Predictive Maintenance & Service (PdMS) Outline and Value Proposition
Oliver Mainka, Strategic Projects
November 2014
What is “Predictive Analysis”?
 Predictive analysis encompasses a range of analytic techniques
“
… the exploration and analysis, by automatic or semi-automatic
means, of large quantities of data in order to discover meaningful
patterns and rules.”
Gordon Linoff and Michael Berry
Authors of “Data Mining Techniques”
“
… the process of discovering meaningful new correlations, patterns
and trends by sifting through large amounts of data stored in
repositories, using pattern recognition technologies as well as
statistical and mathematical techniques.”
Gartner Group
© 2014 SAP AG or an SAP affiliate company. All rights reserved.
Customer
2
Predictive Analytics Needs (with Consumer Products
samples)
Forecasting
What anomalies
might exist and
conversely what
groupings or clusters
might exist for
specific analysis?
Anomalies
What are the correlations
in the data? What are the
cross-sell and up-sell
opportunities?
Challenges
Relationships
© 2014 SAP AG or an SAP affiliate company. All rights reserved.
How do historical sales, costs, key
performance metrics, and so on,
translate to future performance? How do
predicted results compare with goals?
Key
Influencers
Trends
What are the main
influencers of customer
satisfaction, customer
churn, employee
turnover, and so on,
that impact success?
What are the trends:
historical / emerging, sudden
step changes, unusual
numeric values that impact
the business?
Customer
3
Predictive Maintenance is an Important Building Block for
Improving Failing Assets
Sense
Act
Sensor Data
Business Data
Environmental
Data
Pattern
and
Root
Cause
Analysis
Predictions
Predict
- Create notification
- Alter maintenance schedule
- Preposition spare parts
- Find “bad” suppliers
- Change product specs
- Service scheduling
- Recommend services
- Lower cost for PowerByHour
-…
IT/OT
50 billion
devices connected by
2020*
1/5
IoT
M2M
40-50%
CAGR for M2M market until
2020*
price of sensors, microprocessors
& wireless technologies today vs.
4 years ago**
*Source: Gartner – “Top 10 Tech Trends for 2013” – 2012
**Source: Economist Intelligence Unit – ”The Rise of the Machines” – 2012
© 2014 SAP AG or an SAP affiliate company. All rights reserved.
Source: Gartner
Customer
4
Predictive Maintenance and Service Illustrated:
The P-F Interval Curve
Machine Capability /
Resistance to Failure
“Can”
Preventive Maintenance
& Monitor Condition
Equipment Unusable
Repair or Replace
P Potential Failure
Early Signal 1 – Ultrasonic Energy Detected
Effect of
PdMS
Early Signal 2 – Vibration Analysis Fault
Early Signal 3 - Oil Contamination Detected
Audible Noise
Hot to Touch
Mechanically Loose
“Want”
F Functional Failure
Ancillary Damage
Total
Failure
Time
Cost to Repair
© 2014 SAP AG or an SAP affiliate company. All rights reserved.
Customer
5
SAP HANA Platform
SAP
InfiniteInsight
© 2014 SAP AG or an SAP affiliate company. All rights reserved.
SAP
Lumira
SAP Predictive
Analysis
Customer
6
2013 PdMS Co-Innovation Projects (all OEMs)
Industry
Country
Scope
Automotive
Germany
Manufacturing Quality Assurance by automatic failure identification and anticipation
based on machine data.
Automotive
Germany,
US
Vehicle health prediction to improve manufacturing quality, service planning and
customer satisfaction based on business and telemetry data. Very big data: Hana /
Hadoop
Automotive
Tuning
Germany
Product improvement in R&D based on vehicle test data.
Agricultural
Equipment
US
Early identification of emerging issues for product improvement and failure prediction
to reduce downtime based on business and telemetry data.
Agricultural
Equipment
Germany
Identification and prioritization of machine failure pattern for product improvement
based on business and machine data.
Compressed Air
Equipment
Germany
Machine health prediction to lower service costs and increase machine up-time.
Enable service, sales and R&D to transform the company to an industrial service
provider.
Food Industry
Equipment
Germany
Identification of health finger print based on vibration analysis. Integration of and
monitoring of machine health using failure pattern for product improvement from
business and machine data.
Aerospace
US
Systems trending and alert management framework which allows customer support to
propose alternative maintenance schedules which may avoid unplanned downtime,
increase aircraft availability and increase service and maintenance revenues.
© 2014 SAP AG or an SAP affiliate company. All rights reserved.
Customer
7
2014 PdMS Co-Innovation Projects
Industry
Country
Scope
Aerospace
USA
Aircraft Health Management / work order creation
Mining
Canada
Yield prognosis for wells based on asset measurements
Rail
Italy
Optimized maintenance schedules based on telematics
Chemical
Germany
Data mining of all manufacturing data from assets and production
Aerospace MRO
Switzerland
Root cause analysis / new customer services
Flooring
USA
Relationship between customer warranty cases, production issues, and faulty
machines
Oil & Gas
USA
Lower unneeded preventive maintenance activities; predict breakdowns
Industrial
Equipment
USA
New customer services based on telematics data
Food and
Beverage
USA
Lower downtime of bad actor equipment by root cause analyses and predictions
Started /
Confirmed
Discussing
© 2014 SAP AG or an SAP affiliate company. All rights reserved.
Customer
8
Demo Predictive Maintenance & Services Application
© 2014 SAP AG or an SAP affiliate company. All rights reserved.
Customer
9
Demo “Emerging Issues Detection”
© 2014 SAP AG or an SAP affiliate company. All rights reserved.
Customer
10
Visualizing Sensor / Tag Event Data
© 2014 SAP AG or an SAP affiliate company. All rights reserved.
Customer
11
Correlating Sensor Data and Maintenance Events
© 2014 SAP AG or an SAP affiliate company. All rights reserved.
Customer
12
Vibration Analysis
Identification of health finger
print based on vibration analysis
Trend analysis and pattern
comparison on vibration and
process data
Detect emerging dangerous
vibrations
Change from manual, reactive
vibration analysis process
to an automated, proactive
process
Improvement of machine uptime
and reduction of
maintenance costs.
© 2014 SAP AG or an SAP affiliate company. All rights reserved.
Customer
13
Lower-level machine data analysis
Analyze motor test bed data
Find metal cracks and compare heat signatures
Oven temperature
© 2014 SAP AG or an SAP affiliate company. All rights reserved.
Press force
Press temperature
Customer
14
Association Rules and Decision Trees
© 2014 SAP AG or an SAP affiliate company. All rights reserved.
Customer
15
Practical Example for Association Rules and Decision
Trees
© 2014 SAP AG or an SAP affiliate company. All rights reserved.
Customer
16
Applying Association Rules to New Vehicle Readouts
© 2014 SAP AG or an SAP affiliate company. All rights reserved.
Customer
17
Sample Decision Tree
© 2014 SAP AG or an SAP affiliate company. All rights reserved.
Customer
18
Integrating data from unstructured text
© 2014 SAP AG or an SAP affiliate company. All rights reserved.
Customer
19
Text Cluster Analysis
© 2014 SAP AG or an SAP affiliate company. All rights reserved.
Customer
20
Thank you
Contact information:
Oliver M. Mainka
VP Product Management
[email protected]
+1 (650) 391-4701
© 2014 SAP AG or an SAP affiliate company. All rights reserved.
© 2014 SAP AG or an SAP affiliate company.
All rights reserved.
No part of this publication may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or for any purpose without the express permission of SAP AG or an
SAP affiliate company.
SAP and other SAP products and services mentioned herein as well as their respective logos are trademarks or registered trademarks of SAP AG
(or an SAP affiliate company) in Germany and other countries. Please see http://global12.sap.com/corporate-en/legal/copyright/index.epx for additional
trademark information and notices.
Some software products marketed by SAP AG and its distributors contain proprietary software components of other software vendors.
National product specifications may vary.
These materials are provided by SAP AG or an SAP affiliate company for informational purposes only, without representation or warranty of any kind,
and SAP AG or its affiliated companies shall not be liable for errors or omissions with respect to the materials. The only warranties for SAP AG or
SAP affiliate company products and services are those that are set forth in the express warranty statements accompanying such products and
services, if any. Nothing herein should be construed as constituting an additional warranty.
In particular, SAP AG or its affiliated companies have no obligation to pursue any course of business outlined in this document or any related
presentation, or to develop or release any functionality mentioned therein. This document, or any related presentation, and SAP AG’s or its affiliated
companies’ strategy and possible future developments, products, and/or platform directions and functionality are all subject to change and may be
changed by SAP AG or its affiliated companies at any time for any reason without notice. The information in this document is not a commitment,
promise, or legal obligation to deliver any material, code, or functionality. All forward-looking statements are subject to various risks and uncertainties
that could cause actual results to differ materially from expectations. Readers are cautioned not to place undue reliance on these forward-looking
statements, which speak only as of their dates, and they should not be relied upon in making purchasing decisions.
© 2014 SAP AG or an SAP affiliate company. All rights reserved.
Customer
22
© 2014 SAP AG oder ein SAP-Konzernunternehmen.
Alle Rechte vorbehalten.
Weitergabe und Vervielfältigung dieser Publikation oder von Teilen daraus sind, zu welchem Zweck und in welcher Form auch immer, ohne die
ausdrückliche schriftliche Genehmigung durch SAP AG oder ein SAP-Konzernunternehmen nicht gestattet.
SAP und andere in diesem Dokument erwähnte Produkte und Dienstleistungen von SAP sowie die dazugehörigen Logos sind Marken oder
eingetragene Marken der SAP AG (oder von einem SAP-Konzernunternehmen) in Deutschland und verschiedenen anderen Ländern weltweit.
Weitere Hinweise und Informationen zum Markenrecht finden Sie unter http://global.sap.com/corporate-de/legal/copyright/index.epx.
Die von SAP AG oder deren Vertriebsfirmen angebotenen Softwareprodukte können Softwarekomponenten auch anderer Softwarehersteller enthalten.
Produkte können länderspezifische Unterschiede aufweisen.
Die vorliegenden Unterlagen werden von der SAP AG oder einem SAP-Konzernunternehmen bereitgestellt und dienen ausschließlich zu Informationszwecken. Die SAP AG oder ihre Konzernunternehmen übernehmen keinerlei Haftung oder Gewährleistung für Fehler oder Unvollständigkeiten in
dieser Publikation. Die SAP AG oder ein SAP-Konzernunternehmen steht lediglich für Produkte und Dienstleistungen nach der Maßgabe ein, die in der
Vereinbarung über die jeweiligen Produkte und Dienstleistungen ausdrücklich geregelt ist. Keine der hierin enthaltenen Informationen ist als zusätzliche
Garantie zu interpretieren.
Insbesondere sind die SAP AG oder ihre Konzernunternehmen in keiner Weise verpflichtet, in dieser Publikation oder einer zugehörigen Präsentation
dargestellte Geschäftsabläufe zu verfolgen oder hierin wiedergegebene Funktionen zu entwickeln oder zu veröffentlichen. Diese Publikation oder
eine zugehörige Präsentation, die Strategie und etwaige künftige Entwicklungen, Produkte und/oder Plattformen der SAP AG oder ihrer Konzernunternehmen können von der SAP AG oder ihren Konzernunternehmen jederzeit und ohne Angabe von Gründen unangekündigt geändert werden.
Die in dieser Publikation enthaltenen Informationen stellen keine Zusage, kein Versprechen und keine rechtliche Verpflichtung zur Lieferung von
Material, Code oder Funktionen dar. Sämtliche vorausschauenden Aussagen unterliegen unterschiedlichen Risiken und Unsicherheiten, durch die
die tatsächlichen Ergebnisse von den Erwartungen abweichen können. Die vorausschauenden Aussagen geben die Sicht zu dem Zeitpunkt wieder,
zu dem sie getätigt wurden. Dem Leser wird empfohlen, diesen Aussagen kein übertriebenes Vertrauen zu schenken und sich bei Kaufentscheidungen
nicht auf sie zu stützen.
© 2014 SAP AG or an SAP affiliate company. All rights reserved.
Customer
23