Renewable energy technologies,
2030 and beyond:
And the winners are…
Cédric Philibert
Renewable Energy Division
International Energy Agency
WBG Energy Day, 23 February 2012
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Power from renewables in 2050
18%
ENERGY
TECHNOLOGY
PERSPECTIVES
2010
31%
Scenarios &
Strategies
to 2050
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Renewables provide ½ to ¾ power by 2050
Variable RE 18% to 31%
RE generation in 2050 for key
countries/regions
ENERGY
TECHNOLOGY
PERSPECTIVES
2010
Scenarios &
Strategies
to 2050
The mix varies according to resources
© OECD/IEA - 2010
Emerging challenges: grid integration
Variability is not new, but it does get bigger with
variable renewables (wind power, solar PV)
Demand (MW)
Demand
Demand net of
wind and solar
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Source: Western Wind and Solar Integration Study, GE Energy
NREL (2010)
© for
IEA/OECD
2010
Integration of variable renewable power
Depends on:
 Nature of variable renewables (technospread, time correlations; geo-spread)
 Flexibility of the whole power system
 Four sources of
flexibility:
 Dispatchable
generation
 Storage
 Demand-side
response
 Interconnections
 IEA Flexibility
ASsessment Tool
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[Source: IEA 2011 – Harnessing Variable REnewable power]
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20122010
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2012
Load-matching rather than base-load
 Source: Mills and Cheng, 2011b
Source: Mills and Cheng, 2011
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Solar energy: testing the limits
 A possible vision, under severe climate constraints, if
 Many electricity technologies converging towards
USD100/MWh (incl. CO2) around 2030 [Roadmaps, ETP]
 Cost no longer main limit, but footprint, variability and
convenience issues
 Not necessarily least cost, but affordable options:
 Sunny and dry climates: CSP dominates
 Sunny and wet climates: PV backed by hydro
 Temperate climates: wind power and PV backed by
hydro/pumped-hydro (+ gas-fired balancing plants)
 Assuming efficiency improvements and further electrification
of buildings, industry and transport:
 Under best conditions, solar energy (mostly electricity) could
become a key contributor to the global energy mix
 Some fossil fuels still needed in transport, industry, electricity
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other low-carbon energy options are not available...
 Where are the technical limits to solar energy?
Storage needs for large-scale variable RE
 Hourly/daily storage for PV and wind
 For rare long periods without wind or sun,
better use gas-fired balancing plants
 Inter-seasonal storage in some cases
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2010
OECD/IEA 2012
Solar thermal electricity (CSP)
Source: Torresol Energy
 Key value of STE/CSP is in thermal storage to generate
electricity when needed and match demand
 effective and cheaper than electrical storage
 Sensible heat in molten salts
 Flexible CSP plants allow more wind and PV on the grid!
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Storage solutions for large-scale variable RE
 Small or large, batteries are expensive
 G2V creates new opportunities for load
management. V2G to shave peaks?
 V2G shortens battery lifetime and has a (high) cost
 Pumped-hydro plants the reference solution
 140 GW in service, 50 GW in development
 Other options mostly for shorter time-scales
 Daily/weekly storage does not require large areas
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Source: Inage, 2009.
©
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IEA/OECD2012
2010
New options for pumped-hydro plants
 New and refurbished hydro power plants
 Plants can be developed independent of rivers
 Using the sea as lower reservoir (Okinawa-style)
 Using natural declivity
 Investment costs range: USD 500 to 2000/kW
 LCOE (incl. losses, 10% discount): $110/MWh-shifted
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 No natural slope? Still feasible…
 On flat lands with fresh water, or off shore © IEA/OECD 2010
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In sum…
 Solar, Wind and Water - the largest potentials
 Plus: potential of solar for energy access for all…
 High penetration of variable renewables needs
significant (pumped-hydro) storage capacities…
 With load-management, interconnections, smart
grids, flexible hydro, CSP and fossil plants
 Costs of inter-seasonal storage the true limit?
 Renewable resources and technologies are
there for 30% final energy demand by 2030
 Challenges are economic, financial, administrative,
public acceptance, policy commitments…
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2010
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Hydrogen, an option for interseasonal storage?
 H2 very small, not easy to retain!
 Much easier to use in blend with natural gas
 Variable RE + electrolysis + methanation?
 Economics of variable electrolysis at ambient T°?
 Economics of methanation?
 Overall efficiency – between 17% today and 33%
with more efficient technologies?
 Concentrating sunlight to high temperatures
offers better options to produce hydrogen
 Reform natural gas, gasify biomass, reduce metals
 Solid storage, blend in natural or biogas, liquids…
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