The Post Rio+20 Agenda
Three Actions Bringing Global Benefits
Joseph Alcamo
Chief Scientist, UNEP
Action 1
Reduce short-lived climate pollutants
Slowing global warming and protecting public health
Joseph Alcamo
Chief Scientist, UNEP
What are short-lived climate pollutants?
Short-lived climate pollutants: Cause global warming &
relatively short-lived in the atmosphere.
Black carbon, methane, tropospheric ozone,
hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs)
Multiple benefits of reducing short-lived climate
pollutants:
• Slow down near-term global warming, reduce regional
impacts of climate change
• Reduce air pollution - Protect health and crops
A package of 16 measures can substantially reduce black
carbon + methane emissions and achieve multiple benefits
Three UNEP studies with scientific
community
1. “Near Term Climate Protection and Clean Air
Benefits”
2. “Global Assessment of Black Carbon and
Tropospheric Ozone”.
3. “HFCs: Critical Link in Protecting Climate and
the Ozone Layer
Emission reductions in 2030 (rel. to BAU)
Methane :  - 40%
Black carbon :  - 80%
Black carbon measures
• Improved stoves
• Upgraded brick kilns
• Particle filters for diesel vehicles
Methane measures
• Recovery from fossil fuel production
(oil & gas production; coal mines)
• Waste / landfill management
No technical breakthroughs.
These measures already implemented in many countries
Cost-effective
How Achieve
Action against short-lived climate pollutants
slows down global warming
Slowing down near term global warming
How much?
16 measures reduce global warming  0.4 - 0.5 oC (2010 - 2050) relative to
reference scenario  almost halving temperature rise
Cannot substitute for CO2 reductions
Need both …
1. Reducing short-lived climate pollutants: slows down
near-term global warming
2. CO2 reductions for long term climate protection
Glacier lake
outburst floods
Air pollution: unfinished business on the sustainable
development agenda
Outdoor air pollution
Progress towards global
environmental goals
(UNEP GEO-5)
“Some progress”
Despite some progress, outdoor air
pollution continues to have serious impacts
on the environment & human health.
About 1.3 (3.7?) million premature deaths each year due to
outside air pollution.
Indoor air pollution
“little or no progress”
“Indoor air pollution from particulate matter continues to have major
health impacts, particularly on women and children.”
• 3 billion people cook and heat using open fires and leaky stoves
burning biomass and coal.
• Around 2 million people die each year prematurely from illness
attributable to indoor air pollution
Source: WHO statistics
Action against short lived climate pollutants
reduces air pollution & saves lives
Premature
mortalities
avoided
in 2030
thousands/year
East Asia +
Pacific
750
thousand
deaths/yr
Africa
200
thousand
deaths/yr
S, W, &
Central
Asia
1.15
million deaths/yr
Reducing black carbon
protects public health
Avoided premature
mortalities (2030) from
outdoor air pollution
Total lives saved globally
= 2.4 million / year
From UNEP (2011)
1.9
How much does it cost?
Costs of implementing 16 measures
50% of black carbon and methane emission reductions:
Low cost or no-cost  Recovery of methane, better fuel efficiency
Black carbon measures
• Improved stoves
• Upgraded brick kilns
• Particle filters for diesel vehicles
Methane measures
• Recovery from fossil fuel production
(coal mines; gas distribution)
• Waste / landfill management
Political action now: the Coalition
Climate and Clean Air Coalition
February, 2012: 6 countries + UNEP
End 2012: 27 countries (+EU) + 23 non-state
partners
Initiatives
1. Reducing Black Carbon Emissions from
Heavy Duty Diesel Vehicles and Engines
2. Mitigating Black Carbon and Other Pollutants
from Brick Production
3. Mitigating SLCPs from the Municipal Solid
Waste Sector
4. Promoting HFC Alternative Technology and
Standards
5. Accelerating Methane and Black Carbon
Reductions from Oil and Natural Gas
Production
6. National Action Plans
Conclusion
Reducing short-lived climate pollutants ...
... An important opportunity to gain global climate
benefits and local public health protection
Action 2
Scale up early warning systems
Protecting people and complementing climate adaptations
Impact of extreme climate events
Climate-related natural disasters
- Floods
- Droughts
- Wind storms
- Forest fires
- Heat waves
 In 2008, over 20 million people displaced by sudden-onset climate-related
disasters. (United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs)
 In 2009, 50 million people affected by extreme weather events
(UN International Strategy for Disaster Reduction)
How to cope with climate-extremes?
ISDR
“Plan C”
Plan A: Mitigate climate change through
emission reductions.
Plan B: Adapt to climate change.
Source: AMMA Project
Plan C: Protect the population through early
warning of climate extremes
Scale up early warning systems
Source: FEWS Net
Many early warning systems
Estimated food security conditions,
3rd Quarter 2012 (July-September)
Many Current Early Warning Systems
FEWS NET USAID Food Early Warning
Alerts/Warnings about individual current
hazards
GDACS Global Disaster Alert and
Coordination System
Alerts about many different current hazards and
disasters
National Hurricane Center
Warnings about imminent hazards
Hurricane conditions 8 October, 2008 10:31 EDT
Source: National Hurricane Center
Many early warning systems
Some shortcomings of current systems
•
Most only deal with one aspect of climate-related risks or hazards,
e.g. heat waves or drought.
•
Most systems have large gaps in geographic coverage
•
Most systems need improvement in how warnings are disseminated to
users and how users respond.
•
Most do not draw (fully) on knowledge from vulnerability research
•
Most systems do not cover the entire early warning landscape from
collection of meteorological data to delivery and response of users.
Climate Early Warning System (CLIM-WARN)
Worldwide climate early warning system
Objectives
Source: CIESIN
1) Integrate fragmented warning systems
(floods, famine, heat waves, wildfires …)
2) Integrate: climate predictions … with vulnerability
studies …with preparedness planning
3) Provide actionable warnings on national/local level 
warnings directly translatable into action by local users
“bridging the last mile”
Source: AMMA Project
Climate Early Warning System (CLIM-WARN)
Feb-Mar-Apr 2011
Now possible to scale up
early warning systems
• Steadily improving mediumterm forecasting
• Global communication
capabilities
US National Weather Prediction Service
• Ability to assess vulnerability
throughout world on districtlevel
Precipitation forecast
(B = below normal)
Issued 16 Sept. 2010
Period of forecast: March-April-May 2011
District-level assessment of
vulnerability to climate change.
O’Brian et al. (2004)
Climate Early Warning System (CLIM-WARN)
CLIM-WARN – UNEP Early Warning Case Study
Objective: Test out idea for end-to-end early warning system
Meteorological
network
Vulnerable
groups
Acquisition +
processing of
data
Uptake of
warnings
Delivery of
warnings
Front End:
Data/meteorology
Preparedness
planning
Back End:
Delivery & uptake
Case studies:
Burkina Faso, Ghana, Kenya
Conclusion
Plan A mitigate
Source: CIESIN
Plan B adapt
Plan C protect
Scale up early warning systems:
End-to-end, multi-hazard, climate-related
early warning systems
Source: AMMA Project
Action 3
Enhance global food security
… through sustainable consumption and production
Food security has many dimensions
World Food Summit (2009): Four pillars of food security:
Availability
Access
Utilization
Stability
But these four pillars have an ecological foundation
And we are undermining this foundation
Society is undermining the ecological foundation
of the food system
Agriculture
Climate impacts  changes in precipitation
+ warmer temperatures
Loss of biodiversity – on-farm, off-farm
Losing agricultural land to other uses: bionergy crops, urban expansion
Loss of land through degradation: 20% of cultivated area degrading
Fisheries
Fish: 10% total calories consumed, but 16% animal protein
Marine fisheries: 53% fully exploited; 32% overexploited (FAO)
Overfishing, habitat destruction (declining coral reefs),
habitat pollution (coastal dead zones), climate impacts
What to do about it?
Towards sustainable food systems:
1. Sustainable agriculture
 Farm-level
 Landscape
 Global
2. Sustainable fisheries
 Marine protected areas
 Reduce/remove “perverse” subsidies
 Find alternative feed for aquaculture
3. Sustainable consumption and
supply chains
Mixed-use, Indonesia (Source: World Bank)
What to do about it?
Towards sustainable food systems:
3. Sustainable consumption & supply chains
Food Loss and Wastage (kg/person-yr)
a. Reduce Food Loss and Wastage
• Public campaign to reduce food waste
Consumer
Production to retail
• Re-examine food quality standards:
Expiry dates?
• Assist smallholder
farmers  set up
centralized produce
storage, processing
b. Move towards a Sustainable
Diet
3 kg grain = 1 kg meat; 1/3 crop area
 livestock
• Encourage standard-setting within the food industry
In developed
• Certify and label “sustainable production” through
countries:
p/p partnerships
• less meat
• Include smallholders in certification and labelling
• more seasonal
programs.
foods
c. Reorient the Food Supply Chain
Whole sys, eff
Conclusions on Food Security
Society undermining the ecological foundation of the world food
system
But many options for sustainable food system + enhancing food
security
- Not only sustainable agriculture, sustainable fisheries
- Also, sustainable consumption & production
Summing Up
Three actions that bring global benefits
1. Reducing short lived climate pollutants  global climate
benefits + local public health protection
2. Scaling up early warning systems  Protecting vulnerable
people worldwide against extreme climate events
3. Enhancing food security through sustainable consumption
and production  Increase food security worldwide + protect the
ecological foundation of the food system.
The Post Rio+20 Agenda
Three Actions Bringing Global Benefits
Joseph Alcamo
Chief Scientist, UNEP