4 83 Spherical Eurie Eurie 0.005 0.011 0.016 831.0 31 Spherical Kambodia 0.014 0.018 0.032 455.7 44 Spherical Lachlan Down 0 0.006 0.006 451.0 0 Spherical Average 0.01 0.03 0.05 428.6 37 Spherical 27 Figure 13: Variogram for SOC in top 30 cm for samples taken in 2013 for individual farms, model used= Spherical/no of pairs Relationship between soil texture and SOC Using the individual sample site data, SOC and soil texture were then compared to explore the influence of soil texture on SOC. Table 7 shows that SOC was significantly higher in Silty Clay soil across these farms. Soil dominated by coarse soil particles (sand fractions) are generally known to hold less organic matter than soil with greater silt and clay content (finer soil fractions), so it is expected that as the quantity of fine soil fractions increases, so does the potential to store SOC. Heywood and Turpin (2013), among others, have confirmed that increasing soil clay content within a Biogeoregion is often associated with increased SOC. The results presented here suggest that a relatively moderate increase in silt content in soil with a high percentage of fine soil fractions may be related to a significant increase in ability to store SOC. Table 7: Relationship between soil texture and SOC across all farms. Soil texture Silty Clay 28 Cropping and Pasture SOC (%) a 1.34 Cropping SOC (%) 1.51 b 1.11 b 1.03 1.22 b 1.01 b 0.79 Clay 1.02 Sandy Clay 0.95 Pasture SOC (%) a a a a Change in soil carbon (SOC) over time Detailed summary statistics for the SOC and SCS for 2013 and 2015 are provided in Tables 8 and 9 respectively. Overall the soils this project had average SOC (%) and SCS (Mg/ha) in 2013 and 2015 of 1.09%, 42.55 Mg/ha, and 1.01% and 39.17 Mg/ha respectively in the 0-30 cm layer. This data documents a small average decrease over the two year period. This data documents a small average decrease over the two year period. However as can be seen from Table 10, both increases and decreases in SOC and SCS were observed across the individual field sites. To assess the significance of any change in SOC between 2013 and 2015, the standard error from the 2013 measurements were used to calculate the 95% confidence interval for the mean SOC in each individual field and for the mean of all fields. The average SOC and SCS measured between 2013 and 2015 for all the fields combined are not significantly different. Table 11 documents whether the changes in SOC within the individual fields were significantly different between 2013 and 2015. SOC levels in the majority of fields (49%) did not significantly change, 17% rose significantly and 34% decreased significantly. The decreases in SOC can be partly attributed to a below average total rainfall for the period contributing to reduced vegetative input in some areas (especially ‘Livingston’ and ‘Eurie Eurie’). The five fields where SOC significantly increased were either on the Liverpool Plains where rainfall was generally close to average or on fields which had relatively low levels of SOC in 2013.‘ To explore the impact of reduced rainfall on changes in SOC, the change in SOC (Delta SOC calculated as SOC in 2015 minus SOC in 2013) was compared to the two year total rainfall deficit (TRD) from the long-term average (Equation 5) TRD = (Long term average annual rainfall X 2) – (rainfall 2013 + rainfall 2014) Eq. 5 The data is shown in Table 12. A linear relationship between Delta SOC and the TRD was observed across the farms (Figure 14) with a regression model providing a fit of R2 = 0.40. Previous studies (e.g. Toole, 2009) have found lower SOC in lower rainfall areas and the significant decrease in SOC % at ‘Walgett’ and ‘Livingston’ appears to confirm this pattern. 29 Table 8: Soil carbon levels (SOC and SCS) in 2013 (0-30 cm). Soil organic carbon (SOC ) Farm Paddock (Location) Mean Farm SOC (%) s.d. s.e. CV (%) Mean CV (%) Soil carbon stock (SCS) Mean SCS Farm s.d. s.e. CV (%) Mean CV (%) (Mg/ha) Merribee Pump 1.37 0.12 0.03 8.89 16.40 (Binya) Merribee 1.31 0.22 0.06 16.73 47.10 8.62 2.23 18.20 Wet 1.34 0.13 0.03 9.36 49.96 5.37 1.39 10.75 Native 1.79 0.55 0.24 30.63 64.80 20.35 9.10 31.40 The Plantation Gurley 1.25 0.12 0.03 9.67 (Bundella) Brigalow 1.33 0.23 0.06 17.48 51.04 9.51 2.45 18.63 Native 1.70 0.57 0.18 33.53 62.59 21.17 6.70 33.83 Merrilong Dimby 1 1.09 0.28 0.07 25.63 (Yarraman) Dimby 5 1.16 0.29 0.07 24.93 43.43 10.71 2.76 24.66 Willows 1.10 0.24 0.06 21.57 41.22 8.60 2.22 20.86 Native 1.53 0.57 0.25 37.22 53.16 20.45 9.15 38.48 Livingston Airport site 1.02 0.15 0.04 14.92 (Moree) No till site 1.06 0.16 0.04 15.26 Native 1.46 0.18 0.06 12.41 20.23 27.34 14.20 48.91 5.70 1.47 11.66 48.96 5.29 1.37 10.80 40.59 9.20 2.38 22.67 45.34 7.25 1.87 15.99 26.67 14.96 59.99 7.37 2.32 12.28 Old cattle yard 1.32 0.16 0.04 12.00 (Forbes) Buttenshaws 1.09 0.14 0.04 13.10 39.44 7.31 1.89 18.53 Native 1.22 0.09 0.03 7.34 48.98 6.63 2.09 13.54 Wilgo Blackstump 1.01 0.20 0.05 19.37 (Mulwala) Two tanks 1.10 0.17 0.04 15.22 40.26 5.75 1.48 14.29 Clearview 1.19 0.22 0.06 18.89 44.29 8.23 2.12 18.58 Kilnyana Boatrock 1.03 0.17 0.06 16.74 (Mulwala) TM21 1.05 0.12 0.05 11.79 44.73 5.77 2.18 12.89 Middleplain 0.81 0.11 0.03 13.66 30.12 5.12 1.21 17.01 Prarie 0.87 0.08 0.03 9.54 33.99 2.82 0.89 8.29 Native 1.09 0.10 0.03 9.04 42.52 4.59 1.45 10.79 Eurie Eurie College green 0.96 0.16 0.04 17.43 (Walgett) P4 0.91 0.12 0.03 12.86 34.29 5.94 1.53 17.32 Bullock 0.97 0.08 0.02 8.10 36.73 3.41 1.08 9.27 Kambodia Across rail 0.66 0.11 0.03 16.39 (Moree) New 0.70 0.21 0.06 30.17 30.57 8.71 2.51 28.48 Old 0.73 0.12 0.03 15.94 31.05 4.80 1.39 15.47 Native 1.01 0.16 0.05 16.23 43.64 6.40 2.02 14.65 Lachlan Down Celled 0.83 0.08 0.01 9.28 (Rankin Springs) Uncelled 0.76 0.10 0.03 13.68 32.64 5.22 1.65 16.00 Lock 0.70 0.12 0.05 16.84 30.81 4.64 2.07 15.05 Unlock 0.81 0.05 0.02 6.06 35.10 3.09 1.38 8.80 All farms 1.09 0.190.06 16.33 42.55 7.545 2.33 17.23 30 21.09 45.92 7.62 1.96 16.60 Warili Total 18.00 10.80 17.83 12.24 12.80 19.68 11.46 49.53 6.38 1.65 12.89 36.14 7.25 1.87 20.07 43.12 6.93 2.45 16.08 35.47 6.38 1.65 17.99 28.07 4.26 1.23 15.20 37.23 4.18 0.73 11.21 15.42 17.65 13.02 14.86 18.45 12.77 Table 9: Soil carbon levels (SOC and SCS) in 2015 (0-30 cm). Soil organic carbon (SOC ) Farm Paddock (Location) Mean Farm Soil carbon stock (SCS) Mean Farm SOC (%) s.d. s.e. CV (%) Mean CV SCS s.d. s.e. CV (%) Mean CV (%) (Mg/ha) (%) Merribee Pump 1.16 0.09 0.02 7.81 (Binya) Merribee 1.29 0.11 0.03 8.57 45.24 4.35 1.12 9.61 Wet 1.24 0.19 0.05 15.23 47.52 7.99 2.06 16.82 Native 1.34 0.19 0.08 14.06 50.22 6.45 2.88 12.84 The Plantation Gurley NA NA (Bundella) Brigalow 1.57 0.81 0.21 51.77 56.43 28.43 7.34 50.38 Native 2.11 0.96 0.43 45.59 71.89 31.85 14.25 44.31 Merrilong Dimby 1 1.20 0.53 0.14 43.89 (Yarraman) Dimby 5 1.33 0.59 0.15 44.36 43.57 22.62 5.84 51.91 Willows 1.31 0.49 0.13 37.65 48.34 18.15 4.69 37.53 Native 1.55 0.59 0.27 38.38 54.89 20.16 9.02 36.74 Livingston Airport site 0.60 0.05 0.01 8.98 (Moree) No till site 0.60 0.05 0.01 9.16 Native NA NA 11.42 48.68 41.07 16.57 42.41 3.06 0.79 7.22 NA NA NA NA 42.77 19.54 5.05 45.68 26.90 2.59 0.67 9.61 0.93 0.29 0.13 31.58 Old cattle yard 1.25 0.21 0.05 16.78 (Forbes) Buttenshaws 1.18 0.14 0.04 11.69 42.67 5.64 1.46 13.26 Native 1.13 0.17 0.07 14.68 46.33 9.21 4.12 19.89 Wilgo Blackstump 0.72 0.17 0.04 23.33 (Mulwala) Two tanks 0.67 0.12 0.03 18.54 29.05 5.69 1.47 19.60 Clearview 0.76 0.17 0.05 22.87 31.07 7.21 1.86 23.22 Kilnyana Boatrock 0.96 0.09 0.03 9.73 (Mulwala) TM21 1.01 0.11 0.04 11.22 41.81 5.99 2.26 14.33 Middleplain 0.91 0.11 0.03 12.24 34.81 4.14 0.98 11.90 Prarie 0.84 0.14 0.06 16.62 33.48 5.20 2.32 15.53 Native 1.09 0.02 0.01 2.15 42.90 1.98 0.88 4.61 Eurie Eurie College green 0.69 0.09 0.02 13.00 (Walgett) P4 0.78 0.15 0.04 19.20 28.99 6.06 1.56 20.89 Bullock 0.63 0.06 0.03 9.65 25.64 2.48 1.11 9.66 Kambodia Across rail 0.61 0.09 0.03 14.29 (Moree) New 0.82 0.12 0.04 14.85 35.15 5.27 1.52 15.00 Old 0.87 0.09 0.03 10.41 36.59 4.78 1.38 13.07 Native 0.84 0.04 0.02 4.81 34.16 0.45 0.20 1.33 Lachlan Down Celled 0.85 0.09 0.02 10.29 (Rankin Springs) Uncelled 0.80 0.12 0.04 15.60 35.28 5.77 1.83 16.36 Lock 0.77 0.21 0.12 27.39 33.22 9.27 5.35 27.90 Unlock 0.80 0.15 0.09 18.91 33.45 5.76 3.33 17.23 All farms 1.01 0.22 0.07 19.29 39.16 8.39 2.83 19.70 31 47.35 42.97 16.76 27.27 2.86 0.74 10.49 Warili Total 11.63 40.19 12.13 5.43 30.19 14.39 21.58 10.39 13.95 11.09 18.07 46.73 7.70 1.99 16.47 28.15 6.83 1.76 24.26 40.67 4.95 1.75 12.16 26.11 3.55 0.92 13.58 26.41 3.79 1.09 14.33 36.74 4.27 0.76 11.63 16.54 22.36 11.71 14.71 10.93 18.28 Table 10: Soil Carbon change over two years (0-30 cm). Soil organic carbon (SOC ) Farm Paddock (Location) 2013 Soil carbon stock (SCS) 2015 Difference 2013 2015 (%) SOC (%) s.e. SOC s.e. SCS SCS s.e. (Mg/ha) (%) (Mg/ha) s.e. Difference (%) Merribee Pump 1.37 0.03 1.16 0.02 -0.21 48.91 1.47 42.41 0.79 -6.5 (Binya) Merribee 1.31 0.06 1.29 0.03 -0.02 47.10 2.23 45.24 1.12 -1.86 Wet 1.34 0.03 1.24 0.05 -0.1 49.96 1.39 47.52 2.06 -2.44 -0.45 64.80 9.10 50.22 2.88 -14.58 NA NA NA Native 1.79 0.24 1.34 0.08 The Plantation Gurley NA NA NA NA (Bundella) Brigalow 1.33 0.06 1.57 0.21 0.32 51.04 2.45 56.43 7.34 7.47 Native 1.70 0.18 2.11 0.43 0.41 62.59 6.70 71.89 14.25 9.3 Merrilong Dimby 1 1.09 0.07 1.20 0.14 0.11 40.59 2.38 42.77 5.05 2.18 (Yarraman) Dimby 5 1.16 0.07 1.33 0.15 0.17 43.43 2.76 47.45 5.26 4.02 Willows 1.10 0.06 1.31 0.13 0.21 41.22 2.22 48.34 4.69 7.12 Native 1.53 0.25 1.55 0.27 0.02 53.16 9.15 54.89 9.02 1.73 Livingston Airport site 1.02 0.04 0.60 0.01 -0.42 45.34 1.87 26.90 0.67 -18.44 (Moree) No till site 1.06 0.04 0.60 0.01 -0.46 45.92 1.96 27.27 0.74 -18.65 Native 1.46 0.06 0.93 0.13 -0.53 59.99 2.32 40.19 5.43 -19.8 Old cattleyard 1.32 0.04 1.25 0.05 -0.07 49.53 1.65 46.73 1.99 -2.8 Buttenshaws 1.09 0.04 1.18 0.04 0.09 39.44 1.89 42.67 1.36 3.23 Native 1.22 0.03 1.13 0.07 48.98 2.09 46.33 4.12 Warili (Forbes) NA NA NA Wilgo Blackstump 1.01 0.05 0.72 0.04 -0.09 -0.29 36.14 1.87 28.15 1.76 -2.65 -7.99 (Mulwala) Two tanks 1.10 0.04 0.67 0.03 -0.43 40.26 1.48 29.05 1.47 -11.21 Clearview 1.19 0.06 0.76 0.05 -0.43 44.29 2.12 31.07 1.86 -13.22 Kilnyana Boatrock 1.03 0.06 0.96 0.03 -0.07 43.12 2.45 40.67 1.75 -2.45 (Mulwala) TM21 1.05 0.05 1.01 0.04 -0.04 44.73 2.18 41.81 2.26 -2.92 Middleplain 0.81 0.03 0.91 0.03 0.1 30.12 1.21 34.81 0.98 4.69 Prarie 0.87 0.03 0.84 0.06 -0.03 33.99 0.89 33.48 2.32 -0.51 Native 1.09 0.03 1.09 0.01 0 42.52 1.45 42.90 0.88 0.38 Eurie Eurie College green 0.96 0.04 0.69 0.02 -0.27 35.47 1.65 26.11 0.92 -9.36 (Walgett) P4 0.91 0.03 0.78 0.04 -0.13 34.29 1.53 28.99 1.56 -5.3 Bullock 0.97 0.02 0.63 0.03 -0.34 36.73 1.08 25.64 1.11 -11.09 Kambodia Across rail 0.66 0.03 0.61 0.03 -0.05 28.07 1.23 26.41 1.09 -1.66 (Moree) New 0.70 0.06 0.82 0.04 0.12 30.57 2.51 35.15 1.52 4.58 Old 0.73 0.03 0.87 0.03 0.14 31.05 1.39 36.59 1.38 5.54 Native 1.01 0.05 0.84 0.02 -0.17 43.64 2.02 34.16 0.20 -9.48 Lachlan Down Celled 0.83 0.01 0.85 0.02 0.02 37.23 0.73 36.74 0.76 -0.49 (Rankin Springs) Uncelled 0.76 0.03 0.80 0.04 0.04 32.64 1.65 35.28 1.83 2.64 Lock 0.70 0.05 0.77 0.12 0.07 30.81 2.07 33.22 5.35 2.41 Unlock 0.81 0.02 0.80 0.09 -0.01 35.10 1.38 33.45 3.33 -1.65 32 Total All farms 1.09 0.06 1.01 0.07 -0.08 42.55 2.33 39.17 2.83 -3.38 Table 11: Comparison of mean 2015 SOC% to mean 2013 SOC% in 0-30cm using 2013 confidence interval. Soil organic carbon (SOC ) Farm Paddock 2013 (%) s.e. C.I. (Location) 33 2015 Significant change (%) Merribee Pump 1.37 0.03 0.06 1.16 down (Binya) Merribee 1.31 0.06 0.12 1.29 none Wet 1.34 0.03 0.06 1.24 down Native 1.79 0.24 0.47 1.34 none The Plantation Gurley NA NA NA NA (Bundella) Brigalow 1.33 0.06 0.12 1.57 up Native 1.70 0.18 0.35 2.11 up Merrilong Dimby 1 1.09 0.07 0.14 1.20 none (Yarraman) Dimby 5 1.16 0.07 0.14 1.33 up Willows 1.10 0.06 0.12 1.31 up Native 1.53 0.25 0.49 1.55 none Livingston Airport site 1.02 0.04 0.08 0.60 down (Moree) No till site 1.06 0.04 0.08 0.60 down Native 1.46 0.06 0.12 0.93 down Warili Old cattle yard 1.32 0.04 0.08 1.25 none (Forbes) Buttenshaws 1.09 0.04 0.08 1.18 none Native 1.22 0.03 0.06 1.13 none Wilgo Blackstump 1.01 0.05 0.10 0.72 down (Mulwala) Two tanks 1.10 0.04 0.08 0.67 down Clearview 1.19 0.06 0.12 0.76 down Kilnyana Boatrock 1.03 0.06 0.12 0.96 none (Mulwala) TM21 1.05 0.05 0.10 1.01 none Middleplain 0.81 0.03 0.06 0.91 up Prarie 0.87 0.03 0.06 0.84 none Native 1.09 0.03 0.06 1.09 none Eurie Eurie College green 0.96 0.04 0.08 0.69 down (Walgett) P4 0.91 0.03 0.06 0.78 down Bullock 0.97 0.02 0.04 0.63 down Kambodia Across rail 0.66 0.03 0.06 0.61 none (Moree) New 0.70 0.06 0.12 0.82 none Old 0.73 0.03 0.06 0.87 up Native 1.01 0.05 0.10 0.84 down Lachlan Down Celled 0.83 0.01 0.02 0.85 none (Rankin Springs) Uncelled 0.76 0.03 0.06 0.80 none Lock 0.70 0.05 0.10 0.77 none Unlock 0.81 0.02 0.04 0.80 none NA Table 12: Delta SOC % value for each farm between 2013 and 2015 with recorded rainfall in 2013 and 2015, mean total rainfall for 2014 and 2015 and calculated rainfall deficit (TRD). North to South Farm Rainfall data Delta SOC (%) Rainfall 2013 Rainfall 2014 Mean (mm) (mm) for all years (mm) Total Rainfall Deficit (mm) Kambodia 0.01 565.8 536.8 618.3 -134 Livingston -0.47 499.4 354.8 592.9 -331.6 Walgett -0.25 248.4 270.2 437.5 -356.4 The Plantation 0.33 513.4 453.2 631.7 -296.8 Warili -0.02 388.2 462.3 442.6 -34.7 Merrilong 0.13 680 612 679 -66 Lachlan downs 0.03 221 381 412.6 -223.2 Merribee -0.195 381.4 391.8 419.3 -65.4 Kilnyana -0.008 338 384.4 445 -167.6 Wilgo -0.38 347.4 446 502.3 -211.2 Figure 14: Plot of soil carbon (SOC %) change between 2013 and 2015 against the Total Rainfall Deficit (mm). Soil acid phosphatase activity No significant difference in SOC was observed between No-till (NT) and conventionally tilled areas (CT) on the farms studied. Research has noted that SOC sequestration is highly dependable on ancillary variables, such as site-specific environmental conditions, crop type and management, and the natural storage capacity of a given soil (Kravchenko, Robertson et al. 2006; Wong, Murphy et al. 2008). With respect to SOC management, there have been several studies that have shown higher 34 SOC levels in perennial pasture, pasture-cropping, and rotational irrigated cropping (Luo, Wang et al. 2010). However, elevation of SOC via No till (NT) practices is still a conundrum. Scientific literature provides evidence that Australian agricultural soils have the potential to hold SOC through the introduction of conservation practices (Heenan, Chan et al. 2004), however, there hasn’t been a detectable benefit recorded for Vertosols (McLeod, Schwenke et al. 2013). This mixed response to NT management is a challenge for understanding the SOC sequestration potential. It is quite possible that NT management may improve the overall ‘condition’ of the soil, creating higher microbial activity, nutrient cycling, and thereby assisting SOC cycling. Estimating microbial activity can be achieved using indicators that measure soil enzyme activity, because the enzymes are known to play an important role in the biochemical functions of the soil and decomposition of soil organic matter. Soil enzymes are formed by plants and microorganisms. Measurement of the activities of soil enzymes such as phosphatase, glycosidase and lipases, is known to show a quick response to any change in biophysical properties of soil (Mathew, Feng et al. 2012). For this project the soil acid phosphatase activity (APA) was compared for soil under NT and CT management regimes on four farms of NSW (Table 13). This enzyme is sensitive to soil tillage and is a good indicator of soil quality (Ekenler and Tabatabai 2003; Gil-Sotres, Trasar-Cepeda et al. 2005). Table 13: Farms and paddocks studied for APA comparison. Farm Management information Code ‘Livingston’, Moree ‘Airport’ is an area with a recent history of soil cultivation. CT ‘No-Till’ has been under no-till management for 25 years. NT ‘Kambodia’, Moree ‘New’ is an area cropped for the past 12-15 years under stubble retention and no-till management NT ‘Old’ has been under cropping for 65 years CT ‘Dimby 1’ and is irrigated rotational cropping CT ‘Dimby 5’ and is irrigated rotational cropping CT ‘Willow’ has been under dryland, no-till management for 25 years. NT ‘The Plantation’ is now under no-till management but ‘Gurley’ is an area with a previous history of soil cultivation since the 1940’s. CT ‘Brigalow’ is a newer cropping paddock with predominant history of no-till management. NT ‘Merrilong’, Yarraman ‘The Plantation’, Bundella In Figure 15 the APA activity measured from the whole soil profiles is plotted with soil profile depth on each farm paddock. The colours are sequential with paler colours representing lower content and 35 darker colours representing higher content respectively. There are stark differences between the measured phosphatase activities over the different depth horizons. The top soil horizon (~0-10 cm) has the strongest response to measured APA and the activity then declines with depth in all soil profiles. In Table 14, the APA data for the topsoil (0-30cm) samples measured in 2013 is displayed. The two farms in the Moree area (Livingston and Kambodia) show significantly greater APA activity in the NT sites as compared to the CT sites. The two farms on the Liverpool Plains (Merrilong and The Plantation) show no significant differences. It has been known for some time now that the top layers of a soil profile have high microbial activity compared to the subsoil (Trumbore, Davidson et al. 1995). This may be a consequence of more root growth and development in the top layers of a soil profile. The topsoil is expected to hold more of the labile forms of carbon, as opposed to the subsoil that is known to hold more stable and recalcitrant forms (Fontaine, Barot et al. 2007). Top soil carbon is usually added via different microbial and plant activities and exists in the form of chemical complexes such as sugars, peptides, amino acids, plant enzymes and organic acids (Rovira 1969). Under NT management systems, generally more organic matter is maintained at the surface which should encourage microbial activity (Angers, Bissonnette et al. 1993; Mathew, Feng et al. 2012). Residue retention in NT system consists of layers of litter at the soil surface, which over years go through several levels of decomposition processes (Bosatta and Agren 1985). Catabolism is the process where soil microbes chemically breakdown this surface litter for energy and is controlled by factors such as the quality of litter, types of flora and fauna, resident soil enzymes, soil pH, soil C/N ratio, environmental factors, crop rotations, and soil moisture and structure (Heal, Anderson et al. 1997; Baldock and Skjemstad 2000; Krull, Baldock et al. 2003). Critically, the higher the quality of the surface litter, the higher the microbial activity below ground. It is also possible that rhizosphere priming may be occurring in NT systems, whereby increases in the turnover rate of soil organic matter are induced by the increased addition of carbon and/or nutrients However, the actual impact on SOC turnover still remains under question. 36 Livingston Kambodia Merrilong Plantation Figure 15: Soil APA within the profiles of each paddock. Table 14: APA in 0 - 30 cm soil samples across trial sites in 2013. Mean Farm Site ID SOC % s.e.m APA s.e.m BD pH EC Clay -3 (g cm ) (H20) (μS/cm) (%) ‘Livingston’, Airport(CT) 1.02±0.2a 0.04 114.71±15.97a 4.12 1.48 8.23 133.4 59.52 Moree No till (NT) 1.06±0.2a 0.04 166.03±44.12b11.39 1.44 8.04 193.6 65.59 ‘Kambodia’, New (NT) 0.68±0.2a 0.03 128.36±26.71a 5.45 1.43 7.91 83.3 61.31 Moree Old (CT) 0.73±0.1 a 0.03 103.70±21.59b 6.23 1.42 6.98 79.4 53.51 ‘Merrilong’, Dimby 1 (CT) 1.09±0.3a 0.07 312.30±65.21a16.84 1.26 7.77 146 50.75 Yarraman Dimby 5 (CT) 1.16±0.3a 0.07 335.90±49.46a12.77 1.23 8.03 153.1 44.26 Willows(NT) 1.10±0.2a 0.06 335.67±68.42a17.67 1.25 7.91 127.6 50.12 ‘The Plantation’,Brigalow (NT) 1.33±0.2a 0.06 283.62±63.72a16.45 1.28 8.02 206.3 52.16 Bundella Gurley(CT) 1.25±0.1a 0.03 259.25±28.34a 7.32 1.30 7.83 260.5 61.43 Mean, ± standard deviation not connected by same letter are significantly different. Student t-test was used to SOC %, soil organic carbon (%); s.e.m, standard error mean; APA, Acid phosphatase activity (μg of p-nitrophenol released/g/hr); BD, Bulk density; EC, Electrical conductivity; management code is given in parentheses as CT, tilled, and NT, no-till. 37 The APA data for the top soil (0-30cm) samples from 2015 was used to calculate the change in APA () from 2013 (Table 15). The results show that on ‘Livingston’ both SOC and APA have decreased significantly as compared to ‘Kambodia’ and ‘Merrilong’. The changes in APA were also compared to the calculated Total Rainfall Deficit (TRD) in Table 15 where a strong correlation is observed between the decline in APA and rainfall deficit. On ‘Livingston’ there is considerable decline in APA in No-till as compared to the airport site. Similarly Huang W et al (2011) found that APA follows a seasonal trend with an increase during wet seasons. No-till and Airport were left uncultivated in 2014 due to drought, the consequences of no crop and drought is evident in the results. Table 15: Delta SOC and APA change over two years with rainfall deficit. Farm Site ID !% Rainfall deficit (mm) ‘Livingston’, Airport(CT) No till (NT) -0.42 -0.46 -17.52 -50.12 -331.6 New (NT) Old (CT) 0.04 0.14 12.26 7.63 -134 Dimby 1 (CT) Dimby 1 (CT) Willows (NT) 0.11 0.17 -10.61 -11.64 -11.63 Moree ‘Kambodia’, Moree ‘Merrilong’, Yarraman 38 0.21 -66 Greenhouse gas abatement Parameterisation and validation of the APSIM model to field sites Realistic yields, water balances, and soil carbon dynamics were simulated for all fifteen sites (farm/paddock combinations; Appendices 2 to 9). Scenarios with potential to mitigate greenhouse gas emissions Differences in the simulated values obtained between alternative scenarios and the No Burn scenario (‘baseline’ practice) are presented for all fifteen sites for carbon sequestered (0-0.3 m), nitrous oxide emissions (0-1.0 m), and global warming potential at 25 years (Figure 16) and 100 years into the simulation period (Figure 17). While the effect of the management practices imposed by the scenarios varies across sites (because sites have different soils, climate, and management practices) and over time, general trends are apparent. Change in soil carbon by scenarios The simulated change in soil carbon stored in the top 0.3 m of the soil was between -0.2 % and 0.3 % relative to the No Burn (‘baseline’) scenario at 25 years into the simulation period (Figure 16). At all sites, soil carbon increased relative to the No Burn (‘baseline’) scenario in response to increased inputs of organic matter. The increase was greatest in the Summer Crop and Combination scenarios, but soil carbon also increased when a pasture was grown (Pasture) or manure was applied (Manure). At most sites, the addition of increased nitrogen fertiliser with the retention of stubble (No Burn+N) also increased soil carbon, but only by a small amount. Soil carbon decreased at all sites in scenarios where stubble was burnt and/or nitrogen fertiliser was reduced (Burn, Burn+N, Burn-N, and No BurnN). At 100 years into the simulation period, the scenarios had very similar effects on soil carbon storage as at 25 years, but soil carbon storage changed to between -0.5 % and 0.5 % relative to the No Burn (‘baseline’) scenario. 39 40 Figure 16: Difference between the No Burn (‘baseline’) scenario and alternative scenarios for sequestered carbon (0-0.3 m), nitrous oxide (N2O-N) emissions (0-1.0 m) and net global warming potential (GWP) for 15 case study sites. Data points displayed represent values at 25 years into the simulation period. The simulated values represent the average obtained from simulations with two starting points over 100 years (1914-2013 and 1915-2014). Scenarios are described in Table 3. Figure 17: Difference between the No Burn (‘baseline’) scenario and alternative scenarios for net global warming potential (GWP) for 15 case study sites. Data points displayed represent values at 100 years into the simulation period. The simulated values represent the average obtained from simulations with two starting points over 100 years (1914-2013 and 1915-2014). Scenarios are described in Table 3. Change in nitrous oxide emissions by scenarios The change in simulated nitrous oxide emissions in the top 1.0 m of the soil was between -50 kg N2O-N/ha and 100 kg N2O-N/ha relative to the No Burn (‘baseline’) scenario at 25 years into the simulation period (Figure 16). Simulated nitrous oxide emissions increased compared to the No Burn (‘baseline’) scenario in the No Burn+N scenario at all sites. Simulated nitrous oxide emissions also increased compared to the No Burn (‘baseline’) scenario at most sites in the Manure, Summer Crop, Pasture, and Combination scenarios. Simulated soil organic carbon increased in these scenarios. The increase in nitrous oxide in scenarios where soil organic carbon increased is not surprising, as soil carbon is a substrate for microbes that facilitate nitrous oxide production. Simulated nitrous oxide emissions at all sites were less than or similar to emissions in the No Burn (‘baseline’) scenario in the Burn, Burn-N and No Burn-N scenarios. Nitrous oxide emissions were also less than or similar to emissions in the No Burn (‘baseline’) scenario in the Burn+N scenarios at all sites, with the exception of the Merrilong Willows site (where relatively high amounts of nitrogen fertiliser were used). At 100 years into the simulation period, the scenarios had very similar effects on nitrous oxide emissions as at 25 years, but the quantity of simulated nitrous oxide emissions changed to between -300 kg N2ON/ha and 500 kg N2O-N/ha relative to the No Burn (‘baseline’) scenario. 41 Net global warming potential by scenarios The net amount of greenhouse gas abatement resulting from the effects of the different farming practices represented in the scenarios was determined by different factors at different sites. However, in general, carbon storage was the main driver of the change in net global warming potential obtained for dryland sites, while nitrous oxide emissions were also important drivers for change in net global warming potential at irrigated sites. Accordingly, the large increase in soil carbon stocks obtained under the Summer Crop and Combination scenarios resulted in a net reduction in global warming potential (i.e. provided greenhouse gas abatement) compared with the No Burn (‘baseline’) scenario (Figure 16) at most sites at 25 years into the simulation period. By comparison, relatively high nitrous oxide emissions from the Summer Crop and Combination scenarios at the Dimby1 and Dimby5 irrigated sites at the Merrilong farm resulted in a net increase in global warming potential, despite large increases in soil carbon. However, at the two other irrigated sites investigated (Warili farm), the change in soil carbon storage from these practices was sufficient to offset the relatively high nitrous oxide emissions and resulted in a net decrease in global warming potential. Management practices in the Pasture scenario sequestered sufficient carbon to off-set the nitrous oxide emissions, resulting in a net decrease in global warming potential after 25 years for many sites. For scenarios where stubble was burnt, the reduction in nitrous oxide emissions was not sufficient to offset the reduction of soil carbon storage, resulting in a net increase in global warming potential for most sites. In the No Burn+N, No Burn-N, and Manure scenarios the change in net global warming potential was variable and the effects were site-specific. After 100 years into the simulation period, the amount of abatement provided by some of the scenarios had changed. This occurred because soils that are low in carbon are able to sequester large amounts of carbon initially, but this diminishes over time. By comparison, nitrous oxide emissions are produced at a relatively regular rate. Thus, for the Summer Crop and Combination scenarios, the change in carbon storage was sufficient to offset the nitrous oxide emissions at a fewer number of sites than at 25 years (Figure 17). In the Burn, Burn-N, No Burn-N, Manure, and Pasture scenarios, the change in net global warming potential varied depending on the site and was higher than, similar to, or lower than the No Burn (‘baseline’) scenario. In scenarios where management practices increased nitrogen fertiliser compared with the No Burn (‘baseline’) scenario, net global warming potential was higher than or similar to that in the No Burn (‘baseline’) scenario. 42 Greenhouse gas abatement conclusions Soil carbon was predicted to increase in response to alternative management practices that increase organic matter inputs (e.g. summer legume crops, winter legume pasture instead of winter fallow, and manure additions), and retain crop stubble in combination with increasing nitrogen fertiliser application rate. Generally, nitrous oxide emissions were predicted to increase compared to baseline emissions in response to alternative management practices in the same scenarios where soil carbon increased. Net global warming potential from combined sequestered carbon and nitrous oxide emissions was predicted to decrease (i.e. provide greenhouse gas abatement) compared with the baseline for most of the case study sites under management practices that include a summer crop or have a pasture phase in the rotation, particularly in the initial simulation period (25 years), when relatively high quantities of carbon can be sequestered. The exceptions to this were irrigated sites that used high levels of nitrogen fertiliser. Management strategies that could provide abatement at such sites include reductions to nitrogen fertiliser. Other management practices (such as additions of manure, or changes to nitrogen fertiliser application rate) have the capacity to provide abatement at selected sites. Conclusions and implications for the future At the state level it is farm location (or associated agro-climatic factors), rainfall, soil texture and land-use that are major drivers of variability in SOC across the farms in this project. The findings that pasture or native areas have higher SOC levels than cropping areas implies that there is ‘room’ to improve SOC levels across cropping fields. The inclusion of a pasture phase in the rotation would be expected to help increase the SOC levels in cropping fields as suggested by Chan et al. (2010). The impacts on crop yield, farm operations and enterprise economics would need to be considered. The results here also tend to confirm that areas with lower SOC and high silt/clay fractions may be areas with the greatest potential to increase SOC in the future. Management options within cropping or pasture phases that increase organic matter entering the soil in these areas may be the most effective way to increase overall field/farm SOC levels. Given the evidence here of a positive relationship between crop yield and SOC, one way of achieving this goal in a cropping situation would be to ensure that seasonal crop yield/biomass production potential is achieved on these areas. 43 It is important to note that these results are based on a short term sampling interval, but the preliminary findings here are important for researchers and policy makers considering the development of managerial/agronomic methods for increasing the storage of carbon in soil. They also have implications for carbon accounting systems based on physical soil sampling given that the variability in SOC across fields was generally highest on the farms with highest SOC levels. It implies that the number of samples required and/or the location of the samples across the landscape would need to be targeted to ensure a robust estimate of the average SOC was obtained. Modelling of the grain cropping systems found there is potential for alternative farming management practices to abate greenhouse gas emissions across a range of sites through practices that increase organic matter inputs (e.g. summer legume crops, winter legume pasture, or manure additions). Exceptions to this include irrigated sites that use high levels of nitrogen fertiliser; here management strategies that reduce nitrogen fertiliser application rate would be most likely to abate greenhouse gas emissions. For management strategies that provide abatement through sequestering carbon, abatement potential is higher in the first 25 years when relatively high quantities of carbon can be sequestered, compared with 100 years into the simulation period. Next Steps While some alternative farming management practices have the capacity to abate greenhouse gas emissions, this may not be achieved because these practices may either reduce farm profitability or fit poorly within the overall practicalities of farm management. Further research could take into account the trade-offs and/or interactions associated with farming practicalities and economics. 44 Outreach Media coverage during a soil survey at Moree (Kambodia) with farmer Oscar Pearce Demonstrating soil sample extraction and description to the Faculty of Agriculture and Environment students during 2015 sampling. 45 References Acosta-Martinez, V., L. Cruz, et al. (2007). Enzyme activities as affected by soil properties and land use in a tropical watershed. Applied Soil Ecology 35(1): 35-45. Angers, D. A., N. Bissonnette, et al. (1993). Microbial and biochemical changes induced by rotation and tillage in soil under barley production. Canadian Journal of Soil Science 73(1): 39-50. 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Elsevier Science B.V.: Amsterdam, The Netherlands. Chabbi, A. and C. Rumpel (2009). Organic matter dynamics in agro-ecosystems - the knowledge gaps. European Journal of Soil Science 60(2): 153-157. Chan, K., A. Cowie, et al. (2009). Scoping paper: Soil organic carbon sequestration potential for agriculture in NSW. NSW DPI Science & Research Technical paper. Chan, K., A. Oates, et al. (2010). A farmer's guide to increasing soil organic carbon under pastures, Industry and Investment NSW, Wagga Wagga NSW. Arris Pty Ltd. Chan, Y. (2008). Increasing soil organic carbon of agricultural land. Primefact for profitable, adaptive and sustainable primary industries No. 735. Chan, K.Y., Conyers, M. K., Li, G. D., Helyar, K. R., Poile, G, Oates, A. and Barchia, I. M. (2011).Soil carbon dynamics under different cropping and pasture management in temperate Australia: Results of three long-term experiments. Soil Research, 49: 320–328. 46 Chappell, A., Baldock., J, and Viscarr Rossel, R. (2013). 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(2013).Variations in soil carbon stocks with texture and previous landuse in north-western NSW, Australia. Sustainable Agriculture Research 2: 124-133. Holzworth, D. P. et al. (2014). APSIM – Evolution towards a new generation of agricultural systems simulation. Environmental Modelling and Software 62: 327-350. Huang, W. et al. (2011). Effects of Precipitation on soil acid phosphatase activity in three successional forests in southern China. Biogeosciences 8, 1901-1910. IPCC (2013) Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Stocker, T. F. et al. (eds.). Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, 1535 pp. Jeffrey, S. J. et al. (2001). Using spatial interpolation to construct a comprehensive archive of Australian climate data. Environmental Modelling Software 16: 309-330. Johnson, J. M. et al. (2007). 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Applied and Environmental Soil Science 2012: Article ID 548620. 48 McLeod, M. K., G. D. Schwenke, et al. (2013). Soil carbon is only higher in the surface soil under minimum tillage in Vertosols and Chromosols of New South Wales North-West Slopes and Plains, Australia. Soil Research 51(7/8): 680-694. Meersmans, J., B. van Wesemael, et al. (2009). Modelling the three-dimensional spatial distribution of soil organic carbon (SOC) at the regional scale (Flanders, Belgium). Geoderma 152(1–2): 43-52. Murphy, B., Badgery, W, Simmons, A., Rawson, A., Warden, E. and Andersson, K. (2013).Soil testing protocols at the field scale for contracts and audits - market- based instrument for soil carbon. NSW DPI. 25p. Mott, C.J.B. (1988). Inorganic compounds of the soil. In A. Wild (ed) E.W. Russell's Soil Conditions and Plant Growth, 11th Edition. Longman, Essex, pp.213-238. Post, W. M. and K. C. Kwon (2000). Soil carbon sequestration and land-use change: processes and potential. Global Change Biology 6(3): 317-327. Probert, et al. (1998). APSIM’s water and nitrogen modules and simulation of the dynamics of water and nitrogen in fallow systems. Agricultural Systems 56: 1-28. Rovira, A. D. (1969). Plant root exudates. Botanical Review 35(1): 35-37. Sahrawat, K. L. (2003). Organic matter accumulation in submerged soils. Advances in Agronomy, Volume 81: 169-201. Sanderman, J. et al. (2010). Soil Carbon Sequestration Potential: A review for Australian Agriculture. A report prepared for Department of Climate Change and Energy Efficiency. CSIRO: Urrbrae, South Australia. Silver, W. L., J. Neff, et al. (2000). Effects of Soil Texture on Belowground Carbon and Nutrient Storage in a Lowland Amazonian Forest Ecosystem. Ecosystems 3(2): 193-209. Singh, K., Murphy, B., Marchant, B. (2012). Towards cost-effective estimation of soil carbon stocks at the field scale. Soil Research, 50(8), 672-684. Snyder, C. S. et al. (2009). Review of greenhouse gas emissions from crop production systems and fertilizer management effects. Agriculture, Ecosystems & Environment 133: 247-266. Swift, M. J., O. W. Heal, et al. (1979). Decomposition in terrestrial ecosystems. Oxford, UK, Blackwell Scientific Publications. Tabatabai, M. A. and J. M. Bremner (1969). Use of p-nitrophenyl phosphate for assay of soil phosphatase activity. Soil Biology and Biochemistry 1: 301-307. 49 Thorburn, P. J. et al. (2001). Modelling decomposition of sugar cane surface residues with APSIMResidue. Field Crop Research 70: 223-232. Thorburn, P. J., et al. (2010). Using the APSIM model to estimate nitrous oxide emissions from diverse Australian sugarcane production systems. Agriculture, Ecosystems & Environment 136: 343– 350. Toole, I. (2009). The effects of cropping on the grey soils of the Western CMA region. Primefact for profitable, adaptive and sustainable primary industries No. 829. Trumbore, S. E., E. A. Davidson, et al. (1995). Belowground cycling of carbon in forests and pastures of Eastern Amazonia. Global Biogeochemical Cycles 9(4): 515-528. Walcott, J., Bruce, S.and Andersson, K. (2009). Soil carbon for carbon sequestration and trading: a review of issues for agriculture and forestry. Bureau of Rural Sciences, Department of Agriculture, Fisheries & Forestry, Canberra. Walvoort, D. J. J., D. J. Brus, et al. (2010). An R package for spatial coverage sampling and random sampling from compact geographical strata by k-means. Computers & Geosciences 36(10): 12611267. WANTFA, Western Australia No-Tillage Farming Association, (2015). http://wantfa.com.au/index.php/projects/summer-cropping. Accessed 14/5/2015. Wong, V. N. L., B. W. Murphy, et al. (2008). Soil organic carbon stocks in saline and sodic landscapes. Australian Journal of Soil Research 46(4): 378-389. 50 51 Appendix 1. Example Profile Morphological Report Example of a profile morphological report provided to farmers - The Plantation Soil profile description Figure 1 visually displays the horizon depths and colours observed in each profile. Brigalow The soil type in ‘Brigalow’ is classified as a Black Vertosol, a black cracking clay soil with a strong increase in texture with depth, and a notably brownish black, clayey B2 horizon. These soils have self-mulching properties and often referred to as Black Earths. Gurley The soil type in ‘Gurley’ is classified as a ‘Brown Vertosol’, a cracking clay soil with a gradual change in soil texture down the profile. Figure 1: Soil horizon depth classification and colour. Soil profile clay and carbon content In Figures 2 and 3 the clay (%) and TC (%) content distribution is plotted with depth. The colours are sequential with paler colours representing lower content and darker colours representing higher content respectively. 52 Brigalow A significant increase in clay content from A1 to B2 horizon in ‘Brigalow’ may impose restrictions to crop root growth in this horizon and may be a factor in the reduced TC content. Gurley The generally lighter textured A1 and B21 horizons in ‘Gurley’ should provide greater rooting depth for crop production. The impact of this is that the TC content remains high to a greater depth in this profile relative to ‘Brigalow’. The longer history of cultivation may also be a factor. Figure 2: Soil clay content (%) distribution with depth. Figure 3: Soil TC (%) distribution with depth. 53 A possible explanation as to why the SOC content in the profile is lower under no-till Soil carbon can be divided between the active and passive pools (Trumbore 2000) . The active pool contains fresh forms of carbon such as microbes, animal and root exudates in the form of sugars, peptides, amino acids, plant enzymes, nutrients and organic acids (Rovira 1969). The passive pool is a more stable form of carbon and includes lignin, resins, and charcoal. The top layer of the soil profile is known to comprise mostly active pool carbon and the subsoil is known to have more passive pool carbon. In a no-till system on Vertosol soil, the vertical redistribution of soil carbon can occur via natural processes such as bioturbation and movement down deep cracks. On the other hand, soil tillage can promote top soil carbon redistribution and potential storage in the passive pool in the subsoil (Benham, Vanguelova et al. 2012). It must be remembered that the results shown here are based on one soil profile analysed for soil carbon from ‘Gurley’ and ‘Brigalow’, but the topsoil results provided in the last report also found no significant difference in topsoil organic carbon between ‘Gurley’ and ‘Brigalow’. Several studies have found similar results: no difference in soil carbon levels between till/no-till systems or higher soil carbon levels in a tilled system at, and below, the plough depth (Rasse, Mulder et al. 2006; Gal, Vyn et al. 2007; Angers and Eriksen-Hamel 2008). One possibility is that the active pool carbon in the soil under no-till is larger than in the tilled system, which would promote greater microbial activity and therefore breakdown of SOM at a faster rate. Greater amounts of OM may be going into the soil, but being cycled more quickly and therefore not moving into the passive carbon pool. The benefits of this should be seen in improved soil structure, water holding capacity and crop production. Currently we are running soil microbial activity assessments, but it would be good to get access to any spatial yield data from these two fields to match with the TC data. C/N ratio and decomposition of soil organic matter There are several important factors responsible for soil organic matter (SOM) decomposition by microbes, such as oxygen supply, water, soil pH, temperature, nitrogen and the C/N ratio. Soil TN content represents the total amount of nitrogen present in soil, usually locked up in the organic matter. A decline in TN levels down a profile contributes to a lowering of SOM decomposition rate. Linking the TC to the TN is the C/N ratio to which the activity of SOM decomposing microbes is sensitive. Higher C/N ratios are known to slow decomposition of organic matter and vice versa 54 (Figure 4). The C/N ratio in the surface layers for ‘Brigalow’ is lower as compared to ’Gurley’ which could suggest a rapid breakdown of organic matter and mineralization in the surface layers of ‘Brigalow’. The assumed active soil carbon in a no-till system could be promoting this mineralization. Figure 4: A schematic diagram to illustrate what occurs when the C/N ratio is high or low Other elements Tables 1 and 2 contain the values for all soil properties within the individual soil horizons in each soil profile. Titanium content is high in both the paddocks, and tends to be decreasing with depth in ‘Brigalow’, and a reverse trend is seen in ‘Gurley’. These levels could be related to catalytic functions in nitrogen fixation by symbiotic microbes. Iron content is very high in both the paddocks and tends to decrease with depth, iron is required in metabolism of bacteria, formation of chlorophyll, and contributes to soil colour. High zirconium is usually found in nodules of roots, and promotes microbial activity. 55 Table 1: Soil property results for profile horizons in ‘Brigalow’ Element Soil properties in Brigalow with soil horizon (red= high and blue= lower than mean) A1 B21 B22 Comments TN 0.09 Medium 0.05 Low 0.05 Low Nitrogen tends to decrease with depth. TC 1.18 0.95 0.92 TC tends to decrease with depth. C/N Ratio 13.43 18.07 20.46 Increasing with depth. pH (CaCl2) 6.4 6.5 6.9 Electrical conduct. (μS/cm) 284 267 271 Clay % 39.54 65.81 73.33 Chlorine NA NA NA Potassium 5917 5575 9653 Low tends to increase with depth. Calcium 5429 8115 9214 Low tends to increase with depth. 8445 6547 High Titanium Tends to increase with depth, Vanadium 106 105 93 High Chromium 133 99 102 High Manganese 1040 1031 750 High Iron 53044 48924 42818 High Nickel 74 62 79 High Copper 46 43 29 High Zinc 88 76.2 80.9 High Arsenic 8.8 5.5 7.1 Selenium 14.9 14.4 15.2 Rubidium 44.3 42.3 76 Strontium 189 220 211 Yttrium 32.7 30.3 35.1 Zirconium 399 437 361 High Niobium 48.2 47.1 39.3 High Rhodium NA NA NA Tin NA NA 9 Barium 314 296 400 Lanthanum NA 70 NA Cerium NA NA 87 Tantalum NA 19 28 Platinum 20-75 NA NA NA Mercury NA NA 6.7 Lead NA 5.7 11.1 Thorium 16.3 16.5 17.1 High, increasing with depth Uranium 14.3 13.2 13.8 High, increasing with depth 56 High, increasing with depth High Table 2: Soil property results for profile horizons in ‘Gurley’ Element Soil properties in Gurley with soil horizon (red= high and blue= lower than mean) A1 B21 B22 Comments TN 0.07 0.05 0.06 Nitrogen decreasing down the profile. TC 1.22 1.33 1.19 Higher TC in lower depths C/N Ratio 16.52 27.35 19.28 High C/N ratio in B21 horizon pH (CaCl2) 6.8 6.6 7.3 Electrical conduct.(μS/cm) 308 250 262 Clay % 46.14 43.25 68.61 Chlorine NA NA NA Potassium 7505 6408 7284 Calcium 9955 11531 13864 Titanium 8381 7820 7649 High Vanadium 101 95 97 High Chromium 102 154 108 High Manganese 969 972 998 High Iron 53904 49617 49526 High Nickel 102 86 88 High Copper 42 36 34 High Zinc 86.5 74.8 77.2 High Arsenic 5.6 3.6 4.3 low Selenium 17 16.2 14.7 High, increasing with depth Rubidium 46.2 41.3 43.2 Strontium 257 298 261 Yttrium 29.3 30.3 27.8 Zirconium 394 377 363 High Niobium 53.6 51.8 49.1 High Rhodium 1 NA NA Tin NA NA NA Barium 287 267 254 Lanthanum NA NA NA Cerium NA NA 95 Tantalum 23 24 27 Platinum 20-75 NA NA NA Mercury NA NA 6.5 Lead 6 6.9 7.2 Thorium 19 16.9 18.3 High, increasing with depth Uranium 14.2 13.2 14.3 High, increasing with depth 57 Fine textured as compared to Brigalow. High, increasing with depth low High References Angers, D. A. and N. S. Eriksen-Hamel (2008). Full-inversion tillage and organic carbon distribution in soil profiles: A meta-analysis. Soil Science Society of America Journal 72: 1370-1374. Benham, S. E., E. I. Vanguelova, et al. (2012). Short and long term changes in carbon, nitrogen and acidity in the forest soils under oak at the Alice Holt Environmental Change Network site. Science of the Total Environment 421: 82-93. Gal, A., T. J. Vyn, et al. (2007). Soil carbon and nitrogen accumulation with long-term no-till versus moldboard plowing overestimated with tilled-zone sampling depths. Soil & Tillage Research 96(1-2): 42-51. Rasse, D. P., J. Mulder, et al. (2006). Carbon turnover kinetics with depth in a french loamy soil. Soil Science Society of America Journal 70(6): 2097-2105. Rovira, A. D. (1969). Plant root exudates. Botanical Review 35(1): 35-37. Trumbore, S. (2000). Age of soil organic matter and soil respiration: Radiocarbon constraints on belowground C dynamics. Ecological Applications 10(2): 399-411. 58 Appendix 2: Kambodia greenhouse gas abatement simulations Model parameterisation Soils The simulated soils (Table 1) representing the farm soils were based on nearby APSOIL parameterisations. Measured soil organic carbon and pH values were used for the Across Rail and New paddocks. Table 1: Soil properties used to simulate the Kambodia farm soils at the Across Rail and New paddocks. Parameter Across Rail New APSoil number APSoil name Soil type Organic carbon (Total %, 0.00-0.15 m) Soil C:N pH (CaCl2; 0.00-0.15 m) Curve number Drainage Root depth restricted – crop dependant (m) Plant available water capacity – crop dependant (mm) Crop rotation for the parameterisation simulations1 Crop rotation for the simulations simulations1 78 Terry Hie Hie Grey vertosol 0.66 12 7.3 84 Moderate (0.3) 1.5 -1.8 195-207 78 Terry Hie Hie Grey vertosol 0.70 12 7.3 84 Moderate (0.3) 1.2-1.8 168-221 WtxWtxxCtxxWtxWt WtxCpxWtxCnxWtxWt WtxCpxWtxxSg WtxCpxWtxxSg 1 Wt, wheat; By, barley; Cp, chickpea; Cn, canola; Ot, oats; Ln, lucerne; Fb, faba bean; Sg, sorghum; Ct, cotton; Mz, maize; Sn, sunflower; x, fallow. Climate Rainfall, evaporation, temperature and radiation data were obtained from the SILO climate record (Jeffrey et al., 2001) for the Pallamallawa Post Office meteorological station (station number 53033). Average rainfall for the area is 618 mm/yr. Management practices The crop rotation for the parameterisation simulations and the long-term parameterisation simulations represented the actual crop rotation grown most recently at the site (Table 1). However, this crop rotation was not considered sensible for a long-term rotation for the scenarios. Thus for the scenarios a region-appropriate typical crop rotation was simulated (Table 1). 59 Crop variety, sowing windows, fertiliser rates and application dates, and tillage management practices for (1) the general management practices simulated for the parameterisation simulations and the long-term parameterisation simulations, (2) the specific management for the parameterisation simulations, and (3) the general management for the scenarios for the Kambodia case study farm are described in Tables 2 and 3. Table 2: General management practices for the parameterisation simulations and the long-term parameterisation simulations, the specific management used to represent on-site management for the parameterisation simulations, and the general management used for the scenarios for the Across Rail paddock for the Kambodia. Practice General management for parameterisation simulations and long-term parameterisation simulations Specific management for parameterisation simulations General management for scenarios Variety S71BR (cotton); spitfire (wheat) S71BR (cotton); spitfire or sunvale (wheat) Sowing date 15-Oct to 15-Nov (cotton); 14-May to 7-Jul (wheat) N fertiliser at sowing Apply: 50 kg N/ha (cotton); 40 kg N/ha (wheat): N is applied as urea at 50 mm depth Apply: 30 kg N/ha (cotton): N is applied as urea at 50 mm depth 15-Oct to 15-Nov (cotton); 1Jun to 28-Jun (wheatsunvale); 12-Jun (wheatspitfire 2013); 29-May (wheat-spitfire 2014) Apply: 50 kg N/ha (cotton); 60 kg N/ha (wheat-sunvale); 12 kg N/ha (wheat-spitfire 2013) ; 11 kg N/ha (wheatspitfire 2014): N is applied as urea at 50 mm depth Apply: 64 kg N/ha (wheatspitfire 2013) on 22-may2013; 67 kg N/ha (wheatspitfire 2014) on 28-apr2014: N is applied as urea at 50 mm depth Apply: 55 kg N/ha (cotton): N is applied as urea at 50 mm depth spitfire (wheat); amethyst (chickpea); medium (sorghum) 14-May to 7-Jul (wheat); 7May to 28-Jun (chickpea); 7Sep to 7-Nov (sorghum) Nil – plant into standing stubble Zero till; plant stubble left on paddock after harvest Nil – plant into standing stubble Zero till; plant stubble left on paddock after harvest N fertiliser on a fixed date N fertiliser 40 days after sowing Tillage Residues 60 Apply: 40 kg N/ha (wheat); 3 kg N/ha (chickpea); 80 kg N/ha (sorghum): N is applied as urea at 50 mm depth Nil Scenario dependent Table 3: General management practices for the parameterisation simulations and the long-term parameterisation simulations, the specific management used to represent on-site management for the parameterisation simulations, and the general management used for the scenarios for the New paddock for the Kambodia. Practice General management for parameterisation simulations and long-term parameterisation simulations Specific management for parameterisation simulations General management for scenarios Variety sunvale (wheat); amethyst (chickpea); hyola42 (canola) bellaroi, spitfire or sunvale (wheat); amethyst (chickpea); hyola42 (canola) Sowing date 1-May to 21-Jun (wheat); 7May to 28-Jun (chickpea); 21Apr to 14-Jun (canola); N fertiliser at sowing Apply: 40 kg N/ha (wheat); 3 kg N/ha (chickpea); 40 kg N/ha (canola): N is applied as urea at 50 mm depth 1-Jun to 21-Jun (wheatsunvale); 1-Jul to 14-Aug (wheat-bellaroi); 12-Jun (wheat-spitfire 2013); 3-Jun (wheat-spitfire 2014) 47 kg N/ha (wheat-sunvale); 66 kg N/ha (wheat-bellaroi); 12 kg N/ha (wheat-spitfire 2013); 3 kg N/ha (chickpea); 70 kg N/ha (canola): N is applied as urea at 50 mm depth Apply: 64 kg N/ha (wheatspitfire 2013) on 22-may2013; 67 kg N/ha (wheatspitfire 2014) on 1-may2014: N is applied as urea at 50 mm depth Nil – plant into standing stubble Zero till; plant stubble left on paddock after harvest sunvale (wheat); amethyst (chickpea); medium (sorghum) 1-May to 21-Jun (wheat); 7May to 28-Jun (chickpea); 7Sep to 7-Nov (sorghum) N fertiliser on a fixed date Tillage Nil – plant into standing stubble Residues Zero till; plant stubble left on paddock after harvest Apply: 40 kg N/ha (wheat); 3 kg N/ha (chickpea); 80 kg N/ha (sorghum): N is applied as urea at 50 mm depth Nil Scenario dependent Biophysical modelling Parameterisation of APSIM to the Across Rail paddock at Kambodia Parameterisations simulations The crop rotation (Table 1) practiced at the Across Rail paddock at the Kambodia farm was simulated with representative crop management and soil outlined in Tables 1 and 2. Realistic simulated crop yields were obtained for the cotton and wheat crops. Average simulated wheat yield in the general 61 and specific management practices was estimated to be within 0.16 t/ha of the average yield measured at the farm (Figure 1). Average simulated cotton yield in the general and specific management practices was estimated to be within 0.22 bales/ha of the average yield measured at the farm. Average simulated crop yields were simulated to be above the regional average crop yields. Figure 1: Average measured crop yield and regional average (1992-2010) crop yield versus average predicted crop yield for the parameterisation simulations using general and specific management for a single wheatwheat-cotton-wheat-wheat crop rotation for the Across Rail paddock at the Kambodia farm. The simulation was run from 2008 to 2014. Long-term parameterisation simulations Long-term parameterisation simulations used general management practises. Inputs from rainfall were simulated to be in balance with the losses from evapotranspiration, runoff, and deep drainage (Figure 2). Soil carbon in both the total soil profile (0-1.8 m) and in the top 0.3 m was predicted to be very slowly declining (Figure 3). The general management practices included bare fallow periods combined with variable within-crop rainfall. Accordingly, there were low and discontinuous inputs of carbon throughout the simulation which led to an overall net mineralisation of carbon from this soil. 62 Figure 2: Water balance for the long-term parameterisation simulation using general management for a wheat-wheat-cotton-wheat-wheat crop rotation for the Across Rail paddock at the Kambodia farm. The simulation was run from 1961 to 2014. 63 Figure 3: Soil carbon 0-1.8 m (top) and soil carbon 0-0.3 m (bottom) for the long-term parameterisation simulation using general management for a wheat-wheat-cotton-wheat-wheat crop rotation for the Across Rail paddock at the Kambodia farm. The simulation was run from 1961 to 2014. Modelling of the scenarios Scenarios (described in Section Abating greenhouse gas emissions from soils: Table 3) were applied to the Across Rail paddock at the Kambodia farm. The No Burn scenario was developed from the parameterisation simulation with the general management practices. It represents the common practice at the site and was considered to be the ‘baseline’ scenario against which all other scenarios were compared. Crop yield, annual nitrous oxide emissions, and soil carbon in the top 0.3 m of the soil for all scenarios are presented in Figures 4, 5 and 6. 64 Figure 4: Crop yield simulated in response to 10 scenarios for a wheat-chickpea-wheat-sorghum crop rotation for the Across Rail paddock at the Kambodia farm. Values displayed represent the crop yield from simulations with two starting points over 100 years (1914-2013 and 1915-2014). Scenarios are described in Section Abating greenhouse gas emissions from soils: Table 3. Figure 5: Annual simulated emissions of nitrous oxide (N2O-N) in response to 10 scenarios for a wheatchickpea-wheat-sorghum crop rotation for the Across Rail paddock at the Kambodia farm. Values displayed represent the overall average obtained from simulations with two starting points over 100 years (1914-2013 and 1915-2014). Scenarios are described in Section Abating greenhouse gas emissions from soils: Table 3. 65 Figure 6: Soil carbon in the surface 0.3 m of soil simulated in response to 10 scenarios for a wheat-chickpeawheat-sorghum crop rotation for the Across Rail paddock at the Kambodia farm. Values displayed represent the overall average obtained from simulations with two starting points over 100 years (1914-2013 and 19152014). Scenarios are described in Section Abating greenhouse gas emissions from soils: Table 3. Differences in the values obtained between alternative scenarios and the No Burn scenario (considered to be the ‘baseline’ practice) are presented for carbon sequestered (0-0.3 m), nitrous oxide emissions (0-1.0 m) and global warming potential (Figure 7). Soil carbon increased in scenarios relative to the No Burn (‘baseline’) scenario when residues were not burnt and increased nitrogen fertiliser was applied, a summer crop or pasture was grown, or manure was applied. These scenarios all involved increased inputs of organic matter. Soil carbon decreased in scenarios where stubble was burnt and/or nitrogen fertiliser was reduced. Nitrous oxide emissions increased compared to the No Burn (‘baseline’) scenario in all scenarios where soil organic carbon increased and were reduced in all scenarios where soil organic carbon decreased. The increase in nitrous oxide in scenarios where soil organic carbon increased is not surprising, as soil carbon is a substrate for microbes that facilitate nitrous oxide production. The net amount of greenhouse gas abatement resulting from the different scenarios was dominated by changes in soil carbon. In scenarios where management practices considerably increased soil carbon stocks compared with the No Burn (‘baseline’) scenario (Summer Crop, Pasture and Combination), the greenhouse gas abatement provided by the sequestered carbon was greater than 66 the global warming impact of the nitrous oxide emissions, resulting in a reduction in net global warming potential. Global warming potential in the No Burn+N and No Burn-N scenarios was similar to the No Burn (‘baseline’) scenario. In scenarios where management practices reduced soil carbon stocks compared with the No Burn (‘baseline’) scenario (Burn, Burn+N, and Burn-N), net global warming potential increased, irrespective of any reduction of nitrous oxide emissions. When soil carbon stabilised in these scenarios, the net global warming potential began to decrease (although it was still positive by the end of the simulation period). Figure 7: Difference between the No Burn (‘baseline’) scenario and alternative scenarios for sequestered carbon (0-0.3 m), nitrous oxide (N2O-N) emissions (0-1.0 m) and net global warming potential (GWP) for a wheat-chickpea-wheat-sorghum crop rotation for the Across Rail paddock at the Kambodia farm. Values displayed represent the overall average obtained from simulations with two starting points over 100 years (1914-2013 and 1915-2014). Scenarios are described in Section Abating greenhouse gas emissions from soils: Table 3. 67 Parameterisation of APSIM to the New paddock at Kambodia Parameterisation simulations The crop rotation (Table 1) practiced at the New paddock at the Kambodia farm was set up with representative crop management and soil outlined in Tables 1 and 3. Realistic simulated crop yields were obtained for the wheat, canola, and chickpea crops. Average simulated wheat and canola yield in the general and specific management practices was estimated to be within 0.60 t/ha of the average yield measured at the farm (Figure 8). Average simulated chickpea yield in the general and specific management was estimated to be within 1.15 t/ha of the average chickpea yield measured at the farm. Average simulated crop yields were simulated to be above the regional average crop yields. Figure 8: Average measured crop yield and regional average (1992-2010) crop yield versus average predicted crop yield for the parameterisation simulations using general and specific management for a single wheatchickpea-wheat-canola-wheat-wheat crop rotation for the New paddock at the Kambodia farm. The simulation was run from 2008 to 2014. Long-term parameterisation simulations Long-term parameterisation simulations used general management practises. Inputs from rainfall were simulated to be in balance with the losses from evapotranspiration, runoff, and deep drainage 68 (Figure 9). Soil carbon in both the total soil profile (0-1.8 m) and in the top 0.3 m was predicted to be relatively stable over time (Figure 10). Figure 9: Water balance for the long-term parameterisation simulation using general management for a wheat-chickpea-wheat-canola-wheat-wheat crop rotation for the New paddock at the Kambodia farm. The simulation was run from 1961 to 2014. 69 Figure 10: Soil carbon 0-1.8 m (top) and soil carbon 0-0.3 m (bottom) for the long-term parameterisation simulation using general management for a wheat-chickpea-wheat-canola-wheat-wheat crop rotation for the New paddock at the Kambodia farm. The simulation was run from 1961 to 2014. Modelling of the scenarios Scenarios (described in Section Abating greenhouse gas emissions from soils: Table 3) were applied to the New paddock at the Kambodia farm. The No Burn scenario was developed from the parameterisation simulation with the general management practices. It represents the common practice at the site and was considered to be the ‘baseline’ scenario against which all other scenarios were compared. Crop yield, annual nitrous oxide emissions, and soil carbon in the top 0.3 m of the soil for all scenarios are presented in Figures 11, 12 and 13. 70 Figure 11: Crop yield simulated in response to 10 scenarios for a wheat-chickpea-wheat-sorghum crop rotation for the New paddock at the Kambodia farm. Values displayed represent the overall average obtained from simulations with two starting points over 100 years (1914-2013 and 1915-2014). Scenarios are described in Section Abating greenhouse gas emissions from soils: Table 3. Figure 12: Annual simulated emissions of nitrous oxide (N2O-N) in response to 10 scenarios for a wheatchickpea-wheat-sorghum crop rotation for the New paddock at the Kambodia farm. Values displayed represent the overall average obtained from simulations with two starting points over 100 years (1914-2013 and 1915-2014). Scenarios are described in Section Abating greenhouse gas emissions from soils: Table 3. 71 Figure 13: Soil carbon in the surface 0.3 m of soil simulated in response to 10 scenarios for a wheatchickpea-wheat-sorghum crop rotation for the New paddock at the Kambodia farm. Values displayed represent the overall average obtained from simulations with two starting points over 100 years (1914-2013 and 1915-2014). Scenarios are described in Section Abating greenhouse gas emissions from soils: Table 3. Differences in the values obtained between alternative scenarios and No Burn scenario (considered to be the ‘baseline’ practice) are presented for carbon sequestered (0-0.3 m), nitrous oxide emissions (0-1.0 m) and global warming potential (Figure 14). Soil carbon increased in scenarios relative to No Burn (‘baseline’) scenario when residues were not burnt and increased nitrogen fertiliser was applied, a summer crop or pasture was grown, or manure was applied. These scenarios all involved increased inputs of organic matter. Soil carbon decreased in scenarios where stubble was burnt and/or nitrogen fertiliser was reduced. Nitrous oxide emissions increased compared to the No Burn (‘baseline’) scenario in all scenarios where soil organic carbon increased and were reduced in all scenarios where soil organic carbon decreased. The increase in nitrous oxide in scenarios where soil organic carbon increased is not surprising, as soil carbon is a substrate for microbes that facilitate nitrous oxide production. The net amount of greenhouse gas abatement resulting from the different scenarios was dominated by changes in soil carbon. In scenarios where management practices considerably increased soil carbon stocks compared with the No Burn (‘baseline’) scenario (Summer Crop, Pasture and Combination), the greenhouse gas abatement provided by the sequestered carbon was greater than 72 the global warming impact caused by the simulation of the nitrous oxide emissions resulting in a reduction in global warming potential compared with the No Burn (‘baseline’) scenario. Global warming potential in the No Burn+N and No Burn-N scenarios was similar to the No Burn (‘baseline’) scenario. In scenarios where management practices reduced soil carbon stocks compared with the No Burn (‘baseline’) scenario (Burn, Burn+N, and Burn-N), net global warming potential increased, irrespective of any reduction of nitrous oxide emissions. When soil carbon stabilised in these scenarios, global warming potential began to decrease (although it was still positive by the end of the simulation period). Figure 14: Difference between the No Burn (‘baseline’) scenario and alternative scenarios for sequestered carbon (0-0.3 m), nitrous oxide (N2O-N) emissions (0-1.0 m) and net global warming potential (GWP) for a wheat-chickpea-wheat-sorghum crop rotation for the New paddock at the Kambodia farm. Values displayed represent the overall average obtained from simulations with two starting points over 100 years (1914-2013 and 1915-2014). Scenarios are described in Section Abating greenhouse gas emissions from soils: Table 3. 73 Appendix 3: Livingston greenhouse gas abatement simulations Model parameterisation Soils The simulated soils (Table 1) representing the farm soils were based on nearby APSOIL parameterisations. Measured soil organic carbon and pH values were used for the Airport and JKL No Till paddocks. Table 1: Soil properties used to simulate the Livingston farm soils for the Airport and JKL No Till paddocks. Parameter Airport JKL No Till APSoil number APSoil name Soil type Organic carbon (Total %, 0.00-0.15 m) Soil C:N pH (CaCl2; 0.00-0.15 m) Curve number Drainage Root depth restricted – crop dependant (m) Plant available water capacity – crop dependant (mm) Crop rotation1 235 Black Vertosol Moree Black vertosol 1.02 12 5.4 84 Moderate (0.3) 1.2 171-175 235 Black Vertosol Moree Black vertosol 1.06 12 6.6 84 Moderate (0.3) 1.2-1.8 171-208 ByxByxByxCpxWtxCpxx CpxWtxWtxxSgCpxWtxx 1 Wt, wheat; By, barley; Cp, chickpea; Cn, canola; Ot, oats; Ln, lucerne; Fb, faba bean; Sg, sorghum; Ct, cotton; Mz, maize; Sn, sunflower; x, fallow. Climate Rainfall, evaporation, temperature and radiation data were obtained from the SILO climate record (Jeffrey et al., 2001) for the Moree Aero meteorological station (station number 053115). Average rainfall for the area is 593 mm/yr. Management practices The crop rotation for the parameterisation simulations, the long-term parameterisation simulations, and the scenarios represented the actual crop rotation grown most recently at the site. Crop variety, sowing windows, fertiliser rates and application dates, and tillage management practices for the Livingston farm are described in Tables 2 and 3. 74 Table 2: General management practices used in the parameterisation, long-term parameterisation, and scenario simulations, as well as the specific management practices used to represent on-site management in the parameterisation simulations for the Airport paddock for the Livingston farm. Practice General management used in parameterisation simulations, long-term parameterisation simulations, and in scenarios Specific management used in parameterisation simulations Variety sunbri (wheat); amethyst (chickpea); commander (barley) 7-Apr to 7-Jun (wheat); 7-May to 28-Jun (chickpea); 1-May to 21-Jun (barley) sunbri (wheat); amethyst (chickpea); commander (barley) 4-May to 7-Jun (wheat); 20-Jun to 28-Jun (chickpea 2011); 20-Jun (chickpea 2013); 1-May to 21-Jun (barley) Apply: 50.5 kg N/ha (wheat); 4.5 kg N/ha (chickpea 2011); 5 kg N/ha (chickpea 2013); 0 kg N/ha (barley): N is applied as urea at 50 mm depth Nil – plant into standing stubble Zero till; plant stubble left on paddock after harvest Sowing date N fertiliser at sowing Apply: 40 kg N/ha (wheat); 5 kg N/ha (chickpea); 20 kg N/ha (barley): N is applied as urea at 50 mm depth Tillage Residues Nil – plant into standing stubble Zero till; plant stubble left on paddock after harvest Table 3: General management practices used in the parameterisation, long-term parameterisation, and scenario simulations, as well as the specific management practices used to represent on-site management in the parameterisation simulations for the JKL No Till paddock for the Livingston farm. Practice General management used in parameterisation simulations, long-term parameterisation simulations, and in scenarios Specific management used in parameterisation simulations Variety janz (wheat); amethyst (chickpea); buster (sorghum) 1-May to 21-Jun (wheat); 7-May to 28-Jun (chickpea); 7-Oct to 7-Nov (sorghum) bellaroi, wylie, or janz (wheat); amethyst (chickpea); buster (sorghum) 14-May to 7-Jul (wheat-bellaroi); 1-Jul to 21-Jul (wheat-wylie); 27-May (wheatjanz); 7-May to 28-Jun (chickpea); 7-Oct to 7-Nov (sorghum) Apply: 50.5 kg N/ha (wheat-bellaroi); 50.5 kg N/ha (wheat-wylie); 55 kg N/ha (wheat-janz); 4.5 kg N/ha (chickpea); 0 kg N/ha (sorghum): N is applied as urea at 50 mm depth Apply: 46 kg N/ha (wheat-janz) on 25-jun2013: N is applied as urea at 50 mm depth Nil – plant into standing stubble Zero till; plant stubble left on paddock after harvest Sowing date N fertiliser at sowing N fertiliser on a fixed date Tillage Residues 75 Apply: 55 kg N/ha (wheat); 4.5 kg N/ha (chickpea); 40 kg N/ha (sorghum): N is applied as urea at 50 mm depth Nil – plant into standing stubble Zero till; plant stubble left on paddock after harvest Biophysical modelling Parameterisation of APSIM to the Airport paddock at Livingston Parameterisation simulations The crop rotation (Table 1) practiced at the Airport paddock at the Livingston farm was set up with representative crop management and soil outlined in Tables 1 and 2. Realistic simulated crop yields were obtained for the barley, chickpea, and wheat crops. Average simulated chickpea and wheat yield in the general and specific management practices was estimated to be within 0.73 t/ha of the average yield measured at the farm (barley yield was not measured; Figure 1). Average simulated crop yields were simulated to be above the regional average crop yields, with the exception of barley yield in the specific management, which was simulated to be slightly below the regional average. Figure 1: Average measured crop yield and regional average (1992-2010) crop yield versus average predicted crop yield for the parameterisation simulations using general and specific management for a single barleybarley-barley-chickpea-wheat-chickpea-fallow crop rotation for the Airport paddock at the Livingston farm. The simulation was run from 2007 to 2014. 76 Long-term parameterisation simulations Long-term parameterisation simulations used general management practises. Inputs from rainfall were simulated to be in balance with the losses from evapotranspiration, runoff, and deep drainage (Figure 2). Soil carbon both in the total soil profile and in the top 0.3 m was predicted to be slowly declining under the general management practices scenario (Figure 3). The general management practices included bare fallow periods combined with variable within-crop rainfall. Accordingly, there were low and discontinuous inputs of carbon throughout the simulation which led to an overall net mineralisation of carbon from this soil. Figure 2: Water balance for the long-term parameterisation simulation using general management for a barley-barley-barley-chickpea-wheat-chickpea-fallow crop rotation for the Airport paddock at the Livingston farm. The simulation was run from 1959 to 2014. 77 Figure 3: Soil carbon 0-1.8 m (top) and soil carbon 0-0.3 m (bottom) for the long-term parameterisation simulation using general management for a barley-barley-barley-chickpea-wheat-chickpea-fallow crop rotation for the Airport paddock at the Livingston farm. The simulation was run from 1959 to 2014. Modelling of the scenarios Scenarios (described in Section Abating greenhouse gas emissions from soils: Table 3) were applied to the Airport paddock at the Livingston farm. The No Burn scenario was developed from the parameterisation simulation with the general management practices. It represents the common practice at the site and was considered to be the ‘baseline’ scenario against which all other scenarios were compared. Crop yield, annual nitrous oxide emissions, and soil carbon in the top 0.3 m of the soil for all scenarios are presented in Figures 4, 5 and 6. 78 Figure 4: Crop yield simulated in response to 10 scenarios for a barley-barley-barley-chickpea-wheatchickpea-fallow crop rotation for the Airport paddock at the Livingston farm. Values displayed represent the overall average obtained from simulations with two starting points over 100 years (1914-2013 and 19152014). Scenarios are described in Section Abating greenhouse gas emissions from soils: Table 3. Figure 5: Annual simulated emissions of nitrous oxide (N2O-N) in response to 10 scenarios for a barleybarley-barley-chickpea-wheat-chickpea-fallow crop rotation for the Airport paddock at the Livingston farm. Values displayed represent the overall average obtained from simulations with two starting points over 100 years (1914-2013 and 1915-2014). Scenarios are described in Section Abating greenhouse gas emissions from soils: Table 3. 79 Figure 6: Soil carbon in the surface 0.3 m of soil simulated in response to 10 scenarios for a barley-barleybarley-chickpea-wheat-chickpea-fallow crop rotation for the Airport paddock at the Livingston farm. Values displayed represent the overall average obtained from simulations with two starting points over 100 years (1914-2013 and 1915-2014). Scenarios are described in Section Abating greenhouse gas emissions from soils: Table 3. Differences in the values obtained between alternative scenarios and the No Burn scenario (considered to be the ‘baseline’ practice) are presented for carbon sequestered (0-0.3 m), nitrous oxide emissions (0-1.0 m) and global warming potential (Figure 7). Soil carbon increased in scenarios relative to the No Burn (‘baseline’) scenario when residues were not burnt and increased nitrogen fertiliser was applied, a summer crop or pasture was grown, or manure was applied. These scenarios all involved increased inputs of organic matter. Soil carbon decreased in scenarios where stubble was burnt and/or nitrogen fertiliser was reduced. For the first 20 years of the simulation period, nitrous oxide emissions were similar to the No Burn (‘baseline’) scenario in all scenarios. After this period, nitrous oxide emissions increased in all scenarios where soil organic carbon increased and decreased in all scenarios where soil organic carbon decreased. The increase in nitrous oxide in scenarios where soil organic carbon increased is not surprising, as soil carbon is a substrate for microbes that facilitate nitrous oxide production. The net amount of greenhouse gas abatement resulting from the different scenarios was dominated by changes in soil carbon. In scenarios where management practices considerably increased soil 80 carbon stocks compared with the No Burn (‘baseline’) scenario, the greenhouse gas abatement provided by the sequestered carbon was greater than the global warming impact of the nitrous oxide emissions, resulting in a reduction in net global warming potential. This occurred in the Summer Crop, Pasture and Combination scenarios. The Manure scenario was also able to provide a small reduction in net global warming potential for the majority of the simulation time frame. The net global warming potential in the No Burn+N and No Burn+N scenarios was similar to the No Burn (‘baseline’) scenario. In scenarios where management practices reduced soil carbon stocks compared with the No Burn (‘baseline’) scenario, net global warming potential increased irrespective of any reduction in nitrous oxide emissions, until the time in which soil organic carbon became relatively stable. At this point, global warming potential in these scenarios began to decrease and by the end of the simulation period, it was similar to the No Burn (‘baseline’) scenario. Figure 7: Difference between the No Burn (‘baseline’) scenario and alternative scenarios for sequestered carbon (0-0.3 m), nitrous oxide (N2O-N) emissions (0-1.0 m) and net global warming potential (GWP) for a barley-barley-barley-chickpea-wheat-chickpea-fallow crop rotation for the Airport paddock at the Livingston farm. Values displayed represent the overall average obtained from simulations with two starting points over 100 years (1914-2013 and 1915-2014). Scenarios are described in Section Abating greenhouse gas emissions from soils: Table 3. 81 Parameterisation of APSIM to the JKL No Till paddock at Livingston Parameterisation simulations The crop rotation (Table 1) practiced at the JKL No Till paddock at the Livingston farm was set up with representative crop management and soil outlined in Tables 1 and 3. Realistic simulated crop yields were obtained for the wheat, sorghum, and chickpea crops (Figure 8). Average simulated chickpea yield for the general and specific management practices was estimated to be within 0.08 t/ha of the average yield measured at the farm. Average simulated sorghum yield for the specific management practices was over-predicted (within 1.6 t/ha) of the average yield measured at the farm. Average simulated wheat yield in the general and specific management was within 0.46 t/ha of the average yield measured at the farm. The low average simulated wheat yield may be explained in part by the variety of durum wheat grown at the site. The bellaroi variety of durum was grown at the farm in 2009 and yielded 3.8 t/ha. APSIMs capacity to simulate durum wheat is still under development and the estimated the yield for this crop was substantially lower than the measured yield. Average simulated crop yields were simulated to be above the regional average crop yields. Figure 8: Average measured crop yield and regional average (1992-2010) crop yield versus average predicted crop yield for the parameterisation simulations using general and specific management for a single chickpea-wheat-wheat-fallow-sorghum-chickpea-wheat-fallow crop rotation for the JKL No Till paddock at the Livingston farm. The simulation was run from 2007 to 2014. 82 Long-term parameterisation simulations Long-term parameterisation simulations used general management practises. Inputs from rainfall were simulated to be in balance with the losses from evapotranspiration, runoff, and deep drainage (Figure 9). Soil carbon both in the total soil profile and in the top 0.3 m was predicted to be slowly declining under the general management practices scenario (Figure 10). The general management practices included bare fallow periods combined with variable within-crop rainfall. Accordingly, there were low and discontinuous inputs of carbon throughout the simulation which led to an overall net mineralisation of carbon from this soil. Figure 9: Water balance for the long-term parameterisation simulation using general management for a chickpea-wheat-wheat-fallow-sorghum-chickpea-wheat-fallow crop rotation for the JKL No Till paddock at the Livingston farm. The simulation was run from 1959 to 2014. 83 Figure 10: Soil carbon 0-1.8 m (top) and soil carbon 0-0.3 m (bottom) for the long-term parameterisation simulation using general management for a chickpea-wheat-wheat-fallow-sorghum-chickpea-wheat-fallow crop rotation for the JKL No Till paddock at the Livingston farm. The simulation was run from 1959 to 2014. Modelling of the scenarios Scenarios (described in Section Abating greenhouse gas emissions from soils: Table 3) were applied to the JKL No Till paddock at the Livingston case study farm. The No Burn scenario was developed from the parameterisation simulation with the general management practices. It represents the common practice at the site and was considered to be the ‘baseline’ scenario against which all other scenarios were compared. Crop yield, annual nitrous oxide emissions, and soil carbon in the top 0.3 m of the soil for all scenarios are presented in Figures 11, 12 and 13. 84 Figure 11: Crop yield simulated in response to 10 scenarios for a chickpea-wheat-wheat-fallow-sorghumchickpea-wheat-fallow crop rotation for the JKL No Till paddock at the Livingston farm. Values displayed represent the overall average obtained from simulations with two starting points over 100 years (1914-2013 and 1915-2014). Scenarios are described in Section Abating greenhouse gas emissions from soils: Table 3. Figure 12: Annual simulated emissions of nitrous oxide (N2O-N) in response to 10 scenarios for a chickpeawheat-wheat-fallow-sorghum-chickpea-wheat-fallow crop rotation for the JKL No Till paddock at the Livingston farm. Values displayed represent the overall average obtained from simulations with two starting points over 100 years (1914-2013 and 1915-2014). Scenarios are described in Section Abating greenhouse gas emissions from soils: Table 3. 85 Figure 13: Soil carbon in the surface 0.3 m of soil simulated in response to 10 scenarios for a chickpeawheat-wheat-fallow-sorghum-chickpea-wheat-fallow crop rotation for the JKL No Till paddock at the Livingston farm. Values displayed represent the overall average obtained from simulations with two starting points over 100 years (1914-2013 and 1915-2014). Scenarios are described in Section Abating greenhouse gas emissions from soils: Table 3. Differences in the values obtained between alternative scenarios and the No Burn scenario (considered to be the ‘baseline’ practice) are presented for carbon sequestered (0-0.3 m), nitrous oxide emissions (0-1.0 m) and global warming potential (Figure 14). Soil carbon increased in scenarios relative to the No Burn (‘baseline’) scenario when a summer crop or pasture was grown, or manure was applied. These scenarios all involved increased inputs of organic matter. Soil carbon was similar to that in the No Burn (‘baseline’) scenario when the residues were not burnt and increased nitrogen fertiliser was applied. Soil carbon decreased relative to the No Burn (‘baseline’) scenario where stubble was burnt and/or nitrogen fertiliser was reduced. Nitrous oxide emissions increased compared to the No Burn (‘baseline’) scenario in all scenarios where soil organic carbon increased and were reduced or similar to the No Burn (‘baseline’) scenario in all scenarios where soil organic carbon decreased. The increase in nitrous oxide in scenarios where soil organic carbon increased is not surprising, as soil carbon is a substrate for microbes that facilitate nitrous oxide production. 86 The net amount of greenhouse gas abatement resulting from the different scenarios was dominated by both soil carbon and nitrous oxide emissions. While management practices increased soil carbon stocks compared with the No Burn (‘baseline’) scenario in a number of scenarios, this was sufficient to reduce the net global warming potential for the majority of the simulation time frame only in the Combination scenario. The Manure, Pasture and Summer Crop scenarios were only able to provide intermittent reductions in global warming potential for the first 30 years of the simulation time frame, after which they caused an increase in global warming potential. All other simulations either resulted in a net global warming potential that was similar to or greater than the No Burn (‘baseline’) scenario. Figure 14: Difference between the No Burn (‘baseline’) scenario and alternative scenarios for sequestered carbon (0-0.3 m), nitrous oxide (N2O-N) emissions (0-1.0 m) and net global warming potential (GWP) for a chickpea-wheat-wheat-fallow-sorghum-chickpea-wheat-fallow crop rotation for the JKL No Till paddock at the Livingston farm. Values displayed represent the overall average obtained from simulations with two starting points over 100 years (1914-2013 and 1915-2014). Scenarios are described in Section Abating greenhouse gas emissions from soils: Table 3. 87 Appendix 4: Lachlan Downs greenhouse gas abatement simulations Model parameterisation Soils The simulated soils (Table 1) representing the farm soils were based on nearby APSOIL parameterisations. Measured soil organic carbon and pH values were used for the Wheat paddock. Table 1: Soil properties used to simulate the Lachlan Downs farm soils for the Wheat paddock. Parameter Wheat APSoil number APSoil name Soil type Organic carbon (Total %, 0.00-0.15 m) Soil C:N pH (CaCl2; 0.00-0.15 m) Curve number Drainage Root depth restricted (m) Plant available water capacity – crop dependant (mm) Crop rotation1 689 West Wyalong Sand loam over a sandy clay 0.76 12 5.8 68 well drained (0.5) 1.0 124 WtxWtx 1 Wt, wheat; By, barley; Cp, chickpea; Cn, canola; Ot, oats; Ln, lucerne; Fb, faba bean; Sg, sorghum; Ct, cotton; Mz, maize; Sn, sunflower; x, fallow. Climate Rainfall, evaporation, temperature and radiation data were obtained from the SILO climate record (Jeffrey et al., 2001) for the Naradhan (Uralba) meteorological station (station number 075050). Average rainfall for the area is 451 mm/yr. Management practices The crop rotation for the parameterisation simulations, the long-term parameterisation simulations, and the scenarios represented the actual crop rotation grown most recently at the site. Crop variety, sowing windows, fertiliser rates and application dates, and tillage management practices for the Lachlan Downs farm are described in Table 2. 88 Table 2: General management practices used in the parameterisation, long-term parameterisation, and scenario simulations, as well as the specific management practices used to represent on-site management in the parameterisation simulations Wheat paddock for the Lachlan Downs farm. Practice General management used in parameterisation simulations, long-term parameterisation simulations, and in scenarios Specific management used in parameterisation simulations Variety livingston (wheat) Sowing date 21-Apr to 14-Jun (wheat) N fertiliser at sowing Apply: 40 kg N/ha (wheat): N is applied as urea at 50 mm depth Tillage Residues Nil – plant into standing stubble Zero till; plant stubble left on paddock after harvest livingston (wheat 2012); livingston (wheat 2013) 28-May (wheat 2012); 21-May (wheat 2013) Apply: 0 kg N/ha (wheat 2012); 0 kg N/ha (wheat 2013): N is applied as urea at 50 mm depth Nil – plant into standing stubble Zero till; plant stubble left on paddock after harvest Biophysical modelling Parameterisation of APSIM to the Wheat paddock at Lachlan Downs Parameterisation simulations The crop rotation (Table 1) practiced at the Wheat paddock at the Lachlan Downs farm was set up with representative crop management and soil outlined in Tables 1 and 2. Realistic simulated crop yields were obtained for the wheat crops. Average simulated wheat yield in the specific management practices was estimated to be above (1.46 t/ha) the average yield measured at the farm (Figure 1). The average measured yield at the farm was very low (average ~0.3 t/ha) due to heavy thistle infestation. Furthermore, no fertiliser was recorded to have been applied to the crops, which also may have contributed to low yields. Average simulated wheat yield in the general management simulations was within 0.44 t/ha of the regional average yield. 89 Figure 1: Average measured crop yield and regional average (1992-2010) crop yield versus average predicted crop yield for the parameterisation simulations using general and specific management for a single wheatwheat crop rotation for the Wheat paddock at the Lachlan Downs farm. The simulation was run from 2011 to 2013. Long-term parameterisation simulations Long-term parameterisation simulations used general management practises. Inputs from rainfall were simulated to be in balance with the losses from evapotranspiration, runoff, and deep drainage (Figure 2). Soil carbon both in the total soil profile and in the top 0.3 m was predicted to be slowly declining under the general management practices scenario (Figure 3). This scenario included bare fallow periods combined with variable within-crop rainfall. Accordingly, there were low and discontinuous inputs of carbon throughout the simulation which led to mineralisation of carbon from this soil. 90 Figure 2: Water balance for the long-term parameterisation simulation using general management for a wheat-wheat crop rotation for the Wheat paddock at the Lachlan Downs farm. The simulation was run from 1964 to 2013. 91 Figure 3: Soil carbon 0-1.2 m (top) and soil carbon 0-0.3 m (bottom) for the long-term parameterisation simulation using general management for a wheat-wheat crop rotation for the Wheat paddock at the Lachlan Downs farm. The simulation was run from 1964 to 2013. Modelling of the scenarios Scenarios (described in Section Abating greenhouse gas emissions from soils: Table 3) were applied to the Wheat paddock at the Lachlan Downs case study farm. The No Burn scenario was developed from the parameterisation simulation with the general management practices. It represents the common practice at the site and was considered to be the ‘baseline’ scenario against which all other scenarios were compared. Crop yield, annual nitrous oxide emissions, and soil carbon in the top 0.3 m of the soil for all scenarios are presented in Figures 4, 5 and 6. 92 Figure 4: Crop yield simulated in response to eight scenarios for a wheat-wheat crop rotation for the Wheat paddock at the Lachlan Downs farm. Values displayed represent the overall average obtained from simulations with two starting points over 100 years (1914-2013 and 1915-2014). Scenarios are described in Section Abating greenhouse gas emissions from soils: Table 3. Figure 5: Annual simulated emissions of nitrous oxide (N2O-N) in response to eight scenarios for a wheatwheat crop rotation for the Wheat paddock at the Lachlan Downs farm. Values displayed represent the overall average obtained from simulations with two starting points over 100 years (1914-2013 and 19152014). Scenarios are described in Section Abating greenhouse gas emissions from soils: Table 3. 93 Figure 6: Soil carbon in the surface 0.3 m of soil simulated in response to eight scenarios for a wheat-wheat crop rotation for the Wheat paddock at the Lachlan Downs farm. Values displayed represent the overall average obtained from simulations with two starting points over 100 years (1914-2013 and 1915-2014). Scenarios are described in Section Abating greenhouse gas emissions from soils: Table 3. Differences in the values obtained between alternative scenarios and the No Burn scenario (considered to be the ‘baseline’ practice) are presented for carbon sequestered (0-0.3 m), nitrous oxide emissions (0-1.0 m) and global warming potential (Figure 7). The Pasture and Combination scenarios were not simulated at this site as there was no winter fallow in the crop rotation. Soil carbon increased in scenarios relative to the No Burn (‘baseline’) scenario when residues were not burnt and increased nitrogen fertiliser was applied, a summer crop was grown, or manure was applied. These scenarios all involved increased inputs of organic matter. Soil carbon decreased in scenarios where stubble was burnt and/or nitrogen fertiliser was reduced. Nitrous oxide emissions increased in the Manure and No Burn+N scenarios compared to the No Burn (‘baseline’) scenario but reduced in all other scenarios (for the majority of the simulation time period). An increase in nitrous oxide in scenarios where soil organic carbon increased is not surprising, as availability of soil carbon is one of the precursors for nitrous oxide production. The net amount of greenhouse gas abatement resulting from the different scenarios was dominated by changes in soil carbon. In the Summer Crop scenario, management practices considerably 94 increased soil carbon stocks and reduced nitrous oxide emissions compared with the No Burn (‘baseline’) scenario, thus providing a substantial reduction in global warming potential. In the Manure scenario, the greenhouse gas abatement provided by the small amount of sequestered carbon was greater than the global warming impact caused by the simulation of the nitrous oxide emissions resulting in a small reduction in global warming potential compared with the No Burn (‘baseline’) scenario. In scenarios where management practices had reduced or similar soil carbon stocks compared with the No Burn (‘baseline’) scenario, net global warming potential increased or was similar irrespective of any reduction in nitrous oxide emissions. Figure 7: Difference between the No Burn (‘baseline’) scenario and alternative scenarios for sequestered carbon (0-0.3 m), nitrous oxide (N2O-N) emissions (0-1.0 m) and net global warming potential (GWP) for a wheat-wheat crop rotation for the Wheat paddock at the Lachlan Downs farm. Values displayed represent the overall average obtained from simulations with two starting points over 100 years (1914-2013 and 19152014). Scenarios are described in Section Abating greenhouse gas emissions from soils: Table 3. 95 Appendix 5: Kilnyana greenhouse gas abatement simulations Model parameterisation Soils The simulated soils (Table 1) representing the farm soils were based on nearby APSOIL parameterisations. Measured soil organic carbon and pH values were used for the Boatrock and Middleplain paddocks. Table 1: Soil properties used to simulate the Kilnyana farm soils for the Boatrock and Middleplain paddocks. Parameter Boatrock Middleplain APSoil number APSoil name Soil type 184 Tocumwal Sandy Clay Loam over Light Clay 1.03 12 5.7 73 Well drained (0.5) 1.8 168 213 Rand Clay Loam over Clay Organic carbon (Total %, 0.00-0.15 m) Soil C:N pH (CaCl2; 0.00-0.15 m) Curve number Drainage Root depth restricted – crop dependant (m) Plant available water capacity – crop dependant (mm) Crop rotation1 0.81 12 5.9 73 Moderate (0.4) 0.9-1.8 118-172 WtxWtxOtxCnxWtxByxCn WtxWtxWtxWtxxxCnxBy 1 Wt, wheat; By, barley; Cp, chickpea; Cn, canola; Ot, oats; Ln, lucerne; Fb, faba bean; Sg, sorghum; Ct, cotton; Mz, maize; Sn, sunflower; x, fallow. Climate Rainfall, evaporation, temperature and radiation data were obtained from the SILO climate record (Jeffrey et al., 2001) for the Berrigan Post Office meteorological station (station number 74009). Average rainfall for the area is 445 mm/yr. Management practices The crop rotation for the parameterisation simulations, the long-term parameterisation simulations, and the scenarios represented the actual crop rotation grown most recently at the site. Crop variety, sowing windows, fertiliser rates and application dates, and tillage management practices for the Kilnyana farm are described in Tables 2 and 3. 96 Table 2: General management practices used in the parameterisation, long-term parameterisation, and scenario simulations, as well as the specific management practices used to represent on-site management in the parameterisation simulations for the Boatrock paddock for the Kilnyana farm. Practice General management used in parameterisation simulations, long-term parameterisation simulations, and in scenarios Specific management used in parameterisation simulations Variety sunvale (wheat); hindmarsh (barley); hyola42 (canola); coolabah (oats) 1-May to 21-Jun (wheat); 7-May to 21-Jul (barley); 14-Apr to 7-Jun (canola); 21-Mar to 21-May (oats) sunvale (wheat); hindmarsh (barley); hyola42 (canola); coolabah (oats) 1-May to 21-Jun (wheat); 26-May (barley); 14-Apr to 7-Jun (canola 2011); 14-Apr to 7-Jun (canola 2014); 21-Mar to 21-May (oats) Apply: 7 kg N/ha (wheat); 9 kg N/ha (barley); 7 kg N/ha (canola 2011); 24 kg N/ha (canola 2014); 7 kg N/ha (oats): N is applied as urea at 50 mm depth Apply: 73.6 kg N/ha (canola 2014): N is applied as urea at 50 mm depth Sowing date N fertiliser at sowing Apply: 7 kg N/ha (wheat); 9 kg N/ha (barley); 10 kg N/ha (canola); 30 kg N/ha (oats): N is applied as urea at 50 mm depth N fertiliser 40 days after sowing N fertiliser on a fixed date Tillage Apply: 40 kg N/ha (wheat); 45 kg N/ha (barley); 15 kg N/ha (canola): N is applied as urea at 50 mm depth Nil – plant into standing stubble Apply: 45 kg N/ha (barley) on 1-aug-2013; 64.4 kg N/ha (wheat) on 14-jul-2012: N is applied as urea at 50 mm depth Nil – plant into standing stubble Table 3: General management practices used in the parameterisation, long-term parameterisation, and scenario simulations, as well as the specific management practices used to represent on-site management in the parameterisation simulations for the Middleplain paddock for the Kilnyana farm. Practice General management used in parameterisation simulations, long-term parameterisation simulations, and in scenarios Specific management used in parameterisation simulations Variety sunvale (wheat); hindmarsh (barley); hyola42 (canola) 1-May to 21-Jun (wheat); 7-May to 21-Jul (barley); 14-Apr to 7-Jun (canola) Apply: 40 kg N/ha (wheat); 3 kg N/ha (barley); 21 kg N/ha (canola): N is applied as urea at 50 mm depth Apply: 40 kg N/ha (barley); 59 kg N/ha (canola): N is applied as urea at 50 mm depth sunvale (wheat); hindmarsh (barley); hyola42 (canola) 1-May to 21-Jun (wheat); 1-Jun to 21-Jul (barley); 21-May to 7-Jun (canola) Apply: 7 kg N/ha (wheat); 3 kg N/ha (barley); 21 kg N/ha (canola): N is applied as urea at 50 mm depth Apply: 74 kg N/ha (barley): N is applied as urea at 50 mm depth Sowing date N fertiliser at sowing N fertiliser 40 days after sowing N fertiliser on a fixed date 97 Apply: 2.1 kg N/ha (canola) on 15-jul2013; 46 kg N/ha (canola) on 11-aug2013; 10.5 kg N/ha (canola) on 26-aug2013 : N is applied as urea at 50 mm depth Tillage Residues Nil – plant into standing stubble Zero till; plant stubble left on paddock after harvest Nil – plant into standing stubble Zero till; plant stubble left on paddock after harvest Biophysical modelling Parameterisation of APSIM to the Boatrock paddock at Kilnyana Parameterisation simulations The crop rotation (Table 1) practiced at the Boatrock paddock at the Kilnyana farm was set up with representative crop management and soil outlined in Tables 1 and 2. Realistic simulated crop yields were obtained for the barley, canola, oats and wheat crops. Average simulated canola yield in the general and specific management practices was estimated to be within 0.19 t/ha of the average yield measured at the farm (Figure 1). Wheat yield was well simulated in the specific management practices for the 2012 crop (3.14 t/ha; data not shown), which was the only year wheat yield was recorded on the farm (3 t/ha; data not shown). Simulated wheat yield was low in the other two years wheat crops were simulated (the yield not recorded on these years at the farm) and this reduced the average yield to the values (2.03 or 2.34 t/ha) displayed on the graph. Average barley yield was under-predicted in both general and specific management, but was estimated to be within 0.37 t/ha of the regional average. The oat crop was grown for hay and thus the yield was not recorded at the farm. In addition, a very small amount of fertiliser was recorded to have been applied to the oat crop. 98 Figure 1: Average measured crop yield and regional average (1992-2010) crop yield versus average predicted crop yield for the parameterisation simulations using general and specific management for a single wheatwheat-oats-canola-wheat-barley-canola crop rotation for the Boatrock paddock at the Kilnyana farm. The simulation was run from 2007 to 2014. Long-term parameterisation simulations Long-term parameterisation simulations used general management practises. Inputs from rainfall were simulated to be in balance with the losses from evapotranspiration, runoff, and deep drainage (Figure 2). Soil carbon in both the total soil profile (0-1.8 m) and in the top 0.3 m was predicted to be very slowly declining (Figure 3). The general management practices included bare fallow periods combined with variable within-crop rainfall. Accordingly, there were low and discontinuous inputs of carbon throughout the simulation which led to an overall net mineralisation of carbon from this soil. 99 Figure 2: Water balance for the long-term parameterisation simulation using general management for a wheat-wheat-oats-canola-wheat-barley-canola crop rotation for the Boatrock paddock at the Kilnyana farm. The simulation was run from 1959 to 2014. 100 Figure 3: Soil carbon 0-1.8 m (top) and soil carbon 0-0.3 m (bottom) for the long-term parameterisation simulation using general management for a wheat-wheat-oats-canola-wheat-barley-canola crop rotation for the Boatrock paddock at the Kilnyana farm. The simulation was run from 1959 to 2014. Modelling of the scenarios Scenarios (described in Section Abating greenhouse gas emissions from soils: Table 3) were applied to the Boatrock paddock at the Kilnyana farm. The No Burn scenario was developed from the parameterisation simulation using the general management practices. It represents the common practice at the site and was considered to be the ‘baseline’ scenario against which all other scenarios were compared. Crop yield, annual nitrous oxide emissions, and soil carbon in the top 0.3 m of the soil for all scenarios are presented in Figures 4, 5 and 6. 101 Figure 4: Crop yield simulated in response to eight scenarios for a wheat-wheat-oats-canola-wheat-barleycanola crop rotation for the Boatrock paddock at the Kilnyana farm. Values displayed represent the overall average obtained from simulations with two starting points over 100 years (1914-2013 and 1915-2014). Scenarios are described in Section Abating greenhouse gas emissions from soils: Table 3. 102 Figure 5: Annual simulated emissions of nitrous oxide (N2O-N) in response to eight scenarios for a wheatwheat-oats-canola-wheat-barley-canola crop rotation for the Boatrock paddock at the Kilnyana farm. Values displayed represent the overall average obtained from simulations with two starting points over 100 years (1914-2013 and 1915-2014). Scenarios are described in Section Abating greenhouse gas emissions from soils: Table 3. Figure 6: Soil carbon in the surface 0.3 m of soil simulated in response to eight scenarios for a wheat-wheatoats-canola-wheat-barley-canola crop rotation for the Boatrock paddock at the Kilnyana farm. Values displayed represent the overall average obtained from simulations with two starting points over 100 years (1914-2013 and 1915-2014). Scenarios are described in Section Abating greenhouse gas emissions from soils: Table 3. 103 Differences in the values obtained between alternative scenarios and the No Burn scenario (considered to be the ‘baseline’ practice) are presented for carbon sequestered (0-0.3 m), nitrous oxide emissions (0-1.0 m) and global warming potential (Figure 7). The Pasture and Combination scenarios were not simulated at this site as there was no winter fallow in the crop rotation. Soil carbon increased in scenarios relative to the No Burn (‘baseline’) scenario when residues were not burnt and increased nitrogen fertiliser was applied, a summer crop was grown, or manure was applied. These scenarios all involved increased inputs of organic matter. Soil carbon decreased in scenarios where stubble was burnt and/or nitrogen fertiliser was reduced. Nitrous oxide emissions increased in the No Burn+N scenario compared to the No Burn (‘baseline’) scenario, were similar for the Manure scenario, but reduced in all other scenarios (for the majority of the simulation time period). The net amount of greenhouse gas abatement resulting from the different scenarios was dominated by changes in soil carbon. In the No Burn+N scenario, where management practices increased soil carbon stocks compared with the No Burn (‘baseline’) scenario, the greenhouse gas abatement provided by the sequestered carbon was greater than the global warming impact caused by increased nitrous oxide emissions, resulting in a reduction in global warming potential. Increased soil carbon also drove the reduction in global warming potential in the Summer Crop and Manure scenarios, however, in the Summer Crop scenario reductions to nitrous oxide emissions compared with the No Burn (‘baseline’) scenario also contributed. Scenarios were soil organic carbon decreased compared with the No Burn (‘baseline’) scenario led to a net increase in global warming potential irrespective of reductions in nitrous oxide emissions. 104 Figure 7: Difference between the No Burn (‘baseline’) scenario and alternative scenarios for sequestered carbon (0-0.3 m), nitrous oxide (N2O-N) emissions (0-1.0 m) and net global warming potential (GWP) for a wheat-wheat-oats-canola-wheat-barley-canola crop rotation for the Boatrock paddock at the Kilnyana farm. Values displayed represent the overall average obtained from simulations with two starting points over 100 years (1914-2013 and 1915-2014). Scenarios are described in Section Abating greenhouse gas emissions from soils: Table 3. 105 Parameterisation of APSIM to the Middleplain paddock at Kilnyana Parameterisation simulations The crop rotation (Table 1) practiced at the Middleplain paddock at the Kilnyana farm was set up with representative crop management and soil outlined in Tables 1 and 3. Realistic simulated crop yields were obtained for the wheat, canola, and barley crops. Average simulated canola yield in the general and specific management practices was estimated to be within 0.90 t/ha of the average yield measured at the farm and within 0.50 t/ha of the regional average yield (Figure 8). Average simulated wheat yield in the general and specific management was estimated to be within 0.49 t/ha of the regional average wheat yield (no measurements of wheat yield were recorded at the farm). Average simulated barley yield in the specific management practices was estimated to be within 0.48 t/ha of the average yield measured at the farm. Figure 8: Average measured crop yield and regional average (1992-2010) crop yield versus average predicted crop yield for the parameterisation simulations using general and specific management for a single wheatwheat-wheat-wheat-fallow-canola-barley crop rotation for the Middleplain paddock at the Kilnyana farm. The simulation was run from 2007 to 2014. 106 A single measurement of ammonium in the top 0.6 m of the soil was well simulated, but the amount of nitrate and total nitrogen was under estimated by approximately 50 kg N/ha (Figure 9). Figure 9: Measured (point) and predicted (line) nitrate, ammonium, total nitrogen (TotalN) in the top 0.6 m of the soil for the specific management simulation for a single wheat-wheat-wheat-wheat-fallow-canolabarley crop rotation for the Middleplain paddock at the Kilnyana farm. The simulation was run from 2007 to 2014. Long-term parameterisation simulations Long-term parameterisation simulations used general management practises. Inputs from rainfall were simulated to be in balance with the losses from evapotranspiration, runoff, and deep drainage (Figure 10). Soil carbon in both the total soil profile (0-1.8 m) and in the top 0.3 m was predicted to be very slowly declining (Figure 11). The general management practices included bare fallow periods combined with variable within-crop rainfall. Accordingly, there were low and discontinuous inputs of carbon throughout the simulation which led to an overall net mineralisation of carbon from this soil. 107 Figure 10: Water balance for the long-term parameterisation simulation using general management for a wheat-wheat-wheat-wheat-fallow-canola-barley crop rotation for the Middleplain paddock at the Kilnyana farm. The simulation was run from 1959 to 2014. 108 Figure 11: Soil carbon 0-1.8 m (top) and soil carbon 0-0.3 m (bottom) for the long-term parameterisation simulation using general management for a wheat-wheat-wheat-wheat-fallow-canola-barley crop rotation for the Middleplain paddock at the Kilnyana farm. The simulation was run from 1959 to 2014. Modelling of the scenarios Scenarios (described in Section Abating greenhouse gas emissions from soils: Table 3) were applied to the Middleplain paddock at the Kilnyana farm. The No Burn scenario was developed from the parameterisation simulation using the general management practices. It represents the common practice at the site and was considered to be the ‘baseline’ scenario against which all other scenarios were compared. Crop yield, annual nitrous oxide emissions, and soil carbon in the top 0.3 m of the soil for all scenarios are presented in Figures 12, 13 and 14. 109 Figure 12: Crop yield simulated in response to 10 scenarios for a wheat-wheat-wheat-wheat-fallow-canolabarley crop rotation for the Middleplain paddock at the Kilnyana farm. Values displayed represent the overall average obtained from simulations with two starting points over 100 years (1914-2013 and 19152014). Scenarios are described in Section Abating greenhouse gas emissions from soils: Table 3. Figure 13: Average Annual simulated emissions of nitrous oxide (N2O-N) in response to 10 scenarios for a wheat-wheat-wheat-wheat-fallow-canola-barley crop rotation for the Middleplain paddock at the Kilnyana farm. Values displayed represent the overall average obtained from simulations with two starting points over 100 years (1914-2013 and 1915-2014). Scenarios are described in Section Abating greenhouse gas emissions from soils: Table 3. 110 Figure 14: Soil carbon in the surface 0.3 m of soil simulated in response to 10 scenarios for a wheat-wheatwheat-wheat-fallow-canola-barley crop rotation for the Middleplain paddock at the Kilnyana farm. Values displayed represent the overall average obtained from simulations with two starting points over 100 years (1914-2013 and 1915-2014). Scenarios are described in Section Abating greenhouse gas emissions from soils: Table 3. Differences in the values obtained between alternative scenarios and the No Burn scenario (considered to be the ‘baseline’ practice) are presented for carbon sequestered (0-0.3 m), nitrous oxide emissions (0-1.0 m) and global warming potential (Figure 7). Soil carbon increased in scenarios relative to the No Burn (‘baseline’) scenario when residues were not burnt and increased nitrogen fertiliser was applied, a summer crop or pasture was grown, or manure was applied. These scenarios all involved increased inputs of organic matter. Soil carbon decreased in scenarios where stubble was burnt and/or nitrogen fertiliser was reduced. Nitrous oxide emissions increased compared to the No Burn (‘baseline’) scenario in some scenarios (Manure, Pasture, and No Burn+N) where soil organic carbon increased. Conversely, while soil carbon increased in the Summer Crop and Combination scenarios, variable nitrous oxide emissions were simulated. In scenarios were soil carbon decreased relative to No Burn (‘baseline’) scenario, nitrous oxide emissions were reduced. 111 The net amount of greenhouse gas abatement resulting from the different scenarios was dominated by changes in soil carbon. In scenarios where management practices considerably increased soil carbon stocks compared with the No Burn (‘baseline’) scenario (Summer Crop, Pasture, and Combination) the greenhouse gas abatement provided by the sequestered carbon was greater than any negative global warming impact caused by nitrous oxide emissions, resulting in a reduction in global warming potential. In scenarios where management practices reduced soil carbon stocks compared with the No Burn (‘baseline’) scenario, net global warming potential was either similar to the No Burn (‘baseline’) scenario or increased, irrespective of any reduction of nitrous oxide emissions. Figure 15: Difference between the No Burn (‘baseline’) scenario and alternative scenarios for sequestered carbon (0-0.3 m), nitrous oxide (N2O-N) emissions (0-1.0 m) and net global warming potential (GWP) for a wheat-wheat-wheat-wheat-fallow-canola-barley crop rotation for the Middleplain paddock at the Kilnyana farm. Values displayed represent the overall average obtained from simulations with two starting points over 100 years (1914-2013 and 1915-2014). Scenarios are described in Section Abating greenhouse gas emissions from soils: Table 3. 112 Appendix 6: Merrilong greenhouse gas abatement simulations Model parameterisation Soils The simulated soils (Table 1) representing the farm soils were based on nearby APSOIL parameterisations. Measured soil organic carbon and pH values were used for the Dimby1 and Dimby5 paddocks. Table 1: Soil properties used to simulate the Merrilong farm soils for the Dimby1, Dimby5, and Willows paddocks. Parameter Dimby1 Dimby5 Willows APSoil number APSoil name Soil type Organic carbon (Total %, 0.00-0.15 m) 123 Breeza Grey-Black Vertosol 1.09 94 Spring Ridge Black Vertosol 1.16 94 Spring Ridge Black Vertosol 1.10 Soil C:N pH (CaCl2; 0.00-0.15 m) Curve number Drainage Root depth restricted – crop dependant (m) Plant available water capacity – crop dependant (mm) Crop rotation1 12 6.4 84 Moderate (0.3) 1.8 12 6.8 84 Moderate (0.3) 1.8 12 5.8 Moderate (0.3) 1.2-1.8 264-273 254-302 254-266 WtxxSgxSgWtxxCtWt SgxMzxSgWtxxSgWt WtxxSgxSnWtxxSg 1 Wt, wheat; By, barley; Cp, chickpea; Cn, canola; Ot, oats; Ln, lucerne; Fb, faba bean; Sg, sorghum; Ct, cotton; Mz, maize; Sn, sunflower; x, fallow. Climate Rainfall, evaporation, temperature and radiation data were obtained from the SILO climate record (Jeffrey et al., 2001) for the Pine Ridge meteorological station (station number 055037). Average rainfall for the area is 603 mm/yr. Management practices Crop variety, sowing windows, fertiliser rates and application dates, and tillage management practices for (1) the general management practices simulated for the parameterisation simulations, long-term parameterisation simulations, and scenarios, and (2) the specific management for the parameterisation simulations for the Merrilong case study farm are described in Tables 2, 3 and 4. 113 The Dimby1 and Dimby5 paddocks are both irrigated cropping systems while the Willows paddock is a dryland cropping system. Table 2: General management practices used in the parameterisation, long-term parameterisation, and scenario simulations, as well as the specific management practices used to represent on-site management in the parameterisation simulations for the Dimby1 paddock for the Merrilong farm. Practice General management used in parameterisation simulations, long-term parameterisation simulations, and in scenarios Specific management used in parameterisation simulations Variety livingston (wheat); buster (sorghum); S71BR (cotton) 14-May to 7-Jul (wheat); 1-Oct to 21-Nov (sorghum); 15-Oct to 15-Nov (cotton) Apply: 120 kg N/ha (wheat); 160 kg N/ha (sorghum); 140 kg N/ha (cotton): N is applied as urea at 50 mm depth Nil – plant into standing stubble Zero till; plant stubble left on paddock after harvest livingston (wheat); buster (sorghum); ; S71BR (cotton) 14-Jul to 28-Jul (wheat); 1-Nov to 21-Nov (sorghum); 15-Oct to 15-Nov (cotton) Apply: 115 kg N/ha (wheat); 138 kg N/ha (sorghum); 138 kg N/ha (cotton): N is applied as urea at 50 mm depth Nil – plant into standing stubble Zero till; plant stubble left on paddock after harvest Sowing date N fertiliser at sowing Tillage Residues Table 3: General management practices used in the parameterisation, long-term parameterisation, and scenario simulations, as well as the specific management practices used to represent on-site management in the parameterisation simulations for the Dimby5 paddock for the Merrilong farm. Practice General management used in parameterisation simulations, long-term parameterisation simulations, and in scenarios Specific management used in parameterisation simulations Variety livingston (wheat); buster (sorghum); hycorn_424 (maize) 14-May to 7-Jul (wheat); 1-Oct to 21-Nov (sorghum); 1-Sep to 14-Nov (maize) Apply: 140 kg N/ha (wheat); 150 kg N/ha (sorghum); 200 kg N/ha (maize): N is applied as urea at 50 mm depth Nil – plant into standing stubble Zero till; plant stubble left on paddock after harvest livingston (wheat); buster (sorghum); hycorn_424 (maize) 21-Jul to 25-Jul (wheat); 7-Nov to 21-Nov (sorghum); 1-Nov to 14-Nov (maize) Apply: 138 kg N/ha (wheat); 138 kg N/ha (sorghum); 138 kg N/ha (maize): N is applied as urea at 50 mm depth Nil – plant into standing stubble Zero till; plant stubble left on paddock after harvest Sowing date N fertiliser at sowing Tillage Residues 114 Table 4: General management practices used in the parameterisation, long-term parameterisation, and scenario simulations, as well as the specific management practices used to represent on-site management in the parameterisation simulations for the Willows paddock for the Merrilong farm. Practice General management used in parameterisation simulations, long-term parameterisation simulations, and in scenarios Specific management used in parameterisation simulations Variety livingston (wheat); buster (sorghum); hyoleic31 (sunflower) 14-May to 7-Jul (wheat); 1-Oct to 21-Nov (sorghum); 1-Sep to 7-Nov (sunflower) Apply: 115 kg N/ha (wheat); 115 kg N/ha (sorghum); 115 kg N/ha (sunflower): N is applied as urea at 50 mm depth Nil – plant into standing stubble Zero till; plant stubble left on paddock after harvest livingston (wheat); buster (sorghum); hyoleic31 (sunflower) 14-May to 7-Jul (wheat); 1-Oct to 21-Nov (sorghum); 1-Sep to 7-Nov (sunflower) Apply: 115 kg N/ha (wheat); 115 kg N/ha (sorghum); 115 kg N/ha (sunflower): N is applied as urea at 50 mm depth Nil – plant into standing stubble Zero till; plant stubble left on paddock after harvest Sowing date N fertiliser at sowing Tillage Residues Biophysical modelling Parameterisation of APSIM to the Dimby1 paddock at Merrilong Parameterisation simulations The crop rotation (Table 1) practiced at the Dimby1 paddock at the Merrilong farm was set up with representative crop management and soil outlined in Tables 1 and 2. Realistic simulated crop yields were obtained for the sorghum, wheat, and cotton crops. Average simulated wheat yield in the general management practice was estimated to be within 0.66 t/ha of the average yield measured at the farm (Figure 1). Average simulated sorghum yield in the general and specific management practices was estimated to be within 0.67 t/ha of the average yield measured at the farm. Average simulated cotton yield in the general and specific management practices was estimated to be within 1.23 bales/ha of the average yield measured at the farm. Regional averages were excluded from the comparison as they were not available for irrigated crops. 115 Figure 1: Average measured crop yield versus average predicted crop yield for the parameterisation simulations using general and specific management for a single wheat-sorghum-sorghum-wheat-cottonwheat crop rotation for the Dimby1 paddock at the Merrilong farm. The simulation was run from 2008 to 2014. Long-term parameterisation simulations Long-term parameterisation simulations used general management practises. Inputs from rainfall and irrigation were simulated to be in balance with the losses from evapotranspiration, runoff, and deep drainage (Figure 2). Soil carbon in the total soil profile (0-1.8 m) was estimated to be relatively stable while soil carbon in the top 0.3 m was predicted to be very slowly increasing (Figure 3). This increase of soil carbon in the top 0.3 m could be attributed to inputs of organic matter from high yielding irrigated crops. 116 Figure 2: Water balance for the long-term parameterisation simulation using general management for a wheat-sorghum-sorghum-wheat-cotton-wheat crop rotation for the Dimby1 paddock at the Merrilong farm. The simulation was run from 1964 to 2014. 117 Figure 3: Total Soil carbon 0-1.8 m (top) and soil carbon 0-0.3 m (bottom) for the long-term parameterisation simulation using general management for a wheat-sorghum-sorghum-wheat-cotton-wheat crop rotation for the Dimby1 paddock at the Merrilong farm. The simulation was run from 1964 to 2014. Modelling of the scenarios Scenarios (described in Section Abating greenhouse gas emissions from soils: Table 3) were applied to the Dimby1 paddock at the Merrilong farm. The No Burn scenario was developed from the parameterisation simulation with the general management practices. It represents the common practice at the site and was considered to be the ‘baseline’ scenario against which all other scenarios were compared. Crop yield, annual nitrous oxide emissions, and soil carbon in the top 0.3 m of the soil for all scenarios are presented in Figures 4, 5 and 6. 118 Figure 4: Crop yield simulated in response to 10 scenarios for a wheat-sorghum-sorghum-wheat-cottonwheat crop rotation for the Dimby1 paddock at the Merrilong farm. Values displayed represent the overall average obtained from simulations with two starting points over 100 years (1914-2013 and 1915-2014). Scenarios are described in Section Abating greenhouse gas emissions from soils: Table 3. Figure 5: Annual simulated emissions of nitrous oxide (N2O-N) in response to 10 scenarios for a wheatsorghum-sorghum-wheat-cotton-wheat crop rotation for the Dimby1 paddock at the Merrilong farm. Values displayed represent the overall average obtained from simulations with two starting points over 100 years (1914-2013 and 1915-2014). Scenarios are described in Section Abating greenhouse gas emissions from soils: Table 3. 119 Figure 6: Soil carbon in the surface 0.3 m of soil simulated in response to 10 scenarios for a wheat-sorghumsorghum-wheat-cotton-wheat crop rotation for the Dimby1 paddock at the Merrilong farm. Values displayed represent the overall average obtained from simulations with two starting points over 100 years (1914-2013 and 1915-2014). Scenarios are described in Section Abating greenhouse gas emissions from soils: Table 3. Differences in the values obtained between alternative scenarios and the No Burn scenario (considered to be the ‘baseline’ practice) are presented for carbon sequestered (0-0.3 m), nitrous oxide emissions (0-1.0 m) and global warming potential (Figure 7). Soil carbon increased considerably compared with the No Burn (‘baseline’) scenario, in scenarios where a summer crop was grown (Summer Crop and Combination). These scenarios both involved relatively large inputs of organic matter in the form of the cowpea residue. Soil carbon was similar to that in the No Burn (‘baseline’) scenario in scenarios where there were smaller inputs of organic matter (Manure, Pasture, and No Burn+N scenarios). Soil carbon decreased in scenarios where stubble was burnt and/or nitrogen fertiliser was reduced. Nitrous oxide emissions increased compared to the No Burn (‘baseline’) scenario in all scenarios where soil organic carbon increased. The increase was very small in the Pasture and Manure scenarios. The increase in nitrous oxide in scenarios where soil organic carbon increased is not surprising, as soil carbon is a substrate for microbes that facilitate nitrous oxide production. Nitrous oxide emissions were reduced in all scenarios where soil organic carbon decreased. 120 The net amount of greenhouse gas abatement resulting from the different scenarios was dominated by changes in nitrous oxide emissions. In the Summer Crop, Combination and No Burn+N scenarios where management practices considerably increased nitrous oxide emissions compared with the No Burn (‘baseline’) scenario, global warming potential increased, irrespective of any increased carbon sequestration. In the Burn, Burn-N and No Burn-N scenarios where management practices reduced nitrous oxide emissions compared with the No Burn (‘baseline’) scenario, net global warming potential reduced compared with the No Burn (‘baseline’) scenario, irrespective of reduced carbon sequestration. Figure 7: Difference between the No Burn (‘baseline’) scenario and alternative scenarios for sequestered carbon (0-0.3 m), nitrous oxide (N2O-N) emissions (0-1.0 m) and net global warming potential (GWP) for a wheat-sorghum-sorghum-wheat-cotton-wheat crop rotation for the Dimby1 paddock at the Merrilong farm. Values displayed represent the overall average obtained from simulations with two starting points over 100 years (1914-2013 and 1915-2014). Scenarios are described in Section Abating greenhouse gas emissions from soils: Table 3. 121 Parameterisation of APSIM to the Dimby5 paddock at Merrilong Parameterisation simulations The crop rotation (Table 1) practiced at the Dimby5 paddock at the Merrilong farm was set up with representative crop management and soil outlined in Tables 1 and 3. Realistic simulated crop yields were obtained for the sorghum, maize, and wheat crops. Average simulated wheat yield in the general and specific management practices was estimated to be within 0.12 t/ha of the average yield measured at the farm (Figure 8). Average simulated sorghum yield in the general and specific management practices was estimated to be within 0.93 t/ha of the average yield measured at the farm. Maize yields were under predicted in both general and specific management. Regional averages were excluded from the comparison as they were not available for irrigated crops. Figure 8: Average measured crop yield versus average predicted crop yield for the general and specific management simulations for a single sorghum-maize-sorghum-wheat-sorghum-wheat crop rotation for the Dimby5 paddock at the Merrilong farm. The simulation was run from 2009 to 2014. Long-term parameterisation simulations Long-term parameterisation simulations used general management practises. Inputs from rainfall and irrigation were simulated to be in balance with the losses from evapotranspiration, runoff, and 122 deep drainage (Figure 9). Soil carbon in the total soil profile (0-1.8 m) was estimated to be relatively stable while soil carbon in the top 0.3 m was predicted to be very slowly increasing (Figure 10). This increase of soil carbon in the top 0.3 m could be attributed to inputs of organic matter from high yielding irrigated crops. Figure 9: Water balance for the long-term parameterisation simulation using general management for a sorghum-maize-sorghum-wheat-sorghum-wheat crop rotation for the Dimby5 paddock at the Merrilong farm. The simulation was run from 1961 to 2014. 123 Figure 10: Soil carbon 0-1.8 m (top) and soil carbon 0-0.3 m (bottom) for the long-term parameterisation simulation using general management for a sorghum-maize-sorghum-wheat-sorghum-wheat crop rotation for the Dimby5 paddock at the Merrilong farm. The simulation was run from 1961 to 2014. Modelling of the scenarios Scenarios (described in Section Abating greenhouse gas emissions from soils: Table 3) were applied to the Dimby5 paddock at the Merrilong farm. The No Burn scenario was developed from the parameterisation simulation with the general management practices. It represents the common practice at the site and was considered to be the ‘baseline’ scenario against which all other scenarios were compared. Crop yield, annual nitrous oxide emissions, and soil carbon in the top 0.3 m of the soil for all scenarios are presented in Figures 11, 12, and 13. 124 Figure 11: Crop yield simulated in response to 10 scenarios for a sorghum-maize-sorghum-wheat-sorghumwheat crop rotation for the Dimby5 paddock at the Merrilong farm. Values displayed represent the overall average obtained from simulations with two starting points over 100 years (1914-2013 and 1915-2014). Scenarios are described in Section Abating greenhouse gas emissions from soils: Table 3. Figure 12: Annual simulated emissions of nitrous oxide (N2O-N) in response to 10 scenarios for a sorghummaize-sorghum-wheat-sorghum-wheat crop rotation for the Dimby5 paddock at the Merrilong farm. Values displayed represent the overall average obtained from simulations with two starting points over 100 years (1914-2013 and 1915-2014). Scenarios are described in Section Abating greenhouse gas emissions from soils: Table 3. 125 Figure 13: Soil carbon in the surface 0.3 m of soil simulated in response to 10 scenarios for a sorghum-maizesorghum-wheat-sorghum-wheat crop rotation for the Dimby5 paddock at the Merrilong farm. Values displayed represent the overall average obtained from simulations with two starting points over 100 years (1914-2013 and 1915-2014). Scenarios are described in Section Abating greenhouse gas emissions from soils: Table 3. Differences in the values obtained between alternative scenarios and the No Burn scenario (considered to be the ‘baseline’ practice) are presented for carbon sequestered (0-0.3 m), nitrous oxide emissions (0-1.0 m) and global warming potential (Figure 14). Soil carbon increased considerably compared with the No Burn (‘baseline’) scenario, in scenarios where a summer crop was grown (Summer Crop and Combination). These scenarios both involved relatively large inputs of organic matter in the form of the cowpea residue. Soil carbon was similar to that in the No Burn (‘baseline’) scenario in scenarios where there were smaller inputs of organic matter (Manure, Pasture, and No Burn+N scenarios). Soil carbon decreased in scenarios where stubble was burnt and/or nitrogen fertiliser was reduced. Nitrous oxide emissions increased compared to the No Burn (‘baseline’) scenario in all scenarios where soil organic carbon increased. The increase was very small in the Pasture and Manure scenarios. The increase in nitrous oxide in scenarios where soil organic carbon increased is not 126 surprising, as soil carbon is a substrate for microbes that facilitate nitrous oxide production. Nitrous oxide emissions were reduced in all scenarios where soil organic carbon decreased. The net amount of greenhouse gas abatement resulting from the different scenarios was dominated by a combination of changes in nitrous oxide emissions and soil carbon storage. In the Summer Crop, Combination and No Burn+N scenarios, where management practices considerably increased nitrous oxide emissions compared with the No Burn (‘baseline’) scenario, global warming potential increased irrespective of any increase in carbon sequestration. In the Burn-N scenario, a reduction in nitrous oxide emissions resulted in a decrease in global warming potential relative to the No Burn (‘baseline’) scenario. (This scenario had a small effect on soil carbon storage.) In the Burn and Burn-N scenarios, net global warming potential was positive initially but decreased over time. 127 Figure 14: Difference between the No Burn (‘baseline’) scenario and alternative scenarios for sequestered carbon (0-0.3 m), nitrous oxide (N2O-N) emissions (0-1.0 m) and net global warming potential (GWP) for a sorghum-maize-sorghum-wheat-sorghum-wheat crop rotation for the Dimby5 paddock at the Merrilong farm. Values displayed represent the overall average obtained from simulations with two starting points over 100 years (1914-2013 and 1915-2014). Scenarios are described in Section Abating greenhouse gas emissions from soils: Table 3. Parameterisation of APSIM to the Willows paddock at Merrilong Parameterisation simulations The crop rotation (Table 1) practiced at the Willows paddock at the Merrilong farm was set up with representative crop management and soil outlined in Tables 1 and 4. Realistic simulated crop yields were obtained for the sorghum, sunflower, and wheat crops. Average simulated wheat yield in the general and specific management practices were estimated to be within 0.16 t/ha of the average yield measured at the farm (Figure 15). Average simulated sorghum and sunflower yield in the 128 general and specific management practices were estimated to be within 0.46 t/ha of the average yield measured at the farm. General and specific management produced very similar yields for all crops. Crop yields were simulated to be above the average regional yields. Figure 15: Average measured crop yield and regional average (1992-2010) crop yield versus average predicted crop yield for the parameterisation simulations using general and specific management for a single wheat-sorghum-sorghum-sunflower-wheat-sorghum crop rotation for the Willows paddock at the Merrilong farm. The simulation was run from 2007 to 2014. Long-term parameterisation simulations Long-term parameterisation simulations used general management practises. Inputs from rainfall were simulated to be in balance with the losses from evapotranspiration, runoff, and deep drainage (Figure 16). Soil carbon in both the total soil profile (0-1.8 m) and in the top 0.3 m was predicted to be very slowly declining (Figure 17). The general management practices included bare fallow periods combined with variable within-crop rainfall. Accordingly, there were low and discontinuous inputs of carbon throughout the simulation which led to an overall net mineralisation of carbon from this soil. 129 Figure 16: Water balance for the long-term parameterisation simulation using general management for a wheat-sorghum-sorghum-sunflower-wheat-sorghum crop rotation for the Willows paddock at the Merrilong farm. The simulation was run from 1959 to 2014. 130 Figure 17: Soil carbon 0-1.8 m (top) and soil carbon 0-0.3 m (bottom) for the long-term parameterisation simulation using general management for a wheat-sorghum-sorghum-sunflower-wheat-sorghum crop rotation for the Willows paddock at the Merrilong farm. The simulation was run from 1959 to 2014. Modelling of the scenarios Scenarios (described in Section Abating greenhouse gas emissions from soils: Table 3) were applied to the Dimby5 paddock at the Merrilong farm. The No Burn scenario was developed from the parameterisation simulation with the general management practices. It represents the common practice at the site and was considered to be the ‘baseline’ scenario against which all other scenarios were compared. Crop yield, annual nitrous oxide emissions, and soil carbon in the top 0.3 m of the soil for all scenarios are presented in Figures 18, 19, and 20. Simulated nitrous oxide emissions were higher at the Willows paddock than at other dryland paddocks in this study as relatively high amounts of fertiliser were applied to the Willows paddock. 131 Figure 18: Crop yield simulated in response to 10 scenarios for a wheat-sorghum-sorghum-sunflower-wheatsorghum crop rotation for the Willows paddock at the Merrilong farm. Values displayed represent the overall average obtained from simulations with two starting points over 100 years (1914-2013 and 19152014). Scenarios are described in Section Abating greenhouse gas emissions from soils: Table 3. Figure 19: Annual simulated emissions of nitrous oxide (N2O-N) in response to 10 scenarios for a wheatsorghum-sorghum-sunflower-wheat-sorghum crop rotation for the Willows paddock at the Merrilong farm. Values displayed represent the overall average obtained from simulations with two starting points over 100 years (1914-2013 and 1915-2014). Scenarios are described in Section Abating greenhouse gas emissions from soils: Table 3. 132 Figure 20: Soil carbon in the surface 0.3 m of soil simulated in response to 10 scenarios for a wheatsorghum-sorghum-sunflower-wheat-sorghum crop rotation for the Willows paddock at the Merrilong farm. Values displayed represent the overall average obtained from simulations with two starting points over 100 years (1914-2013 and 1915-2014). Scenarios are described in Section Abating greenhouse gas emissions from soils: Table 3. Differences in the values obtained between alternative scenarios and the No Burn scenario (considered to be the ‘baseline’ practice) are presented for carbon sequestered (0-0.3 m), nitrous oxide emissions (0-1.0 m) and global warming potential (Figure 21). Soil carbon increased considerably compared with the No Burn (‘baseline’) scenario in scenarios where a summer crop was grown (Summer Crop and Combination scenarios). These scenarios both involved relatively large inputs of organic matter in the form of the cowpea residue. In scenarios with small inputs of organic matter (Manure and Pasture scenarios) soil carbon was only slightly higher than that in the No Burn (‘baseline’) scenario. Soil carbon decreased or was similar to that in the No Burn (‘baseline’) scenario in scenarios where stubble was burnt and/or nitrogen fertiliser was reduced. Nitrous oxide emissions increased compared to the No Burn (‘baseline’) scenario in all scenarios where soil organic carbon increased or additional nitrogen fertiliser was used. The increase in nitrous oxide in scenarios where soil organic carbon increased is not surprising, as soil carbon is a substrate for microbes that facilitate nitrous oxide production. Scenarios with additional nitrogen fertiliser had the highest nitrous oxide emissions. This was driven by the relatively high amounts of nitrogen fertiliser used at this paddock. Nitrous oxide emissions were reduced in all scenarios where nitrogen fertiliser was reduced as well as in the Burn scenario. 133 The net amount of greenhouse gas abatement resulting from the different scenarios was dominated by changes in nitrous oxide emissions. Net global warming potential decreased for the duration of the simulation time frame in scenarios where nitrous oxide emissions were reduced (No Burn-N, Burn-N, and Burn). In the Summer Crop and Combination scenarios where management practices considerably increased soil carbon stocks compared with the No Burn (‘baseline’) scenario, the greenhouse gas abatement provided by the sequestered carbon was greater than the global warming impact of the nitrous oxide emissions for the first 75 years of the simulation period resulting in a small reduction in global warming potential for that period. In scenarios where nitrogen fertiliser was increased or small additions of organic matter were added (Burn+N, No Burn+N, Manure, and Pasture scenarios), there was an increase in net global warming potential. Figure 21: Difference between the No Burn (‘baseline’) scenario and alternative scenarios for sequestered carbon (0-0.3 m), nitrous oxide (N2O-N) emissions (0-1.0 m) and net global warming potential (GWP) for a wheat-sorghum-sorghum-sunflower-wheat-sorghum crop rotation for the Willows paddock at the Merrilong farm. Values displayed represent the overall average obtained from simulations with two starting points over 100 years (1914-2013 and 1915-2014). Scenarios are described in Section Abating greenhouse gas emissions from soils: Table 3. 134 Appendix 7: Warili greenhouse gas abatement simulations Model parameterisation Soils The simulated soils (Table 1) representing the farm soils were based on nearby APSOIL parameterisations. Measured soil organic carbon and pH values were used for the Buttenshaw and Cattleyard paddocks. Table 1: Soil properties used to simulate the Warili farm soils for the Buttenshaw and Cattleyard paddocks. Parameter Buttenshaw Cattleyard APSoil number APSoil name Soil type 190 Parkes Sandy Clay Loam over Heavy Clay 1.09 12 6.5 68 Well drained (0.5) 1.2-1.8 176-225 190 Parkes Sandy Clay Loam over Heavy Clay 1.32 12 6.3 68 Well drained (0.5) 1.2-1.8 176-225 Organic carbon (Total %, 0.00-0.15 m) Soil C:N pH (CaCl2; 0.00-0.15 m) Curve number Drainage Root depth restricted – crop dependant (m) Plant available water capacity – crop dependant (mm) Crop rotation1 WtxWtxCnxWtxxSgCn WtxWtxLnLnxSgCn 1 Wt, wheat; By, barley; Cp, chickpea; Cn, canola; Ot, oats; Ln, lucerne; Fb, faba bean; Sg, sorghum; Ct, cotton; Mz, maize; Sn, sunflower; x, fallow. Climate Rainfall, evaporation, temperature and radiation data were obtained from the SILO climate record (Jeffrey et al., 2001) for the Warroo meteorological station (station number 050020). Average rainfall for the area is 443 mm/yr. Management practices Crop variety, sowing windows, fertiliser rates and application dates, and tillage management practices for (1) the general management practices simulated for the parameterisation simulations, long-term parameterisation simulations, and scenarios, and (2) the specific management for the parameterisation simulations for the Warili farm are described in Tables 2 and 3. The Buttenshaw and Cattleyard paddocks at the Warili farm are both irrigated cropping systems. 135 Table 2: General management practices used in the parameterisation, long-term parameterisation, and scenario simulations, as well as the specific management practices used to represent on-site management in the parameterisation simulations for the Buttenshaw paddock for the Warili farm. Practice General management used in parameterisation simulations, long-term parameterisation simulations, and in scenarios Specific management used in parameterisation simulations Variety livingston (wheat); buster (sorghum); hyola42 (canola) 14-May to 28-Jun (wheat); 14-Oct to 7-Dec (sorghum); 7-Apr to 21-May (canola) livingston (wheat); buster (sorghum); hyola42 (canola) 14-May to 28-Jun (wheat); 7-Dec to 18Dec (sorghum); 7-Apr to 21-May (canola 2010); 7-Apr to 21-May (canola 2014) Apply: 61 kg N/ha (wheat); 10 kg N/ha (sorghum); 61 kg N/ha (canola 2010); 54 kg N/ha (canola 2014): N is applied as urea at 50 mm depth Apply: 58 kg N/ha (wheat); 46 kg N/ha (sorghum); 46 kg N/ha (canola 2010); 106 kg N/ha (canola 2014): N is applied as urea at 50 mm depth Nil – plant into standing stubble Zero till; plant stubble left on paddock after harvest Sowing date N fertiliser at sowing Apply: 65 kg N/ha (wheat); 10 kg N/ha (sorghum); 65 kg N/ha (canola): N is applied as urea at 50 mm depth N fertiliser 40 days after sowing Apply: 60 kg N/ha (wheat); 50 kg N/ha (sorghum); 50 kg N/ha (canola): N is applied as urea at 50 mm depth Tillage Residues Nil – plant into standing stubble Zero till; plant stubble left on paddock after harvest Table 3: General management practices used in the parameterisation, long-term parameterisation, and scenario simulations, as well as the specific management practices used to represent on-site management in the parameterisation simulations Cattleyard paddock for the Warili farm. Practice General management used in parameterisation simulations, long-term parameterisation simulations, and in scenarios Specific management used in parameterisation simulations Variety livingston (wheat); buster (sorghum); hyola42 (canola); trifecta (lucerne) 14-May to 28-Jun (wheat); 14-Oct to 7-Dec (sorghum); 7-Apr to 21-May (canola); 1-Sep to 15-Oct (lucerne) Apply: 65 kg N/ha (wheat); 10 kg N/ha (sorghum); 55 kg N/ha (canola): N is applied as urea at 50 mm depth Apply: 60 kg N/ha (wheat); 50 kg N/ha (canola): N is applied as urea at 50 mm depth Nil – plant into standing stubble Zero till; plant stubble left on paddock after harvest livingston (wheat); buster (sorghum); hyola42 (canola); trifecta (lucerne) 14-May to 28-Jun (wheat); 7-Dec to 18Dec (sorghum); 7-Apr to 21-May (canola); 1-Sep to 15-Oct (lucerne) Apply: 61 kg N/ha (wheat); 10 kg N/ha (sorghum); 54 kg N/ha (canola): N is applied as urea at 50 mm depth Apply: 58 kg N/ha (wheat); 69 kg N/ha (canola): N is applied as urea at 50 mm depth Nil – plant into standing stubble Zero till; plant stubble left on paddock after harvest Sowing date N fertiliser at sowing N fertiliser 40 days after sowing Tillage Residues 136 Biophysical modelling Parameterisation of APSIM to the Buttenshaw paddock at Warili Parameterisation simulations The crop rotation (Table 1) practiced at the Buttenshaw paddock at the Warili farm was set up with representative crop management and soil outlined in Tables 1 and 2. Realistic simulated crop yields were obtained for the canola, sorghum, and wheat crops. Average simulated yield in the general and specific management practices was estimated to be within 1.08 t/ha of the average yield measured at the farm (Figure 1). Regional averages were excluded from the comparison as they were not available for irrigated crops. Figure 1: Average measured crop yield versus average predicted crop yield for the general and specific management simulations for a wheat-wheat-canola-wheat-wheat-fallow-sorghum-canola crop rotation for the Buttenshaw paddock at the Warili farm. The simulation was run from 2007 to 2014. 137 Long-term parameterisation simulations Long-term parameterisation simulations used general management practises. Inputs from rainfall and irrigation were simulated to be in balance with the losses from evapotranspiration, runoff, and deep drainage (Figure 2). Soil carbon in both the total soil profile (0-1.8 m) and in the top 0.3 m was predicted to be very slowly declining (Figure 3). The general management practices included bare fallow periods combined with variable within-crop rainfall. Accordingly, there were low and discontinuous inputs of carbon throughout the simulation which led to an overall net mineralisation of carbon from this soil. Figure 2: Water balance for the long-term parameterisation simulation using general management for a wheat-wheat-canola-wheat-wheat-fallow-sorghum-canola crop rotation for the Buttenshaw paddock at the Warili farm. The simulation was run from 1959 to 2014. 138 Figure 3: Soil carbon 0-1.8 m (top) and soil carbon 0-0.3 m (bottom) for the long-term parameterisation simulation using general management for a wheat-wheat-canola-wheat-wheat-fallow-sorghum-canola crop rotation for the Buttenshaw paddock at the Warili farm. The simulation was run from 1959 to 2014. Modelling of the scenarios Scenarios (described in Section Abating greenhouse gas emissions from soils: Table 3) were applied to the Buttenshaw paddock at the Warili farm. The No Burn scenario was developed from the parameterisation simulation with the general management practices. It represents the common practice at the site and was considered to be the ‘baseline’ scenario against which all other scenarios were compared. Crop yield, annual nitrous oxide emissions, and soil carbon in the top 0.3 m of the soil for all scenarios are presented in Figures 4, 5 and 6. 139 Figure 4: Crop yield simulated in response to 10 scenarios for a wheat-wheat-canola-wheat-wheat-fallowsorghum-canola crop rotation for the Buttenshaw paddock at the Warili farm. Values displayed represent the overall average obtained from simulations with two starting points over 100 years (1914-2013 and 19152014). Scenarios are described in Section Abating greenhouse gas emissions from soils: Table 3. Figure 5: Annual simulated emissions of nitrous oxide (N2O-N) in response to 10 scenarios for a wheatwheat-canola-wheat-wheat-fallow-sorghum-canola crop rotation for the Buttenshaw paddock at the Warili farm. Values displayed represent the overall average obtained from simulations with two starting points over 100 years (1914-2013 and 1915-2014). Scenarios are described in Section Abating greenhouse gas emissions from soils: Table 3. 140 Figure 6: Soil carbon in the surface 0.3 m of soil simulated in response to 10 scenarios for a wheat-wheatcanola-wheat-wheat-fallow-sorghum-canola crop rotation for the Buttenshaw paddock at the Warili farm. Values displayed represent the overall average obtained from simulations with two starting points over 100 years (1914-2013 and 1915-2014). Scenarios are described in Section Abating greenhouse gas emissions from soils: Table 3. Differences in the values obtained between alternative scenarios and the No Burn scenario (considered to be the ‘baseline’ practice) are presented for carbon sequestered (0-0.3 m), nitrous oxide emissions (0-1.0 m) and global warming potential (Figure 7). Soil carbon increased considerably compared with the No Burn (‘baseline’) scenario in scenarios where a summer crop was grown (Summer Crop and Combination scenarios). These scenarios both involved relatively large inputs of organic matter in the form of the cowpea residue. In scenarios with small inputs of organic matter (Manure, Pasture, and No Burn+N scenarios) soil carbon was only slightly higher than that in the No Burn (‘baseline’) scenario. Soil carbon decreased or was similar to that in the No Burn (‘baseline’) scenario where stubble was burnt and/or nitrogen fertiliser was reduced (Burn, Burn+N, Burn-N, and No Burn-N). Nitrous oxide emissions increased compared to the No Burn (‘baseline’) scenario where soil organic carbon increased. The exception to this was the Pasture scenario, where nitrous oxide emissions were similar to the No Burn (‘baseline’) scenario. The increase in nitrous oxide emissions in scenarios where soil organic carbon increased is not surprising, as availability of soil carbon is one of the precursors for nitrous oxide production. Nitrous oxide emissions were reduced in all scenarios where stubble was burnt and/or nitrogen fertiliser was reduced. 141 The net amount of greenhouse gas abatement resulting from the different scenarios was dominated by a combination of changes in soil carbon storage and nitrous oxide emissions. There was limited potential for consistent abatement for this paddock. In scenarios where management practices considerably increased soil carbon stocks compared with the No Burn (‘baseline’) scenario (Summer Crop and Combination), the greenhouse gas abatement provided by the sequestered carbon was greater than the global warming impact caused by the stimulation of the nitrous oxide emissions for the first 60 years of the simulation period, resulting in a reduction in global warming potential for this time period. When the rate of carbon sequestration slowed (after 60 years), the nitrous oxide emissions produced by this scenario led to a net positive global warming potential. In scenarios were nitrogen fertiliser was reduced, global warming potential decreased, but only after 50 - 75 years. Figure 7: Difference between the No Burn (‘baseline’) scenario and alternative scenarios for sequestered carbon (0-0.3 m), nitrous oxide (N2O-N) emissions (0-1.0 m) and net global warming potential (GWP) for a wheat-wheat-canola-wheat-wheat-fallow-sorghum-canola crop rotation for the Buttenshaw paddock at the Warili farm. Values displayed represent the overall average obtained from simulations with two starting points over 100 years (1914-2013 and 1915-2014). Scenarios are described in Section Abating greenhouse gas emissions from soils: Table 3. 142 Parameterisation of APSIM to the Cattleyard paddock at Warili Parameterisation simulations The crop rotation (Table 1) practiced at the Cattleyard paddock at the Warili farm was set up with representative crop management and soil outlined in Tables 1 and 3. Realistic simulated crop yields were obtained for the wheat, sorghum, and canola crops. Average simulated wheat and sorghum yields in the general and specific management practices was estimated to be within 1.11 t/ha of the average yields measured at the farm (Figure 8). Average simulated canola yield was over-simulated in the general and specific management practices (within 1.87 t/ha of the average yields measured at the farm). Note that lucerne yield is not presented as the crop was ‘grazed’. Regional averages were excluded from the comparison as they were not available for irrigated crops. Figure 8: Average measured crop yield versus average predicted crop yield for the general and specific management simulations for a single wheat-wheat-lucerne-fallow-sorghum-canola crop rotation for the Cattleyard paddock at the Warili farm. The simulation was run from 2007 to 2014. Note that lucerne yield is not presented as the crop was ‘grazed’. Long-term parameterisation simulations Long-term parameterisation simulations used general management practises. Inputs from rainfall and irrigation were simulated to be in balance with the losses from evapotranspiration, runoff, and 143 deep drainage (Figure 9). Soil carbon in both the total soil profile (0-1.8 m) and in the top 0.3 m was predicted to be very slowly declining (Figure 10). The general management practices included bare fallow periods combined with variable within-crop rainfall. Accordingly, there were low and discontinuous inputs of carbon throughout the simulation which led to an overall net mineralisation of carbon from this soil. Figure 9: Water balance for the long-term parameterisation simulation using general management for a wheat-wheat-lucerne-fallow-sorghum-canola crop rotation for the Cattleyard paddock at the Warili farm. The simulation was run from 1959 to 2014. 144 Figure 10: Soil carbon 0-1.8 m (top) and soil carbon 0-0.3 m (bottom) for the long-term parameterisation simulation using general management for a wheat-wheat-lucerne-fallow-sorghum-canola crop rotation for the Cattleyard paddock at the Warili farm. The simulation was run from 1959 to 2014. Modelling of the scenarios Scenarios (described in Section Abating greenhouse gas emissions from soils: Table 3) were applied to the Cattleyard paddock at the Warili farm. The No Burn scenario was developed from the parameterisation simulation with the general management practices. It represents the common practice at the site and was considered to be the ‘baseline’ scenario against which all other scenarios were compared. Crop yield, annual nitrous oxide emissions, and soil carbon in the top 0.3 m of the soil for all scenarios are presented in Figures 11, 12 and 13. 145 Figure 11: Crop yield simulated in response to 10 scenarios for a wheat-wheat-lucerne-fallow-sorghumcanola crop rotation for the Cattleyard paddock at the Warili farm. Values displayed represent the overall average obtained from simulations with two starting points over 100 years (1914-2013 and 1915-2014). Note that lucerne yield is not presented as the crop was ‘grazed’. Scenarios are described in Section Abating greenhouse gas emissions from soils: Table 3. Figure 12: Annual simulated emissions of nitrous oxide (N2O-N) in response to 10 scenarios for a wheatwheat-lucerne-fallow-sorghum-canola crop rotation for the Cattleyard paddock at the Warili farm. Values displayed represent the overall average obtained from simulations with two starting points over 100 years (1914-2013 and 1915-2014). Scenarios are described in Section Abating greenhouse gas emissions from soils: Table 3. 146 Figure 13: Soil carbon in the surface 0.3 m of soil simulated in response to 10 scenarios for a wheat-wheatlucerne-fallow-sorghum-canola crop rotation for the Cattleyard paddock at the Warili farm. Values displayed represent the overall average obtained from simulations with two starting points over 100 years (1914-2013 and 1915-2014). Scenarios are described in Section Abating greenhouse gas emissions from soils: Table 3. Differences in the values obtained between alternative scenarios and the No Burn scenario (considered to be the ‘baseline’ practice) are presented for carbon sequestered (0-0.3 m), nitrous oxide emissions (0-1.0 m) and global warming potential (Figure 14). Soil carbon increased considerably compared with the No Burn (‘baseline’) scenario in scenarios where a summer crop was grown (Summer Crop and Combination scenarios). These scenarios both involved relatively large inputs of organic matter in the form of the cowpea residue. In scenarios with small inputs of organic matter (Manure, Pasture, and No Burn+N scenarios) soil carbon was only slightly higher than that in the No Burn (‘baseline’) scenario. Soil carbon decreased or was similar to that in the No Burn (‘baseline’) scenario in scenarios where stubble was burnt and/or nitrogen fertiliser was reduced. Nitrous oxide emissions increased compared to the No Burn (‘baseline’) scenario in scenarios where soil organic carbon increased. The exception to this was the Pasture scenario, where nitrous oxide emissions were similar to the No Burn (‘baseline’) scenario. The increase in nitrous oxide in scenarios where soil organic carbon increased is not surprising, as soil carbon is a substrate for microbes that facilitate nitrous oxide production. The quantity of nitrous oxide emitted was relatively small for an irrigated cropping system. Fertiliser inputs into this paddock were less than for the Buttenshaw 147 paddock. Lucerne grown during the cropping rotation fixed N, reducing the dependence on nitrogen fertiliser. Nitrous oxide emissions were reduced in all scenarios where stubble was burnt and/or nitrogen fertiliser was reduced. The net amount of greenhouse gas abatement resulting from the different scenarios was dominated by a combination of changes in soil carbon storage and nitrous oxide emissions. In scenarios where management practices considerably increased soil carbon stocks compared with the No Burn (‘baseline’) scenario (Summer Crop and Combination), the greenhouse gas abatement provided by the sequestered carbon was greater than the global warming impact caused by the stimulation of the nitrous oxide emissions resulting in a reduction in global warming potential compared with the No Burn (‘baseline’) scenario. The Pasture, Manure and No Burn-N scenarios were also able to provide a small reduction in global warming potential relative to the No Burn (‘baseline’) scenario. Global warming potential was positive relative to the No Burn (‘baseline’) scenario for the majority of the simulation period for scenarios were stubble was burnt and/or nitrogen fertiliser was increased. 148 Figure 14: Difference between the baseline practice and scenarios for sequestered carbon (0-0.3 m), nitrous oxide (N2O-N) emissions and net global warming potential (GWP) for a wheat-wheat-lucerne-fallowsorghum-canola crop rotation for the Cattleyard paddock at the Warili farm. Values displayed represent the overall average obtained from simulations with two starting points over 100 years (1914-2013 and 19152014). Scenarios are described in Section Abating greenhouse gas emissions from soils: Table 3. 149 Appendix 8: Wilgo greenhouse gas abatement simulations Model parameterisation Soils The simulated soils (Table 1) representing the farm soils were based on nearby APSOIL parameterisations. Measured soil organic carbon and pH values were used for the Blackstump and Clearview paddocks. Table 1: Soil properties used to simulate the Wilgo farm soils for the Blackstump and Clearview paddocks. Parameter Blackstump Clearview APSoil number APSoil name Soil type 541-YP Urana Grey Vertosol Organic carbon (Total %, 0.00-0.15 m) Soil C:N pH (CaCl2; 0.00-0.15 m) Curve number Drainage Root depth restricted – crop dependant (m) Plant available water capacity – crop dependant (mm) Crop rotation for the parameterisation simulations1 Crop rotation for the scenarios1 1.01 12 6.5 84 Moderate (0.3) 0.9-1.2 164-251 213 Rand Clay Loam over Clay 1.19 12 6.8 73 Moderate (0.4) 0.9-1.8 106-172 WtxWtxWtxWtxxxCnxWt CnxWtxFbxWt CnxWtxFbxWt CnxWtxFbxWt 1 Wt, wheat; By, barley; Cp, chickpea; Cn, canola; Ot, oats; Ln, lucerne; Fb, faba bean; Sg, sorghum; Ct, cotton; Mz, maize; Sn, sunflower; x, fallow. Climate Rainfall, evaporation, temperature and radiation data were obtained from the SILO climate record (Jeffrey et al., 2001) for the Mulwala Post Office meteorological station (station number 074081). Average rainfall for the area is 502 mm/yr. Management practices The crop rotation for the parameterisation simulations and the long-term parameterisation simulations represented the actual crop rotations grown most recently at the site (Table 1). However, the crop rotation at the Blackstump paddock was not considered sensible for a long-term rotation for the scenarios. Thus a region-appropriate typical crop rotation was simulated for the Blackstump paddock scenarios (Table 1). 150 Crop variety, sowing windows, fertiliser rates and application dates, and tillage management practices for (1) the general management practices simulated for the parameterisation simulations, long-term parameterisation simulations, and scenarios, and (2) the specific management for the parameterisation simulations for Wilgo farm are described in Tables 2 and 3. Table 2: General management practices for the parameterisation simulations and the long-term parameterisation simulations, the specific management used to represent on-site management for the parameterisation simulations, and the general management used for the scenarios for the Blackstump paddock for the Wilgo farm Practice General management for parameterisation simulations and long-term parameterisation simulations Specific management for parameterisation simulations General management for scenarios Variety sunvale (wheat); hyola42 (canola) 21-Apr to 14-Jun (wheat); 14-Apr to 7-Jun (canola) sunvale (wheat); hyola42 (canola) 14-Jun to 28-Jun (wheat); 14Apr to 7-Jun (canola) N fertiliser at sowing Apply: 10 kg N/ha (wheat); 5 kg N/ha (canola): N is applied as urea at 50 mm depth Apply: 6 kg N/ha (wheat); 5 kg N/ha (canola): N is applied as urea at 50 mm depth N fertiliser 40 days after sowing Apply: 40 kg N/ha (wheat); 50 kg N/ha (canola): N is applied as urea at 50 mm depth Apply: 46 kg N/ha (canola): N is applied as urea at 50 mm depth sunvale (wheat); hyola42 (canola) 21-Apr to 14-Jun (wheat); 14-Apr to 7-Jun (canola); 14-Apr to 7-Jun (fababean) Apply: 10 kg N/ha (wheat); 5 kg N/ha (canola); 7 kg N/ha (fababean): N is applied as urea at 50 mm depth Apply: 40 kg N/ha (wheat); 50 kg N/ha (canola): N is applied as urea at 50 mm depth Sowing date N fertiliser on a fixed date Tillage Residues 151 Nil – plant into standing stubble Zero till; plant stubble left on paddock after harvest Apply: 37 kg N/ha (wheat) on 5-jul-2010; 60 kg N/ha (wheat) on 3-jul-2011; 92 kg N/ha (wheat) on 13-jul-2014: N is applied as urea at 50 mm depth Nil – plant into standing stubble Zero till; plant stubble left on paddock after harvest Nil – plant into standing stubble Zero till; plant stubble left on paddock after harvest Table 3: General management practices used in the parameterisation, long-term parameterisation, and scenario simulations, as well as the specific management practices used to represent on-site management in the parameterisation simulations for the Clearview paddock for the Wilgo farm. Practice General management used in parameterisation simulations, long-term parameterisation simulations, and in scenarios Specific management used in parameterisation simulations Variety sunvale (wheat); hyola42 (canola); fiord (fababean) 21-Apr to 14-Jun (wheat); 14-Apr to 7-Jun (canola); 14-Apr to 7-Jun (fababean) Apply: 7 kg N/ha (wheat); 7 kg N/ha (canola) 7 kg N/ha (fababean): N is applied as urea at 50 mm depth Apply: 30 kg N/ha (wheat); 50 kg N/ha (canola): N is applied as urea at 50 mm depth sunvale (wheat); hyola42 (canola); fiord (fababean) 21-Apr to 14-Jun (wheat); 14-Apr to 7-Jun (canola); 14-Apr to 7-Jun (fababean) Apply: 7 kg N/ha (wheat); 7 kg N/ha (canola) 7 kg N/ha (fababean): N is applied as urea at 50 mm depth Apply: 46 kg N/ha (canola): N is applied as urea at 50 mm depth Sowing date N fertiliser at sowing N fertiliser 40 days after sowing N fertiliser on a fixed date Tillage Residues Nil – plant into standing stubble Zero till; plant stubble left on paddock after harvest Apply: 92 kg N/ha (wheat) on 3-jun-2012; 46 kg N/ha (wheat) on 13-jun-2014: N is applied as urea at 50 mm depth Nil – plant into standing stubble Zero till; plant stubble left on paddock after harvest Biophysical modelling Parameterisation of APSIM to the Blackstump paddock at Wilgo Parameterisation simulations The crop rotation (Table 1) practiced at the Blackstump paddock at the Wilgo farm was set up with representative crop management and soil outlined in Tables 1 and 2. Realistic simulated crop yields were obtained for the canola and wheat crops. Average simulated wheat yield in the general management practices was estimated to be within 0.50 t/ha of the average yield measured at the farm (Figure 1). Average simulated canola yield in the general management practices was estimated to be within 0.95 t/ha of the average yield measured at the farm. Average simulated crop yields were simulated to be above the regional average crop yields. 152 Figure 1: Average measured crop yield and regional average (1992-2010) crop yield versus average predicted crop yield for the parameterisation simulations using general and specific management for a single wheatwheat-wheat-wheat-fallow-canola-wheat crop rotation for the Blackstump paddock at the Wilgo farm. The simulation was run from 2007 to 2014. Long-term parameterisation simulations Long-term parameterisation simulations used general management practises. Inputs from rainfall were simulated to be in balance with the losses from evapotranspiration, runoff, and deep drainage (Figure 2). Soil carbon in both the total soil profile (0-1.5 m) and in the top 0.3 m was predicted to be very slowly declining (Figure 3). The general management practices included bare fallow periods combined with variable within-crop rainfall. Accordingly, there were low and discontinuous inputs of carbon throughout the simulation which led to an overall net mineralisation of carbon from this soil. 153 Figure 2: Water balance for the long-term parameterisation simulation using general management for a wheat-wheat-wheat-wheat-fallow-canola-wheat crop rotation for the Blackstump paddock at the Wilgo farm. The simulation was run from 1959 to 2014. 154 Figure 3: Soil carbon 0-1.5 m (top) and soil carbon 0-0.3 m (bottom) for the long-term parameterisation simulation using general management for a wheat-wheat-wheat-wheat-fallow-canola-wheat crop rotation for the Blackstump paddock at the Wilgo farm. The simulation was run from 1959 to 2014. Modelling of the scenarios Scenarios (described in Section Abating greenhouse gas emissions from soils: Table 3) were applied to the Blackstump paddock at the Wilgo farm. The No Burn scenario was developed from the parameterisation simulation with the general management practices. It represents the common practice at the site and was considered to be the ‘baseline’ scenario against which all other scenarios were compared. Crop yield, annual nitrous oxide emissions, and soil carbon in the top 0.3 m of the soil for all scenarios are presented in Figures 4, 5 and 6. 155 Figure 4: Crop yield simulated in response to eight scenarios for a canola-wheat-fababean-wheat crop rotation for the Blackstump paddock at the Wilgo farm. Values displayed represent the overall average obtained from simulations with two starting points over 100 years (1914-2013 and 1915-2014). Scenarios are described in Section Abating greenhouse gas emissions from soils: Table 3. Figure 5: Annual simulated emissions of nitrous oxide (N2O-N) in response to eight scenarios for a canolawheat-fababean-wheat crop rotation for the Blackstump paddock at the Wilgo farm. Values displayed represent the overall average obtained from simulations with two starting points over 100 years (1914-2013 and 1915-2014). Scenarios are described in Section Abating greenhouse gas emissions from soils: Table 3. 156 Figure 6: Soil carbon in the surface 0.3 m of soil simulated in response to eight scenarios for a canola-wheatfababean-wheat crop rotation for the Blackstump paddock at the Wilgo farm. Values displayed represent the overall average obtained from simulations with two starting points over 100 years (1914-2013 and 19152014). Scenarios are described in Section Abating greenhouse gas emissions from soils: Table 3. Differences in the values obtained between alternative scenarios and the No Burn scenario (considered to be the ‘baseline’ practice) are presented for carbon sequestered (0-0.3 m), nitrous oxide emissions (0-1.0 m) and global warming potential (Figure 7). Soil carbon increased in scenarios relative to the No Burn (‘baseline’) scenario when residues were not burnt and increased nitrogen fertiliser was applied, a summer crop was grown, or manure was applied. These scenarios all involved increased inputs of organic matter. Soil carbon decreased in scenarios where stubble was burnt and/or nitrogen fertiliser was reduced. Nitrous oxide emissions increased in the No Burn+N scenario compared to the No Burn (‘baseline’) scenario, were similar to the No Burn (‘baseline’) scenario in the Manure scenario, but reduced in all other scenarios. The net amount of greenhouse gas abatement resulting from the different scenarios was dominated by a combination of changes in soil carbon and nitrous oxide emissions. In the Summer Crop scenario, there was a substantial decrease in global warming potential as this scenario both sequestered carbon and reduced nitrous oxide emissions. In the Manure scenario there was a small 157 decrease in global warming potential due to the small increase of carbon storage. For the first 50 years of the simulation, scenarios where management practices had reduced or similar soil carbon stocks compared with the No Burn (‘baseline’) scenario, net global warming potential increased slightly or was similar to the No Burn (‘baseline’) scenario irrespective of any reduction in nitrous oxide emissions. However, in the last 50 years of the simulation, a very small amount of abatement was provided by scenarios where stubble was burnt and/or nitrogen fertiliser was reduced. Figure 7: Difference between the No Burn (‘baseline’) scenario and alternative scenarios for sequestered carbon (0-0.3 m), nitrous oxide (N2O-N) emissions (0-1.0 m) and net global warming potential (GWP) for a canola-wheat-fababean-wheat crop rotation for the Blackstump paddock at the Wilgo farm. Values displayed represent the overall average obtained from simulations with two starting points over 100 years (1914-2013 and 1915-2014). Scenarios are described in Section Abating greenhouse gas emissions from soils: Table 3. 158 Parameterisation of APSIM to the Clearview paddock at Wilgo Parameterisation simulations The crop rotation (Table 1) practiced at the Clearview paddock at the Wilgo farm was set up with representative crop management and soil outlined in Tables 1 and 3. Realistic simulated crop yields were obtained for the wheat, canola and fababean crops. Average simulated wheat yield in the specific management practices was estimated to be within 0.08 t/ha of the average yield measured at the farm while for the general management practices simulated wheat yield was within 0.77 t/ha (Figure 8). Average simulated canola and fababean yields in the specific management practices was estimated to be within 0.52 t/ha of the average yields measured at the farm. Average simulated crop yields were simulated to be above the regional average crop yields. Figure 8: Average measured crop yield and regional average (1992-2010) crop yield versus average predicted crop yield for the parameterisation simulations using general and specific management for a single canolawheat-fababean-wheat crop rotation for the Clearview paddock at the Wilgo farm. The simulation was run from 2010 to 2014. 159 Long-term parameterisation simulations Long-term parameterisation simulations used general management practises. Inputs from rainfall were simulated to be in balance with the losses from evapotranspiration, runoff, and deep drainage (Figure 9). Soil carbon in both the total soil profile (0-1.8 m) and in the top 0.3 m was predicted to be very slowly declining (Figure 10). The general management practices included bare fallow periods combined with variable within-crop rainfall. Accordingly, there were low and discontinuous inputs of carbon throughout the simulation which led to an overall net mineralisation of carbon from this soil. Figure 9: Water balance for the long-term parameterisation simulation using general management for a canola-wheat-fababean-wheat crop rotation for the Clearview paddock at the Wilgo farm. The simulation was run from 1959 to 2014. 160 Figure 10: Soil carbon 0-1.8 m (top) and soil carbon 0-0.3 m (bottom) for the long-term parameterisation simulation using general management for a canola-wheat-fababean-wheat crop rotation for the Clearview paddock at the Wilgo farm. The simulation was run from 1959 to 2014. Modelling of the scenarios Scenarios (described in Section Abating greenhouse gas emissions from soils: Table 3) were applied to the Clearview paddock at the Wilgo farm. The No Burn scenario was developed from the parameterisation simulation with the general management practices. It represents the common practice at the site and was considered to be the ‘baseline’ scenario against which all other scenarios were compared. Crop yield, annual nitrous oxide emissions, and soil carbon in the top 0.3 m of the soil for all scenarios are presented in Figures 11, 12 and 13. 161 Figure 11: Crop yield simulated in response to eight scenarios for a canola-wheat-fababean-wheat crop rotation for the Clearview paddock at the Wilgo farm. Values displayed represent the overall average obtained from simulations with two starting points over 100 years (1914-2013 and 1915-2014). Scenarios are described in Section Abating greenhouse gas emissions from soils: Table 3. Figure 12: Annual simulated emissions of nitrous oxide (N2O-N) in response to eight scenarios for a canolawheat-fababean-wheat crop rotation for the Clearview paddock at the Wilgo farm. Values displayed represent the overall average obtained from simulations with two starting points over 100 years (1914-2013 and 1915-2014). Scenarios are described in Section Abating greenhouse gas emissions from soils: Table 3. 162 Figure 13: Soil carbon in the surface 0.3 m of soil simulated in response to eight scenarios for a canolawheat-fababean-wheat crop rotation for the Clearview paddock at the Wilgo farm. Values displayed represent the overall average obtained from simulations with two starting points over 100 years (1914-2013 and 1915-2014). Scenarios are described in Section Abating greenhouse gas emissions from soils: Table 3. Differences in the values obtained between alternative scenarios and the No Burn scenario (considered to be the ‘baseline’ practice) are presented for carbon sequestered (0-0.3 m), nitrous oxide emissions (0-1.0 m) and global warming potential (Figure 14). Soil carbon increased in scenarios relative to the No Burn (‘baseline’) scenario when residues were not burnt and increased nitrogen fertiliser was applied, a summer crop was grown, or manure was applied. These scenarios all involved increased inputs of organic matter. Soil carbon decreased in scenarios where stubble was burnt and/or nitrogen fertiliser was reduced. Nitrous oxide emissions increased in the No Burn+N and Manure scenarios compared with the No Burn (‘baseline’) scenario but reduced in all other scenarios. The net amount of greenhouse gas abatement resulting from the different scenarios was dominated by changes in soil carbon and nitrous oxide emissions. In the Summer Crop scenario, there was a substantial decrease in global warming potential as this scenario both sequestered carbon and reduced nitrous oxide emissions. In the Manure scenario there was a small decrease in global warming potential due to a small increase in carbon storage, irrespective of an increase in nitrous 163 oxide emissions. Global warming potential was similar to that in the No Burn (‘baseline’) scenario in all other scenarios. Figure 14: Difference between the No Burn (‘baseline’) scenario and alternative scenarios for sequestered carbon (0-0.3 m), nitrous oxide (N2O-N) emissions (0-1.0 m) and net global warming potential (GWP) for a canola-wheat-fababean-wheat crop rotation for the Clearview paddock at the Wilgo farm. Values displayed represent the overall average obtained from simulations with two starting points over 100 years (1914-2013 and 1915-2014). Scenarios are described in Section Abating greenhouse gas emissions from soils: Table 3. 164 Appendix 9: Eurie Euire greenhouse gas abatement simulations Model parameterisation Soils The simulated soils (Table 1) representing the farm soils were based on nearby APSOIL parameterisations. Measured soil organic carbon and pH values were used for the P4 paddock. Table 1: Soil properties used to simulate the Eurie Eurie farm soils for the P4 paddock. Parameter P4 APSoil number APSoil name Soil type Organic carbon (Total %, 0.00-0.15 m) Soil C:N pH (CaCl2; 0.00-0.15 m) Curve number Drainage Root depth restricted (m) Plant available water capacity – crop dependant (mm) Crop rotation for parameterisation simulations1 Crop rotation for scenario simulations1 126 Merrywinebone Grey vertosol 0.91 12 7.1 84 moderate (0.3) 180 206-263 WtxCpxWtxCpxWtx WtxCpxWtxCpx 1 Wt, wheat; By, barley; Cp, chickpea; Cn, canola; Ot, oats; Ln, lucerne; Fb, faba bean; Sg, sorghum; Ct, cotton; Mz, maize; Sn, sunflower; x, fallow. Climate Rainfall, evaporation, temperature and radiation climate data were obtained from the SILO climate record (Jeffrey et al., 2001) for the Walgett Council meteorological station (station number 52026). Average rainfall for the area is 479 mm/yr. Management practices The crop rotation for the parameterisation simulations, and the long-term parameterisation simulations represented the actual crop rotation grown most recently at the site (Table 1). This crop rotation was modified slightly to be appropriate as a long-term rotation for use in the scenarios simulations (Table 1). Crop variety, sowing windows, fertiliser rates and application dates, and tillage management practices for the Eurie Eurie case study farm are described in Table 2. 165 Table 2: General management practices used in the parameterisation, long-term parameterisation, and scenario simulations, and the specific management practices used to represent on-site management in the parameterisation simulations for the Eurie Eurie farm for the P4 paddock. Practice General management used in parameterisation simulations, long-term parameterisation simulations, and in scenarios Specific management used in parameterisation simulations Variety Sowing date janz (wheat); amethyst (chickpea) 1-May to 21-Jun (wheat); 7-May to 28-Jun (chickpea) N fertiliser at sowing Apply: 40 kg N/ha (wheat); 0 kg N/ha (chickpea): N is applied as urea at 50 mm depth Nil – plant into standing stubble Zero till; plant stubble left on paddock after harvest janz (wheat); amethyst (chickpea) 13-May (wheat2008); 12-Jun (chickpea2009); 30-Apr (wheat2010); 11Jun (chickpea2011) Apply: 0 kg N/ha (wheat); 0 kg N/ha (chickpea) Tillage Residues Nil – plant into standing stubble Zero till; plant stubble left on paddock after harvest Biophysical modelling Parameterisation of APSIM to the P4 paddock at Eurie Eurie Parameterisation simulations The crop rotation (Table 1) practiced at the P4 paddock at the Eurie Eurie farm was set up with representative crop management and soil outlined in Tables 1 and 2. Realistic simulated crop yields were obtained for the wheat and chickpea crops. Average simulated wheat yield in the general and specific management practices was estimated to be within 0.53 t/ha of the average yield measured at the farm (Figure 1). Average simulated chickpea yield in the general and specific management practices was estimated to be within 0.34 t/ha of the average yield measured at the farm. Average simulated crop yields were simulated to be above the regional average crop yields. 166 Figure 1: Average measured crop yield and regional average (1992-2010) crop yield versus average predicted crop yield for the parameterisation simulations using general and specific management for a single wheatchickpea-wheat-chickpea crop rotation for the P4 paddock at the Eurie Eurie farm. The simulation was run from 2007 to 2012. Long-term parameterisation simulations Long-term parameterisation simulations used general management practises. Inputs from rainfall were simulated to be in balance with the losses from evapotranspiration, runoff, and deep drainage (Figure 2). Soil carbon both in the total soil profile and in the top 0.3 m was predicted to be slowly declining under the general management practices scenario (Figure 3). The general management practices included bare fallow periods combined with variable within-crop rainfall. Accordingly, there were low and discontinuous inputs of carbon throughout the simulation which led to an overall net mineralisation of carbon from this soil. 167 Figure 2: Water balance for the long-term parameterisation simulation using general management for a wheat-chickpea-wheat-chickpea crop rotation for the P4 paddock at the Eurie Eurie farm. The simulation was run from 1962 to 2012. 168 Figure 3: Soil carbon 0-1.8 m (top) and soil carbon 0-0.3 m (bottom) for the long-term parameterisation simulation using general management for a wheat-chickpea-wheat-chickpea crop rotation for the P4 paddock at the Eurie Eurie farm. The simulation was run from 1962 to 2012. Modelling of the scenarios Scenarios (described in Section Abating greenhouse gas emissions from soils: Table 3) were applied to the P4 paddock at the Eurie Eurie farm. The No Burn scenario was developed from the parameterisation simulation with the general management practices. It represents the common practice at the site and was considered to be the ‘baseline’ scenario against which all other scenarios were compared. Crop yield, annual nitrous oxide emissions, and soil carbon in the top 0.3 m of the soil for all scenarios are presented in Figures 4, 5 and 6. 169 Figure 4: Crop yield simulated in response to eight scenarios for a wheat-chickpea-wheat-chickpea crop rotation for the P4 paddock at the Eurie Eurie farm. Values displayed represent the overall average obtained from simulations with two starting points over 100 years (1914-2013 and 1915-2014). Scenarios are described in Section Abating greenhouse gas emissions from soils: Table 3. Figure 5: Annual simulated emissions of nitrous oxide (N2O-N) in response to eight scenarios for a wheatchickpea-wheat-chickpea crop rotation for the P4 paddock at the Eurie Eurie farm. Values displayed represent the overall average obtained from simulations with two starting points over 100 years (1914-2013 and 1915-2014). Scenarios are described in Section Abating greenhouse gas emissions from soils: Table 3. 170 Figure 6: Soil carbon in the surface 0.3 m of soil simulated in response to eight scenarios for a wheatchickpea-wheat-chickpea crop rotation for the P4 paddock at the Eurie Eurie farm. Values displayed represent the overall average obtained from simulations with two starting points over 100 years (1914-2013 and 1915-2014). Scenarios are described in Section Abating greenhouse gas emissions from soils: Table 3. Differences in the values obtained between alternative scenarios and the No Burn scenario (considered to be the ‘baseline’ practice) are presented for carbon sequestered (0-0.3 m), nitrous oxide emissions (0-1.0 m) and global warming potential (Figure 7). Soil carbon increased in scenarios relative to the No Burn (‘baseline’) scenario when residues were not burnt and increased nitrogen fertiliser was applied, a summer crop was grown, or manure was applied. The increase was very small for the Manure and No Burn+N fertiliser scenarios. These scenarios all involved increased inputs of organic matter. Soil carbon decreased in scenarios where stubble was burnt and/or nitrogen fertiliser was reduced. Nitrous oxide emissions increased compared to the No Burn (‘baseline’) scenario in all scenarios where soil organic carbon increased and were reduced in all scenarios where soil organic carbon decreased. The increase in nitrous oxide in scenarios where soil organic carbon increased is not surprising, as soil carbon is a substrate for microbes that facilitate nitrous oxide production. The net amount of greenhouse gas abatement resulting from the different scenarios was dominated by changes in soil carbon. In the Summer Crop scenario where management practices considerably 171 increased soil carbon stocks compared with the No Burn (‘baseline’) scenario, the greenhouse gas abatement provided by the sequestered carbon was greater than the global warming impact of the nitrous oxide emissions, resulting in a reduction in net global warming potential. The Manure scenario was also able to provide a small reduction in net global warming potential. In scenarios where management practices considerably reduced soil carbon stocks compared with the No Burn (‘baseline’) scenario (Burn, Burn+N, and Burn-N), net global warming potential increased irrespective of reductions in nitrous oxide emissions. Figure 7: Difference between the No Burn (‘baseline’) scenario and alternative scenarios for sequestered carbon (0-0.3 m), nitrous oxide (N2O-N) emissions (0-1.0 m) and net global warming potential (GWP) for a wheat-chickpea-wheat-chickpea crop rotation for the P4 paddock at the Eurie Eurie farm. Values displayed represent the overall average obtained from simulations with two starting points over 100 years (1914-2013 and 1915-2014). Scenarios are described in Section Abating greenhouse gas emissions from soils: Table 3. 172
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